The gold price is maintaining its gains after last week's price breakout, even briefly passing the US$4,400 per ounce level midway through the period.
Silver saw strength as well, pushing past US$66 per ounce for a short time.
Both precious metals are responding to a variety of factors, but at the forefront this week were the latest consumer (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) numbers out of the US.
July CPI was up 3.4 percent year-on-year and 0.1 percent from the previous month, in line with analysts' expectations. Core CPI, which excludes the food and energy categories, rose 2.5 percent from this time last year and 0.2 percent from June.
Meanwhile, PPI for July was unchanged month-on-month and up 4.7 percent from a year ago. The core PPI numbers came in at 0.2 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively.
Taken together, the CPI and PPI data have eased concerns about future interest rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve. So has last week's lackluster July nonfarm payrolls report, which outlines an unexpected loss of 23,000 jobs for the month.
Although new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has been tight-lipped about the central bank's path forward, commentary out of the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting is expected to provide clues.
For now, a key question for investors is whether the summer doldrums are really over for gold and silver. I heard from John Feneck of Feneck Consulting, who said he thinks the bottom is in.
In his view, the current situation is "all predicated by the war and the Fed," and developments related to both are moving in a positive direction. Here's how he explained it:
"The war is shaping up better in terms of the rhetoric, and the Fed is shaping up better because we've gotten Kevin Warsh's first meeting out of the way in June. He just did a second one July 29, so that's positive, right? We're getting to know the the rhythm of the new Fed, and that is something that investors are are needing to see.
"But last week was a great price action week, and (August 10) was another follow-through day. So I think the bottom is in, and the only thing that could really derail that is a heavy situation on the war, right? Where Trump doubles down and really lights up Iran. I just don't see that happening before the November elections here in the US."
Of course, as usual, opinions in the precious metals sector are split.
I also spoke to David Morgan of the Morgan Report, who said that when it comes to silver, there's still room for the white metal to go lower from here:
"I think one of the main questions is silver — has the bottom been reached? And the market appears to have established an important floor near the US$50 level. But I wouldn't declare the correction completely done yet. My working range remains between the low US$50s all the way up to US$90, and until the market demonstrates that it can hold above the upper end, which would be above US$90, we haven't really re-established the bull market per se.
"The recent recovery in the mid-US$60s is very constructive, but silver needs to remain in that range and higher, not merely a short-covering rally, which is taking it to that level currently. So I'm more concerned about how many weeks of activity we stay above, say US$60, than any other technical indicators."
Morgan also shared his year-end price predictions for both silver and gold. He said he's looking for US$78 to US$80 silver, and "somewhere close to US$5,000 gold."
While he admitted that that's a more conservative take compared to others in his peer group, he thinks the metals need to work off the overbought conditions seen at the start of 2026.
Bullet briefing — Barrick/Newmont deal, Northern Star/Elliott clash
Barrick Mining (TSX:ABX,NYSE:B) and Newmont (NYSE:NEM,ASX:NEM) resolved a months-long dispute this week, paving the way for an initial public offering (IPO) of Barrick's North American assets.
Under the major gold miners' amended agreement, excluded properties, including Barrick's Fourmile and Newmont’s Fiberline and Mike developments, will be added to the companies' Nevada Gold Mines joint venture. Newmont will also pay Barrick US$1.95 billion.
According to Barrick, its North American IPO is now on track for completion by the end of the year, with Mark Hill set to take the helm as CEO.
The company believes the separation will unlock the value of its North American assets, but the plan is facing opposition from shareholders who are concerned about dilution, as well as Chair Mark Thornton's leadership strategy at Barrick.
Northern Star, Elliott clash
Australian gold miner Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST,OTCPL:NESRF) continues to clash with Elliott Investment Management, which has been calling for major changes at the company since June.
Elliott currently holds a 5.6 percent stake in Northern Star, and this week put forward six director candidates that it said would be able to help complete a "strategic and operational review."
Northern Star responded in its own release, saying that it has been overhauling its board since before Elliott came onto the scene, also noting that the process Elliott has been using to suggest directors "would be at odds with appropriate governance."
Elliott's criticisms of Northern Star include asset underperformance during a strong gold price environment. The company is due to change CEOs in early October.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
