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Antilles Gold Limited
Investor Insight
Antilles Gold’s gold and copper projects in Cuba are underpinned by a strong partnership with a Cuban Government-owned mining company that effectively fast-tracks and de-risks its promising projects, offering a strategic value proposition for investors.
Overview
Antilles Gold (ASX:AAU,OTCQB:ANTMF) is an Australian mining company focused on gold and copper projects in Cuba through a joint venture with the Cuban Government’s mining company, GeoMinera. This partnership has resulted in rapid project permitting and access to several new development opportunities for the Australian company.
Antilles Gold offers strong growth potential through two near‐term development projects, Nueva Sabana and La Demajagua, and two exploration projects, the El Pilar porphyry system and Sierra Maestra copper concessions.
Joint venture projects in Cuba
Nueva Sabana is a near‐term, gold‐copper mine development within the joint venture with GeoMinera, and is expected to initially produce around 70 grams per tonne (g/t) gold in a concentrate from a high‐grade gold cap followed by ~27 percent copper concentrate with gold credits. The project development strategy includes the completion of a feasibility study in September 2024, and the commencement of construction soon after.
The second proposed development is the La Demajagua open-pit mine, which is likely to produce ~50,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of gold arsenopyrite concentrate (32 g/t gold, 27 percent arsenic), and ~10,000 tpa of gold antimony concentrate (28.8 g/t gold, 48 percent antimony, 1,200 g/t silver) for nine years. According to the plans, construction will commence in late 2025, with commissioning in mid‐2027. La Demajagua will also include the construction of a concentrate processing facility to treat La Demajagua’s gold arsenopyrite concentrate, with the capacity to produce 50,000 oz gold per year in dore, which will further increase JV profit and cashflow.
The joint venture’s two exploration projects comprise the 720‐hectare El Pilar Concession in Central Cuba covering a cluster of three copper‐gold porphyry deposits (El Pilar, Gaspar and San Nicholas), the adjacent 17,000 hectare San Nicholas concession with porphyry style mineralisation, and two concessions totaling 52,600 hectares within the producing Sierra Maestra copper belt in southeast Cuba (La Cristina and Vega Grande), with both indicating of porphyry deposits highly prospective for copper, gold and molybdenum.
Surface mineralisation at El Pilar
Antilles Gold has completed a technical evaluation of the El Pilar porphyry system which was advised to ASX on 15 February 2024.
The joint venture intends to invest part of the surplus cash flow from the Nueva Sabana mine to fund the exploration of major copper targets, including the El Pilar copper‐gold porphyry system, and those in the Sierra Maestra copper belt.
Company Highlights
- Antilles Gold Limited is an Australian mining company listed on the ASX (AAU) and OTCQB (ANTMF).
- The company is focused on gold and copper projects in Cuba through a 50:50 joint venture with the Cuban Government’s mining company, GeoMinera, opening new development opportunities for Antilles and de-risking permitting processes.
- The joint venture is engaged in four development projects: 1) Nueva Sabana gold‐copper mine; 2) La Demajagua gold mine; 3) El Pilar porphyry copper project; and 4) Exploration of two concessions within the Sierra Maestra copper belt. Of these, Nueva Sabana and La Demajagua offer near‐term development opportunities.
- Nueva Sabana is a near‐term gold‐copper mine development that is expected to generate strong cash flow from concentrate sales from end‐2025.
- La Demajagua is an open-pit mine gold project commencing construction in Q4 2025 with commissioning in mid‐2027.
- El Pilar and Sierra Maestra concessions are exploration projects.
- Investment in Cuba offers several benefits, including richness in minerals, low operating costs and royalties, stable government and regulations, several investment incentives and the availability of a skilled workforce.
Key Projects
Nueva Sabana Project
Prominer Mining Technology will supply Nueva Sabana concentrator
Nueva Sabana is the company’s near‐term, gold‐copper mine development project. The project is held in the 50:50 joint venture with GeoMinera. It will be an open-pit mine developed on the oxide zone overlaying the El Pilar porphyry copper deposit in central Cuba.
Results from 24,000 metres of historical drilling, 1,800 metres drilled in 2022, and the 10,000 metres drilled in 2023 have established a mineral resource estimate (MRE). Results of a scoping study were advised to ASX on 7 May 2024, and a feasibility study is in progress for the proposed development which will be followed by a 12‐month construction phase.
Drilling has shown outstanding grades for gold and copper, and increasing lateral and vertical boundaries of the copper domain.
The proposed mining rate for the project will be 500,000 tpa of ore with a low waste‐to‐ore ratio. The anticipated initial production of 70 g/t gold concentrate will be followed by a ~27 percent copper concentrate with gold credits.
The estimated project cost is approximately US$33 million, of which approximately US$6 million is shareholders equity with the balance of $27 million expected to be funded through an advance on purchases of the concentrates by an international commodities trader.
Chinese engineering group, Prominer Mining Technology, which has extensive experience in designing and constructing gold and copper concentrators, is expected to supply the crushing and flotation circuits for the Nueva Sabana mine.
La Demajagua Project
La Demajagua involves the development of a gold‐antimony‐silver deposit as an open-pit mine by the joint venture company, Minera La Victoria.The project is located within a 900 hectare mining concession on the Isle of Youth, 60 nautical miles from mainland Cuba. The project site is 35 kilometres from the port city of Nueva Gerona and enjoys excellent infrastructure in terms of accessibility by highway, and availability of water, electricity and fiber optic cable.The project has an MRE of 905,000 oz gold equivalent for the open-pit operation. The MRE was calculated from 29,000 metres of drilling undertaken by the JV, and selective results from about 50,000 metres of historic drilling and revised after the receipt of additional antimony assays. The project expects mining of about 815,000 tpa of ore to produce two concentrates: 50,000 tpa of gold‐arsenopyrite and 10,000 tpa of gold‐antimony‐silver for nine years.
The project will also include a concentrate processing facility to produce gold doré from the gold-arsenopyrite concentrate. The facility will comprise a 50,000‐tpa two‐stage fluidized‐bed roaster, a carbon-in-leach (CIL) circuit, and an antimony recovery circuit. The overall production target is 75,000 oz gold equivalent per year. Chinese engineering firm BGRIMM Technology Group, which has extensive experience in designing and constructing roasters, is expected to supply the process plant on a turnkey basis.
The total development cost is estimated at US$165 million, expected to be funded by US$75 million of equity, which includes contributions by a third shareholder in the project, and the balance of US$90 million in debt. The life‐of‐mine cash surplus is estimated at ~US$600 million, with an NPV of ~US$330 million based on US$1,800/oz gold, and US$13,000/t antimony.
A revised scoping study including the concentrate processing facility is expected in December 2024, and construction is anticipated to commence in late 2025, with commissioning targeted for mid‐2027.
El Pilar Copper‐Gold Porphyry System Project
El Pilar is an exploration project of a cluster of three copper‐gold porphyry deposits: El Pilar, Gaspar and Camilo. The project comprises a 752 hectare exploration license and an adjacent 17,000 hectare reconnaissance permit covering the San Nicholas copper targets.
The project site benefits from established infrastructure with close access to a major highway, high‐tension power, and a 60 kilometre rail link to Palo Alto port.
Previous mapping, soil sampling, ground magnetics, an aeromagnetic survey and 24,000 metres of shallow drilling confirmed the existence of copper‐gold mineralization and identified the exposures as a potentially large, leached porphyry system. The surface exposures at El Pilar are leached phyllic caps to a cluster of copper‐gold porphyry cores. The extent of surficial hydrothermal alteration indicates the porphyry intrusions have large dimensions, and potential depths greater than 1,000 metres.
Ground magnetics and induced polarization surveys in early 2023 have confirmed a cluster of three potentially large porphyry intrusives – El Pilar, Gaspar and Camilo. A 10‐hole initial program has demonstrated positive results with good copper intercepts in porphyry‐style veining and has indicated the proximity of drilling to the core of El Pilar porphyry intrusive. In particular, drill hole PDH‐004A assayed 1.23 percent copper over its length of 134 metres from 49 metres.
Sierra Maestra Copper Belt Project
The project is an exploration project covering two highly prospective concessions for copper, gold and molybdenum in the Sierra Maestra copper belt in southeast Cuba. It includes a 3,600-hectare geological investigation license in La Cristina, and the adjoining 49,000‐hectare Vega Grande reconnaissance license.
The copper belt spans more than 200 kilometres of Cretaceous‐age geology intruded by Eocene stocks, which are the source of widespread gold and base‐metals mineralization. The project is near the El Cobre mine which is the oldest operating copper mine in the Americas. The concessions incorporate a series of copper‐gold‐molybdenum zones that display significant footprints of hydrothermal alteration normally associated with potentially large porphyry systems.
An extensive, two‐year prospecting program will be carried out on the two concessions, commencing in Q4 2024, to identify drill targets.
Management Team
Brian Johnson – Executive Chairman
Brian Johnson is a graduate of civil engineering from the University of Western Australia and a member of the Institute of Engineers, Australia. He has rich experience in the construction and mining industries in Australia, Southeast Asia and North America. He was instrumental in establishing successful companies in the iron ore and coal sectors. Previously, he has served as a director of two listed gold producers, and of companies with stock exchange listings in London, New York, Vancouver and Australia.
James Tyers – Chief Executive Officer
James Tyers is a member of the AusIMM and has more than 30 years of experience in the mining industry, holding senior management roles in gold and iron ore operations. He has been associated with the Palm Springs Gold Mine in the Kimberley region of Western Australia, and the Cornishman Project, a JV between Troy Resources and Sons of Gwalia. He has experience developing and operating iron ore projects in the mid‐west of Western Australia. He was responsible for developing the Las Lagunas Project and is the project director for the La Demajagua gold mine in Cuba.
Ugo Carlo – Non‐executive Director
Ugo Carlo has more than 30 years of experience in the Australian mining industry. Throughout his career, he has served in several senior leadership roles at Rocklands Richfield, Austral Coal and Conzinc Rio Tinto Australia Group. He is also a former director of the Port Kembla Coal Terminal, the New South Wales Joint Coal Board, and interim chairman of the New South Wales Minerals Council.
Angela Pankhurst – Non‐executive Director
Angela Pankhurst has more than 20 years of experience as an executive and non‐executive director, primarily in the mining industry. She has been a senior executive for companies with projects in Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Vietnam, South Africa and Australia. She has held senior leadership positions at Antilles Gold and Central Asia Resources. She is currently a director of Consolidated Zinc and a director of Imritec.
Tracey Aitkin – Chief Financial Officer
Tracey Aitkin is a professional member of CPA Australia and has more than 30 years of rich experience in finance, administration and staff management across a range of industries, including mining, manufacturing, retail, transport and agriculture. She joined the company in 2009 and was named CFO in 2010.
Dr. Jinxing Ji – Technical Director
Dr. Jinxing Ji is a seasoned metallurgist with six years of research experience in universities and 26 years of practical experience in the mining industry related to gold, silver, copper, zinc and lead. His broad experience includes due diligence, metallurgical test work, pre‐feasibility study, feasibility study, detailed design, plant commissioning support, and operational support for projects in Turkey, Greece, Canada, China, Romania, Brazil and Papua New Guinea.
Steve Mertens – Mining Director
Steve Mertens is a mining engineer with more than 20 years of industry experience across a range of commodities, including nine years based in Latin America. He has been associated with the Goro Nickel Project in New Caledonia and the Mina de Cobre Project in Panama. Prior to his current role as general manager for the Minera La Victoria JV company, he was the mining manager for Antilles Gold’s Las Lagunas operation in the Dominican Republic.
Chris Grainger – Exploration Director
Chris Grainger holds a PhD in economic geology from the University of Western Australia. He is an Australian geologist with more than 25 years of international experience with involvement in grassroots and brownfield exploration, as well as resource definition and development, with a focus on precious and base metals in South and Central America and the Caribbean. He has been associated with Continental Gold’s Buritica gold‐silver project, and Cordoba Minerals’ Alacran copper‐gold project.
Trump vs. Harris: How Could the US Election Affect the Gold Price?
During their terms, both the Trump/Pence and the Biden/Harris administrations have increased domestic oil production and increased tariffs on goods from overseas.
In the only debate planned between Harris and Trump, which took place on September 10, 2024, Harris focused on her platform’s key economic policies, including increased support for first-time home buyers, families and small businesses. She was also committed to investing in diverse forms of energy, including renewables and oil and gas, to reduce dependence on foreign oil.
Meanwhile, Trump maintained a focus on the key issues of his base including policing and immigration, but also discussed his economic plan that would see him increase tariffs on goods from China.
When it came to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Harris pledged her support for both Ukraine and other US allies in Europe. While Trump did not say he supported Ukraine, he said he was also committed to ending the war, and planned to push Ukrainian funding to European partners while attempting to bring Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the negotiating table.
The gold price has climbed significantly under both administrations. It's been holding at historic levels above the US$2,600 mark, reaching an all-time high of US$2,672.51 on September 18, more than double its price when Trump took office in 2017.
Some of the recent rise in gold prices is attributed to a 50-point cut to interest rates following the Federal Open Markets Committee meeting on September 17 and 18. It is the last time the committee will come together before the November 5 election, as the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for November 6 and 7.
How does gold typically perform post-election, and how has it moved during Trump and Biden's presidencies? While the past doesn't necessarily dictate the future, reviewing gold price trends can help investors plan their election strategy.
In this article:
How do US elections affect the gold price?
Looking at past US elections can provide insight on how the gold price may move in the days and weeks following November 5. However, on a broad scale, changes post-election tend to normalize fairly quickly.
In an email to the Investing News Network, Lobo Tiggre, CEO of IndependentSpeculator.com, said he doesn’t see either candidate having a large effect on the price of gold post-election. “The outcome of the election will have ideological consequences, but it’ll make no difference to gold, silver, uranium or the commodities super-cycle,” he said.
In 2016, when Trump ran against Hillary Clinton, the gold price climbed by about US$50 in the weeks leading up to the November 8 election, peaking at just above US$1,300 per ounce on November 4. Following Trump's win gold fell substantially, moving as low as US$1,128 in mid-December. Following that low point, the gold price began to rebound, and by the middle of January 2017 was once again above the US$1,200 level.
Gold price, November 1, 2016, to January 30, 2017.
Chart via Trading Economics.
The 2020 election was on November 3, and in the week leading up to the vote gold was trading at around US$1,900, although it fell as low as US$1,867 on October 30. After the election, the gold price performed positively, spiking from US$1,908 on the day of the vote to US$1,951 on November 6.
However, gold fell back down over the following weeks, and dipped briefly below US$1,800 as vote recounts in Georgia and several districts and legal challenges by Trump’s team dragged on.
Gold price, November 1, 2020, to January 30, 2021.
Chart via Trading Economics.
Gold began to climb again in December ahead of January 6, 2021, when the electoral college met to formalize Biden’s victory. That day, the attack on the US Capitol building, which aimed to stop this process, caused the gold price to plunge from US$1,949 on January 5 to US$1,848 by January 8. The events of January 6 were the start of a decline in the gold price that continued until March 8, when gold bottomed out at US$1,674.80.
Gold's behavior at this time went against the usual trend whereby it performs well amid crisis and turmoil; the decline may been a reaction to the successful affirmation of Biden. Stock markets also reacted opposite to expectations, seeing strong gains on January 6 and 7 as investors and Wall Street believed an economic recovery was in sight.
How did the gold price perform when Trump was president?
The gold price rose substantially during Trump's presidency, increasing from US$1,209 when he assumed office on January 20, 2017, to US$1,839 on his final day, which was January 19, 2021.
While these gains can't be directly attributed to Trump, his actions helped shape the geopolitical landscape both in the US and abroad. During his tenure, trade wars with both allies and competitors were in focus.
China was a key target for Trump. While tariffs on Chinese goods were already in place, his administration applied new restrictions to more items, including steel, electric vehicle batteries and consumer goods. Also under Trump's watch, relations with India fractured and the country lost its preferential trade status with the US. He also withdrew from the Iran nuclear treaty and imposed punishments on anyone who traded with Iran.
These and other “America First” protectionist policies and sanctions implemented by the Trump administration tarnished the image of the US as a reliable trade partner, helping to push the BRICS nations — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — away from the US dollar as a global reserve currency.
The BRICS have since expanded to include Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and other emerging nations, and have increasingly turned toward gold. China and India in particular have increased purchases of gold through their central banks, leading some to speculate that they are attempting to create a new currency that is at least partially backed by gold.
One other factor that drove the gold price during Trump’s term was the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and government policies put in place to support citizens and the economy. For example, the former president oversaw multiple stimulus efforts, including packages announced in March 2020 and December 2020. These actions led many to turn to gold as a safe haven out of concern for a weakening US dollar.
A second Trump term would likely bring more of the same protectionist policies. Indeed, his 2024 campaign has similarities to his 2016 and 2020 campaigns. He has reused his “America First'' rhetoric and promised a fresh round of tariffs if elected. Singling out China, Trump has said he would look to implement a 60 percent tariff on all goods imported into the US, a move that would likely increase tensions and the likelihood of a widening division between the countries.
How has the gold price performed with Biden and Harris in office?
Gold has also seen sizable gains during Biden's presidency. The price of gold was US$1,871 when he took over from Trump on January 20, 2021. And while Biden's term as president is not over until January 2025, as of October 15, the gold price was trading at about US$2,665. It reached a new record on September 25 of US$2,672.51.
Again, it's hard to say how many of the Biden administration's policies directly influenced these gains. Geopolitical conflict and black swan events outside of his control all affected the gold market during this time.
For example, Biden and Harris entered office one year after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Inflation was ballooning, which typically leads to higher gold prices. The US Federal Reserve has worked to counteract inflation and strengthen the US dollar by raising interest rates beginning in 2022, a move that tempered the gold price for a time. The anticipation of rate cuts and the 50 point cut that came in September were factors in driving gold to its record highs in recent months.
Biden came into office on a promise of restoring the US' place in the global community, and while his administration did close rifts among important trading partners like Canada and the EU, tensions with China remain. This rift is a holdover from the Trump administration's more isolationist policies, but has also been representative of a more competitive global trade landscape as the BRICS nations seek to move away from the US dollar and America’s influence on world economics.
Biden has attempted to at least partially mend the US' relationship with China, including by meeting with President Xi Jinping in the summer of 2023. However, a key sticking point in negotiations between the two has been Biden’s continued stance that the US would support Taiwan if China were to invade it; at the same time, he has said that the US does not support Taiwan’s independence. Both of these stances are in line with the US’ longtime position on the matter, but escalating tensions between China and Taiwan have brought this to the forefront.
Harris is unlikely to shift policy when it comes to Taiwan. In a September 2022 meeting with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, she said the US was committed to opposing unilateral actions by China and would maintain the status quo in the South China Sea. The White House added that peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait was essential to a free Indo-Pacific region.
Harris discussed trade routes in the region again when she attended the ASEAN summit in Jakarta, Indonesia, in September of 2023. She told CBS’s Margaret Brennan that it's not about pulling out of Southeast Asia, but about de-risking the region and ensuring that American interests were protected.
On an economic level, the Biden administration has distanced itself from China with policies such as the Inflation Reduction Act and Chips Act, which support the development of western supply chains for a variety of industries, including clean energy, electric vehicles and semiconductor chips, in part by introducing subsidies for companies that don’t rely on China for their supply chain.
Meanwhile, China has accelerated its de-dollarization efforts, dumping roughly US$50 billion worth of US Treasuries and agency bonds during the first quarter of this year.
Additionally, Biden’s role in implementing a strict set of sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 deepened a divide between the US and Russia, as well as the other BRICS nations.
Among other sanctions, the US limited Russia's access to SWIFT, a communications network that helps facilitate the global movement of funds. The US Department of the Treasury also implemented controls that effectively cut off Russia’s central bank and key funds and personnel from accessing the US financial system. Some analysts believe the move may work to undermine the US dollar as the global reserve currency in the long term, as it sent a signal to the rest of the world that the US is willing to effectively weaponize the US dollar.
What will happen to gold after the election?
Though this year's presidential election may have a limited effect on the price of gold, a rate decision by the Fed could impact the metal's price in the days that follow the election. Decisions made by the US central bank, which is not controlled by the president, have a strong impact on the US dollar and thus often impact the gold price as well.
The Federal Open Market Committee, which is the board that ultimately decides whether to increase or decrease interest rates, is set to meet from November 6 to 7, just one day after the November 5 election.
Gold tends to rise when rates are lower and fall when they are high, but this year gold has reached all-time highs in the face of elevated rates. While strong expectations for cuts at the beginning of 2024 didn’t pan out, gold prices grew in the lead up to the September meeting of the committee, when the first cut finally came.
So what will happen to gold after the election? A post-election interest rate cut could boost gold, but it's not yet clear how the November meeting will play out.
Investor takeaway
Historically speaking, returns for gold under Democrat and Republican presidents have averaged 11.2 percent and 10.2 percent, respectively. But that might not be the data point investors should focus on.
Which party controls Congress, which is comprised of the House and Senate, has had a far stronger influence on the gold price. Under Democrat-controlled Congresses, gold has averaged a 20.9 percent gain, compared to just 3.9 percent when Congress is controlled by Republicans. In cases where neither controls Congress, gold has averaged 3.5 percent.
With that in mind, investors should consider the effects of policies enacted not only by the executive branch of the US government, but also by Congress and the Senate. Those hoping to use the immediate aftermath of the election outcome to their advantage should also proceed with caution — when it comes to gold, past elections haven't provided great investment opportunities, with losses and gains typically being short-lived.
This is an updated version of an article first published by the Investing News Network in 2020.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
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