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MLS Continues to Advance and Expand its Flagship Lac Carheil Graphite Project Towards PFS
– Lac Carheil’s strategic value also stands to be significantly enhanced by Canadian Government moves to potentially impose tariffs on Chinese critical mineral imports
Metals Australia Ltd (ASX: MLS) continues to make significant progress advancing its flagship Lac Carheil high-grade flake-graphite development project in the Tier 1 global mining province of Quebec, including:
- Comprehensive metallurgical testwork1 confirming higher quantities of higher-value coarse flake graphite in the Northwest zone of the Mineral Resource2 (Figure 1 & Table 1), with average mass recoveries of 32.4% in the + 100# product fraction (+149 micron), compared to ~ 25.5% in the Southeast portion of the resource. This represents a 27% increase in the proportion of coarse flake graphite in this zone of the resource where coarse flake attracts premium pricing, as outlined in our scoping study3.
- Enhanced processing capability achieved in design updates to the flake graphite concentrator flowsheet4 to maximise recovery of coarse flake and optimise production efficiency - at an initial production rate of 100,000 tonnes per annum of concentrate (+95% Graphitic Carbon - Cg) (Figure 2).
- Land holding at Lac Carheil increased by 62% to 11,905 hectares through pegging of further claims covering potential southeast extensions of the existing resource and for placement of key infrastructure.
- Downstream design work4 set to commence to test and select the preferred graphite purification technology, conduct a plant site location study and develop a Project Economic Assessment (PEA) for the downstream Battery Anode Material (BAM) refinery, with a bulk concentrate sample being generated by SGS Canada for shipment to Dorfner Anzaplan facilities in Germany.
- Applications lodged with Government agencies to access grants under various funding programs, with further submissions planned, to advance Pre-Feasibility Study.
- Extensive local consultation and engagement with consultants, contractors, government and First Nations organisations, including the economic development arm of the Uashat Mak Mani-Utenam, in line with the Company’s commitment to establish a socially acceptable project for all stakeholders.
- Contract award readiness for additional work scopes integral to the broader PFS study following approval of a drilling permit, including Mineral Resource Estimation, mining design and scheduling and Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) studies.
In addition to the advancements being made by the Company, the strategic value of the Lac Carheil high- grade flake-graphite project stands to be significantly enhanced from the outcome of a 30-day consultation period announced by the Canadian Government on August 26th 2024 (September 10 to October 10, 2024) seeking inputs on the potential application of a surtax on a range of Chinese imports related to critical manufacturing sectors, including critical minerals.
This follows the imposition of a 100% surtax on Chinese-made EVs due to come into effect on October 1, 2024, and a 25% surtax on imports of steel and aluminium from China, effective October 15, 2024. Lac Carheil’s strategic significance is also linked directly to, and referenced in, Quebec’s Plan for The Development of Strategic Minerals5 (2020-2025).
Based on its reviews of the projects outlined in the above plan, Metals Australia is unaware of any graphite projects actively progressing in Canada that have both the resource grade and upside potential that Lac Carheil exhibits.
Figure 1 - Lac Carheil Graphite Project – Existing Mineral Resource Locations2 (grey shading / black hole positions) & planned resource extension and infill drilling (blue holes). Location of Quebec Hydro High Voltage Powerline Corridor (dashed line) & general topography.
Metals Australia CEO Paul Ferguson commented:
“We are delighted to report progress on multiple fronts at Lac Carheil as we continue to advance our flagship high- grade flake-graphite project in Quebec to Pre-Feasibility Study status.
This progress comes as we wrap up our phase one field exploration program at our Corvette River project in Canada, where we expect to receive assay results later this month, and the recent launch of aggressive exploration programs across our three Australian gold and critical minerals projects – Warrambie, Big Bell North and Warrego East.
Over the last couple of weeks, I have had the pleasure of engaging in person with a broad range of stakeholders on country in Ontario and Quebec regarding the development of Lac Carheil. The very clear message from those discussions is that our project is rapidly developing a profile as one of the best graphite projects advancing in North America today.
Earlier this week, the Lac Carheil project received a further potential tailwind when Canada’s Department of Finance launched a 30-day consultation process on a range of potential new surtaxes, including on critical minerals, in response to what it claimed were unfair Chinese trade practices. The Government has already shown its teeth on this issue by imposing a 100% surtax on all Chinese-made EVs, effective October 1, 2024, and a 25% surtax on imports of steel and aluminium, effective October 15, 2024.
Our project can contribute to forecasted shortfalls of graphite required to meet national and homeland security requirements across North America. This future stands in stark contrast to the state of domestic market supply for graphite in North America today. There is extremely limited onshore production of graphite in North America. Nearly all graphite used in the growing North American battery industry is sourced from offshore jurisdictions. This places Lac Carheil as a project of strategic importance for a domestic supply of high-quality graphite. This is essential for securing the supply chain certainty required for the clean energy transition.
The work we committed to completing as part of our planned PFS is rapidly advancing. Comprehensive metallurgical test work for the PFS level flowsheet design of the planned 100,000 tonnes per annum concentrate plant is well progressed – as are the plant designs for the concentrate plant. We are very close to dispatching the bulk concentrate sample to Germany that will launch the downstream design phase of the project, on schedule.
The design work to date has also given rise to a prioritised list of follow-up projects that we intend to further refine and progress as we move from PFS level studies and into the Feasibility Study design. We have held discussions related to grant funding avenues in Canada, including in Quebec, and in the USA, with funding applications made and more to follow. The work we are proposing is innovative and the solutions to be generated match well with the criteria set by governments for grant funding.
While our recent endeavours have focused heavily on the engineering and scientific elements of design, we are cognizant of our need to engage broadly with stakeholders and communities to ensure we understand their concerns, identify solutions as we look to establish enduring partnerships with those communities and stakeholders.
In that regard, a large focus of my recent trip was spent engaging with government at the provincial and local levels and speaking with stakeholders, including existing and prospective service providers, First Nations economic development groups and to seek further meetings with governments and First Nations communities. I was appreciative of the many groups we were able to speak with face to face and to those who have committed to follow up discussions.
As a board and management team, we remain dedicated to collaborating with all stakeholders to develop this strategically significant project for the betterment of all.”
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This article includes content from Metals Australia Ltd, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
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Metals Australia
Overview
Metals Australia (ASX:MLS) is a mineral exploration company with a high-quality portfolio of advanced battery minerals and metals projects in Tier 1 mining jurisdictions of Western Australia and Canada. The portfolio comprises two critical minerals projects in Quebec, Canada — the Lac Carheil flake graphite project and the Corvette River lithium (and gold) project. The Australian portfolio comprises four projects: Tennant Creek (copper-gold) in the Northern Territory and Warrambie (lithium, nickel-copper, gold), Murchison (gold) and Manindi (lithium, vanadium-titanium, zinc) – all in Western Australia.
The push for net zero targets and the call from policymakers to transition to cleaner energy has intensified the focus on electric vehicles (EVs) and battery storage. The EV automakers and battery manufacturers, rely on essential materials such as graphite and metals, including lithium, nickel, copper and cobalt, to manufacture the batteries that are used in these vehicles and storage batteries generally. This has driven carmakers and battery manufacturers to partner with battery material suppliers under direct off-take agreements. Further, some automakers/battery manufacturers are buying equity stakes in miners, involving them directly in financing decisions for the development of mining projects. This is encouraging for companies such as Metals Australia as it actively advances its projects towards development.
Figure 2 – Graphite is a Critical Mineral required for the mass electrification of auto transportation.
Metals Australia is focused on progressing its flagship Lac Carheil flake graphite project in Quebec, Canada. The project is well-positioned to supply high quality graphite products, including battery-grade graphite to the North American market – including for lithium-ion and EV battery production in the future. The company announced positive sampling results across a 36-km strike length of identified graphite trends at Lac Carheil, including many values over 20% Cg and an exceptionally high-grade sample containing over 63% Cg. The company has planned a drilling program to test new high-grade zones identified from the sampling program, which will form the basis for upgrading the existing Lac Carheil Mineral Resource. An application for the drilling program is progressing with the Quebec regulator. Additionally, the company has recently commenced a Flake Graphite concentrate prefeasibility study with Lycopodium in Ontario and a downstream battery anode plant design with ANZAPLAN in Germany.
Metals Australia is also advancing its lithium, gold and silver exploration project at Corvette River, which is adjacent to Patriot Battery Metals’ world-class lithium project. Further, the company carries out aggressive exploration programs at its other projects, including Manindi, Warrambie & the Murchison in Western Australia and Tennant Creek in the Northern Territory region of Australia.
Metals Australia is well-funded to complete all its planned exploration and project studies. The cash position at the end of Q1 2024 was AU$17.86 million, which we note was higher than the company’s market capital at current share price. Metals Australia benefits from a team of professionals boasting extensive expertise in geology and mining. The appointment of experienced mining executive Paul Ferguson as the CEO is positive for the company. Since joining in January 2024, he has significantly advanced planning and preparation for the exploration, metallurgical test work programs, and design studies required to move its flagship Lac Carheil high-grade graphite project towards development. The Corvette Project has also completed exploration planning and is now fully permitted for drilling and trenching work during the northern hemisphere summer.
Company Highlights
- Metals Australia is rapidly advancing its flag ship Lac Carheil Graphite Project in Quebec, Canada. In addition, the company has a suite of high-quality exploration projects – including Lithium, Gold and Silver in Quebec, Canada and Lithium, Gold, Copper & Vanadium in Western Australia (WA) and the Northern Territory (NT).
- All projects are in Tier-1 mining jurisdictions (Canada and Australia) with world-class prospectivity and stable geo-politically.
- The company has six key exploration and development projects:
- two in Canada: the Lac Carheil high-grade flake graphite project and the Corvette River lithium and gold-silver-copper exploration project, and,
- four in Australia: Warrambie (lithium, nickel-copper, gold), Murchison (gold) and Manindi (lithium, vanadium-titanium, zinc-silver) in WA, and Tennant Creek (Warrego East copper-gold) in the NT.
- The focus is to rapidly advance its flagship Lac Carheil Graphite Project towards development. A drilling program is already contracted to substantially increase the existing JORC 2012 Mineral Resource of 13.3 Mt @ 11.5 percent graphitic carbon (Cg) and test the potential of the many other identified high-grade graphite trends.
- The 2020 Scoping Study on Lac Carheil based on the existing resource, representing only 1km of drilling out of the total 36kms of identified graphite trends, indicates a 14-year mine life with a production of 100,000 tons per annum and a pre-tax NPV @ 8 percent of US$123 million (~AUD$190 million).
- There are multiple catalysts at Lac Carheil in the near term including a pre-feasibility study (PFS) (underway), a scoping study on downstream battery (anode) - grade graphite production, and planned drilling aiming to at least double the resource as well as test other identified high-grade graphite trends.
- Furthermore, other projects in Canada including the Corvette River lithium and gold targets, and exploration in Australia at Manindi, Warrambie, Murchison and Warrego – are all seeing active progress.
- The company is well-funded to complete all its planned exploration and project studies. The cash position at the end of Q1 2024 was AU$17.86 million.
- Metals Australia is led by a seasoned board and management team possessing extensive mining sector experience and a proven track record of successful discoveries and project developments. With funding in place, the company is well-positioned to capitalise on growth prospects.
Key Projects
Canada
Lac Carheil Flake Graphite Project (MLS 100%)
Conceptual 3D Mining layout from February 2021 Scoping Study (Lac Carheil Project formerly named Lac Rainy Project)
The Lac Carheil Graphite Project is located in eastern Quebec, Canada, a tier 1 mining jurisdiction with access to excellent infrastructure, including hydroelectric power facilities. The project hosts an existing JORC 2012 mineral resource of 13.3 million tons (Mt) @ 11.5 percent graphitic carbon, which was announced in 2020 and a scoping study was completed and reported on in early 2021. Battery test work followed, in Germany, and this demonstrated the Lac Carheil Graphite concentrate could be shaped, purified, coated and used in battery applications with excellent results. Given the above work, the company carried out further field work, recently announcing exceptionally high-grade sampling results from 80 samples on 10 identified graphitic trends across the property. This included a sample containing 63 percent graphitic carbon, and 10 samples containing over 20% Cg. The average grade of the sampling was 11% Cg, which is comparable to the current high-grade resource. The combined strike length of the identified high-grade graphitic zones is over 36 kms. This compares to just 1 km of drilling on 1.6 kms of graphite trend that was utilised to obtain the existing resource. The potential for expanding and upgrading the existing resource remains enormous.
Figure 4 –Lac Carheil Graphite Project - Electromagnetic imagery outlining graphite trends and the resource
Additional drilling and development studies are either planned or are already underway, including a pre-feasibility study for a high grade Flake graphite concentrate product – which has commenced and a downstream purification options assessment and a scoping study for a battery anode facility in North America, which has been contracted. The company also announced it is contract ready for its planned drilling program and will fast-track the program as soon as permits are received from the Quebec regulator.
Corvette River Lithium Project (MLS 100%)
Corvette River Lithium, gold and silver Project is located in Quebec’s James Bay region Metals Australia recently announced that it is fully permitted to advance an extensive field exploration program across its holdings which include the wholly owned East Pontois, Felicie and West Pontois projects, situated within Patriot Battery Metals' (ASX:PMT) CV Lithium Trend, as well as tenements at West and East Eade in the company's parallel Corvette River South Trend. A field mapping and sampling program concluded last year and identified large, potentially lithium-bearing pegmatites immediately along strike from Patriot Battery Metals’ world-class lithium pegmatite discoveries. Additionally, the company has flagged significant gold and silver samples from its review of work previously completed across the field as is illustrated in the diagram below.Figure 5 – The Corvette Projects in the James Bay region of Canada. Prospective for Lithium, Gold & Silver
Australian Projects
Warrambie Project (MLS 80%)
The Warrambie project is located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. It is 20 kms west of the Andover Lithium discovery (Azure Minerals (ASX:AZS). Metals Australia has completed geophysical surveys across the area and is identifying targets for further field exploration and drilling.
Warrego East Project (MLS 80%)
Metals Australia acquired the tenements as part of a package purchased from Payne Gully Gold in 2022. The company’s tenements include a granted exploration license (E32725) directly along strike to the east of the Warrego copper-gold deposit, which has a production of 1.45 Million Ounces of gold at 8 grams per tonne and over 90,000 tonnes of Copper at 2%. The Warrego mine operated from the late 1950’s through until 1989. It was found under sedimentary cover. The area and this land package is under detailed review utilizing available geophysical surveys. The company aims to identify further targets hidden under shallow sediment cover.
Big Bell North Project (MLS 80%)
The Murchison tenements were also acquired as part of the Payne Gully Gold transaction. Metals Australia owns exploration licenses at the Murchison gold project, which is adjacent to the >5 million ounces (Moz) Big Bell gold deposit. The company plans to conduct detailed magnetics and gravity surveys to test for extensions and repeats of high-grade gold deposits.
Manindi Project (MLS 80%)
The Manindi project is located in the Murchison District, approximately 500 kms northeast of Perth in Western Australia. The project comprises three mining leases and has an established high-grade zinc mineral resource. The metallurgical test work has located spodumene in samples from a high-grade lithium intersection of 12m @ 1.38 percent lithium oxide, including 3m @ 2.12 percent lithium oxide. The company also made a new vanadium-titanium discovery at the Manindi project.Management Team
Paul Ferguson – Chief Executive Officer
A Mining Engineer, Paul Ferguson has over three decades of experience in the resources and energy sectors across North America, Asia and Australia. He has extensive project development and operational experience working in Canada. He has worked in oil & gas major ExxonMobil across project stages, including feasibility, design, construction, and operation. He has worked in Executive level roles within Australia, including at GMA Garnet and held increasingly more senior roles with BHP (Iron Ore & Coking Coal) and then with Exxon Coal Minerals and Mobil Oil Australia during the early stages of his career.
Tanya Newby – CFO and Joint Company Secretary
Tanya Newby is a finance and governance professional with over 20 years experience in various corporate and commercial roles. She has a strong background in the resources sector and has provided financial advice and assistance to a number of publicly listed entities through exploration, project development through to the production stage. Tanya is a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants, Member of the Governance Institute of Australia and a Graduate Member of the Institute of Company Directors.
Michael Muhling – Joint Company Secretary
Michael Muhling has over two decades of experience in the resources, including 15 years in senior roles with ASX-listed companies. He is a fellow of CPA Australia, The Chartered Governance Institute, and the Governance Institute of Australia.
John Dugdale – Technical Advisor
John Dugdale is a geologist with over 35 years of experience in the discovery and development of graphite, lithium, gold, nickel and copper projects. His corporate experience includes serving as a director and CEO of several junior resource companies focused on nickel-cobalt, graphite and copper-gold projects. Additionally, he has experience in funds management with Lion Selection Group.
Chris Ramsay – General Manager Geology
Chris Ramsay is a geologist and project manager with over 25 years of experience in the global mining industry. He has been involved in exploration, mine development and operations for mining projects in Australasia, Southeast Asia, and parts of Africa and North America.
Board
Michael Scivolo – Non-executive Chairman
Michael Scivolo has extensive accounting and taxation experience for corporate and non-corporate entities. He was a partner/director at a CPA firm until 2011 and has since been consulting in accounting and taxation. Scivolo is on the boards of several ASX-listed mining companies, including Sabre Resources, Golden Deeps and Tennant Minerals Ltd.
Alexander Biggs – Non-executive Director
Alexander Biggs has over 20 years of experience in the mining and engineering sector. During his career, he has been involved in various activities, including operations, consulting, finance and capital raising. He is currently the managing director of Lightning Minerals (ASX) and was previously the managing director of Critical Resources (ASX:CRR). Biggs is a member of the Australian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy and a graduate of the Western Australian School of Mines.
Rachelle Domansky – Non-executive Director
Rachelle Domansky is an ESG specialist and a consulting psychologist for businesses, governments and educational institutions in the Asia-Pacific region. In addition to Metals Australia, Rachelle holds non-executive board positions at Quebec Lithium and Access Plus WA Deaf.
Basil Conti – Non-executive Director
Basil Conti has been associated with the mining industry for over 25 years. He is a fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants Australia & NZ and was a partner/director of a chartered accounting firm in West Perth until 2015.
Lac Carheil Expanded Footprint, Drilling Fully Permitted
Australian Projects - Warrego East, Manindi, Drill Updates
Pilot Plant Downstream Process Produces Lithium Carbonate with 99.78% Purity
CleanTech Lithium PLC (AIM: CTL, Frankfurt: T2N), an exploration and development company advancing sustainable lithium projects in Chile, further to "Pilot-Scale Lithium Carbonate Production" RNS on 21 November 2024, announces the production of a high purity lithium carbonate sample from the Company´s pilot plant downstream process.
The Company has also made the decision to voluntarily delist from the OTCQX market in the U.S. The Board did not see the value from low trading volumes and the associated administration costs. The Company's Ordinary Shares continue to trade on the London AIM Market, the Frankfurt Stock Exchange and the U.S. OTC Pink Market.
Highlights:
- The Company is processing concentrated eluate from its DLE pilot plant in Copiapó, Chile at the facilities of Conductive Energy ("Conductive") in Chicago, USA with the aim of producing battery grade lithium carbonate.
- The downstream process design aims to minimise process steps and demonstrate a process that is scalable and can consistently produce a battery-grade lithium carbonate product. Key stages are:
- Eluate concentration using Forward Osmosis ("iFO") to produce a highly concentrated pre-carbonation solution with low energy input
- Treatment of the pre-carbonation solution to remove contaminants
- Carbonation to technical-grade lithium carbonate
- Post-carbonation polishing to achieve battery-grade lithium carbonate
- A substantial volume of pre-carbonation solution and lithium carbonate was produced as reported to the market on 21 November 2024.
- Due to the onset of freezing weather in Chicago from late November, steps were taken to mitigate damage to sensitive iFO processing equipment and iFO concentration was paused.
- Further downstream processing continued using the already produced pre-carbonation solution to refine and analyse the downstream process and lithium carbonate product.
- A test run volume of pre-carbonation solution was processed in December into an 8kg sample of high grade lithium carbonate which a laboratory at the University of Calgary has recently confirmed achieved 99.78% purity.
- This exceeds the 99.6% purity standard (Chinese GB/T 23853-2022 (Type 1) for battery grade lithium carbonate from brine. However, certain individual impurity concentrations were higher than the standard.
- The treatment process was shown to be effective at removing contaminants, resulting in high-quality feed to the carbonation stage.
- The most problematic contaminants in the pre-carbonation solution, Calcium, Magnesium and Boron, were reduced by 98.5%, 99.9% and to non-detection (>99.99%) respectively.
- Conductive Energy is is currently assessing best options to restart iFO operations that are paused due to winter conditions.
- Conductive is utilising the current pause to upgrade the system based on initial data as well as add an nanofiltration step to remove divalent ions (Calcium, Magnesium) before the ion exchange steps which will improve purification efficiency further whilst improvements in automation and process control will be made.
Steve Kesler, Executive Chairman, CleanTech Lithium said: "We are pleased to report the production of high grade lithium carbonate with a purity of 99.78% from an initial batch of concentrated eluate from our Laguna Verde project. This phase of work has focused on fine-tuning the process and preparing to scale up pilot plant output. Our collaborative efforts with Conductive Energy and Forward Water on the downstream process are advancing our aim to produce signifigant quantities of battery grade product to introduce to potential strategic partners and off-takers."
Images 1-2: High purity lithium carbonate falling from filter plate and final product. Low adhesion and moisture content is an indicator of high product purity & exceptional crystal structure
Further Details:
In 2H 2024, a total of 88m3 of concentrated eluate produced at the Company´s DLE pilot plant located in Copiapó, Chile, was shipped to the facilities of Conductive Energy in Chicago, USA, for conversion into lithium carbonate. Processing commenced in November 2024 and a total of 27.5m3 of concentrated eluate was processed through the iFO stage which reduced the volume to 5.3m3 of pre-carbonation solution with lithium concentrations up to 14,400mg/l. The iFO unit is a mobile demonstration scale unit with a feed flow rate of 800 - 1,000L per hour and is an outdoor installation and therefore susceptible to weather conditions. A portion of the solution was processed into approximately 50kg of lithium carbonate as announced to the market on 21 November 2024.
Image 3: The iFO unit installed at the Conductive Energy site in Chicago, USA
Despite challenging weather conditions in late November, with temperatures in Chicago dropping below zero degrees Celsius, process evaluation continued with the aim of achieving iterative improvements in yield at lower energy and reagent inputs, which helps assess scalability and operating costs.
Adverse weather did pose risks to sensitive process equipment, such as the membrane modules of the iFO unit and further iFO concentration was paused. Under commercial-scale operations, such systems would be housed within temperature-controlled facilities to mitigate these challenges.
Production of High Purity Product
Downstream processing continued using iFO concentrate already produced to run the final purification, carbonation and polishing stages and produce a test quantity of high grade lithium carbonate. The solution produced by the iFO unit was 14,350mg/l Li, a 6.5X increase in concentration of the concentrated eluate. This was achieved without optimisation and in sub-optimal weather conditions. Optimization is expected to achieve a minimum 10X increase in concentration at this stage. Further stages of contaminant removal, carbonation and polishing achieved a high grade lithium carbonate product with a purity of 99.78% Li2CO3
Feed Brine | Concentrated Eluate | Post iFO Solution | Lithium Carbonate | |
Grade (mg/L Li) | 180 | 2,210 | 14,350 | 99.78% |
Table 1: Lithium grade in key stages from feed brine to final product
Treatment to Remove Impurities
The purification stage consists of 3 process units - microfiltration, divalent ion exchange and boron ion exchange. These were shown to greatly reduce the concentrated contaminants in the pre-carbonation solution resulting in a high-quality feed to the carbonation process. The most problematic contaminants in the pre-carbonation solution, Calcium, Magnesium and Boron were reduced by 98.5%, 99.9% and to non-detection (>99.99%), respectively. Table 2 shows the major ions in each process stage. Upgrades to the system, including the addition of a nanofiltration step is being implemented to more efficiently remove divalent ions which were at a higher concentration in the concentrated eluate received (although within Lanshen design specification) than the Conductive pilot plant was set up for.
Element (mg/L) | Concentrated Eluate (mg/L) | iFO (mg/L) | Microfiltration (mg/L) | Ion Exchange (mg/L) | Boron Ion Exchange (mg/L) |
B | 506 | 1,655 | 1,480 | 1,230 | ND |
Ca | 48.2 | 346 | 319 | 5 | 5 |
K | 21.8 | 129 | 132 | 114 | 70 |
Mg | 49.7 | 357 | 318 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
Na | 428 | 2,685 | 4,140 | 7,870 | 5,115 |
S | 19.3 | 136 | 132 | 117 | 78 |
Table 2: Major impurities following each stage of pre-treatment
Carbonation Stage
Carbonation proceeded as designed, with initial technical grade material produced from the feed in under 15 minutes of reactor time. The technical grade product was subsequently polished in a single wash step to produce a high-purity lithium carbonate product. Table 2 presents all the detected elements by ICP, undertaken by a laboratory at the University of Calgary, as a percent weight of the total dry product (100% dry mass). Moisture in the product prior to kiln drying was low at 28% wt. The final product achieved 99.78% lithium carbonate purity on a fully dry basis (Table 3).
Image 4: Filter press used in the conversion process to produce lithium carbonate
A comparison to Chinese standard GB/T 23853-2022 (Type 1) for battery grade lithium carbonate is shown in Table 3. Potassium, sodium and chloride will be reduced through changes in carbonation reactor operation such that post-carbonation washing is more effective. The divalent ions, calcium and magnesium, will be reduced following introduction of the nanofiltration step.
Product | CTL T1 Product2 | GB/T 23853-2022 |
Li2CO3 | 99.78% | 99.60% |
Na | 0.050% | 0.030% |
K | 0.014% | 0.002% |
Ca | 0.022% | 0.005% |
Mg | 0.015% | 0.005% |
SO4 | 0.016% | 0.01% |
Cl | 0.044% | 0.02% |
B | 0.001% | 0.005% |
Fe | nd (0.0005%) | 0.001% |
Cu | nd (0.0005%) | 0.005% |
Pb | nd (0.0005%) | |
Al | 0.001% | |
Zn | nd (0.0005%) | |
Si | 0.006% | 0.002% |
Mn | 0.0003% | 0.001% |
H2O | 0.2% | 0.4% |
Insoluble | nd (0.01) | 0.005% |
Table 3: Weight (%) of elements in the final product after drying
Next Steps
Downstream processing is scheduled to resume in February 2025, with the rest of the 88m³ volume of concentrated eluate anticipated to be processed between February and April 2025.
Conductive Energy is utilising the the iFO operations pause to implement several improvements to the system will be implemented primarily in automation and process control and debottlenecking for continuous operation and addition of a nanofiltration stage. The planned schedule is:
- Early January - early February 2025: facility recommissioning and recommence processing
- Mid-February - plan additional tours with third parties for offtake purposes
- Mid-February - early April, completion of CleanTech Lithium's concentrated eluate processing and conversion to battery grade lithium carbonate to produce larger quantities for start of product qualification by potential strategic partners and off-takers.
Competent Persons Statement
The following professional acts as qualified person, as defined in the AIM Note for Mining, Oil and Gas Companies (June 2009) and JORC Code (2012):
The technical information contained within this announcement has been reviewed and approved by Dr Steve Kesler, a Director of the Company. Dr Kesler is a Fellow of the Institute of Materials, Minerals and Mining and a Chartered Engineer with over 40 years' experience in the mining and resource development industry. Dr Kesle holds a degree in Mining Engineering and Ph.D in Mineral Technology both from Imperial College, London Dr Kesler and has sufficient experience, as to qualify as a Competent Person as defined in the 2012 edition of the "Australian Code for Reporting of Mineral Resources and Ore reserves" and for the purposes of the AIM Guidance Note on Mining and Oil & Gas Companies dated June 2009. Dr Kesler consents to the inclusion in this announcement of the matters based on information in the form and context in which it appears. The Company is reporting progress on project development and metallurgical results under the 2012 edition of the Australasian Code for the Reporting of Results, Minerals Resources and Ore reserves (JORC code 2012).
The information communicated within this announcement is deemed to constitute inside information as stipulated under the Market Abuse Regulations (EU) No 596/2014 which is part of UK law by virtue of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018. Upon publication of this announcement, this inside information is now considered to be in the public domain. The person who arranged for the release of this announcement on behalf of the Company was Gordon Stein, Director and CFO.
For further information contact: | |
CleanTech Lithium PLC | |
Steve Kesler/Gordon Stein/Nick Baxter | Jersey office: +44 (0) 1534 668 321 Chile office: +562-32239222 |
Or via Celicourt | |
Celicourt Communications Felicity Winkles/Philip Dennis/Ali AlQahtani | +44 (0) 20 7770 6424 |
Beaumont Cornish Limited (Nominated Adviser) Roland Cornish/Asia Szusciak | +44 (0) 20 7628 3396 |
Fox-Davies Capital Limited (Joint Broker) Daniel Fox-Davies | +44 (0) 20 3884 8450 |
Canaccord Genuity (Joint Broker) James Asensio | +44 (0) 20 7523 4680 |
Beaumont Cornish Limited ("Beaumont Cornish") is the Company's Nominated Adviser and is authorised and regulated by the FCA. Beaumont Cornish's responsibilities as the Company's Nominated Adviser, including a responsibility to advise and guide the Company on its responsibilities under the AIM Rules for Companies and AIM Rules for Nominated Advisers, are owed solely to the London Stock Exchange. Beaumont Cornish is not acting for and will not be responsible to any other persons for providing protections afforded to customers of Beaumont Cornish nor for advising them in relation to the proposed arrangements described in this announcement or any matter referred to in it.
Notes
CleanTech Lithium (AIM:CTL, Frankfurt:T2N, OTCQX:CTLHF) is an exploration and development company advancing lithium projects in Chile for the clean energy transition. Committed to net-zero, CleanTech Lithium's mission is to become a new supplier of battery grade lithium using Direct Lithium Extraction technology powered by renewable energy.
CleanTech Lithium has two key lithium projects in Chile, Laguna Verde and Viento Andino, and exploration stage projects in Llamara and Arenas Blancas (Salar de Atacama), located in the lithium triangle, a leading centre for battery grade lithium production. The two most advanced projects: Laguna Verde and Viento Andino are situated within basins controlled by the Company, which affords significant potential development and operational advantages. All four projects have good access to existing infrastructure.
CleanTech Lithium is committed to utilising Direct Lithium Extraction with reinjection of spent brine resulting in no aquifer depletion. Direct Lithium Extraction is a transformative technology which removes lithium from brine with higher recoveries, short development lead times and no extensive evaporation pond construction. www.ctlithium.com
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Argentina’s Lithium Resource Holds Potential to Power the Global Energy Transition
As the global energy landscape shifts towards cleaner alternatives, Argentina's position within the Lithium Triangle is emerging as a focal point for savvy investors.
This geological marvel, spanning Argentina, Bolivia and Chile, holds over half of the world's known lithium reserves, with Argentina poised to become a linchpin in the global lithium supply chain.
The country's vast salt flats, or 'salares', are not just natural wonders but veritable treasure troves for those looking to capitalise on the burgeoning demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy storage solutions.
The significance of Argentina's lithium resources is underscored by recent industry movements. For instance, Rio Tinto's (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) $6.7 billion planned acquisition of Arcadium Lithium (NYSE:ALTM,ASX:LTM) highlights the growing interest in brine projects and the strategic value of their location within the Lithium Triangle.
This move signals a broader trend of major players recognising the potential of Argentina's lithium deposits.
The Lithium Triangle: A geological profile
The Lithium Triangle, aptly named for its abundance of the lightweight metal, is the world's largest source of lithium. This region holds the key to meeting the surging demand for lithium-ion batteries that power EVs and store renewable energy. Argentina, with its vast salt flats, is particularly well-positioned to capitalise on this demand.
This region’s extensive salt flats are the result of ancient lakes that have evaporated over millions of years. These salars are underlain by vast aquifers containing lithium-rich brines, formed through the weathering of lithium-bearing rocks. The concentration of lithium in these brines is exceptionally high, with some areas reporting concentrations up to 1,500 milligrams per litre (mg/L), significantly higher than deposits found elsewhere. This unique geological formation, coupled with the arid climate that promotes natural evaporation, creates ideal conditions for lithium extraction.
The geological stability of the region, marked by minimal tectonic activity, further enhances its attractiveness for long-term mining operations. These factors combine to make Argentina's lithium resources not only abundant but also economically viable and strategically accessible for extraction.
Argentina's lithium production primarily relies on brine extraction, a method that offers several advantages over traditional hard rock mining. This process involves pumping lithium-rich brine from underground reservoirs and allowing it to evaporate in large ponds, leaving behind concentrated lithium compounds.
The benefits of brine extraction include:
- Lower production costs compared to hard rock mining
- Reduced environmental impact due to less intensive mining operations
- Higher-grade lithium with fewer impurities, ideal for battery production
These factors contribute to Argentina's competitive edge in the global lithium market, making its projects particularly attractive to investors and battery manufacturers alike.
Spotlight on excellence: Hombre Muerto West project
A prime example of Argentina's lithium potential is Galan Lithium's (ASX:GLN) Hombre Muerto West (HMW) project. Located in the heart of Argentina's lithium-rich Salar del Hombre Muerto, this project exemplifies the high-grade, low-impurity brine that makes Argentine lithium so valuable.
Key features of the HMW project include:
- High-grade lithium brine with concentrations of 859 mg/L
- Low levels of impurities, reducing processing costs
- Strategic location near established operations like Livent Corporation's El Fenix site
- A substantial resource of approximately 8.6 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent
The project's proximity to existing operations enhances its value proposition, potentially allowing for shared infrastructure and knowledge transfer. This strategic positioning within the Lithium Triangle underscores the importance of location in the lithium industry.
Wood Mackenzie’s emissions benchmarking service has also placed HMW within the first quartile of the industry greenhouse gas emissions curve, making the project a globally significant, long-term source of lithium.
Argentina's commitment to lithium production
Recognising the immense potential of its lithium resources, Argentina has taken significant steps to foster growth in its lithium industry. The government has implemented a supportive regulatory framework aimed at attracting investment and accelerating project development.
Key initiatives include:
- A $7 billion investment plan to boost lithium production
- Projected export growth from $1.7 billion in 2022 to $5 billion by 2025
- Streamlined permitting processes for lithium projects
- Incentives for companies investing in lithium extraction and processing
These efforts are expected to significantly increase Argentina's lithium output, solidifying its position as a major player in the global supply chain.
Investment potential
The combination of high-grade resources, favorable extraction methods and supportive government policies makes Argentina's lithium projects highly attractive to investors. Companies like Galan Lithium, with their focus on high-grade brine assets, are well-positioned to capitalise on the growing demand for lithium in the clean energy sector.
Key factors driving investment interest in Argentina’s lithium sector include:
- Lower production costs compared to hard rock lithium mining
- High-quality lithium suitable for high-performance batteries
- Increasing global demand for lithium, driven by EV adoption and renewable energy storage
- Argentina's commitment to expanding its lithium industry
As the world transitions towards cleaner energy sources, the importance of securing a stable lithium supply becomes paramount. Argentina's lithium projects offer a compelling opportunity for investors looking to participate in this global shift.
Investor takeaway
Argentina's strategic position in the Lithium Triangle makes it a crucial player in the global lithium supply chain.
With its high-grade brine resources, favorable extraction methods and supportive government policies, the country is poised to significantly impact the future of clean energy technologies.
As projects like Galan Lithium's HMW continue to develop, and as global demand for lithium surges, Argentina's strategic importance in the lithium market is set to grow. For investors, policymakers and industry stakeholders, keeping a close eye on developments in Argentina's lithium sector will be crucial in navigating the evolving landscape of the global energy transition.
This INNSpired article is sponsored by Galan Lithium (ASX:GLN,FSX:9CH). This INNSpired article provides information which was sourced by the Investing News Network (INN) and approved by Galan Lithiumin order to help investors learn more about the company. Galan Lithium is a client of INN. The company’s campaign fees pay for INN to create and update this INNSpired article.
This INNSpired article was written according to INN editorial standards to educate investors.
INN does not provide investment advice and the information on this profile should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. INN does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company profiled.
The information contained here is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of securities. Readers should conduct their own research for all information publicly available concerning the company. Prior to making any investment decision, it is recommended that readers consult directly with Galan Lithiumand seek advice from a qualified investment advisor.
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World Lithium Outlook 2025
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World Lithium Outlook 2025
Table of Contents
Lithium Market 2024 Year-End Review
Lithium Market 2024 Year-End Review
Lithium prices remained low in 2024 on the back of oversupply and weak demand.
Lithium carbonate spent the majority of the year contracting, shedding 22 percent between January and December. Prices started the 12 month period at US$13,160.20 per metric ton (MT) and ended it at US$10,254.16.
The weak price environment was the result of a supply glut, a factor that S&P Global expects to persist in 2025.
In a November report, the firm forecasts a “global surplus of approximately 33,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2025, a decrease from the 84,000 metric tons surplus projected for 2024 and 2023's 120,000 metric tons."
Against that backdrop, S&P is projecting continued lithium carbonate price declines next year, with the annual average price projected at US$10,542 in 2025, down from US$12,374 in 2024 and a steep drop from US$40,579 in 2023.
Adding to price pressure, advances in alternative battery technologies are posing challenges to lithium's traditional dominance. In 2024, these factors combined to create a year of volatility and transformation for the critical battery metal.
Supply surplus weighs on lithium prices
Market saturation emerged as a key theme for lithium early in the year as a continued surplus weighed on prices.
The excess comes on the back of steadily growing mine supply over the last four years. In 2020, the annual global mine supply tally was 82,500 MT, a number that more than doubled in 2023 to 180,000 MT.
Prices for lithium carbonate remained in the US$13,000 range for January, but began to rise in mid-February, ultimately reaching a year-to-date high of US$15,969.26 on March 14.
The price momentum was attributed to announcements that some new projects were being delayed, while operations in development and production were being transitioned to care and maintenance.
“We also began to see some supply response to the persistent lower price environment, with the announcement of delays to expansion plans and layoffs at some lithium producers or aspirants,” Adam Megginson, analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, told the Investing News Network during the first quarter.
“I only expect this to palpably impact the supply picture in 12 to 18 months, as that is when these expansions were planned to ramp.”
Record-setting lithium M&A activity
This precarious landscape was fertile ground for M&A deals, which occurred throughout the year.
“As lithium projects struggle to stay above water, analysts also expect M&A activity to increase as major producers with positive cash flow try to find deals in the market while junior companies try to sell projects in a market where private capitals are scarcer than previous years," a February 12 report from S&P Global states.
2024 started with the completion of Livent (NYSE:LTHM) and Allkem's merger of equals. The deal saw the two companies combine under the Arcadium Lithium (NYSE:ALTM,ASX:LTM) banner,boasting a market cap of US$5.5 billion and an extensive portfolio of lithium production assets and resources across the Americas and Australia.
By September, the weak price environment had forced Arcadium to halt expansion plans for its Mount Cattlin spodumene operation in Western Australia, with plans to transition to care and maintenance by mid-2025.
Despite that setback, Arcadium made headlines once again a month later as global mining major Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) made a move to acquire the multinational lithium company. Once the US$6.7 billion all-cash transaction closes, Rio Tinto will become the third largest producer of lithium globally.
Another notable 2024 lithium deal was Pilbara Minerals' (ASX:PLS,OTC Pink:PILBF) August plan to acquire Latin Resources (ASX:LRS,OTC Pink:LRSRF) in an all-stock deal valued at approximately US$369.4 million.
The acquisition will grant Pilbara Minerals access to Latin Resources' flagship Salinas lithium project in Brazil's Minas Gerais state, enhancing its presence in the burgeoning North American and European battery markets.
In late November, Sayona Mining (ASX:SYA,OTCQB:SYAXF) and US-based Piedmont Lithium (ASX:PLL,NASDAQ:PLL) unveiled a merger that is set to create a consolidated entity valued at about US$623 million.
These deals helped make lithium one of the most active M&A segments in the critical minerals space.
“Lithium stands out with both the highest volume of deals and largest total deal value from 2020-24 (US$24 billion),” a 2025 critical minerals outlook from Allens reads. “Deal volume for lithium M&A deals peaked in 2023, but remains relatively high in 2024, showing comparable volume to 2022.”
Global EV sales rebound amid trade tensions and policy shifts
As one of the largest end-use segments for lithium, the EV industry is a key factor in the market.
Weak North American EV sales early in the year offset some positivity out of Asian markets; however, in late Q3 and Q4, global sales began to pick up momentum. In October, the Chinese EV market set another monthly record with 1.2 million units sold, a 6 percent month-on-month increase. According to data from research firm Rho Motion, EV sales between January and October were up 24 percent compared to the same period in 2023.
“The global EV market is now picking back up again, hitting record sales for the second month in a row. Most of the growth is coming from China and Western manufacturers are clearly feeling threatened by this. The US market remains buoyant in part thanks to Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funding for consumers switching to electric which may be at risk with the start of the Trump presidency,” said Charles Lester, data manager at Rho Motion.
However, there is speculation that President-elect Donald Trump will dismantle key components of the IRA, particularly targeting the US$7,500 EV tax credit. His transition team has indicated intentions to eliminate this consumer incentive, which was designed to promote EV adoption and bolster the country's clean energy sector.
Critics have argued that removing the tax credit could hinder domestic EV sales and potentially benefit foreign competitors, notably China, by undermining investments in the US battery supply chain.
With that in mind, the proposed repealing of the tax credit has raised concerns among automakers and environmental advocates about the future of America's competitiveness in the rapidly growing global EV market.
The Biden administration made efforts to address that issue in May, when it sharply increased tariffs on Chinese EVs, raising duties to over 100 percent to counter alleged unfair trade practices. While the move was made to bolster domestic EV production and sales, critics said it could disrupt supply chains and raise consumer costs.
Following suit in August, North American neighbor Canada levied a 100 percent tariff on Chinese EVs, aligning with the US and EU to counter China’s trade practices. At the time, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau criticized China’s policies as unfair, citing their impact on Canadian industries and workers. He emphasized the need to protect the domestic EV and metal sectors from overcapacity caused by China’s state-driven production.
Canada also introduced a 25 percent surtax on Chinese steel and aluminum imports.
In response, China filed a formal complaint with the World Trade Organization over Canada’s decision to impose tariffs on Chinese-made EVs, steel and aluminum. Beijing criticized the measures as protectionist and in violation of international trade rules. China also filed similar complaints against the US and EU.
As uncertainty continues to plague the lithium space, analysts are projecting a sustained low-price environment into 2025, despite the production cuts and project delays that were prevalent in 2024.
"With the production cuts announced so far having primarily been about slowing future growth rather than immediate production, strong mine supply growth is still expected in the short-term, namely 24.7 percent in 2024 and 17.4 percent in 2025," Macquarie analysts told S&P Global as 2024 drew to a close.
"This suggests lower prices will need to persist for longer in the absence of any further price-induced cuts that rebalance the market sooner than our forecasts indicate.”
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Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Lithium Market Forecast: Top Trends for Lithium in 2025
After a tumultuous 2024 that saw lithium carbonate prices tumble 22 percent amid a global supply glut, analysts are predicting another year of volatility for the important battery metal.
Even so, some balance is expected to return — according to S&P Global, the lithium surplus is projected to narrow to 33,000 metric tons in 2025, down from 84,000 metric tons in 2024, as production cuts begin to temper excess supply.
Demand from the electric vehicle (EV) market remains a key driver, with China maintaining its dominance after record-breaking sales in late 2024. In North America, the EV sector will face uncertainty under the Trump administration.
As 2025 unfolds, the lithium sector will also have to navigate geopolitical tensions, including rising tariffs on Chinese EVs and escalating trade disputes that are reshaping global supply chains.
“The name of the game in lithium (in 2025) is oversupply. Excess production in places like Africa and China, coupled with softer EV sales, has absolutely hammered the lithium price both in 2023 and 2024. I wouldn't think we can dig ourselves out of this hole in 2025 despite reliably strong EV sales,” said Chris Berry, president of House Mountain Partners.
In his view, the next 12 months could be unpredictable in terms of lithium price activity.
“Lithium price volatility is a feature of the energy transition and not a bug,” he said. “You have a small but fast-growing market, opaque pricing, legislation designed to rapidly build critical infrastructure underpinned by lithium and other metals, and this is a recipe for boom-and-bust cycles demonstrated by extremely high and extremely low pricing.”
For Gerardo Del Real of Digest Publishing, seeing prices for lithium contract by 80 percent over the last two years evidences a bottoming in the lithium market and also serves as a strong signal.
“I think the fact that we're up some 7 percent to close the year in 2024 in the spot price leads me to believe that we're going to see a pretty robust rebound in 2025. I think that's going to extend to the producers that have obviously been affected by the lower prices, but also to the quality exploration companies,” Del Real said in December.
He believes contrarian investors with a mid to long-term outlook have a prime opportunity to re-enter the space.
Lithium market to see more balance in 2025
As mentioned, widespread lithium production cuts are expected to help bring the sector into balance in 2025.
William Adams, head of base metals research at Fastmarkets, told the Investing News Network (INN) via email that output cuts for the battery metal have already started inside and outside of China.
“We expect further cutbacks if prices do not recover soon in the new year. While we have seen some cuts, we are also seeing some producers continue with their expansion plans and some advanced junior miners ramp up production. So we are now in a situation where we are waiting for demand to catch up with production again," he said.
Adams and Fastmarkets expect to see lithium demand catch up to production in late 2025. However, he warned that refreshed demand is unlikely to push prices to previous highs set in 2022.
“We do not expect to see a return to the highs we saw in 2022, as there are more producers and mines around now and there has been a buildup of stocks along the supply chain, especially in China,” he said.
“This should prevent any actual shortage being seen in 2025, but stocks can be held in tight hands, and if the market senses a tighter market, then they may be encouraged to restock, which could lift prices. But the restart of idle capacity in such a case is likely to keep prices rises in check," Adams added.
Analysts at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence are taking a similar stance, with a slightly more optimistic tone.
“In 2025, prices are likely to remain fairly rangebound. This is because Benchmark forecasts a relatively balanced market next year in terms of supply and demand,” said Adam Megginson, senior analyst at the firm. He also referenced output reductions in Australia and China, noting that they may not be as impactful as some market watchers anticipate.
This past July, Albemarle (NYSE:ALB), announced plans to halve processing capacity in Australia and pause an expansion at its Kemerton plant amid the prolonged lithium price slump. One of the plant’s two processing trains will be placed on care and maintenance, while construction of a third train has been scrapped.
“These supply contractions are likely to be balanced by capacity expansions due to come online in China in 2025, as well as in African countries like Zimbabwe and Mali,” Megginson said.
“Expect supply from these other regions to play a bigger role in the market in 2025.”
Unpredictable geopolitical situation to impact sector
Geopolitics is likely to play a key role in the lithium market this year, both directly and indirectly.
In 2024, the Biden administration raised tariffs on Chinese EVs to over 100 percent to counter alleged unfair trade practices, aiming to boost domestic production, but drawing criticism over potential supply chain disruptions.
Canada followed suit with similar 100 percent tariffs on Chinese EVs, as well as a 25 percent surcharge on Chinese steel and aluminum, citing the need to protect local industries. China has responded with World Trade Organization complaints against Canada and the US, along with the EU, labeling the measures protectionist.
Whether these tariffs against China will be enough to bolster the domestic North American EV market remains to be seen; however, the issue could become even more complicated if US President-elect Donald Trump makes good on his threats to levy tariffs on America's continental trade partners, Canada and Mexico.
Del Real doesn't expect US tariffs on critical minerals like lithium, but expressed concerns about a trade war.
“The bottom line is getting into a tit-for-tat with China is a dangerous proposition because of the leverage they have, especially in the commodity space, and so the tariffs are going to be passed down to consumers," he said. In his view, Trump's tariff threats could be more of a negotiating tactic than a sustained strategy.
More broadly, the experts INN heard from expect resource nationalism, near shoring and supply chain security to play prevalent roles in the lithium market and the critical minerals space as a whole.
“There's no doubt that lithium in particular has become politicized as policy makers across the globe have awoken from their slumber and realized that dependence on critical materials and supply chains in a single country is a bad idea for both economic and national security,” said Berry, noting that China had this realization decades ago.
“There is no easy fix, and you're looking at roughly a decade before any western countries have any sort of a regionalized or 'friend-shored' supply chain. Accelerating this would involve massive capital investment, patience and most importantly, political will. North America in particular has made great strides in recent years, but we have a long way to go. I'm not sure if fully decoupling from China is even a good idea," the battery metals expert added.
For Benchmark’s Megginson, 2025 could be a year of increased domestic development.
“We have seen several countries attempting to adopt some form of 'resource nationalism.' In some cases, this has been driven by wanting to onshore the production of critical minerals that are necessary for defense and nuclear applications. In others, it stems from a desire to be more self-sufficient so they can be more resilient to supply shocks.”
Proposed tariffs from Trump could also serve as a catalyst for US lithium output.
“With the incoming Trump administration, everyone has their eyes on how promises of increased tariffs will be implemented. Ultimately, heavier tariffs would accelerate efforts to onshore capacity in the US,” Megginson said.
“We may see the EU following suit with tariffs. There has been much said of the diversification of the lithium market away from China, but many of those efforts stalled in 2024 as the downswing in prices and a shifting geopolitical landscape made these endeavors more challenging," added the Benchmark senior analyst.
This nationalistic focus is also projected to impact refinement capacity and jurisdiction.
“While extracting the lithium from the ground has been successfully done in non-incumbent countries, such as in Brazil, Central Africa and Canada, with others expected to follow, the building of refining capacity has proved more difficult from a know-how and cost point of view, with a number of companies announcing that they are reining in some expansion plans, canceling some building projects or delaying decisions,” Adams of Fastmarkets said.
He went on to note that South Korea is an area to watch.
“Outside of China, South Korea has successfully ramped up new refining capacity, while Australia has had mixed results. The general issue is it’s hard to get the process right, and the CAPEX and OPEX outside of China means it is hard to be competitive. It will be interesting to see how Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) new Texas plant ramps up,” Adams noted.
Elsewhere, Adams pointed to the desire to secure supply chains. “Resource nationalism has also been an issue in some jurisdictions, with more countries now wanting processing capacity to be built in the country, and in order to force that they have banned the export of lithium-bearing ores. Zimbabwe a case in point,” he told INN.
Adams also pointed to Chile’s efforts to partially nationalize lithium producers, with the government mining company having controlling stakes in producers. “This could deter international investment in developing these mines,” he said. “In other metals, Indonesia has been very successful in playing the resource nationalism card.”
EV and ESS sectors to be key lithium price drivers
While the factors mentioned will undoubtedly impact the lithium industry in 2025, the market's most pronounced driver is the EV sector, and to a lesser extent the energy storage system (ESS) space.
“Demand for lithium-ion batteries is set to continue to grow rapidly in 2025. Benchmark forecasts that EV and ESS-related demand for lithium will both increase by over 30 percent year-on-year in 2025,” said Megginson.
To satiate this uptick in demand, “additional volumes of lithium will need to come to market.”
Megginson also noted that robust ESS demand is a positive demand signal for lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) cathode chemistries, but is unlikely to outweigh the mounting EV demand in China.
This sentiment was echoed by Berry of House Mountain Partners, who expects the EV and ESS sectors to continue dominating market share in terms of lithium end use. “EVs and ESS are roughly 80 percent of lithium demand, and this shows no signs of abating. Other lithium demand avenues will grow reliably at global GDP, but the future of lithium is tied to increasing proliferation of the lithium-ion battery,” he commented to INN.
Despite weak EV sales in Europe and North America in 2024, Fastmarkets’ Adams expects to see a recovery in demand from these regions, paired with strong sales in China. The dip in European sales, particularly in Germany after subsidy cuts in early 2024, mirrors China’s 2019 slowdown following subsidy reductions. However, as with China, the decline appears temporary, with a recovery expected as stricter emissions penalties take effect in Europe in 2025.
Additionally, Adams pointed to the growing adoption of extended-range EVs, which address range anxiety and use larger batteries than plug-in hybrid EVs, as a catalyst for lithium demand.
However, he noted that the outlook for EVs in the US remains uncertain as Trump takes the helm.
“ESS demand has been particularly strong, especially in China, and we expect that to continue as the need to build renewable energy generation capacity is ever present and has a wide footprint. For example, ESS buildout in India is strong, whereas demand for EVs is less strong, but again it is strong for 2/3 wheelers," said Adams. He added that low prices for battery raw materials have lowered prices for lithium-ion batteries, benefiting ESS projects.
Ultimately the lithium market is expected to see volatility in 2025, but could also present opportunities.
"I can see a 100 to 150 percent rebound in the lithium spot price easily in 2025. And again, I think there's a lot of opportunity there,” Del Real of Digest Publishing emphasized to INN.
For Megginson, the sector will be shaped by geopolitics and relations moving forward.
“Policy will have a huge role to play in driving price trends in 2025," he said.
"For instance, there remains uncertainty around how the tariffs promised by an incoming Trump administration in the US would be implemented, and how they could reshape the global lithium landscape."
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Beyond Lithium and Grid Battery Metals are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
6 Best-performing Lithium Stocks of 2024
Global lithium stocks and the overall lithium marketfaced a turbulent 2024, marked by oversupply, softer-than-expected electric vehicle (EV) demand and geopolitical tensions that reshaped the industry.
Prices for lithium carbonate plummeted 22 percent, driven by a supply glut and weaker demand outside of China.
Amid this challenging landscape, mergers and acquisitions surged. The year started out with the completion of Livent and Allkem's merger, which birthed Arcadium Lithium (NYSE:ALTM,ASX:LTM). Then, in October, major diversified miner Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) announced plans to acquire Arcadium.
Meanwhile, EV demand rebounded late in the year, led by record sales in China.
Even against this tumultuous backdrop, some lithium stocks listed in Canada and Australia performed strongly. Below the Investing News Network has gathered the top gainers year-to-date using TradingView’s stock screener. All lithium stocks listed had market caps above $50 million in their respective currencies when data was gathered.
Data for Canadian stocks was collected on December 27, 2024, and data for Australian stocks was gathered on December 31, 2024. While US lithium companies were considered, none were up year-to-date at the time data was collected.
1. Q2 Metals (TSXV:QTWO)
Year-to-date gain: 220 percent
Market cap: C$106.11 million
Share price: C$0.80
Exploration firm Q2 Metals is exploring its flagship Mia lithium property in the Eeyou Istchee James Bay region of Québec, Canada. The property contains the Mia trend, which spans over 10 kilometers. Also included in Q2 Metals' portfolio is the Stellar lithium property, comprised of 77 claims and located 6 kilometers north of the Mia property.
In 2024, Q2 Metals also focused on exploring the Cisco lithium property, which is situated in the same region. On February 29, the company entered into three separate option agreements to gain a 100 percent interest in Cisco. The news caused its share price to skyrocket, reaching a Q1 high of C$0.54 on March 4.
Q2 Metals closed the acquisition of Cisco in June and now wholly owns the project.
In mid-May, the company announced the start of a summer drill program at the Cisco property. It has since released multiple progress updates, including the confirmation of eight new mineralized zones on July 8.
On October 1, Q2 Metals shared assays from the drill program at the Cisco site. The company's share price spiked on the news, ultimately climbing to an all-time high of C$1.48 on October 11.
“These assays continue to validate the potential and scale of the Cisco Property as that of a larger mineralized system,” said Neil McCallum, vice president of exploration. “One important observation of these results is the higher-grade nature of the larger mineralized system as we test and track the system progressing to the south.”
By the end of the Cisco drill program, the company had drilled 17 holes covering 6,360 meters in total. Q2 Metals released the final results from the campaign on December 17.
As of mid-December, Q2 Metals had the exclusive right to acquire a 100 percent interest in 545 additional mineral claims, which would triple its land position at the Cisco lithium property. The new claims, located south of the original property, enhance prospects for development and future mining infrastructure.
2. Power Metals (TSXV:PWM)
Year-to-date gains: 73.08 percent
Market cap: C$67.57 million
Share price: C$0.45
Exploration company Power Metals holds a portfolio of diversified assets in Ontario and Québec, Canada.
In late February, Power Metals commenced a winter drill program at its Case Lake property in Northeastern Ontario. The company said the program was designed to expand and define lithium-cesium-tantalum mineralization, building on previous work that revealed high-grade lithium and cesium mineralization.
Company shares rose to an H1 high of C$0.47 at the end of March. The increase coincided with the news that Power Metals had staked the 7,000 hectare Pelletier project, consisting of 337 mineral claims in Northeast Ontario.
According to the company, the project features lithium-cesium-tantalum potential, with peraluminous S-type pegmatitic granites intruding into metasedimentary and amphibolite formations.
During the fourth quarter, Power Metals identified a new pegmatite zone at Case Lake through soil sampling. The samples from the zone, located north-northwest of its West Joe prospect, revealed elevated levels of cesium, tantalum, lithium and rubidium, highlighting promising drill targets for the winter program.
The company also launched a Phase 2 drone magnetic survey that is geared at refining its structural model for critical minerals targets at West Joe and the Main zone ahead of 2025 exploration efforts.
In a December 10 exploration update, Power Metals said its partner Black Diamond Drilling, a First Nations-owned drilling company, had completed 16 drill holes for 971 meters of the planned 2,000 meter program. Environmental studies were also ongoing. Shares rose over the following week to a year-to-date high of C$0.49 on December 16.
3. Lithium Chile (TSXV:LITH)
Year-to-date gains: 45.28 percent
Market cap: C$163 million
Share price: C$0.77
South America-focused Lithium Chile owns several lithium land packages in Chile and Argentina.
On April 9, the company announced a 24 percent increase in the resource estimate for its Arizaro property in Argentina. The new total for the project is 4.12 million metric tons (MT) of lithium carbonate equivalent, with 261,000 MT in the measured category, 2.24 million MT in the indicated category and 1.62 million MT in the inferred category.
Not long after, on April 18, the company reported the creation of two wholly owned Canadian subsidiaries — Lithium Chile 2.0 and Kairos Gold — as part of a spinout to separate its Chilean and Argentinian assets.
Lithium Chile will retain its Argentinian lithium projects, and transfer its 111,978 hectares of Chilean lithium properties to Lithium Chile 2.0 and its portfolio of gold assets in Chile to Kairos Gold.
In a July operational update for the Arizaro project, the company highlighted that a drill hole had encountered "a brine-rich, sandy formation encountered from 161 to 500-metres."
In an August announcement, Lithium Chile noted that the spinout of Lithium Chile 2.0 was reliant on finalizing a strategic deal for Arizaro. As for Kairos Gold, its spinout was effective on December 4.
In mid-December, Lithium Chile penned a letter of intent to sell its 80 percent stake in Arizaro.
The company said the buyer “is a large, Asian based company founded over two decades ago (and) a diversified enterprise with significant interests in mining, renewable energy, and technology sectors.”
The move to sell its flagship asset signals a strategic realignment for Lithium Chile. Although company shares reached a year-to-date high of C$0.88 in March, the recent sale news has pushed shares to the C$0.80 level.
Top Australian lithium stocks
1. Vulcan Energy Resources (ASX:VUL)
Year-to-date gain: 84.48 percent
Market cap: AU$1.19 billion
Share price: AU$5.35
Europe-focused Vulcan Energy Resources aims to support a carbon-neutral future by producing lithium and renewable energy from geothermal brine. The company is currently developing the Zero Carbon lithium project in Germany's Upper Rhine Valley. Vulcan is utilizing a proprietary alumina-based adsorbent-type direct lithium extraction (DLE) process to produce lithium with an end goal of supplying sustainable lithium for the European EV market.
On April 11, Vulcan announced the commencement of lithium chloride production at its lithium extraction optimization plant in Germany. According to the company, the milestone marks the first lithium chemical production in Europe using local supply. The plant has consistently exhibited over 90 percent lithium extraction efficiency.
The company already has binding lithium offtake agreements in place with major automakers and battery manufacturers, and expects to supply enough lithium for 500,000 EVs during the first phase of production.
During Q3, Vulcan received its first licenses for lithium and geothermal exploration in Alsace, France. The permits cover 463 square kilometers, expanding Vulcan's total licensed area in the Upper Rhine Valley to 2,234 square kilometers.
In early August, Vulcan began commissioning its downstream lithium hydroxide optimization plant (CLEOP) near Frankfurt, Germany, which will process the lithium chloride concentrate from its DLE plant.
A mid-October release from Vulcan outlines a memorandum of understanding with industrial software designer AVEVA. The partnership will see AVEVA build a digital framework for Vulcan’s Zero Carbon lithium project.
Also in October, the company earned S&P Global’s highest "dark green" sustainability rating, a first for the mining sector, under its Green Financing Framework. On November 8, Vulcan announced it had commenced lithium hydroxide production at CLEOP. The milestone coincided with an AU$162 million funding infusion from Germany’s Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection and the European Recovery and Resilience Facility.
To end the year, Vulcan announced the signing of a AU$1.45 billion conditional debt commitment letter with Export Finance Australia and a group of seven commercial banks.
2. Ioneer (ASX:INR)
Year-to-date gain: 6.67 percent
Market cap: AU$353.35 million
Share price: AU$0.16
Australia-listed Ioneer owns the Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron project in Nevada, US. According to the company, the project is considered the “sole lithium-boron deposit in North America.”
As part of the permitting process for Rhyolite Ridge, Ioneer completed and submitted an administrative draft environmental impact statement (EIS) to the US Bureau of Land Management (BLM) in mid-January. In mid-September, Ioneer announced that the BLM had published the final EIS, moving the company closer to construction.
The comprehensive review process addressed environmental concerns, particularly regarding the protection of the endangered Tiehm's buckwheat plant found at the site. Ioneer has committed to measures aimed at safeguarding the plant's habitat. In October, Ioneer secured final federal approval for Rhyolite Ridge.
The project became the first US lithium mine authorized under the Biden administration.
Rhyolite Ridge is projected to produce sufficient lithium for approximately 370,000 EV batteries annually. Construction is slated to commence in 2025, with production expected by 2028.
3. Prospect Resources (ASX:PSC)
Year-to-date gain: 2.25 percent
Market cap: AU$52.03 million
Share price: AU$0.09
Africa-focused explorer Prospect Resources holds a diversified portfolio of assets in Zimbabwe, Zambia and Namibia. The company’s lithium prospects, Omaruru and Step Aside, are in Namibia and Zimbabwe, respectively.
In late June, Prospect released an update on its exploration activities, reporting strong assay results from Phase 4 diamond drilling at the Step Aside lithium project in Zimbabwe and follow-up Phase 2 drilling at the Omaruru lithium project. Managing Director Sam Hosack highlighted the significant mineralization potential at both projects.
Moving forward, Prospect plans to slow down spending at its lithium projects as it turns to its newly acquired Mumbezhi copper project in Zambia. The company believes it can monetize Step Aside in the near term to aid in this goal.
In its June quarterly results, Prospect noted the completion of drilling and fieldwork for a Phase 4 diamond drilling program at the Step Aside lithium project in Zimbabwe, with no further exploration planned.
The project is being prepared for sale to help fund the Mumbezhi copper project.
Meanwhile, Phase 2 drilling at the Omaruru lithium project is complete, and the company has reduced spending to holding costs as its focus shifts to the Mumbezhi project.
In its September quarterly report, Prospect said it was discontinuing its Bikita Gem earn-in project in Southeastern Zimbabwe after drilling results failed to identify economically viable volumes of petalite-rich lithium mineralization.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Zijin Mining in Talks to Acquire Stake in US$6.4 Billion Chinese Lithium Miner
China's Zijin Mining Group (OTC Pink:ZIJMF,SHA:601899) is reportedly in negotiations to acquire a potential controlling interest in Zangge Mining (SZSE:000408), a Chinese lithium producer.
According to Bloomberg, Zijin Mining is looking to purchase stakes from Zangge Mining’s two largest shareholders, Tibet Zangge Venture Capital and Ningbo Meishan Bonded Port Area Xinsha Hongyun Investment Management. Together, they control approximately 40 percent of Zangge Mining, which is valued at 46.6 billion yuan (US$6.4 billion).
Zangge Mining primarily produces potash for fertilizer, but derives around a third of its revenue from lithium extraction. Its lithium operations focus on salt lake brines in Qinghai, China’s mineral-rich western region.
Zangge Mining reported production of 9,278 metric tons of lithium carbonate in the first nine months of 2024.
Zijin Mining, a producer of copper and gold, has been expanding aggressively, with Chairman Chen Jinghe overseeing its transformation from a gold miner in Southeastern China to a global leader in resource extraction.
Acquiring a stake in Zangge Mining would boost Zijin Mining’s position in the lithium market while enhancing its control over the Julong copper project in Tibet, a joint venture between the two companies. Last year, they secured regulatory approval to increase Julong’s output to 350,000 metric tons per day, establishing it as China’s largest single copper mine.
Beyond China, Zijin Mining is also advancing lithium projects abroad.
The company plans to start lithium production in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2026, although it has postponed the start of its Argentina and Tibet projects to 2025 due to weak lithium prices and permitting delays.
The company’s strategic plan aims for annual production capacity of up to 300,000 metric tons of lithium by 2028. While its current output is limited, the acquisition of Zangge Mining could accelerate its progress toward that target.
Discussions are ongoing and are subject to agreement terms, board approval and regulatory compliance.
Lithium industry M&A heating up
Zijin Mining’s interest in Zangge Mining is part of a trend toward lithium M&A activity.
Major players like Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) have also pursued acquisitions in the lithium space, evidenced by Rio’s US$6.7 billion agreement to acquire Arcadium Lithium (NYSE:ALTM,ASX:LTM) last year.
Lithium remains a critical component in the transition to clean energy, and companies like Zijin Mining are leveraging their expertise in resource development to capture market opportunities.
The lithium market has experienced significant volatility since late 2022, with prices plummeting nearly 90 percent from their peak. However, this downturn in the industry has created opportunities for acquisitions as producers seek to consolidate and optimize operations amid weaker financial conditions.
By expanding its lithium footprint, Zijin Mining is positioning itself to play a key role in the global energy transition.
Zijin Mining is expected to release more details on the potential acquisition in the coming months.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Lithium Market Forecast: Top Trends for Lithium in 2025
After a tumultuous 2024 that saw lithium carbonate prices tumble 22 percent amid a global supply glut, analysts are predicting another year of volatility for the important battery metal.
Even so, some balance is expected to return — according to S&P Global, the lithium surplus is projected to narrow to 33,000 metric tons in 2025, down from 84,000 metric tons in 2024, as production cuts begin to temper excess supply.
Demand from the electric vehicle (EV) market remains a key driver, with China maintaining its dominance after record-breaking sales in late 2024. In North America, the EV sector will face uncertainty under the Trump administration.
As 2025 unfolds, the lithium sector will also have to navigate geopolitical tensions, including rising tariffs on Chinese EVs and escalating trade disputes that are reshaping global supply chains.
“The name of the game in lithium (in 2025) is oversupply. Excess production in places like Africa and China, coupled with softer EV sales, has absolutely hammered the lithium price both in 2023 and 2024. I wouldn't think we can dig ourselves out of this hole in 2025 despite reliably strong EV sales,” said Chris Berry, president of House Mountain Partners.
In his view, the next 12 months could be unpredictable in terms of lithium price activity.
“Lithium price volatility is a feature of the energy transition and not a bug,” he said. “You have a small but fast-growing market, opaque pricing, legislation designed to rapidly build critical infrastructure underpinned by lithium and other metals, and this is a recipe for boom-and-bust cycles demonstrated by extremely high and extremely low pricing.”
For Gerardo Del Real of Digest Publishing, seeing prices for lithium contract by 80 percent over the last two years evidences a bottoming in the lithium market and also serves as a strong signal.
“I think the fact that we're up some 7 percent to close the year in 2024 in the spot price leads me to believe that we're going to see a pretty robust rebound in 2025. I think that's going to extend to the producers that have obviously been affected by the lower prices, but also to the quality exploration companies,” Del Real said in December.
He believes contrarian investors with a mid to long-term outlook have a prime opportunity to re-enter the space.
Lithium market to see more balance in 2025
As mentioned, widespread lithium production cuts are expected to help bring the sector into balance in 2025.
William Adams, head of base metals research at Fastmarkets, told the Investing News Network (INN) via email that output cuts for the battery metal have already started inside and outside of China.
“We expect further cutbacks if prices do not recover soon in the new year. While we have seen some cuts, we are also seeing some producers continue with their expansion plans and some advanced junior miners ramp up production. So we are now in a situation where we are waiting for demand to catch up with production again," he said.
Adams and Fastmarkets expect to see lithium demand catch up to production in late 2025. However, he warned that refreshed demand is unlikely to push prices to previous highs set in 2022.
“We do not expect to see a return to the highs we saw in 2022, as there are more producers and mines around now and there has been a buildup of stocks along the supply chain, especially in China,” he said.
“This should prevent any actual shortage being seen in 2025, but stocks can be held in tight hands, and if the market senses a tighter market, then they may be encouraged to restock, which could lift prices. But the restart of idle capacity in such a case is likely to keep prices rises in check," Adams added.
Analysts at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence are taking a similar stance, with a slightly more optimistic tone.
“In 2025, prices are likely to remain fairly rangebound. This is because Benchmark forecasts a relatively balanced market next year in terms of supply and demand,” said Adam Megginson, senior analyst at the firm. He also referenced output reductions in Australia and China, noting that they may not be as impactful as some market watchers anticipate.
This past July, Albemarle (NYSE:ALB), announced plans to halve processing capacity in Australia and pause an expansion at its Kemerton plant amid the prolonged lithium price slump. One of the plant’s two processing trains will be placed on care and maintenance, while construction of a third train has been scrapped.
“These supply contractions are likely to be balanced by capacity expansions due to come online in China in 2025, as well as in African countries like Zimbabwe and Mali,” Megginson said.
“Expect supply from these other regions to play a bigger role in the market in 2025.”
Unpredictable geopolitical situation to impact sector
Geopolitics is likely to play a key role in the lithium market this year, both directly and indirectly.
In 2024, the Biden administration raised tariffs on Chinese EVs to over 100 percent to counter alleged unfair trade practices, aiming to boost domestic production, but drawing criticism over potential supply chain disruptions.
Canada followed suit with similar 100 percent tariffs on Chinese EVs, as well as a 25 percent surcharge on Chinese steel and aluminum, citing the need to protect local industries. China has responded with World Trade Organization complaints against Canada and the US, along with the EU, labeling the measures protectionist.
Whether these tariffs against China will be enough to bolster the domestic North American EV market remains to be seen; however, the issue could become even more complicated if US President-elect Donald Trump makes good on his threats to levy tariffs on America's continental trade partners, Canada and Mexico.
Del Real doesn't expect US tariffs on critical minerals like lithium, but expressed concerns about a trade war.
“The bottom line is getting into a tit-for-tat with China is a dangerous proposition because of the leverage they have, especially in the commodity space, and so the tariffs are going to be passed down to consumers," he said. In his view, Trump's tariff threats could be more of a negotiating tactic than a sustained strategy.
More broadly, the experts INN heard from expect resource nationalism, near shoring and supply chain security to play prevalent roles in the lithium market and the critical minerals space as a whole.
“There's no doubt that lithium in particular has become politicized as policy makers across the globe have awoken from their slumber and realized that dependence on critical materials and supply chains in a single country is a bad idea for both economic and national security,” said Berry, noting that China had this realization decades ago.
“There is no easy fix, and you're looking at roughly a decade before any western countries have any sort of a regionalized or 'friend-shored' supply chain. Accelerating this would involve massive capital investment, patience and most importantly, political will. North America in particular has made great strides in recent years, but we have a long way to go. I'm not sure if fully decoupling from China is even a good idea," the battery metals expert added.
For Benchmark’s Megginson, 2025 could be a year of increased domestic development.
“We have seen several countries attempting to adopt some form of 'resource nationalism.' In some cases, this has been driven by wanting to onshore the production of critical minerals that are necessary for defense and nuclear applications. In others, it stems from a desire to be more self-sufficient so they can be more resilient to supply shocks.”
Proposed tariffs from Trump could also serve as a catalyst for US lithium output.
“With the incoming Trump administration, everyone has their eyes on how promises of increased tariffs will be implemented. Ultimately, heavier tariffs would accelerate efforts to onshore capacity in the US,” Megginson said.
“We may see the EU following suit with tariffs. There has been much said of the diversification of the lithium market away from China, but many of those efforts stalled in 2024 as the downswing in prices and a shifting geopolitical landscape made these endeavors more challenging," added the Benchmark senior analyst.
This nationalistic focus is also projected to impact refinement capacity and jurisdiction.
“While extracting the lithium from the ground has been successfully done in non-incumbent countries, such as in Brazil, Central Africa and Canada, with others expected to follow, the building of refining capacity has proved more difficult from a know-how and cost point of view, with a number of companies announcing that they are reining in some expansion plans, canceling some building projects or delaying decisions,” Adams of Fastmarkets said.
He went on to note that South Korea is an area to watch.
“Outside of China, South Korea has successfully ramped up new refining capacity, while Australia has had mixed results. The general issue is it’s hard to get the process right, and the CAPEX and OPEX outside of China means it is hard to be competitive. It will be interesting to see how Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) new Texas plant ramps up,” Adams noted.
Elsewhere, Adams pointed to the desire to secure supply chains. “Resource nationalism has also been an issue in some jurisdictions, with more countries now wanting processing capacity to be built in the country, and in order to force that they have banned the export of lithium-bearing ores. Zimbabwe a case in point,” he told INN.
Adams also pointed to Chile’s efforts to partially nationalize lithium producers, with the government mining company having controlling stakes in producers. “This could deter international investment in developing these mines,” he said. “In other metals, Indonesia has been very successful in playing the resource nationalism card.”
EV and ESS sectors to be key lithium price drivers
While the factors mentioned will undoubtedly impact the lithium industry in 2025, the market's most pronounced driver is the EV sector, and to a lesser extent the energy storage system (ESS) space.
“Demand for lithium-ion batteries is set to continue to grow rapidly in 2025. Benchmark forecasts that EV and ESS-related demand for lithium will both increase by over 30 percent year-on-year in 2025,” said Megginson.
To satiate this uptick in demand, “additional volumes of lithium will need to come to market.”
Megginson also noted that robust ESS demand is a positive demand signal for lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) cathode chemistries, but is unlikely to outweigh the mounting EV demand in China.
This sentiment was echoed by Berry of House Mountain Partners, who expects the EV and ESS sectors to continue dominating market share in terms of lithium end use. “EVs and ESS are roughly 80 percent of lithium demand, and this shows no signs of abating. Other lithium demand avenues will grow reliably at global GDP, but the future of lithium is tied to increasing proliferation of the lithium-ion battery,” he commented to INN.
Despite weak EV sales in Europe and North America in 2024, Fastmarkets’ Adams expects to see a recovery in demand from these regions, paired with strong sales in China. The dip in European sales, particularly in Germany after subsidy cuts in early 2024, mirrors China’s 2019 slowdown following subsidy reductions. However, as with China, the decline appears temporary, with a recovery expected as stricter emissions penalties take effect in Europe in 2025.
Additionally, Adams pointed to the growing adoption of extended-range EVs, which address range anxiety and use larger batteries than plug-in hybrid EVs, as a catalyst for lithium demand.
However, he noted that the outlook for EVs in the US remains uncertain as Trump takes the helm.
“ESS demand has been particularly strong, especially in China, and we expect that to continue as the need to build renewable energy generation capacity is ever present and has a wide footprint. For example, ESS buildout in India is strong, whereas demand for EVs is less strong, but again it is strong for 2/3 wheelers," said Adams. He added that low prices for battery raw materials have lowered prices for lithium-ion batteries, benefiting ESS projects.
Ultimately the lithium market is expected to see volatility in 2025, but could also present opportunities.
"I can see a 100 to 150 percent rebound in the lithium spot price easily in 2025. And again, I think there's a lot of opportunity there,” Del Real of Digest Publishing emphasized to INN.
For Megginson, the sector will be shaped by geopolitics and relations moving forward.
“Policy will have a huge role to play in driving price trends in 2025," he said.
"For instance, there remains uncertainty around how the tariffs promised by an incoming Trump administration in the US would be implemented, and how they could reshape the global lithium landscape."
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Beyond Lithium and Grid Battery Metals are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
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