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Impact Raises $725,000 from Exercise of Options
Impact Minerals Limited (ASX:IPT) is pleased to announce that it has raised $724,996.20 from the exercise of its listed options IPTOB that expired on June 2nd 2024. These funds, in addition to the recently completed $3 million placement, will significantly bolster the company’s financial position, ensuring that Impact is fully funded to complete the Pre-Feasibility Study on the Lake Hope High Purity Alumina Project as well as continuing exploration of its other projects (ASX Release May 17th 2024).
Impact’s Managing Director, Dr Mike Jones, said, “Following our recent $3 million placement, which saw substantial participation from major shareholders, we are delighted with the response from our smaller shareholders, over 200 of whom exercised their options in the past month to raise a further $725,000. I believe this underscores the collective strength and commitment of Impact’s shareholders and we appreciate the trust and confidence in our vision as we push forward with the development of the Lake Hope High Purity Alumina project.
This extra funding will also allow us to pursue exploration at the Arkun Strategic and Battery Metals project where we were recently awarded $180,000 in co-funding through the Western Australian Government’s Exploration Incentive Scheme for drilling at the Caligula copper prospect. We are looking to drill there towards the end of the year at the same time as completing the pre-feasibility study on Lake Hope and so shareholders can look forward to strong newsflow in the coming months”.
Click here for the full ASX Release
This article includes content from Impact Minerals, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
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Impact Minerals Limited
Investor Insight
With a mining lease application underway and a scoping study that shows excellent economics, Impact Minerals’ game-changing, advanced Lake Hope high-purity alumina project makes for a compelling investment case.
Overview
Impact Minerals (ASX:IPT) is an exploration and development mining company focused on discovering and developing new resource projects within Australia. Lake Hope, a transformational acquisition by the company and its current flagship asset, is a high-purity alumina (HPA) project in Impact’s home territory of Western Australia, a tier-one jurisdiction.
This advanced-stage project allows the company to fast-track the asset toward development, firmly establishing the company on the road to production and increasing shareholder value.
HPA is a high-value product with various uses in several industries that are key to the transition to a low-carbon world. It is mainly used in LED lighting, micro-LED screens, and ceramic-coated separators in lithium-ion batteries. Both these markets are forecast to grow dramatically over the next decade, and a looming supply shortage is predicted for 2026.
HPA is also necessary for producing synthetic sapphire and scratch-resistant glass. With these ever-widening applications for HPA, demand for this resource is expected to grow from US$3.18 billion to US$12.21 billion by 2030 with a compounded annual growth rate of about 20 percent.
Lake Hope is the company’s current focus as it moves towards production, and where a very shallow, high-grade resource of HPA precursor material has been identified in the top two meters of a dry salt lake. The deposit has unique physical and chemical properties that will allow for inexpensive digging and mining, with transportation to a processing facility off-site in an established industrial area. This will accelerate the approvals processes required to get into production.
With a mining lease application pending, Impact aims to bring Lake Hope, which contains almost 1 million tons of potential HPA, into production when the forecast average price for 4N HPA (99.99 percent Al2O3) and related products is about US$20,000 per ton. The ‘4N’ designation indicates the purity grade, making it suitable for high-tech end uses.
Outstanding economics from the latest scoping study released by the company shows Lake Hope’s potential to be the lowest-cost producer of HPA globally by up to 50 percent.
Lake Hope has a maiden mineral resource estimate (MRE) of 3.5 million tons at 25.1 percent alumina (Al2O3) for a contained 880,000 tons of alumina. The company also received heritage clearances for the entire Lake Hope deposit further de-risking the project and providing another critical component in the company’s application for a mining lease.
Impact completed a bulk sampling and test pits program at the Lake Hope project in December 2023, and later reached a key milestone by producing HPA greater than 99.99 percent (4N) purity from the metallurgical processing of lake clays acquired from Lake Hope.
In February 2024, a new proprietary metallurgical process for producing HPA from the lake clays was identified. Impact produced 99.99 percent (4N) Al2O3 from a low-temperature leach (LTL) process. The LTL process may lower the capital and operating costs to produce HPA compared to the sulphate process which underpinned the recent scoping study. The LTL process will be included in the ongoing pre-feasibility study in parallel with the sulphate process at marginal extra cost to determine the best processing route to HPA. The PFS is due to be completed in late 2024.
A comparison of the LTL process and the sulphate process
The company is well funded to finance the pre-feasibility study at the Lake Hope High Purity Alumina project and exploration activities at the Arkun battery minerals project.
Impact Minerals has been awarded a $2.87 million grant for the commercialisation of its innovative process to produce High Purity Alumina (HPA) from the Lake Hope deposit. The grant is under the Federal Government’s Cooperative Research Centres Projects (CRC-P) program which fosters short-term, industry-led research collaborations. The grant is part of an estimated $6.4 million research and development project to be completed within three years and designed to provide Impact with the relevant information required to complete a definitive feasibility. A key component of the grant funding will be to construct a pilot plant, which is a key goal for 2025, and this will provide consistent material for off-take and qualification trials.
Impact Minerals was also one of the inaugural cohort of seven companies selected to be part of the prestigious BHP Xplor program. BHP Xplor, an accelerator program introduced by BHP in August 2022, is designed to help provide participants with the opportunity to accelerate their growth and the potential to establish a long-term partnership with BHP and its global network of partners.
The BHP Xplor funding was used to identify new target areas for copper and other energy metals around the Broken Hill area in New South Wales, eastern Australia, where Impact has been quietly adding to its ground position for several years.
Additionally, the company is exploring its large Arkun battery metals project, also in Western Australia which covers nearly 2,900 square kilometres. Three new exploration licence applications were submitted recently immediately north of the Arkun project along trend from the recently discovered REE soil geochemistry anomalies at Hyperion, Swordfish and Horseshoe, and the Caligula copper anomaly. These anomalies require drill testing which will occur in 2024 and is an exciting development in the emerging mineral province of southwest WA.
A strong management team with over 50 years of combined industry experience leads the company. With a mining and exploration geology degree, Dr. Mike Jones, managing director, launched a long career consulting and leading mining organizations. Peter Unsworth, the non-executive chairman, has more than 35 years of experience in multiple financial sectors, such as securities industries and wealth management. Paul Ingram, a non-executive director, has led several mining companies since 2003. Impact Minerals has the experience and expertise to lead the company to success.
Company Highlights
- Impact Minerals is an exploration and development mining company focused on rapidly moving its flagship Lake Hope high-purity alumina (HPA) project toward production.
- The Lake Hope project has a high-grade maiden mineral resource estimate (MRE) of 3.5 million tonnes at 25.1 percent alumina (Al2O3), for a contained 880,000 tonnes of alumina that can be converted to HPA.
- HPA is used throughout multiple industries, and the overall HPA market is projected to grow by a CAGR of 18.4 percent by 2030.
- A pre-feasibility study is currently in progress and scheduled to be completed by Q4 2024. A mining lease application for the Lake Hope High Purity Alumina (HPA) was recently lodged with the aim of being granted by 2026.
- The company’s project portfolio also includes assets with high-grade mineral deposits of a range of base, critical and precious metals.
- Impact Mineral’s 2,000-square-mile Arkun nickel-copper-PGE project in Western Australia has produced encouraging assays that motivate further exploration. Maiden drill programmes are planned for early 2025.
- The company is also exploring its Broken Hill copper project in New South Wales following a major grant under the auspices of the BHP Xplor program in 2023..
- A strong management team leads the company with experience in geology, mining and corporate finance.
Key Projects
Lake Hope HPA Project
Impact Minerals’ Lake Hope HPA project is in Western Australia, a tier-one mining jurisdiction. HPA is a crucial component in many new and emerging technologies, creating ongoing demand for high-grade sources. The Lake Hope project is the company’s flagship as it moves toward production.
Project Highlights:
- Maiden Mineral Resource Estimate: A maiden mineral resource of 3.5 million tonnes at 25.1 percent alumina (Al2O3) for a contained 880,000 tonnes of alumina has been defined at the Lake Hope HPA Project. About 88 percent of the resource, or 775,000 tonnes of alumina, is in the higher confidence indicated resource category.
- Amenable to Open-pit Mining: The Lake Hope project is a unique HPA asset amenable to shallow, open-pit mining. The deposit is soft and shallow, allowing for cheap digging and minimal infrastructure requirements. This type of deposit also lowers the environmental footprint of the operation.
- Fast-tracked to Production: A mining lease application is currently underway. Once granted, the company will begin working towards a pre-feasibility study and mini pilot plant. Impact Minerals plans to reach a complete pilot plant by 2026.
- Impressive Results of the 2023 Scoping Study: Outstanding economics show Lake Hope to potentially be the lowest-cost producer of High Purity Alumina (HPA) globally by up to 50 percent. Key outcomes from the scoping study include:
- Annual production of 10,000 tpa of 4N HPA with an initial 25-year mine life
- Annual EBITDA of A$174 million.
- 2 years construction period with 5,000 tonnes of production during the first year, 8,000 tonnes in the second year and 10,000 tonnes of production thereafter.
- US$934 million post-tax NPV8 at an IRR of 55 percent.
- Mining Lease Application: Amining lease application was lodged in mid-2024 over the West Lake resource while a miscellaneous licence application (L63/99) was lodged to cover mine infrastructure and haulage road.
The scoping study was underpinned by a sulphuric acid process allowing the company to achieve a new milestone by producing HPA with purity of more than than 99.99 percent (4N) from the metallurgical processing of lake clays acquired from Lake Hope. The company further identified a new proprietary metallurgical process for producing HPA from the lake clays. Known as the low-temperature leach (LTL) process, this also produced 99.99 percent (4N) Al2O3 and has the potential to lower even further the capital and operating costs to produce HPA compared to the sulphate process. The LTL process will be included in the ongoing pre-feasibility study along with the sulphate process to determine the best processing route to HPA. The PFS is due to be completed in late 2024.
Broken Hill Copper Project
The Broken Hill project has a significant land position of 815 square kilometers and hosts multiple targets with the potential for high-grade copper. Broken Hill is located in New South Wales, Australia, an area known for its prolific silver-lead-zinc mining operations and the giant Broken Hill deposit.
Project Highlights:
- Participant in the BHP Xplor Program: Impact was selected for the BHP Xplor program in 2023 based on its Broken Hill project. The program is designed to allow participants to accelerate growth and establish a long-term partnership with BHP.
- Potential for Additional Minerals and Deposits: As well as copper, the project has significant exploration potential for magmatic nickel-copper-PGE sulphides, and at the time the host rocks were formed, Broken Hill was located close to the world-class nickel-copper-PGE deposit of Jinchuan and the significant Lengquisheng deposit. The project area also has the potential to contain zinc-lead-silver deposits, providing even more value.
Arkun Nickel-Copper-Gold-Lithium-REE Project
The Arkun project is a 2,900-square-kilometer nickel, copper and gold project located in the emerging Ni-Cu-PGE province near the world-class Julimar Ni-Cu-PGE deposit and surrounded by Anglo American Corporation, which secured its ground holding shortly after Impact secured its asset. Anglo-American is one of the world’s top ten mining companies, and their presence in the region brings confidence in the project’s potential.
Project Highlights:
- Additional Exploration Underway: Impact plans follow-up work programs, including drilling, at its priority targets.
- Significant Targets Identified: Recent soil sampling identified two new prospects:
- Hyperion prospect - Located in the northwestern part of the project area returned with rare earth element anomalism of up to 5,880 ppm (0.59 percent) total rare earth oxide (TREO+Y) and neodymium and praseodymium (Nd+Pr) of up to 21 percent.
- Caligula prospect - Initially identified on the roadside, the Caligula prospect is a large and significant target for porphyry copper mineralisation.
- Three New Exploration Licences: Impact applied for three new exploration licences expanding Arkun project along trend from the recently discovered REE soil geochemistry anomalies at Hyperion, Swordfish and Horseshoe as well as the Caligula copper anomaly.
Management Team
Peter Unsworth - Non-executive Chairman
Peter Unsworth, formerly a chartered accountant, has over 35 years of experience in the corporate finance, investment and securities industries and a wealth of management experience with public and private companies. A former executive director with a leading Western Australian stockbroking company, Unsworth has been a director of several public exploration and mining companies. He recently completed a long time serving as chairman of the Western Australian Government-owned Gold Corporation (operator of The Perth Mint). Unsworth is the founding chairman of Impact Minerals.
Dr. Mike Jones - Managing Director
Dr. Mike Jones is the founding managing director of Impact Minerals Limited, which was listed on the Australian Stock Exchange in November 2006. Reporting to the board of directors, he is responsible for the company's performance as it moves towards production at its Lake Hope High Purity Alumina Project and also for implementing strategies to explore and maximize the value of the company's other extensive tenement holdings.
Since listing, he has helped raise more than $60 million to help fund the exploration of Impact’s projects and managed the company through significant adverse events, including the global financial crisis and the Fukushima nuclear disaster, which affected Impact’s considerable investment in the uranium sector, a five-year global downturn in the mining sector and more recently, the COVID-19 pandemic.
Paul Ingram - Non-executive Director
Paul Ingram is a geologist with extensive experience managing major mineral exploration programs for several publicly listed companies and has been involved in the mining sector for over thirty years. He has designed and implemented innovative techniques for exploration in remote areas and has managed projects in countries throughout Australia and East Asia. Ingram has been a director of the following listed companies in the past three years: Polo Resources from January 2008 to January 2011; A-Cap Resources since June 2009; Consolidated Global Investments since September 2006; Caledon Resources from February 2003 to March 2008; and Australian Pacific Coal since March 2011.
Dr Frank Bierlein - Non-executive Director
Dr. Frank Bierlein is a geologist with 30 years of experience as a consultant, researcher, lecturer and industry professional. Bierlein has held exploration and generative geology management positions with QMSD Mining, Qatar Mining, Afmeco Australia and Areva NC, and consulted for, among others, Newmont Gold, Resolute Mining, Goldfields International, Freeport McMoRan, and the International Atomic Energy Agency. He is currently a non-executive director of PNX Metals. He was previously a non-executive director of Gold Australia NL and chaired the advisory board of a Luxembourg-based private equity fund between 2014 and 2021.
Jeffreys Find Gold Mine Gold Sales Exceed $100 Million
- Stage One & Stage Two mining generates more than $100 million in gold sales.
- Auric has received a further $1.5 million interim cash distribution making the total received to date for Stage Two of $8.1 million. This is in addition to the $4.8 million received for Stage One.
- BML advises Stage Two on target to deliver $11-$12 million cash surplus for Auric.
- Stage Two gold sold passes 17,900 ounces.
- Latest gold sold at A$4,625 per ounce, for an average of A$4,024 per ounce.
- Remaining 60,000 tonne parcel to be milled in coming months.
Management Comment
Mr. Mark English, Managing Director:
“The first ore was shovelled at Jeffreys Find in May 2023. In just a couple of years this short-life mine has now generated more than $100 million in gold sales for the Project.
“Before starting we estimated a gold price of A$2,600 an ounce. Who could have envisaged that we would be selling gold at more than A$4,600 an ounce. By any measure it’s a brilliant result.
“However, not all the money is in the bank yet. We are expecting millions more in surplus cash to be received. we are expecting millions more in cash over the next few months.
“For the 2024/25 period, Stage Two of the Project, we’ve produced more than 17,900 ounces of gold with more processing to come. Our partner BML is negotiating a toll milling agreement for a parcel of up 60,000 tonnes, which is currently on the ROM Pad at the mine site. When everything is completed, we will get the final picture on just how successful the Jeffreys Find Gold Mine has been.
“Our JV agreement with BML Ventures stipulates that only after all the gold has been sold and all costs have been paid is the final surplus cash distribution paid.
“We’ve just received a further $1.5 million as an interim payment from BML which brings us to $8.1 million in total for Stage Two payments.
“BML has advised to expect an additional $3 million to $4 million in cash payments once the last of the gold is sold.
“Jeffreys Find Gold Mine has been a defining experience for Auric,” said Mr English.
Photo: The Goodbye Cut at Jeffreys Find Pit. Photo – 27 January 2025.
Through Auric’s joint venture partner BML Ventures Pty Ltd of Kalgoorlie (BML) a total of 17,901 ounces of gold has been sold from Stage Two mining at Jeffreys Find as of 21 February 2025.
Ore was milled in multiple campaigns at The Greenfields Mill, Coolgardie (Greenfields) and at the Three Mile Hill Plant, Coolgardie (Three Mile Hill) during 2024 and early 2025.
For Stage Two the highest gold price achieved was A$4,625 an ounce whilst the average price was A$4,024 per ounce.
Click here for the full ASX Release
This article includes content from Auric Mining, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
Reconnaissance AC Drilling Yield Structural Targets
Editor's Picks: Gold Price Passes US$2,950, Trump Promises Fort Knox Audit
Another week, another gold price record.
The yellow metal rose to a new high once again on Thursday (February 20), moving past the US$2,950 per ounce level for the first time ever.
It's becoming increasingly clear that gold is being pushed higher by a strong base of underlying drivers, as well as day-to-day events.
Taking a look at this week's key news around gold, headlines have centered on a possible audit of Fort Knox, a US Army installation in Kentucky. Fort Knox reportedly holds 147.3 million ounces of gold, but the last-known audit took place in 1953, and in the decades since then questions have been raised about whether it is intact.
The latest audit talk started when tech billionaire Elon Musk responded to a post on X in which a user said it would be "great" to have Musk look into Fort Knox's gold. Musk responded, "Surely it's reviewed at least every year?"
Musk's comment prompted a response from Senator Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who has advocated for increased transparency regarding the gold at Fort Knox for years. He signaled support for an audit with his reply, “Nope. Let’s do it."
The idea has gained traction since then, with President Donald Trump quickly getting behind it — speaking to reporters on Air Force One, he said, "If the gold isn't there, we're going to be very upset."
Fort Knox has been a big story for gold this week, but there are plenty of other developments worth tracking. I spoke with Craig Hemke of TFMetalsReport.com about the continued flow of gold from London to New York, and he suggested that the mainstream narrative that tariffs are driving this move could be wrong.
Instead, he believes the US may be preparing to monetize its gold, and could be bringing the precious metal into the country for that reason. He emphasized that there are many unknowns in this situation, but pointed to recent comments from newly appointed Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent to support this idea.
"Within the next 12 months we're going to monetize the asset side of the US balance sheet for the American people. We're going to put the assets to work, and I think it's going to be very exciting" — US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent
When asked what other under-the-radar issues we may be missing, Craig reminded investors not to forget the importance of central bank gold buying, which remains strong, and physical supply and demand numbers for gold as well as silver.
I'll leave the link to the full interview with Craig in the video description — definitely check it out if you haven't already and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
Bullet briefing — Barrick, Mali resolve disupte, Anglo, Codelco to team up
Barrick, Mali set to resolve dispute
Barrick Gold (TSX:ABX,NYSE:ABX) has reportedly signed a US$438 million deal that would end a dispute over its mining assets in Mali.
According to Reuters, the Mark Bristow-led company is now waiting for Mali's government to issue formal approval. At the time of this recording the approval had not yet come, but it's possible it will have arrived by the time this video is posted.
The dispute between Barrick and Mali has been ongoing for nearly two years, and in November resulted in the suspension of Barrick's Loulo-Gounkoto operation.
Anglo, Codelco to team up in Chile
Anglo American (LSE:AAL,OTCQX:AAUKF) and Chilean state-owned miner Codelco have signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly operate their adjacent copper mines in the country, saying it will boost copper output with little additional capital.
Their joint release states that the arrangement will increase production of the red metal by an average of nearly 120,000 metric tons per year. In total, Anglo and Codelco anticipate generating further value of at least US$5 billion before tax.
The companies expect to enter definitive agreements in the second half of 2025.
On a similar note, Teck Resources (TSX:TECK.A,TSX:TECK.B,NYSE:TECK) Chief Executive Jonathan Price said in a post-earnings conference call that his company is open to collaborating with Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF) on copper in Chile.
“We do recognize the potential value of some form of tie up between those two operations. And it’s something that we’ve done a good deal of work on to understand the various ways in which that value could be unlocked" — Jonathan Price, Teck Resources
Glencore made a bid for Teck in 2023, but ultimately only acquired the company's coal business.
Price said he sees "potential value" in a tie up between Teck's QB2 mine and Glencore's Collahuasi mine, but couldn't share further details on plans.
Want more YouTube content? Check out our expert market commentary playlist, which features interviews with key figures in the resource space. If there's someone you'd like to see us interview, please send an email to cmcleod@investingnews.com.
And don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
6 Mining and Energy Stocks Make Top 10 on 2025 TSX Venture 50 List
The TSX Venture Exchange has released its annual TSX Venture 50 ranking, recognizing the top-performing companies based on share price appreciation, market capitalization growth and Canadian trading value.
Among this year’s top 10 are six companies from the mining and oil and gas sectors.
Read on to learn about the companies and their assets.
1. Sintana Energy (TSXV:SEI)
Sintana Energy, a Canadian oil and natural gas exploration company, secured the third position on the TSX Venture 50.
The company's share price rose an impressive 293 percent in 2024.
Sintana’s primary asset is its ownership interest in the VMM-37 block, located in Colombia’s Magdalena Basin. With offices in Toronto and Dallas, Sintana continues to strengthen its exploration portfolio.
2. Power Metallic Mines (TSXV:PNPN)
Power Metallic Mines ranked fourth overall on the TSX Venture 50 and saw a 365 percent increase in share price.
The company is focused on developing its Nisk project, a high-grade nickel-copper-PGMs-gold-silver asset in Québec, Canada. Nisk spans a 20 kilometer strike length, with multiple high-grade discovery zones.
Power Metallic Mines changed its name from Power Nickel, effective February 21, to better reflect the polymetallic nature of its flagship asset. CEO Terry Lynch emphasized in the announcement that the Lion zone’s high-grade copper, platinum and palladium assays necessitated a rebranding to align with the company's evolving vision.
3. Montage Gold (TSXV:MAU)
Fifth place Montage Gold, which recorded a 193 percent share price appreciation last year, is advancing the Koné gold project in Côte d’Ivoire. The project is regarded as one of Africa’s highest-quality gold assets, boasting a 16 year mine life and an annual production target exceeding 300,000 ounces for the first eight years.
With an all-in sustaining cost of US$998 per ounce, the project is well positioned for economic viability.
Construction began in late 2024, with first gold production anticipated by Q2 2027.
4. Founders Metals (TSXV:FDR)
Canadian exploration company Founders Metals came in sixth place and experienced a 196 percent rise in share price. Founders Metals is focused on the Antino gold project in Suriname’s Guiana Shield.
Covering over 20,000 hectares, Antino hosts a past-producing mine that produced over 500,000 ounces of gold.
The company recently announced a high-grade gold discovery at the Van Gogh prospect, reporting an intersection of 28.5 meters at 7.12 grams per metric ton gold from a 2025 drilling campaign.
5. Q2 Metals (TSXV:QTWO)
Q2 Metals secured ninth place with a 214 percent share price appreciation.
The company is focused on its lithium projects in Québec’s Eeyou Istchee James Bay region.
Last year, the company acquired the Cisco lithium project, which comprises 767 claims across 39,389 hectares. Q2 Metals is also actively advancing the Mia lithium project, which hosts the MIA 1 and MIA 2 lithium occurrences along a 10 kilometer trend. Additionally, it owns the 3,972 hectare Stellar lithium project located near the Mia project.
6. Artemis Gold (TSXV:ARTG)
Artemis Gold rounds out the list in 10th place with a 118 percent share price appreciation. The company is focused on developing the Blackwater mine in BC, which holds a gold resource of over 10 million ounces.
The project has secured key regulatory approvals and is expected to become one of Canada’s largest gold mines. This January, Artemis announced its first gold and silver pour at Blackwater, marking a major milestone.
President and Chief Operating Officer Jeremy Langford noted that the crushing circuit has exceeded nameplate throughput, and the milling circuit is performing as expected. Commercial production remains on track for Q2 2025.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Experts: Battery and Precious Metals Emerging as New Geopolitical Battleground
The rapidly changing metals landscape and where to invest were key themes addressed during the Commodities and Financial Markets session at this year's AME Roundup in Vancouver, BC.
Rowena Alavi-Gunn, senior analyst at Wood Mackenzie, started her presentation “Battery Powerplay — Are Battery Metals Still Investable?” by recounting the challenges battery metals faced in 2024.
“I've picked this topic because battery metals have had a fairly rough 2024," she said.
"We've seen low prices, weak demand, increasing costs — and generally sentiment is maybe sour towards them. And then on top of that, there's geopolitical uncertainty,” Alavi-Gunn noted. Recent election results and weaker-than-expected electric vehicle (EV) demand may also be deterring investors from entering the battery metals sector.
Even so, the broad fundamentals remain positive for key metals like lithium, nickel, cobalt and graphite.
“I think there's an opportunity for countercyclical investment in battery metals,” she explained.
Trump policies threaten US EV growth
Speaking about freshly inaugurated US President Donald Trump, Alavi-Gunn underscored that US EV proliferation could be hampered by the new administration. Trump could ease EV compliance rules, reduce subsidies and impose tariffs on Chinese batteries and Mexican auto imports, making EVs less competitive.
As a result, US plug-in vehicle sales could drop from 30 percent to 20 percent penetration, with hybrids gaining market share. This shift could reduce US battery demand by 20 percent.
However, outside the US the global EV outlook remains largely unchanged.
“Overall, we see very strong growth in EVs going forward,” Alavi-Gunn said, using a chart to illustrate her point. “Plug ins are growing at nearly 10 percent a year. Hybrids are growing at about 6 percent a year.”
While this steady increase in EV purchases is the largest contributing factor for the battery metals sector, each metal also has other end-use segments that offer support.
“We're seeing very strong demand growth across all of the battery metals,” the Wood Mackenzie analyst noted. “Lithium, obviously, is just crazy, but the other battery metals are still growing pretty strong.”
IRA decisions could impact graphite supply
Although Trump’s decisions around the Inflation Reduction Act's EV incentives — in particular the 30D tax credit for new clean vehicles — are expected to have little impact on global battery demand tallies, Alavi-Gunn noted that the graphite market could be impacted by the new administration’s policies.
“We think the US could have quite an impact if they keep the 30D credit in place, but they bring forward graphite inclusion,” she said. She went on to explain that graphite is a crucial component for batteries, with China dominating its supply chain. Currently US sourcing rules don’t require graphite to come from allied countries until 2027.
However, if Trump moves that deadline up, far fewer EVs will qualify for tax credits due to limited compliant supply.
As Alavi-Gunn pointed out, long-term demand for battery metals is bullish, despite a current glut in key markets.
The lithium and nickel markets are oversupplied, driven by surging production in China and Indonesia. This excess has kept prices low, but demand is expected to outpace supply by the 2030s, triggering shortages and price increases.
Cobalt also faces a similar long-term oversupply, though recycling economics could be a risk.
To fulfill the demand growth that Wood Mackenzie is projecting, Alavi-Gunn noted that billions of dollars in new investment will be required, particularly for lithium. She suggested that major mining firms, traditionally focused on iron ore and coal, may need to diversify into battery metals as these legacy commodities shrink in market size.
While lithium and nickel mines generate slightly less revenue than copper, they remain attractive investment opportunities, especially for companies looking to future-proof their portfolios.
This can be achieved through M&A or the development of new greenfield assets.
As Alavi-Gunn explained, lithium and copper assets command high premiums, making new development more cost effective, while nickel is cheaper to acquire than build.
However, greenfield projects come with risks like permitting delays.
She also noted that miners face competing demands for capital, such as shareholder returns, sustainability and diversification. While battery metals offer long-term potential, firms must act now to avoid future shortages.
The current downturn presents a countercyclical investment opportunity ahead of expected supply deficits and price surges in the 2030s, she said.
Canada's pivotal place in global supply chains
Following Alavi-Gunn’s presentation, Emil Kalinowski, director of metals market research at Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX:WPM,NYSE:WPM), took to the stage.
His 20 minute presentation started with a brief overview of the geopolitical and economic forces shaping metals markets, highlighting a disconnect between analyst forecasts and historical trends.
As Kalinowski explained, critical and in-demand resources have become a key front in geopolitical tensions, alongside artificial intelligence, space and strategic waterways like the Black and Red seas.
“The metals and mining space has become a key battleground for the great powers in the world,” he said.
As metal supply chains become increasingly politicized, he believes Canada may be the most influential nation.
“Canada, in my mind, is one of the leaders on deciding who, what and where deals can take place," Kalinowski said. "With respect to national security and economic security, logistics, supply chains — Australia is leading the way when it comes to financing projects, but Canada is getting involved on a geopolitical basis very heavily.”
Although Kalinowski’s comments came the day after Trump's inauguration, they appear to have been prophetic. Since taking office, the president has made numerous comments about the US absorbing Canada as the 51st state.
Trump has cited poor trade negotiations and subsidies as his reasons, but many have questioned the motives behind the proposal, with some speculating that the president would like to access Canada’s mineral wealth.
More recently, the Trump administration has requested US$500 billion in rare earths from Ukraine.
Analyst price predictions clash with supply realities
Switching his focus to gold, Kalinowski noted that despite bullish sentiment in the market and dramatic price increases for the precious metal, some analysts are making bearish projections.
“They are forecasting that gold prices will fall,” he told the audience.
“This is completely off the charts compared to the market and to history. I think they're wrong.”
According to Kalinowski, analyst consensus predictions for gold don’t align with supply projections.
Forecasts suggest a slight annual decline in supply through 2030 — roughly 1 percent per year — putting future supply 2 to 3 percent below historical trends dating back to the Cold War, he explained.
Alternative supply sources like scrap and recycling are also shrinking.
Unlike past decades, when investors and central banks sold off gold, projections for 2030 show these entities will be accumulating instead, reducing available supply and challenging traditional market assumptions.
“So supply is not really explaining why analysts are so bearish,” he said. “Might it be demand? I don't think so.”
In fact, global gold demand surged to an all-time high of 4,974 metric tons in 2024, fueled by strong central bank purchases and rising investment interest, according to the World Gold Council. The combination of record prices and high volumes pushed the total market value of demand to a historic US$382 billion.
Ultimately, Kalinowski attributed analysts' bearish stance on the gold price to their failure to fully account for the supply constraints, the nuanced nature of gold demand and the geopolitical factors that could drive increased buying.
Diverging paths for silver, platinum and palladium
For sister metal silver, the consensus was more optimistic, with analysts predicting long-term price growth.
As Kalinowski pointed out, historical trends suggest the silver price rises over any six year period, but forecasting remains complex. Unlike gold, silver lacks a single price-driving factor, earning its reputation as the “devil’s metal.”
Silver’s extreme financialization — where paper trades vastly outsize physical supply — makes short-term price moves unpredictable. However, long-term demand shifts are clear. Industrial use, especially in solar panels, is set to grow, while speculative demand is expected to decline — though its correlation to gold raises doubts.
Kalinowski added that a key geopolitical wildcard is government stockpiling of silver. Russia recently began adding silver to its reserves, sparking speculation that other nations may follow.
Even a tiny shift in global FOREX reserves into silver could absorb an entire year’s supply.
For Kalinowski, that raises the question: “Could silver become a strategic asset alongside gold?”
He spent the remainder of his time highlighting the seismic shifts occurring in the platinum and palladium markets. With so many supportive fundamentals, analysts are bullish on platinum long term, and the numbers support it.
While total mine supply is expected remain stable, platinum demand is being reshaped, moving away from internal combustion engines and into the hydrogen economy. According to Kalinowski, this transition is expected to drive ongoing supply deficits, with platinum stores reaching a 47 year low.
Palladium, on the other hand, faces a different story. While analysts remain optimistic in the short term, long-term fundamentals for the metal look shaky. A flood of recycled palladium from scrapped gasoline-powered cars — peaking in the mid-2030s — will add massive supply, just as demand declines by 15 percent.
Unlike platinum, palladium has no clear role in the energy transition, raising price concerns long term.
“There is no hydrogen rescue coming for the palladium market; (there is also a) tremendous amount of supply, falling demand (and) price (is) very concerning,” Kalinowski said.
With supply tightening for one and surging for the other, the two metals appear to be on diverging paths — platinum poised for strength, palladium facing pressure.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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