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Investing Guides
Bankable Feasibility Study for the Australian Vanadium Project
April 06, 2022
Feasibility Study results reflect the Australian Vanadium Project’s value as a critical and battery mineral project and provides a strong commercial case for development.
PROJECT HIGHLIGHTS
- AVL’s Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS) confirms the Australian Vanadium Project as a potential globally significant primary vanadium producer targeting critical mineral, steel and energy storage markets.
- Australian Government grant of A$49M awarded under the Modern Manufacturing Initiative Collaboration Stream1 to support the Project to production.
- Technical studies completed, including three years of extensive piloting testwork, supporting robust processing flowsheets, de-risking the Project towards funding and delivery.
- Pre-tax NPV7.5 of A$833M and equity IRR 20.6% based on US$10.50/lb V2O5 price, A$604M upfront pre-production capital excluding contingency.
- Updated Ore Reserve of 30.9Mt at 1.09% V2O5 comprised of a Proved Reserve of 10.5Mt at 1.11% V2O5 (vanadium pentoxide) and a Probable Reserve of 20.4Mt at 1.07% V2O5 2 .
- Anticipated initial mine life of 25 years, supporting a long-life, consistent ore feed operation on AVL’s granted mining lease.
- Strategic separation of processing plant from minesite and concentrator allows access to competitive natural gas near Geraldton, local workforce and Iron Titanium (FeTi) coproduct sales opportunities through the Port of Geraldton.
- Average annual vanadium production of 24.7 Mlbs V2O5 (11,200t) as a 99.5% V2O5 high purity flake and 900,000 dry tonnes per annum of FeTi coproduct.
- Forecast vanadium recovery to concentrate of 74.2% life of mine, supported by pilot testing and comparable to current international primary vanadium operations.
- Innovative process flowsheet recovers 90% of vanadium in concentrate, utilising tried-andtested grate kiln technology, with valuable reductions in gas consumption and CO2 emissions.
- Approvals well advanced and Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) standards and action plans in place.
- Global critical mineral vanadium market seeing strong growth in demand and pricing (currently over US$12/lb V2O5) with the battery sector showing accelerated uptake in vanadium redox flow batteries.
FINANCIAL OUTCOMES
- Wood Australia Pty Ltd (Wood), a leading engineering firm with valuable expertise in vanadium and similar mineral processing, has undertaken the engineering and design, providing an overall accuracy for the capital and operating cost estimates of ±15%.
- Level of study provides a basis for engagement with financing institutions including NAIF, Export Finance Australia and many of the international resource banks.
- Australian Government grant of A$49M awarded under the Modern Manufacturing Initiative Collaboration Stream1 provides strong additional support to Project funding requirements.
- Project pre-tax NPV7.5 of A$833M.
- Equity Project IRR 20.6%.
- Project payback of 7.3 years after first production.
- Project annual EBITDA average for 25 years of A$175M.
- Total Project EBITDA of $4.4B.
- Upside case offers pre-tax NPV7.5 of $1,287M assuming US$12/lb V2O5 price. This increases to $1,450M with additional improvements in operating expense of 10%.
- C1 operating cost of US$4.43/lb V2O5 competitive with world primary vanadium producers, includes FeTi coproduct credit.
- Pre-production plant and associated infrastructure capital cost of US$435M (A$604M), excluding any grant payments and before contingency.
Assumptions 0.72 USD/1 AUD | US$10.50/lb long term average V2O5 price | cost estimation at ±15% level of accuracy | All $ figures are A$ unless stated otherwise
Managing Director Vincent Algar comments, “The high standard of feasibility study that the AVL team and its consultants have completed is a significant milestone for the Company. The positive economic results of the study have occurred in an environment of global inflationary pressure, COVID-19 related impacts and geopolitical instability. We have attempted to accommodate potential areas of challenge by building them into our assumptions and remaining agile when efficiency opportunities present. The award of the $49M MMI grant provides further vindication of the importance and relevance of the Australian Vanadium Project and we acknowledge the responsibility placed upon us, as all Australians are now stakeholders in our work. We are in a period of growing demand for vanadium from both steel and energy storage markets. The robust designs and financials presented in this work firm the pathway to new vanadium production and sets the Project apart as the most advanced new primary vanadium project globally. The thorough study process has reduced risks and therefore increased confidence for parties looking to invest in the future of vanadium from a stable mining region. The Company is now in a position to progress through funding, final engineering, procurement, construction and into production.”
Click here for the full ASX Release
This article includes content from Australian Vanadium Limited, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
AVL:AU
03 February
Australian Vanadium Asset Gets Green Energy Major Project Status
Australian Vanadium (ASX:AVL,OTC Pink:ATVVF) announced its asset has been selected as a lead agency advice and support project under the Western Australian government’s new Lead Agency Framework.
In a January 29 release, the company said the framework falls under the government’s Green Energy Major Projects group, established in December 2024 as “the first point of contact for green energy projects in Western Australia.”
State government agencies will work together under the projects group to streamline approvals, developing clear assessment pathways and providing support for project proponents and investors.
“Being recognised under the Western Australian Government’s Lead Agency Framework is a significant development for (our company), highlighting (our) project’s importance in Australia’s energy transition,” said CEO Grahan Arvidson.
Located in Western Australia's Murchison province approximately 43 kilometres south of the mining town of Meekatharra, Australian Vanadium’s namesake project is set to unlock domestic vanadium production.
The company states on its website that the project is one of the largest and highest-grade vanadium deposits being developed globally. According to a resource estimate released by Australian Vanadium this past May, the total resource for the project stands at 395.4 million tonnes at 0.77 percent vanadium pentoxide.
The Australian Vanadium project has received government recognition in the past — in March 2022, the company was granted development funding of AU$49 million from the federal government.
Last month, the firm received environmental approval from the Western Australian government for its Gabanintha vanadium project, which is also located in the state's Murchison province.
Both properties fall under the company’s strategy to align with the Australian government’s "Future Made in Australia" plan, which is geared toward domestic manufacturing and the transition to a net-zero economy.
“We look forward to collaborating with the government to accelerate project development and deliver lasting benefits to Australia’s economy and clean energy future," Arvidson said.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Australia for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Gabrielle de la Cruz, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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16 January
Vanadium Market Forecast: Top Trends for Vanadium in 2025
The vanadium market is set to shift in 2025, driven by demand from the energy storage and steel sectors.
Energy storage systems that utilize vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs) are gaining traction as renewable energy deployment accelerates, boosting demand for high-purity vanadium. However, global supply remains constrained due to limited mining projects and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in China and Russia, key producers.
Environmental regulations and advances in recycling technology may also influence supply dynamics, and market observers are watching potential price volatility tied to steel demand, the largest end use of vanadium globally.
In September 2024, China introduced new rebar standards that are anticipated to boost high-quality vanadium demand.
“Production of rebar with the new standards will increase per annum vanadium nitrogen consumption by roughly 15 percent,” a July Fastmarkets report notes. “That calculation is based on China’s 2023 rebar production volume.”
“Vanadium demand in steel alloys will rise in 2025 due to change in Chinese rebar standards. However, expected demand rise in steel will not be as high as estimated from battery manufacturing in the medium term due to slowdown in the Chinese construction industry,” said Piyush Goel, commodities consultant at CRU Group, via email.
“Vanadium demand in batteries is estimated to rise rapidly; this rise in demand will primarily come from China due to targeted government policies towards VRFBs," he told the Investing News Network (INN).
China, which is the leading producer of vanadium, is also expected to drive global demand in the year ahead.
“Rise in vanadium demand in the medium term (til 2029) is estimated to be heavily concentrated in China, because we estimate VRFB demand to pick up faster in China compared to other regions,” he said. “Similarly, Chinese rebar standards also changed — requiring higher-vanadium-intensity steel. Due to the rapid rise in domestic vanadium demand, China is likely to become a net importer of vanadium as the Chinese market goes into deficit from surplus.”
Vanadium demand faces rebar challenges, with limited boost from batteries
Even though Fastmarkets is calling for a 15 percent uptick in vanadium demand for rebar, this will only bring demand back up to previous levels. As Erik Sardain, principal analyst for Project Blue, explained, China’s weak construction market has caused a 15 percent year-on-year decline in domestic rebar construction.
Despite positivity in the VRFB space, Sardain doesn’t expect this to offset lower rebar demand.
“No, no, no, no, absolutely not. If you want to look worldwide, you can say that steel in general is something like 90 percent (of vanadium demand),” Sardain said in a December interview with INN.
The expert went on to point out that quantifying the amount of vanadium used in batteries and energy storage is challenging. He also questioned demand trend forecasts from the battery segment.
“I think the market got it wrong for one main reason, because the market is assuming that the vanadium redox battery for the storage system is going to be something worldwide,” he said.
“And at Project Blue, we don't think it's going to be global. We think it's going to be primarily China.”
He attributes this to the types of installations utilizing VRFB energy storage systems, telling INN that China is using the technology to power grids, while other countries are using it for small-scale applications.
Taking a more optimistic and long-term view, CRU’s Goel sees more viability in the battery and energy storage segments.
“VRFBs will have a considerable impact on the vanadium industry through the next two decades, but will play a minor role in the energy storage space — accounting for only 3.5 percent of total battery energy storage installations by 2035,” said Goel. “Although VRFBs will make up a small portion of total energy storage, they are significant consumers of vanadium and will consume the majority of global vanadium in 2035, compared to ~6 percent in 2024."
Supply picture blurred by geopolitics
As the Russia-Ukraine war continues and tensions between the US and China grow, many metals have faced volatility. These disruptions have impacted global markets, spurring policymakers to fast track new supply chains.
China’s restrictions on gallium and germanium exports in August 2023 escalated to a complete ban on shipments to the US in December 2024, intensifying global supply concerns.
Potential export caps and tariffs threaten to disrupt already fragile supply chains; however, Goel told INN that he doesn’t foresee these issues impacting the vanadium market.
“Similar trade restrictions are unlikely in vanadium, as most of the recent rise in vanadium demand is coming from China, which means China is likely to become a net importer if no new capacity is opened,” he said.
“This also means that should China become import reliant for a meaningful share of vanadium, which is to be used in two significant national industries (steel and energy storage), vanadium will move up in criticality matrices for China — moving nearer to materials like iron ore, potash and high-purity quartz.”
As demand in China picks up, Sardain anticipates the Asian nation will ramp up production. “With the current geopolitical environment, there is absolutely no way that China is going to rely on imports of vanadium,” he noted.
According to Goel, China isn’t the only country that is looking to be less reliant on imports. “Governments worldwide have recognized vanadium as a critical mineral, leading to increased support for emerging vanadium projects,” he said.
He referenced Australian company Vecco Group, which received an AU$3.8 million grant to advance the feasibility and design of a high-purity vanadium project in Brisbane.
“However, such grants are not enough to bring a project from conception to production. The current low vanadium pricing environment is a barrier to increasing ex-China capacity,” he added.
Australia to dominate growing vanadium supply capacity
While China will dominate the vanadium narrative in 2025, Australia is positioning to become a production hub.
In addition to getting its AU$3.8 million grant, Vecco’s project was granted coordinated project status by the Queensland government this past July. The status designation streamlines approvals for major developments with significant impacts, centralizing assessments and enabling public consultation.
In late December, explorer and developer QEM (ASX:QEM) also received coordinated project status from Queensland for its Julia Creek vanadium and energy project. According to a July release, a scoping study completed for Julia Creek affirms the company’s aim to produce approximately 10,571 metric tons of 99.95 percent pure vanadium pentoxide and 313 million liters of transport fuel annually over a 30 year mine life.
In mid-January, Australian Vanadium (ASX:AVL,OTC Pink:ATVVF) was granted environmental approval for its Gabanintha vanadium project in Western Australia. The approval covers a mine, concentrator, processing plant and supporting infrastructure, including a bore field and camp. The company is updating its optimized feasibility study to integrate Gabanintha into its Australian Vanadium project, one of the largest and highest-grade vanadium deposits.
How will the vanadium price perform in 2025?
Underscoring the weakness in the vanadium market, Sardain recounted factors impeding price growth.
He explained that despite several elements that should have boosted demand, the market remains surprisingly weak. Chinese monetary stimulus measures and stricter rebar standard enforcement failed to drive prices higher.
Russian vanadium pentoxide exports to China have dried up, and supply uncertainties persist in South Africa.
These conditions, which typically would have supported price increases for the battery metal, have instead had little impact, highlighting the subdued demand, especially in China.
“To be really honest, I was expecting the market to pick up in the second half of 2024,” he said.
“I was expecting this to happen, because I was looking at the interest rate in Europe, the (European Central Bank) cutting interest rates. I was expecting some kind of recovery for the European economy. I was expecting the Chinese government to be more proactive. I was expecting the property market in China to stabilize. So I was expecting some kind of rebound in the second half, which didn't take place," Sardain explained to INN.
Although the market didn’t perform to expectations in 2024, he sees promise in the months ahead.
“I think that the market is currently bottoming out. I believe that we are very close to the stabilization of the property market in China. Whether it's going to happen in Q1 or Q2 I don't know, but maybe (there will be) some kind of very, very, very mild recovery in the second half (of the year),” he said.
Highlighting the market’s positive fundamentals, CRU’s Goel said he sees a price rebound in 2025.
“We are estimating a global supply deficit in 2025 due to change in rebar standards and rise in vanadium battery demand, causing vanadium prices to rise,” said Goel. “As more supply comes online in 2026 and 2027, by 2027 vanadium prices will come down when compared to 2025 prices, but crucially remain higher than the pricing in the last 12 months.”
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
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15 January
Australian Vanadium's Gabanintha Project Receives Environmental Approval
Australian Vanadium (ASX:AVL,OTC Pink:ATVVF) announced on Monday (January 13) that its Gabanintha vanadium project has received environmental approval from the Western Australian government.
The company said that Reece Whitby, the state's environment minister, has approved the implementation of Gabanintha under section 45 of the Environmental Protection Act 1986 (WA).
“This approval marks a major milestone for the Company, advancing the project towards construction and production while strengthening our confidence in securing the remaining approvals needed to move forward with the consolidated Australian Vanadium Project,” said Australian Vanadium CEO Graham Arvidson in a release.
The approval encompasses a mine, concentrator, processing plant and other key infrastructure, including a bore field and camp. The company is working on optimised feasibility study (OFS) to incorporate Gabanintha into its Australian Vanadium project, which says is among the largest and highest-grade vanadium deposits.
Australian Vanadium intends to produce vanadium concentrate at Gabanintha, with high-purity vanadium oxides and an iron concentrate co-product produced at a planned processing plant in Tenindewa.
Located in the Murchison province approximately 43 kilometres south of Meekatharra in Western Australia, the Australian Vanadium project holds 395.4 million tonnes at 0.77 percent vanadium pentoxide.
The OFS will outline the potential economic benefits of an integrated project. It will be informed by preceding trade-off studies to determine the preferred project development pathway, mine scheduling and processing plant location.
The company notes that its strategy fits in with the Australian government's Future Made in Australia plan, which is geared at supporting Australia’s transition to a net-zero economy and increasing Australian manufacturing.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Australia for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Gabrielle de la Cruz, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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23 December 2024
QEM’s Julia Creek Vanadium Asset Gets Coordinated Project Status in Queensland
Explorer and developer QEM (ASX:QEM) said on Monday (December 23) that its Julia Creek vanadium and energy project has received coordinated project status from Queensland’s Office of the Coordinator-General.
According to QEM, the declaration will allow the office to facilitate regulatory approvals.
The company has been working for the last 24 months on environmental baselines needed for Julia Creek's environmental impact statement (EIS), and will now start preparing draft terms of reference for the EIS.
“Coordinated Project status is another major milestone for QEM and I welcome the ongoing support from the Queensland Government for new and expanded mining opportunities and high-value industries, particularly in regional Queensland,” said QEM Chairman Tim Wall in the company's press release.
Jarrod Bleiji, deputy premier and minister for state development, infrastructure and planning, said the declaration “is another example of how Queensland is now open for business under the Crisafulli LNP Government.”
Julia Creek is located in Northwest Queensland, where it covers 250 square kilometres. QEM says the asset is “one of the single largest vanadium deposits in the world today.”
Its resource currently stands at 2,870 million tonnes at 0.31 percent vanadium pentoxide (V2O5), with 461 million tonnes at 0.28 percent V2O5 in the indicated category and 2,406 million tonnes at 0.31 percent V2O5 in the inferred category.
A scoping study released on August 27 reveals that the project aims to produce approximately 10,571 tonnes of 99.95 percent pure V2O5 and 313 million litres of transport fuel annually over a 30 year mine life.
The company has said Julia Creek has the potential to create up to 600 jobs over a two year construction period and approximately 588 permanent jobs during its operational phase.
“The dual-commodity nature of our project seeks to address two urgent needs: long-duration energy storage and domestic fuel security,” commented QEM Managing Director Gavin Loyden on Monday.
“The adoption of vanadium flow batteries is accelerating around the world, and Queensland is uniquely positioned to establish a ‘pit to battery’ manufacturing value chain. QEM will expand its participation in this value chain by processing its vanadium pentoxide into vanadium electrolyte for long-duration batteries,” he furthered.
QEM completed a AU$2.76 million capital raise for the project on October 26, with new shares and options issued to support progress on a prefeasibility study.
Construction is slated for early 2028, while a commissioning and operational phase is set for late 2029.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Australia for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Gabrielle de la Cruz, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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16 August 2024
Australian Vanadium Gets AU$2.63 Million Government Refund for R&D Work
Australian Vanadium (ASX:AVL,OTC Pink:ATVVF) announced on Tuesday (August 13) that it has received AU$2.63 million by way of the Australian government’s Research & Development (R&D) Tax Incentive Scheme.
The refund amount was granted for R&D completed in the 2022/2023 tax year by Australian Vanadium and Technology Metals Australia, with AU$1.79 million and AU$0.84 million coming from their respective submissions.
The two companies announced plans to merge in 2023, and completed the transaction earlier this year.
Australian Vanadium is currently advancing its Western Australia-based Australian Vanadium project, which it says is one of the most advanced vanadium projects globally. It also has a wholly owned subsidiary called VSUN, whose efforts are centred on developing the Australian market for vanadium flow batteries for long-duration energy storage.
In its latest quarterly activities report, released on July 31, Australian Vanadium said the first phase of an optimised feasibility study for the Australian Vanadium project has been completed. With the second stage now in progress, the company's goals include finalising a detailed mine plan and optimising project infrastructure.
Australian Vanadium is also looking to complete layout and design criteria for an upstream crushing, milling and beneficiation plant at Gabanintha and a downstream processing plant at Tenindewa.
Earlier this month, on August 6, the City of Greater Geraldton's council lent its support to a local planning scheme amendment that proposes to rezone the site of Australian Vanadium's Tenindewa facility.
“Obtaining support from the Council advances our efforts to finalise approvals of our project and serves as a strong endorsement of the Company’s plan to become a fully integrated vanadium flow battery provider, from vanadium products and electrolyte manufacturing to the batteries themselves, all within Western Australia,” the company said.
The Australian government's R&D Tax Incentive Scheme is described as a self-assessment that “encourages companies to engage in R&D benefiting Australia by providing a tax offset for eligible activities.”
Included in the scheme’s requirements are AU$20,000 in notional deductions this income year.
“If your eligible R&D expenditure is less than AU$20,000, you can still apply for the offset. However, you must use a registered Research Service Provider to conduct your R&D,” an online explainer reads.
“For R&D entities with aggregated turnover of less than AU$20 million, the refundable R&D tax offset is your corporate tax rate plus an 18.5 percent premium."
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Australia for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Gabrielle de la Cruz, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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14 August 2024
Vanadium Market Update: H1 2024 in Review
Vanadium saw a price bump in January on hopes that China's property sector would prop up demand, but that positivity began to erode during the first half of the year as consumption remained weak.
Willis Thomas, head of CRU+, said that in January prices were 5 percent higher than December’s average, reaching 91,167 renminbi per metric ton (MT) delivered at place (DAP), or US$12,766.16.
“However, since this pre-New Year’s bump, policies introduced this year have so far failed to revive demand in the property sector, and the downward trend on pricing has continued along with structurally weak demand for finished long steel products,” he told the Investing News Network (INN) via email.
By June, a sharper-than-expected drop in China's rebar production, which fell by 12 percent year-on-year in Q1 and 13 percent year-on-year in Q2, had exacerbated vanadium's price declines. Growing battery-related demand wasn't enough to offset the losses experienced in steel applications, which make up nearly 90 percent of vanadium usage.
“Generally, the price of vanadium is very low compared to recent historical periods,” said Thomas.
By June, Chinese vanadium pentoxide was averaging just 82,312 renminbi DAP (US$11,526.19).
Lower Chinese vanadium demand stalls price growth
Global vanadium production contracted slightly in 2023, slipping from 102,000 MT in 2022 to come in at 100,000 MT, according to the US Geological Survey's latest information on the critical metal.
The report states that vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs) are becoming increasingly significant for large-scale energy storage, particularly in supporting renewable energy projects aimed at reducing carbon emissions.
Global installations of VRFB projects are on the rise, with analysts predicting that the VRFB market will account for about 17 percent of vanadium consumption by 2033, up from just 3 percent in 2021.
However, while the VRFB market's growing need for vanadium will be helpful in the future, Thomas said weak demand in the steelmaking sector, where vanadium is used as a strengthener, is weighing on the metal now.
“It was not surprising to see rebar production numbers fall in China, but it was surprising by how much," he said, noting that back in December declines for Q1 and Q2 were projected at 6 percent and 5 percent, respectively.
Vanadium prices could improve in H2 as China's new rebar standards go into effect in September.
“The new regulations will shift standards from recommendatory to mandatory. They will also adjust standards of tolerance, smelting, properties, package and implement stricter requirements on rebar quality,” states a July report from Fastmarkets. The firm said the regulations are expected to lead to increased demand for vanadium nitrogen and silicomanganese amid a push for developing high-quality steel.
“For example, the tolerance for rebar with diameters of 6-12 millimeters (mm) is 5.5 percent in 2024 standards, compared with 6 percent in the 2018 version. The tolerance for rebar with diameter of 14-20 mm is 4.5 percent, compared with 5 percent in the 2018 version,” the firm continues in the article.
During the first half of 2024, Chinese rebar consumption slipped to 102.35 million MT, an 11.7 percent decline from the same period in 2023, when 115.92 million tonnes were used.
Battery demand growing, but still far outpaced by steel
While battery demand growth is seen supporting vanadium prices in the coming years, some of that potential may be eroded as different battery chemistries vie for dominance in the market.
According to the International Energy Agency's 2024 Global Critical Metals Outlook, the battery storage market experienced significant growth in 2023, with global installed capacity surpassing 85 gigawatts. This growth was driven mainly by China, the EU and the US, which together accounted for nearly 90 percent of capacity additions.
China led the market, making up 55 percent of the new global additions, primarily through utility-scale projects paired with solar and wind. The majority of the US’ new capacity was made up of utility-scale systems, while the EU saw rapid growth in behind-the-meter storage, especially in Germany and Italy.
Of this new capacity, lithium-ion batteries — particularly lithium-iron-phosphate batteries, known as LFP — make up the largest share, representing 80 percent of storage systems. This dominance reflects their increasing use due to lower costs and better performance for frequent charging and discharging.
The report goes on to note that lithium-ion batteries remain key for short-duration storage, while alternative technologies like vanadium flow batteries are being developed to diversify energy storage solutions.
“Lithium-ion batteries’ role in fuelling the growth of the EV industry remains unchallenged in the near term,” the International Energy Agency explains. “Alternative technologies such as sodium-ion batteries and vanadium flow batteries begin to take some shares from lithium-ion batteries in low-range vehicles and storage markets, but they do not materially alter the prospects for lithium demand in climate-driven scenarios.”
Thomas also expects to see continued growth in the energy storage sector, which will benefit vanadium.
“Battery-related demand has seen increases, with 2024 looking to be another record-breaking year for this sector — but growth in this sector has not offset the loss of steel-related demand," he emphasized.
What factors will move the vanadium market in 2024?
If forecasts for increased rebar demand and energy storage applications are correct, the vanadium market will need to increase production, a point the US Geological Survey makes in its vanadium overview.
However, escalating tensions between the west and China, as well as Russia, could impact access to supply. China and Russia are the first and second largest producers of vanadium globally.
“New supplies of high-purity vanadium pentoxide needed for VRFBs are expected to come from existing producers or early-stage development projects,” the organization's report on the battery metal states.
As the US looks to build its domestic supply chains for critical minerals, the country could look to the Gibellini vanadium project in Nevada. The site is owned by Nevada Vanadium, a subsidiary of Silver Elephant Mining (TSX:ELEF,OTCQB:SILEF), and has garnered attention from the Biden administration.
“The Gibellini project, located in Eureka County, Nevada, will help provide the critical mineral vanadium, which is an important component in lightweight steel and has the potential to increase the life and reduce the cost of batteries when used in utility-scale wind and solar projects,” an April press release from the White House states.
“This was the first primary vanadium mine to be permitted in the United States.”
Elsewhere, fresh supply could come from an unexpected source.
In June, Kazakhstan began producing mixed vanadium oxides, aiming to supply the growing battery market and support green energy efforts. A facility in the Kyzylorda region is reportedly able to produce over 30 MT of the material on a monthly basis using local raw materials and advanced technologies.
Kazakhstan's Ministry of Science and Higher Education is said to be exploring partnerships with battery producers VRB Energy and Invinity Energy Systems (LSE:IES,OTCQX:IESVF). These moves are part of a broader strategy to leverage the nation’s critical raw materials, including vanadium and lithium, for the green energy transition.
Despite the potential growth the vanadium sector is expecting over the next decade, Thomas warned that there is still plenty of volatility in the market. In his view, it's not yet clear if the bottom is in.
“Vanadium capacity is being curtailed currently, but there may still be some room left for prices to fall. If steel-related demand continues to fall, as expected in Q3, then vanadium prices are likely to be flat to negative," he said.
Chinese rebar production is projected to see a 5 percent year-on-year increase in Q4, “which along with continued battery related demand may support prices near the end of the year,” Thomas said.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
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