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Frontier Energy Limited (ASX: FHE; OTCQB: FRHYF) (Frontier or the Company) engaged independent specialist energy and resources consultancy ResourcesWA, to undertake an assessment (the Report) of Western Australia’s major electricity network, the South West Interconnected System (SWIS).
The Report focused on evaluating potential capacity for large scale connections at existing substations and terminals across the 330kV and 220kV transmission network, from now until 2032.
This Report was commissioned by the Company to gain a better understanding of new large- scale developments on the SWIS, similar to the potential of the Bristol Spring Renewable Energy Project (the Project) in the short to medium term.
The development of multiple, large scale energy projects on the SWIS would affect wholesale electricity prices (if supply outstripped demand) and therefore potential returns on Frontier’s Stage One Project development that is planned to commence in 2024.
The Report however concluded that “there are no other opportunities that exist on the SWIS for the development of a connected generator of the scale of the Bristol Spring Renewable Energy Project in the short or medium term”. The reasons for this include:
- The North Region is limited due to the existing thermal constraints on the 330kV and 132kV transmission networks in this region (see map below for region locations);
- The East Region does not present any opportunities for large scale network connected generation in the near term due to limitations of the 220kV transmission. Limitations on transfer capacity from Merredin west limit new generation in the middle area of the East Region, with new wind developments at Kondinin absorbing transmission capacity between Merredin and Collie;
- The South Region Terminals present immediate and near term opportunities for large scale network connection.
However, within the 330kV network both Oakley and Kemerton are dependent upon existing industrial loads, with Kemerton already at its upper limits due to industrial loads within the Kemerton industrial area.
The Collie region, including the Muja and Bluewaters substations, have substation connection and transfer capacity within the 330kV network, and will present opportunities following the closure of the coal-fired power stations (planned for 2029). However, the region is surrounded by State forests, limiting land availability, with the majority of cleared land currently mined for coal and requiring rehabilitation post 2030; and - Until 2030, only Landwehr Terminal (where the Project is located) can readily accommodate new large scale renewable connections of 250MW or greater. It is expected that a number of Behind the Meter connections will be developed by industry whilst smaller scale renewable and large scale battery storage are expected to be developed in conjunction with existing generators at selected substations and terminals.
Figure 1: SWIS 330kV – 220kV network and Regions
The Report supports the Australian Energy Market Operator annual Wholesale Electricity Market Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO Report), which stated “the urgency of advancing generation, storage, demand side management and transmission projects to bolster reliability and support a rapid and orderly energy transition. Its findings emphasise the need for additional capacity procurement and expedited progress of capacity projects in the SWIS.” The ESOO Report also highlighted demand is forecast to increase significantly over the next decade to at least 78% (Expected Case), with an Upside Case increasing by more than 220%.
A copy of the ESOO "Report is attached to this announcement.
Frontier Managing Director, Sam Lee Mohan, commented: “While we always believed the Bristol Springs Renewable Energy Project was the best undeveloped renewable energy project in WA, we did not appreciate that it is the only project of its size that can access the SWIS network in the short to medium term. This again highlights what a unique opportunity the Company has with the Project, as well as the growing importance of the Project to the State, at a time when energy prices are continuing to rise and energy security is becoming more important than ever.
The next few months are shaping up as the most significant in the Company’s history with multiple major events on the horizon. First, we expect to complete the acquisition of Waroona Energy Inc. in December 2023. This transaction will then be followed by a DFS for Waroona’s Stage One Solar development (120MW) as well as the Peaking Plant Study expected to be released in 1Q24.”
This article includes content from Frontier Energy, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
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Cleantech Market Update: Q1 2024 in Review
“In Q1 of 2024 we saw more of the ‘new normal’ in venture and growth investing — following the explosive years of financing during the pandemic, equity financing levels have essentially leveled out, but have settled at average levels higher than the averages pre-pandemic,” said Anthony DeOrsey, research team lead at Cleantech Group.
He told the Investing News Network (INN) that the period brought investment growth in hard-to-abate sectors such as green steel and cement, and said Q1 was a successful venture quarter in hydrogen production technologies. Additionally, the year's first quarter was marked by decreased levels of investment activity in the Asia Pacific region compared to 2023, when China was the biggest market for cleantech spending, as well as growth in the European market.
At a global level, the discussions and agreements at COP28 late last year highlighted the importance of addressing climate change through a swift and just transition to renewable, sustainable energy sources. This urgency provided a backdrop for evaluating the performance of the cleantech industry in 2024's first quarter.
What trends impacted cleantech in Q1?
US supports cleantech sector with funds and policies
Government investment is key for the cleantech industry to thrive and innovate, and in February, the US Department of Energy announced it would invest US$100 million to support pilot projects and testing facilities focused on carbon dioxide (CO2) removal technologies. This funding is part of the Carbon Negative Shot Initiative, which aims to reduce the cost of capturing and storing CO2 from the atmosphere to less than US$100 per net metric ton by 2032.
The Biden administration also demonstrated its commitment to addressing climate change by allocating US$6 billion to fund 33 projects focused on decarbonizing energy-intensive industries, such as aluminum and other metals mining, cement and concrete production and iron and steel operations. The project is part of the government's Investing in American Agenda, with funding coming from the Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act.
According to a March press release, these efforts are expected to reduce the equivalent of over 14 million metric tons of CO2 emissions annually, comparable to the emissions of 3 million gasoline-powered cars.
Also in March, the Environmental Protection Agency announced a new rule to limit tailpipe emissions on light-duty and medium-duty vehicles starting in 2027. This rule, which the Biden administration has called the “strongest ever” of its kind, is part of the Investing in America Agenda and is funded by the Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act.
Steel and cement industries getting greener
Cement and steel are two of the most-produced materials globally, and are among the world's top sources of CO2 emissions. Now, however, efforts are being made to make these markets greener.
“These traditionally hard-to-abate sectors now have enough of a slate of innovative solutions to start charting a path forward to decarbonization,” DeOrsey said about these industries.
“We are now at an interesting stage in which there are new green steel and cement production technologies that are entering the market (mostly through demonstration plants, but some at commercial scale) — a first 'tranche' of technologies is emerging while the more nascent technologies are seeing more venture support.”
Cleantech Group's take on the “tranches” of green steel and green cement development.
Chart via Cleantech Group.
For example, Brimstone received a US$189 million federal investment to build a new plant to deploy its decarbonized process for producing cement, and Sublime Systems was selected to receive US$87 million to accelerate the construction of a cement factory in Massachusetts. It will reduce carbon emissions by replacing limestone with calcium silicate, thereby producing industry-standard cement with electrochemical reactions instead of applying heat.
DeOrsey also mentioned Skyven Technologies, a California-based startup company that has received US$145 million to deploy steam-generating wind pumps to manufacturing facilities worldwide.
Overseas, H2 Green Steel and Boston Metal have recently made significant advancements in this area. Stockholm-based H2 Green Steel secured 6.5 billion euros to build the world’s first large-scale green steel plant in Europe, with contributions from institutional investors such as the Microsoft Climate Innovation Fund, Mubea and Siemens Financial Services, along with a 250 million euro grant from the EU Innovation Fund. Meanwhile, Boston Metal raised US$20 million in Series C2 funding from Marunouchi Innovation Partners, bringing the total to US$282 million, to expand its presence in Asia and further develop its platform for decarbonized steelmaking using molten oxide electrolysis.
EV market faces challenges and opportunities
The first quarter of 2024 saw notable developments in the electric vehicle (EV) industry unfold.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), facing backlash from investors after reporting Q1 sales figures that were 8.5 percent lower than the previous year, opened its North American Superchargers to Ford (NYSE:F) EVs. To improve profit margins, Tesla also chose to raise the price of its Model Y EVs by 2,000 euros in Europe and by US$1,000 in the US.
In China, EV sales growth has slowed in recent months. However, in March, Chinese EV manufacturer BYD (HKEX:1211) debuted an affordable EV model priced below US$10,000. It is currently not sold in the US, but reportedly has attracted attention from American carmakers. BYD has set an ambitious target to increase its annual sales by 20 percent, aiming to sell 3.6 million units in 2024. The company is aiming for half a million of those sales to be overseas.
Meanwhile, Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), made progress in the autonomous vehicle sector by securing approval to operate its self-driving cars at speeds of up to 65 miles per hour on highways and local streets in specific areas of Los Angeles and the Bay Area. For its part, newcomer Fisker (OTC Pink:FSRN), which launched its first EV in 2023, has encountered substantial difficulties, as demonstrated by the company’s decision to reduce the price of its Ocean SUV by 39 percent. The company was also forced to halt production, is facing a potential bankruptcy and was delisted from the New York Stock Exchange on April 22. These developments highlight the varied experiences and challenges faced by different players in the evolving EV and autonomous vehicle markets.
“An interesting pull-through effect of global EV rollout has been the opportunities it is creating for innovation and growth of new technologies in EV charging — Europe has seen consistent venture activity in this regard over the past few years,” said DeOrsey about trends he's noted in this part of the cleantech sector.
What factors will move the cleantech market in 2024?
Enhanced geothermal gaining steam
As the year continues, where should cleantech investors direct their attention?
“A space to watch is enhanced geothermal,” said DeOrsey. “Despite having significant potential to provide 24/7 firm clean power, challenging project economics have remained a barrier. New technologies in drilling and closed-loop systems have shown promise to better access the latent power potential in hot, dry rock geothermal deposits.”
Recent developments in this space include a US$17 million Series A funding round led by Chesapeake Energy (NASDAQ:CHK) to develop EarthStore, Sage Geosystems’ first commercial geopressured geothermal systems facility, in Houston in Q4 of this year. Also, geothermal energy startup Fervo Energy raised US$244 million in February to further operations at a project in Utah that is aiming to bring 400 megawatts of clean electricity to the grid by 2026.
Quaise Energy, identified by DeOrsey as another geothermal energy company to watch, raised US$21 million in a Series A1 funding round, with new investors Mitsubishi (TSE:8058) and Standard Investments joining Prelude Ventures and Safar Partners. Quaise is developing terawatt-scale geothermal energy by vaporizing rock with MIT-researched techniques that use millimeter-wave microwaves to dig deep geothermal wells.
Other cleantech developments to watch
As the EV market evolves, Tesla is facing a potentially difficult year, with analysts anticipating decreased sales. However, the success of emerging competitors like Xiaomi (HKEX:1810), whose debut of the SU7 model resulted in a 16 percent surge in share value, demonstrates that the EV landscape remains dynamic.
“The subsidies to Chinese EV manufacturers are very significant and (have) allowed for a rapid scaling of EV production and sales, both within China and Chinese-produced vehicles for export,” DeOrsey told INN.
“There is already a high 27.5 percent import tariff on Chinese-built vehicles in the US,” he continued. “The onus will now be on US manufacturers to slash costs through learning effects and use of technology."
In DeOrsey's view, western EV producers should look to leverage new technology in order to reduce expenses. While there are many variables at play, Cleantech Group sees innovation reducing cathode costs for batteries.
He is monitoring Ascend Elements’ US$162 million funding round, which will go toward the construction of North America’s first sustainable cathode precursor manufacturing facility, set to open in early 2025.
Aside from that, a recent partnership between Canada’s Heliene and Georgia-based Suniva marks an important development for US solar project developers, as it enables them to take advantage of a new federal subsidy offered under the Inflation Reduction Act. By joining forces, Heliene and Suniva will produce "Made in USA" solar panels, incorporating Suniva's US-made solar cells into Heliene's US-made solar modules.
Finally, if GE Verona (NYSE:GEV), a spinoff of General Electric (NYSE:GE) that encompasses GE Renewable Energy, GE Power and GE Digital, continues to demonstrate a strong performance on the New York Stock Exchange, it could serve as an indicator of investor confidence in the renewable energy and power sectors.
Investor takeaway
As the world increasingly embraces cleantech, investors can strategically allocate their resources by staying informed on recent and emerging trends, policies and partnerships that are shaping the renewable energy landscape.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Technology or real time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Frontier Shortlists Preferred Banks as Waroona Debt Financing Process Moves into Phase Two
HIGHLIGHTS
- Frontier has commenced Phase Two of the debt financing process, shortlisting preferred banks ahead of additional due diligence to enable submission of binding, credit approved terms
- The Company anticipates credit approved terms to be provided during the next 8 to 12 weeks, assuming successful completion of due diligence
- Phase One of the Debt Financing Process generated strong interest from Australian and international banks, confirming:
- Interest in providing senior debt financing which aligns with the Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) assumptions1
- Acceptance of the selected original equipment manufacturers
- Key due diligence requirements and the proposed third-party service providers to undertake the work to meet those requirements
- Ability of potential financiers to meet the proposed timetable
- The DFS set out the maximum debt carrying capacity and included assumptions regarding amortisation periods and interest rates
- Targeted maximum debt carrying capacity in the DFS was between 65% to 70%, which equates to a debt facility of $200 million to $225 million
- The strategic equity investor process is ongoing, with NDAs in place with a number of Australian and international groups
CEO Adam Kiley commented: “Key to the initial phase of the debt financing process was confirmation of our major funding assumptions, which assumed gearing levels of between 65% to 70%, equating to between $200 million and $225 million, equipment selection, due diligence requirements and the funding timetable.
Confirmation of these key assumptions in such a short time frame is testament to the key attributes of the Waroona Project being well understood by financiers, predominately due to its simplicity and its executability as well the strong returns it delivers.
We have now moved into the second phase of the debt financing process and will be working closely with shortlisted banks towards credit approved terms and complete due diligence requirements in a timely manner.”
Shortlisting banks for debt financing
Following the release of the DFS for Stage One of the Waroona Project in late February, the Company commenced the Debt Financing Process to assist in meeting the funding required for development at the Waroona Project. Image 1 below provides an outline of the key outcomes and indicative timing for each phase of the process.
Image 1: Waroona Project – Debt Financing Process and indicative timing
As highlighted above, Phase One of the Debt Financing Process involved the Company’s debt advisor, Leeuwin Capital Partners, seeking expressions of interest from financial institutions to participate in the Debt Process.
Click here for the full ASX Release
This article includes content from Frontier Energy, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
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