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In its recent coverage of Metals Australia Limited (ASX:MLS), Australian analyst firm Vested Equities’ has given Metals Australia a valuation of approximately 4.7 cents per share, reflecting a compelling proposition. This valuation, based on a comparative assessment of graphite peers and the intrinsic value of the Lac Rainy resource, does not yet account for the full potential of the company's expansive exploration portfolio, the Vested report indicates. With the anticipation of further exploration unlocking substantial value, Metals Australia presents an attractive investment opportunity with significant upside potential, it adds.
Metals Australia stands out as a formidable player in the battery minerals sector with its robust portfolio of exploration and development projects. Strategically situated in the premier mining jurisdictions of Quebec, Canada and Western Australia, MLS showcases a suite of projects rich in sought-after battery metals such as lithium and graphite. Amidst China's tightening graphite export controls, MLS's assets gain geostrategic importance, offering a non-Chinese source of premium battery-grade graphite crucial for the North American lithium-ion/EV battery market.
“Metals Australia Limited is strategically positioned to experience a re-rating of its share price, driven by a confluence of catalysts,” the report states, citing MLS's strategic positioning, resource base and proactive management team as collectively form a compelling investment narrative.
Lac Carheil (formerly Lac Rainy) flake-graphite to battery anode flow sheet.
Report Highlights:
- The Lac Rainy project, a cornerstone of MLS's portfolio, boasts a JORC 2012 Mineral Resource of 13.3 million tons at 11.5 percent graphitic carbon. This includes a high-grade indicated resource and an inferred resource with significant economic potential confirmed by a completed scoping study. With recent contracts aimed at expanding and enhancing the resource, alongside plans for a flake graphite concentrate plant, the project's potential is yet to be fully tapped, promising substantial upside.
- Aggressive exploration programs for lithium and gold. The discovery of a new LCT pegmatite within the Corvette South Lithium trend in Quebec, parallels the significant findings by Patriot Battery. This, along with the gold prospects in the southeastern tenements and the lithium-bearing pegmatites in the Manindi project, highlight the company's dynamic exploration strategy. Furthermore, the acquisition of copper and gold tenements through Payne Gully Gold adds another layer of prospective value to the company's assets.
- The leadership of MLS, with the recent appointment of CEO Paul Ferguson, is poised to leverage extensive industry experience to accelerate the exploration and development activities. The company's financial health is robust, with cash reserves surpassing its market capitalization, indicating a strong financial position to sustain its ambitious growth plans.
Click here for the full report
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Metals Australia
Investor Insight
Metals Australia offers investors exposure to a rapidly advancing, high-grade graphite development project in Quebec with near-term growth catalysts, backed by strong government support, battery-grade test results, and a diversified portfolio of critical, precious and base minerals assets in tier-1 jurisdictions.
Overview
Metals Australia (ASX:MLS) is a mineral exploration company with a high-quality portfolio of advanced battery minerals and metals projects in tier-1 mining jurisdictions of Western Australia and Canada. The portfolio comprises two critical minerals projects in Quebec, Canada – the Lac Carheil flake graphite project and the Corvette River gold, silver and base metals project. The Australian portfolio comprises two projects: Warrego East (copper-gold) in Tennant Creek, Northern Territory, and Manindi (vanadium-titanium, zinc) in Western Australia.
The push for net zero targets and the call from policymakers to transition to cleaner energy has intensified the focus on electric vehicles (EVs) and battery storage. EV automakers and battery manufacturers rely on essential materials such as graphite and metals, including lithium, nickel, copper and cobalt, to manufacture the batteries that are used in these vehicles and storage batteries generally. This has driven carmakers and battery manufacturers to partner with battery material suppliers under direct off-take agreements. Further, some automakers/battery manufacturers are buying equity stakes in miners, involving them directly in financing decisions for the development of mining projects. This is encouraging for companies such as Metals Australia as it actively advances its projects towards development.
Graphite is a critical mineral required for the mass electrification of auto transportation.
Metals Australia is focused on progressing its flagship Lac Carheil flake graphite project in Quebec, Canada. The project is well-positioned to supply high quality graphite products, including battery-grade graphite, to the North American market – including for lithium-ion and EV battery production in the future. The company has completed a major winter drill program and is targeting a mineral resource upgrade in Q3 2025, with the updated resource to feed into the ongoing PFS and downstream studies.
Metallurgical work has demonstrated battery-grade spherical graphite (99.96 percent graphitic carbon) with high conversion efficiency and tap density. Downstream battery-grade purification and shaping test work is underway in Germany with ANZAPLAN.
Metals Australia is also advancing its gold silver and base metals exploration project at Corvette River, which is adjacent to Patriot Battery Metals’ world-class lithium project. Work to date has included mapping, trenching and sampling, with further drilling programs planned for 2025.
The company continues its exploration programs at its other Australian projects: Manindi (vanadium-titanium-magnetite) and Warrego East (copper-gold).
Company Highlights
- Metals Australia is rapidly advancing its flagship Lac Carheil graphite project in Quebec, Canada.
- The company holds a high-quality suite of exploration projects, including:
- gold, silver and base metals in Quebec
- vanadium, titanium and magnetite (VTM) in Western Australia (WA) – beside an already declared zinc-copper and silver mineral resource and copper-gold in the Northern Territory (NT)
- All projects are located in tier-1 mining jurisdictions (Canada and Australia) with world-class prospectivity and stable geopolitics.
- The company’s four key projects include: Lac Carheil (graphite); Corvette River (gold, silver and base metals); Manindi (vanadium-titanium-iron + zinc-copper-silver) in WA; Warrego East in the NT (copper-gold)
- A 9,482 meters winter drilling program was completed at Lac Carheil in early 2025, increasing total drilling to ~11,800 meters.
- The program added more than 4,000 m of graphitic carbon drill intercepts to the 840 m used to define the initial mineral resource.
- Graphite mineralisation has now been confirmed to be over 2.3 km of strike length, up from 1 km, on just one of 10 mapped trends.
- A mineral resource estimate (MRE) update is expected in Q3 2025 to expand the existing JORC 2012 mineral resource of 13.3 Mt @ 11.5 percent Cg, and to support an expanded mine plan.
- Only 6 percent of 36 km mapped graphite trends have been drilled to date.
- Battery-grade graphite testing confirmed:
- 99.96 percent Cg purity
- 65.3 percent battery anode conversion efficiency
- 0.97 kg/L tap density
- A pre-feasibility study (PFS) is progressing with Lycopodium, and ANZAPLAN is advancing downstream test work for a battery anode material (BAM) facility.
- A C$600,000 grant awarded to Lac Carheil from the Quebec government to support pilot metallurgy and downstream studies.
- Exploration also continues across the Corvette River, Manindi, Warrego East Projects.
- Metals Australia is led by a seasoned board and management team with extensive mining experience and a strong track record of project development.
Key Projects
Canada
Lac Carheil Flake Graphite Project (MLS 100 percent)
The 100 percent owned Lac Carheil graphite project is located in eastern Quebec, a tier-1 mining jurisdiction with strong infrastructure and government support. The project lies near the town of Fermont and has excellent access to power and logistics, including proximity to the upgraded Highway 389, nearby hydropower infrastructure, and an expanding provincial road network.
Project location, claims boundaries, graphite resource & trends, regional magnetics & sample results
The current JORC 2012 mineral resource is 13.3 Mt 11.5 percent total graphitic carbon (Cg) for 1.53 Mt of contained graphite, based on limited drilling along just 1 km of a much larger 36 km mapped trend. The resource includes an indicated resource of 9.6 Mt @ 13.1 percent Cg, and inferred resource: 3.7 Mt @ 7.3 percent Cg.
A major 9,482-meter winter diamond drilling program was completed in early 2025, increasing total project drilling to ~11,800 meters. The program defined a new southeast extension zone with multiple intersections >15 percent Cg and demonstrated graphite continuity over 2.3 km of strike length, more than double the previous extent.
The results from this drilling campaign are being incorporated into an updated mineral resource estimate, expected in Q3 2025, which will underpin the next stage of project development.
Metallurgical and battery test work has confirmed Lac Carheil’s graphite is suitable for battery-grade applications, with:
- Flotation concentrate purity of 97 percent Cg
- Spherical graphite purity of 99.96 percent Cg
- Tap density of 0.97 kg/L
- Anode conversion efficiency of 65.3 percent, exceeding global industry averages
A PFS is being led by Lycopodium Minerals Canada and is progressing in parallel with downstream battery anode (BAM) test work led by ANZAPLAN in Germany, a location study for a BAM facility, likely in Canada, and marketing and pricing assessments in collaboration with Lone Star Technical Minerals.
The project is uniquely positioned to meet North America’s surging demand for secure, domestic graphite supply, especially for EV and energy storage battery markets. It represents a strategic, high-grade, long-life source of critical material, with potential for vertical integration from mine to battery anode material.
Corvette River Gold, Silver and Base Metals Project (MLS 100 percent)
MLS’s Corvette River Project Area’s – Felicie in the northeast, West and East Eade prospects to the south of the Corvette River, 2024 & prior sample result highlights, regional geology - including greenstone belts
The Corvette River gold, silver and base metals project is located in Quebec’s James Bay region. Corvette River comprises multiple prospects including East Eade, West Eade and Felicie. The 2024 program confirmed high-grade gold and base metal zones, with trench samples of up to 29.7 g/t gold. Field programs are ongoing, with follow-up work planned in 2025.
Australian Projects
Manindi Project (MLS 80 percent)
Located in the Murchison District of Western Australia, the Manindi project includes a JORC-compliant zinc-copper-silver resource of 1.08 Mt at 6.52 percent zinc, 0.26 percent copper and 3.19 g/t silver. The project also hosts a high-grade vanadium-titanium-iron (Ti-V-Fe) discovery zone situated adjacent to the base metals resource.
Recent metallurgical test work from the Ti-V-Fe zone has produced two commercially attractive concentrates: a high-grade iron-vanadium product grading 66 percent Fe and 1.19 percent V₂O₅, and a titanium-iron product grading 43.8 percent TiO₂ and 32.0 percent Fe. The combined mass recovery from the two products exceeded 65 percent of the sample, and both products displayed low impurity levels and strong commercial potential. Further processing optimization is underway to enhance the TiO₂ grade.
The mineralised Ti-V-Fe zone remains open at depth and along strike and is hosted within a 2 km-long magnetic gabbro trend. A program of work is being finalised to support drilling to define a mineral resource within the original discovery and to test four newly identified nearby targets. These complements renewed interest in the zinc-copper-silver resource due to stronger base metal prices.
Warrego East Project (MLS 80 percent)
The Warrego East copper-gold project is located in the Tennant Creek region of the Northern Territory, near the historically significant Warrego Mine. The exploration license (E32725) is fully granted, and the mining management plan has been approved. Land access agreements have also been finalised.
Geophysical surveys have defined 11 compelling magnetic and gravity targets along a known mineralised corridor. These targets lie within a prospective structural setting that hosts several high-grade historical deposits. A field program is being prepared for execution following the wet season, alongside three additional tenement applications that aim to expand the project footprint.
Management Team
Paul Ferguson – Chief Executive Officer
A mining engineer, Paul Ferguson has over three decades of experience in the resources and energy sectors across North America, Asia and Australia. He has extensive project development and operational experience working in Canada. He has worked in oil & gas major ExxonMobil across project stages, including feasibility, design, construction, and operation. He has worked in executive level roles within Australia, including at GMA Garnet and held increasingly more senior roles with BHP (Iron Ore & Coking Coal) and then with Exxon Coal Minerals and Mobil Oil Australia during the early stages of his career.
Tanya Newby – CFO and Joint Company Secretary
Tanya Newby is a finance and governance professional with over 20 years’ experience in various corporate and commercial roles. She has a strong background in the resources sector and has provided financial advice and assistance to several publicly listed entities through exploration, project development through to the production stage. She is a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants, member of the Governance Institute of Australia and a graduate member of the Institute of Company Directors.
Michael Muhling – Joint Company Secretary
Michael Muhling has over two decades of experience in resources, including 15 years in senior roles with ASX-listed companies. He is a fellow of CPA Australia, The Chartered Governance Institute, and the Governance Institute of Australia.
Chris Ramsay – General Manager Geology
Chris Ramsay is a geologist and project manager with over 25 years of experience in the global mining industry. He has been involved in exploration, mine development and operations for mining projects in Australasia, Southeast Asia, and parts of Africa and North America.
Board
Michael Scivolo – Non-executive Chairman
Michael Scivolo has extensive accounting and taxation experience for corporate and non-corporate entities. He was a partner/director at a CPA firm until 2011 and has since been consulting in accounting and taxation. Scivolo is on the boards of several ASX-listed mining companies, including Sabre Resources, Golden Deeps and Tennant Minerals Ltd.
Alexander Biggs – Non-executive Director
Alexander Biggs has over 20 years of experience in the mining and engineering sectors. During his career, he has been involved in various activities, including operations, consulting, finance and capital raising. He is currently the managing director of Lightning Minerals (ASX) and was previously the managing director of Critical Resources (ASX: CRR). Biggs is a member of the Australian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy and a graduate of the Western Australian School of Mines.
Rachelle Domansky – Non-executive Director
Rachelle Domansky is an ESG specialist and a consulting psychologist for businesses, governments and educational institutions in the Asia-Pacific region. In addition to Metals Australia, Domansky holds non-executive board positions at Larvotto Resources Ltd and Quebec Lithium.
Basil Conti – Non-executive Director
Basil Conti has been associated with the mining industry for over 25 years. He is a fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants Australia & NZ and was a partner/director of a chartered accounting firm in West Perth until 2015.
High-quality graphite project with accelerated development pathway and outstanding portfolio of exploration properties, highly prospective for gold and copper in the Northern Territory, vanadium, titanium, iron, zinc, copper and silver in WA – and gold, silver and base metals in addition to graphite in Quebec, Canada.
International Lithium Corp.
Investor Insight
International Lithium offers investors exposure to the growing critical metals sector through its advanced-stage Raleigh Lake lithium-rubidium project in Ontario, early-stage copper-cobalt exploration at Firesteel in Ontario, and strategic focus on Southern Africa, all supported by strong infrastructure and a seasoned leadership team.
With strategic divestments, a robust financial position, and a focused growth strategy, International Lithium is well-positioned to meet the rising demand for lithium and other critical metals
Overview
International Lithium (TSXV:ILC,OTC:ILHMF,FRA:IAH,OTCQB:ILHMF) is a Canada-based mineral exploration company focused on the discovery and development of lithium and other critical metals essential for the transition to a cleaner, greener planet. With a portfolio of projects located in mining-friendly jurisdictions, the company’s primary objective is to build shareholder value by advancing its key assets towards production while expanding its presence in emerging critical metals regions.
International Lithium's flagship asset is the 100 percent owned Raleigh Lake lithium and rubidium project in Ontario. A preliminary economic assessment (PEA) for the Raleigh Lake project, completed in December 2023, demonstrated strong project economics and significant resource growth potential, including an annual after-tax cash flow of C$634 million, NPV of C$342.9 million and IRR of 44.3 percent, with a nine-year mine life and project duration of 11 years. This assessment did not yet include rubidium, which represents significant additional potential pending further market analysis.
Complementing its lithium focus, the company is advancing the Firesteel copper-cobalt project in northwestern Ontario, targeting high-grade base metal mineralization to further diversify its critical metals exposure.
In addition to its Canadian projects, International Lithium is positioning for further international growth with a strategic focus on Southern Africa. It has applied for exclusive prospecting orders (EPOs) in Zimbabwe, one of the world's most prospective regions for hard rock lithium exploration.
Recent strategic divestments, including the sale of the Avalonia project stake, have strengthened ILC's financial position, enabling focused investment in its core projects.
The company is led by an experienced management team with a strong technical background in mineral exploration, project development and corporate finance. Supported by access to established infrastructure, a commitment to sustainable development practices, and a clear strategic focus, International Lithium is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing global demand for lithium and other essential materials critical to the clean energy transition.
Company Highlights
- International Lithium is focused on developing lithium and critical metals projects in Canada and Southern Africa, aiming to deliver shareholder value through project development, strategic partnerships and project sales.
- Raleigh Lake is ILC’s wholly owned flagship lithium-rubidium project in Ontario, Canada, with a positive PEA completed in December 2023.
- ILC holds a 90 percent interest in the Firesteel copper and cobalt project in Northwestern Ontario, with exploration permits filed and drilling programs planned.
- The company has applied for exclusive prospecting orders (EPOs) in Zimbabwe and is continuing to review further exploration opportunities in Southern Africa.
- ILC is debt-free with a robust financial position. It has monetized its non-core assets, including the sale of its stake in the Avalonia project in Ireland, resulting in a C$2.5 million payment and a 2 percent net smelter royalty.
- The company is led by an experienced management team with a proven track record in advancing mineral exploration projects.
Key Projects
Raleigh Lake
The Raleigh Lake project is ILC’s flagship asset, located approximately 25 kilometres west of Ignace, Ontario. The project covers a contiguous land package of 32,900 hectares and is 100 percent owned by the company. Raleigh Lake benefits from excellent infrastructure access, situated near the Trans-Canada Highway, a Canadian Pacific Railway line, and existing natural gas and hydroelectric infrastructure.
Major public infrastructure relative to the Raleigh Lake project
Raleigh Lake is notable for its dual potential to host both lithium and rubidium mineralization. The lithium is found primarily in spodumene-bearing pegmatites, while rubidium is associated with microcline-rich zones of the same lithium-cesium-tantalum pegmatite system. In 2023, International Lithium published a maiden mineral resource estimate (MRE) that delineated significant resources for both lithium and rubidium using separate cutoff criteria.
For lithium (Li₂O), the project hosts a measured and indicated resource of 5.88 Mt grading 0.79 percent Li₂O, and an inferred resource of 2.07 Mt grading 0.77 percent Li₂O, primarily within pegmatite #1. This lithium resource forms the basis of the company’s PEA, which demonstrated robust project economics with an after-tax NPV (8 percent) of C$342.9 million and an IRR of 44.3 percent.
The rubidium component, though not included in the PEA due to current market constraints, represents an additional potential value stream. The company has reported a measured and indicated resource of 133,000 tons at 6,163 ppm rubidium (0.67 percent Rb₂O) and an inferred resource of 123,000 tons at 4,224 ppm rubidium (0.46 percent Rb₂O), using a 4,000 ppm cutoff. The rubidium zones are found in association with potassic feldspar, offering a potentially recoverable byproduct pending further market and technical evaluation.
Given the project’s strong infrastructure position, mineral endowment, and defined development path, Raleigh Lake represents a compelling advanced-stage opportunity in North America's lithium supply chain. International Lithium is continuing infill and expansion drilling, environmental baseline studies, and metallurgical testing to support project advancement toward pre-feasibility.
Firesteel Project
The Firesteel project is an early-stage copper-cobalt exploration property located in northwestern Ontario, approximately 10 km west of Upsala along Highway 17. Spanning a 16-km corridor to the Firesteel River, the property lies within a geologically favorable region characterized by Archean metavolcanic and metasedimentary rocks, which are prospective for volcanogenic massive sulphide (VMS) and sedimentary copper systems.
International Lithium completed the acquisition of a 90 percent interest in the Firesteel project in May 2024, aiming to diversify its critical metals portfolio beyond lithium. Historical sampling on the property has returned encouraging results, including copper assays up to 2.6 percent and cobalt values reaching 309 ppm. Notably, the "Roadside 1" occurrence features semi-massive sulphide mineralization comprising pyrite, pyrrhotite, chalcopyrite and bornite. These findings suggest the presence of a highly metamorphosed VMS or sedimentary copper system, potentially up to 20 meters wide and extending over a kilometer in length.
The project's proximity to major infrastructure, including highways and railways, coupled with its strategic location near the company's Raleigh Lake project, enhances its development potential. International Lithium plans to conduct systematic exploration, including geochemical sampling and geophysical surveys, to refine targets for future drilling campaigns.
Wolf Ridge Project
Wolf Ridge is a 5,700-hectare grassroots lithium project located 20 km southwest of Upsala and near ILC’s Firesteel copper claims. The area benefits from excellent infrastructure, including proximity to Highway 17, power, and road access.
The project was highlighted by the Ontario Geological Survey (2021–2022) for its standout lake sediment anomalies - among the highest lithium values in the region - indicating strong potential for LCT pegmatite mineralization.
Read more on page 54 of the report here.
Southern Africa Exploration Initiative
Southern Africa is recognized as a prospective region for hard rock lithium, and International Lithium’s strategic focus reflects a proactive move to establish a presence in this emerging jurisdiction.
As part of its strategy to expand its critical metals footprint, International Lithium has applied for Exclusive Prospecting Orders (EPOs) over several prospective areas in Zimbabwe. The targeted regions are known for hosting spodumene, lepidolite and petalite-bearing pegmatites, indicating potential for significant lithium resources.
Although the EPO applications are still pending approval, the company has already conducted initial due diligence, including geological reviews and desktop studies, to prioritize exploration targets once access is granted. Zimbabwe’s growing importance as a global lithium supplier, combined with favorable mining policies, offers a compelling backdrop for the company's expansion efforts. International Lithium intends to leverage its technical expertise and exploration experience to quickly evaluate and develop these opportunities upon receiving the necessary permits
Management Team
John Wisbey – Chairman and CEO
John Wisbey joined International Lithium in 2017, initially serving as deputy chairman before being appointed chairman and CEO in March 2018. Under his leadership, the company has undergone a significant transformation, including achieving 100 percent ownership of the Raleigh Lake project, divesting non-core assets, and expanding into new jurisdictions such as Zimbabwe. He founded two London AIM-listed companies: IDOX, which provides software for the UK local government; and Lombard Risk Management, which specializes in software for bank risk management and regulation. He also established CONVENDIA, a private company that specializes in software for cash flow forecasting, project valuation and M&A financial analysis. With a background in banking and financial technology entrepreneurship, Wisbey brings extensive experience in corporate leadership and strategic development. He is also the company's largest shareholder.
Maurice Brooks – Director and CFO
Maurice Brooks joined the board of ILC in 2017. He is a licensed senior statutory auditor in the UK. Since 2000, he has been a senior partner at Johnson Smith & Co. in Staines, Surrey. Before that, Brooks was a senior partner in Johnsons Chartered Accountants in the London Borough of Ealing. His commercial and investment experience includes executive directorships in manufacturing and an investment accountant role in the superannuation fund of the Western Australian state government. His early professional employment includes Ball Baker Leake LLP and LLC and Price Waterhouse Coopers-UK.
Anthony Kovacs – Director and COO
Anthony Kovacs joined the board of ILC in 2018 and has worked with the company since 2012. He has over 25 years of experience in mineral exploration and development. Before joining ILC, he held senior management roles in which he sourced and advanced iron ore and industrial minerals projects. Kovacs was involved in early-stage work at the Lac Otelnuk Iron Ore project in Quebec, Canada and the Mustavaara Vanadium Mine in Finland. Before that, Kovacs worked for Anglo American where he focused on Ni-Cu-PGE and IOCG projects. At Anglo-American, Kovacs was directly involved in several discoveries internationally. Kovacs has significant experience with industrial minerals, ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals and precious metals projects throughout the Americas, Europe and Africa.
Ross Thompson – Non-executive Director
Ross Thompson joined the board of ILC in 2017 and is the chair of the audit and remuneration committees. He is a speaker and expert in marketing behavioral science. In 1995, he founded Giftpoint Ltd. which is now one of the largest specialist promotional merchandise businesses in the UK. with offices in London and Shanghai. Giftpoint Ltd.’s clients include L’Oreal, Oracle, Ocado and Pernod Ricard among others. Thompson was president of IGC Global Promotions, one of the world’s oldest and largest global networks of premium resellers, for seven years. He is an active investor with a special interest and understanding of natural resources businesses.
Geoffrey Baker – Non-executive Director
Geoff Baker joined the board of ILC at the end of 2022 and is a member of the audit committee. He has a career in the natural resource and finance industries. He is a director of Tim Trading, a company offering consultancy services in the oil and gas industry. During his tenure as manager of Insch Black Gold Funds, Baker received the Investors' Choice Swiss Fund Manager of the Year Award. He is a co-founder of a digital collectible non fungible token CryptoChronic and of Cannastore, a pilot e-commerce website. Baker holds a bachelor's degree from the University of Windsor in Ontario.
Muhammad Memon – Corporate Secretary and Financial Controller
Muhammad Memon became corporate secretary of ILC in 2021. He has over 10 years of experience in managing finance and compliance functions of public companies in various sectors including mining exploration, investment management, real estate and technology. He assists companies with debt and equity financings, cash flow management and forecasting, legal and regulatory compliance, investor communications, stakeholder engagement and risk management. He is a member of the Chartered Professional Accountants of Canada and a fellow of the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants, United Kingdom.
Expert: African Lithium Key to China's Battery Supply Chain Dominance
“China needs growing feedstock to supply its chemical demand,” Cook explained at Fastmarkets' Lithium Supply & Battery Raw Materials event, “and Africa is of growing importance in fulfilling this gap.”
Between 2025 and 2035, lithium production across Africa is projected to increase by a staggering 127 percent, driven by new mines in Zimbabwe, Mali, Ethiopia and Namibia. Cook highlighted that against that backdrop Africa’s share of global lithium supply will surge from a small fraction today to around 80 percent by 2030.
The motivation for China is clear: the Asian nation cannot meet demand by tapping domestic sources alone. China’s hard-rock lithium supply has a growing deficit that will multiply fivefold by 2035.
“That deficit is growing and is said to be a five times increase from 2020 to 2035,” Cook said, pointing to forecasts of rising chemical demand from Chinese battery producers. As a result, Chinese firms have aggressively invested in African lithium projects, locking up supply in countries with looser regulatory controls and cheaper production costs.
In Zimbabwe and Mali, Chinese ownership of lithium mines is expected to remain significant, even if the share of Chinese-owned production in Africa declines modestly from 79 percent in 2025 to 65 percent by 2035.
“In 2025, African output is set to have 79 percent of it being China owned, and that percentage reduces down to 65 percent in 2035,” Cook stated, adding that overall output will still nearly double.
As a result, total Chinese-controlled volumes will keep rising.
Zimbabwe’s rising role in the lithium sector
Zimbabwe in particular has positioned itself at the heart of Africa’s lithium expansion.
Under its Vision 2030 program, introduced in 2018, the country is aiming to transition to an upper- to middle-income economy by building more domestic value from its minerals. As part of this framework, authorities have prioritized increasing value addition and beneficiation of raw materials as a central pillar of economic growth
Zimbabwe's 2022 ban on raw lithium ore exports, coupled with a planned 2027 ban on concentrate exports, is designed to force local upgrading and refining. Chinese-backed operators have already responded to this move, investing in midstream processing facilities that convert lithium ore into more valuable chemicals.
Cook said there were no surprises in Zimbabwe’s 2027 concentrate ban because Zimbabwe’s largest lithium projects — Arcadia and Bikita — had already planned sulfate plants late last year.
Both projects are already dominated by Chinese investors. In fact, Cook said Zimbabwe could soon become the fifth-largest producer of mined lithium globally, with Chinese interests controlling as much as 90 percent of its output.
Slide from Cook showing Zimbabwe's future lithium supply dominance in Africa.
Image via Georgia Williams.
Despite this surge, Africa’s lithium boom is hardly risk-free. Cook flagged serious challenges in transport, electricity and worker conditions in her presentation at the Fastmarkets conference.
“Local workers often also tend to be within the lower skilled jobs, and unlike the Australian mines, a lot of that work is done manually, which can mean there is an increased risk to personal safety,” she said.
Road bottlenecks and port congestion in countries like South Africa hamper exports, while rolling blackouts push some miners to build their own power infrastructure. However, China’s Belt and Road Initiative is easing some of those pain points, upgrading key transport corridors to keep African lithium flowing.
China pushing to secure lithium supply
Domestically, China is also seeing a shift in how it sources lithium.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence data shows that brine-based production, once a major source for China, is declining relative to hard rock. By 2035, hard rock will make up the majority of Chinese feedstock.
Cook speaks on stage at the Fastmarkets event.
Image via Georgia Williams.
While the reopening of CATL's (SZSE:300750,HKEX:3750) mine in Jiangxi province this year will help, Cook argued that China is still structurally dependent on Africa and other regions to fill the supply gap.
That dependence, she said, is at the heart of Beijing’s long-term lithium security push. “China is directly investing to secure supply, to get that hard-rock feedstock," she commented.
Future regional lithium players in Africa
While Zimbabwe, along with Mali, is grabbing attention now, Cook forecast that new African lithium suppliers will emerge by 2035, including Ethiopia, Namibia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
She also noted potential future lithium supply growth from Rwanda, Nigeria and Côte d'Ivoire, even though these countries are still years away from commercial production.
This potential dominance could come with price advantages too.
African lithium projects often have lower upfront costs compared to Australia because of their lower grades and cheaper labor, even though they may face higher impurities and weaker ESG oversight.
“It also means that in terms of pricing, we see that the spodumene price that's coming out of some of these projects is typically around US$20 to US$30 lower than the spot price that you'll see quoted by Newcastle,” Cook noted.
Still, quality issues and chronic underinvestment in African infrastructure could slow progress. Cook emphasized that transport, electricity reliability and governance will determine whether Africa can live up to its lithium promise.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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