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Queensland Pacific Metals Ltd (ASX:QPM) (“QPM” or “the Company”) is pleased to present a summary of activities from the March 2022 quarter
Highlights
- Conditional finance support received from Korea Trade Insurance Corporation (“K-SURE”) for the provision of debt funding for the TECH Project, reinforcing QPM’s ties with Korea.
- Baseload ore supply contract executed with Société Le Nickel (“SLN”) and approved by New Caledonian government.
- Continuing to advance through the Definitive Feasibility Study (“DFS”), with extensive testwork being undertaken during the quarter with key vendors to ensure commercial equipment is fit for purpose and optimised.
- First High Purity Alumina (“HPA”) made from New Caledonia ore in testwork with Lava Blue.
- Regulatory approvals required to construct the TECH Project are progressing on schedule
- Residue testwork and discussions with Queensland State Government regarding use as engineered landfill have been positive – pathway to zero solids waste and reinforcement of QPM’s ESG credentials
K-SURE Funding
Ever since the investment and binding offtake agreement signed with LG Energy Solution and POSCO, QPM has targeted Korean export credit agencies as potential financiers of the project. QPM commenced discussions with K-SURE in 2021, culminating in the provision of a formal Expression of Interest letter from K-SURE to QPM.
The Expression of Interest from K-SURE is a significant milestone in their internal consideration for the provision of debt funding. K-SURE has indicated that its participation in the debt syndicate will be in line with the terms and conditions of Export Finance Australia (“EFA”), which has previously provided a letter outlining $250m of conditional financing support. The letter received from K-SURE does not constitute a commitment or an offer and any provision of debt funding will be subject to due diligence and typical terms and conditions.
The Korean and Australian governments have recently focused on formal cooperation regarding critical minerals. In December 2021, the Australian and Korean governments entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (“MOU”) regarding cooperation in Critical Minerals Supply Chains. Following this, both countries’ Export Credit Agencies (K-SURE and EFA) entered into an MOU to strengthen their capacity to work together and undertake joint financings.
QPM’s strong ties to Korea have positioned it well to access financing from both Australian and Korean export credit agencies and strong progress has been made. As the project progresses towards financial close, QPM is confident that these strong Korean-Australian ties will assist in obtaining credit approval for debt funding from these parties
Ore Supply
QPM and SLN have been in discussions and negotiating terms for ore supply since the execution of an MOU in April 2021. In parallel, SLN had been working with the New Caledonia government to obtain the requisite approvals it required to export ore to QPM.
In February 2022, a press conference was held by the President of New Caledonia, Louis Mapou, and SLN. At the press conference, it was announced that the Government of New Caledonia had approved an increase in the annual nickel ore export quota of SLN. This increase includes the supply of up to 1,000,000 wet metric tonnes (“wmt”) of nickel ore per annum to QPM. The approval is valid through to 2029, in line with SLN’s existing export approvals that are currently in place.
Shortly after receiving government approval, QPM and SLN executed a binding contract for up to 1,000,000 wmt of nickel ore per annum. The key terms of the agreement are set out in the table below:
The execution of this contract is a major de-risking milestone for QPM with regards to its ore supply and demonstrates the support of the project from New Caledonia and SLN.
QPM is in active discussions with other ore suppliers for the balance of its ore required at full production.
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This article includes content fromQueensland Pacific Metals Ltd , licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
QPM:AU
Gold Prospectivity Enhanced at Black Swan and Lake Johnston
- Geological setting at Black Swan confirmed to be favourable for gold
- Gold bearing structures identified throughout the geological sequence
- Geological setting shown to be very similar to nearby gold mines including Kanowna Belle and Gordon Sirdar
- 52 gold nuggets found so far from the interpreted gold bearing structures
- Low-cost soil sampling program to be completed this month to better define the emerging gold trends. Anomalies identified will be followed up with drilling
- Felsic intrusive copper-gold system indicated at Lake Johnston
- LJPD0032 intersection of 2.26g/t Au and 2.36% Cu confirmed as a mineralised felsic intrusive
- Association of a broad, open ended, Cu-Au soil anomaly at Billy Ray and the likely link to the mineralised Cu-Au drill intersection beneath supports the prospectivity for a larger Cu-Au system
- The Billy Ray Cu-Au soil anomaly is open and strikes into the newly acquired Mantis tenement, presenting a high priority opportunity to undertake a systematic, multi-element soil sampling program for the first time
- Windarra along trend of known gold mineralisation
- Windarra is interpreted to contain strike extensions to the main mineralised gold trend which controls nearby gold camps – Lancefield and Beasley Creek
- Promising gold in soil anomalies within the tenements and over this prospective corridor will also be followed up with modern day soil programs
CEO, Brendan Shalders, commented, “Recent exploration activities have further enhanced the gold prospectivity at Black Swan and Lake Johnston.
Black Swan is located within the Boorara Geological Domain which hosts a number of gold mines including the nearby Kanowna Belle, Mungarra and Gordon Sirdar projects. The 52 gold nuggets recovered to date enhances the prospectivity of the interpreted gold structures that intersect with the geological sequences at Black Swan.
The team plans to complete a soil sampling program at Black Swan this month to further test the gold prospectivity at the project.
At Lake Johnston, further assessment of the open-ended broad Billy Ray gold in soil anomaly has also confirmed coincident copper anomalism. When considering the likely link to the previously reported LJPD0032 drill intersection grading 2.26g/t Au and 2.36% Cu in a mineralised felsic intrusive, support is building for a larger Cu-Au system in the area. Planned soil sampling across the Mantis tenement will include other important pathfinder elements useful in targeting intrusive related gold systems (Bi-Sb-Tb- As-Te-Ag), which were not assayed historically.
When considering the historical nickel focus at all of our projects, there has been very little sustained exploration for other commodities despite all three projects being located in the heart of the Eastern Goldfields region of Western Australia.
The recently reported gold anomalies at Windarra, the increased gold prospectivity at Black Swan and the growing Cu-Au potential at Lake Johnston all offer exciting opportunities to carry out low-cost, high reward exploration programs whilst maintaining our nickel resources and infrastructure options.
The pleasing progress reported today and planned programs remain consistent with our strategy to assess the greenfields potential for multiple commodities across all three of Poseidon’s projects.”
Black Swan Geology Setting Favourable for Gold Mineralisation
The Black Swan project is situated west of the Mt Monger Fault amongst a series of interpreted secondary structures emanating from the primary fault which are commonly associated with gold mineralisation. The secondary structures are similar to those controlling the Golden Valley and Kanowna Sequence which hosts a number of large gold deposits including Kanowna Belle and Gordon Sirdar (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: Black Swan Regional Geology Map & Tenement Locations
Komatiitic nickel deposits such as Black Swan occur as channel like features that are interpreted to be following very early-stage crustal scale structures that remain active throughout the Earth’s geological history. These long-lived structures may become reactivated during the gold mineralising events meaning that separate nickel and gold mineralisation events can share common structural associations (i.e. Beta Hunt).
Following on from the recently reported gold nuggets discovered at Black Swan, metal detecting programs have so far recovered a total of 52 gold nuggets with a combined weight of 17.9 grams.
The nuggets are small in size (typically <0.6 grams in weight) and angular, indicating limited mobility and in-situ formation from a likely nearby source. The nuggets have been found clustered in a single area with the remainder of the tenements not yet tested.
A recent field trip noted the gold nuggets are mapped within hangingwall felsic volcanics with areas of quartz veining and breccias, and ferruginous lag which could be a source for gold mineralisation.
Click here for the full ASX Release
This article includes content from Poseidon Nickel Limited, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
Nickel Price Update: Q2 2024 in Review
After reaching that high point, nickel couldn't find support and fell rapidly to close the second quarter at US$17,291. Since then, the price of nickel has continued to decline, approaching yearly lows of US$16,090 on July 30.
Russian nickel faces western sanctions
During Q1, nickel prices were negatively affected as Indonesian producers continued to flood the market; however, the base metal began seeing positive momentum as the country experienced delays in approving mining output quotas, and amid speculation that Russian nickel could be sanctioned by the US and UK.
Ultimately, nickel wasn't sanctioned by those countries at the time, and as mining quotas began to work their way through Indonesian red tape, nickel prices once again experienced declines.
However, momentum began to shift again for nickel at the start of Q2. On April 12, news broke that Washington and London had banned US and UK metal exchanges from admitting new aluminum, copper and nickel from Russia. Taking immediate effect, the prohibitions also halted the import of those metals.
In July, the London Metal Exchange extended trading sanctions to Russian miner Norlisk Nickel’s Finnish operations for the trading of briquettes and cathodes; these restrictions are set to come into effect in October.
Joe Mazumdar, editor of Exploration Insights, suggested this move will have little impact on the sector.
“That nickel is still going to make it into the market, it’s just going to go to a different exchange, probably Shanghai … So I could still see that nickel moving and getting consumed in the global market — it’s just not coming to the west,” he explained to the Investing News Network in an interview.
Nickel continued to climb through April and May as a combination of factors drove metals prices more broadly. Dovish statements from the US Federal Reserve helped provide momentum, as did cooling inflation data.
Ultimately nickel prices fell back, with London Metal Exchange stockpiles of the metal increasing through the second quarter, rising from 77,604 MT on April 1 to 95,436 MT on June 28.
Western nickel producers cut output amid low prices
The overhang in the nickel market caused producers to begin curtailing their production in the early part of the year. This trend continued into the second quarter as more producers started to slow output or shut mines altogether.
Among the hardest-hit regions in the latest round of closures has been Australia, where low prices and high operating costs forced First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FM,OTC Pink:FQVLF) to place its Ravensthorpe operations on care and maintenance at the end of April. The mine had been operating at lower capacity through the start of the year as it worked through aboveground stockpiles and used a lower-cost atmospheric leach circuit to process ore.
BHP (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP), which had been considering cuts earlier in the year, announced on July 11 that it would be suspending operations at its Nickel West operations and West Musgrave project.
In its announcement, it cites oversupply in the global nickel market and indicates consensus that nickel prices will be lower over the next half-decade due to growth in alternative, low-cost supply. BHP said it would begin transitioning its operations starting immediately, with the full suspension being completed between October and December of this year. The company notes that the closure is temporary and said it will review its decision in February 2027.
Mazumdar explained that Indonesia has a competitive advantage, but as more operations begin to cut production it will start to eat into the market surplus, which will be a positive for the nickel market.
“They can’t compete on a cost basis with Indonesia, nobody can. So Indonesia continues to oversupply the market, and now there’s an overhang. What happens is once you get these production cuts, there’s less supply in the market and then that overhang will recede. That’s the best thing that can happen to the nickel market,” he said.
Can government incentives boost western nickel output?
Amid these challenges, the US has set up a number of programs, including tax credits through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), to bolster domestic and allied production of nickel and other critical minerals.
The IRA was announced in 2022, but more recently, the Biden administration authorized the US Department of Energy’s Clean Energy Financing Program, which establishes a US$72 billion fund that will be used to provide guaranteed loans to “projects that increase the domestically produced supply of critical minerals.”
Mazumdar doesn’t think incentives like this will be enough to get new projects into the nickel space.
“The west can offer cheap loans to get people to build it, but they’re not going to make any money to pay back the loan no matter how cheap it is unless they give them a grant,” he said.
He explained that to get these projects off the ground, the nickel price would need to go higher to incentivize development, or governments would need to provide a guaranteed price to buy the nickel and build their own stockpiles.
Back-and-forth pressures between government initiatives and Chinese dominance have created a bifurcated market and left Indonesia with few options to diversify its exports, even as it negotiates a trade partnership with the US.
This has led to attempts from Indonesia to restructure investment deals with Chinese firms that would allow Indonesian nickel products to qualify for incentives under the IRA.
What factors are driving nickel demand?
Despite the nickel market's oversupply, there is still high demand, much of it from China.
China is the largest consumer of nickel in the world, accounting for around 65 percent of total consumption, with the bulk of it destined for steel products. However, as China’s real estate market has stalled out, so too has demand for steel products, with consumption slumping 3.3 percent during the first half of the year.
Total 2024 consumption is projected to fall to around 900 million MT, down from 933.4 million MT in 2023.
Despite the decline, nickel demand has been bolstered by increasing sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in recent years. Even though reports indicated that demand for BEVs had waned at the start of 2024, growth in the segment has remained resilient, with BEVs' global share of the light vehicle market expected to reach 19.2 percent in 2024.
In China, the uptake has also been enormous, with sales from Chinese BEV producer BYD (OTC Pink:BYDDF,SZSE:002594) projected to exceed those of North American rival Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) in 2024.
Additionally, demand for hybrid vehicles is expected to exceed demand for traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) cars. While batteries for hybrids aren’t as large, they still use more nickel than ICE vehicles.
The amount of nickel used in batteries has been increasing in recent years as consumers demand greater range. BEVs use 25.3 kilograms of nickel on average, while hybrids use an average of 6.5 kilograms.
What will happen to the nickel price in 2024?
While production cuts should bring the market more into balance, the nickel price is likely to be determined by supply coming from Indonesia and demand from Chinese steel and battery production.
Even though governments have created initiatives to stimulate western production, they’re not likely to have much ability to increase mining operations as long as nickel prices remain depressed.
As pricing for nickel bottoms out, there may be opportunities for investors who are willing to be patient; however, it could be some time before prices rebound sufficiently for miners to begin restarting their operations.
Long-term predictions show nickel in the US$17,000 range for 2024, slowly improving to US$23,000 level in 2028.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
