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Navigating Uncertainty: How Trump's Tariffs Are Affecting the Gold Market
Read on to learn how tariffs have affected the gold market and price so far.
How have tariffs affected the gold price?
The gold price has been on the rise since the beginning of the year. After briefly touching the US$3,500 per ounce level in May, it has pulled back and was trading just under US$3,400 as of Tuesday (August 26).
Gold price, January 1 to August 26, 2025.
Chart via TradingEconomics.
Although some of its increase is attributable to the points mentioned above, a significant portion is owed to a lack of information surrounding US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.
Initially there was no clarity on what or who was being tariffed, or when the levies would ultimately be implemented, and investors started to move into gold for greater stability and portfolio diversification.
Uncertainty about whether gold would be tariffed also had an effect, prompting traders in the US to import physical gold; this created a price differential between New York futures and the London spot price.
Concerns dissipated as the Trump administration began to nail down tariffs, but were reignited once again when US Customs and Border Patrol posted a ruling on July 31 indicating that the 39 percent tariffs against imports from Switzerland would include 1 kilogram and 100 ounce gold bars.
The news caused spot gold to spike more than 3 percent, from US$3,290 to US$3,398, and sent December futures to an all-time high of US$3,549. Meanwhile, traders halted imports of Swiss bars.
After several days of turmoil, Trump said the ruling was incorrect, and the bars would not be included in the tariff measures being applied to other Swiss imports; the gold price then retreated.
How would gold tariffs have impacted the market?
Gold functions as both a commodity and an essential part of the world’s financial system.
One kilogram and 100 ounce gold bars are used to back futures trading, and regular shipments of the metal are needed to settle contracts once they come due. A 39 percent tariff on gold from Switzerland would have been particularly disruptive, as Swiss refineries account for approximately 70 percent of the world’s gold.
According to the UN Comtrade database, in 2024, Switzerland exported more than 1,400 metric tons of unwrought gold worth more than US$106 billion, representing nearly 30 percent of the country’s total exports. Tariffs would have forced US buyers to pay a significant premium for the precious metal versus buyers in London or Shanghai.
Because gold is often used as a store of value in times of uncertainty, any kind of disruption could have had broader implications for investors looking to add stability to their portfolios.
In an email to the Investing News Network (INN), Lauren Saidel-Baker, CFA, an economist with ITR Economics, explained that gold stands out as a unique investment mechanism:
“There are psychological nuances to gold, which is commonly viewed as a safe store of value during uncertain times and an inflation hedge. Overall, the tariff would have added another facet to the already elevated policy uncertainty."
If the tariffs had remained in place, the US gold price would have had to rise to around US$4,700 per ounce to cover levies, while international prices would have remained closer to the US$3,500 mark.
“Tariffs have already complicated supply chains across industries, and this gold tariff would have been another example of added cost and complexity — but in this case, one with the potential to more directly impact investment activities,” Saidel-Baker went on to explain, emphasizing that US investors would have felt the pinch.
Could gold tariffs happen in the future?
Given Trump's unpredictability, especially when it comes to tariffs, it's possible that gold levies could enter the conversation again. However, by and large experts agree that the matter is closed.
“I think it’s pretty clear at this point that there’s no intention to put tariffs on physical gold imports, and I think that would be very damaging and destructive if they did,” Stefan Gleason, CEO of Money Metals, told INN.
Keith Weiner, founder and CEO of Monetary Metals, offered another perspective, saying that although the gold tariff threat is over, the tumult could have long-term effects on the market.
"Once you've put the scare into everybody, you can't just say, 'Oh, sorry, just kidding.' You can't really do that. And so now we've done damage, and we'll see what happens to that spread over time. We'll see how users of the futures market adapt. There are other markets in the world that would be competing for," he explained.
"This hedging business, you know, maybe it moves to Singapore, maybe it moves to Dubai, maybe it moves to London, and the US loses not only a little more trust, but also a little bit of volume on what had been the biggest — or what is currently the biggest — futures market," Weiner added to INN.
Market participants will be watching closely for future impacts on the yellow metal.
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
What Was the Highest Price for Gold?
Gold market gurus from Lynette Zang to Chris Blasi to Jordan Roy-Byrne have shared eye-popping predictions on the gold price that would intrigue any investor — gold bug or not.
Some have posited that the gold price may rise as high as US$4,000 or US$5,000 per ounce, and there are those who believe that US$10,000 gold or even US$40,000 gold could become a reality.
These impressive price predictions have investors wondering, what is gold's all-time high (ATH)?
In the past year, gold has reached a new all-time high dozens of times. Find out what has driven it to these levels, plus how the gold price has moved historically and what has driven its performance in recent years.
In this article
How is gold traded?
Before discovering what the highest gold price ever was, it’s worth looking at how the precious metal is traded. Knowing the mechanics behind gold's historical moves can help illuminate why and how its price changes.
Gold bullion is traded in dollars and cents per ounce, with activity taking place worldwide at all hours, resulting in a live price for the metal. Investors trade gold in major commodities markets such as New York, London, Tokyo and Hong Kong. London is seen as the center of physical precious metals trading, including for silver. The COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange is home to most paper trading.
There are many popular ways to invest in gold. The first is through purchasing gold bullion products such as bullion bars, bullion coins and rounds. Physical gold is sold on the spot market, meaning that buyers pay a specific price per ounce for the metal and then have it delivered. In some parts of the world, such as India, buying gold in the form of jewelry is the largest and most traditional route to investing in gold.
Another path to gold investment is paper trading, which is done through the gold futures market. Participants enter into gold futures contracts for the delivery of gold in the future at an agreed-upon price.
In such contracts, two positions can be taken: a long position under which delivery of the metal is accepted or a short position to provide delivery of the metal. Paper trading as a means to invest in gold can provide investors with the flexibility to liquidate assets that aren’t available to those who possess physical gold bullion.
One significant long-term advantage of trading in the paper market is that investors can benefit from gold’s safe-haven status without needing to store it. Furthermore, gold futures trading can offer more financial leverage in that it requires less capital than trading in the physical market.
Interestingly, investors can also purchase physical gold via the futures market, but the process is complicated and lengthy and comes with a large investment and additional costs.
Aside from those options, market participants can invest in gold through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Investing in a gold ETF is similar to trading a gold stock on an exchange, and there are numerous gold ETF options to choose from. For instance, some ETFs focus solely on physical gold bullion, while others focus on gold futures contracts. Other gold ETFs center on gold-mining stocks or follow the gold spot price.
It is important to understand that you will not own any physical gold when investing in an ETF — in general, even a gold ETF that tracks physical gold cannot be redeemed for tangible metal.
With regards to the performance of gold versus trading stocks, gold has an interesting relationship with the stock market. The two often move in sync during “risk-on periods” when investors are bullish. On the flip side, they tend to become inversely correlated in times of volatility. There are a variety of options for investing in stocks, including gold mining stocks on the TSX and ASX, gold juniors, precious metals royalty companies and gold stocks that pay dividends.
According to the World Gold Council, gold's ability to decouple from the stock market during periods of stress makes it “unique amongst most hedges in the marketplace.” It is often during these times that gold outperforms the stock market. For that reason, it is often used as a portfolio diversifier to hedge against uncertainty.
What was the highest gold price ever?
The gold price peaked at US$3,500.05, its all-time high, during trading on April 22, 2025.
Gold price chart, January 1, 2025, to August 11, 2025.
Chart via the Investing News Network.
What drove it to set this new ATH? Gold reached its highest price amid concern that Trump would remove Jerome Powell as chair of the US Federal Reserve. Falling markets and a declining US dollar continued to support gold, as did increased gold purchasing in China in response to US tariffs on the country. Gold pulled back below US$3,400 later in the day as Trump stated he didn't plan to fire Powell and that he may lower tariffs on China.
The gold price set a string of new highs in the month of April amid high market volatility as markets reacted to tariff decisions from Trump and the escalating trade war between the US and China. By April 11, Trump had raised US tariffs on Chinese imports to 145 percent and China has raised its tariffs on US products to 125 percent.
On April 9, Trump paused his higher "Liberation Day" tariffs on any countries that did not reciprocate in response. However, the blanket 10 percent tariffs still stand, as do the 25 percent tariffs on the automotive sector.
Why is the gold price setting new highs in 2025?
This string of record-breaking highs this year are caused by several factors.
Increased economic and geopolitical turmoil caused by the new Trump administration has been a tailwind for gold this year, as well as a weakening US dollar, sticky inflation in the country and increased safe haven gold demand.
Since coming into office in late January, Trump has threatened or enacted tariffs on many countries, including currently paused blanket tariffs on longtime US allies Canada and Mexico and tariffs on the European Union. Trump has also implemented 25 percent tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports.
As for the effect of these widespread tariffs raising prices for the American populace, Trump has reiterated his sentiment that the US may need to go through a period of economic pain to enter a new "golden age" of economic prosperity. Elon Musk's call to audit the gold holdings in Fort Knox has also brought attention to the yellow metal.
What factors have driven the gold price in the last five years?
Despite these recent runs, gold has seen its share of both peaks and troughs over the last decade. After remaining rangebound between US$1,100 and US$1,300 from 2014 to early 2019, gold pushed above US$1,500 in the second half of 2019 on a softer US dollar, rising geopolitical issues and a slowdown in economic growth.
Gold’s first breach of the significant US$2,000 price level in mid-2020 was due in large part to economic uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. To break through that barrier and reach what was then a record high, the yellow metal added more than US$500, or 32 percent, to its value in the first eight months of 2020.
Gold price chart, August 10, 2020, to August 11, 2025.
Chart via the Investing News Network.
The gold price surpassed that level again in early 2022 as Russia's invasion of Ukraine collided with rising inflation around the world, increasing the allure of safe-haven assets and pulling the yellow metal up to a price of US$2,074.60 on March 8, 2022. However, it fell throughout the rest of 2022, dropping below US$1,650 in October.
Although it didn't quite reach the level of volatility as the previous year, the gold price experienced drastic price changes in 2023 on the back of banking instability, high interest rates and the breakout of war in the Middle East.
After central bank buying pushed the gold price up to the US$1,950.17 mark by the end of January, the US Federal Reserve’s 0.25 percent rate hike on February 1 sparked a retreat as the dollar and Treasury yields saw gains. The precious metal went on to fall to its lowest price level of the year at US$1,809.87 on February 23.
The banking crisis that hit the US in early March caused a domino effect through the global financial system and led to the mid-March collapse of Credit Suisse, Switzerland’s second-largest bank. The gold price jumped to US$1,989.13 by March 15. The continued fallout in the global banking system throughout the second quarter of the year allowed gold to break above US$2,000 on April 3, and go on to flirt with a near-record high of US$2,049.92 on May 3.
Those gains were tempered by the Fed’s ongoing rate hikes and improvements in the banking sector, resulting in a downward trend in the gold price throughout the remainder of the second quarter and throughout Q3. By October 4, gold had fallen to a low of US$1,820.01 and analysts expected the precious metal to drop below US$1,800.
That was before the October 7 attacks by Hamas on Israel ignited legitimate fears of a much larger conflict erupting in the Middle East. Reacting to those fears, and to rising expectations that the Fed would begin to reverse course on interest rates, gold broke through the important psychological level of US$2,000 and closed at US$2,007.08 on October 27. As the fighting intensified, gold reached a then-new high of US$2,152.30 in intraday trading on December 3.
That robust momentum in the spot gold price continued into 2024, chasing new highs on fears of a looming US recession, the promise of Fed rate cuts on the horizon, the worsening conflict in the Middle East and the tumultuous US presidential election year. By mid-March, gold was pushing up against the US$2,200 level.
That record-setting momentum continued into the second quarter of 2024 when gold broke through US$2,400 in mid-April on strong central bank buying, sovereign debt concerns in China and investors expecting the Fed to start cutting interest rates. The precious metal went on to hit US$2,450.05 on May 20.
Throughout the summer, the hits kept on coming.
The global macro environment was highly bullish for gold in the lead up to the US election. Following the failed assassination attempt on Trump and a statement about coming interest rate cuts by Fed Chair Powell, the gold spot price hit a then new all-time high on July 16 at US$2,469.30. One week later, news that then-President Joe Biden would not seek re-election and would instead pass the baton to Vice President Kamala Harris eased some of the tension in the stock markets and strengthened the US dollar. This also pushed the price of gold down to US$2,387.99 on July 22, 2024.
However, the bullish factors supporting gold remained in play, and the spot price for gold went on to breach US$2,500 on August 2 that year on a less than stellar US jobs report; it closed just above the US$2,440 level. A few weeks later, gold pushed past US$2,500 once again on August 16, closing above that level for the first time ever after the US Department of Commerce released data showing a fifth consecutive monthly decrease in a row for homebuilding.
The news that the Chinese government issued new gold import quotas to banks in the country following a two month pause also helped fuel the gold price rally. Central bank gold buying has been a significant tailwind for the gold price this year, and China's central bank has been one of the strongest buyers.
Market watchers expected the Fed to cut interest rates by a quarter point at their September 2024 meeting, but news on September 12 that the regulators were still deciding between the expected cut or a larger half-point cut led gold prices on a rally that carried through into the next day, bringing gold prices near US$2,600.
At the September 18 Fed meeting, the committee ultimately made the decision to cut rates by half a point, news that sent gold even higher. By September 20, it moved above US$2,600 and held above US$2,620.
In October 2024, gold first breached the US$2,700 level and continued to higher on a variety of factors, including further rate cuts and economic data anticipation, the escalating conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Hezbollah, and economic stimulus in China — not to mention the very close race between the US presidential candidates.
While the gold price fell following Trump's win in early November and largely held under US$2,700 through the end of the year, it began trending upwards in 2025 to the new all-time high discussed earlier in the article.
What's next for the gold price?
What's next for the gold price is never an easy call to make. There are many factors to consider, but some of the most prevalent long-term drivers include economic expansion, market risk, opportunity cost and momentum.
Economic expansion is one of the primary gold price contributors as it facilitates demand growth in several categories, including jewelry, technology and investment. As the World Gold Council explains, “This is particularly true in developing economies where gold is often used as a luxury item and a means to preserve wealth.”
Market risk is also a prime catalyst for gold values as investors view the precious metal as the “ultimate safe haven,” and a hedge against currency depreciation, inflation and other systemic risks.
Going forward, in addition to the Fed, inflation and geopolitical events, experts will be looking for cues from factors like supply and demand. In terms of supply, the world’s five top gold producers are China, Australia, Russia, Canada and the US. The consensus in the gold market is that major miners have not spent enough on gold exploration in recent years. Gold mine production has fallen from around 3,200 to 3,300 metric tons (MT) each year between 2018 and 2020 to around 3,000 to 3,100 MT each year between 2021 and 2023.
On the demand side, China and India are the biggest buyers of physical gold, and are in a perpetual fight for the title of world’s largest gold consumer. That said, it's worth noting that the last few years have brought a big rebound in central bank gold buying, which dropped to a record low in 2020, but reached a 55 year high of 1,136 MT in 2022.
World Gold Council data shows 2024 central bank gold purchases came to 1,044.6 MT, marking the third year in a row above 1,000 MT. In H1 2025, the organization says gold purchases from central banks reached 415.1 MT.
“I expect the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle to be good for gold, but central bank buying has been and remains a major factor," Lobo Tiggre, CEO of IndependentSpeculator.com, told the Investing News Network (INN) at the start of Q4 2024.
David Barrett, CEO of the UK division of global brokerage firm EBC Financial Group, is also keeping an eye on central bank purchases of gold. “I still see the global central bank buying as the main driver — as it has been over the last 15 years,” he said in an email to INN. "This demand removes supply from the market. They are the ultimate buy-and-hold participants and they have been buying massive amounts."
In addition to central bank moves, analysts are also watching for escalating tensions in the Middle East, a weakening US dollar, declining bond yields, and further interest rate cuts as factors that could push gold higher as investors look to secure their portfolios. “When it comes to outside factors that affect the market, it’s just tailwind after tailwind after tailwind. So I don’t really see the trend changing,” Coffin said.
Randy Smallwood of Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX:WPM,NYSE:WPM) told INN in March 2025 that gold is seeing support from many factors, including central bank buying, nervousness around the US dollar and stronger institutional interest. Smallwood is seeing an influx of fund managers wanting to learn about precious metals.
Joe Cavatoni, senior market strategist, Americas, at the World Gold Council, believes that market risk and uncertainty surrounding tariffs and continued demand from central banks are the main drivers of gold.
"Market risk in particular is a key strategic driver for the gold price and performance," Cavatoni told INN in a July 2025 interview. "Think strategically when you think about gold, and keep that allocation in mind."
Check out more of INN's interviews to find out what experts have said about the gold price during its 2025 bull run and where it could go next.
Should you beware of gold price manipulation?
It’s important for investors to be aware that gold price manipulation is a hot topic in the industry.
In 2011, when gold hit what was then a record high, it dropped swiftly in just a few short years. This decline after three years of impressive gains led many in the gold sector to cry foul and point to manipulation.
Early in 2015, 10 banks were hit in a US probe on precious metals manipulation.
Evidence provided by Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) showed “smoking gun” proof that UBS Group (NYSE:UBS), HSBC Holdings (NYSE:HSBC), the Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX:BNS,NYSE:BNS and other firms were involved in rigging gold and silver rates in the market from 2007 to 2013. Not long after, the long-running London gold fix was replaced by the LBMA gold price in a bid to increase gold price transparency. The twice-a-day process, operated by the ICE Benchmark Administration, still involves a variety of banks collaborating to set the gold price, but the system is now electronic.
Still, manipulation has by no means been eradicated, as a 2020 fine on JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) shows. The next year, chat logs were released in a spoofing trial for two former precious metals traders from the Bank of America's (NYSE:BAC) Merrill Lynch unit. They show a trader bragging about how easy it is to manipulate the gold price.
Gold market participants have consistently spoken out about manipulation. In mid-2020, Chris Marcus, founder of Arcadia Economics and author of the book “The Big Silver Short,” said that when gold fell back below the US$2,000 mark after hitting close to US$2,070, he saw similarities to what happened with the gold price in 2011.
Marcus has been following the gold and silver markets with a focus specifically on price manipulation for nearly a decade. His advice? “Trust your gut. I believe we’re witnessing the ultimate ’emperor’s really naked’ moment. This isn’t complex financial analysis. Sometimes I think of it as the greatest hypnotic thought experiment in history.”
Investor takeaway
While we have the answer to what the highest gold price ever is as of now, it remains to be seen how high gold can climb, and if the precious metal can reach as high as US$5,000, US$10,000 or even US$40,000.
Even so, many market participants believe gold is a must have in any investment profile, and there is little doubt investors will continue to see gold price action making headlines this year and beyond.
This is an updated version of an article first published by the Investing News Network in 2020.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
