Farmer sentiment declines in April amid input costs and availability concerns

Farmer sentiment fell in April as concerns about rising input costs, tighter availability and global instability continued to weigh on the agricultural outlook. The April Purdue UniversityCME Group Ag Economy Barometer dropped to 121, down from 127 in March. The decline was also driven by a decrease in confidence about current conditions, which dropped by 11 points, while producers' expectations for the future fell 4 points from the March survey and were 28 points below last year's April index. The survey was conducted among 400 farmers across the nation from April 13-17. 

Only 15% of producers indicated that financial conditions improved in April compared to the same period last year. When looking at the year ahead, 28% of respondents cited expectations of worse financial performance, compared with 25% expecting better financial performance. The Farm Capital Investment Index also fell by 9 points to 44, its lowest level since October 2024, indicating a decline in willingness to make large investments.

April's survey also examined the impact of current events on farm income and corn break-even prices in 2026. Approximately two-thirds of respondents expect to reduce their farm's net income in 2026. Among producers who planted corn in 2025, about half expect corn break-even prices to increase by up to 6% in 2026, 14% expect increases of 6% to 9%, and 37% anticipate increases of 10% or more.

"Producers are still under pressure from high input costs, and this month we observed a slight rise in concerns about fertilizer availability," said Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture. "Simultaneously, the impact of current events on fertilizer and energy markets increases global uncertainty, adding to the existing difficulties farmers face as they plan for the future."

The monthly survey occasionally asks about a farm's competitive standing and its capacity to manage strategic risks. This month's survey included a question on farm competitiveness and cost structure. Approximately 58% of respondents agreed that their operations have lower per-unit fixed costs than their most efficient peers, including 9% who strongly agreed.

Farmland value expectations weakened in April, with the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index declining from 125 to 121 and the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index declining from 159 to 155. Producers identified alternative investments, interest rates and inflation as the primary factors influencing farmland values.

Optimism about the direction of the U.S. economy also declined, with 57% of producers indicating the country is headed in the "right direction," down from 65% in March.

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture

The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today's business environment.

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About Purdue University

Purdue University is a public research university leading with excellence at scale. Ranked among top 10 public universities in the United States, Purdue discovers, disseminates and deploys knowledge with a quality and at a scale second to none. More than 106,000 students study at Purdue across multiple campuses, locations and modalities, including more than 57,000 at our main campus locations in West Lafayette and Indianapolis. Committed to affordability and accessibility, Purdue's main campus has frozen tuition 14 years in a row. See how Purdue never stops in the persistent pursuit of the next giant leap — including its integrated, comprehensive Indianapolis urban expansion; the Mitch Daniels School of Business; Purdue Computes; and the One Health initiative — at https://www.purdue.edu/president/strategic-initiatives.

Source: Michael Langemeier, mlangeme@purdue.edu, 765-494-9557

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SOURCE CME Group