Who We Are
The Investing News Network is a growing network of authoritative publications delivering independent, unbiased news and education for investors. We deliver knowledgeable, carefully curated coverage of a variety of markets including gold, cannabis, biotech and many others. This means you read nothing but the best from the entire world of investing advice, and never have to waste your valuable time doing hours, days or weeks of research yourself.
At the same time, not a single word of the content we choose for you is paid for by any company or investment advisor: We choose our content based solely on its informational and educational value to you, the investor.
So if you are looking for a way to diversify your portfolio amidst political and financial instability, this is the place to start. Right now.
World Energy Outlook 2025
Uranium Price 2024 Year-End Review
The uranium market saw a flurry of activity in 2024, beginning with a 17 year price high and finishing with an additional six countries committing to tripling nuclear power by 2050 at the COP29 event.
The energy fuel also caught the attention of major technology companies looking to power artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, and was impacted by geopolitical tensions between the US and Russia.
In addition, the market benefited from growing concerns over future supply. With uranium demand poised to grow globally, the mounting imbalance became increasingly clear in the usually opaque market.
Some companies were inspired to do deals against that backdrop, punctuating 2024 with M&A activity.
While many factors added to uranium’s story throughout 2024, the most impactful trends included geopolitical risk, the accelerating energy transition and future supply concerns.
Uranium spot price breaks US$100
Continuing the momentum of 2023 — when the U3O8 spot price rose 86 percent between January and the end of December — uranium started 2024 at the US$91 per pound level.
Its upward trajectory was fueled by news that uranium-mining major Kazatomprom (LSE:KAP,OTC Pink:NATKY) was facing a shortage of sulfuric acid, a key component of its uranium extraction and production process.
By February 5, the price had risen to US$105.91, marking a nearly two decade high.
The inability to source sulfuric acid prompted the Kazakhstan-based major to revise its annual output guidance.
“Supply side fragility continued to be one of the key themes in Q1, especially the news out of Kazakhstan that production would be significantly lower than expected in 2024 than previously thought,” Ben Finegold, an associate at Ocean Wall, a London-based investment house, said in an email reviewing the first quarter.
In its adjusted 2024 uranium production guidance, Kazatomprom projected a range of 21,000 to 22,500 metric tons on a 100 percent basis, and 10,900 to 11,900 metric tons on an attributable basis.
While in line with the output of previous years, the company had to place plans for a production ramp up on the back burner due to the sulfuric acid shortage and development issues.
Finegold described the issue as "systemic," and said Ocean Wall didn't see it ending any time soon.
However, uranium was unable to last at the US$105 level and had retracted to US$85 by mid-March.
The price continued to consolidate through the year, and found support around US$76. Although the energy fuel has shed 27 percent from its January high, the spot U3O8 price remains in historically high territory.
US bans imports of Russian uranium
Production challenges out of Kazakhstan weren't the only supply and demand issues for uranium in 2024. By May, the war in Ukraine had intensified discussions around restrictions on US imports of Russian uranium.
As tensions ratcheted up, US President Joe Biden banned imports of Russian uranium in mid-May.
“This new law reestablishes America’s leadership in the nuclear sector. It will help secure our energy sector for generations to come," said National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan at the time.
"And — building off the unprecedented US$2.72 billion in federal funding that Congress recently appropriated at the President’s request — it will jumpstart new enrichment capacity in the United States and send a clear message to industry that we are committed to long-term growth in our nuclear sector."
The US has historically relied on Russian uranium, notably through the 1993 Megatons to Megawatts program, which repurposed 500 metric tons of Russian nuclear warhead uranium into reactor fuel.
In 2022, Russian imports still made up 12 percent of US uranium supply, according to the Energy Information Administration. This dependency highlights US reliance on Russian materials for domestic energy needs.
Niger coup aftermath disrupts uranium supply
Niger, the seventh largest uranium-producing country, also faced geopolitical strife when fallout from a military coup upended the country’s uranium sector, adding substantial uncertainty in the uranium space.
European utilities, which are heavily reliant on Nigerien uranium, faced heightened risks, underscoring the vulnerability of supply chains linked to politically unstable regions.
The instability also impacted uranium miners and juniors operating in the region.
In June, French nuclear firm Orano lost its mining permit for Niger's massive Imouraren uranium deposit, which holds over 174,000 metric tons of reserves. While the site’s development was paused in 2015 due to low uranium prices, Niger demanded action as prices surged, warning Orano to begin work by June 19.
Despite submitting a proposal and reopening site infrastructure, Niger revoked Orano's permit, with analysts linking the decision to shifting political dynamics following the July 2023 coup.
In mid-July, the military government revoked exploration company GoviEx Uranium's (TSXV:GXU,OTCQB:GVXXF) rights to the perimeter of the Madaouela mining permit, placing it in the public domain.
In response to the permit withdrawal, GoviEx Uranium has initiated arbitration proceedings against Niger.
In a December 9 statement, the company alleged that Niger failed to meet its obligations under the project's mining agreement, jeopardizing the development of one of Africa's most significant uranium assets.
GoviEx Uranium and its subsidiaries are seeking a resolution through international arbitration, emphasizing the importance of contractual stability in the global uranium industry.
Trump threatens tariffs on key uranium trade partner
In late November, geopolitical tensions began mounting between the US and Canada.
After winning the US election, Donald Trump threatened to levy a 25 percent tariff on services and goods from neighboring countries and USMCA member states Canada and Mexico.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Ontario Premier Doug Ford quickly responded to the tariff threat, underscoring the interconnectedness of both economies, as well as the energy trade between the countries.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, in 2022 the US purchased 40.5 million pounds of U3O8. Canada was the largest contributor, providing 27 percent of the country’s supply.
Fortifying relationships with ally and neighbor states like Canada could prove crucial amid the US ban on Russian uranium imports. If the ban expands to Russian allies, supply from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan — countries that contribute 25 percent and 11 percent to US supply, respectively — could also become precarious.
As pundits debated the potential impact of a tit-for-tat tariff tussle, sector participants forged ahead with deals.
Notably, in early December, NexGen Energy (TSX:NXE,NYSE:NXE,ASX:NXG) secured its first uranium sales contracts with major US utilities, totaling 5 million pounds. The deals cover an initial five year period, a significant milestone as NexGen advances its Rook I project in Saskatchewan, home to the high-grade Arrow uranium deposit.
NexGen Chief Executive Leigh Curyer explained that the agreements highlight the exceptional quality and scalability of Rook I. They also diversify uranium supply and align with market-based pricing strategies.
“Energy demand from reliable sources is increasing by the week with the need to expand existing nuclear energy infrastructure and the construction of power consuming data centres at a time the security of uranium supply is under significant technical and sovereign risk,” said Curyer.
Tech sector turns to nuclear power for AI
Power needs for AI data centers also emerged as a key driver in the uranium market this year.
According to data from Brightlio, an IT service provider, there are more than 8,000 data centers around the globe, accounting for 4 percent of total energy consumption and 1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Data center capacity is projected to triple by 2030, making the sector's long-term energy demands immense. It is estimated that one ChatGPT request could power a lightbulb for 20 minutes.
As the energy demands of AI surge, governments and companies are turning to nuclear power to ensure a reliable, carbon-free energy supply, with supply deals beginning to emerge.
At the end of Q3, Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG) revealed plans to revive the shuttered Three Mile Island Unit 1. The restart is part of a 20 year power purchase agreement with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT).
The supply deal is expected to deliver 835 megawatts of clean energy to the grid, and is also anticipated to generate over US$3 billion in taxes and US$16 billion for Pennsylvania’s economy.
A few weeks later, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) subsidiary Amazon Web Services (AWS) unveiled plans to invest in small modular reactor development. The technology will be used to power AWS' data centers.
AWS will spend US$500 million between both Dominion Energy (NYSE:D) and Energy Northwest to advance the innovative nuclear technology. AWS plans to use small modular reactors to power its data centers.
Then, in mid-October, Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) penned an agreement to purchase power from multiple small modular reactors that will be developed by Kairos Power. The deal will supply up to 500 megawatts of carbon-free electricity to US grids, aiming to support the rising energy demand driven by AI.
Global data center power consumption is forecast to nearly double from 460 terawatt hours in 2022 to over 800 terawatt hours by 2026. As demand from the tech sector expands, concerns over supply deficits have only intensified.
This supply and demand imbalance was highlighted during the November annual general meeting address from Australian uranium company Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN,OTCQX:PALAF).
“With limited investment in new uranium mines, there is a growing supply deficit that is anticipated to increase to over 50 million pounds per annum during the next decade,” said Cliff Lawrenson, non-executive chairman.
“Diversity of supply is also becoming increasingly important as a response to recent geopolitical activities, including the recent US ban on Russian supplies.”
While all the abovementioned themes will continue to impact the uranium market, increased M&A activity is another emerging trend that is likely to play prominently in the year ahead.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Uranium Price Forecast: Top Trends for Uranium in 2025
The uranium market entered 2024 on strong footing after a year of significant price movement, as well as renewed attention on nuclear energy’s role in the global energy transition.
After a hitting a 17 year high in February, the uranium spot price declined and then stabilized for the rest of 2024, highlighting the fragile balance between supply constraints and growing demand.
Uranium ended the year around US$73.75 per pound, down from its earlier heights, but still historically elevated.
Key drivers of 2024’s momentum included geopolitical tensions, particularly US sanctions on Russian uranium imports, and supply-side challenges, such as Kazatomprom’s (LSE:KAP,OTC Pink:NATKY)reduced output. Meanwhile, the energy transition narrative bolstered uranium's importance as countries sought reliable, low-carbon energy sources. The global push for nuclear energy, amplified by new commitments at COP29, has set the stage for continued growth in demand.
Heading into 2025, questions about long-term supply security, the geopolitical reshaping of the uranium market and the direction the price will take are expected to dominate industry discussions.
Investors, utilities and policymakers alike are navigating an increasingly dynamic market, looking to capitalize on nuclear energy’s pivotal role in a decarbonized future.
Uranium M&A heating up, more expected in 2025
According to the World Nuclear Association, uranium demand is forecast to grow by 28 percent between 2023 and 2030. To satisfy this projected growth, uranium majors will need to increase annual production.
They can do so by expanding current mines — if the economics are viable — or by acquiring new projects.
The market began to see heightened merger and acquisition activity in 2024, and the trend is likely to continue into 2025 and beyond, according to Gerado Del Real of Digest Publishing.
“There's no doubt about it in North America," he told the Investing News Network (INN). "Because of the support that this incoming administration (has shown the nuclear sector) I think it is going to continue."
He added, “I think it makes sense for some of these bigger companies to start merging and really create a market for themselves, and then take market share for the next several decades.”
One of 2024’s most notable deals was a C$1.14 billion mega merger that saw Australia's Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN,OTCQX:PALAF) move to acquire Saskatchewan-focused Fission Uranium (TSX:FCU,OTCQX:FCUUF).
The deal, which was announced in July, is currently undergoing an extended review by the Canadian government under the Investment Canada Act. Canadian officials have cited national security concerns as a reason for the extension.
A key factor is opposition from China's state-owned CGN Mining, which holds an 11.26 percent stake in Fission Uranium. The review reflects heightened scrutiny over critical uranium resources amid geopolitical tensions and global energy security concerns. The prolonged evaluation is now set to conclude by December 30, 2024.
On December 18, 2024, Paladin secured final approval from Canada’s Minister of Innovation, Science, and Industry under the Investment Canada Act, clearing the last regulatory hurdle for its merger. With only standard closing conditions remaining, the deal is set to finalize by early January 2025.
Another notable 2024 deal occurred at the beginning of Q3, when IsoEnergy (TSX:ISO,OTCQX:ISENF) announced plans to buy US-focused Anfield Energy (TSXV:AEC,OTCQB:ANLDF). The deal will significantly increase the company's resource base to 17 million pounds of measured and indicated uranium, and 10.6 million pounds inferred.
The acquisition will also position IsoEnergy as a potentially major US producer.
“We'll be looking toward some pretty robust M&A In 2025,” said Del Real.
Companies weren’t the only dealmakers in 2024. In mid-December, state-owned Russian company Rosatom sold its stakes in key Kazakh uranium deposits to Chinese firms.
Uranium One Group, a Rosatom unit, sold its 49.979 percent stake in the Zarechnoye mine to SNURDC Astana Mining Company, controlled by China's State Nuclear Uranium Resources Development Company.
Additionally, Uranium One is expected to relinquish its 30 percent stake in the Khorasan-U joint venture to China Uranium Development Company, linked to China General Nuclear Power.
For Chris Temple of the National Investor, the move further evidences the notion that China is using backdoor loopholes to circumvent US policy decisions for its own benefit.
“China is selling enriched uranium to the US that's actually Russian-enriched uranium — but (China) owns it,” he said. “It's the same as when China goes and sets up a car factory in Mexico, and Mexico sells the cars to the US.”
Geopolitical tensions to amp up supply concerns
Geopolitical tensions are also anticipated to play a key role in uranium market dynamics in 2025.
In the US, the Biden administration's Russian uranium ban will continue to be a factor in the country's supply and demand story. In 2023, the US purchased 51.6 million pounds of uranium, with 12 percent supplied by Russia.
In response to the Russian uranium ban and other sanctions stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin levied its own enriched uranium export ban on the US in November.
With a potential shortfall of 6.92 million pounds looming for the US, strategic partnerships with allies will be crucial.
“If we take a North American — and this includes Canada — (approach), we can find enough supply for the next several years. I am a firm believer that after the next several years of contracts have gobbled up and secured the supply that's necessary, that we're just going to be short unless we have much higher prices,” said Del Real.
Canada is home to some of the largest high-quality uranium deposits, making it a plausible source of US supply.
Continental collaboration was an idea that was reiterated by Temple.
“The biggest beneficiaries, if we're looking at it in the context of North America, are going to be Canadian companies first," he said. "Secondly, some of the US ones that are going to be adding production that have just been idle for years. You've got UEC (NYSEAMERICAN:UEC) and Energy Fuels (TSX:EFR,NYSEAMERICAN:UUUU), two that I follow most closely, and they are starting to ramp back up. It's going to take a while to get there, but they're going to do well.”
While Canadian uranium may be the closest and most accessible for the US market, concerns that tariffs touted by Donald Trump could result in a tit-for-tat battle impacting the energy sector have grown in recent weeks.
Despite the incoming president’s tough rhetoric, both Del Real and Temple see it more as a negotiation tactic.
“The cynical part of me doesn't believe that the tariffs will actually be implemented in any sort of sustainable way, because I'm not a fan. They're not effective. They've been proven to not be effective. They hurt the consumer more than anyone else, and I don't think that the incoming administration is going to want to start by ramping prices up,” said Del Real, noting that it remains to be seen if the tariff strategy is deployed like a “chainsaw or a scalpel.”
Temple also underscored the need for diplomacy and unification between the US and Canada.
“Trump has made a lot of threats about what he's going to do as far as tariffs and whatnot. But again, his whole tariff policy is using a sledgehammer in multiple places when a scalpel in fewer places is appropriate,” he said.
He went on to explain that the tariffs are meant to impact China, but the policy is not well targeted. He believes there needs to be more wisdom and nuance in dealing with China, rather than just relying on overarching tariffs.
More broadly, Temple warned of the potential consequences of pushing China too hard and destabilizing the global economy, a concern he sees as a factor that could be very impactful in 2025.
China's economic troubles, driven by an unprecedented debt-to-GDP ratio, are a looming concern for global markets, Temple added. While much of the focus remains on tariff policies, the bigger issue is China's fragile economic position, with mounting challenges that require more nuanced strategies than punitive measures like tariffs.
If political tensions escalate — especially under a Trump presidency — market confidence could erode further as businesses look to exit China.
Resource nationalism, jurisdiction and green premiums
Resource nationalism is also seen playing a pivotal role in the uranium market next year.
As African nations like Niger and Mali look to reshape their domestic resource sectors, uranium projects in those jurisdictions will have a heightened risk profile.
“I think (jurisdiction) will be critical,” said Del Real. “I think it has been critical.”
He went on to underscore that with equities currently underperforming, using jurisdiction as a barometer is easier.
“The silver lining that I see as a stock picker and somebody that invests actively in the space, is that it's so much easier for me to pick the companies that are in great jurisdictions when I'm getting a discount," said Del Real.
“There's no reason for me to risk my capital in a part of the world where I'm not familiar, where I can't do the type of due diligence that I would like to be able to do,” he went on to explain to INN. “There's no need to be the smartest person in the room and take on disproportionate risk as it relates to jurisdiction geopolitics, because you have a lot of great companies in great, great jurisdictions that are trading for pennies on the dollar.”
Africa is an area that Del Real would be cautious about due to a variety of risks, but moving forward supply from the continent is likely to become a key part of the long-term uranium narrative. According to data from the World Nuclear Association, Africa holds at least 20 percent of global uranium reserves.
For Temple, the scramble to secure fresh pounds could lead to a fractured market. “I think there's going to be a bifurcation in the world, where eastern uranium is going to stay in the east. Western uranium is going to stay in the west. As we ramp back up and some of what's in between, maybe including Africa, will get bid over,” he said.
Adding to this bifurcation could be a green premium on uranium produced using more sustainable methods such as in-situ recovery. This “green” uranium could demand a higher price than recovery methods that rely on sulfuric acid.
“There is more likely to be a green premium, and beyond a green premium it's a matter simply of logistics and shipping costs and all of those things — and, of course, resource nationalism," said Temple.
He also pointed out that globalization is increasingly being reevaluated, with national security and environmental concerns driving a shift toward regional supply chains and localized production.
Even without recent tariff and trade disputes, the push to reduce dependency on global markets has been growing for years, fueled by legislation like the EU’s distance-based import taxes.
This trend suggests a premium on domestically produced goods and resources.
Experts call for triple-digit uranium prices in 2025
With so many tailwinds building for uranium, it’s no surprise that Del Real and Temple expect the price of the commodity to rise back into triple-digit territory sooner rather than later.
“I think that inevitably, the spot price is going to have some catching up to do with the enrichment prices, as well as the contract prices,” said Temple. “It's a no-brainer that we get back in triple digits sooner rather than later in 2025, and ultimately I think you're looking easily in the next few years at US$150 to US$200.”
He cited the rise of artificial intelligence data centers as one of the main price catalysts.
For Del Real, the spot price has found a new floor in the US$75 to US$80 range, with higher levels to come.
“I think we'll finally be at triple digits in the uranium space,” he said. “(It didn’t take a lot of) time to get from US$20, US$30 to US$70, US$80 and then it was a real straight line past the US$100 mark into consolidation,” he said. “I think the utilities are going to start coming offline. And I absolutely see a sustainable triple-digit price in the uranium space for 2025.”
In terms of investments, both Temple and De Real expressed their fondness for UEC. Del Real also highlighted uranium exploration company URZ3 Energy (TSXV:URZ,OTCQB:NVDEF) as a junior with growth potential.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Energy Fuels, Nuclear Fuels, SAGA Metals and Purepoint Uranium Group are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Oil and Gas Price Forecast: Top Trends for Oil and Gas in 2025
In 2024, the oil and gas space was shaped by several significant trends, with experts pointing to shifting demand, geopolitical turmoil and rising production as key factors for the energy fuels.
While both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude struggled to maintain price gains made throughout the year, natural gas prices were able to register a 55 percent increase between January and the end of December.
Starting the year at US$75.90 per barrel, Brent crude rallied to a year-to-date high of US$91.13 on April 5. Values sunk to a year-to-date low of US$69.09 on September 10. By late December, prices were holding in the US$72.40 range.
Similarly, WTI started the 12 month period at US$70.49 and moved to a year-to-date high of US$86.60 on April 5. Prices sank to a year-to-date low of US$65.48 in early September. In late December, values were sitting at the US$69.10 level.
Natural gas achieved its year-to-date high of US$3.76 per metric million British thermal units on December 24.
What trends impacted natural gas in 2024?
Although natural gas was able to achieve a late-year rally, prices remained under pressure for the majority of 2024.
Natural gas prices fell to a year-to-date low of US$1.51 in February, shortly after the Biden administration enacted a moratorium on new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export permits in the US.
For Mike O’Leary, the president’s decision added further strain to the oversupplied market.
“The gas prices this year have been really under pressure. We just have so much associated gas with the oil that's being produced that we just continue to have a glut of natural gas," O’Leary, who is a partner at Hunton Andrews Kurth, told the Investing News Network (INN) in a December interview.
“And with the moratorium imposed by the administration this year on LNG facilities, it's just exacerbating that glut for the time being, until at some point hopefully the moratorium will be lifted," he continued.
Hope that the moratorium will be removed was dampened in mid-December, when the US Department of Energy released a study on the environmental and economic impacts of LNG exports.
The analysis highlights a triple cost increase for US consumers from rising LNG exports: higher domestic natural gas prices, increased electricity costs and higher prices for goods as manufacturers pass on elevated energy expenses.
"Special scrutiny needs to be applied toward very large LNG projects. An LNG project exporting 4 billion cubic feet per day — considering its direct life cycle emissions — would yield more annual greenhouse gas emissions by itself than 141 of the world’s countries each did in 2023,” the Department of Energy report reads.
This latest development isn’t the only trend impacting American LNG producers.
“A series of warmer-than-expected winters has led to a large supply glut,” explained Ernie Miller, CEO of Verde Clean Fuels (NASDAQ:VGAS). “Natural gas suppliers need to work off those inventories — and see prices return to more rational levels — before they could even think of increasing production.”
After soaring to a 10 year high of US$9.25 in September 2022, prices have been trapped below US$4 since early 2023.
“Natural gas is dealing with a severe oversupply problem that has kept a tight lid on prices, and the only sector within natural gas that has held up well is LNG, which is a very small part of the overall gas market,” said Miller.
What trends impacted oil in 2024?
Oil prices exhibited volatility through the year, but found support on the back of ongoing production cuts from OPEC+ and steady demand recovery in key economies. US oil production is forecast to average 13.2 million barrels a day in 2024, reflecting resilience despite challenges such as declining rig counts.
Geopolitical tensions, including the Israel-Hamas conflict, have added uncertainty to global supply chains.
Oil supply/demand dynamics remain complex elsewhere as well. Chinese oil demand softened in 2024, with lower-than-expected economic performance dampening consumption growth. In contrast, Europe continued its push for renewable energy while navigating supply challenges tied to Russian sanctions.
In the US, Donald Trump’s presidential election victory and his "drill, baby, drill" mantra have created optimism. However, as FocusEconomics editor and economist Matthew Cunningham said, it could be easier said than done.
“Politicians’ rhetoric often divorces from reality, and in Trump’s case this is no different. He probably will succeed in boosting domestic production of oil and gas by issuing more leases for drilling on federal land and scrapping environmental regulations," Cunningham explained to INN.
"Nonetheless, he is unlikely to boost output by as much as his 'drill, baby, drill' comment indicates."
He added, “Historically, the power of US presidents to influence oil and gas production has been dwarfed by that of the market: Ultimately, the price of oil and gas will determine if American shale firms will drill. Our consensus forecast is currently for US crude production to rise by 0.7 million barrels next year, about 3 percent of 2024 output.”
This sentiment was echoed by Miller, whose company Verde Clean Fuels makes low-carbon gasoline.
“While President-elect Trump is likely to remove restrictions from oil producers, it doesn’t mean those producers will necessarily be drilling more wells or increasing domestic production," he said.
"With oil prices hovering around US$70 a barrel — down from US$85 in the spring — oil companies don’t want to create an oversupply scenario driving prices even lower."
Regardless of Trump’s directive, oil producers will likely remain prudent.
“The major oil companies have learned hard lessons from previous cycles — that they need to maintain discipline and a strong balance between supply and demand so they can protect their margins,” Miller added
O’Leary also thinks Trump's campaign promises, if followed through, could add more price volatility to the market.
“Even though he said that, the energy companies here in the states realize they don't really want to open the spigots, because that's going to drive the price down,” said O’Leary.
“If the US did that and overproduced, OPEC would say, 'Well, we need to defend our market share.' So they might just go ahead and open their spigots up, and that would further drive the price down,” he said, adding that Trump’s pro-energy stance could result in more capital for the sector.
How will Trump's tough tariff talk affect oil and gas?
Shortly after his election win, Trump began touting 25 percent tariffs aimed at ally nations Canada and Mexico.
Over several decades, trade between the three nations has become increasingly interconnected, meaning that adding tariffs to all or some goods and services could weaken continental relations and result in escalation.
In 2023, the US imported 8.51 million barrels per day of petroleum from 86 countries.
Canada and Mexico topped the list of countries, with Canada supplying 52 percent and Mexico 11 percent.
“There's a lot of concern that if the oil and gas sector is not exempt — and (Trump) has said nothing about exempting it — that that could drive the prices up for the consumers here in the country, and do just the opposite of what I think Trump really wants to do, which is to fight inflation,” O’Leary commented.
As FocusEconomics editor and economist Cunningham pointed out, there could be a repeat of the 2018 trade war if the tariffs are enacted, which would ultimately hurt the US oil and gas sector.
“During the 2018 trade war with China, Chinese buyers of oil and gas erred away from purchasing US supplies of the fuel. US oil prices fell relative to European ones, and US LNG exports to China fell to zero after Beijing hiked tariffs on the fuel to 25 percent,” he explained to INN.
In October, FocusEconomics surveyed 15 economists on whether Trump will implement a 10 to 20 percent blanket tariff on imports, with two-thirds of respondents saying they think he will.
Geopolitical uncertainty to remain key in 2025
Looking to the year ahead, the experts INN spoke with see geopolitics as a major trend to watch.
“As in recent years, wars in the Middle East and Eastern Europe will continue to support oil and gas prices by unsettling trade flows and raising the risk of supply disruptions. That said, it seems likely that conflicts in both regions will come closer to winding down in 2025 than at the start of 2024,” said Cunningham.
Israel has largely dismantled Hamas’ leadership, while Ukraine faces potential negotiations with Russia following recent military setbacks, as well as the re-election of Trump, who is focused on brokering a deal. These developments could exert downward pressure on oil and gas prices in the coming year, noted Cunningham.
FocusEconomics panelists have cut their forecast for average Brent prices in 2025 by 7.6 percent.
Miller expects some volatility, but also noted the energy sector's resilience.
“The largest spikes in volatility we’ve seen are directly related to the war in the Middle East. However, interestingly, those spikes have been very short-lived, and prices settled back and have been drifting lower for months," he said.
“I think it’s fair to say that, by and large, global energy markets have been remarkably resilient, considering there are two wars going on. That stability has worked as a bit of a tailwind for economies, because oil is among the largest expenses for many industries, including air travel and trucking," added Miller.
For O’Leary, this year’s geopolitical shifts, notably the Ukraine war, have reshaped global energy dynamics. Europe, aiming to reduce reliance on Russian energy, has turned to the global market, securing LNG supply from the US and Australia. This has increased LNG demand, but hasn’t significantly lifted natural gas prices, which remain low.
Meanwhile, companies pursuing greener energy strategies are reassessing due to high costs, with some shifting focus from green hydrogen, produced via electrolysis, to blue hydrogen derived from natural gas, which is more cost effective.
Oil and natural gas trends to watch in 2025
Oil and gas market watchers should be on the lookout for more uncertainty entering 2025.
O’Leary is keeping an eye on the growing energy demands of data centers, which are straining power grids and spurring interest in solutions like hydrogen, nuclear power and co-located facilities. However, delays in permitting new energy infrastructure, such as LNG facilities and pipelines, remain a significant hurdle.
Geopolitically, he believes a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war would stabilize the oil and gas sector, although Europe is unlikely to fully trust Russia as an energy supplier again.
Miller will be watching OPEC+ decisions and actions, as they continue to influence global oil supply dynamics.
The performance of major economies across the US, Europe and Asia will also play a critical role in shaping oil and gas demand heading into 2025. Seasonal weather conditions could have a significant impact, particularly if the US and Europe experience a colder or warmer-than-usual winter. Lastly, any major geopolitical developments involving oil-producing nations could cause unexpected shifts in the market.
Economist Cunningham pointed to several trends that investors should be mindful of.
“Black swan events — those that are rare and difficult to predict, like the wars in Gaza and Ukraine — are, by their unforeseen nature, some of the primary movers of volatility in oil and gas markets,” he said.
“Trump, who styles himself as a master dealmaker, is the main wild card. Trump likes to cloak himself in the guise of a black swan — a 'madman' à la Nixon — that is hard to read and will push his interlocutors to the brink in order to force them to accept his terms," added Cunningham. He also warned that trade wars would send energy prices plunging, while tighter sanctions on oil-producing Iran and Venezuela — two of Trump’s bugbears — could send them higher.
The oil market faces uncertainty on both supply and demand fronts in 2025, he explained.
The cohesion of OPEC+ is under pressure as competition from non-member producers rises, with the group planning to increase production starting in April. On the demand side, emerging markets in Asia are expected to drive crude consumption, though China's economic performance remains a key variable.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Coelacanth Energy, First Helium and Source Rock Royalties are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
