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Cobalt Investor Report
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Cobalt Market Forecast and Cobalt Stocks to Buy in 2025
Table of Contents
Cobalt Market 2024 Year-End Review
Cobalt Market 2024 Year-End Review
Cobalt prices started 2024 trading at the US$29,151.50 per metric ton (MT) level, the highest price point the battery metal achieved for the year. By December, it had contracted by 16.68 percent to US$24,287.90.
Prices remained under pressure due to oversupply, with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) maintaining its dominant position as the world’s largest producer. Meanwhile, efforts to diversify supply chains and reduce reliance on the DRC gained momentum, with new projects and funding infusions announced in Canada and the US.
On the demand side, the rise of lower-cobalt battery chemistries weighed on consumption. Lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries continued gaining market share globally, pressuring cobalt’s role in the electric vehicle (EV) sector.
However, cobalt’s use in high-performance batteries for smartphones and other electronics remained resilient, offering a counterbalance to declines elsewhere. Geopolitics and policy added another layer of complexity, with China expanding its influence in African mining regions and western nations pursuing stricter supply chain transparency laws.
These dynamics are expected to shape cobalt’s role in the critical metals market into 2025 and beyond, as stakeholders grapple with the metal’s evolving importance in a decarbonized economy.
2024 cobalt supply and demand trends
Residual oversupply from 2023 prevented any price positivity in the cobalt market through 2024.
According to the US Geological Survey's annual cobalt report, mine supply of the battery metal ballooned in 2023, growing 16.75 percent year-on-year, from 197,000 MT in 2022 to 230,000 MT in 2023.
Over the last three years, annual mine supply has soared, from 142,000 MT to 230,000 MT, up 61 percent.
For 2023, 170,000 MT were mined in the DRC; the African nation is home to the five largest cobalt mines in the world. These high-grade areas have attracted the attention of Chinese mining companies, particularly China Molybdenum (SHA:603993,OTC Pink:CMCLF), which is one of the largest cobalt producers in the DRC and the world.
In recent years, cobalt-mining practices in the DRC have come under fire from international rights groups concerned that artisanal and small-scale cobalt-mining operations are using child labor.
In October 2024, the US Department of International Labor concluded a six year program entitled Combating Child Labor in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s Cobalt Industry (COTECCO).
Its key achievements include supporting the creation of an inter-ministerial commission to monitor child labor, and setting up a provincial commission in Lualaba. Since its inception in 2018, the project has trained 458 stakeholders from the government, civil society and the private sector on fighting child labor. It has introduced tools like the Bureau of International Labor Affairs' Comply Chain to 28 mining entities in Lualaba and Haut-Katanga.
Additionally, COTECCO has collaborated with the DRC government to establish a Child Labor Monitoring and Remediation System (CLRMS), training 110 officials to operate it. By March 2024, the CLRMS database had registered 5,346 children, and was officially handed over to the mines ministry for sustained management.
Cobalt fundamentals tightly tied to EV sector
Combating child exploitation in the cobalt supply chain will be paramount moving forward, as demand from the EV sector alone is expected to increase substantially, rising by 60 to 70 percent by 2040.
The DRC is projected to play a vital role in supplying the 214,000 MT of cobalt demand expected by 2030.
“It’s hard to understate just how much demand will be added to the cobalt market by the EV industry,” said Roman Aubry, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence pricing analyst, in an April email.
“Already it has become the largest demand sector, and its dominance is only set to grow.”
In 2024, global EV sales reached a third consecutive record high, with China leading the surge. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported a 5.3 percent increase in passenger vehicle sales, totaling 23.1 million units, with EVs and hybrids accounting for 47.2 percent of the market — a 40.7 percent rise from the previous year.
Elon Musk's Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), a dominant player in the EV sector, experienced a 1.1 percent decline in worldwide sales, delivering 1.79 million vehicles compared to 1.81 million in 2023.
This downturn was attributed to increased competition and market saturation.
However, other automakers reported significant growth. General Motors (NYSE:GM), for instance, achieved a 50 percent increase in its Q4 EV sales, driven by models like the Chevrolet Equinox EV SUV.
Analysts suggest that while Tesla's sales dip impacted overall market perceptions, the broader EV market remained robust, with traditional manufacturers gaining traction.
Another notable development in the EV sector in 2024 was the April announcement from Honda (NYSE:HMC) that it will invest C$15 billion to build a comprehensive EV value chain in Ontario, Canada.
The plans include an EV assembly plant and a standalone battery manufacturing facility. Joint ventures will add a cathode active material processing plant and a separator plant. The assembly plant aims to produce 240,000 vehicles annually, while the battery facility will have a capacity of 36 gigawatt hours.
Government funding supporting cobalt market growth
Due to its critical mineral designation, the cobalt sector has been the recipient of government funding.
In May, the US and Canada partnered for a co-investment to enhance the North American critical minerals supply chain. The collaboration will benefit Fortune Minerals (TSX:FT,OTCQB:FTMDF) and Lomiko Metals (TSXV:LMR,OTCQB:LMRMF), with the latter set to receive up to C$7.5 million from the Canadian government, matched by an additional US$6.4 million from the US Department of Defense’s Defense Production Act Investments Office.
The funding is part of the Canada-US Energy Transformation Task Force.
“Canada is positioning itself as a global leader in the supply of responsibly sourced critical minerals for the green and digital economy,” said Jonathan Wilkinson, Canada's minister of energy and natural resources.
“Through our work with the United States and other allies, we are developing secure critical minerals value chains that will power a prosperous and sustainable future," he added.
In August, Electra Battery Materials (TSXV:ELBM,NASDAQ:ELBM) secured a US$20 million grant from the US Department of Defense to aid in the construction and commissioning of “North America’s only cobalt sulfate refinery."
“Electra is committed to strengthening the resiliency of the North American battery supply chain,” said Electra CEO Trent Mell about the Ontario-based refinery. “We are grateful to the US Department of Defense for its support. On issues of national security, there are no borders between Canada and the United States. We are proud to partner with the US Government to build a strong North American supply chain for critical minerals.”
Cobalt catalysts to watch in 2025
Despite positive catalysts on the horizon, the cobalt market is facing immense pressure from substitution.
The shift toward LFP batteries, which omit cobalt, has drastically reduced demand in EV battery production.
By the third quarter of 2024, LFP batteries dominated 75.2 percent of the market, while nickel-manganese-cobalt batteries fell to 24.6 percent, according to data from S&P Global.
The declining role of cobalt in EV batteries was further highlighted in correspondence between China's CMOC (OTC Pink:CMCLF,SHA:603993), the world’s largest cobalt-mining company, and Bloomberg in late 2024.
“We predict that EV batteries will never return to the era that relies on cobalt,” said Zhou Xing, a spokesperson for CMOC. “Cobalt is far less important than imagined.”
However, even though cobalt's future in EVs looks clouded, demand persists in the consumer electronics segment, which relies on lithium-cobalt-oxide batteries, and in superalloys for aerospace and military applications.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Fortune Minerals is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Cobalt Market Forecast: Top Trends for Cobalt in 2025
Oversupply and shifting battery chemistries are set to define the cobalt market in 2025. Prices — subdued by excess supply since 2023 — are expected to remain stable, with limited volatility.
The rise of lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries, particularly in China, continues to suppress demand for cobalt chemicals, challenging sulfate refiners. Meanwhile, on the supply side, Indonesia's rapid expansion in mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) production offers an alternative to the contentious Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Even so, the DRC is expected to remain the primary producer of cobalt in the near to medium term.
“Oversupply has been the dominant driving force for cobalt prices since 2023, and this is likely to persist in 2025,” Roman Aubry, price analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, said. “As this single factor is so overwhelming, it has stifled much of the volatility in the market in 2024, and it is likely this will be the case in 2025 as well.”
Cobalt demand projected to rise long term
Critical minerals have become a key focus as nations look to fortify domestic supply chains. The cobalt sector’s production concentration in the DRC makes it even more prone to geopolitical upheaval.
According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2024 Global Critical Minerals Outlook, the cobalt market has a heightened geopolitical risk rating because 84 percent of production is focused in a single country.
Despite the current cobalt glut, the IEA is projecting that demand will soar from 213,000 metric tons in 2023, rising to 344,000 metric tons in 2030 and then to 454,000 metric tons in 2040.
This steep uptick has prompted the IEA to project a potential 16 percent shortfall by 2035.
Although countries like Indonesia and Australia are starting to see cobalt sector growth, experts agree that the DRC will continue to be the dominant player in the industry into the future.
“The DRC is going to maintain its position for the foreseeable future; however, Indonesian MHP is rapidly growing as an alternative source of cobalt in the market. In line with this, we’ve seen an influx of cobalt metal from Indonesia becoming more prevalent in recent months, being aggressively marketed by Indonesian producers,” said Aubry.
Those circumstances mean Indonesia could capture a larger piece of market share this year.
“With CMOC (OTC Pink:CMCLF,SHA:603993) not planning any new expansions this year, it is unlikely we'll see any significant growth from the DRC in cobalt production in 2025,” he added.
Refinement capacity will also play an important role in meeting growing cobalt demand.
Australia’s Cobalt Blue Holdings (ASX:COB,OTC Pink:CBBHF) is advancing plans for the Kwinana cobalt refinery near Perth, proposing an initial production capacity of 3,000 metric tons of cobalt sulfate and 500 metric tons of nickel metal annually. Construction is slated to commence in H1 2025, with completion expected within 12 months.
Changing battery chemistries threaten cobalt demand
In 2024, record-breaking global electric vehicle (EV) sales helped solidify cobalt's role in the energy transition. China is spearheading a 40.7 percent surge in EV and hybrid adoption, supported by aggressive pricing and subsidies.
China remained the largest growth market as domestic automakers outpaced foreign rivals. European sales rebounded from setbacks early in the year, with stricter emissions penalties set to drive further adoption in 2025.
Despite US market uncertainties, growing EV demand globally will sustain cobalt's importance, although supply chain challenges and alternative battery technologies may influence its trajectory.
“As LFP becomes increasingly dominant in China, sentiment for cobalt chemicals used in batteries has turned more bearish,” Aubry said. “A downturn in demand may put sulfate refiners under additional pressure, particularly at a time where the current market dynamics already present significant challenges due to prices.”
Rising copper, nickel production boosts cobalt glut
Another factor that could lead to additional cobalt surpluses is the production correlation with copper and nickel.
A November 2024 Fastmarkets report notes that 76 percent of global cobalt supply comes from copper-cobalt mines in the DRC. This by-product status exposes cobalt to market dynamics in the copper space.
In 2024, copper production in the region was on the rise, which in turn weighed on the cobalt market.
“But with cobalt demand remaining decidedly sluggish, copper’s upward trajectory will continue to fuel cobalt oversupply and, combined with the fact that copper production is poised to expand further, this will keep cobalt prices under pressure,” the Fastmarkets report reads.
A similar picture is playing out in Indonesia, where cobalt is mined as a by-product of nickel.
Indonesia’s rise as a cobalt powerhouse is poised to reshape the market, fueled by its booming MHP production. In 2024, the country supplied 10 percent of global cobalt, up from 7 percent in 2023, driven by Chinese-backed investments in nickel laterite ore projects using high-pressure acid leach technology.
Despite weak nickel prices, these projects are ensuring long-term cobalt output growth, with MHP-derived cobalt production projected to rise by a sizeable 17 percent in 2025.
Producers are increasingly favoring cobalt metal over sulfate due to higher profitability and easier storage.
Additionally, cobalt from Indonesia may be immune to US tariffs — that's in contrast to Chinese cobalt, which faces a 25 percent import tariff, as per Fastmarkets. “That possibility could raise concerns about shifting global supply dynamics and increase the pressure on cobalt prices," the firm explains.
Due to these factors, Fastmarkets is expecting a continued surplus of 21,000 metric tons in 2025, a slight decrease from 2024’s glut of 25,000 metric tons. Increased copper and nickel production is driving this trend, but challenges loom.
Weak nickel pricing, driven by Indonesia’s rapid growth, is squeezing producers in higher-cost regions like Australia and Canada, threatening project viability. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions, trade barriers and a strong US dollar could further disrupt cobalt flows, especially from Chinese-backed Indonesian operations. The market’s trajectory will depend heavily on economic conditions, trade dynamics and evolving technologies, the report concludes.
Ethical supply concerns continue
As the global mining sector faces increased scrutiny for its extraction practices, the DRC’s cobalt industry has proven to be a focal point for sustainability and social governance concerns.
Child labor at artisanal and small-scale cobalt mines in the country has drawn international attention, prompting the US Department of International Labor to establish a program to fight cobalt-related child labor in the DRC.
Since its inception in 2018, the project has trained 458 stakeholders from the government, civil society and the private sector on fighting child labor. Its other accomplishments include introducing tools like the Bureau of International Labor Affairs' Comply Chain to 28 mining entities in Lualaba and Haut-Katanga.
While these are moves in the right direction, the long-running negative attention that the DRC’s cobalt sector has faced could be a deterrent to new capital entering the country.
“Alternatives to the DRC are likely to become more attractive to investors if it can sidestep other potential pitfalls, such as high refining energy costs. Until a more sustainable supply chain is embedded, or there are more substantial regulations implemented to limit the prevalence of artisanal mining, prices are unlikely to see a premium for sustainably sourced cobalt in the immediate term,” Aubry told the Investing News Network.
Trump’s tough tariff talk
Although Indonesian supply may be exempt from current US trade rules, that could change in the near term.
The re-election of US President Donald Trump has introduced significant uncertainty into the cobalt market, particularly concerning the future of electric vehicle (EV) policies and potential trade measures.
Industry participants have expressed concerns that Trump may reverse existing EV legislation, notably the Inflation Reduction Act, which has been instrumental in channeling approximately US$312 billion into US EV production and infrastructure. The American president has previously indicated intentions to "end the electric vehicle mandate on day one" in a bid to "save the auto industry from complete obliteration."
Despite these statements, the proliferation of EV manufacturing facilities in predominantly Republican states suggests that any policy reversals could face resistance due to the economic benefits they bring to local communities.
Stricter tariffs on Chinese-origin cobalt and EVs is also a concern among market watchers.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Fortune Minerals and Mawson Finland are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Top 3 Canadian Cobalt Stocks in 2024
The first months of 2024 saw cobalt take a bearish stance, constrained by excess supply and eroding demand.
Cobalt prices faced many headwinds at the beginning of the year, and they pulled the value of the battery metal down by 2.01 percent between January and the end of March. After starting the calendar year at US$29,134 per metric ton (MT), cobalt metal prices had fallen to US$28,548 by the end of the three month session.
The sluggish market conditions were attributed to reduced demand from the battery sector and oversupply of material. As a result, prices remained under pressure, with limited signs of improvement expected in the near term.
“Electric vehicle and electronic batteries still comprise a large portion of cobalt demand, although the power battery production landscape in China encountered challenges in the past year,” a January report from S&P Global Commodity Insights states. “A notable decline in growth rates, particularly in the production of batteries with a nickel-manganese-cobalt chemistry, has led market sources to hold a cautiously optimistic outlook for Q1.”
Concerns over the economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have also added to the market uncertainty.
The first 30 days of Q2 haven’t offered relief to the cobalt market, with prices falling below US$28,000 in mid-April.
These tough market conditions were reflected in the performance of the sector’s exploration and mining companies. However, despite the challenges, three companies have been able to make gains in the current market.
Below is a look at the three top cobalt stocks on the TSX and TSXV by share price performance so far this year. All year-to-date and share price information was obtained on May 1, 2024, using TradingView’s stock screener, and all companies listed had market caps above C$10 million at that time. Read on to learn more about their activities.
1. Electra Battery Materials (TSXV:ELBM)
Year-to-date gain: 15.38 percent; market cap: C$32.94 million; current share price: C$0.60
Canada-based exploration and development company Electra states it is actively involved in processing low-carbon, ethically sourced battery materials. The company is working to develop North America's sole cobalt sulfate refinery while operating a black mass recycling demonstration plant. Black mass is obtained from end-of-life lithium-ion batteries.
Electra is also progressing exploration efforts at its Iron Creek cobalt and copper project in the Idaho Cobalt Belt, and expanding its cobalt sulfate processing capabilities in Bécancour, Québec.
In early February, Electra released an update on its black mass demonstration plant near Toronto. The overview notes that recent optimizations have enhanced the recovery of lithium, nickel, cobalt and other essential minerals, improving the quality of saleable end products. Further optimization studies will include metal recovery from internal recycling streams, and Electra said preliminary lab results suggest positive prospects for isolating cobalt from nickel in the leach liquor.
On February 9, the company received a C$5 million investment from the Canadian government for the construction of its cobalt sulfate refinery. The refinery, which will be situated in Temiskaming Shores, Ontario, aims to supply roughly 5 percent of the world's battery-grade cobalt essential for electric vehicles. The C$5 million grant is being dispersed through the Federal Economic Development Initiative for Northern Ontario.
“Canada has surpassed China as the top jurisdiction in the global battery supply chain, given its strength in raw materials mining and processing,” Trent Mell, Electra’s CEO, said. “Today’s investment from the Government of Canada means that Northern Ontario will seize the economic opportunities created by Canada’s transition to a green economy.”
Shares of Electra reached a year-to-date high of C$0.97 on February 15.
2. FPX Nickel (TSXV:FPX)
Year-to-date gain: 6.67 percent; market cap: C$87.67 million; current share price: C$0.32
FPX Nickel is currently advancing its Decar nickel district in BC, Canada. The property comprises four key targets, with the Baptiste deposit being the primary focus, alongside the Van target.
FPX Nickel also has three other nickel projects in BC and one in the Yukon, Canada. While nickel extraction is its main focus, the company plans to produce cobalt as a by-product from future mining operations at the Baptiste site.
In mid-January, FPX secured a C$14.4 million strategic equity investment from Sumitomo Metal Mining Canada, a subsidiary of Japanese nickel miner Sumitomo Metal Mining (TSE:5713).
Martin Turenne, president and CEO of FPX, noted that Sumitomo's investment is a substantial validation of Baptiste, highlighting Sumitomo Metal Mining's expertise in nickel production and supply chain diversification.
Shortly after the Sumitomo news, FPX announced the “company’s three strategic investors have fully exercised their participation rights to re-establish their respective initial ownership interest in FPX’s issued and outstanding common shares.” The exercise resulted in the completion of an additional private placement, where a total of 8,981,971 common shares were issued to the strategic investors at C$0.48 each, generating C$4,311,346 in proceeds.
With approximately C$45 million on hand, including the proceeds, FPX expects to be fully funded for its 2024 and 2025 activities. Shares of FPX spiked following the news and reached a year-to-date high of C$0.40 on February 5.
Investor Kit
3. Sherritt International (TSX:S)
Year-to-date gain: 5 percent; market cap: C$123.16 million; current share price: C$0.31
Sherritt International is a leading global player in hydrometallurgical processes for nickel and cobalt extraction. At its Moa joint venture, located in Cuba, Sherritt is pursuing a 25 year expansion program to boost annual mixed sulfide precipitate output by 20 percent, equating to 6,500 MT of nickel and cobalt.
On January 15, Sherritt announced it was implementing organization-wide cost-cutting measures to enhance operations in response to market conditions. Part of these efforts included a corporate restructuring and a 10 percent reduction in Canadian staff. In February, the company released its 2023 results and 2024 guidance. In the report, Sherritt notes that total cobalt production on a 100 percent basis was 2,876 MT, “slightly below their annual guidance ranges.”
For 2024, the company is anticipating an uptick in nickel and cobalt production “due to increased feed of mixed sulphides from the Moa mine site to the refinery as a result of access to additional ore sources.”
Sherritt shares marked a year-to-date high on April 10 of C$0.36.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: FPX Nickel is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
Sherritt Ends 2024 with Robust Operating Results in Line with Guidance; Received $30 Million from the Cobalt Swap and $13 Million of Dividends from Power
Sherritt International Corporation ("Sherritt" or the "Corporation") (TSX:S) today announced its fourth quarter and full year 2024 production results. Sherritt also announced it received total distributions of $29.8 million from the Cobalt Swap agreement (including both Sherritt's and GNC's redirected share), composed of $23.7 million in cash and 223 tonnes of finished cobalt with an in-kind value of $6.1 million, and in its Power division, Sherritt received dividends of $7.0 million in Canada during the quarter, bringing the total to $13.0 million for the year.
Leon Binedell, President and CEO of Sherritt commented, "Our operational performance in 2024 was a resounding success in the face of significant headwinds. Our production results at both our Metals and Power divisions were within our respective guidance ranges despite numerous external challenges. We successfully navigated extraordinary hurdles including hurricanes, an earthquake, and nationwide power outages in Cuba, as well as rail and port labour disruptions in Canada. Despite materially lower cobalt by-product credits, our net direct cash cost is also expected to meet our annual guidance thanks in part to the numerous cost reduction initiatives implemented throughout 2024.
Sherritt managed to navigate the multi-year low metal prices and external challenges effectively to maximize the potential for Cobalt Swap distributions and was able to receive a significant $30 million distribution in the quarter. Furthermore, our ongoing efforts to optimize our Power division and access additional gas for electricity production resulted in a six-year high in annual production and materially higher dividends in Canada with $13 million received during the year."
Mr. Binedell added, "The success we achieved despite these challenges faced during 2024 demonstrates Sherritt's ingenuity and resilience. We take pride in the accomplishments we delivered together with our Cuban partners and commend our team for their collective efforts contributing to the notable success of our performance. Looking ahead, we remain committed to driving operational excellence and delivering value through our continued focus on efficiency and cost management and delivering on our growth and other strategic initiatives."
2024 Production Results
Production volumes | Q4 2024 Actual | FY2024 Actual | 2024 Guidance |
Moa Joint Venture ("Moa JV") (tonnes, 100% basis) | |||
Nickel, finished | 7,705 | 30,331 | 30,000 – 32,000 |
Cobalt, finished | 930 | 3,206 | 3,100 – 3,400 |
Electricity (GWh, 33⅓% basis) | 171 | 816 | 775 – 825 |
Metals
In 2024, Sherritt's finished nickel and cobalt production were within their respective guidance ranges. The completion of the Slurry Preparation Plant ("SPP") significantly enhanced mixed sulphides production efficiencies, ensuring a consistent feed to the refinery. This helped mitigate challenges encountered during the year, such as the rail labour disruption in Canada, as well as the earthquake, hurricanes and nationwide power outages in Cuba. Full year 2024 net direct cash cost ("NDCC") 1 is expected to be within the previously disclosed guidance range of US$5.50 to US$6.00 per pound of nickel sold, marking a notable year-over-year improvement despite materially lower cobalt by-product credits.
Power
Sherritt's 2024 electricity production was within its guidance range on the strength of additional gas from new gas wells, including the new well that was put into production during the fourth quarter.
During Q4 2024, as a result of the nationwide power outages in Cuba and challenges facing the national power grid, the government agency Unión Eléctrica ("UNE") required Energas S.A. ("Energas") to operate the Varadero facility in frequency control to help support the stability of the grid, which reduced the power generation volume by approximately 25 GWh (Sherritt's share). Energas was fully compensated for this reduction under the same terms and conditions outlined in its contract. Energas expects that the Varadero facility will operate in frequency control throughout 2025 with an estimated reduction in electricity volume of approximately 150 GWh. Energas will continue to be fully compensated for this reduction and therefore Sherritt expects there will be no impact to Power's Adjusted EBITDA 1 , earnings from operations or dividends from Energas to Sherritt in Canada. Energas' other facilities are expected to continue operating as usual.
Sherritt expects to report its complete operational and financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2024 on February 5, 2025 after market close. The Corporation's 2025 guidance for production, NDCC 1 , unit operating costs 1 and spending on capital 1 will also be provided with year-end 2024 results. Sherritt's guidance for Power will reflect the Varadero facility operating in frequency control during 2025.
Significant Distributions from the Cobalt Swap
In Q4 2024, Sherritt focused efforts to maximize distributions under the Cobalt Swap agreement. In 2024, Sherritt had estimated the Cobalt Swap could have been up to a maximum of $50.0 million (including both Sherritt's share and GNC's redirected share) in Q4 2024 incorporating assumptions, which included first half 2024 average nickel and cobalt reference prices of US$8.00/lb and US$13.50/lb. Despite average nickel and cobalt reference prices in the second half of 2024 being US$7.32/lb and US$11.92/lb or 9% and 12%, respectively, below their first half averages, Sherritt's focused efforts to prudently manage and maximize its cash flows in the Moa JV led to significant distributions of $23.7 million in cash and 223 tonnes of finished cobalt with an in-kind value of $6.1 million (including both Sherritt's and GNC's redirected share).
Increased Power Dividends in Canada
Sherritt received $7.0 million of dividends in Canada from Energas in Q4 2024, bringing the total dividends in Canada to approximately $13.0 million for the year, which was higher than previously estimated due to an updated dividend payment process at Energas, the impact of a weaker Canadian dollar and the deferral on non-essential capital expenditures.
Moa JV Expansion Ramping Up in 2025
Sherritt's low cost and low capital intensity Moa JV expansion program continues to advance. Phase one, the SPP, was completed in early 2024 reducing ore haulage distances, lowering carbon intensity from mining and increasing throughput over the life of mine. Construction on phase two is progressing with piping installation and internal brick lining of vessels underway, along with some pre-commissioning activities. With lower nickel and cobalt prices, Sherritt continues to exercise capital preservation measures and has scheduled certain expenditures for Q1 2025 when construction is expected to be completed and following which, the ramp-up is expected to commence. Concurrent with the Phase two completion and ramp up, the Moa JV is undertaking a series of measures to remove minor processing bottlenecks to support the expected 20% increase in annual mixed sulphide precipitate ("MSP") production. The additional MSP is expected to fill the refinery to nameplate capacity to maximize profitability from the joint venture's own mine feed, displacing lower margin third-party feeds and increasing overall finished nickel and cobalt production.
About Sherritt
Sherritt is a world leader in using hydrometallurgical processes to mine and refine nickel and cobalt – metals deemed critical for the energy transition. Sherritt's Moa JV has an estimated mine life of approximately 25 years and is advancing an expansion program focused on increasing annual MSP production by 20% of contained nickel and cobalt. The Corporation's Power division, through its ownership in Energas, is the largest independent energy producer in Cuba with installed electrical generating capacity of 506 MW, representing approximately 10% of the national electrical generating capacity in Cuba. The Energas facilities are comprised of two combined cycle plants that produce low-cost electricity from one of the lowest carbon emitting sources of power in Cuba. Sherritt's common shares are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol "S".
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains certain forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by the use of statements that include such words as "believe", "expect", "anticipate", "intend", "plan", "forecast", "likely", "may", "will", "could", "should", "suspect", "outlook", "potential", "projected", "continue" or other similar words or phrases. Specifically, forward-looking statements in this document include, but are not limited to, statements regarding, NDCC, unit operating costs and spending on capital for the year ended December 31, 2024, the future impact of frequency control at Energas' Varadero facility, expansion project costs and completion schedules, anticipated benefits arising from Moa JV expansion projects, including without limitation in relation to cost savings, production increases and lower carbon intensity, and expectations regarding future dividend receipts from the Moa JV and Energas.
Forward-looking statements are not based on historical facts, but rather on current expectations, assumptions and projections about future events, including commodity and product prices and demand; the level of liquidity and access to funding; share price volatility; production results; realized prices for production; earnings and revenues; global demand for electric vehicles and the anticipated corresponding demand for cobalt and nickel; the commercialization of certain proprietary technologies and services; advancements in environmental and greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction technology; GHG emissions reduction goals and the anticipated timing of achieving such goals, if at all; statistics and metrics relating to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) matters which are based on assumptions or developing standards; environmental rehabilitation provisions; environmental risks and liabilities; compliance with applicable environmental laws and regulations; risks related to the U.S. government policy toward Cuba; and certain corporate objectives, goals and plans for 2025. By their nature, forward-looking statements require the Corporation to make assumptions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. There is significant risk that predictions, forecasts, conclusions or projections will not prove to be accurate, that the assumptions may not be correct and that actual results may differ materially from such predictions, forecasts, conclusions or projections.
The Corporation cautions readers of this press release not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statement as a number of factors could cause actual future results, conditions, actions or events to differ materially from the targets, expectations, estimates or intentions expressed in the forward-looking statements. These risks, uncertainties and other factors include, but are not limited to, security market fluctuations and price volatility; level of liquidity and the related ability of the Moa JV to pay dividends; access to capital; access to financing; the risk to Sherritt's entitlements to future distributions (including pursuant to the Cobalt Swap) from the Moa JV, the impact of infectious diseases, the impact of global conflicts; changes in the global price for nickel, cobalt, oil, gas, fertilizers or certain other commodities; risks related to Sherritt's operations in Cuba; risks related to the U.S. government policy toward Cuba, including the U.S. embargo on Cuba and the Helms-Burton legislation; political, economic and other risks of foreign operations; uncertainty in the ability of the Corporation to enforce legal rights in foreign jurisdictions; uncertainty regarding the interpretation and/or application of the applicable laws in foreign jurisdictions; compliance with applicable environment, health and safety legislation and other associated matters; risks associated with governmental regulations regarding climate change and greenhouse gas emissions; risks relating to community relations; maintaining social license to grow and operate; risks related to environmental liabilities including liability for reclamation costs, tailings facility failures and toxic gas releases; uncertainty about the pace of technological advancements required in relation to achieving ESG targets; risks to information technologies systems and cybersecurity; identification and management of growth opportunities; the ability to replace depleted mineral reserves; risk of future non-compliance with debt restrictions and covenants; risks associated with the Corporation's joint venture partners; variability in production at Sherritt's operations in Cuba; risks associated with mining, processing and refining activities; potential interruptions in transportation; uncertainty of gas supply for electrical generation; reliance on key personnel and skilled workers; growth opportunity risks; the possibility of equipment and other failures; uncertainty of resources and reserve estimates; the potential for shortages of equipment and supplies, including diesel; supplies quality issues; risks related to the Corporation's corporate structure; risks associated with the operation of large projects generally; risks related to the accuracy of capital and operating cost estimates; foreign exchange and pricing risks; credit risks; shortage of equipment and supplies; competition in product markets; future market access; interest rate changes; risks in obtaining insurance; uncertainties in labour relations; legal contingencies; risks related to the Corporation's accounting policies; uncertainty in the ability of the Corporation to obtain government permits; failure to comply with, or changes to, applicable government regulations; bribery and corruption risks, including failure to comply with the Corruption of Foreign Public Officials Act or applicable local anti-corruption law; the ability to accomplish corporate objectives, goals and plans for 2025; and the ability to meet other factors listed from time to time in the Corporation's continuous disclosure documents.
In addition to the risks noted above, factors that could, alone or in combination, prevent the Corporation from successfully achieving the benefits from expansion opportunities may include, without limitation: identifying suitable commercialization and other partners; successfully advancing discussions and successfully concluding applicable agreements with external parties and/or partners; successfully attracting required financing; successfully developing and proving technology required for the potential opportunity; successfully overcoming technical and technological challenges; successful environmental assessment and stakeholder engagement; successfully obtaining intellectual property protection; successfully completing test work and engineering studies, prefeasibility and feasibility studies, piloting, scaling from small scale to large scale production; procurement, construction, commissioning, ramp-up to commercial scale production and completion; unanticipated cost increases; supply chain challenges and securing regulatory and government approvals. There can be no assurance that any opportunity will be successful, commercially viable, completed on time or on budget, or will generate any meaningful revenues, savings or earnings, as the case may be, for the Corporation. In addition, the Corporation will incur costs in pursuing any particular opportunity, which may be significant. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors is not exhaustive and should be considered in conjunction with the risk factors described in the Corporation's other documents filed with the Canadian securities authorities, including without limitation the "Managing Risk" section of the Management's Discussion and Analysis for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2024 and the Annual Information Form of the Corporation dated March 21, 2024 for the period ending December 31, 2023, which is available on SEDAR at www.sedarplus.ca .
The Corporation may, from time to time, make oral forward-looking statements. The Corporation advises that the above paragraph and the risk factors described in this press release and in the Corporation's other documents filed with the Canadian securities authorities should be read for a description of certain factors that could cause the actual results of the Corporation to differ materially from those in the oral forward-looking statements. The forward-looking information and statements contained in this press release are made as of the date hereof and the Corporation undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any oral or written forward-looking information or statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable securities laws. The forward-looking information and statements contained herein are expressly qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement.
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1 Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures
Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures
Net direct cash cost (NDCC) and spending on capital are non-GAAP financial measures. Management uses these measures to monitor the financial performance of the Metals, Power and other operating divisions. Management believes these measures enable investors and analysts to compare the Corporation's financial performance with its competitors and/or evaluate the results of its underlying operations. These measures are intended to provide additional information, not to replace IFRS ® Accounting Standards measures, and do not have a standard definition under IFRS Accounting Standards and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures of performance prepared in accordance with IFRS Accounting Standards. As these measures do not have a standardized meaning, they may not be comparable to similar measures provided by other companies.
Metals' NDCC is calculated by dividing cost of sales, as reported in the financial statements, adjusted for the following: depreciation, depletion, amortization and impairment losses in cost of sales; cobalt by-product, fertilizer and other revenue; cobalt gain/loss; and other costs primarily related to the impact of opening and closing inventory values, by the number of finished nickel pounds sold in the respective periods, expressed in U.S. dollars.
Metals' NDCC is a key measure that management and investors uses to monitor performance. NDCC of nickel is a widely-used performance measure for nickel producers. Management uses NDCC to assess how well the Corporation's producing mine is performing and to assess overall production efficiency and effectiveness internally across periods and compared to its competitors.
The Corporation defines spending on capital for each segment as property, plant and equipment and intangible asset expenditures on a cash basis adjusted to the accrual basis in order to account for assets that are available for use by the Corporation and the Moa JV prior to payment and includes adjustments to accruals.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250116493018/en/
Tom Halton
Director, Investor Relations and Corporate Affairs
Email: investor@sherritt.com
Telephone: (416) 935-2451
www.sherritt.com
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Sherritt Provides Notice of Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Results Conference Call
NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO UNITED STATES NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES
Sherritt International Corporation ("Sherritt" or the "Corporation") (TSX:S) will release its fourth quarter and full year 2024 results after market close on February 5, 2025. Senior management will host a conference call and webcast on February 6, 2025 at 10:00 am ET to review Sherritt's fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial and operational performance.
Dial-in and Webcast Details:
| North America dial-in number: | 1 (800) 717-1738 Passcode: 62973 | |||||
| International dial-in number: | 1 (289) 514-5100 Passcode: 62973 | |||||
| Webcast and slide presentation: |
Please dial in 15 minutes before the start of the conference to secure a line and avoid delays. Alternatively, listeners will be able to access the conference call via the webcast available on Sherritt's website.
A copy of the webcast and replay of the conference call will be available on the website following the presentation.
About Sherritt
Sherritt is a world leader in using hydrometallurgical processes to mine and refine nickel and cobalt – metals deemed critical for the energy transition. Sherritt's Moa Joint Venture has an estimated mine life of approximately 25 years and is advancing an expansion program focused on increasing annual mixed sulphide precipitate production by 20% of contained nickel and cobalt. The Corporation's Power division, through its ownership in Energas S.A.("Energas"), is the largest independent energy producer in Cuba with installed electrical generating capacity of 506 MW, representing approximately 10% of the national electrical generating capacity in Cuba. The Energas facilities are comprised of two combined cycle plants that produce low-cost electricity from one of the lowest carbon emitting sources of power in Cuba. Sherritt's common shares are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol "S".
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250115897784/en/
For further information, please contact:
Tom Halton
Director, Investor Relations and Corporate Affairs
Email: investor@sherritt.com
Telephone: (416) 935-2451
www.sherritt.com
News Provided by Business Wire via QuoteMedia
