Utilities have so far stayed largely on the sidelines, but expectations are mounting for a wave of contracting in the second half.
H1 2025 uranium pirce performance. Chart via Cameco.
Trade tensions and tariff threats from US President Donald Trump have been a catalyst for volatility in the uranium market through the first half of 2025.
Term uranium contracting remains well below replacement levels despite firm prices and growing demand, according to Oceanwall’s Ben Finegold.
“Term prices are sitting around US$80 per pound right now — roughly US$6 to US$7 above spot—but it’s still extremely difficult to get reliable data on actual volumes and pricing,” Finegold said during the Bloor Street Capital Virtual Uranium Conference in June.
By mid-year, only 25 million pounds had been contracted, putting the market on track to fall 75 percent short of replacement-rate contracting. That shortfall has been a recurring issue, with contracting volumes lagging for more than a decade.
While 2023 saw the strongest term contracting in years at 160 million pounds, about 30 percent of that came from a single deal. In 2024, 110 million pounds were contracted, well above where 2025’s totals are likely to fall.
Uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on term uranium contracting, particularly among US utilities, which remain unsure about the future of US-Russia relations and whether Russian supply will remain accessible.
“There’s a certain naivety among fuel buyers,” Finegold said, referencing a recent conversation with a former buyer who suggested utilities have grown used to a decade-long environment where they could easily dip in and out of the spot or term market.
But that era may be ending.
“I just don’t see a situation where the supply-demand fundamentals get better for utilities,” he added.
Despite global momentum — 31 countries aim to triple or quadruple nuclear capacity by 2050 and the US government has pledged US$75 billion toward domestic reactor builds — contracting volumes remain surprisingly low.
“It’s a pressure cooker,” Finegold said. “At some point something has to give, and when utilities return to the term market, history shows they tend to do so all at once.”
From a structural perspective, the market is grappling with a widening supply deficit: global production in 2024 met just 80 to 90 percent of reactor demand, with the shortfall made up through inventories and spot purchases — a buffer that is fading fast.
Meanwhile, development pipelines are thin, projects suffer regulatory delays and geopolitical constraints, such as sanctions on Russia, further limit available supply options. Further compounding the issue are the 69 nuclear reactors that are in the process of being built, in addition to the 440 operational reactors around the globe.
The need for uranium is especially prevalent in the US, where 45 million pounds are consumed annually. The country produces roughly 1 percent of that.
In an effort to remedy this discrepancy, President Trump issued several Executive Orders in early 2025 and targeted energy production in his “big beautiful bill.”
Included within these measures Trump has proposed an increase in domestic nuclear energy capacity, targeting 400 gigawatts by 2050.
The uptick would mark a fourfold increase from the country’s current 100 gigawatts of capacity and far exceed the International Atomic Energy Agency’s projected range of 89 to 142 gigawatts for all of North America.
If realized, this expansion would push US uranium demand from about 50 million pounds of U3O8 equivalent annually to nearly 200 million pounds. That's higher than how much uranium is currently produced globally, which UxC estimates will be 164 million pounds for 2025.
“The US is signaling a once-in-a-generation commitment to domestic uranium independence and advanced nuclear deployment,” Sprott's (TSX:SII,NYSE:SII) Jacob White wrote in a June uranium report.
While the scale of future demand will depend on execution challenges such as permitting, grid infrastructure and financing, analysts say the scenario presents “asymmetrically positive” risk, offering potential upside to long-term uranium demand forecasts.
This thesis was further bolstered when the Trump admin fast tracked permitting for Anfield Energy’s (TSXV:AEC,OTCQB:ANLDF) Velvet-Wood project in Utah and Laramide Resources' (TSX:LAM,ASX:LAM,OTCQX:LMRXF) Crownpoint-Churchrock and La Jara Mesa uranium projects in New Mexico.
“For the first time under the current policy framework, a uranium mine, Anfield’s Velvet-Wood project, received US approval in just 14 days,” the Sprott report noted.
“This demonstrates how quickly support for domestic supply can translate into tangible action. The project was permitted under Trump’s emergency energy declaration, reinforcing a shift toward uranium as a strategically vital input.”
Elsewhere, uranium supply could face headwinds. Kazakhstan, which accounts for roughly 40 percent of global uranium output, is unlikely to boost production meaningfully.
“I see Kazakhstan as sort of the 800 pound gorilla in the room,” Finegold said.
Kazatomprom, the country’s state-owned uranium company, reduced its 2025 production guidance by 12 to 17 percent due to a critical shortage of sulfuric acid, the chemical essential for its in-situ leach mining process.
Further complicating the outlook, the company’s planned acid production facility isn’t expected to come online until 2026 or later. Additionally, anticipated increases in Kazakhstan’s mineral extraction tax beginning in 2025 threaten to raise production costs significantly, eroding the company’s historical cost advantage over peers.
Finegold also sees potential issues arising in projected Canadian supply. He noted that the market assumes that developers like NexGen Energy (TSX:NXE,NYSE:NXE), Denison Mines (TSX:DML,NYSEAMERICAN:DNN), Fission Uranium (TSX:FCU) and Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN,OTC:PALAF) will hit timelines and budgets.
“And that's just not how uranium mining works,” he said, pointing to similar issues with North American counterpart Peninsula Energy ASX:PEN,OTC:PENMF).
"Peninsula just canceled contracts for 2 million pounds — that demand doesn’t disappear,” he said. “It’ll need to be filled elsewhere, likely via the spot market.”
As highlighted in the Sprott report, uranium’s mid-year price ignited a rally in mining equities; the Northshore Global Uranium Mining Index posted a 16.22 percent month-over-month gain in May.
“This sharp equity rebound points to the sector’s leverage to increases in the spot price and catch-up potential, especially as investor sentiment begins to recover,” Sprott's White wrote.
Furthermore, the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust’s (TSX:U.U,OTCQX:SRUUF) mid-June US$200 million capital raise bolstered market sentiment and boosted uranium prices and equities.
As John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott, explained during the virtual uranium event, the move was a strategic play aimed at taking advantage of what the firm viewed as a temporary and unsustainable dip in uranium prices.
He noted investors from Australia led the raise, followed by ones in North America and Europe.
Van Eck's Uranium and Nuclear Technologies UCITS ETF (LSE:NUCL) also made large gains in 2025, growing its assets under management to over US$500 million in mid-June and then to US$926.6 million by late July.
Discussing the significant uptick with the Investing News Network, Kamil Sudiyarov, senior product manager at VanEck Europe, attributed the growth to heightened interest in the energy sector.
“Nuclear re-entered the public conversation in 2024,” said Sudiyarov, noting the shift followed years of muted sentiment in the wake of the 2011 Fukushima disaster.
While 2022 marked the initial turning point — spurred by Europe’s energy crisis and an urgent search for stable power sources — it wasn’t until last year that nuclear power fully took center stage.
“In 2022 and 2023, the uranium price story led the narrative, but in 2024, nuclear itself became the headline,” he said, pointing to growing political support and corporate endorsement, including power purchase agreements signed by major US tech firms.
The fund also benefited from its lighter exposure to uranium prices compared to peers, allowing it to outperform during a period of spot price softness. “That combination of strong nuclear sentiment and more resilient positioning helped us attract significant inflows.”
Tracking the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index, the Van Eck fund holds roughly 33 companies across the uranium fuel cycle, reactor technologies, services and utilities.
The ETF is structured around three distinct pillars, according to Sudiyarov.
“The first pillar is uranium miners and companies in the uranium business,” he said, noting this includes traditional miners as well as firms like Yellow Cake (LSE:YCA,OTCQX:YLLXF) that stockpile physical uranium.
The second category focuses on nuclear pure plays, including small modular reactor (SMR) developers like NuScale (NYSE:SMR) and domestic nuclear fuel producers like Centrus Energy (NYSE:LEU).
The third pillar was developed to broaden exposure beyond competitors’ uranium-heavy strategies.
“We wanted a more even split,” Sudiyarov explained. “So we decided to tap into industrial conglomerates with significant nuclear business units.”
On the investor side, interest in uranium appears to be growing.
“Last year, I had maybe one or two calls about uranium. This year, I’ve had a lot already,” he said, suggesting rising attention from institutional investors.
Growing political acceptance, especially around energy security and defense, has helped reduce the hesitation seen among more conservative investors.
“Once they realize the theme is back in vogue, they feel more comfortable,” he said.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
GTI Energy presents an intriguing opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the uranium sector, given its focus on ISR projects in the US aligning well with macro trends in the nuclear energy industry and geopolitical shifts favouring domestic uranium production.
GTI Energy (ASX:GTR,OTCQB:GTRIF) is an Australia-based uranium exploration and development company focused on uranium projects in Wyoming, USA, that are amenable for in-situ recovery (ISR). In uranium mining, ISR is the lowest cost and least environmentally damaging form of uranium recovery, especially when alkaline leach and ion exchange processes are utilised.
The company’s flagship Lo Herma project in the Powder River Basin is a sandstone-hosted roll front uranium deposit, which contains a recently updated mineral resource of 8.57 million pounds (Mlbs) of U₃O₈ at an average grade of 630 parts per million (JORC 2012 compliant), with a substantial additional exploration target in the range of 6 to 11 Mlbs – GTI recently completed an interim Scoping Study on this project. GTI also holds projects in the Great Divide Basin (inferred resource of 1.66 Mlbs) and Green Mountain areas of Wyoming, as well as earlier-stage conventional uranium/vanadium assets in Utah. As of the latest update, GTI has delineated total combined uranium resources of 10.23 Mlbs (indicated and inferred) and combined exploration targets ranging from 12.14 to 15.21 million tonnes across its Wyoming projects.
Wyoming’s ISR uranium processing assets and GTI project locations
GTI is positioning itself to take advantage of the worsening uranium supply deficit and rapidly growing demand for uranium, particularly from the United States. The US remains the world’s largest consumer of uranium but imports over 95 percent of its supply. GTI’s strategy centres on developing low-cost ISR uranium projects in Wyoming – historically one of the most productive uranium regions in the US – with established infrastructure, regulatory support, and proximity to existing ISR processing facilities.
The uranium market is experiencing a serious supply deficit and a significant resurgence in demand driven by several factors:
In the United States specifically, there is bipartisan policy support for revitalising the domestic uranium industry. Key initiatives include the formation of a strategic uranium reserve, over US$6 billion in grants for existing nuclear facilities, and tax incentives for new builds under the Inflation Reduction Act. Additionally, the US Department of Energy has called for tripling US nuclear capacity to 300 gigawatts by 2050. Demand signals are also coming from private sector growth, particularly AI-driven data centre development and long-term net-zero pledges by institutional investors and banks.
GTI Energy’s project strategy
In the longer term, GTI recognises the value potential of consolidation within the fragmented US uranium sector. The company remains open to strategic partnerships, joint ventures or merger and acquisition opportunities that could accelerate its development timeline, enhance scale, and unlock synergies. Such initiatives could ultimately strengthen GTI’s path to production and improve its overall value proposition to shareholders.
GTI's focus on Wyoming ISR projects positions it well to capitalize on trends in the uranium sector. ISR mining is generally faster to build, lower cost, and more environmentally friendly than conventional mining methods. Wyoming has a long history of uranium production and hosts current producers and several additional permitted processing facilities, potentially allowing for rapid development of new projects.
The Wyoming projects – comprising the Lo Herma, Great Divide Basin, and Green Mountain projects – are located in the Powder River and Great Divide Basins.
JORC Resources and Exploration Targets
The company’s exploration work is currently centered on advancing its 100 percent owned flagship Lo Herma project, where drilling in 2023 and 2024 successfully verified and expanded the historical drill hole database. As of December 2024, the project hosts a JORC-compliant mineral resource estimate of 8.57 Mlbs of U₃O₈ at an average grade of 630 ppm, comprising 2.78 Mlbs indicated and 5.79 Mlbs inferred.
The Lo Herma project is located just 10 miles from Cameco's Smith Ranch-Highland facility – the largest ISR uranium plant in the United States – and is ideally situated for potential future production synergies. In addition to the current resource, the company has defined an exploration target of 6 to 11 Mlbs, with over 950 drill holes completed across the project area.
GTI completed hydrogeologic field testing and metallurgical leach studies during the March 2025 quarter. Results demonstrated that Lo Herma mineralisation is amenable to alkaline ISR recovery with uranium recoveries averaging 75 percent, consistent with other ISR operations in the district.
Following the successful completion of these studies, GTI delivered an interim scoping study in Q2 2025, managed by BRS Engineering. The study confirmed the project’s potential viability and outlined attractive baseline economics for both central processing and satellite mining development options. The company is now finalising plans for a follow-up drilling campaign in H2 2025. This next phase will include infill and step-out drilling to increase overall mineral resources and upgrade resource classification, while collecting further hydrogeological and metallurgical data.
The company continues to progress its additional Wyoming projects, including the Great Divide Basin and Green Mountain areas. Drilling is permitted for 2025, positioning GTI to unlock further value across these strategic tenements.
The Great Divide Basin project includes the Thor, Logray, Loki, Odin, Teebo and Wicket claims. It holds a JORC inferred mineral resource of 1.66 Mlbs of U₃O₈ at 570 ppm, and a defined exploration target of 6.55 to 8.11 million tonnes grading 420 to 530 ppm. The area benefits from significant historical exploration data and proximity to major uranium infrastructure, including Ur-Energy’s Lost Creek plant and Rio Tinto’s Sweetwater Mill.
GTI’s footprint in this region was expanded by acquiring the Green Mountain project, which includes 5,585 hectares of contiguous claims directly adjoining Rio Tinto’s tenements. Historical drilling and geophysical surveys confirm the presence of uranium mineralisation in sandstone-hosted roll fronts within the Battle Springs formation.
Green Mountain lies adjacent to notable regional projects including Energy Fuels’ Sheep Mountain (30 Mlbs), Ur-Energy’s Lost Soldier, and UEC’s Antelope deposits, positioning GTI near major development and production infrastructure in the basin.
GTI’s Henry Mountains project in Utah is a brownfields uranium-vanadium opportunity located within the prolific Colorado Plateau uranium province. Exploration has focused on a 5 km mineralised trend between the Rat Nest and Jeffrey claim groups, including the Section 36 state lease.
Uranium and vanadium mineralisation in this area is shallow – typically 20 to 30 metres deep – and has historically supported significant production. Since 1904, the district has yielded more than 92 Mlbs of U₃O₈ and 482 Mlbs of V₂O₅ from sandstone-hosted ores. The project remains a strategic asset with future development or transactional optionality as GTI advances its Wyoming portfolio.
Bruce Lane has significant experience with ASX-listed and large industrial companies. Lane has held management positions in many global blue-chip companies as well as resource companies and startups in New Zealand, Europe and Australia. He holds a master’s degree from London Business School and is a graduate member of the Australian Institute of Company Directors. Lane has led a number of successful acquisitions, fund raising and exploration programs of uranium and other minerals projects during the last 20 years, most notably with ASX listed companies Atom Energy, Stonehenge Metals and Fenix Resources (FEX).
ISR uranium specialist Matt Hartmann is an executive and technical leader with more than 20 years of international experience and substantial uranium exploration and project development experience. He first entered the uranium mining space in 2005 and followed a career path that has included senior technical roles with Strathmore Minerals and Uranium Resources. He is also a former principal consultant at SRK Consulting where he provided advisory services to explorers, producers and prospective uranium investors. Hartmann’s ISR uranium experience has brought him through the entire cycle of the business, from exploration, project studies and development, to production and well field reclamation. He has provided technical and managerial expertise to a large number of uranium ISR projects across the US including, Smith Ranch – Highland ISR Uranium Mine (Cameco), Rosita ISR Uranium Central Processing Plant and Wellfield (currently held by enCore Energy), the Churchrock ISR Uranium project (currently held by Laramide Resources), and the Dewey-Burdock ISR Uranium project (currently held by enCore Energy).
Simon Williamson was general manager and director of Cameco Australia until late 2023 and has significant uranium industry experience, networks and skills from his 13 years at Cameco. During his tenure with Cameco, Williamson managed relations with key government ministers and departments and community stakeholders. He managed project approvals processes, including negotiations with State and Federal agencies and reviewing the PFS for the Yeelirrie project.
Williamson was intimately involved in obtaining environmental approval for the Kintyre and Yeelirrie uranium projects, including developing and implementing a program of environmental baseline studies, government and community consultation and negotiating land access. Prior to his appointment as general manager, he led the government and regulatory affairs, environmental and radiation safety activities of Cameco in Australia.
James Baughman is a highly experienced Wyoming uranium geologist and corporate executive who will help guide the company’s technical and commercial activities in the US. Baughman is the former president and CEO of High Plains Uranium (sold for US$55 million in 2006 to Uranium One) and Cyclone Uranium.
Baughman has more than 30 years of experience advancing minerals projects from grassroots to advanced stage. He has held senior positions (i.e., chief geologist, chairman, president, acting CFO, COO) in private and publicly traded mining & mineral exploration companies during his 30-year career.
He is a registered member of the Society of Mining, Metallurgy, Exploration and a member of the Society of Economic Geologists with a BSc in geology (1983 University of Wyoming) and is a registered professional geologist (P. Geo State of Wyoming). Baughman is a registered member of the Society of Mining, Metallurgy, and Exploration (SME) and a qualified person (QP) on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and Australian Stock Exchange (ASX).
Petar Tomasevic is the managing director of Vert Capital, a financial services company specializing in mineral acquisition and asset implementation. He has worked with several ASX-listed companies in marketing and investor relations roles. Tomasevic is fluent in five languages. He is currently appointed as a French and Balkans language specialist to assist in project evaluation for ASX-listed junior explorers. Most recently, he was a director at Fenix Resources (ASX:FEX), which is now moving into the production phase. He was involved in the company’s restructuring when it was known as Emergent Resources. Tomasevic was also involved in the company’s Iron Ridge asset acquisition, the RTO financing, and the development phase of Fenix’s Iron Ridge project.