Farmer sentiment rises again in August as future expectations improve

For the first time since June 2025, respondents in the August Purdue UniversityCME Group Ag Economy Barometer survey expect their operation to be better off financially rather than worse off a year from now. The improved outlook raised farmer sentiment from 126 in July to 135 in August. While the Index of Future Expectations increased 11 points, the Index of Current Conditions rose only 1 point. Optimism about export prospects over the next five years also improved this month, reaching 140 — the highest since December 2025. Higher input costs remained the biggest concern this month. The survey was conducted among 402 farmers across the nation from Aug. 10-14.

The Farm Financial Performance Index rose from 90 at the beginning of the year to 103 in August, indicating increased optimism among respondents about their financial outlook for the next 12 months. Despite this increase, the Farm Capital Investment Index declined by 5 points to 45.

This month's survey featured three questions on operator skills. The first asked respondents to identify the skill with the most return on investment for their farm, with production skills the most valued at 29%, followed by financial management and analysis at 23%, and strategic planning at 22%. The second question asked which skill their farm most needed to improve, with strategic planning at 28%, selling products at 20% and buying inputs at 19%. The third question asked which skills could be improved most through artificial intelligence, with strategic planning at 32%, financial management and analysis at 28%, and production at 18%.

In August, the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index rose by 8 points to 127. The survey identified alternative investments, interest rates and inflation as the top three influences on farmland values. Periodically, the survey asks respondents to evaluate farmland as an investment. For this month, 65% viewed farmland as a good investment, 17% as medium and 18% as poor.

"Producers are looking beyond the day-to-day management of their operations and thinking more strategically about the skills they need to succeed," said Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture. "The emphasis on strategic planning, both as an area for improvement and as a potential application for artificial intelligence, suggests producers see opportunities to use new tools to strengthen decision-making."

Since July 2025, producers have been asked whether they believe the U.S. is moving in the "right direction" or on the "wrong track." The average "right direction" response was 71% in the final six months of 2025 and 62% in the first quarter of 2026. Since April, the percentage of producers who feel the U.S. is heading in the right direction has fluctuated between 51% and 57%. In August, 51% of respondents said the U.S. was moving in the right direction.

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture

The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today's business environment.

About CME Group

As the world's leading derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com) enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data – empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, cryptocurrencies, energy, agricultural products and metals. The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world's leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing.

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About Purdue University

Purdue University is a research institution ranked among the top 10 public universities in the United States. More than 106,000 students study at Purdue across multiple campuses, including more than 57,000 at our main campus locations in West Lafayette and Indianapolis. As a land-grant university committed to affordability and accessibility, Purdue's main campus has frozen tuition 14 years in a row, enabling more students than ever to graduate debt-free.

Source: Michael Langemeier, mlangeme@purdue.edu, 765-494-9557

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SOURCE CME Group