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World Resource Outlook 2025
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A Sneak Peek At What The Insiders Are Saying
“When gold turns, it can turn very, very dramatically, this time in particular because so many people are underinvested in gold and gold stocks."
— Adrian Day, Adrian Day Asset Management
"On a broad brush perspective, I wouldn't want to be in stocks, I wouldn't want to be in bonds, I wouldn't want to be in real estate. I wouldn't want to be in crypto. So where do we go? Precious metals."
— David Morgan, the Morgan Report
"We don't need any more (uranium) catalysts. We've got a 30 million to 50 million pound supply deficit in the market probably for the next five years. That's what we're looking at. And that's what's going to move the price."
— Justin Huhn, Uranium Insider
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World Resource Outlook 2025
Table of Contents
Gold Price Forecast: Top Trends for Gold in 2025
Silver Price Forecast: Top Trends for Silver in 2025
Platinum Price Forecast: Top Trends for Platinum in 2025
Palladium Price Forecast: Top Trends for Palladium in 2025
Copper Price Forecast: Top Trends for Copper in 2025
Nickel Price Forecast: Top for Nickel in 2025
Zinc Price Forecast: Top Trends for Zinc in 2025
Iron Price Forecast: Top Trends for Iron in 2025
Lead Price Forecast: Top Trends for Lead in 2025
Lithium Market Forecast: Top Trends for Lithium in 2025
Cobalt Market Forecast: Top Trends for Cobalt in 2025
Graphite Market Forecast: Top Trends for Graphite in 2025
Vanadium Market Forecast: Top Trends for Vanadium in 2025
Manganese Market Forecast: Top Trends for Manganese in 2025
Uranium Price Forecast: Top Trends for Uranium in 2025
Oil and Gas Price Forecast: Top Trends for Oil and Gas in 2025
Rare Earths Market Forecast: Top Trends for Rare Earths in 2025
Agriculture Market Forecast: Top Trends for Potash and Phosphate in 2025
Gold Price Forecast: Top Trends for Gold in 2025
The gold price saw incredible momentum in 2024, gaining almost 30 percent during the period.
As the start of 2025 approaches, the world is facing a great deal of uncertainty. Several regions are experiencing geopolitical instability, and a new US president could bring further chaos to an already fragile global economy.
What does this mean for gold, and what should investors expect in the new year?
How will Trump affect the gold price in 2025?
A key question for investors is how Donald Trump's second term will affect gold.
Trump’s campaign promises included lower taxes, the introduction of broad tariffs on foreign goods and sweeping immigration reforms that would result in the deportation of millions of undocumented laborers.
Economists widely view his promises as inflationary. They come at a time when the US and global economies are still recovering from high inflation caused by COVID-19, and could cause a delay in lowering interest rates.
While gold is viewed as an inflation hedge, high interest rates imposed by central banks over the past three years have pushed investors toward interest-bearing assets like bonds; meanwhile, gold based-products have seen outflows.
The US Federal Reserve is expected to pause rate cuts in 2025, with analysts speculating that it’s taking a wait-and-see approach to the effects that Trump’s policies will have on the US economy.
In an email to the Investing News Network (INN), Lobo Tiggre, CEO of IndependentSpeculator.com, noted that investor sentiment still reflects uncertainty about what this means.
“People could get so optimistic about Trump’s 'pro-growth' agenda that investors start deploying more of the mountain of cash they’re sitting on ... but Elon and Vivek going to Washington with Milei’s chainsaw could scare markets,” he said.
David Barrett, CEO of EBC Financial Group UK, also expressed uncertainty to INN.
“Trump likes to keep the opposition, domestic or foreign, on edge. His unpredictability is his weapon of choice. Looking at some of his administration picks and the potential clash with the Federal Reserve, I suspect taking a hard view on sentiment for 2025 is not a wise game for now,” he said via email.
Barrett suggested that investors hold some money on the sidelines until they can determine how Trump’s presidency begins and whether his return lives up to his pre-election promises, especially regarding conflicts overseas.
Geopolitical pressures in play for gold
Trump’s return to the White House is just one of the geopolitical situations that could affect gold in 2025.
In 2024, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe influenced the price of gold, most notably when Russian President Vladimir Putin floated the possibility of a nuclear escalation in November.
Tiggre noted that flareups tend to drive gold, but the effects are usually temporary and revert back to trend.
“Fortunately, that trend is currently upward. I suppose that if Trump could actually end the war in Ukraine in a day, there might be a bit less safe-haven demand, but I don’t believe he can," he explained.
"So even if gold retreats after each successive scare, there’s no real downside for gold here."
However, Tiggre added that if one of the conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine or even Taiwan were to escalate into a direct military conflict between major world powers, it would likely send gold “screaming” upward.
Central banks still a key driver for gold
The last few years have been characterized by strong central bank buying of gold.
Asia, the Middle East and some Eastern European countries are leading the way. Although not all countries report their purchases, the ones that do are carefully tracked by the World Gold Council.
Although there appeared to be a slowdown in central bank buying in the middle of the year, Joe Cavatoni, senior market strategist, Americas, at the World Gold Council, said it rebounded strongly at the end of 2024.
"In October, we saw a rebound in central bank buying, with 60 metric tons of net purchases; this was the highest monthly amount reported year-to-date, at a time when the gold price was still making gains,” he said.
Looking forward to 2025, Cavatoni said he expects central banks to still be a major driver for the price of gold even though the metal is priced near all-time highs. “This continued interest reaffirms gold’s role as a strategic asset that goes beyond the price to manage risks and diversify reserves,” he said.
In comments to INN, Julia Kandoshko, CEO of European brokerage firm Mind Money, echoed a similar sentiment.
“The growing share of India and the Middle East in global GDP has an additional impact on the demand for gold, especially given the increasing use of gold as a reserve in these areas,” she said.
The scale of central bank purchases has provided gold with a critical support structure, and has also fueled speculation that the precious metal may be used to back an alternative reserve currency to the US dollar.
Barrett suggested this trend has been ongoing for the past 15 years.
He said central banks have been net buyers of gold since 2010 at about 7,000 metric tons. As the ultimate buy-and-hold participant, their activity has not only removed significant supply from the market, but has also contributed to current market conditions, which have made gold attractive to a wide audience.
Gold M&A activity lagging despite price strength
Tiggre expressed surprise at the lack of deals in the gold space given current high prices.
“The larger players simply have not made enough discoveries. If they don’t want to mine themselves out of existence, they’re going to have to buy more of the companies that have done the work,” he said.
Kandoshko echoed this sentiment, saying mergers are a means for larger companies to access exploration projects, expand reserves and optimize costs. She believes 2024's higher prices could pave the way for deals in 2025.
Barrett believes mergers haven’t happened for a myriad of reasons, chiefly that the price of gold hasn’t reached the level to overcome the economic factors that have driven industry costs over the last several years.
“I suspect the main reason is the massive rise in production costs and higher interest rates … labor, energy and raw materials have all risen significantly,” he said. The implication is that higher returns have yet to be realized — gold miners still haven't overcome higher operating costs due to today's economic situation.
Investor takeaway
Central banks are expected to continue supporting the gold price in 2025; however, with Trump entering office, his policies could pull gold in different directions. It may be hard for investors to know what to do.
Cavatoni suggested that a strong US economy and lower deficit under Trump would push the dollar higher, leading to investors seeking to add riskier assets to their portfolios. “If this is what develops as a reaction to Trump’s mandate, it would be supportive to gold allocations as a safe haven,” he said.
For her part, Khandoshko sees gold maintaining its upward momentum, saying she sees the metal increasing to US$2,800 in the next six months and rising to US$3,000 at some point during the new year.
Although reluctant to make a prediction, Tiggre also believes gold will trend higher in 2025.
“How much higher? It is hard to say, but a real all-time-high of just under US$3,500 is less than 35 percent higher than where we are today. That seems doable,” he said.
If gold continues moving up, it could give gold companies the boost they need and could create new opportunities for investors who have been taking a wait-and-see approach.
Maybe more than ever, 2025 is bringing political and economic uncertainty that could see strategies compete between pursuing riskier equities or adding more exposure to gold through bullion or gold-backed products.
The smart play may be to not jump into 2025 headfirst and instead take some time to see how key situations develop through the first part of the year.
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Neptune Global is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
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Silver Price Forecast: Top Trends for Silver in 2025
The silver price reached highs not seen since 2012 this past year, supported by an ongoing deficit and increasing interest from investors as geopolitical concerns prompted safe-haven buying.
The white metal reached its highest point for the year in October, breaking through US$34 per ounce on the back of a shifting post-pandemic landscape and geopolitical tensions. However, Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election just a few weeks later buoyed bond yields and the US dollar while weighing on silver and gold.
What will 2025 hold for silver? As the new year approaches, investors are closely watching how Trump's policies and actions could impact the precious metal, along with supply and demand trends in the space.
Here's what experts see coming for silver in 2025.
How will Trump's presidency impact silver?
As Trump's inauguration approaches, speculation is rife about how he could affect the resource industry.
The president-elect ran on a policy of “drill, baby, drill," and while his focus was largely on oil and gas companies, mining sector participants have taken it as a positive sign for exploration and development.
Trump's promise to reduce permitting timelines for anyone making an investment of US$1 billion or more in the US has excited sector members, and could end up being a boon to silver companies in the country.
However, part of the help Trump has promised to mining companies comes from reneging on environmental commitments, including the Paris Agreement. This could end up weighing on silver.
Current President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act includes tax credits and deductions for solar projects, and there's some concern that the incoming administration and the new Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) could impose reversals or have the entire act gutted, hurting the solar market.
However, Peter Krauth, author of "The Great Silver Bull" and editor of the Silver Stock Investor, told the Investing News Network (INN) that Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Musk could end up keeping solar safe.
“Tesla bought SolarCity, which became Tesla Energy. They are an important provider of solar panels. Again, Musk’s new role heading DOGE and obvious close connection to Trump just might help mitigate risks to Tesla and its solar panel/power storage business. If that happens, in whatever form it may take, it could shelter solar panel production and sales in the US to a considerable degree,” Krauth explained via email.
He also noted that Trump's presidency isn't without risks and that much uncertainty still remains.
Mind Money CEO Julia Khandoshko also isn't worried about solar demand in the US.
“Rolling back ESG policies and returning to carbon-based technologies could slow the green energy transition in the US. However, Europe and China, the main drivers of the green transition, remain committed to clean energy, which increases silver demand. Thus, global trends will continue to support silver use in renewable energy technologies,” she told INN.
Silver deficit expected to continue
Industrial segments have been critical for silver demand in recent years.
As of November, the Silver Institute was forecasting total industrial demand of 702 million ounces of silver for 2024, an increase of 7 percent over the 655 million ounces recorded in 2023.
The institute attributes much of this increase to energy transition sectors, highlighting photovoltaics in particular.
However, these gains are coming alongside flat mine production, which is expected to grow only 1 percent to 837 million ounces during 2024. Once factored in, secondary supply from recycling pushes total supply of silver to 1.03 billion ounces for the year, a considerable gap from the 1.21 billion ounces of total demand.
Both Krauth and Khandoshko think the gap between silver supply and demand will continue.
Krauth suggested that companies have been dipping into aboveground inventories to narrow the gap, which has helped to keep the price of silver from exploding over the past year. "That supply is quickly drying up, so I expect to see renewed upward price pressure since silver miners are unable to grow output," he told INN.
Khandoshko expressed a similar sentiment, saying demand is likely to keep outpacing supply.
However, she also sees geopolitics and a global macroeconomic situation that could constrain both demand and supply growth in 2025. For example, economic difficulties in Europe and China could slow energy transition demand.
When it comes to supply, Khandoshko told INN that she sees a different scenario.
“The problem is that silver production is mainly concentrated in geopolitically challenging areas, such as Russia and Kazakhstan, where securing funding for supply expansion is quite difficult," she explained.
"These factors limit silver’s growth potential compared to gold, which in turn benefits from its role as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty."
Silver M&A set to heat up in 2025
As silver supply becomes increasingly stressed, experts are eyeing projects that are ramping up.
Krauth highlighted Aya Gold and Silver’s (TSX:AYA:OTCQX:AYASF) Zgounder mine expansion. Its first pour was at the end of November, and it is expected to ramp up to full annual output of 8 million ounces in 2025.
Endeavour Silver’s (TSX:EDR,NYSE:EXK) Terronera mine is also nearing completion. Once complete, the operation is expected to produce 15.5 million silver equivalent ounces per year.
For its part, Skeena Resources (TSX:SKE,NYSE:SKE) is working to develop its Eskay Creek project. It is set to come online in 2027, and is expected to bring 9.5 million ounces of silver per year to market in its first five years.
Krauth said a rising silver price is likely good news for mergers and acquisitions in 2025.
“Higher prices, since they translate into higher share prices, meaning acquirers can use their more valuable shares as a currency to acquire others … I think 2024 will bring deals between mid-tiers and between juniors," he said.
Krauth added, "The truth is that many mid-tier producers have not been spending on exploration. Something has to give, so I think we’ll see this space heat up."
Investor takeaway
Khandoshko and Krauth have similar silver outlooks for 2025, suggesting a possible pullback.
“Due to supply shortages and increasing demand in the coming months, silver is expected to reach US$35. After this, a slight pullback to US$30 would be possible,” Khandoshko said.
However, after that happens she projects another rise, with silver potentially passing US$50.
Krauth was looking for silver to reach US$35 in 2024, which happened in Q4. Looking forward to 2025, he thinks the white metal will revisit that level in the first quarter, with US$40 or more possible later in the year.
However, he suggested that investors should be cautious of wider economic trends affecting silver.
“There is a serious risk of significant correction in the broader markets and of a recession. A broad market selloff could bleed into silver stocks, even if only temporarily,” Krauth said.
In the case of a recession, a lack of industrial demand could create headwinds for silver. Still, Krauth thinks that could be tempered by government stimulus efforts for green energy and infrastructure.
Overall, 2025 could be a significant year for silver investors. However, geopolitical and economic instability may provide headwinds across the resource sector and could stymie silver's upward momentum.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Prismo Metals is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Platinum Price Forecast: Top Trends for Platinum in 2025
The platinum price fluctuated in 2024, trading between US$900 and US$1,100 per ounce.
Some of its gains were due to strong demand from the automotive sector, which reached a seven year high during the first quarter. Interest rate cut speculation in May also helped boost precious metals prices.
Platinum reached its year-to-date high of US$1,094 on May 17.
The price of the metal also benefited from a supply shortfall of more than 450,000 ounces for the year.
Platinum demand expected to stay flat
According to the most recent data from the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), overall platinum demand is expected to remain relatively flat in 2025, falling 1 percent to 7.86 million ounces.
The automotive sector will remain the largest price driver, but for how much longer remains to be seen.
Both platinum and palladium can be used in catalytic converters, which help eliminate toxic emissions from vehicle tailpipe gases. As their prices fluctuate, platinum and palladium tend to be swapped.
Currently, palladium is trading at a premium to platinum, and its price will likely need to be considerably lower before parts makers start retooling processes to swap between them.
Although light vehicle sales are expected to grow by 1.7 percent in 2025, an increasing number will be electric vehicles (EVs) that don’t require platinum or other platinum-group metals.
S&P Global Mobility projects that the global market share for EVs will rise to 16.7 percent over the next year, a significant increase from 7 percent in 2023. It sees 15.1 million EV units being sold.
Jewelry also provides significant demand for platinum. In 2025, the WPIC forecasts that demand will see a 2 percent rise to 1.98 million ounces, up from 1.95 million ounces the previous year.
Investment demand is also expected to grow in 2025, rising 7 percent from 2024 to 420,000 ounces.
The figures from the WPIC show that demand gains will be offset by a 9 percent decline in industrial demand, which is seen falling to 2.22 million ounces from 2.43 million ounces last year. The use of platinum in the production of glass is forecast to decline the most, 57 percent, to 286,000 ounces from 671,000 ounces in 2024.
Due to its high melting point, platinum is used to line vessels and coating equipment used in the production of glass, particularly glass used for liquid-crystal displays. In 2021, the use of platinum surged as display manufacturers increased furnace capacity and glass fiber production lines.
Small increase anticipated for platinum supply
Platinum supply is forecast to increase marginally by just 0.76 percent in 2025.
Supply is anticipated to come in at 7.32 million ounces, up slightly from the 7.27 million ounces produced in 2024. This sets the market up for a supply shortfall of 539,000 ounces this year.
Refined production is expected to contract by 1 percent, with 5.55 million ounces entering the market compared to 5.63 million ounces last year. South Africa is one location where output has fallen off.
The decline was acknowledged in August, when Paul Dunne, CEO of producer Northam Platinum Holdings (OTC Pink:NPTLF,JSE:NPH), said the “industry had entered into a phase of irreversible decline.” He suggested this was due to a combination of low prices and a challenging demand landscape as EV adoption gains traction.
Secondary supply from all recycling sources is expected to reach its highest level since 2021, rising 12 percent to 1.77 million ounces. Although platinum is predicted to be in a supply deficit for the third year in a row, this setup may not significantly impact prices owing to more than 3.01 million ounces held in aboveground stockpiles.
What is the platinum price outlook for 2025?
In a video outlook, Jeffrey Christian, managing partner at CPM Group, predicts that the platinum price will remain relatively flat in 2025, possibly facing downward pressure in the year ahead.
This would put the price for the precious metal in the US$900 to US$1,000 range.
With the platinum market expected to continue in deficit through 2025, Heraeus Precious Metals believes there will be some price support. However, like CPM, the firm doesn’t see much upside for the metal over the next year.
Heraeus predicts the metal's price will range from US$850 and US$1,220.
UBS Group (NYSE:UBS) echoed this sentiment with a price target of US$1,100 for the middle of the year.
The Swiss bank believes that real assets will be supported as the US Federal Reserve eases interest rates, though it suggests platinum is likely to lag behind gold until rates support higher industrial activity.
With all of that said, global geopolitical tensions remain high, and with the platinum price predicted to remain tight in 2025, it may not take much to upset that balance. An example of this came this past October, when the threat of further sanctions against Russia caused price rises for both platinum and palladium.
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Palladium Price Forecast: Top Trends for Palladium in 2025
Since reaching an all-time high of US$3,002 per ounce in February 2022, palladium has trended down.
More than 80 percent of palladium demand comes from the auto sector, where it is used in the production of catalytic converters. However, palladium's high price has prompted substitution for platinum, which is currently less expensive.
Palladium largely traded in the US$900 to US$1,100 range for most of 2024, but saw a short-term spike to US$1,200 in October as the US called for stricter sanctions on Russian precious metals.
Russia is one of the world’s top suppliers of palladium and other platinum-group metals.
What's the outlook for palladium in 2025 after 2024's relatively flat performance? Read on to find out.
What factors will impact palladium in 2025?
In a 2025 outlook video, Jeffrey Christian, managing partner at CPM Group, said he expects both platinum and palladium prices to stay rangebound in 2025, albeit with a downward bias.
He expects that bias to be more pronounced for palladium due to weakening demand from the auto sector.
The auto sector is critical to palladium demand, and while overall car sales are expected to rise 1.7 percent to 89.6 million units in 2025, an increasing number will be electric vehicles, which doesn’t require any palladium.
However, while electric vehicle (EV) demand is still growing, the speed at which EVs are gaining market share is slowing. According to data from S&P Global Mobility, EV market share for light vehicles is expected to reach 16.7 percent in 2025 — that's compared to 13.2 percent in 2024 and 7 percent in 2023.
The slowdown is in part due to market saturation; it has also been attributed to consumer fears around the availability of charging infrastructure and EV range anxiety. Additionally, broader electrical grid requirements may be stymied by a lack of necessary resources like copper to provide upgrades needed to handle an influx of new vehicles.
Another issue that may influence the auto industry in 2025 is the effect of policy proposals from the incoming Trump administration. In December, Donald Trump proposed sweeping 25 percent tariffs on the US’s largest trading partners, Canada and Mexico. If implemented, such tariffs would have an outsized impact on the North American auto sector, as vehicles and parts would face a 25 percent cost increase every time they enter the US.
Without carve outs, the move could decimate new light vehicle demand in all three countries.
However, during his election campaign, the president-elect also proposed eliminating subsidies for new EV sales, effectively pushing the price of new vehicles up by as much as US$7,500.
It remains to be seen how and when these promises will be implemented.
It’s also uncertain how much influence Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk will have, especially over EV policy, but he has already endorsed rolling back the subsidies.
Palladium supply and demand in 2025
The auto sector accounts for 80 percent of palladium demand, making it by far the most important driver.
According to the World Platinum Investment Council's five year outlook for palladium, auto sector demand is seen growing "modestly," rising to a high of 8.5 million ounces, below the pre-COVID record of 9 million ounces.
However, this will be offset by lower levels of jewelry and industrial demand.
The firm predicts that the palladium market will transition to a surplus from 2025, with oversupply forecast to hit 897,000 ounces by 2025. That will come on the back of a 1.2 million ounce increase in recycling supply.
In addition to scrap material, output from both Russian and South African mines is anticipated to return to historic levels, further supporting an oversupplied palladium market.
What is the palladium price outlook for 2025?
Christian’s prediction of a sideways palladium price suggests a range of US$900 to US$1,000.
This viewpoint is supported by a recent report from Heraeus Precious Metals. It states that the metal is likely to trade between US$800 and US$1,200, also based on increasing supply and weak demand.
Overall, the consensus seems to be that the palladium market will be weaker in 2025.
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Copper Price Forecast: Top Trends for Copper in 2025
Copper prices saw impressive gains in 2024, even breaking the US$5 per pound mark in May. However, the red metal's gains didn't last, and by the end of the year copper had retreated back to the US$4 range.
The start of 2025 could be eventful, with Donald Trump returning to the Oval Office, a new stimulus package coming into effect in China and a continued push for greener technologies around the world.
What will these factors mean for copper prices in the new year? Will they rise, or can investors expect the base metal to remain rangebound? Here's a look at what experts see coming for the important commodity.
How will Trump's presidency impact US copper projects?
Trump will be sworn in for his second term as US president on January 20.
During his campaign, he made bold promises that could shake up the American resource sector, pushing a "drill, baby, drill" mantra and committing to increasing oil production in the country.
When it comes to copper, Trump's proposed changes to environmental regulations could have key implications. While the Biden administration has sought to toughen these rules, Trump will look to relax them.
In an email to the Investing News Network (INN), Eleni Joannides, Wood Mackenzie's research director for copper, said changes to environmental regulations are likely to benefit the mining sector overall.
“The former president has already pledged to overturn a 20 year moratorium on mining in Northern Minnesota. This pro-mining approach means more mines could be permitted and put into production,” she said.
One project that was being planned before the Biden administration restricted access to federal lands in the Superior National Forest belongs to Twin Metals Minnesota, a subsidiary of Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO,OTC Pink:ANFGF). The company has been working to advance its underground copper, nickel, cobalt and platinum-metals group project since 2006, and has submitted plans to state and federal regulatory agencies.
Another copper-focused project that may benefit from the incoming Trump administration is Northern Dynasty Minerals' (TSX:NDM,NYSEAMERICAN:NAK) controversial Pebble project in Alaska.
The company has been exploring the Bristol Bay region since acquiring the property in 2001, but the US Army Corps of Engineers denied approval in 2020; the Environmental Protection Agency did the same in 2021.
Northern Dynasty has been fighting these decisions at both the state and federal level. It reached the Supreme Court in January 2024, but was denied a hearing until the dispute is examined at the state level.
On December 20, Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy added his support for the project when he petitioned the incoming president to issue an Alaska-specific executive order on his first day in office. The order would effectively reverse decisions made by the Biden administration, including the permitting of the Pebble project.
In addition to Pebble, projects like Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) and BHP’s (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) Resolution, and Hudbay Minerals' (TSX:HBM,NYSE:HBM) Copper World, both of which are in Arizona, may benefit from Trump’s plan to reduce permitting times on projects worth over US$1 billion.
Currently, large-scale operations like these can take up to 20 years to move from exploration to production in the US. Copper is considered a critical mineral for the energy transition, and is increasingly becoming a security concern as the US is largely dependent on China for its supply of copper.
Copper price volatility expected under Trump tariff turmoil
As tensions continue to grow between the west and eastern nations like China and Russia, it may not take much to threaten markets for critical materials, including copper.
Trump has already promised to impose a 60 percent tariff on all goods coming from China.
A tariff on copper imports could upend the president-elect's plans for the resource sector. It would increase the prices of copper imports and disrupt the overall economy.
“The risk is that the president-elect’s threatened tariffs, including 60 percent on China and 20 percent on all other nations, could derail global economic growth, lead to higher inflation and, with that, tighten monetary policy and also lead to a change in trade flows. Copper will suffer if demand takes a hit," Joannides said.
"In addition, there is likely to be continued volatility in prices,” she added.
In its recent analysis of Trump’s policies, ING sees an overall negative impact on global metals demand.
The firm believes that many of his plans, including tariffs, will cause the US Federal Reserve take a longer-term approach to reducing interest rates, which could affect investment in large-scale copper projects.
S&P Global expressed a similar view after Trump's win. Immediately after the election, copper prices sank 4 percent to fall under US$4.30, with the firm suggesting that is likely just the beginning. The organization notes that while the market may have already priced in Trump’s tariffs, a larger trade war could impact prices even further.
Economic recovery in China could further boost copper prices
China's faltering economy has been a major headwind for copper over the past several years.
The country's housing market accounts for roughly 30 percent of global demand for the red metal, meaning that any shifts could have significant implications for the copper market.
The sector has been struggling for the past few years as the country deals with economic issues, including fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused disruptions to supply chains and a spike in unemployment.
Ultimately, economic factors struck China's real estate sector, an important driver of the country’s gross domestic product; this caused the collapse of the nation's top two developers, China Evergrande Group and Country Garden.
So far, the government’s attempts to stimulate the economy and jumpstart the beleaguered real estate sector have largely failed. In September, it announced measures aimed at property buyers, such as reducing interest rates for existing mortgages by 50 points and cutting the minimum downpayment requirement for homes to 15 percent.
Other changes introduced at the time include more help from the People’s Bank of China, which will provide a lending facility for state-owned firms to acquire unsold flats for affordable housing.
China followed this up with an announcement in November that it will provide additional support for local governments by increasing their debt-raising capacity by 6 trillion yuan over the next six years.
While these measures may not be felt for some time, kickstarting the Asian nation's real estate sector could be a boon for copper producers and investors.
“If the Chinese real estate market were to post a recovery, this would see domestic demand for copper tick higher and could lead to a tighter supply and demand balance overall, assuming all other things remain unchanged. This would underpin even higher prices than we are currently projecting,” said Joannides.
Copper industry needs more investment dollars
With copper demand projected to grow long term, supply-side concerns are rising. According to Joannides, there is already recognition that copper exploration has been underinvested over the past few years.
“We are seeing signs this could change. Much of the growth over the last five years has come from brownfield expansions rather than greenfield/new discoveries," she explained to INN.
"Technology will likely help increase the chance of discovery, and broadly I would say that policymakers are now more supportive of mineral exploration as the push to secure critical raw materials supply has moved up the agenda."
Joannides pointed to greenfield projects already in the pipeline, including Capstone Copper’s (TSX:CS,OTC Pink:CSCCF) Santo Domingo in Chile, Southern Copper’s (NYSE:SCCO) Tia Maria in Peru and Teck Resources' (TSX:TECK.A,TECK.B,NYSE:TECK) Zarfanal in Peru.
There's also Northmet, a Teck and Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF) joint venture in Minnesota.
Rising copper prices could also increase the flow of money from the major companies into the junior space, where most of the exploration is currently occurring.
“Copper has become the standout strategic preference for the major mining companies. The risk-adjusted cost of developing organic copper assets is higher than the cost of acquiring them,” Joannides said.
This kind of acquisition activity could help reduce the development time of assets compared to companies starting exploration from scratch.
Investor takeaway
While copper supply and demand conditions are expected to remain tight in 2025, competing forces are at play.
One of the biggest factors is Trump’s return to the White House. If the president-elect takes action as quickly as he has promised, investors could soon gain insight on the long-term implications of his policies.
In terms of China, it will take time to get the property sector back to where it was before the pandemic; however, there may be sparks early in the year as new measures start to work their way through the market.
During 2025 it may be even more prudent than usual for investors to do their due diligence on copper and keep an eye on the forces that may affect the market.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold shares of Northern Dynasty Minerals.
Editorial Disclosure: Dore Copper is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Nickel Price Forecast: Top Trends for Nickel in 2025
The nickel market has faced challenges over the past few years due to a supply glut and weak demand.
Even though the price of nickel surged in the first quarter of 2024, higher prices didn’t last. By the end of the year, any gains the base metal had made were erased, and it entered 2025 in the US$15,000 to US$15,200 per metric ton range.
What's in store for the rest of the year, and what nickel trends should investors be watching?
Nickel market oversupply to continue in 2025
Indonesian supply is a key reason nickel prices are under pressure, as is a lack of demand growth.
In comments emailed to the Investing News Network (INN), Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING, suggested that the situation isn’t likely to change for nickel in 2025.
“We believe nickel’s underperformance is likely to continue — at least in the near term — amid weakening demand and a sustained market surplus. A surge in output in Indonesia has dragged nickel lower over recent years, and demand from the stainless steel and electric vehicle (EV) battery sectors continues to disappoint,” she said.
Her statement follows recently introduced measures from China. Set to take effect in 2025, they involve injecting US$1.4 trillion over the next five years, and are meant to help the country’s ailing economy.
However, past measures introduced in 2024, particularly those in September, have yet to significantly affect the nation's housing and manufacturing sectors, which are net demand drivers for stainless steel.
Jason Sappor, senior analyst, metals and mining research, at S&P Global Commodity Insights, expressed similar sentiments about nickel's 2025 performance in comments to INN.
“We expect the market to remain oversupplied in 2025, as Indonesia and China’s primary nickel output expands further,” he said. Sappor added that subdued prices could lead to further output curtailments across the industry. This would be in addition to cuts already made at various operations around the world, particularly in Oceania.
The situation even has top producer Indonesia considering restricting output.
“The latest news reports that Indonesia’s government is considering making deep cuts to nickel-mining quotas to boost prices also highlight that the implementation of restrictions on the country’s nickel output should not be ignored as a risk to forecasts for the market to stay in surplus in 2025,” Sappor said.
For her part, Manthey suggested that cuts to nickel supply in 2024 did little to upset the market surplus — instead, they may have solidified Indonesia’s dominance over the industry.
“The recent supply curtailments also limit the supply alternatives to the dominance of Indonesia, where the majority of production is backed by Chinese investment. This comes at a time when the US and the EU are looking to reduce their dependence on third countries to access critical raw materials, including nickel,” she said.
Will Trump change the Inflation Reduction Act?
One of the biggest factors that could come into play in 2025 is Donald Trump's return to the White House.
During his campaign, Trump made several promises that could lead to a shift in the US’ environmental and energy transition policies. While nothing is set in stone just yet, the actions he takes could include reversing commitments made under the Paris Agreement and ending tax credits for EVs.
A significant unknown is how Trump will approach the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
The program, which was established under the outgoing Biden administration, was designed to stimulate a move away from fossil fuels, while also supporting the procurement of friendly supply of low-carbon nickel.
One part of the IRA has made it challenging for Indonesia to export nickel to the US. As it stands, EVs must meet foreign entity of concern (FEOC) rules to qualify for the US$7,500 tax credit outlined under the IRA.
The US considers nations like China, Russia, Iran and North Korea to be areas of concern. Under rule 30D of the act, these nations cannot control more than 25 percent of the board seats, voting rights or equity interests of any company that supplies critical minerals for EV batteries destined for the US.
This has been a major obstacle for Indonesia as it has worked to build a trade partnership with the US.
Manthey outlined how Trump may seek to tighten rules, making a trade pact with Indonesia more difficult.
“Indonesia has been trying to reduce China-based ownership of new nickel projects to help its nickel sector qualify for the IRA tax credits. Tighter FEOC rules would create more issues for nickel supply chains, and would be an obstacle to Indonesia’s goal of expanding its export market to the US,” she said.
Manthey also said if the rules are tightened, primary and intermediate production will continue to be sent to China.
Investor takeaway
Barring any major shift in the supply and demand environment, nickel prices are unlikely to see significant gains over the next year. For investors, this is likely to make for a less supportive environment.
“The surplus in the Class 1 market is reflected in the rising exchange stocks," said Manthey.
"Further inflows of Chinese and Indonesian metal into the exchange’s sheds could put additional downward pressure on the London Metal Exchange’s nickel prices," she added in her comments to INN.
For Manthey, the potential upside would be stronger stainless steel output or restricted ore supply from Indonesia. However, slower EV market growth or the cancellation of some incentives in the US could offset this.
Overall, she isn’t expecting large price movements in the coming year.
“We forecast nickel prices to remain under pressure next year as the surplus in the global market continues. We see prices averaging US$15,700 in 2025,” Manthey said.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: FPX Nickel is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Zinc Price Forecast: Top Trends for Zinc in 2025
The zinc price performed well in 2024, becoming a leader in the base metals sector.
Zinc is predominantly used to make galvanized steel, which is used in the construction and manufacturing sectors. The past several years have seen these industries largely depressed due to high inflation and high interest rates.
What helped the base metal over the past year is that weak demand was met with weak mine supply.
What could a new administration in the White House, or new economic stimulus measures in China mean for the zinc market? And which factors should investors consider in 2025? Here's what experts see coming.
How will Trump's return impact the zinc market?
One of the big stories of 2025 is Donald Trump’s return to the White House in the US. This event will have a broad impact across many industries, and has significant implications for the resource sector.
Trump has made an array of promises, one of which is to improve permitting times for projects costing above US$1 billion, a move that some experts believe could make the US more attractive for base metals projects.
One asset that may benefit from improved permitting under Trump is South32’s (ASX:S32,OTC Pink:SHTLF) Hermosa property, located near Tucson, Arizona. Its cost stands at over US$2 billion, and it has already seen improved permitting timelines through the US Federal Permitting Improvement Steering Council.
Trump's promise to free up federal lands for new housing could also be a boon for zinc producers, as this would mean greater demand for galvanized steel products that use the base metal.
However, Trump's platform also heavily favored imposing new tariffs, which could create inflationary pressures.
While there's still much uncertainty about how tariff plans will play out, higher costs for materials used by homebuilders could significantly weaken demand for new homes, regardless of available federal support.
In an interview with the Investing News Network (INN), Daniel Smith, head of research at Amalgamated Metal Trading (AMT), said China will be the biggest problem with imposing new tariffs.
“What’s happened (in 2024) is that China’s had very weak domestic demand for a lot of base metals, but it’s been saved by the export side, so they’ll come under threat more next year with the tariff barriers going up,” he said.
Smith also suggested that the proposed tariffs may ultimately have less impact than expected, commenting, “Trump’s bark is worse than his bite, so I don’t think it’s going to be particularly bad.”
In a January 9 article, Smith further notes that Trump has limited power to drive markets, and there may be a disconnect between his rhetoric and the policies he can implement as president.
He goes on to say that global factors are often more important as market drivers.
Nevertheless, China is already looking to expand manufacturing in places like Mexico and Vietnam. This would allow it to avoid the higher prices that may be imposed on goods produced directly in China.
At the same time, Smith pointed out that it's very hard that for base metals consumers to avoid materials from China, which has led to some concern about increasing supply in the US.
“It’s very difficult to build new smelters. So China normally produces a lot of metal, but also manufactured goods. The typical route is manufactured goods end up in the US, so there’s been some attempts to build out new capacity in the US, but it's really very slow,” Smith commented to INN.
Tom Rutland, senior analyst at CRU Group, also spoke about potential Trump tariffs.
“By far, the biggest implications of the tariffs will be on US premia and the potential knock-on impact they will have on US zinc demand. For now, we do not expect it to impact zinc supply in any way,” Rutland told INN via email.
Zinc supply and demand in 2025
Overall, experts see zinc supply and demand remaining relatively similar from 2024 to 2025.
CRU expects mine supply to grow moderately, rising by 1.9 percent year-on-year, with a slight increase in refined output of 0.3 percent. Meanwhile, the firm expects demand to grow by 0.3 percent.
Some of this increase may come from Russia as the Overnoye mine in Eastern Siberia is expected to start production in 2025. The mine was originally slated to begin ramping up output in late 2023, but stalled after a fire destroyed critical equipment. Production was reported to have started in November 2024, but Rutland is skeptical.
“Replacing the damaged equipment was complicated by the sanctions imposed on Russia, meaning the mine had to replace the equipment with domestic technology, which we believe is unlikely to have been possible to have achieved to a high standard over such a short time frame,” he commented to INN.
Rutland doesn’t see Overnoye making a substantial contribution to zinc supply in 2025 either.
However, once the Russian mine is fully operational, it will add an additional 600,000 metric tons of zinc concentrate per year, accounting for 4.5 percent of total zinc production.
Another mine that may begin to ramp up in 2025, is the Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead-zinc mine in China. The operation has also faced significant delays due to terrain and weather.
“It’s a very large mine in Xinjiang province, which is an extremely difficult place to do mining. It’s very high and subject to extreme weather conditions like sand storms, so it’s been quite a challenge to ramp that mine up as well,” said Smith.
With reserves of over 21 million metric tons, it will be the world's sixth largest lead-zinc mine once operating.
Investor takeaway
Even though zinc performed well in 2024, both supply and demand were weak. Barring any rebound in the Chinese or European construction and manufacturing sectors, these conditions are expected to continue in 2025.
Looking forward, Rutland sees the price of zinc remaining flat in the new year, and expects the base metal to average US$2,850 per metric ton, with the concentrate and refined markets in balance.
Smith shared a similar sentiment on supply and demand in 2025, but was more optimistic, suggesting that the price of zinc could push up to the US$3,300 range this coming year.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates.
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Group Eleven Resources is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Iron Ore Price Forecast: Top Trends for Iron Ore in 2025
Iron prices started off strong at the beginning of 2024, but have since dropped steeply to two year lows.
Iron is one of the world’s most important industrial metals, and is primarily used in the production of ferrous metals, including steel and cast iron, as well as alloys of iron with other metals.
As the world’s largest producer and exporter of stainless steel, China is naturally the world’s largest consumer of iron ore. While the Asian nation may be the third largest iron-producing country, its domestic supply is not enough to meet demand. Hence, the country imports over 70 percent of global seaborne iron ore.
This makes the iron market highly sensitive to fluctuations in the health of China's economy, in particular its property sector. China’s real estate woes in recent years have weighed down the steel and iron ore markets.
As the new year approaches, the Investing News Network (INN) spoke to experts about the main trends in the iron market in 2024 and what the forecast is for 2025. Read on to learn what they said.
How did iron ore perform in 2024?
Iron ore spot prices are assessed based on iron ore fines containing 62 percent iron, an ideal standard specification for raw material in the production of high-quality steel.
Starting the year strong, iron ore prices hit US$144 per metric ton (MT) in January, but then fell as low as US$91.28 in September. Overall for 2024, the iron ore price has shrunk by 27 percent.
“The main reasons for the drop are: China’s lower pig iron production, steady seaborne shipments, rising port stocks and a subdued economic environment in China, but also in the rest of the world,” Erik Sardain, principal analyst at Project Blue, told INN via email. Pig iron is produced via smelting and is an intermediate material in the production of steel.
During the first 10 months of 2024, China’s production of crude steel declined by 3 percent year-on-year (y-o-y), as per the World Steel Association. Project Blue notes that China’s pig iron production dropped by 4 percent.
“This is mostly due to a weak construction and persistent depressed property market. As for evidence, China’s rebar production (mostly exposed to construction) dropped 14.3 percent y-o-y from January-October,” said Sardain.
On a global basis, steel production has fallen by 1.6 percent, with four other top steel-producing countries joining China in posting declining production of the material during the same period. Those nations are Japan (-3.7 percent), along with the US (-1.9 percent), Russia (-6.8 percent) and South Korea (-5.1 percent).
Significant increases in steel production came from India (5.6 percent) and Brazil (6 percent); however, both nations have sufficient domestic iron ore, and so do not place demand on the global seaborne market.
Iron ore prices have been buoyed in 2024 on China’s strong iron ore imports. Project Blue reports that the country’s iron ore imports were up 4.9 percent y-o-y for the first 10 months of 2024. Domestically, the country’s iron ore production increased by 2.8 percent y-o-y, based on run-of-mine with an undisclosed iron content.
On the supply side, Project Blue sees iron ore shipments increasing slightly in 2024, primarily from Vale's (NYSE:VALE) gradual recovery after a sharp dive in production following the 2019 Brumadinho accident.
Meanwhile, major miner BHP’s (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) iron ore production is also seen increasing slightly as its new South Flank mine reaches full capacity. Both Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) and Fortescue’s (ASX:FMG,OTCQX:FSUMF) production of the commodity is projected to come in flat for the year.
In late September, the Chinese government announced that new stimulus measures were on the way to juice the nation's economy, namely the housing sector. Following the news, iron ore prices rallied by more than 21 percent to a fourth quarter high of US$112.39 on October 7. However, by November 1 the excitement had worn off, with prices falling back to US$102 on persistent weakness in demand and rising inventory levels.
“Due to weaker end-user demand, softer downstream steel prices in the domestic Chinese market weighed on steelmaking margins, especially in the latter half of November,” David Cachot, Wood Mackenzie's research director, steel raw materials, commented to INN via email.
“Chinese hot metal production remained high, which helped ease some pressure on iron ore fundamentals.”
Heading into the last few weeks of the year, iron ore prices are hovering around US$105.
Expectations of worsening trade tensions with the US following Donald Trump's presidential election win in November are also weighing down the outlook for Chinese iron demand.
“Another factor has been the subdued macro environment in China, with markets waiting for effective stimulus from the Chinese government to boost domestic consumption and revive the property market. Those expectations have been consistently disappointed in 2024, with most measures taken by the Chinese government using monetary policy (lower interest rates). Fiscal measures would have been more effective,” explained Sardain.
Higher than seasonally normal port inventories are also weighing on prices.
“With higher iron ore imports and a lower implied demand, port stocks increased significantly in 2024, reaching 150.7 million MT in mid-December, a 31 percent y-o-y increase,” he added.
What trends will move the iron ore market in 2025?
Iron ore investors should continue watching trends out of China, specifically concerning inventory levels at its ports, economic stimulus measures, US tariff measures and ongoing challenges to its property sector.
Global iron ore production and steel demand out of key ex-China markets are also factors to watch in 2025.
In the first quarter of 2025, Wood Mackenzie expects to see continued support for iron ore prices as mill restocking activity is anticipated to be higher than typical for this time of year. Between November and February, construction in China hits its slow season and steel mills close down for maintenance and environmental regulations slow activity.
“The off-peak season will impact hot metal production, but expectations for winter stockpiling are likely to support iron ore prices. Additionally, seasonal environmental restrictions affecting steelmaking hubs will benefit steel prices and tend to boost raw materials prices as well,” explained Cachot in his email to INN.
“During this period, it is common for raw materials to outperform steel product prices.”
On the supply side, global iron ore mine production and exports are also seasonally weaker in the first quarter of the year. That’s because Australia’s cyclone season can disrupt port operations in the country, and heavy rains in Brazil can lead to mining and rail disruptions. Australia and Brazil are the world’s top two iron-producing nations, and their combined usable ore output represents a substantial 56 percent of global production.
“An increase in mill restocking activity, combined with the seasonally weaker iron ore supply in the first quarter, will likely reduce iron ore inventory, said Cachot, adding that this should support prices early in 2025. “However, ample inventories at Chinese ports will limit such restocking efforts and gains in iron ore prices.”
China's property sector a must-watch
Moving further into the year, analysts are advising that trade protectionism and further economic stimulus measures are important to watch in 2025. China’s property sector woes will continue to weigh heavily on iron ore demand unless the government can provide enough financial incentives to turn its economy around.
“China's housing market continues to struggle, and government stimulus has yet to significantly impact construction material markets. However, there is some optimism for further measures in the coming months to support prices,” Wood Mackenzie’s Cachot said. “Our base-case view is that ongoing concerns about the Chinese property market and an oversupplied market will limit the potential for price increases.”
Project Blue’s base case is that China’s steel production will be lower in 2025, primarily due to lower steel exports. “We forecast that China could export 10 million MT less steel in 2025 than in 2024, across markets. Our base case also expects a lower domestic steel production, in line with weaker macroeconomics,” Sardain said.
“However, some mitigation could come from a stabilisation of the property market, (which) we expect to take place in H1 2025, with some mild recovery in H2 2025.”
Potential US tariffs could further disrupt iron ore prices
Traditionally, iron ore prices are strong in the second quarter as China’s construction season is in full swing.
Although they mostly softened during the summer, the price of iron ore typically rises again in the months of September and October before sliding again in the winter months.
“However, this pattern could be very different in 2025 depending on the macro developments, the geopolitics and the implications of the US elections,” explained Sardain. His firm believes Trump’s proposed tariffs could bring about a 0.5 percent cut to China’s GDP growth in 2025, which would drag down steel production and reduce iron ore demand.
Ex-China steel demand
Steel production may also show signs of softening outside China, especially in other parts of East Asia and Europe.
“Production shutdowns, delays in decarbonisation projects, geopolitical uncertainties, and bottom prices would lead to long term structural loss to the EU steel industry,” said Wood Mackenzie’s Cachot.
“The outlook for Japan and South Korea remains subdued due to the consumption slowdown amid ongoing macroeconomic challenges. Speciality steel exports are expected to support production over the next decade.”
To meet net-zero climate targets, the European steel industry is working to decarbonize its production processes. However, the sector is facing a number of challenges, including rising energy prices, growing exports from China’s excess capacity and sliding domestic demand as economies in the region falter.
The downturn in steel demand is hitting Germany’s steel sector particularly hard. The nation is the top European steel producer and ranks in the top 10 globally. According to Worldsteel, Germany’s domestic steel demand is expected to grow by a little less than 6 percent in 2025 after falling by 7 percent in the previous year.
Global iron ore production
Trouble is also brewing for iron ore prices on the supply side for 2025 and beyond, as new mines and planned expansions are expected to increase global iron ore production.
“On the supply side, we expect higher seaborne supply from the large miners, primarily from Vale and to a lesser extent from BHP,” Project Blue's Sardain explained to INN. “New greenfield project Simandou in Guinea could start production at the end of 2025, but should not have a major impact on the iron ore market in 2025. However, it could negatively impact the market sentiment if shipments start at the end of the year.”
The Project Blue team also sees high port stocks maintaining pressure on iron ore prices.
By the end of the decade, market intelligence firm BigMint is predicting an iron ore supply surplus as new mines come online. One of those new supply sources is the high-grade Simandou in West Africa, considered the largest unmined iron ore deposit, which is anticipated to start operating in late 2025 or early 2026.
Africa’s seaborne iron ore exports may in turn more than triple by 2028 to 2030. With new mines also on the horizon in Australia and Brazil, the global maritime ore supply market is headed toward a surplus by 2030.
Iron ore price forecast for 2025
Wood Mackenzie’s iron ore price forecast on a 62 percent Fe fines basis, CFR China, is pegged at US$99 for 2025 and US$95 for 2026. The firm also expects China’s steel demand to decline at a compound annual growth rate of -1.2 percent by 2034, dragged down by its shrinking construction sector.
BMI also sees weak demand out of China, and is expecting iron ore prices to average US$100 in 2025 and to decline to traded at an average of US$78 by 2033.
Project Blue’s base case predicts an iron ore price drop below US$100 in 2025, driven by lower steel/pig iron production, high port stocks, steady seaborne shipments and a weakened Chinese and global macro environment.
If China can bring in effective fiscal measures and right its property market ship, the firm sees iron prices rising as high as US$120 to US$130, tempered by high port stocks.
However, if such measures do not materialize, the property market continues to fall and the newly elected US administration imposes high tariffs, there is the risk that iron ore prices could fall to a range of US$75 to US$80.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Lead Price Forecast: Top Trends for Lead in 2025
The lead price was volatile in 2024 as global economic uncertainty continued to affect metals markets.
As an industrial metal, lead has traditionally been used in lead-acid batteries, and to a lesser extent in pigments, weights, cable sheathing and ammunition. More recently, the electric vehicle (EV) market has opened up as an end-use growth sector for lead — that's because EV manufacturers need lead-acid batteries to power electrical systems.
Lead is typically mined as a by-product of zinc, silver and to a lesser extent, copper. Disruptions to the mining and demand profiles for these metals can have a sizable impact on lead sector fundamentals.
As 2025 approaches, the Investing News Network (INN) is looking back at the main trends in the lead space in 2024 and what’s ahead for prices, supply and demand in the new year.
How did lead perform in 2024?
Although the lead price started off the year above the US$2,025 per metric ton level, it quickly shot up nearly 8 percent in the first four weeks of 2024 on reduced primary and secondary supply. By the end of March, lead had shed those gains and then some, sliding down to US$1,963, only to rise to a high for the year of US$2,343 on May 28.
“China retained the spotlight in 2024. Stricter emission standards for battery makers since April tightened supply for lead, causing China to become a net importer of refined lead for the first time in years, boosting prices,” Adrià Solanes, associate economist at FocusEconomics, told INN via email.
A December report from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) shows that China, which is both the world’s largest producer and consumer of the metal, increased its imports of lead concentrate by 7.5 percent compared to the first 10 months of 2023. In total, the Asian nation brought in 590,000 metric tons for the period.
By August 5, the lead price had once again crashed, this time by more than 17 percent, to hit its lowest point of the year at US$1,930. For much of the rest of the year, volatility continued to plague the lead market, with price ups and downs causing the base metal to swing within the US$1,950 to US$2,150 range.
“Toward the end of the year, following the re-election of Donald Trump as U.S. President, lead prices came under pressure as the U.S. dollar strengthened,” said Solanes.
Despite its wide price swings, lead was down only 2.41 percent year-to-date as of December 18, 2024.
Lead's price performance in 2024.
Chart via TradingEconomics.
“On the supply front, lead output growth slowed, constrained by high energy prices and supply chain problems in the automobile industry,” according to Solanes.
In the first 10 months of 2024, ILZSG figures show that global supply of lead exceeded demand by 21,000 metric tons. That’s compared to 41,000 metric tons in the previous year.
Worldwide lead mine production rose by 1.5 percent. Lead metal production decreased by 1.7 percent over the same period in 2023, which according to the ILZSG was due to “lower output in China and Canada, where a scheduled maintenance at Teck Resources’ (TSX:TECK.A,TSX:TECK.B,NYSE:TECK) Trail operations impacted production during the second quarter.” Meanwhile, consumption of the metal decreased by 1.6 percent.
What factors will move the lead market in 2025?
Heading into 2025, what supply and demand factors are expected to drive the price of lead?
The ILZSG forecasts that global lead mine supply will rise by 2.1 percent in 2025, reaching 4.64 million metric tons; that would be comparedd to 1.7 percent growth in 2024. The organization sees increased lead supply coming out of the three top lead-producing countries: China, Australia and Mexico.
Looking over at global refined lead supply, the ILZSG sees a 2.4 percent increase to 13.51 million metric tons in 2024; that's compared to a 0.2 percent decrease to 13.2 million metric tons in 2024.
In terms of demand for refined lead metal in China, the ILZSG is forecasting a growth rate of 0.5 percent in 2025 after projected demand growth of 0.9 percent in 2024. Demand is expected to recover in Europe and Mexico in 2025, and continue to rise in India and Vietnam. On a global scale, demand for refined lead metal is forecast to increase by 0.2 percent, to 13.13 million metric tons, in 2024, and by 1.9 percent, to 13.39 million metric tons, in 2025.
The ILZSG “anticipates that global supply of refined lead metal will exceed demand by 63,000 tonnes in 2024. In 2025, a much larger surplus of 121,000 tonnes is expected.”
What other key trends and catalysts should investors look out for in the lead market in 2025?
“The strength of China’s industrial sector and stimulus policies in the country, along with the pace of global monetary policy, are key factors to monitor,” advised Solanes.
As the largest consumer of lead, China’s economic health is also a major factor for consideration. The World Bank is forecasting 4.8 percent annual growth in 2024 for China, the world’s second largest economy, and calling for slower growth of 4.3 percent in 2025. The weakest segment of China’s market has been its property sector.
Outside of the battery market, lead has several important applications in housing and infrastructure.
“Another relevant topic to track is trade policy under Trump, with the prospect of a Sino-American trade war posing headwinds to prices,” added Solanes.
As reported by Fastmarkets during LME Week, a conference held each fall in London, StoneX Senior Metals Analyst Natalie Scott Gray shared her insight into what’s ahead for the lead market in 2025.
Importantly, the firm is expecting increased mine production as well as demand.
Scott Gray said that as copper, zinc and silver mining activity increases for the year, so will lead output as it's often a by-product metal. Her firm is also forecasting that lead demand will increase by 2.2 percent in 2025 as falling interest rates improve demand for batteries. This would likely bring a slight uptick in the lead price for the year.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Lithium Market Forecast: Top Trends for Lithium in 2025
After a tumultuous 2024 that saw lithium carbonate prices tumble 22 percent amid a global supply glut, analysts are predicting another year of volatility for the important battery metal.
Even so, some balance is expected to return — according to S&P Global, the lithium surplus is projected to narrow to 33,000 metric tons in 2025, down from 84,000 metric tons in 2024, as production cuts begin to temper excess supply.
Demand from the electric vehicle (EV) market remains a key driver, with China maintaining its dominance after record-breaking sales in late 2024. In North America, the EV sector will face uncertainty under the Trump administration.
As 2025 unfolds, the lithium sector will also have to navigate geopolitical tensions, including rising tariffs on Chinese EVs and escalating trade disputes that are reshaping global supply chains.
“The name of the game in lithium (in 2025) is oversupply. Excess production in places like Africa and China, coupled with softer EV sales, has absolutely hammered the lithium price both in 2023 and 2024. I wouldn't think we can dig ourselves out of this hole in 2025 despite reliably strong EV sales,” said Chris Berry, president of House Mountain Partners.
In his view, the next 12 months could be unpredictable in terms of lithium price activity.
“Lithium price volatility is a feature of the energy transition and not a bug,” he said. “You have a small but fast-growing market, opaque pricing, legislation designed to rapidly build critical infrastructure underpinned by lithium and other metals, and this is a recipe for boom-and-bust cycles demonstrated by extremely high and extremely low pricing.”
For Gerardo Del Real of Digest Publishing, seeing prices for lithium contract by 80 percent over the last two years evidences a bottoming in the lithium market and also serves as a strong signal.
“I think the fact that we're up some 7 percent to close the year in 2024 in the spot price leads me to believe that we're going to see a pretty robust rebound in 2025. I think that's going to extend to the producers that have obviously been affected by the lower prices, but also to the quality exploration companies,” Del Real said in December.
He believes contrarian investors with a mid to long-term outlook have a prime opportunity to re-enter the space.
Lithium market to see more balance in 2025
As mentioned, widespread lithium production cuts are expected to help bring the sector into balance in 2025.
William Adams, head of base metals research at Fastmarkets, told the Investing News Network (INN) via email that output cuts for the battery metal have already started inside and outside of China.
“We expect further cutbacks if prices do not recover soon in the new year. While we have seen some cuts, we are also seeing some producers continue with their expansion plans and some advanced junior miners ramp up production. So we are now in a situation where we are waiting for demand to catch up with production again," he said.
Adams and Fastmarkets expect to see lithium demand catch up to production in late 2025. However, he warned that refreshed demand is unlikely to push prices to previous highs set in 2022.
“We do not expect to see a return to the highs we saw in 2022, as there are more producers and mines around now and there has been a buildup of stocks along the supply chain, especially in China,” he said.
“This should prevent any actual shortage being seen in 2025, but stocks can be held in tight hands, and if the market senses a tighter market, then they may be encouraged to restock, which could lift prices. But the restart of idle capacity in such a case is likely to keep prices rises in check," Adams added.
Analysts at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence are taking a similar stance, with a slightly more optimistic tone.
“In 2025, prices are likely to remain fairly rangebound. This is because Benchmark forecasts a relatively balanced market next year in terms of supply and demand,” said Adam Megginson, senior analyst at the firm. He also referenced output reductions in Australia and China, noting that they may not be as impactful as some market watchers anticipate.
This past July, Albemarle (NYSE:ALB), announced plans to halve processing capacity in Australia and pause an expansion at its Kemerton plant amid the prolonged lithium price slump. One of the plant’s two processing trains will be placed on care and maintenance, while construction of a third train has been scrapped.
“These supply contractions are likely to be balanced by capacity expansions due to come online in China in 2025, as well as in African countries like Zimbabwe and Mali,” Megginson said.
“Expect supply from these other regions to play a bigger role in the market in 2025.”
Unpredictable geopolitical situation to impact sector
Geopolitics is likely to play a key role in the lithium market this year, both directly and indirectly.
In 2024, the Biden administration raised tariffs on Chinese EVs to over 100 percent to counter alleged unfair trade practices, aiming to boost domestic production, but drawing criticism over potential supply chain disruptions.
Canada followed suit with similar 100 percent tariffs on Chinese EVs, as well as a 25 percent surcharge on Chinese steel and aluminum, citing the need to protect local industries. China has responded with World Trade Organization complaints against Canada and the US, along with the EU, labeling the measures protectionist.
Whether these tariffs against China will be enough to bolster the domestic North American EV market remains to be seen; however, the issue could become even more complicated if US President-elect Donald Trump makes good on his threats to levy tariffs on America's continental trade partners, Canada and Mexico.
Del Real doesn't expect US tariffs on critical minerals like lithium, but expressed concerns about a trade war.
“The bottom line is getting into a tit-for-tat with China is a dangerous proposition because of the leverage they have, especially in the commodity space, and so the tariffs are going to be passed down to consumers," he said. In his view, Trump's tariff threats could be more of a negotiating tactic than a sustained strategy.
More broadly, the experts INN heard from expect resource nationalism, near shoring and supply chain security to play prevalent roles in the lithium market and the critical minerals space as a whole.
“There's no doubt that lithium in particular has become politicized as policy makers across the globe have awoken from their slumber and realized that dependence on critical materials and supply chains in a single country is a bad idea for both economic and national security,” said Berry, noting that China had this realization decades ago.
“There is no easy fix, and you're looking at roughly a decade before any western countries have any sort of a regionalized or 'friend-shored' supply chain. Accelerating this would involve massive capital investment, patience and most importantly, political will. North America in particular has made great strides in recent years, but we have a long way to go. I'm not sure if fully decoupling from China is even a good idea," the battery metals expert added.
For Benchmark’s Megginson, 2025 could be a year of increased domestic development.
“We have seen several countries attempting to adopt some form of 'resource nationalism.' In some cases, this has been driven by wanting to onshore the production of critical minerals that are necessary for defense and nuclear applications. In others, it stems from a desire to be more self-sufficient so they can be more resilient to supply shocks.”
Proposed tariffs from Trump could also serve as a catalyst for US lithium output.
“With the incoming Trump administration, everyone has their eyes on how promises of increased tariffs will be implemented. Ultimately, heavier tariffs would accelerate efforts to onshore capacity in the US,” Megginson said.
“We may see the EU following suit with tariffs. There has been much said of the diversification of the lithium market away from China, but many of those efforts stalled in 2024 as the downswing in prices and a shifting geopolitical landscape made these endeavors more challenging," added the Benchmark senior analyst.
This nationalistic focus is also projected to impact refinement capacity and jurisdiction.
“While extracting the lithium from the ground has been successfully done in non-incumbent countries, such as in Brazil, Central Africa and Canada, with others expected to follow, the building of refining capacity has proved more difficult from a know-how and cost point of view, with a number of companies announcing that they are reining in some expansion plans, canceling some building projects or delaying decisions,” Adams of Fastmarkets said.
He went on to note that South Korea is an area to watch.
“Outside of China, South Korea has successfully ramped up new refining capacity, while Australia has had mixed results. The general issue is it’s hard to get the process right, and the CAPEX and OPEX outside of China means it is hard to be competitive. It will be interesting to see how Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) new Texas plant ramps up,” Adams noted.
Elsewhere, Adams pointed to the desire to secure supply chains. “Resource nationalism has also been an issue in some jurisdictions, with more countries now wanting processing capacity to be built in the country, and in order to force that they have banned the export of lithium-bearing ores. Zimbabwe a case in point,” he told INN.
Adams also pointed to Chile’s efforts to partially nationalize lithium producers, with the government mining company having controlling stakes in producers. “This could deter international investment in developing these mines,” he said. “In other metals, Indonesia has been very successful in playing the resource nationalism card.”
EV and ESS sectors to be key lithium price drivers
While the factors mentioned will undoubtedly impact the lithium industry in 2025, the market's most pronounced driver is the EV sector, and to a lesser extent the energy storage system (ESS) space.
“Demand for lithium-ion batteries is set to continue to grow rapidly in 2025. Benchmark forecasts that EV and ESS-related demand for lithium will both increase by over 30 percent year-on-year in 2025,” said Megginson.
To satiate this uptick in demand, “additional volumes of lithium will need to come to market.”
Megginson also noted that robust ESS demand is a positive demand signal for lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) cathode chemistries, but is unlikely to outweigh the mounting EV demand in China.
This sentiment was echoed by Berry of House Mountain Partners, who expects the EV and ESS sectors to continue dominating market share in terms of lithium end use. “EVs and ESS are roughly 80 percent of lithium demand, and this shows no signs of abating. Other lithium demand avenues will grow reliably at global GDP, but the future of lithium is tied to increasing proliferation of the lithium-ion battery,” he commented to INN.
Despite weak EV sales in Europe and North America in 2024, Fastmarkets’ Adams expects to see a recovery in demand from these regions, paired with strong sales in China. The dip in European sales, particularly in Germany after subsidy cuts in early 2024, mirrors China’s 2019 slowdown following subsidy reductions. However, as with China, the decline appears temporary, with a recovery expected as stricter emissions penalties take effect in Europe in 2025.
Additionally, Adams pointed to the growing adoption of extended-range EVs, which address range anxiety and use larger batteries than plug-in hybrid EVs, as a catalyst for lithium demand.
However, he noted that the outlook for EVs in the US remains uncertain as Trump takes the helm.
“ESS demand has been particularly strong, especially in China, and we expect that to continue as the need to build renewable energy generation capacity is ever present and has a wide footprint. For example, ESS buildout in India is strong, whereas demand for EVs is less strong, but again it is strong for 2/3 wheelers," said Adams. He added that low prices for battery raw materials have lowered prices for lithium-ion batteries, benefiting ESS projects.
Ultimately the lithium market is expected to see volatility in 2025, but could also present opportunities.
"I can see a 100 to 150 percent rebound in the lithium spot price easily in 2025. And again, I think there's a lot of opportunity there,” Del Real of Digest Publishing emphasized to INN.
For Megginson, the sector will be shaped by geopolitics and relations moving forward.
“Policy will have a huge role to play in driving price trends in 2025," he said.
"For instance, there remains uncertainty around how the tariffs promised by an incoming Trump administration in the US would be implemented, and how they could reshape the global lithium landscape."
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Beyond Lithium and Grid Battery Metals are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Cobalt Market Forecast: Top Trends for Cobalt in 2025
Oversupply and shifting battery chemistries are set to define the cobalt market in 2025. Prices — subdued by excess supply since 2023 — are expected to remain stable, with limited volatility.
The rise of lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries, particularly in China, continues to suppress demand for cobalt chemicals, challenging sulfate refiners. Meanwhile, on the supply side, Indonesia's rapid expansion in mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) production offers an alternative to the contentious Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Even so, the DRC is expected to remain the primary producer of cobalt in the near to medium term.
“Oversupply has been the dominant driving force for cobalt prices since 2023, and this is likely to persist in 2025,” Roman Aubry, price analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, said. “As this single factor is so overwhelming, it has stifled much of the volatility in the market in 2024, and it is likely this will be the case in 2025 as well.”
Cobalt demand projected to rise long term
Critical minerals have become a key focus as nations look to fortify domestic supply chains. The cobalt sector’s production concentration in the DRC makes it even more prone to geopolitical upheaval.
According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2024 Global Critical Minerals Outlook, the cobalt market has a heightened geopolitical risk rating because 84 percent of production is focused in a single country.
Despite the current cobalt glut, the IEA is projecting that demand will soar from 213,000 metric tons in 2023, rising to 344,000 metric tons in 2030 and then to 454,000 metric tons in 2040.
This steep uptick has prompted the IEA to project a potential 16 percent shortfall by 2035.
Although countries like Indonesia and Australia are starting to see cobalt sector growth, experts agree that the DRC will continue to be the dominant player in the industry into the future.
“The DRC is going to maintain its position for the foreseeable future; however, Indonesian MHP is rapidly growing as an alternative source of cobalt in the market. In line with this, we’ve seen an influx of cobalt metal from Indonesia becoming more prevalent in recent months, being aggressively marketed by Indonesian producers,” said Aubry.
Those circumstances mean Indonesia could capture a larger piece of market share this year.
“With CMOC (OTC Pink:CMCLF,SHA:603993) not planning any new expansions this year, it is unlikely we'll see any significant growth from the DRC in cobalt production in 2025,” he added.
Refinement capacity will also play an important role in meeting growing cobalt demand.
Australia’s Cobalt Blue Holdings (ASX:COB,OTC Pink:CBBHF) is advancing plans for the Kwinana cobalt refinery near Perth, proposing an initial production capacity of 3,000 metric tons of cobalt sulfate and 500 metric tons of nickel metal annually. Construction is slated to commence in H1 2025, with completion expected within 12 months.
Changing battery chemistries threaten cobalt demand
In 2024, record-breaking global electric vehicle (EV) sales helped solidify cobalt's role in the energy transition. China is spearheading a 40.7 percent surge in EV and hybrid adoption, supported by aggressive pricing and subsidies.
China remained the largest growth market as domestic automakers outpaced foreign rivals. European sales rebounded from setbacks early in the year, with stricter emissions penalties set to drive further adoption in 2025.
Despite US market uncertainties, growing EV demand globally will sustain cobalt's importance, although supply chain challenges and alternative battery technologies may influence its trajectory.
“As LFP becomes increasingly dominant in China, sentiment for cobalt chemicals used in batteries has turned more bearish,” Aubry said. “A downturn in demand may put sulfate refiners under additional pressure, particularly at a time where the current market dynamics already present significant challenges due to prices.”
Rising copper, nickel production boosts cobalt glut
Another factor that could lead to additional cobalt surpluses is the production correlation with copper and nickel.
A November 2024 Fastmarkets report notes that 76 percent of global cobalt supply comes from copper-cobalt mines in the DRC. This by-product status exposes cobalt to market dynamics in the copper space.
In 2024, copper production in the region was on the rise, which in turn weighed on the cobalt market.
“But with cobalt demand remaining decidedly sluggish, copper’s upward trajectory will continue to fuel cobalt oversupply and, combined with the fact that copper production is poised to expand further, this will keep cobalt prices under pressure,” the Fastmarkets report reads.
A similar picture is playing out in Indonesia, where cobalt is mined as a by-product of nickel.
Indonesia’s rise as a cobalt powerhouse is poised to reshape the market, fueled by its booming MHP production. In 2024, the country supplied 10 percent of global cobalt, up from 7 percent in 2023, driven by Chinese-backed investments in nickel laterite ore projects using high-pressure acid leach technology.
Despite weak nickel prices, these projects are ensuring long-term cobalt output growth, with MHP-derived cobalt production projected to rise by a sizeable 17 percent in 2025.
Producers are increasingly favoring cobalt metal over sulfate due to higher profitability and easier storage.
Additionally, cobalt from Indonesia may be immune to US tariffs — that's in contrast to Chinese cobalt, which faces a 25 percent import tariff, as per Fastmarkets. “That possibility could raise concerns about shifting global supply dynamics and increase the pressure on cobalt prices," the firm explains.
Due to these factors, Fastmarkets is expecting a continued surplus of 21,000 metric tons in 2025, a slight decrease from 2024’s glut of 25,000 metric tons. Increased copper and nickel production is driving this trend, but challenges loom.
Weak nickel pricing, driven by Indonesia’s rapid growth, is squeezing producers in higher-cost regions like Australia and Canada, threatening project viability. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions, trade barriers and a strong US dollar could further disrupt cobalt flows, especially from Chinese-backed Indonesian operations. The market’s trajectory will depend heavily on economic conditions, trade dynamics and evolving technologies, the report concludes.
Ethical supply concerns continue
As the global mining sector faces increased scrutiny for its extraction practices, the DRC’s cobalt industry has proven to be a focal point for sustainability and social governance concerns.
Child labor at artisanal and small-scale cobalt mines in the country has drawn international attention, prompting the US Department of International Labor to establish a program to fight cobalt-related child labor in the DRC.
Since its inception in 2018, the project has trained 458 stakeholders from the government, civil society and the private sector on fighting child labor. Its other accomplishments include introducing tools like the Bureau of International Labor Affairs' Comply Chain to 28 mining entities in Lualaba and Haut-Katanga.
While these are moves in the right direction, the long-running negative attention that the DRC’s cobalt sector has faced could be a deterrent to new capital entering the country.
“Alternatives to the DRC are likely to become more attractive to investors if it can sidestep other potential pitfalls, such as high refining energy costs. Until a more sustainable supply chain is embedded, or there are more substantial regulations implemented to limit the prevalence of artisanal mining, prices are unlikely to see a premium for sustainably sourced cobalt in the immediate term,” Aubry told the Investing News Network.
Trump’s tough tariff talk
Although Indonesian supply may be exempt from current US trade rules, that could change in the near term.
The re-election of US President Donald Trump has introduced significant uncertainty into the cobalt market, particularly concerning the future of electric vehicle (EV) policies and potential trade measures.
Industry participants have expressed concerns that Trump may reverse existing EV legislation, notably the Inflation Reduction Act, which has been instrumental in channeling approximately US$312 billion into US EV production and infrastructure. The American president has previously indicated intentions to "end the electric vehicle mandate on day one" in a bid to "save the auto industry from complete obliteration."
Despite these statements, the proliferation of EV manufacturing facilities in predominantly Republican states suggests that any policy reversals could face resistance due to the economic benefits they bring to local communities.
Stricter tariffs on Chinese-origin cobalt and EVs is also a concern among market watchers.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Fortune Minerals and Mawson Finland are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Graphite Market Forecast: Top Trends for Graphite in 2025
The natural graphite market faced pressure in 2024 as supply and demand trends created a deficit.
As the year progressed, slower-than-forecast end-use segment demand, production uncertainty and moderate investment in capacity growth outside of China remained the dominant sector themes.
A late-year recovery in global electric vehicle (EV) sales and a positive long-term demand outlook have positioned the graphite market for a mild recovery in 2025. However, with China dominating global supply, factors such as geopolitical tensions, export restrictions and policy changes could quickly alter the landscape.
“The risks to relying on China have really been highlighted over the last year. (In December 2023), China announced export licenses for graphite products," James Willoughby, senior research analyst for graphite, energy transition and battery raw materials at Wood Mackenzie, explained to the Investing News Network (INN).
"While they didn’t amount to much overall, China has once again threatened to tighten export controls this year, which could prevent battery anode producers receiving the raw materials required."
The synthetic graphite market is less exposed to Chinese disruption as it is less geographically concentrated.
“Although synthetic graphite producers are better off, natural graphite anode producers are almost completely reliant on China, so there’s a lot of concern around this at the moment,” Willoughby added.
Even though the Wood Mackenzie expert doesn’t foresee China limiting exports, incoming rules on US imports are adding pressure on North America to grow its domestic supply chain. “While we expect China to continue to allow battery-related exports, companies are looking to diversify their supply to reduce the risk,” he said.
“On top of this, there is a need to shift away from China for the US battery supply chain. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) specifies that by 2027, any batteries that contain graphite from China won’t be eligible for substantial tax credits. While it’s not clear which of these will remain under the new administration, we expect the requirements for non-Chinese material to continue.”
Graphite market facing dual supply challenges
Natural graphite production ballooned in 2022, when global mine supply reached 1,680,000 metric tons, a 73.9 percent increase from 2020’s 966,000 metric tons. Global output then registered a small 4.6 percent decline in 2023, totaling 1,600,000 metric tons; however, the reduction was enough to send the market into deficit.
According to Tony Alderson, senior analyst for Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the shortfall in the graphite sector has been attributed to rising demand from the battery anode segment.
“EV demand is set to rise by nearly 400 percent over the next decade. As such, the need for both natural and synthetic graphite is rising notably in line with this,” Alderson wrote in an email to INN.
“With regards to this increased demand, the natural graphite balance is already not holding up, with a 2024 deficit of nearly 150,000 metric tons per annum (tpa) emerging.”
Conversely, the synthetic graphite market is experiencing a supply glut.
“On the side of synthetic graphite, it is faring a little better when talking about the market balance as supply is stronger. The market is in a notable oversupply of 350,000 tpa, which is set to reach a deficit beyond the end of the decade,” Alderson commented. “One of the reasons for this chemistry disparity is due to the greater supply and ease of building a facility in a far (shorter) time period than with natural (graphite).”
Although the 2025 supply narrative is different, the future of both markets looks similar, Alderson noted.
“Despite this, the currently announced supply is simply not enough to meet the forecasted demand out to 2034, with both (segments) reaching deficits of over 600,000 tpa, which are only set to widen out to 2040,” he said.
In a 2022 report, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence notes that some 300 new mines are needed to support the energy transition, a percentage of which will need to be graphite mines.
“We forecast battery sector demand for raw material graphite to rise by more than 1,400 percent between 2020 and 2050,” it states. “By the end of the forecast period, total graphite demand could be three times the 2021 supply level.”
Shifting battery chemistries complicate forecast
Use in the EV sector is underpinning graphite demand; however, as battery chemistries continue to shift, experts believe supply and demand fundamentals for the commodity could change.
The rapid evolution of battery chemistries has posed significant challenges. While the shift in cathode materials from nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) to lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) in China has garnered much attention, similar transformations are also occurring within the anode market, explained Willoughby.
“China now primarily uses synthetic graphite anode materials as it’s faster to build out new production and easier to get the raw materials,” he said. “However, that has led to a massive oversupply for synthetic due to the number of new companies in the market, and in the natural (graphite market) demand has really fallen away in the last year.”
While NMC cathodes and natural graphite anodes are still quite popular outside of China, slower demand growth in 2024 has seen many of the major anode producers cut back output, he added.
Looking longer term, Willoughby admitted that the market could become opaque.
“It’s been a challenge to keep the ever-evolving supply and demand dynamics in check, particularly when the market has to increasingly consider regional regulations like the IRA," the expert noted.
“We see China continuing to operate at a surplus over the next decade because of its existing capacity, but the rest of the world still looks to need more capacity for both natural and synthetic anodes if it wants to meet its own demand.”
This position was reiterated by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence’s Alderson, who referenced the mounting geopolitical tensions between the east and west as a pain point in the long-term ex-China market buildout.
“China dominates not only natural graphite production (76 percent), but also downstream markets, controlling 79 percent of natural graphite anode and 98 percent of synthetic graphite anode supply globally," he said.
“This highlights that the deeper into the supply chain you go, the more entrenched China’s dominance becomes. They form the backbone of the anode supply chain, and it will be a challenge for the west to break.”
Alderson pointed to China’s December 3, 2024, implementation of an immediate ban on dual-use exports intended for US military applications, along with heightened end-use reviews for exports like graphite to the US.
Building a North American supply pipeline
To offset Chinese control, the US has taken notable steps to create onshore supply.
“Since the US IRA’s announcement in August 2022, over 500,000 tpa of anode capacity has been added, (which is) over a 200 percent+ increase,” said Alderson.
This move has been supported by government funding.
In November, 2023 South Star Battery Metals (TSXV:STS,OTCQB:STSBF), received a US$3.2 million grant from the Department of Defense (DoD) under the IRA to advance its flagship BamaStar graphite project in Alabama.
Similarly, Graphite One’s (TSXV:GPH,OTCQX:GPHOF) Alaska-focused subsidiary received a US$37.5 million DoD grant in July 2023 to cover costs associated with an accelerated feasibility study on the Graphite Creek project.
In September of the same year, Graphite One penned a US$4.7 million contract with the DoD’s Logistics Agency to develop a graphite- and graphene-based foam fire suppressant.
“Private companies are also ramping up onshoring efforts by inking offtake agreements with US anode producers, setting a record in 2024 for such deals,” Alderson explained to INN. “Despite these advancements, North America faces a 200,000 tpa market deficit in 2024, expected to grow as EV demand accelerates. As such, notable investment will be required to drive growth and achieve any form of self-sufficiency,” he added.
As new North American supply becomes imperative, the sole continental producer, Northern Graphite (TSXV:NGC,OTCQB), faced challenges in the low-price environment of 2024.
“While we are also moving forward to open a new pit at LDI and restart the plant at a higher throughput in January to meet rising demand, unless we can see our way through to higher prices, long-term supply agreements with battery makers and support from governments in Ontario, Quebec, Canada and/or the United States, the Company will continue to struggle whilst these challenging market conditions prevail for ourselves and the rest of the industry,” CEO Hugues Jacquemin said in a third quarter update released by the company in late November.
To aid in offsetting these pressures, Northern Graphite was able to negotiate a price increase with its customers in early January 2025 to mitigate inflation and higher production costs.
What trends will drive graphite in 2025?
As 2025 progresses, both market experts offered insight on which trends could be the most impactful.
“We’re expecting more bifurcation of the China and ex-China markets,” Wood Mackenzie’s Willoughby said.
“In 2024, we saw domestic Chinese prices sink much more rapidly and to a greater extent than export prices,” he said. “We expect them to remain low in 2025, but for US and European benchmarks to begin to climb again as the shift away from China as their major supplier creates tightness in that market.”
The volume needed in North America is likely to provide price insulation for graphite produced outside of China.
“Given the relative lack of ex-China mines, new production isn’t expected to dent this outlook too much,” he added.
For Alderson, volatility will reign supreme in the first half of 2025.
“Excess inventory overhang of battery-grade -100 mesh is expected to sustain high supply levels through 2025 despite forecasted reduction in production costs within the Chinese market,” he said. “Consequently, prices are forecasted to decline further in H1 2025, averaging US$413 per metric ton, down 22 percent year-over-year.”
He sees more stability materializing in the latter half of the year.
“In H2 2025, prices are set to recover moderately as inventories shrink and stock levels normalize, with China's overall production experiencing a gradual recovery,” he said. “However, ongoing competition from synthetic graphite for battery end-use applications will likely cap price growth.”
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: NextSource Materials and E-Power Resources are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Vanadium Market Forecast: Top Trends for Vanadium in 2025
The vanadium market is set to shift in 2025, driven by demand from the energy storage and steel sectors.
Energy storage systems that utilize vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs) are gaining traction as renewable energy deployment accelerates, boosting demand for high-purity vanadium. However, global supply remains constrained due to limited mining projects and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in China and Russia, key producers.
Environmental regulations and advances in recycling technology may also influence supply dynamics, and market observers are watching potential price volatility tied to steel demand, the largest end use of vanadium globally.
In September 2024, China introduced new rebar standards that are anticipated to boost high-quality vanadium demand.
“Production of rebar with the new standards will increase per annum vanadium nitrogen consumption by roughly 15 percent,” a July Fastmarkets report notes. “That calculation is based on China’s 2023 rebar production volume.”
“Vanadium demand in steel alloys will rise in 2025 due to change in Chinese rebar standards. However, expected demand rise in steel will not be as high as estimated from battery manufacturing in the medium term due to slowdown in the Chinese construction industry,” said Piyush Goel, commodities consultant at CRU Group, via email.
“Vanadium demand in batteries is estimated to rise rapidly; this rise in demand will primarily come from China due to targeted government policies towards VRFBs," he told the Investing News Network (INN).
China, which is the leading producer of vanadium, is also expected to drive global demand in the year ahead.
“Rise in vanadium demand in the medium term (til 2029) is estimated to be heavily concentrated in China, because we estimate VRFB demand to pick up faster in China compared to other regions,” he said. “Similarly, Chinese rebar standards also changed — requiring higher-vanadium-intensity steel. Due to the rapid rise in domestic vanadium demand, China is likely to become a net importer of vanadium as the Chinese market goes into deficit from surplus.”
Vanadium demand faces rebar challenges, with limited boost from batteries
Even though Fastmarkets is calling for a 15 percent uptick in vanadium demand for rebar, this will only bring demand back up to previous levels. As Erik Sardain, principal analyst for Project Blue, explained, China’s weak construction market has caused a 15 percent year-on-year decline in domestic rebar construction.
Despite positivity in the VRFB space, Sardain doesn’t expect this to offset lower rebar demand.
“No, no, no, no, absolutely not. If you want to look worldwide, you can say that steel in general is something like 90 percent (of vanadium demand),” Sardain said in a December interview with INN.
The expert went on to point out that quantifying the amount of vanadium used in batteries and energy storage is challenging. He also questioned demand trend forecasts from the battery segment.
“I think the market got it wrong for one main reason, because the market is assuming that the vanadium redox battery for the storage system is going to be something worldwide,” he said.
“And at Project Blue, we don't think it's going to be global. We think it's going to be primarily China.”
He attributes this to the types of installations utilizing VRFB energy storage systems, telling INN that China is using the technology to power grids, while other countries are using it for small-scale applications.
Taking a more optimistic and long-term view, CRU’s Goel sees more viability in the battery and energy storage segments.
“VRFBs will have a considerable impact on the vanadium industry through the next two decades, but will play a minor role in the energy storage space — accounting for only 3.5 percent of total battery energy storage installations by 2035,” said Goel. “Although VRFBs will make up a small portion of total energy storage, they are significant consumers of vanadium and will consume the majority of global vanadium in 2035, compared to ~6 percent in 2024."
Supply picture blurred by geopolitics
As the Russia-Ukraine war continues and tensions between the US and China grow, many metals have faced volatility. These disruptions have impacted global markets, spurring policymakers to fast track new supply chains.
China’s restrictions on gallium and germanium exports in August 2023 escalated to a complete ban on shipments to the US in December 2024, intensifying global supply concerns.
Potential export caps and tariffs threaten to disrupt already fragile supply chains; however, Goel told INN that he doesn’t foresee these issues impacting the vanadium market.
“Similar trade restrictions are unlikely in vanadium, as most of the recent rise in vanadium demand is coming from China, which means China is likely to become a net importer if no new capacity is opened,” he said.
“This also means that should China become import reliant for a meaningful share of vanadium, which is to be used in two significant national industries (steel and energy storage), vanadium will move up in criticality matrices for China — moving nearer to materials like iron ore, potash and high-purity quartz.”
As demand in China picks up, Sardain anticipates the Asian nation will ramp up production. “With the current geopolitical environment, there is absolutely no way that China is going to rely on imports of vanadium,” he noted.
According to Goel, China isn’t the only country that is looking to be less reliant on imports. “Governments worldwide have recognized vanadium as a critical mineral, leading to increased support for emerging vanadium projects,” he said.
He referenced Australian company Vecco Group, which received an AU$3.8 million grant to advance the feasibility and design of a high-purity vanadium project in Brisbane.
“However, such grants are not enough to bring a project from conception to production. The current low vanadium pricing environment is a barrier to increasing ex-China capacity,” he added.
Australia to dominate growing vanadium supply capacity
While China will dominate the vanadium narrative in 2025, Australia is positioning to become a production hub.
In addition to getting its AU$3.8 million grant, Vecco’s project was granted coordinated project status by the Queensland government this past July. The status designation streamlines approvals for major developments with significant impacts, centralizing assessments and enabling public consultation.
In late December, explorer and developer QEM (ASX:QEM) also received coordinated project status from Queensland for its Julia Creek vanadium and energy project. According to a July release, a scoping study completed for Julia Creek affirms the company’s aim to produce approximately 10,571 metric tons of 99.95 percent pure vanadium pentoxide and 313 million liters of transport fuel annually over a 30 year mine life.
In mid-January, Australian Vanadium (ASX:AVL,OTC Pink:ATVVF) was granted environmental approval for its Gabanintha vanadium project in Western Australia. The approval covers a mine, concentrator, processing plant and supporting infrastructure, including a bore field and camp. The company is updating its optimized feasibility study to integrate Gabanintha into its Australian Vanadium project, one of the largest and highest-grade vanadium deposits.
How will the vanadium price perform in 2025?
Underscoring the weakness in the vanadium market, Sardain recounted factors impeding price growth.
He explained that despite several elements that should have boosted demand, the market remains surprisingly weak. Chinese monetary stimulus measures and stricter rebar standard enforcement failed to drive prices higher.
Russian vanadium pentoxide exports to China have dried up, and supply uncertainties persist in South Africa.
These conditions, which typically would have supported price increases for the battery metal, have instead had little impact, highlighting the subdued demand, especially in China.
“To be really honest, I was expecting the market to pick up in the second half of 2024,” he said.
“I was expecting this to happen, because I was looking at the interest rate in Europe, the (European Central Bank) cutting interest rates. I was expecting some kind of recovery for the European economy. I was expecting the Chinese government to be more proactive. I was expecting the property market in China to stabilize. So I was expecting some kind of rebound in the second half, which didn't take place," Sardain explained to INN.
Although the market didn’t perform to expectations in 2024, he sees promise in the months ahead.
“I think that the market is currently bottoming out. I believe that we are very close to the stabilization of the property market in China. Whether it's going to happen in Q1 or Q2 I don't know, but maybe (there will be) some kind of very, very, very mild recovery in the second half (of the year),” he said.
Highlighting the market’s positive fundamentals, CRU’s Goel said he sees a price rebound in 2025.
“We are estimating a global supply deficit in 2025 due to change in rebar standards and rise in vanadium battery demand, causing vanadium prices to rise,” said Goel. “As more supply comes online in 2026 and 2027, by 2027 vanadium prices will come down when compared to 2025 prices, but crucially remain higher than the pricing in the last 12 months.”
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Manganese Market Forecast: Top Trends for Manganese in 2025
The manganese market was impacted by various factors in 2024, including growing demand for battery applications, geopolitical risk, production disruptions and strategic investments.
Positive demand from the electric vehicle (EV) sector offered support as automakers increasingly turned to manganese-rich chemistries like lithium-manganese-iron-phosphate (LMFP) to cut costs and reduce reliance on nickel and cobalt.
Meanwhile, supply chain vulnerabilities emerged due to political instability in major producing regions and heightened environmental scrutiny. In response, nations such as the US and Australia accelerated investments in refining facilities to reduce dependence on China and secure their EV battery supply chains.
Later in the year, oversupply from weaker-than-expected Chinese steel demand muted price growth in the space.
“Manganese sulphate prices turned bearish in Q4 … with slow spot buying in China and the effects of weather-related mine supply disruptions in Australia,” a Fastmarkets report from December reads.
Despite these challenges, the firm foresees a recovery in the manganese market in the years ahead.
“We expect demand to grow from now and into the 2030s, driven in part by new chemistries like LMFP,” Fastmarkets notes. In the short to mid-term, China’s supply base looks set to fulfil global needs of high purity manganese, though there is likely to be a long-term need for a greater high purity manganese capacity.”
Oversupply dampens manganese prices
Clare Hanna, senior steel analyst at CRU Group, recounted the most impactful 2024 trends for manganese.
“The key drivers in 2024 were the outage at South32’s (ASX:S32,OTC Pink:SHTLF)Groote Eylandt mine, the surge in alternative supplies and the weak state of Chinese demand,” she said.
“This led prices to first rise very sharply and then plummet as the market oversupply became apparent.”
South32 — the world’s largest manganese producer — saw operations suspended at its Australia-based Groote Eylandt mine in March due to a tropical cyclone. A phased return to mining began in June of last year; however, the severity of flooding due to the cyclone has impacted a wharf and the company’s ability to export.
In a statement, South32 said it expects exports to resume in Q3 2025.
Some of this reduced 2024 output was offset by purchase declines in China. As Hanna explained, Chinese demand was weak due to lower demand for steel rebar, which was driven by weakness in the Chinese real estate sector.
Prices for manganese ore could face headwinds in the year ahead as South32 continues to ramp up Groote Eylandt.
“The return of South32 to the market and the increase in high-grade supply could be a challenge, given the Chinese real estate market is not expected to improve significantly. Steel demand and production in other markets is forecast to improve,” Hanna explained to INN.
Key manganese demand drivers for 2025
Prized for their high energy density, automakers are increasingly turning to manganese-based batteries for their cost-effectiveness and reduced reliance on expensive metals like nickel and cobalt.
That said, as Hanna pointed out, the majority of manganese demand is still attributed to the steel sector.
“There is a lot of noise in the market about manganese usage in EV batteries, driven in part by companies looking for finance, and also because downstream, the processing of manganese ore for battery-grade manganese products is heavily concentrated in China at the moment," she said. “However, it is worth recognizing that in terms of manganese ore demand, the share that is going into EV supply chains is very small.”
The senior analyst went on to note that those dynamics are likely to shift in the coming years.
“While (EV sector) volume is growing and the demand from the steel sector is likely to decline over time, demand from steel supply chains will remain the dominant source of manganese ore demand, and therefore the biggest demand-side influence on manganese ore prices,” said Hanna.
She went on to explain why EV market usage has come to dominate the manganese narrative.
“When looking for investment, companies like to align their projects with growing market sectors, so when companies are talking about new mine investments, they often reference the EV supply chain — even if in practice, most of the ore will likely go to ferroalloy producers for consumption in steel production.”
New manganese sources outside of China
Like so many of the battery metals, the manganese supply chain is dominated by China, a factor many western nations are grappling with. In an effort to bolster supply outside of China, significant investments were made in 2024.
“What we are seeing is a number of projects aimed at producing high-purity manganese sulfate monohydrate (HPMSM) outside of China (in order to) reduce OEM EV battery supply chain risk, or take advantage of the benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act. Some of these are aligned with new or existing upstream mines,” said Hanna.
Although the plan looks good on paper, the CRU steel specialist pointed out the challenges of building HPMSM supply independent of China. She noted that operational plants are a couple of years off at minimum.
“Production of HPMSM is a chemical process, so existing producers of manganese metal or other manganese chemicals would be able to move into this product area more easily than ferroalloy producers, although there are still a lot of technical challenges. There are no ferroalloy producers outside of China moving to produce HPMSM," Hanna added.
Some of the projects in the pipeline include the Manganese Metal Company’s HPMSM Metal to Crystal project in South Africa. Described as a more sustainable process, the Metal to Crystal production method will start with a 5,000 metric ton per annum plant in 2028, followed by a 30,000 metric ton per annum plant, targeted beyond 2030.
In addition to that, Hanna spoke about South32’s Arizona-based Hermosa manganese-zinc project, which received a US$20 million grant from the US Department of Defense in May 2024. The monies have been earmarked for the acceleration of domestic production of battery-grade manganese.
Manganese processing plants have also attracted US government funding.
In September, Element 25 (ASX:E25:OTCQX:ELMT) secured a US$166 million grant from the US Department of Energy under the Battery Materials Processing Grant Program.
The funding will support the construction of the firm’s HPMSM facility in Louisiana. The grant is in addition to US$115 million already secured from offtake partners General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Stellantis (NYSE:STLA).
The feedstock for the Louisiana plant will originate from Element 25’s Butcherbird mine in Australia. In November, the company released a new resource estimate for the planned expansion at Butcherbird.
According to the company, the new estimate registers a 142 percent increase in measured and indicated resources, which now total 130 million metric tons at 10.23 percent manganese.
Additionally, the site hosts a total resource of 274 million metric tons at 10 percent manganese.
Hanna also referenced Euro Manganese (TSXV:EMN,OTCQB:EUMNF), which is developing a project in the Czech Republic using manganese from old mine tailings, as well as looking at plans for a plant in Québec, Canada.
“Firebird Metals (ASX:FRB,OTC Pink:FRBMF) (in) Australia, has adopted an alternative approach,” she said. “They are partnering with a Chinese group to build an HPMSM plant in China, which could eventually be supplied with ore from an Australian mine.”
What trends will drive manganese in 2025?
While these supply chain diversification efforts aim to secure and steady output, Hanna warned of trends to watch in 2025. Top of mind is South32’s Groote Eylandt mine and its ability to restart shipments.
In South Africa, she highlighted national rail operator Transnet's plans for expansion.
“Transnet’s plans for the new port and rail infrastructure at Coega in South Africa are still some way off,” said Hanna. “The company’s performance on the existing rail network and ability to open up the routes beyond traditional miners will influence how much ore needs to be moved via the higher cost rail route.”
Plans remain distant, while inefficiencies in the existing rail network could raise transport costs.
Meanwhile, manganese producer Eramet (EPA:ERA), has faced challenges to its production expansion plans at the Moanda project in Gabon. Hanna noted that Gabon’s production expansion in Moanda faces delays due to weak demand, compounded by past disruptions from railway landslides.
“These (plans) were slowed in Q4 by weak demand,” she said. “Work continues on improvements to the Trans Gabon Railway. Landslides and derailments in the past have disrupted supply causing ore price volatility.”
A resolution to the war in Ukraine could also serve as a catalyst to the 2025 supply and demand story.
“Historically, Ukraine was a significant producer and consumer of manganese alloys. Both have been slowed by the war. In the event of a ceasefire this year, supply is likely to return faster than demand as the large Mauripol steel plant was destroyed during the Russian invasion,” she added.
According to Hanna, key areas to watch as the year progresses are trade actions and carbon taxes.
These include the US investigation into ferrosilicon imports from several countries, as well as potential broad tariffs from the incoming Trump administration.
Elsewhere, the EU’s probe into manganese alloys and ferrosilicon may raise regional prices
“The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is due to come in at the beginning of 2026. Ferromanganese is covered, silicomanganese is not," said Hanna. “There is a lot of uncertainty about the impact of this.”
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Uranium Price Forecast: Top Trends for Uranium in 2025
The uranium market entered 2024 on strong footing after a year of significant price movement, as well as renewed attention on nuclear energy’s role in the global energy transition.
After a hitting a 17 year high in February, the uranium spot price declined and then stabilized for the rest of 2024, highlighting the fragile balance between supply constraints and growing demand.
Uranium ended the year around US$73.75 per pound, down from its earlier heights, but still historically elevated.
Key drivers of 2024’s momentum included geopolitical tensions, particularly US sanctions on Russian uranium imports, and supply-side challenges, such as Kazatomprom’s (LSE:KAP,OTC Pink:NATKY)reduced output. Meanwhile, the energy transition narrative bolstered uranium's importance as countries sought reliable, low-carbon energy sources. The global push for nuclear energy, amplified by new commitments at COP29, has set the stage for continued growth in demand.
Heading into 2025, questions about long-term supply security, the geopolitical reshaping of the uranium market and the direction the price will take are expected to dominate industry discussions.
Investors, utilities and policymakers alike are navigating an increasingly dynamic market, looking to capitalize on nuclear energy’s pivotal role in a decarbonized future.
Uranium M&A heating up, more expected in 2025
According to the World Nuclear Association, uranium demand is forecast to grow by 28 percent between 2023 and 2030. To satisfy this projected growth, uranium majors will need to increase annual production.
They can do so by expanding current mines — if the economics are viable — or by acquiring new projects.
The market began to see heightened merger and acquisition activity in 2024, and the trend is likely to continue into 2025 and beyond, according to Gerado Del Real of Digest Publishing.
“There's no doubt about it in North America," he told the Investing News Network (INN). "Because of the support that this incoming administration (has shown the nuclear sector) I think it is going to continue."
He added, “I think it makes sense for some of these bigger companies to start merging and really create a market for themselves, and then take market share for the next several decades.”
One of 2024’s most notable deals was a C$1.14 billion mega merger that saw Australia's Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN,OTCQX:PALAF) move to acquire Saskatchewan-focused Fission Uranium (TSX:FCU,OTCQX:FCUUF).
The deal, which was announced in July, is currently undergoing an extended review by the Canadian government under the Investment Canada Act. Canadian officials have cited national security concerns as a reason for the extension.
A key factor is opposition from China's state-owned CGN Mining, which holds an 11.26 percent stake in Fission Uranium. The review reflects heightened scrutiny over critical uranium resources amid geopolitical tensions and global energy security concerns. The prolonged evaluation is now set to conclude by December 30, 2024.
On December 18, 2024, Paladin secured final approval from Canada’s Minister of Innovation, Science, and Industry under the Investment Canada Act, clearing the last regulatory hurdle for its merger. With only standard closing conditions remaining, the deal is set to finalize by early January 2025.
Another notable 2024 deal occurred at the beginning of Q3, when IsoEnergy (TSX:ISO,OTCQX:ISENF) announced plans to buy US-focused Anfield Energy (TSXV:AEC,OTCQB:ANLDF). The deal will significantly increase the company's resource base to 17 million pounds of measured and indicated uranium, and 10.6 million pounds inferred.
The acquisition will also position IsoEnergy as a potentially major US producer.
“We'll be looking toward some pretty robust M&A In 2025,” said Del Real.
Companies weren’t the only dealmakers in 2024. In mid-December, state-owned Russian company Rosatom sold its stakes in key Kazakh uranium deposits to Chinese firms.
Uranium One Group, a Rosatom unit, sold its 49.979 percent stake in the Zarechnoye mine to SNURDC Astana Mining Company, controlled by China's State Nuclear Uranium Resources Development Company.
Additionally, Uranium One is expected to relinquish its 30 percent stake in the Khorasan-U joint venture to China Uranium Development Company, linked to China General Nuclear Power.
For Chris Temple of the National Investor, the move further evidences the notion that China is using backdoor loopholes to circumvent US policy decisions for its own benefit.
“China is selling enriched uranium to the US that's actually Russian-enriched uranium — but (China) owns it,” he said. “It's the same as when China goes and sets up a car factory in Mexico, and Mexico sells the cars to the US.”
Geopolitical tensions to amp up supply concerns
Geopolitical tensions are also anticipated to play a key role in uranium market dynamics in 2025.
In the US, the Biden administration's Russian uranium ban will continue to be a factor in the country's supply and demand story. In 2023, the US purchased 51.6 million pounds of uranium, with 12 percent supplied by Russia.
In response to the Russian uranium ban and other sanctions stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin levied its own enriched uranium export ban on the US in November.
With a potential shortfall of 6.92 million pounds looming for the US, strategic partnerships with allies will be crucial.
“If we take a North American — and this includes Canada — (approach), we can find enough supply for the next several years. I am a firm believer that after the next several years of contracts have gobbled up and secured the supply that's necessary, that we're just going to be short unless we have much higher prices,” said Del Real.
Canada is home to some of the largest high-quality uranium deposits, making it a plausible source of US supply.
Continental collaboration was an idea that was reiterated by Temple.
“The biggest beneficiaries, if we're looking at it in the context of North America, are going to be Canadian companies first," he said. "Secondly, some of the US ones that are going to be adding production that have just been idle for years. You've got UEC (NYSEAMERICAN:UEC) and Energy Fuels (TSX:EFR,NYSEAMERICAN:UUUU), two that I follow most closely, and they are starting to ramp back up. It's going to take a while to get there, but they're going to do well.”
While Canadian uranium may be the closest and most accessible for the US market, concerns that tariffs touted by Donald Trump could result in a tit-for-tat battle impacting the energy sector have grown in recent weeks.
Despite the incoming president’s tough rhetoric, both Del Real and Temple see it more as a negotiation tactic.
“The cynical part of me doesn't believe that the tariffs will actually be implemented in any sort of sustainable way, because I'm not a fan. They're not effective. They've been proven to not be effective. They hurt the consumer more than anyone else, and I don't think that the incoming administration is going to want to start by ramping prices up,” said Del Real, noting that it remains to be seen if the tariff strategy is deployed like a “chainsaw or a scalpel.”
Temple also underscored the need for diplomacy and unification between the US and Canada.
“Trump has made a lot of threats about what he's going to do as far as tariffs and whatnot. But again, his whole tariff policy is using a sledgehammer in multiple places when a scalpel in fewer places is appropriate,” he said.
He went on to explain that the tariffs are meant to impact China, but the policy is not well targeted. He believes there needs to be more wisdom and nuance in dealing with China, rather than just relying on overarching tariffs.
More broadly, Temple warned of the potential consequences of pushing China too hard and destabilizing the global economy, a concern he sees as a factor that could be very impactful in 2025.
China's economic troubles, driven by an unprecedented debt-to-GDP ratio, are a looming concern for global markets, Temple added. While much of the focus remains on tariff policies, the bigger issue is China's fragile economic position, with mounting challenges that require more nuanced strategies than punitive measures like tariffs.
If political tensions escalate — especially under a Trump presidency — market confidence could erode further as businesses look to exit China.
Resource nationalism, jurisdiction and green premiums
Resource nationalism is also seen playing a pivotal role in the uranium market next year.
As African nations like Niger and Mali look to reshape their domestic resource sectors, uranium projects in those jurisdictions will have a heightened risk profile.
“I think (jurisdiction) will be critical,” said Del Real. “I think it has been critical.”
He went on to underscore that with equities currently underperforming, using jurisdiction as a barometer is easier.
“The silver lining that I see as a stock picker and somebody that invests actively in the space, is that it's so much easier for me to pick the companies that are in great jurisdictions when I'm getting a discount," said Del Real.
“There's no reason for me to risk my capital in a part of the world where I'm not familiar, where I can't do the type of due diligence that I would like to be able to do,” he went on to explain to INN. “There's no need to be the smartest person in the room and take on disproportionate risk as it relates to jurisdiction geopolitics, because you have a lot of great companies in great, great jurisdictions that are trading for pennies on the dollar.”
Africa is an area that Del Real would be cautious about due to a variety of risks, but moving forward supply from the continent is likely to become a key part of the long-term uranium narrative. According to data from the World Nuclear Association, Africa holds at least 20 percent of global uranium reserves.
For Temple, the scramble to secure fresh pounds could lead to a fractured market. “I think there's going to be a bifurcation in the world, where eastern uranium is going to stay in the east. Western uranium is going to stay in the west. As we ramp back up and some of what's in between, maybe including Africa, will get bid over,” he said.
Adding to this bifurcation could be a green premium on uranium produced using more sustainable methods such as in-situ recovery. This “green” uranium could demand a higher price than recovery methods that rely on sulfuric acid.
“There is more likely to be a green premium, and beyond a green premium it's a matter simply of logistics and shipping costs and all of those things — and, of course, resource nationalism," said Temple.
He also pointed out that globalization is increasingly being reevaluated, with national security and environmental concerns driving a shift toward regional supply chains and localized production.
Even without recent tariff and trade disputes, the push to reduce dependency on global markets has been growing for years, fueled by legislation like the EU’s distance-based import taxes.
This trend suggests a premium on domestically produced goods and resources.
Experts call for triple-digit uranium prices in 2025
With so many tailwinds building for uranium, it’s no surprise that Del Real and Temple expect the price of the commodity to rise back into triple-digit territory sooner rather than later.
“I think that inevitably, the spot price is going to have some catching up to do with the enrichment prices, as well as the contract prices,” said Temple. “It's a no-brainer that we get back in triple digits sooner rather than later in 2025, and ultimately I think you're looking easily in the next few years at US$150 to US$200.”
He cited the rise of artificial intelligence data centers as one of the main price catalysts.
For Del Real, the spot price has found a new floor in the US$75 to US$80 range, with higher levels to come.
“I think we'll finally be at triple digits in the uranium space,” he said. “(It didn’t take a lot of) time to get from US$20, US$30 to US$70, US$80 and then it was a real straight line past the US$100 mark into consolidation,” he said. “I think the utilities are going to start coming offline. And I absolutely see a sustainable triple-digit price in the uranium space for 2025.”
In terms of investments, both Temple and De Real expressed their fondness for UEC. Del Real also highlighted uranium exploration company URZ3 Energy (TSXV:URZ,OTCQB:NVDEF) as a junior with growth potential.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Energy Fuels and Forum Energy Metals are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Oil and Gas Price Forecast: Top Trends for Oil and Gas in 2025
In 2024, the oil and gas space was shaped by several significant trends, with experts pointing to shifting demand, geopolitical turmoil and rising production as key factors for the energy fuels.
While both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude struggled to maintain price gains made throughout the year, natural gas prices were able to register a 55 percent increase between January and the end of December.
Starting the year at US$75.90 per barrel, Brent crude rallied to a year-to-date high of US$91.13 on April 5. Values sunk to a year-to-date low of US$69.09 on September 10. By late December, prices were holding in the US$72.40 range.
Similarly, WTI started the 12 month period at US$70.49 and moved to a year-to-date high of US$86.60 on April 5. Prices sank to a year-to-date low of US$65.48 in early September. In late December, values were sitting at the US$69.10 level.
Natural gas achieved its year-to-date high of US$3.76 per metric million British thermal units on December 24.
What trends impacted natural gas in 2024?
Although natural gas was able to achieve a late-year rally, prices remained under pressure for the majority of 2024.
Natural gas prices fell to a year-to-date low of US$1.51 in February, shortly after the Biden administration enacted a moratorium on new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export permits in the US.
For Mike O’Leary, the president’s decision added further strain to the oversupplied market.
“The gas prices this year have been really under pressure. We just have so much associated gas with the oil that's being produced that we just continue to have a glut of natural gas," O’Leary, who is a partner at Hunton Andrews Kurth, told the Investing News Network (INN) in a December interview.
“And with the moratorium imposed by the administration this year on LNG facilities, it's just exacerbating that glut for the time being, until at some point hopefully the moratorium will be lifted," he continued.
Hope that the moratorium will be removed was dampened in mid-December, when the US Department of Energy released a study on the environmental and economic impacts of LNG exports.
The analysis highlights a triple cost increase for US consumers from rising LNG exports: higher domestic natural gas prices, increased electricity costs and higher prices for goods as manufacturers pass on elevated energy expenses.
"Special scrutiny needs to be applied toward very large LNG projects. An LNG project exporting 4 billion cubic feet per day — considering its direct life cycle emissions — would yield more annual greenhouse gas emissions by itself than 141 of the world’s countries each did in 2023,” the Department of Energy report reads.
This latest development isn’t the only trend impacting American LNG producers.
“A series of warmer-than-expected winters has led to a large supply glut,” explained Ernie Miller, CEO of Verde Clean Fuels (NASDAQ:VGAS). “Natural gas suppliers need to work off those inventories — and see prices return to more rational levels — before they could even think of increasing production.”
After soaring to a 10 year high of US$9.25 in September 2022, prices have been trapped below US$4 since early 2023.
“Natural gas is dealing with a severe oversupply problem that has kept a tight lid on prices, and the only sector within natural gas that has held up well is LNG, which is a very small part of the overall gas market,” said Miller.
What trends impacted oil in 2024?
Oil prices exhibited volatility through the year, but found support on the back of ongoing production cuts from OPEC+ and steady demand recovery in key economies. US oil production is forecast to average 13.2 million barrels a day in 2024, reflecting resilience despite challenges such as declining rig counts.
Geopolitical tensions, including the Israel-Hamas conflict, have added uncertainty to global supply chains.
Oil supply/demand dynamics remain complex elsewhere as well. Chinese oil demand softened in 2024, with lower-than-expected economic performance dampening consumption growth. In contrast, Europe continued its push for renewable energy while navigating supply challenges tied to Russian sanctions.
In the US, Donald Trump’s presidential election victory and his "drill, baby, drill" mantra have created optimism. However, as FocusEconomics editor and economist Matthew Cunningham said, it could be easier said than done.
“Politicians’ rhetoric often divorces from reality, and in Trump’s case this is no different. He probably will succeed in boosting domestic production of oil and gas by issuing more leases for drilling on federal land and scrapping environmental regulations," Cunningham explained to INN.
"Nonetheless, he is unlikely to boost output by as much as his 'drill, baby, drill' comment indicates."
He added, “Historically, the power of US presidents to influence oil and gas production has been dwarfed by that of the market: Ultimately, the price of oil and gas will determine if American shale firms will drill. Our consensus forecast is currently for US crude production to rise by 0.7 million barrels next year, about 3 percent of 2024 output.”
This sentiment was echoed by Miller, whose company Verde Clean Fuels makes low-carbon gasoline.
“While President-elect Trump is likely to remove restrictions from oil producers, it doesn’t mean those producers will necessarily be drilling more wells or increasing domestic production," he said.
"With oil prices hovering around US$70 a barrel — down from US$85 in the spring — oil companies don’t want to create an oversupply scenario driving prices even lower."
Regardless of Trump’s directive, oil producers will likely remain prudent.
“The major oil companies have learned hard lessons from previous cycles — that they need to maintain discipline and a strong balance between supply and demand so they can protect their margins,” Miller added
O’Leary also thinks Trump's campaign promises, if followed through, could add more price volatility to the market.
“Even though he said that, the energy companies here in the states realize they don't really want to open the spigots, because that's going to drive the price down,” said O’Leary.
“If the US did that and overproduced, OPEC would say, 'Well, we need to defend our market share.' So they might just go ahead and open their spigots up, and that would further drive the price down,” he said, adding that Trump’s pro-energy stance could result in more capital for the sector.
How will Trump's tough tariff talk affect oil and gas?
Shortly after his election win, Trump began touting 25 percent tariffs aimed at ally nations Canada and Mexico.
Over several decades, trade between the three nations has become increasingly interconnected, meaning that adding tariffs to all or some goods and services could weaken continental relations and result in escalation.
In 2023, the US imported 8.51 million barrels per day of petroleum from 86 countries.
Canada and Mexico topped the list of countries, with Canada supplying 52 percent and Mexico 11 percent.
“There's a lot of concern that if the oil and gas sector is not exempt — and (Trump) has said nothing about exempting it — that that could drive the prices up for the consumers here in the country, and do just the opposite of what I think Trump really wants to do, which is to fight inflation,” O’Leary commented.
As FocusEconomics editor and economist Cunningham pointed out, there could be a repeat of the 2018 trade war if the tariffs are enacted, which would ultimately hurt the US oil and gas sector.
“During the 2018 trade war with China, Chinese buyers of oil and gas erred away from purchasing US supplies of the fuel. US oil prices fell relative to European ones, and US LNG exports to China fell to zero after Beijing hiked tariffs on the fuel to 25 percent,” he explained to INN.
In October, FocusEconomics surveyed 15 economists on whether Trump will implement a 10 to 20 percent blanket tariff on imports, with two-thirds of respondents saying they think he will.
Geopolitical uncertainty to remain key in 2025
Looking to the year ahead, the experts INN spoke with see geopolitics as a major trend to watch.
“As in recent years, wars in the Middle East and Eastern Europe will continue to support oil and gas prices by unsettling trade flows and raising the risk of supply disruptions. That said, it seems likely that conflicts in both regions will come closer to winding down in 2025 than at the start of 2024,” said Cunningham.
Israel has largely dismantled Hamas’ leadership, while Ukraine faces potential negotiations with Russia following recent military setbacks, as well as the re-election of Trump, who is focused on brokering a deal. These developments could exert downward pressure on oil and gas prices in the coming year, noted Cunningham.
FocusEconomics panelists have cut their forecast for average Brent prices in 2025 by 7.6 percent.
Miller expects some volatility, but also noted the energy sector's resilience.
“The largest spikes in volatility we’ve seen are directly related to the war in the Middle East. However, interestingly, those spikes have been very short-lived, and prices settled back and have been drifting lower for months," he said.
“I think it’s fair to say that, by and large, global energy markets have been remarkably resilient, considering there are two wars going on. That stability has worked as a bit of a tailwind for economies, because oil is among the largest expenses for many industries, including air travel and trucking," added Miller.
For O’Leary, this year’s geopolitical shifts, notably the Ukraine war, have reshaped global energy dynamics. Europe, aiming to reduce reliance on Russian energy, has turned to the global market, securing LNG supply from the US and Australia. This has increased LNG demand, but hasn’t significantly lifted natural gas prices, which remain low.
Meanwhile, companies pursuing greener energy strategies are reassessing due to high costs, with some shifting focus from green hydrogen, produced via electrolysis, to blue hydrogen derived from natural gas, which is more cost effective.
Oil and natural gas trends to watch in 2025
Oil and gas market watchers should be on the lookout for more uncertainty entering 2025.
O’Leary is keeping an eye on the growing energy demands of data centers, which are straining power grids and spurring interest in solutions like hydrogen, nuclear power and co-located facilities. However, delays in permitting new energy infrastructure, such as LNG facilities and pipelines, remain a significant hurdle.
Geopolitically, he believes a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war would stabilize the oil and gas sector, although Europe is unlikely to fully trust Russia as an energy supplier again.
Miller will be watching OPEC+ decisions and actions, as they continue to influence global oil supply dynamics.
The performance of major economies across the US, Europe and Asia will also play a critical role in shaping oil and gas demand heading into 2025. Seasonal weather conditions could have a significant impact, particularly if the US and Europe experience a colder or warmer-than-usual winter. Lastly, any major geopolitical developments involving oil-producing nations could cause unexpected shifts in the market.
Economist Cunningham pointed to several trends that investors should be mindful of.
“Black swan events — those that are rare and difficult to predict, like the wars in Gaza and Ukraine — are, by their unforeseen nature, some of the primary movers of volatility in oil and gas markets,” he said.
“Trump, who styles himself as a master dealmaker, is the main wild card. Trump likes to cloak himself in the guise of a black swan — a 'madman' à la Nixon — that is hard to read and will push his interlocutors to the brink in order to force them to accept his terms," added Cunningham. He also warned that trade wars would send energy prices plunging, while tighter sanctions on oil-producing Iran and Venezuela — two of Trump’s bugbears — could send them higher.
The oil market faces uncertainty on both supply and demand fronts in 2025, he explained.
The cohesion of OPEC+ is under pressure as competition from non-member producers rises, with the group planning to increase production starting in April. On the demand side, emerging markets in Asia are expected to drive crude consumption, though China's economic performance remains a key variable.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Coelacanth Energy, First Helium and Source Rock Royalties are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Rare Earths Market Forecast: Top Trends for Rare Earths in 2025
Rare earths prices saw some gains in May 2024, fueled by positive sentiment over consumer demand in China.
While both dysprosium (Dy) and neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxides benefited from this positivity, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence notes that Dy oxides registered the largest gain, moving 10 percent high month-on-month.
NdPr oxide, which is a larger market compared to Dy, was up a more moderate 0.6 percent.
However, the increases were not to last, and prices soon reverted to a downtrend.
“This was the first-time rare earths prices had recovered after a continuous decline (in 2023), but after a brief recovery, prices are now falling again,” Benchmark pricing and data analyst George Ingall said in a report that month.
Muted demand has weighed on prices, but year-on-year increases in mine supply have also capped price growth.
Global rare earths output has rapidly risen from 240,000 metric tons in 2020 to 350,000 metric tons in 2023, according to US Geological Survey data. The lion’s share of rare earths production continues to be dominated by China, a factor that remains relevant for the industry as the Asian nation continues to flex its control.
East vs. west divide still key for rare earths
Rare earths, which are essential in various high-tech applications, including electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines and electronics, have become a political pawn between the east and west.
Currently, China and the US are locked in a geopolitical struggle over rare earths, with tensions mounting.
In late 2023, China imposed bans on exporting technologies for rare earths processing, tightening its grip on the global supply chain. By mid-2024, reports were circulating that the country's State Council would introduce stricter regulations on domestic rare earths mining, smelting and trading, effective October 1, 2024. The rules would declare rare earth resources state-owned and require companies to maintain detailed records in a traceability system.
The US responded with tariffs on Chinese EVs and critical minerals, aiming to counter China's dominance while bolstering domestic production. These measures underscore escalating tensions, with both nations prioritizing strategic control over rare earths amid growing demand for green technologies and national security needs.
While each nation grapples for supply chain security, Jon Hykawy, president and director at Stormcrow Capital, told the Investing News Network (INN) that a more diplomatic approach is needed.
“There is a potential fork in the path regarding critical materials, more broadly, and rare earths, in particular, when it comes to overall trade strategy between western nations and China,” he said via email.
“By my calculations, if we maintain an integrated trade structure, then, together, we will probably be able to provide sufficient quantities of both NdPr and DyTb (dysprosium-terbium) to achieve our goals in both the automotive and clean energy sectors; NdPr is easy, DyTb is harder, but it can be done.”
However, if western nations decide they want to exclude China, they will face shortfalls.
“If we decide to go our own way in the west, then we can likely deliver enough NdPr to do what we need to do. (But) we are unlikely to make enough DyTb to enable the intended use of all that NdPr," he noted.
Hykawy also took aim at governments not recognizing the increasing importance of DyTb.
“At present, there is some noise and support for ‘rare earths,’ but no one in government seems to understand that the critical materials out of the lanthanide elements is shifting from NdPr to DyTb. Without that realization, the steps that are being taken are not mitigating the correct risks,” he said.
Ex-China rare earths supply in the works
To combat China’s hold on the rare earths sector, the US is heavily investing in the space.
In April 2024, the US Department of Energy earmarked US$17.5 million for four rare earths and critical minerals and materials processing technologies using coal and coal by-products as feedstocks.
“The US has looked to support the development of a domestic rare earth supply chain by financing upstream development of rare earth mining from primary and secondary sources, along with recycling of rare earth-containing products," David Merriman, research director at Project Blue, explained to INN.
“In addition, the US government has provided financing for rare earth processing facilities under development by existing rare earth producers to be located in the US, along with NdFeB (neodymium-iron-boron) magnet production facilities.”
To bolster domestic magnet production against Chinese competition, the US government plans to impose a 25 percent tariff on NdFeB magnet imports from China starting in 2026.
However, since most NdFeB magnets are already embedded in components imported by US manufacturers, the tariff is expected to affect only a small fraction of the country's overall NdFeB magnet consumption, Merriman said.
As the US looks to build out a domestic rare earths supply chain, China has sought to fortify its own.
“China has also taken action to reduce supply chain risk for rare earths, both at the sourcing of feedstocks and the downstream finished product stage,” he said. “China via state-owned companies has invested in several foreign rare earth operations to diversify the origin of rare earth feedstocks, particularly for heavy rare earth-rich feeds.”
As Merriman pointed out, the diversification has been propelled by sourcing issues in 2024.
“The risk of China’s current feedstock sources has been highlighted in 2024 with disruption to feedstock supplies from Myanmar, which accounted for >40 percent of global mine supply of Dy and Tb,” he said.
In October, rare earths supply was interrupted when Myanmar’s Kachin Independence Army seized Panwa, a key rare earths mining hub, following the earlier capture of Chipwe.
The two towns in Kachin state, near China’s Yunnan province, are critical suppliers of rare earth oxides to China.
“Chinese imports of raw materials from Myanmar were 40,000 tonnes during the first nine months of 2024. If that production drops out, there will be a big impact on (heavy) rare earth prices,” Thomas Kruemmer, founder of the Rare Earths Observer, told Fastmarkets.
Rare earths project pipeline facing fragility
Depressed prices through 2023 have weighed on explorers and developers as new projects are financially unviable.
“There are several projects which are at advanced stages of development, though few are able to compete on a cost basis with fully integrated and state-owned operators in China,” said Merriman.
“Financing, metallurgical test work and the development of a sizable terminal market outside of China for semi-refined rare earth products are all barriers to the development of several rare earth projects.”
Weak markets are often fertile ground for M&A and other deals, and 2024 saw some notable examples.
In June, Astron (ASX:ATR) and Energy Fuels (TSX:EFR,NYSEAMERICAN:UUUU) completed the establishment of a joint venture to advance the Australia-based Donald rare earths and mineral sands project.
Since the agreement was penned, development activities at Donald have progressed, including work related to process plant engineering, auxiliary infrastructure, contract tendering and permitting and approvals.
In September, Defense Metals (TSXV:DEFN,OTCQB:DFMTF) signed a memorandum of understanding with the Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC) to support the development of a domestic rare earths supply chain.
Defense Metals and the SRC will explore collaborations on rare earths processing and supply, including using the SRC’s proprietary separation technology for Defense Metals’ products. They aim to negotiate a long-term supply agreement as Defense Metals advances its Wicheeda rare earths project in BC, Canada.
As the year drew to a close, Ucore Rare Metals (TSXV:UCU,OTCQX:UURAF) received a US$1.8 million payment from the US Department of Defense on December 13. The funding will support Ucore’s subsidiary, Innovation Metals, in demonstrating its RapidSX rare earths separation technology at a commercial demonstration facility in Kingston, Ontario.
What factors will affect rare earths in 2025?
In 2025, Merriman sees China’s continued rare earths dominance as a key driver for the sector.
“China maintains a strong influence over rare earth pricing, with most international prices for rare earth trades being based in some way upon Chinese domestic pricing. China has long sought price stability for key rare earths, allowing downstream value-add industries to benefit from reliable and often lower feedstock prices," he said.
“Maintained lower pricing in 2025 will likely help support demand growth for key earth products within the Chinese market, though the concentration of supply originating from China continues to make rest-of-world consumers nervous over becoming reliant on rare earth materials," Merriman also told INN.
For Hykawy, precarious supply outside of China and weak prices will be a focal point in 2025.
"Obviously, we’ve seen significant price drops for Nd, for example," he said.
"That helps the auto sector, but only by the slightest amount. Let’s say there is 2 kilograms of magnet in a main motor in an EV, and I’m likely overestimating. Only 27 percent of that is neodymium metal. The impact of the price change on 500 grams of rare earth is not moving the needle on an EV’s cost," Hykawy added.
He also expressed concern about the supply chain for heavy rare earths. “The bigger, long-term impact I am thinking about is, as Dy and Tb production becomes a bottleneck, how does the industry adjust to a world where the projects that can produce enough Dy and Tb are also making Nd and Pr as a by-product?” Hykawy said.
"To meet the growing demand for heavy rare earths, do the major NdPr producers, like Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC,OTC Pink:LYSCF), MP Materials (NYSE:MP) and the Bayan Obo mine, drop their NdPr output to maintain reasonable prices, or do they keep going and flood the market and drop their own prices to unsustainable levels?" he questioned.
“For some time, NdPr have been the materials in demand. Soon, they might be valuable but overproduced commodities, with everyone scrambling to get the right amount of DyTb for their automotive or wind application.”
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Aclara Resources and Energy Fuels are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Agriculture Market Forecast: Top Trends for Potash and Phosphate in 2025
Fertilizer markets were largely uneventful in 2024, with little volatility.
Given the escalating conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, shipping could have been a major story in 2024; however, most companies altered routes shortly after the conflicts started in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
The other factor that could have impacted fertilizer prices in 2024 was the threat of strike action by Canadian railway unions — this possibility loomed for much of the second and third quarters of the year.
Ultimately, workers were locked out by Canadian Pacific Kansas City (TSX:CP,NYSE:CP) and Canadian National Railway (TSX:CNR,NYSE:CNI), but the Canadian government stepped in and ordered employees back to work.
Although last year remained relatively calm, the same may not be true for 2025.
Donald Trump, who has taken the reins as US president once again, has threatened broad tariffs on all imports from Canada into America. Additionally, only one of the Canadian rail companies has signed a new collective bargaining agreement, leaving the door open to further transportation disruptions between the US and Canada.
How will US tariffs impact fertilizer prices?
Trump administration trade tariffs could be a key factor for the fertilizer sector in 2025.
During his campaign, Trump was vocal about using tariffs to level trade imbalances, often singling out China. However, in December, he began to propose 25 percent tariffs on all goods imported from Canada into the US.
Since he made these statements, there has been no indication of any carve-outs for fertilizers.
Canada is the world’s largest producer of potash, and any tariffs could upset the amount sent to the US, potentially leading to higher prices downstream for farmers and for food supply in general.
In an email to the Investing News Network, Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX, explained that the US is heavily reliant on imports from Canada and Russia, and tariffs on either would be felt immediately.
“Of the near 15 million metric tons (MT) of potash imported to the US last year, almost 13 million of those originated from Canada … Russia, another possible tariff target for the incoming administration, accounted for 1.5 million MT last year. While the US does produce potash, it is not nearly large enough to meet our demand,” he said.
Linville also outlined how reliant Canadian producers are on US ports to reach the rest of the world, noting that 4.4 million MT of potash were exported from the country. Even if Canadian potash isn’t being consumed in the US, it is still subject to tariffs when it crosses the border, making it more expensive for the end buyer.
Phosphate is likely to be affected by tariffs as well. As Linville outlined, the US and four other countries are responsible for 85 to 90 percent of the world’s phosphate supply. Trump placed tariffs on China during his first term in office, while Biden placed Morocco and Russia under tariffs during his time in the White House.
“That leaves Saudi Arabia as the lone wolf that can still target the US unencumbered, and they have plenty of global buyers they can target. At this time, we do not expect this situation to change in 2025, which should keep the US in line to slightly higher than the rest of the world,” Linville explained to INN.
Potash supply ample, phosphate market remains tight
The potash market was relatively quiet in 2024, with more than enough supply to meet demand. Barring any major developments, that scenario is expected to continue through 2025.
“It is very hard to see an outlook that includes much price appreciation in the potash sector. While there have been some fears that supplies would be cut, with the speech by the Belarusian president floating production curtailments in response to low prices, no other major manufacturers have been heard following his lead,” Linville said.
It is uncertain whether that situation will continue past 2025. New projects are in the pipeline, including BHP’s (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) C$14 billion Saskatchewan-based Jansen potash mine, which is set to come online in late 2026. Once completed, the operation will produce 8.5 million MT of potash annually.
Linville also pointed to Russia, which is looking to expand its production.
Meanwhile, China has been working to expand its operations in Laos; however, in early January, the Laotian government ordered the closure of a mine operated by Sino-Agri International Potash after sinkholes formed nearby.
While the potash market remains straightforward and stable, the phosphate sector is more dynamic.
China, which controls 30 percent of the market for the material, began issuing export quotas in the middle of 2022 that were well below the numbers seen in 2021. The cuts came at a time when prices for major fertilizers were near record highs, with phosphate rising above US$1,000 per MT. The country imposed further restrictions on exports in 2023, and then did so again in 2024 as domestic prices failed to stabilize.
There are other factors impacting the supply and demand of phosphate too
“The government (was) slow to respond to a changing market, and stockpiles got close to the levels seen in late 2021, when the agricultural market rioted in response,” Linville said.
The government responded quickly, and has been a major buyer since, but Linville said stockpiles remain lower than normal. Meanwhile, production in the US was hit by the dual impact of hurricanes Milton and Helene.
Unlike potash, there is only one notable phosphate project, the Eigersund project in Rogaland, Norway. Owned by Norge Mining, a subsidiary of Nordic Mining (OL:NOM), the site hosts a significant phosphate resource, alongside vanadium and titanium. If it is successfully brought online, production will still not start at the site for several years.
When it does, the impact on the agriculture industry will be uncertain, with Linville suspecting much of the phosphate will be destined for the battery industry.
Investor takeaway
According to Linville, prices for potash are unlikely to see much change. “Today, the 2025 outlook is more of the same. It is very hard to see an outlook that includes much price appreciation in the sector,” he said.
For phosphate, Linville outlined a picture that is also a continuation of 2024.
“The 2025 outlook continues to paint phosphate at higher price levels. We expect that Chinese exports will continue to be lower than normal and global demand to look decent. I will not be surprised to see a seasonal summer low on values, but any hope of seeing prices down significantly are hard to hold,” Linville said.
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Hempalta is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Geological Mapping and Further Rock Chip Results Enhance Red Mountain Lithium Project, USA
Key Highlights
- Detailed geological mapping completed by consulting expert Professor Phillip Gans of the University of California Santa Barbara.
- Mapping identifies two priority clay-rich and lithium- hosting rock units at Red Mountain.
- Additional rock-chip sampling within ‘Unit J’ identifies a broad zone of mineralisation grading up to 2,100ppm Li.
- Mapped as the most clay-rich rock type. ‘Unit J’ has only been tested by one drill hole, indicating excellent upside.
- Continuous ‘Unit O’ trending approximately north-south through project will underpin the upcoming Exploration Target.
Unit J is a claystone and siltstone dominated rock type located in the west of the Red Mountain Project area which was identified as part of detailed geological mapping undertaken by consultant geologist Professor Phillip Gans of the University of California Santa Barbara. Professor Gans identified Unit J as the most clay-rich rock unit at the Project and recommended a targeted sampling campaign to establish the presence of lithium mineralisation. Subsequently a total of 38 sub-crop and outcrop samples were taken over an area of 800 x 500m of Unit J (Figure 1), with excellent assay results returned from 13 samples grading 1,000ppm lithium or greater. The sampling revealed outstanding exploration potential in this previously unsampled part of the project.
The mapping also identified two priority rock units for future drill targeting – Unit O and the previously mentioned Unit J. Unit O (shown in pale green in Figures 1-3) is dominated by silt and sandstone with clay-rich horizons, is interpreted to be continuous over a 7.8km extent across the Project, and has been tested by 12 of the 13 holes drilled to date, each of which has intersected strong lithium mineralisation7.
The continuous nature of Unit O will underpin a maiden Exploration Target for the Project and inform the drill targeting strategy for the first half of 2025, as the Company advances toward a Maiden Mineral Resource Estimate in the second half.
Astute Chairman, Tony Leibowitz, said:
“With the advice of expert independent consultants, we are continuing to systematically progress the Red Mountain Project. The identification of a new high-grade lithium-bearing unit increases the project’s potential, while the enhanced geological understanding allows the calculation of an Exploration Target, as well as contributes to de-risking of the upcoming drilling campaign, paving the way for a maiden Mineral Resource Estimate in the second half of 2025”
Figure 1. Mapped geology and rock chip lithium geochemistry with red box indicating new lithium zone in Unit J.
Background
Located in central-eastern Nevada (Figure 4), adjacent to the Grand Army of the Republic Highway (Route 6), which links the regional mining towns of Ely and Tonopah. the Red Mountain Project was staked by Astute in August 2023.
The Project area has broad mapped tertiary lacustrine (lake) sedimentary rocks known locally as the Horse Camp Formation2. Elsewhere in the state of Nevada, equivalent rocks host large lithium deposits (see Figure 4) such as Lithium Americas’ (NYSE: LAC) 62.1Mt LCE Thacker Pass Project2 and American Lithium (TSX.V: LI) 9.79Mt LCE TLC Lithium Project3.
Astute has completed substantial surface sampling campaigns at Red Mountain, which indicate widespread lithium anomalism in soils and confirmed lithium mineralisation in bedrock with some exceptional grades of up to 4,150ppm Li1,6 (Figures 1 and 3).
A total of 13 RC and diamond drill holes have been drilled at the project for a combined 1,944.72m. Both campaigns were highly successful with strong lithium mineralisation intersected in every hole drilled7.
Scoping leachability testwork on mineralised material from Red Mountain indicates high leachability of lithium of up to 98%, varying with temperature, acid strength and leaching duration8.
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