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Cobalt Market Forecast and Cobalt Stocks to Buy in 2025
Cobalt Market 2024 Year-End Review
Cobalt prices started 2024 trading at the US$29,151.50 per metric ton (MT) level, the highest price point the battery metal achieved for the year. By December, it had contracted by 16.68 percent to US$24,287.90.
Prices remained under pressure due to oversupply, with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) maintaining its dominant position as the world’s largest producer. Meanwhile, efforts to diversify supply chains and reduce reliance on the DRC gained momentum, with new projects and funding infusions announced in Canada and the US.
On the demand side, the rise of lower-cobalt battery chemistries weighed on consumption. Lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries continued gaining market share globally, pressuring cobalt’s role in the electric vehicle (EV) sector.
However, cobalt’s use in high-performance batteries for smartphones and other electronics remained resilient, offering a counterbalance to declines elsewhere. Geopolitics and policy added another layer of complexity, with China expanding its influence in African mining regions and western nations pursuing stricter supply chain transparency laws.
These dynamics are expected to shape cobalt’s role in the critical metals market into 2025 and beyond, as stakeholders grapple with the metal’s evolving importance in a decarbonized economy.
2024 cobalt supply and demand trends
Residual oversupply from 2023 prevented any price positivity in the cobalt market through 2024.
According to the US Geological Survey's annual cobalt report, mine supply of the battery metal ballooned in 2023, growing 16.75 percent year-on-year, from 197,000 MT in 2022 to 230,000 MT in 2023.
Over the last three years, annual mine supply has soared, from 142,000 MT to 230,000 MT, up 61 percent.
For 2023, 170,000 MT were mined in the DRC; the African nation is home to the five largest cobalt mines in the world. These high-grade areas have attracted the attention of Chinese mining companies, particularly China Molybdenum (SHA:603993,OTC Pink:CMCLF), which is one of the largest cobalt producers in the DRC and the world.
In recent years, cobalt-mining practices in the DRC have come under fire from international rights groups concerned that artisanal and small-scale cobalt-mining operations are using child labor.
In October 2024, the US Department of International Labor concluded a six year program entitled Combating Child Labor in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s Cobalt Industry (COTECCO).
Its key achievements include supporting the creation of an inter-ministerial commission to monitor child labor, and setting up a provincial commission in Lualaba. Since its inception in 2018, the project has trained 458 stakeholders from the government, civil society and the private sector on fighting child labor. It has introduced tools like the Bureau of International Labor Affairs' Comply Chain to 28 mining entities in Lualaba and Haut-Katanga.
Additionally, COTECCO has collaborated with the DRC government to establish a Child Labor Monitoring and Remediation System (CLRMS), training 110 officials to operate it. By March 2024, the CLRMS database had registered 5,346 children, and was officially handed over to the mines ministry for sustained management.
Cobalt fundamentals tightly tied to EV sector
Combating child exploitation in the cobalt supply chain will be paramount moving forward, as demand from the EV sector alone is expected to increase substantially, rising by 60 to 70 percent by 2040.
The DRC is projected to play a vital role in supplying the 214,000 MT of cobalt demand expected by 2030.
“It’s hard to understate just how much demand will be added to the cobalt market by the EV industry,” said Roman Aubry, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence pricing analyst, in an April email.
“Already it has become the largest demand sector, and its dominance is only set to grow.”
In 2024, global EV sales reached a third consecutive record high, with China leading the surge. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported a 5.3 percent increase in passenger vehicle sales, totaling 23.1 million units, with EVs and hybrids accounting for 47.2 percent of the market — a 40.7 percent rise from the previous year.
Elon Musk's Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), a dominant player in the EV sector, experienced a 1.1 percent decline in worldwide sales, delivering 1.79 million vehicles compared to 1.81 million in 2023.
This downturn was attributed to increased competition and market saturation.
However, other automakers reported significant growth. General Motors (NYSE:GM), for instance, achieved a 50 percent increase in its Q4 EV sales, driven by models like the Chevrolet Equinox EV SUV.
Analysts suggest that while Tesla's sales dip impacted overall market perceptions, the broader EV market remained robust, with traditional manufacturers gaining traction.
Another notable development in the EV sector in 2024 was the April announcement from Honda (NYSE:HMC) that it will invest C$15 billion to build a comprehensive EV value chain in Ontario, Canada.
The plans include an EV assembly plant and a standalone battery manufacturing facility. Joint ventures will add a cathode active material processing plant and a separator plant. The assembly plant aims to produce 240,000 vehicles annually, while the battery facility will have a capacity of 36 gigawatt hours.
Government funding supporting cobalt market growth
Due to its critical mineral designation, the cobalt sector has been the recipient of government funding.
In May, the US and Canada partnered for a co-investment to enhance the North American critical minerals supply chain. The collaboration will benefit Fortune Minerals (TSX:FT,OTCQB:FTMDF) and Lomiko Metals (TSXV:LMR,OTCQB:LMRMF), with the latter set to receive up to C$7.5 million from the Canadian government, matched by an additional US$6.4 million from the US Department of Defense’s Defense Production Act Investments Office.
The funding is part of the Canada-US Energy Transformation Task Force.
“Canada is positioning itself as a global leader in the supply of responsibly sourced critical minerals for the green and digital economy,” said Jonathan Wilkinson, Canada's minister of energy and natural resources.
“Through our work with the United States and other allies, we are developing secure critical minerals value chains that will power a prosperous and sustainable future," he added.
In August, Electra Battery Materials (TSXV:ELBM,NASDAQ:ELBM) secured a US$20 million grant from the US Department of Defense to aid in the construction and commissioning of “North America’s only cobalt sulfate refinery."
“Electra is committed to strengthening the resiliency of the North American battery supply chain,” said Electra CEO Trent Mell about the Ontario-based refinery. “We are grateful to the US Department of Defense for its support. On issues of national security, there are no borders between Canada and the United States. We are proud to partner with the US Government to build a strong North American supply chain for critical minerals.”
Cobalt catalysts to watch in 2025
Despite positive catalysts on the horizon, the cobalt market is facing immense pressure from substitution.
The shift toward LFP batteries, which omit cobalt, has drastically reduced demand in EV battery production.
By the third quarter of 2024, LFP batteries dominated 75.2 percent of the market, while nickel-manganese-cobalt batteries fell to 24.6 percent, according to data from S&P Global.
The declining role of cobalt in EV batteries was further highlighted in correspondence between China's CMOC (OTC Pink:CMCLF,SHA:603993), the world’s largest cobalt-mining company, and Bloomberg in late 2024.
“We predict that EV batteries will never return to the era that relies on cobalt,” said Zhou Xing, a spokesperson for CMOC. “Cobalt is far less important than imagined.”
However, even though cobalt's future in EVs looks clouded, demand persists in the consumer electronics segment, which relies on lithium-cobalt-oxide batteries, and in superalloys for aerospace and military applications.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Fortune Minerals is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Cobalt Market Forecast: Top Trends for Cobalt in 2025
Oversupply and shifting battery chemistries are set to define the cobalt market in 2025. Prices — subdued by excess supply since 2023 — are expected to remain stable, with limited volatility.
The rise of lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries, particularly in China, continues to suppress demand for cobalt chemicals, challenging sulfate refiners. Meanwhile, on the supply side, Indonesia's rapid expansion in mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) production offers an alternative to the contentious Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Even so, the DRC is expected to remain the primary producer of cobalt in the near to medium term.
“Oversupply has been the dominant driving force for cobalt prices since 2023, and this is likely to persist in 2025,” Roman Aubry, price analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, said. “As this single factor is so overwhelming, it has stifled much of the volatility in the market in 2024, and it is likely this will be the case in 2025 as well.”
Cobalt demand projected to rise long term
Critical minerals have become a key focus as nations look to fortify domestic supply chains. The cobalt sector’s production concentration in the DRC makes it even more prone to geopolitical upheaval.
According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2024 Global Critical Minerals Outlook, the cobalt market has a heightened geopolitical risk rating because 84 percent of production is focused in a single country.
Despite the current cobalt glut, the IEA is projecting that demand will soar from 213,000 metric tons in 2023, rising to 344,000 metric tons in 2030 and then to 454,000 metric tons in 2040.
This steep uptick has prompted the IEA to project a potential 16 percent shortfall by 2035.
Although countries like Indonesia and Australia are starting to see cobalt sector growth, experts agree that the DRC will continue to be the dominant player in the industry into the future.
“The DRC is going to maintain its position for the foreseeable future; however, Indonesian MHP is rapidly growing as an alternative source of cobalt in the market. In line with this, we’ve seen an influx of cobalt metal from Indonesia becoming more prevalent in recent months, being aggressively marketed by Indonesian producers,” said Aubry.
Those circumstances mean Indonesia could capture a larger piece of market share this year.
“With CMOC (OTC Pink:CMCLF,SHA:603993) not planning any new expansions this year, it is unlikely we'll see any significant growth from the DRC in cobalt production in 2025,” he added.
Refinement capacity will also play an important role in meeting growing cobalt demand.
Australia’s Cobalt Blue Holdings (ASX:COB,OTC Pink:CBBHF) is advancing plans for the Kwinana cobalt refinery near Perth, proposing an initial production capacity of 3,000 metric tons of cobalt sulfate and 500 metric tons of nickel metal annually. Construction is slated to commence in H1 2025, with completion expected within 12 months.
Changing battery chemistries threaten cobalt demand
In 2024, record-breaking global electric vehicle (EV) sales helped solidify cobalt's role in the energy transition. China is spearheading a 40.7 percent surge in EV and hybrid adoption, supported by aggressive pricing and subsidies.
China remained the largest growth market as domestic automakers outpaced foreign rivals. European sales rebounded from setbacks early in the year, with stricter emissions penalties set to drive further adoption in 2025.
Despite US market uncertainties, growing EV demand globally will sustain cobalt's importance, although supply chain challenges and alternative battery technologies may influence its trajectory.
“As LFP becomes increasingly dominant in China, sentiment for cobalt chemicals used in batteries has turned more bearish,” Aubry said. “A downturn in demand may put sulfate refiners under additional pressure, particularly at a time where the current market dynamics already present significant challenges due to prices.”
Rising copper, nickel production boosts cobalt glut
Another factor that could lead to additional cobalt surpluses is the production correlation with copper and nickel.
A November 2024 Fastmarkets report notes that 76 percent of global cobalt supply comes from copper-cobalt mines in the DRC. This by-product status exposes cobalt to market dynamics in the copper space.
In 2024, copper production in the region was on the rise, which in turn weighed on the cobalt market.
“But with cobalt demand remaining decidedly sluggish, copper’s upward trajectory will continue to fuel cobalt oversupply and, combined with the fact that copper production is poised to expand further, this will keep cobalt prices under pressure,” the Fastmarkets report reads.
A similar picture is playing out in Indonesia, where cobalt is mined as a by-product of nickel.
Indonesia’s rise as a cobalt powerhouse is poised to reshape the market, fueled by its booming MHP production. In 2024, the country supplied 10 percent of global cobalt, up from 7 percent in 2023, driven by Chinese-backed investments in nickel laterite ore projects using high-pressure acid leach technology.
Despite weak nickel prices, these projects are ensuring long-term cobalt output growth, with MHP-derived cobalt production projected to rise by a sizeable 17 percent in 2025.
Producers are increasingly favoring cobalt metal over sulfate due to higher profitability and easier storage.
Additionally, cobalt from Indonesia may be immune to US tariffs — that's in contrast to Chinese cobalt, which faces a 25 percent import tariff, as per Fastmarkets. “That possibility could raise concerns about shifting global supply dynamics and increase the pressure on cobalt prices," the firm explains.
Due to these factors, Fastmarkets is expecting a continued surplus of 21,000 metric tons in 2025, a slight decrease from 2024’s glut of 25,000 metric tons. Increased copper and nickel production is driving this trend, but challenges loom.
Weak nickel pricing, driven by Indonesia’s rapid growth, is squeezing producers in higher-cost regions like Australia and Canada, threatening project viability. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions, trade barriers and a strong US dollar could further disrupt cobalt flows, especially from Chinese-backed Indonesian operations. The market’s trajectory will depend heavily on economic conditions, trade dynamics and evolving technologies, the report concludes.
Ethical supply concerns continue
As the global mining sector faces increased scrutiny for its extraction practices, the DRC’s cobalt industry has proven to be a focal point for sustainability and social governance concerns.
Child labor at artisanal and small-scale cobalt mines in the country has drawn international attention, prompting the US Department of International Labor to establish a program to fight cobalt-related child labor in the DRC.
Since its inception in 2018, the project has trained 458 stakeholders from the government, civil society and the private sector on fighting child labor. Its other accomplishments include introducing tools like the Bureau of International Labor Affairs' Comply Chain to 28 mining entities in Lualaba and Haut-Katanga.
While these are moves in the right direction, the long-running negative attention that the DRC’s cobalt sector has faced could be a deterrent to new capital entering the country.
“Alternatives to the DRC are likely to become more attractive to investors if it can sidestep other potential pitfalls, such as high refining energy costs. Until a more sustainable supply chain is embedded, or there are more substantial regulations implemented to limit the prevalence of artisanal mining, prices are unlikely to see a premium for sustainably sourced cobalt in the immediate term,” Aubry told the Investing News Network.
Trump’s tough tariff talk
Although Indonesian supply may be exempt from current US trade rules, that could change in the near term.
The re-election of US President Donald Trump has introduced significant uncertainty into the cobalt market, particularly concerning the future of electric vehicle (EV) policies and potential trade measures.
Industry participants have expressed concerns that Trump may reverse existing EV legislation, notably the Inflation Reduction Act, which has been instrumental in channeling approximately US$312 billion into US EV production and infrastructure. The American president has previously indicated intentions to "end the electric vehicle mandate on day one" in a bid to "save the auto industry from complete obliteration."
Despite these statements, the proliferation of EV manufacturing facilities in predominantly Republican states suggests that any policy reversals could face resistance due to the economic benefits they bring to local communities.
Stricter tariffs on Chinese-origin cobalt and EVs is also a concern among market watchers.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Fortune Minerals and Mawson Finland are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Top 3 Canadian Cobalt Stocks in 2024
The first months of 2024 saw cobalt take a bearish stance, constrained by excess supply and eroding demand.
Cobalt prices faced many headwinds at the beginning of the year, and they pulled the value of the battery metal down by 2.01 percent between January and the end of March. After starting the calendar year at US$29,134 per metric ton (MT), cobalt metal prices had fallen to US$28,548 by the end of the three month session.
The sluggish market conditions were attributed to reduced demand from the battery sector and oversupply of material. As a result, prices remained under pressure, with limited signs of improvement expected in the near term.
“Electric vehicle and electronic batteries still comprise a large portion of cobalt demand, although the power battery production landscape in China encountered challenges in the past year,” a January report from S&P Global Commodity Insights states. “A notable decline in growth rates, particularly in the production of batteries with a nickel-manganese-cobalt chemistry, has led market sources to hold a cautiously optimistic outlook for Q1.”
Concerns over the economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have also added to the market uncertainty.
The first 30 days of Q2 haven’t offered relief to the cobalt market, with prices falling below US$28,000 in mid-April.
These tough market conditions were reflected in the performance of the sector’s exploration and mining companies. However, despite the challenges, three companies have been able to make gains in the current market.
Below is a look at the three top cobalt stocks on the TSX and TSXV by share price performance so far this year. All year-to-date and share price information was obtained on May 1, 2024, using TradingView’s stock screener, and all companies listed had market caps above C$10 million at that time. Read on to learn more about their activities.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 15.38 percent; market cap: C$32.94 million; current share price: C$0.60
Canada-based exploration and development company Electra states it is actively involved in processing low-carbon, ethically sourced battery materials. The company is working to develop North America's sole cobalt sulfate refinery while operating a black mass recycling demonstration plant. Black mass is obtained from end-of-life lithium-ion batteries.
Electra is also progressing exploration efforts at its Iron Creek cobalt and copper project in the Idaho Cobalt Belt, and expanding its cobalt sulfate processing capabilities in Bécancour, Québec.
In early February, Electra released an update on its black mass demonstration plant near Toronto. The overview notes that recent optimizations have enhanced the recovery of lithium, nickel, cobalt and other essential minerals, improving the quality of saleable end products. Further optimization studies will include metal recovery from internal recycling streams, and Electra said preliminary lab results suggest positive prospects for isolating cobalt from nickel in the leach liquor.
On February 9, the company received a C$5 million investment from the Canadian government for the construction of its cobalt sulfate refinery. The refinery, which will be situated in Temiskaming Shores, Ontario, aims to supply roughly 5 percent of the world's battery-grade cobalt essential for electric vehicles. The C$5 million grant is being dispersed through the Federal Economic Development Initiative for Northern Ontario.
“Canada has surpassed China as the top jurisdiction in the global battery supply chain, given its strength in raw materials mining and processing,” Trent Mell, Electra’s CEO, said. “Today’s investment from the Government of Canada means that Northern Ontario will seize the economic opportunities created by Canada’s transition to a green economy.”
Shares of Electra reached a year-to-date high of C$0.97 on February 15.
Press ReleasesCompany Profile
Year-to-date gain: 6.67 percent; market cap: C$87.67 million; current share price: C$0.32
FPX Nickel is currently advancing its Decar nickel district in BC, Canada. The property comprises four key targets, with the Baptiste deposit being the primary focus, alongside the Van target.
FPX Nickel also has three other nickel projects in BC and one in the Yukon, Canada. While nickel extraction is its main focus, the company plans to produce cobalt as a by-product from future mining operations at the Baptiste site.
In mid-January, FPX secured a C$14.4 million strategic equity investment from Sumitomo Metal Mining Canada, a subsidiary of Japanese nickel miner Sumitomo Metal Mining (TSE:5713).
Martin Turenne, president and CEO of FPX, noted that Sumitomo's investment is a substantial validation of Baptiste, highlighting Sumitomo Metal Mining's expertise in nickel production and supply chain diversification.
Shortly after the Sumitomo news, FPX announced the “company’s three strategic investors have fully exercised their participation rights to re-establish their respective initial ownership interest in FPX’s issued and outstanding common shares.” The exercise resulted in the completion of an additional private placement, where a total of 8,981,971 common shares were issued to the strategic investors at C$0.48 each, generating C$4,311,346 in proceeds.
With approximately C$45 million on hand, including the proceeds, FPX expects to be fully funded for its 2024 and 2025 activities. Shares of FPX spiked following the news and reached a year-to-date high of C$0.40 on February 5.
Investor Kit
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 5 percent; market cap: C$123.16 million; current share price: C$0.31
Sherritt International is a leading global player in hydrometallurgical processes for nickel and cobalt extraction. At its Moa joint venture, located in Cuba, Sherritt is pursuing a 25 year expansion program to boost annual mixed sulfide precipitate output by 20 percent, equating to 6,500 MT of nickel and cobalt.
On January 15, Sherritt announced it was implementing organization-wide cost-cutting measures to enhance operations in response to market conditions. Part of these efforts included a corporate restructuring and a 10 percent reduction in Canadian staff. In February, the company released its 2023 results and 2024 guidance. In the report, Sherritt notes that total cobalt production on a 100 percent basis was 2,876 MT, “slightly below their annual guidance ranges.”
For 2024, the company is anticipating an uptick in nickel and cobalt production “due to increased feed of mixed sulphides from the Moa mine site to the refinery as a result of access to additional ore sources.”
Sherritt shares marked a year-to-date high on April 10 of C$0.36.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: FPX Nickel is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
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