The Conversation (0)
Blackstone Minerals Limited (ASX:BSX) (“Blackstone” or the “Company”) wishes to provide an update on corporate activities, and on the Ta Khoa Project development. With completion of the Ta Khoa Refinery (“TKR”) piloting program, Blackstone has progressed critical project milestones in collaboration with prospective technology and off-take partners (the “Partners”). The development strategy will focus on the following critical activities:
1. Partnerships: continued engagement with Partners to reach a final JV structure and investment contribution.
2. Multi-product strategy: evaluation of various product and throughput staging options, including an initial nickel sulphate start up scenario, which would de-risk early project cashflows, and improve the project development schedule.
3. Community: collaboration with community stakeholders to ensure greatest community support and to aid the permitting process for land access and thus enable early works activities.
4.Permitting: dossier submitted seeking investment policy for the Ta Khoa Refinery, environmental impact assessment and social and economic baseline surveys commenced.
Further details can be found below.
Figure 1. Ta Khoa Refinery 3D Model – Phu Yen District
Partnerships
Five groups visited the Project site in 2022 as part of the partnership due diligence process. These visits were accompanied by meetings with government representatives (provincial and federal), Austrade, Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, financial institutions and other important stakeholders.
Following the announcement of Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act in the United States, the global landscape for battery materials has change dramatically. We are seeing similar new initiatives rolling out in the European Union (EU) and this puts Blackstone in a unique position due to the existing Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Vietnam and the EU. Following a trip to South Korea in January 2023 to meet with Partners, Blackstone has seen an increased level of engagement with clear interest in the European FTA, as well as the low carbon footprint associated with the Ta Khoa Project nickel products.
The consideration of a multi-product strategy was welcomed by the Partners. Having the flexibility to sell nickel and cobalt sulphate intermediate products while completing precursor cathode active material (“pCAM”) qualification processes will provide cashflow security during the critical project ramp-up phase. This strategy has also attracted several new downstream players, with short term nickel sulphate off-take a desirable contract to secure.
Blackstone looks forward to developing these relationships further in 2023 and is working with its advisors to ensure that the right partner is chosen, delivering the best outcomes for Blackstone shareholders.
Multi-product Strategy
In consultation with Partners and Wood, the lead engineering consultant for the Definitive Feasibility Study (“DFS”), Blackstone is exploring various options. While the development strategy will depend upon the final partnership structure, key considerations being assessed include:
- Production of crystal nickel and cobalt sulphate intermediate products, prior to development of the pCAM facility funded from operating cashflow,
- Staged development of the Refinery, with an initial train capacity for 200,000 tonnes of concentrate feed per year, before expanding with a second train to 400,000 tonnes per year, which would be funded from operating cashflow,
- Early development of the Ta Khoa Massive Sulphide Vein (“MSV”) projects, (King Snake and Ban Chang), and operation though the existing concentrator.
Each of these options de-risk Blackstone’s path to project cashflows and are being evaluated from a technical and economic perspective.
Blackstone is pleased to announce the integration of the Vietnamese engineering firm Narime into the DFS delivery team. Narime will assist Wood in ‘nationalising’ the Ta Khoa Refinery design as well as supporting Blackstone to complete ‘in-country’ vendor and contractor due diligence and source local construction pricing to feed into the DFS estimates. Nationalising the Ta Khoa Refinery design will assist Blackstone in expediting the permitting process as all document submissions need to comply to Vietnamese Standards.
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This article includes content from Blackstone Minerals Limited, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
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Blackstone Minerals is well-positioned to leverage a projected nickel supply deficit as it strives to become a vertically integrated producer of low-cost, low-carbon, battery-grade nickel. Key to this is Blackstone’s Ta Khoa project in Vietnam, an emerging hub for the electric vehicle market.
Overview
As the world moves closer to a sustainable net-zero future, the need for battery metals continues to mount and nickel may soon be among the metals to see a supply crunch. Though its roots are in the stainless steel sector, it's also a critical component of lithium-ion batteries.
Given that many nations are aiming to replace combustion vehicles with electric cars by 2030, the metal is already experiencing a massive spike in demand. Benchmark Minerals expects the need for battery-grade nickel will increase about 950 percent by 2040.
It's imperative to ramp up global nickel production but the resource sector, for its part, must do so with a much-reduced carbon footprint to influence the sustainability of the entire value chain. Blackstone Minerals (ASX:BSX,OTC:BLSTF,FRA:B9S) recognizes this. As a vertically integrated producer of low-cost, low-carbon nickel, the company aims to become a leading source of low CO2 emission nickel sulphide. Its flagship Ta Khoa project in Vietnam is representative of that goal.
Blackstone Minerals business structure schematic
With over 20 active mines and a burgeoning technology sector, Vietnam is on the road to becoming a hub of electric vehicle production and innovation, with low labor costs and regulated electricity pricing further driving its growth. Steadily increasing foreign direct investment in the region is indicative of this as the country seeks to attract $50 billion in new foreign investment by 2030.
Blackstone is uniquely positioned to take advantage of this, thanks to two factors. US President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act, which came into force in August 2022, represents the largest investment into climate action in United States history. A similar initiative is rolling out in the European Union (EU), which maintains a Free Trade Agreement with Vietnam — something multiple partners of the company have expressed interest in.
Blackstone's Ta Khoa Project consists of two streams, the Ta Khoa Nickel Mine and the Ta Khoa Refinery. Recent milestones point to Blackstone’s commitment to advancing this game-changing project.
These milestones include a memorandum of understanding with Cavico Laos Mining to collaborate in a number of areas associated with CLM’s nickel mine in Lao People's Democratic Republic and supply of nickel products for Blackstone’s Ta Khoa Refinery in Vietnam.
Blackstone also partnered with Arca Climate Technologies to further investigate the carbon capture potential at the Ta Khoa Project through carbon mineralisation, and explore opportunities to utilise Arca’s carbon capture technologies within the project.
In a bid to collaborate on the supply of renewable wind energy to the Ta Khoa Project, Blackstone signed a direct power purchase agreement with Limes Renewables Energy.
Blackstone received AU$2.8 million as an advance from a research & development (R&D) lending fund backed by Asymmetric Innovation Finance and Fiftyone Capital. The advanced payment reflects the significant investment by Blackstone to develop the Ta Khoa Refinery process and Blackstone’s unique strategy to convert nickel concentrate blends into battery products in the form of precursor cathode active material (pCAM).
In December 2023, Blackstone entered into an option agreement with CaNickel Mining to acquire the Wabowden nickel projectlocated in the world-class Thompson Nickel Belt in Manitoba, Canada.
The Wabowden project will have the potential to fill the Ta Khoa Refinery, removing dependence on third party feed sources.
The company has signed a non-binding MOU with the Development for Resources Environmental Technology joint stock company (DRET) to investigate opportunities to repurpose and trade waste material (or residue) from the Ta Khoa Refinery into construction material products. Moreover, it has also progressed the Ta Khoa Refinery byproduct offtake strategy with Vietnam Chemical Group (VinaChem), PV Chemical and Equipment Corporation (PVChem) and Nam Phong Green Joint Stock Company (Nam Phong) to sell Ta Khoa Refinery byproducts, being manganese sulphate (or epsomite) and sodium sulphate.
As the company plans to build a global nickel business, Blackstone signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with Yulho Co. Ltd (Yulho) and EN Plus Co. Ltd (EN Plus) to establish a collaboration across the businesses including EN Plus and Yulho who are in joint venture on the Ntaka Hill nickel sulphide project in Tanzania, and the Dinagat Island nickel laterite project in the Philippines.
Company Highlights
- The global nickel market is currently entering a structural deficit, with demand expected to grow 950 percent by 2040.
- Blackstone Minerals is well-positioned to address this deficit as a vertically integrated producer of low-cost, low-carbon nickel.
- Blackstone's flagship project Ta Khoa is a brownfield project situated in Vietnam, one of the lowest capital cost countries in the world and an emerging hub for the electric vehicle market with vast reserves of nickel.
- Vietnam is an increasingly attractive region for investment with direct foreign investments that grew from $1.3 billion in 2000 to $15.6 billion in 2020.
- The Ta Khoa project also has infrastructure advantages, via the existing Ban Phuc mine, and processing facilities, access to low-cost and underutilized hydroelectricity, a trained labor force and support from the local government.
- Blackstone Minerals’ downstream pre-feasibility study confirms a technically and economically robust hydrometallurgical refining process to upgrade nickel sulphide concentrate to produce battery-grade nickel.
- Blackstone’s key nickel and cobalt feedstocks for the Ta Khoa Refinery Pilot program were delivered to the metallurgical laboratory in Western Australia as of April 2022.
Key Project
Ta Khoa
Blackstone holds a 90 percent interest in the Ta Khoa Nickel-Copper-PGE Project, located 160 kilometers west of Hanoi in the Son La Province of Vietnam. It includes an existing modern nickel mine built to Australian Standards, which is currently under care and maintenance. The Ban Phuc nickel mine successfully operated as a mechanized underground nickel mine from 2013 to 2016.
Blackstone intends to complement the existing mine through the installation of a large concentrator, refinery and precursor facility, supporting integrated on-site production of nickel, cobalt and manganese precursor products for the Asia-Pacific market. One of Blackstone's key Research and Development objectives with Ta Khoa is to develop a flowsheet that will support this production.
To fulfill this goal, Blackstone is focusing on a partnership model, collaborating with groups committed to sustainable mining. It is also working to minimize its carbon footprint and implement a vertically integrated supply chain.
Project Highlights:
- Multiple Massive Sulphide Deposits: The Ta Khoa project features several incredibly promising deposits including King Snake (up to 4.3 percent nickel and 18.2 grams per ton (g/t) PGE), Sui Phong (2.95 meters @ 2.42 percent nickel, 0.52 percent copper, 0.06 percent cobalt and 0.05 g/t PGE), and Ban Chang. The project is also the site of the Ban Phuc nickel mine, which was operated from 2013 to 2016 by Asia Mineral Resources, along with several exploration targets that have yet to be tested.
- Experienced Leadership: Internally, Blackstone’s owners’ team brings over 50 years of experience in leadership roles at major nickel mines and refineries globally. This experience has been complemented by ALS Group, Wood, Future Battery Industries CRC, Curtin University and the Electric Mining Consortium.
- Large Reserve and Mining Inventory: The entirety of Ta Khoa is estimated to contain probable reserves of 48.7 Mt at 0.43 percent nickel for 210 kilotons (kt) of nickel and a mining inventory of 64.5 Mt at 0.41 percent nickel for 265 kt nickel. This excludes Ban Khoa and other developing prospects.
- A Long-lived Project: The Ta Khoa mine is expected to produce a yearly average of 18 kt of annual nickel concentrate over its ten-year lifespan. Blackstone believes the refinery can potentially extend its life past ten years.
- An Established Mining Operation: Existing infrastructure onsite includes a 450 ktpa Mill and mining camp. The mine will also benefit from a highly supportive community and favorable government legislation — Blackstone is committed to collaborating with community stakeholders in the project's development.
- Feed Flexibility: Ta Khoa's refinery will offer multiple feed options, including nickel concentrate, mixed hydroxide precipitate, nickel matte and black mass. This flexibility greatly improves the security and greatly reduces the risk of the project overall.
- Valued Partnerships: Blackstone is collaborating with multiple industry leaders and groups in the development of Ta Khoa
- Compelling Pre-feasibility Study: The financial outcomes of a base case pre-feasibility study on the project are promising. Based on a conservative NCM811 precursor price forecast, Ta Khoa displays an exceptional internal return rate on capital invested.
- Integrated Vertical Strategy: Blackstone is constructing both the Ta Khoa mine and refinery against a highly supportive ESG, macroeconomic and fiscal backdrop. This along with Ta Khoa's low capital intensity gives the company a significant advantage over competitors. Said low intensity is the result of multiple factors, including competitive labor costs, favorable regulations and low-cost renewable hydroelectric power.
- A Leader in Low Emissions: Independent assessments from Digbee, Minviro and Circulor, alongside an audit from the Nickel Institute, have confirmed that Ta Khoa will be the lowest-emitting flowsheet in the industry, at 9.8 kilograms of CO2 per kilogram of precursor with opportunities for even further reduction.
- Promising Pilots: With the support of ALS and process engineering partner Wood, Blackstone recently completed a 12-month programme of work that developed a scaled version of its concentrate to sulphate flowsheet. The refinery, which processed more than 9 tonnes of concentrate and MHP, successfully achieved battery-grade nickel sulphate of 99.95 percent, with a nickel recovery rate of 97 percent.
- Current Roadmap: Blackstone's next priority is to complete a series of definitive feasibility studies. Once those are complete, it will focus on fully integrating the mine into the electric vehicle consumer supply chain and finalizing its refining partnership structure.
Management Team
Hamish Halliday - Non-executive Chairman
Hamish Halliday is a geologist with over 20 years of corporate and technical experience. He is also the founder of Adamus Resources Limited, an AU$3 million float that became a multimillion-ounce emerging gold producer.
Scott Williamson - Managing Director
Scott Williamson is a mining engineer with a commerce degree from the West Australian School of Mines and Curtin University. He has over 10 years of experience in technical and corporate roles in the mining and finance sectors.
Dr. Frank Bierlein - Non-executive Director
Dr. Frank Bierlein is a geologist with 30 years of technical and corporate experience, focusing on grassroots to mine-stage mineral exploration, target generation, project management and oversight, due diligence studies, mineral prospectivity analysis, metallogenic framework studies and mineral resources market and investment analysis.
Alison Gaines - Non-executive Director
Alison Gaines has over 20 years of experience as a director in Australia and internationally. She has experience in the roles of board chair and board committee chair, particularly remuneration and nomination and governance committees. She is also the managing director of Gaines Advisory P/L and was recently global CEO of international search and board consulting firm Gerard Daniels, with a significant mining and energy practice.
Gaines has a Bachelor of Laws and a Bachelor of Arts (hons) from the University of Western Australia, a Graduate Diploma in Legal Practice from Australian National University and an honorary doctorate of the University and Master of Arts (Public Policy) from Murdoch University. She is a fellow of the Australian Institute of Company Directors and holds the INSEAD certificate in corporate governance. She is currently the governor of the College of Law Ltd, and non-executive director of Tura New Music.
Dan Lougher - Non-executive Director
Daniel Lougher’s career spans more than 40 years involving a range of exploration, feasibility, development, operations and corporate roles with Australian and international mining companies including a period of eighteen years spent in Africa with BHP Billiton, Impala Plats, Anglo American and Genmin. He was the managing director and chief executive officer of the successful Australian nickel miner Western Areas Ltd until its takeover by Independence Group.
Lougher also holds a first class mine manager’s certificate of competency (WA) and is a fellow of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy (AusIMM). Lougher is the chair of the company’s technical committee and nomination committee.
Jamie Byrde - CFO and Company Secretary
Jamie Byrde has over 16 year's experience in corporate advisory, public and private company management since commencing his career with big four and mid-tier chartered accounting firms positions. Byrde specializes in financial management, ASX and ASIC compliance and corporate governance of mineral and resource focused public companies. He is also currently company secretary for Venture Minerals Limited.
Tessa Kutscher - Executive
Tessa Kutscher is an executive with more than 20 years of experience in working with C-Level executive teams in the fields of business strategy, business planning/optimisation and change management. After starting her career in Germany, she has worked internationally across different industries, such as mining, finance, tourism and tertiary education.
Kutscher holds a master’s degree in literature, linguistics and political science from the University of Bonn, Germany and a master’s degree in teaching from Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich.
Andrew Strickland - Executive
Andrew Strickland is an experienced study and project manager, a fellow of the Australian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, University of WA MBA graduate, with undergraduate degrees in chemical engineering and extractive metallurgy from Curtin and WASM.
Before joining Blackstone, Strickland was a senior study manager for GR Engineering Services where he was responsible for delivering a series of scoping, PFS and DFS studies for both Australian and international projects. Over his career, he has held a variety of project development roles across both junior to mid-tier developers (including Straits Resources, Perseus Mining and Tiger Resources) and major multi-operation producers (South32).
Graham Rigo - Executive
Graham Rigo is an experienced study manager with over a decade of on-site production experience, holding undergraduate degrees in chemical engineering and finance from Curtin University, WA.
Before joining Blackstone, Rigo was a study manager for Ausenco where he was responsible for delivering a series of scoping, PFS and DFS studies for both Australian and international projects over a range of different commodities.
Rigo has over 11 years of site experience in nickel and cobalt hydromet production experience, in supervisory/superintendent level roles as well as process engineer experience.
Lon Taranaki - Executive
Lon Taranaki is an international mining professional with over 25 years of extensive experience in all aspects of resources and mining, feasibility, development and operations. Taranaki is a qualified process engineer from the University of Queensland Australia. He holds a Master of Business Administration, and is a fellow of the Australian Institute of Company Directors. Taranaki has established his career in Asia where he has successfully worked (and lived) across multiple jurisdictions and commodities ranging from technical, mine management and executive management roles.
Prior to joining Blackstone in February 2022, Taranaki was the chief executive officer of Minegenco, a renewable-energy-focused independent power producer. Preceding this, he was managing director of his private consultancy, AMG Mining Global, where he was providing services to the mining industry in Singapore, Guyana, Indonesia and Cambodia. Additionally, Taranaki has held various senior positions with Sakari Resources, PTT Asia Pacific Mining, Straits Resources, Sedgmans and BHP Coal.
World Nickel Outlook 2025
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World Nickel Outlook 2025
Table of Contents
Nickel Price 2024 Year-End Review
Nickel Price Forecast: Top for Nickel in 2025
Nickel Price 2024 Year-End Review
Nickel market activity has been underwhelming for the past couple of years as supply exceeds demand.
This trend continued in 2024's final quarter, with Indonesian supply being the primary force weighing on prices. Indonesia is the largest source of nickel globally, with much output destined for Chinese-owned refineries in the country.
Meanwhile, demand stayed weak as China’s economy continued to sputter. The Asian nation's housing and manufacturing markets are important demand drivers for nickel, which is used in stainless steel products.
Read on to learn what other key factors moved the nickel sector in 2024.
Nickel price in Q4
Nickel reached its 2024 peak of US$21,615 per metric ton on May 20, but was back below the US$16,000 mark by the end of July. Following some volatility in August and September, it reached US$18,221 on October 2.
However, higher prices were not to last, and nickel spent much of Q4 in a downward trend.
By the end of October, nickel had fallen to US$15,732 before climbing back to US$16,607 on November 7.
Since then, the nickel market's downtrend has largely continued. On December 19, the metal slumped to its 2024 low of US$15,090, ultimately ending the year at US$15,300 on December 31.
Nickel price, Q4 2024.
Chart via Trading Economics.
As mentioned, nickel’s weak price performance is largely due to high output from Indonesia and low demand, particularly from Asian markets, as China’s recovery has failed to gain traction.
Against that backdrop, Indonesia said on December 19 that it was considering cutting mining quotas to boost prices. The move would reduce the amount of nickel ore allowed to be mined almost in half, to 150 million metric tons in 2025.
Additionally, Indonesia is looking to tighten environmental regulation compliance for miners in the new year, which could increase volatility for metals including nickel. The move comes not long after the country signed several new agreements in November with Chinese companies that would see billions invested in Indonesian nickel operations.
Indonesia had previously worked to distance itself from partnerships with China as it sought to improve relations with the US and be included under the country's US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
The new agreements emerged shortly after Donald Trump won the US presidential election on November 7. Trump’s return to the Oval Office is unlikely to bode well for Indonesian officials seeking to secure a trade deal with the US. However, a loosening of rules in the IRA might create new inroads for Indonesian nickel producers.
How did nickel perform for the rest of the year?
Nickel price in Q1
The story since the start of the year has been high output from Indonesian operations.
Low prices saw some nickel producers, including major miner First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FM,OTC Pink:FQVLF) and Australia’s Wyloo Metals, cut production. However, New Caledonia was most affected. The country is highly dependent on its nickel sector, with industry giants like Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF), Eramet (EPA:ERA) and raw materials trader Trafigura owning significant stakes in nickel producers in the country.
Ultimately, cuts there led to a 200 million euro bailout package from the French government, which exacerbated tensions over New Caledonia's independence from France. Opponents of the agreement argued that it risks the territory's sovereignty, and that mining companies aren’t contributing enough to bail out the mines, which employ thousands.
Nickel price in Q2
The second quarter was defined by a surge in nickel prices.
Positive momentum began to work its way into the market at the end of Q1, as Indonesia experienced delays in approving mining output quotas and speculation grew that Russian nickel could be sanctioned by the US and UK.
On April 12, news broke that Washington and London had banned US and UK metal exchanges from admitting new aluminum, copper and nickel from Russia. Taking immediate effect, the prohibitions also halted the import of those metals, causing prices to soar to a year-to-date high of US$21,615 on May 20.
At the time, Joe Mazumdar, editor of Exploration Insights, suggested this move would have little impact on the sector.
“That nickel is still going to make it into the market, it’s just going to go to a different exchange, probably Shanghai … So I could still see that nickel moving and getting consumed in the global market — it’s just not coming to the west,” he explained to the Investing News Network in an interview.
Ultimately, by the end of the quarter, the price was trending toward US$17,000.
Nickel price in Q3
Nickel saw a strong end to the third quarter, with prices rising above the US$18,000 mark.
Nickel found support in September as the Chinese government introduced a raft of stimulus measures intended to boost economic growth in the country. Among the measures were a 0.5 percent interest rate cut on existing mortgages, and a reduction in the downpayment required to purchase a home to 15 percent from 25 percent.
The announcement came alongside cuts at Chinese smelters as they were forced to deal with a shortage in feeder supply due to more delays to Indonesia’s permitting and quota system.
Investor takeaway
The nickel market is expected to remain oversupplied for some time.
With China’s economy on a slow path to recovery, demand is projected to remain weak. Meanwhile, supply will likely hinge on whether Indonesia chooses to make significant cuts to its output.
While demand for nickel in electric vehicle batteries is expected to be up 27 percent year-on-year in 2024, producers have also been pursuing alternatives that don’t require as much nickel. Additionally, more consumers are looking to plug-in hybrid vehicles with smaller batteries that require less nickel.
Even with the increased demand from the battery sector, nickel is primarily used in stainless steel products, which are still dominated by the Chinese manufacturing and real estate sectors.
Perhaps the most significant factors to consider are political. A new administration in the US and a shift in its approach to sourcing critical metals like nickel could alter the landscape for nickel producers in 2025.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates.
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Nickel Price Forecast: Top Trends for Nickel in 2025
The nickel market has faced challenges over the past few years due to a supply glut and weak demand.
Even though the price of nickel surged in the first quarter of 2024, higher prices didn’t last. By the end of the year, any gains the base metal had made were erased, and it entered 2025 in the US$15,000 to US$15,200 per metric ton range.
What's in store for the rest of the year, and what nickel trends should investors be watching?
Nickel market oversupply to continue in 2025
Indonesian supply is a key reason nickel prices are under pressure, as is a lack of demand growth.
In comments emailed to the Investing News Network (INN), Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING, suggested that the situation isn’t likely to change for nickel in 2025.
“We believe nickel’s underperformance is likely to continue — at least in the near term — amid weakening demand and a sustained market surplus. A surge in output in Indonesia has dragged nickel lower over recent years, and demand from the stainless steel and electric vehicle (EV) battery sectors continues to disappoint,” she said.
Her statement follows recently introduced measures from China. Set to take effect in 2025, they involve injecting US$1.4 trillion over the next five years, and are meant to help the country’s ailing economy.
However, past measures introduced in 2024, particularly those in September, have yet to significantly affect the nation's housing and manufacturing sectors, which are net demand drivers for stainless steel.
Jason Sappor, senior analyst, metals and mining research, at S&P Global Commodity Insights, expressed similar sentiments about nickel's 2025 performance in comments to INN.
“We expect the market to remain oversupplied in 2025, as Indonesia and China’s primary nickel output expands further,” he said. Sappor added that subdued prices could lead to further output curtailments across the industry. This would be in addition to cuts already made at various operations around the world, particularly in Oceania.
The situation even has top producer Indonesia considering restricting output.
“The latest news reports that Indonesia’s government is considering making deep cuts to nickel-mining quotas to boost prices also highlight that the implementation of restrictions on the country’s nickel output should not be ignored as a risk to forecasts for the market to stay in surplus in 2025,” Sappor said.
For her part, Manthey suggested that cuts to nickel supply in 2024 did little to upset the market surplus — instead, they may have solidified Indonesia’s dominance over the industry.
“The recent supply curtailments also limit the supply alternatives to the dominance of Indonesia, where the majority of production is backed by Chinese investment. This comes at a time when the US and the EU are looking to reduce their dependence on third countries to access critical raw materials, including nickel,” she said.
Will Trump change the Inflation Reduction Act?
One of the biggest factors that could come into play in 2025 is Donald Trump's return to the White House.
During his campaign, Trump made several promises that could lead to a shift in the US’ environmental and energy transition policies. While nothing is set in stone just yet, the actions he takes could include reversing commitments made under the Paris Agreement and ending tax credits for EVs.
A significant unknown is how Trump will approach the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
The program, which was established under the outgoing Biden administration, was designed to stimulate a move away from fossil fuels, while also supporting the procurement of friendly supply of low-carbon nickel.
One part of the IRA has made it challenging for Indonesia to export nickel to the US. As it stands, EVs must meet foreign entity of concern (FEOC) rules to qualify for the US$7,500 tax credit outlined under the IRA.
The US considers nations like China, Russia, Iran and North Korea to be areas of concern. Under rule 30D of the act, these nations cannot control more than 25 percent of the board seats, voting rights or equity interests of any company that supplies critical minerals for EV batteries destined for the US.
This has been a major obstacle for Indonesia as it has worked to build a trade partnership with the US.
Manthey outlined how Trump may seek to tighten rules, making a trade pact with Indonesia more difficult.
“Indonesia has been trying to reduce China-based ownership of new nickel projects to help its nickel sector qualify for the IRA tax credits. Tighter FEOC rules would create more issues for nickel supply chains, and would be an obstacle to Indonesia’s goal of expanding its export market to the US,” she said.
Manthey also said if the rules are tightened, primary and intermediate production will continue to be sent to China.
Investor takeaway
Barring any major shift in the supply and demand environment, nickel prices are unlikely to see significant gains over the next year. For investors, this is likely to make for a less supportive environment.
“The surplus in the Class 1 market is reflected in the rising exchange stocks," said Manthey.
"Further inflows of Chinese and Indonesian metal into the exchange’s sheds could put additional downward pressure on the London Metal Exchange’s nickel prices," she added in her comments to INN.
For Manthey, the potential upside would be stronger stainless steel output or restricted ore supply from Indonesia. However, slower EV market growth or the cancellation of some incentives in the US could offset this.
Overall, she isn’t expecting large price movements in the coming year.
“We forecast nickel prices to remain under pressure next year as the surplus in the global market continues. We see prices averaging US$15,700 in 2025,” Manthey said.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: FPX Nickel is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
5 Best-performing Canadian Nickel Stocks of 2024
After trending down in 2023, nickel prices climbed to a 10 month high in late May of this year. However, they've since pulled back to four year lows. While this environment has been tough, some nickel stocks are still thriving.
Supply is expected to outflank demand over the short term, but the longer-term outlook for the metal is strong. Demand from the electric vehicle (EV) industry is one reason nickel's outlook looks bright further into the future.
Battery nickel demand is poised to triple by 2030, according to Benchmar Mineral Intelligence.
“Mid and high level performance EVs will be the primary driver of battery nickel demand growth in the coming years, particularly in Western markets,” said Jorge Uzcategui, senior nickel analyst at the firm.
“There will be growth in China, but it won’t be as pronounced as in ex-China markets.”
As for Canada, nickel is listed as a top priority in the government's Critical Minerals Strategy. The country is the world's fifth largest producer of nickel, with much of its production coming from mines in Ontario's Sudbury Basin, including Vale’s (NYSE:VALE) Sudbury operation and Glencore's (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF) Sudbury Integrated Nickel Operations.
In February, Canada Nickel Company (TSXV:CNC,OTCQX:CNIKF) announced its subsidiary NetZero Metals is planning to develop a US$1 billion nickel-processing plant in Ontario that will become North America’s largest once complete.
How have Canadian nickel stocks performed in 2024? Below are the top nickel stocks in Canada on the TSXV and CSE by share price performance so far this year. TSX stocks were considered, but didn't make the cut.
All year-to-date and share price data was obtained on December 13, 2024, using TradingView’s stock screener. The top nickel stocks in Canada listed had market caps above C$10 million at that time.
1. Class 1 Nickel and Technologies (CSE:NICO)
Year-to-date gain: 533.33 percent
Market cap: C$35.9 million
Share price: C$0.19
Class 1 Nickel and Technologies' flagship property is its Alexo-Dundonald nickel project near Timmins, Ontario. The past-producing asset hosts four nickel sulfide deposits. The company’s pipeline also includes the past-producing Somanike nickel-copper project near Val-d’Or, Québec, and the River Valley platinum-group metals (PGMs) project near Sudbury, Ontario.
Class 1 Nickel released resource estimate updates for the Alexo South and Alexo North deposits in April and May of this year, respectively. The company said it expects to start work on a preliminary economic assessment for Alexo-Dundonald in the near term as part of its plan to bring the asset back into production.
On October 3, Class 1 Nickel put out an updated resource estimate for the Dundonald South nickel deposit. In the indicated category, the company reported a 781 percent increase in metric tons of ore and a 474 percent increase in pounds of nickel.
The Canadian nickel exploration company's share price started off the year at C$0.06, and began climbing in April to reach a year-to-date high of C$0.40 on November 18.
2. Power Nickel (TSXV:PNPN)
Year-to-date gain: 318.18 percent
Market cap: C$187.23 million
Share price: C$0.92
Power Nickel is developing its 80 percent owned Nisk polymetallic property in Québec, which hosts nickel, copper, platinum and palladium mineralization. According to the company, it plans to create Canada's first carbon-neutral nickel mine. The polymetallic nature of the project is a plus for the economic case for future nickel production in a low price environment.
This ongoing work has generated positive news flow for the company in 2024. After starting the year at C$0.24, Power Nickel began gaining in mid-April following two key announcements. First, the company released drill results from the newly discovered Lion zone 5 kilometers northeast of the main Nisk deposit. Shortly after, it announced the completion of its option to earn an 80 percent stake in Nisk from Critical Elements Lithium (TSXV:CRE,OTCQX:CRECF).
Power Nickel’s share price jumped more than 15 percent on May 10 to reach C$0.64 following news that drilling continued to expand the high-grade, near-surface Lion discovery, with notable assays including 14.42 meters at 0.59 grams per metric ton (g/t) gold, 69.14 g/t silver, 8.17 percent copper, 6.25 g/t palladium, 8.44 g/t platinum and 0.58 percent nickel.
In June, Power Nickel started an 8,000 meter drill program at Nisk, and closed a flow-through offering for gross proceeds of over C$20 million. Some of the biggest names in mining — Robert Friedland and Rob McEwen — participated.
The company's excellent news flow continued into the fourth quarter with a series of stellar drill results from its Nisk winter drill program, including significant intersections as shared in its October 3, October 28 and November 11 news releases. Additionally, on December 5, Power Nickel announced it was executing a spinout of its interest in the Golden Ivan property in Chile into a wholly owned subsidiary called Chilean Metals.
Power Nickel continued to climb before peaking at a year-to-date high of C$0.96 on December 12. On that same day, the company released another set of positive assay results from its work at Nisk.
3. Magna Mining (TSXV:NICU)
Year-to-date gain: 234.15 percent
Market cap: C$214.48 million
Share price: C$1.37
Magna Mining is a base metal exploration and development company based in Sudbury, Ontario.
The company’s flagship assets are the Shakespeare mine and the Crean Hill project. Shakespeare is a past-producing nickel-copper-PGMs mine with major permits in place. It hosts an indicated open-pit resource of 16.51 million metric tons at 0.56 percent nickel equivalent. Crean Hill is a past-producing nickel, copper and PGMs mine.
In March, Magna announced the signing of a definitive offtake agreement with Vale Base Metals' wholly owned subsidiary Vale Canada for the advanced exploration portion of Crean Hill. A few months later, in June, it inked a toll-milling agreement with Glencore Canada for the surface bulk sample of the 109 Footwall zone at Crean Hill.
The company entered into a definitive share purchase agreement with a subsidiary of KGHM Polska Miedz (FWB:KGHA) to acquire a portfolio of base metals assets located in the Sudbury Basin, including the producing McCreedy West copper-nickel mine. In November, Magna completed an updated preliminary economic assessment at Crean Hill.
Magna's share price started off the year at C$0.57, and gradually climbing to double its value by September 13. It reached a year-to-date high of C$1.67 on December 4.
4. Tartisan Nickel (CSE:TN)
Year-to-date gain: 108.7 percent
Market cap: C$27.19 million
Share price: C$0.24
Tartisan Nickel is a Canadian battery metals exploration and development company that's focused on developing the Kenbridge nickel-copper-cobalt project located in Northwestern Ontario, Canada.
Tartisan acquired additional exploration claims for Kenbridge in mid-May. In November, the company closed a C$1.5 million flow-through financing with proceeds primarily going to fund the exploration and development of the project.
Shares of Tartisan Nickel fluctuated significantly in 2024. The company kicked off the year at C$0.19 before falling to a low of C$0.10 on March 12. However, its share price climbed rapidly in May to reach a year-to-date high of C$0.26 on May 16. Although shares fell as low as C$0.12 in late June, their value doubled back up to C$0.24 on December 13.
5. EV Nickel (TSXV:EVNI)
Year-to-date gain: 70.83 percent
Market cap: C$38.41 million
Share price: C$0.41
EV Nickel’s primary project is the 30,000 hectare Shaw Dome asset, which is situated near Timmins, Ontario. The property includes the high-grade W4 deposit, which has a resource of 2 million metric tons at 0.98 percent nickel for 43.3 million pounds of Class 1 nickel across the measured, indicated and inferred categories.
Shaw Dome also holds the large-scale CarLang A zone, which has a resource of 1 billion metric tons at 0.24 percent nickel for 5.3 billion pounds of Class 1 nickel across the indicated and inferred categories.
EV Nickel is working on integrating carbon capture and storage technology for large-scale clean nickel production, and has procured funding from the Canadian government and Ontario's provincial government. In late 2023, the company announced it was moving its carbon capture research and development to the pilot plant stage.
The company's news in 2024 includes the closure of a flow-through financing in March that ultimately saw EV Nickel raise C$5.12 million to fund the development of its high-grade, large-scale nickel resources.
In April, EV Nickel launched an exploration program that is aimed at advancing the CarLang trend and exploring other nickel targets. The most recent news out of the program came in early September with the announcement that diamond drilling at the Langmuir #2 high-priority nickel target had confirmed high-grade nickel, with intercepts such as 18.5 meters grading 1.07 percent nickel, 7.5 meters grading 1.67 percent nickel, 2 meters grading 3.27 percent nickel and 1 meter grading 5.11 percent nickel. EV Nickel described the results as "very encouraging."
The Canadian nickel exploration company's share price started off the year at C$0.30 before steadily climbing to reach a year-to-date high of C$0.79 on May 17.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Canada Nickel Company is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
ASX Nickel Stocks: 5 Biggest Nickel-mining Companies
Nickel has traditionally been used in alloys such as stainless steel. However, in recent years, growing demand for lithium-ion batteries has brought attention to its role in the quickly developing battery sector.
In Australia, the country's largest nickel-mining stocks are providing key support for both markets.
Nickel saw strong volatility in the first half of 2024 as Indonesian supply continued to flood the market, with some companies curtailing their production as the price fell below the US$16,000 per tonne mark in February.
A broad increase in commodities prices in April and May pushed nickel to a year-to-date high of US$21,615, but the base metal wasn't able to hold on to those gains and quickly dropped below the US$16,000 mark. Despite a boost past US$18,000 in early October, as of December 17, nickel prices were back down to US$15,775.
Given the challenges for nickel in 2024, share prices for many Australian producers have declined. However, with the long-term outlook for nickel looking more robust, there may be chances for less risk-averse investors to find entry points.
Below are the five largest nickel stocks on the ASX by market cap. Data for this list was gathered using TradingView's stock screener, and all values were accurate as of December 17, 2024.
1. BHP (ASX:BHP)
Market cap: AU$204.67 billion
Share price: AU$40.52
BHP is a diversified mining company with headquarters in Melbourne, Australia. Worldwide, BHP runs dozens of mines that span North and South America and Australia. The company produces nickel sulphide ore out of its operations in Western Australia's Northern Goldfields area. It covers the mining, development and production of nickel until both matte and metal are ready to be shipped to buyers. BHP sells over 85 percent of its nickel to the electric vehicle (EV) industry.
BHP is on its way toward net-zero nickel production. In September 2022, its Nickel West division signed a deal with renewable energy company Enel Green Power to begin construction of the Flat Rocks wind farm in Western Australia. The project is set to include 18 wind turbines, and they will be the tallest wind turbines in Western Australia. As of October 2023, more than half of the wind turbines were already in place. The first stage of the wind farm is expected to provide enough energy to power BHP's Kalgoorlie nickel smelter and Kambalda concentrator once complete.
In the operational review for its 2024 fiscal year, which ended on June 30, BHP reported production of 81,600 tonnes of nickel during the period, a 2 percent increase compared to its 2023 fiscal year. This came in at the middle range of the major mining company's 2024 guidance, which was set at 77,000 to 87,000 tonnes.
In October, BHP temporarily suspended nickel production from Nickel West due to oversupply and low prices, but will continue to invest in the site to enable a restart and support. It will review the decision by February 2027.
2. IGO (ASX:IGO)
Market cap: AU$3.79 billion
Share price: AU$5.09
IGO is a diversified miner that produces several different metals, but its focus is on its 100 percent owned Nova nickel-copper-cobalt operation. Nova is located in Western Australia's Fraser Range and primarily produces nickel.
The company's results for its first fiscal quarter of 2025 show that nickel production from Nova came in at 3,692 tonnes, down 42 percent from the previous quarter on reduced ore grades and a flow through to recoveries.
IGO's other nickel production operation is Forrestania, which was placed on care and maintenance as of the December quarter of 2024. Forrestania put out 802 tonnes in Q1, down 36 percent from the previous quarter due to the earlier-than-planned closure of the Spotted Quoll mine following a major seismic event in July.
IGO also has a 49 percent stake in the Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia joint venture with Tianqi Lithium (SZSE:002466,HKEX:9696). The joint venture has 51 percent ownership of Greenbushes, Australia's largest lithium mine.
3. Nickel Industries (ASX:NIC)
Market cap: AU$3.78 billion
Share price: AU$0.84
New South Wales-based Nickel Industries, formerly Nickel Mines, is a significant producer of nickel pig iron, a critical component in manufacturing stainless steel. The company began producing high-grade nickel matte for EVs in 2022.
Nickel Industries has 80 percent interests in multiple nickel rotary kiln electric furnace (RKEF) operations in Indonesia: Hengjaya Nickel, Oracle Nickel and Ranger Nickel in the Morowali Industrial Park, and Angel Nickel in the Weda Bay Industrial Park. It also has an 80 percent interest in the Hengjaya nickel mine near the Morowali Industrial Park.
In the company's 2023 annual report, it reported that its operations set a nickel production record of 131,126 tonnes. This included contained nickel in the 834,192 tonnes of nickel pig iron it produced with an average grade of 12.9 percent nickel, along with additional low-grade matte production of 119,822 tonnes grading 17.1 percent.
In its June quarterly report, the company said it had brought its interest in the Excelsior nickel-cobalt project up to 44 percent, an increase of 30.25 percent. The project is under construction and is expected to commissioned ahead of October 2025. Nickel Industries' September quarterly report shows that the period was the company's strongest quarter of the year, delivering over US$100 million in EBITDA from operations.
4. Centaurus Metals (ASX:CTM)
Market cap: AU$183.78 million
Share price: AU$0.375
Centaurus Metals is a mining and development company based in Brazil.
According to the company, its goal is to become a major supplier of nickel sulphide to help provide a cleaner and greener future. The firm has its sights set on the development of its wholly owned Jaguar nickel-copper-cobalt project, which is located in Brazil's Carajás mineral province.
On July 2, Centaurus released a feasibility study for Jaguar forecasting an after-tax net present value of AU$997 million with an internal rate of return of 31 percent and payback period of 2.7 years from first production.
The following month, the company released an updated mineral resource estimate of 138.2 million tonnes at 0.87 percent nickel for 1.2 million tonnes of contained nickel. This includes measured and indicated resources of 112.6 million tonnes at 0.87 percent nickel for 978,900 tonnes of contained nickel. According to Centaurus, an underground scoping study is now underway on the high-grade nickel resource immediately below the feasibility study pit.
5. Ardea Resources (ASX:ARL)
Market cap: AU$69.89 million
Share price: AU$0.335
Ardea Resources is developing its wholly owned Kalgoorlie nickel-cobalt project in Western Australia, which includes the Goongarrie Hub deposit. The company has said the project “hosts the largest nickel-cobalt resource in the developed world.” Ardea is currently working toward a planned definitive feasibility study (DFS).
A 2023 prefeasibility study for Goongarrie Hub shows an ore reserve of 194.1 million tonnes at 0.7 percent nickel and 0.05 percent cobalt, resulting in 1.36 million tonnes of contained nickel and 99,000 tonnes of contained cobalt. The study indicates an open-pit operation with a 40 year life and annual output of 30,000 tonnes of nickel and 2,000 tonnes of cobalt.
In July 2023, the company signed a memorandum of understanding to develop Goongarrie Hub with a Japanese consortium consisting of Sumitomo Metal Mining (TSE:5713), Mitsubishi (TSE:8058) and Mitsui (TSE:8031). On February 29, Ardea shared that it had agreed with the consortium on a DFS budget and the scope of work for the study.
On August 14, the consortium obtained approval from the Australian Foreign Investment Review Board for its investment; it also received merger control clearance from the Korea Fair Trade Commission.
Ardea provided an update on progress toward Kalgoorlie's DFS in its September quarterly report.
Article by Melissa Pistilli; FAQs by Lauren Kelly.
This is an updated version of an article first published by the Investing News Network in 2018.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Australia for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Securities Disclosure: I, Lauren Kelly, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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Nickel and the Battery Boom in 2025
Nickel Price 2024 Year-End Review
Nickel market activity has been underwhelming for the past couple of years as supply exceeds demand.
This trend continued in 2024's final quarter, with Indonesian supply being the primary force weighing on prices. Indonesia is the largest source of nickel globally, with much output destined for Chinese-owned refineries in the country.
Meanwhile, demand stayed weak as China’s economy continued to sputter. The Asian nation's housing and manufacturing markets are important demand drivers for nickel, which is used in stainless steel products.
Read on to learn what other key factors moved the nickel sector in 2024.
Nickel price in Q4
Nickel reached its 2024 peak of US$21,615 per metric ton on May 20, but was back below the US$16,000 mark by the end of July. Following some volatility in August and September, it reached US$18,221 on October 2.
However, higher prices were not to last, and nickel spent much of Q4 in a downward trend.
By the end of October, nickel had fallen to US$15,732 before climbing back to US$16,607 on November 7.
Since then, the nickel market's downtrend has largely continued. On December 19, the metal slumped to its 2024 low of US$15,090, ultimately ending the year at US$15,300 on December 31.
Nickel price, Q4 2024.
Chart via Trading Economics.
As mentioned, nickel’s weak price performance is largely due to high output from Indonesia and low demand, particularly from Asian markets, as China’s recovery has failed to gain traction.
Against that backdrop, Indonesia said on December 19 that it was considering cutting mining quotas to boost prices. The move would reduce the amount of nickel ore allowed to be mined almost in half, to 150 million metric tons in 2025.
Additionally, Indonesia is looking to tighten environmental regulation compliance for miners in the new year, which could increase volatility for metals including nickel. The move comes not long after the country signed several new agreements in November with Chinese companies that would see billions invested in Indonesian nickel operations.
Indonesia had previously worked to distance itself from partnerships with China as it sought to improve relations with the US and be included under the country's US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
The new agreements emerged shortly after Donald Trump won the US presidential election on November 7. Trump’s return to the Oval Office is unlikely to bode well for Indonesian officials seeking to secure a trade deal with the US. However, a loosening of rules in the IRA might create new inroads for Indonesian nickel producers.
How did nickel perform for the rest of the year?
Nickel price in Q1
The story since the start of the year has been high output from Indonesian operations.
Low prices saw some nickel producers, including major miner First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FM,OTC Pink:FQVLF) and Australia’s Wyloo Metals, cut production. However, New Caledonia was most affected. The country is highly dependent on its nickel sector, with industry giants like Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF), Eramet (EPA:ERA) and raw materials trader Trafigura owning significant stakes in nickel producers in the country.
Ultimately, cuts there led to a 200 million euro bailout package from the French government, which exacerbated tensions over New Caledonia's independence from France. Opponents of the agreement argued that it risks the territory's sovereignty, and that mining companies aren’t contributing enough to bail out the mines, which employ thousands.
Nickel price in Q2
The second quarter was defined by a surge in nickel prices.
Positive momentum began to work its way into the market at the end of Q1, as Indonesia experienced delays in approving mining output quotas and speculation grew that Russian nickel could be sanctioned by the US and UK.
On April 12, news broke that Washington and London had banned US and UK metal exchanges from admitting new aluminum, copper and nickel from Russia. Taking immediate effect, the prohibitions also halted the import of those metals, causing prices to soar to a year-to-date high of US$21,615 on May 20.
At the time, Joe Mazumdar, editor of Exploration Insights, suggested this move would have little impact on the sector.
“That nickel is still going to make it into the market, it’s just going to go to a different exchange, probably Shanghai … So I could still see that nickel moving and getting consumed in the global market — it’s just not coming to the west,” he explained to the Investing News Network in an interview.
Ultimately, by the end of the quarter, the price was trending toward US$17,000.
Nickel price in Q3
Nickel saw a strong end to the third quarter, with prices rising above the US$18,000 mark.
Nickel found support in September as the Chinese government introduced a raft of stimulus measures intended to boost economic growth in the country. Among the measures were a 0.5 percent interest rate cut on existing mortgages, and a reduction in the downpayment required to purchase a home to 15 percent from 25 percent.
The announcement came alongside cuts at Chinese smelters as they were forced to deal with a shortage in feeder supply due to more delays to Indonesia’s permitting and quota system.
Investor takeaway
The nickel market is expected to remain oversupplied for some time.
With China’s economy on a slow path to recovery, demand is projected to remain weak. Meanwhile, supply will likely hinge on whether Indonesia chooses to make significant cuts to its output.
While demand for nickel in electric vehicle batteries is expected to be up 27 percent year-on-year in 2024, producers have also been pursuing alternatives that don’t require as much nickel. Additionally, more consumers are looking to plug-in hybrid vehicles with smaller batteries that require less nickel.
Even with the increased demand from the battery sector, nickel is primarily used in stainless steel products, which are still dominated by the Chinese manufacturing and real estate sectors.
Perhaps the most significant factors to consider are political. A new administration in the US and a shift in its approach to sourcing critical metals like nickel could alter the landscape for nickel producers in 2025.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates.
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Nickel Price Forecast: Top Trends for Nickel in 2025
The nickel market has faced challenges over the past few years due to a supply glut and weak demand.
Even though the price of nickel surged in the first quarter of 2024, higher prices didn’t last. By the end of the year, any gains the base metal had made were erased, and it entered 2025 in the US$15,000 to US$15,200 per metric ton range.
What's in store for the rest of the year, and what nickel trends should investors be watching?
Nickel market oversupply to continue in 2025
Indonesian supply is a key reason nickel prices are under pressure, as is a lack of demand growth.
In comments emailed to the Investing News Network (INN), Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING, suggested that the situation isn’t likely to change for nickel in 2025.
“We believe nickel’s underperformance is likely to continue — at least in the near term — amid weakening demand and a sustained market surplus. A surge in output in Indonesia has dragged nickel lower over recent years, and demand from the stainless steel and electric vehicle (EV) battery sectors continues to disappoint,” she said.
Her statement follows recently introduced measures from China. Set to take effect in 2025, they involve injecting US$1.4 trillion over the next five years, and are meant to help the country’s ailing economy.
However, past measures introduced in 2024, particularly those in September, have yet to significantly affect the nation's housing and manufacturing sectors, which are net demand drivers for stainless steel.
Jason Sappor, senior analyst, metals and mining research, at S&P Global Commodity Insights, expressed similar sentiments about nickel's 2025 performance in comments to INN.
“We expect the market to remain oversupplied in 2025, as Indonesia and China’s primary nickel output expands further,” he said. Sappor added that subdued prices could lead to further output curtailments across the industry. This would be in addition to cuts already made at various operations around the world, particularly in Oceania.
The situation even has top producer Indonesia considering restricting output.
“The latest news reports that Indonesia’s government is considering making deep cuts to nickel-mining quotas to boost prices also highlight that the implementation of restrictions on the country’s nickel output should not be ignored as a risk to forecasts for the market to stay in surplus in 2025,” Sappor said.
For her part, Manthey suggested that cuts to nickel supply in 2024 did little to upset the market surplus — instead, they may have solidified Indonesia’s dominance over the industry.
“The recent supply curtailments also limit the supply alternatives to the dominance of Indonesia, where the majority of production is backed by Chinese investment. This comes at a time when the US and the EU are looking to reduce their dependence on third countries to access critical raw materials, including nickel,” she said.
Will Trump change the Inflation Reduction Act?
One of the biggest factors that could come into play in 2025 is Donald Trump's return to the White House.
During his campaign, Trump made several promises that could lead to a shift in the US’ environmental and energy transition policies. While nothing is set in stone just yet, the actions he takes could include reversing commitments made under the Paris Agreement and ending tax credits for EVs.
A significant unknown is how Trump will approach the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
The program, which was established under the outgoing Biden administration, was designed to stimulate a move away from fossil fuels, while also supporting the procurement of friendly supply of low-carbon nickel.
One part of the IRA has made it challenging for Indonesia to export nickel to the US. As it stands, EVs must meet foreign entity of concern (FEOC) rules to qualify for the US$7,500 tax credit outlined under the IRA.
The US considers nations like China, Russia, Iran and North Korea to be areas of concern. Under rule 30D of the act, these nations cannot control more than 25 percent of the board seats, voting rights or equity interests of any company that supplies critical minerals for EV batteries destined for the US.
This has been a major obstacle for Indonesia as it has worked to build a trade partnership with the US.
Manthey outlined how Trump may seek to tighten rules, making a trade pact with Indonesia more difficult.
“Indonesia has been trying to reduce China-based ownership of new nickel projects to help its nickel sector qualify for the IRA tax credits. Tighter FEOC rules would create more issues for nickel supply chains, and would be an obstacle to Indonesia’s goal of expanding its export market to the US,” she said.
Manthey also said if the rules are tightened, primary and intermediate production will continue to be sent to China.
Investor takeaway
Barring any major shift in the supply and demand environment, nickel prices are unlikely to see significant gains over the next year. For investors, this is likely to make for a less supportive environment.
“The surplus in the Class 1 market is reflected in the rising exchange stocks," said Manthey.
"Further inflows of Chinese and Indonesian metal into the exchange’s sheds could put additional downward pressure on the London Metal Exchange’s nickel prices," she added in her comments to INN.
For Manthey, the potential upside would be stronger stainless steel output or restricted ore supply from Indonesia. However, slower EV market growth or the cancellation of some incentives in the US could offset this.
Overall, she isn’t expecting large price movements in the coming year.
“We forecast nickel prices to remain under pressure next year as the surplus in the global market continues. We see prices averaging US$15,700 in 2025,” Manthey said.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: FPX Nickel is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
5 Best-performing Canadian Nickel Stocks of 2024
After trending down in 2023, nickel prices climbed to a 10 month high in late May of this year. However, they've since pulled back to four year lows. While this environment has been tough, some nickel stocks are still thriving.
Supply is expected to outflank demand over the short term, but the longer-term outlook for the metal is strong. Demand from the electric vehicle (EV) industry is one reason nickel's outlook looks bright further into the future.
Battery nickel demand is poised to triple by 2030, according to Benchmar Mineral Intelligence.
“Mid and high level performance EVs will be the primary driver of battery nickel demand growth in the coming years, particularly in Western markets,” said Jorge Uzcategui, senior nickel analyst at the firm.
“There will be growth in China, but it won’t be as pronounced as in ex-China markets.”
As for Canada, nickel is listed as a top priority in the government's Critical Minerals Strategy. The country is the world's fifth largest producer of nickel, with much of its production coming from mines in Ontario's Sudbury Basin, including Vale’s (NYSE:VALE) Sudbury operation and Glencore's (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF) Sudbury Integrated Nickel Operations.
In February, Canada Nickel Company (TSXV:CNC,OTCQX:CNIKF) announced its subsidiary NetZero Metals is planning to develop a US$1 billion nickel-processing plant in Ontario that will become North America’s largest once complete.
How have Canadian nickel stocks performed in 2024? Below are the top nickel stocks in Canada on the TSXV and CSE by share price performance so far this year. TSX stocks were considered, but didn't make the cut.
All year-to-date and share price data was obtained on December 13, 2024, using TradingView’s stock screener. The top nickel stocks in Canada listed had market caps above C$10 million at that time.
1. Class 1 Nickel and Technologies (CSE:NICO)
Year-to-date gain: 533.33 percent
Market cap: C$35.9 million
Share price: C$0.19
Class 1 Nickel and Technologies' flagship property is its Alexo-Dundonald nickel project near Timmins, Ontario. The past-producing asset hosts four nickel sulfide deposits. The company’s pipeline also includes the past-producing Somanike nickel-copper project near Val-d’Or, Québec, and the River Valley platinum-group metals (PGMs) project near Sudbury, Ontario.
Class 1 Nickel released resource estimate updates for the Alexo South and Alexo North deposits in April and May of this year, respectively. The company said it expects to start work on a preliminary economic assessment for Alexo-Dundonald in the near term as part of its plan to bring the asset back into production.
On October 3, Class 1 Nickel put out an updated resource estimate for the Dundonald South nickel deposit. In the indicated category, the company reported a 781 percent increase in metric tons of ore and a 474 percent increase in pounds of nickel.
The Canadian nickel exploration company's share price started off the year at C$0.06, and began climbing in April to reach a year-to-date high of C$0.40 on November 18.
2. Power Nickel (TSXV:PNPN)
Year-to-date gain: 318.18 percent
Market cap: C$187.23 million
Share price: C$0.92
Power Nickel is developing its 80 percent owned Nisk polymetallic property in Québec, which hosts nickel, copper, platinum and palladium mineralization. According to the company, it plans to create Canada's first carbon-neutral nickel mine. The polymetallic nature of the project is a plus for the economic case for future nickel production in a low price environment.
This ongoing work has generated positive news flow for the company in 2024. After starting the year at C$0.24, Power Nickel began gaining in mid-April following two key announcements. First, the company released drill results from the newly discovered Lion zone 5 kilometers northeast of the main Nisk deposit. Shortly after, it announced the completion of its option to earn an 80 percent stake in Nisk from Critical Elements Lithium (TSXV:CRE,OTCQX:CRECF).
Power Nickel’s share price jumped more than 15 percent on May 10 to reach C$0.64 following news that drilling continued to expand the high-grade, near-surface Lion discovery, with notable assays including 14.42 meters at 0.59 grams per metric ton (g/t) gold, 69.14 g/t silver, 8.17 percent copper, 6.25 g/t palladium, 8.44 g/t platinum and 0.58 percent nickel.
In June, Power Nickel started an 8,000 meter drill program at Nisk, and closed a flow-through offering for gross proceeds of over C$20 million. Some of the biggest names in mining — Robert Friedland and Rob McEwen — participated.
The company's excellent news flow continued into the fourth quarter with a series of stellar drill results from its Nisk winter drill program, including significant intersections as shared in its October 3, October 28 and November 11 news releases. Additionally, on December 5, Power Nickel announced it was executing a spinout of its interest in the Golden Ivan property in Chile into a wholly owned subsidiary called Chilean Metals.
Power Nickel continued to climb before peaking at a year-to-date high of C$0.96 on December 12. On that same day, the company released another set of positive assay results from its work at Nisk.
3. Magna Mining (TSXV:NICU)
Year-to-date gain: 234.15 percent
Market cap: C$214.48 million
Share price: C$1.37
Magna Mining is a base metal exploration and development company based in Sudbury, Ontario.
The company’s flagship assets are the Shakespeare mine and the Crean Hill project. Shakespeare is a past-producing nickel-copper-PGMs mine with major permits in place. It hosts an indicated open-pit resource of 16.51 million metric tons at 0.56 percent nickel equivalent. Crean Hill is a past-producing nickel, copper and PGMs mine.
In March, Magna announced the signing of a definitive offtake agreement with Vale Base Metals' wholly owned subsidiary Vale Canada for the advanced exploration portion of Crean Hill. A few months later, in June, it inked a toll-milling agreement with Glencore Canada for the surface bulk sample of the 109 Footwall zone at Crean Hill.
The company entered into a definitive share purchase agreement with a subsidiary of KGHM Polska Miedz (FWB:KGHA) to acquire a portfolio of base metals assets located in the Sudbury Basin, including the producing McCreedy West copper-nickel mine. In November, Magna completed an updated preliminary economic assessment at Crean Hill.
Magna's share price started off the year at C$0.57, and gradually climbing to double its value by September 13. It reached a year-to-date high of C$1.67 on December 4.
4. Tartisan Nickel (CSE:TN)
Year-to-date gain: 108.7 percent
Market cap: C$27.19 million
Share price: C$0.24
Tartisan Nickel is a Canadian battery metals exploration and development company that's focused on developing the Kenbridge nickel-copper-cobalt project located in Northwestern Ontario, Canada.
Tartisan acquired additional exploration claims for Kenbridge in mid-May. In November, the company closed a C$1.5 million flow-through financing with proceeds primarily going to fund the exploration and development of the project.
Shares of Tartisan Nickel fluctuated significantly in 2024. The company kicked off the year at C$0.19 before falling to a low of C$0.10 on March 12. However, its share price climbed rapidly in May to reach a year-to-date high of C$0.26 on May 16. Although shares fell as low as C$0.12 in late June, their value doubled back up to C$0.24 on December 13.
5. EV Nickel (TSXV:EVNI)
Year-to-date gain: 70.83 percent
Market cap: C$38.41 million
Share price: C$0.41
EV Nickel’s primary project is the 30,000 hectare Shaw Dome asset, which is situated near Timmins, Ontario. The property includes the high-grade W4 deposit, which has a resource of 2 million metric tons at 0.98 percent nickel for 43.3 million pounds of Class 1 nickel across the measured, indicated and inferred categories.
Shaw Dome also holds the large-scale CarLang A zone, which has a resource of 1 billion metric tons at 0.24 percent nickel for 5.3 billion pounds of Class 1 nickel across the indicated and inferred categories.
EV Nickel is working on integrating carbon capture and storage technology for large-scale clean nickel production, and has procured funding from the Canadian government and Ontario's provincial government. In late 2023, the company announced it was moving its carbon capture research and development to the pilot plant stage.
The company's news in 2024 includes the closure of a flow-through financing in March that ultimately saw EV Nickel raise C$5.12 million to fund the development of its high-grade, large-scale nickel resources.
In April, EV Nickel launched an exploration program that is aimed at advancing the CarLang trend and exploring other nickel targets. The most recent news out of the program came in early September with the announcement that diamond drilling at the Langmuir #2 high-priority nickel target had confirmed high-grade nickel, with intercepts such as 18.5 meters grading 1.07 percent nickel, 7.5 meters grading 1.67 percent nickel, 2 meters grading 3.27 percent nickel and 1 meter grading 5.11 percent nickel. EV Nickel described the results as "very encouraging."
The Canadian nickel exploration company's share price started off the year at C$0.30 before steadily climbing to reach a year-to-date high of C$0.79 on May 17.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Canada Nickel Company is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
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