Stonegate Capital Partners Updates Coverage on Fold Holdings Inc. 1Q26

Fold Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: FLD): Stonegate Capital Partners Updates Coverage on Folding Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: FLD). Fold's 1Q26 reflected bitcoin-market-driven pressure on activity, but the quarter did not change the core thesis; it shifted the FY26 focus toward conversion and scaling across products now in market. Revenue declined 21.1% yy to $5.6M as transaction volume fell 32% yy to $172M, while verified accounts approached 85K with close to 2K net adds. Net loss was $(29.2)M and adj. EBITDA was $(5.8)M, though GAAP results were affected by bitcoin treasury fair value changes and financing-related items. Operating expenses declined 19% yy to $13.4M, supported by lower direct costs, lower stock-based compensation, and lower professional fees. Management noted February marked the bottom across most core KPIs, with early improvement as bitcoin recovered. We view 1Q26 as market driven pressure in transaction-linked activity, while Fold's broader platform strategy moved closer to commercial validation.

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Key Takeaways:

• 1Q26 advanced Fold's transition toward platform-led monetization. Account growth, opex discipline, and concurrent product launches support a broader revenue model beyond transaction activity.
• Credit card execution is the primary FY26 catalyst. With 1,000+ cards live and an ~80K waitlist, cohort spend, engagement, credit performance, and funding capacity will drive the setup.
• Capital structure simplification improves strategic flexibility. Extinguishing the convertible notes, while retaining bitcoin treasury exposure, strengthens Fold's ability to scale credit, gift card, and business channels.

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About Stonegate

Stonegate Capital Partners is a leading capital markets advisory firm providing investor relations, equity research, and institutional investor outreach services for public companies. Our affiliate, Stonegate Capital Markets (member FINRA) provides a full spectrum of investment banking, equity research and capital raising for public and private companies.

Source: Stonegate, Inc.

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