Gary Savage: Silver Run Not Over, US$250 is Easy in Next Leg

Gold and silver prices experienced declines early in the week, but ended higher.

The yellow metal closed the week at US$5,111.88 per ounce, while silver finished at US$84.65 per ounce, buoyed by reignited tariff uncertainty out of the US.

On Friday (February 20), the US Supreme Court stuck down tariffs put in place by President Donald Trump using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. He quickly responded by announcing a new 10 percent global tariff and then increasing it to 15 percent, ramping up trade tensions.

Earlier in the week, Wednesday (February 18) brought the release of the US Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes, which show that although officials largely agreed with the January decision to hold interest rates steady, they aren't aligned about the path forward as 2026 continues.

What's received more attention is the Lunar New Year holiday.

Most Asian markets are closed for the occasion, and will reopen next week. I asked Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank about the significance of the closure, and he said that in his view, the more important question is what will happen when they're back in business next week.

Here's how he thinks that could play out:

"I think ... if they come back to more or less unchanged prices, they will see that probably as a buying opportunity. Simply — well, they probably hope that they might be able to pick it up cheaper in the absence. But if we can manage to hold these levels, then there could be a positive story building as we as we see China reopen."

Hansen is bullish on gold this year, saying he sees it reaching US$6,000 in the next 12 months.

But interestingly, he has a different take on silver — he thinks the white metal's upside could be limited by demand-side factors like substitution and higher supply from scrap material.

"Gold over time can go to US$10,000, it can go to US$20,000 — it's a monetary metal, which doesn't really depend on demand from areas where demand could be negatively impacted with the price.

"Silver hasn't got that luxury. And that basically means if gold moves towards US$6,000, I would believe that — I would think that silver, at some point, will struggle to keep up, and we will see basically gold relatively outperform silver. But when that point, when that time comes, I can't see. Again it's very unclear, especially given the speculative demand, which can carry on for a while longer."

I also heard this week from Christopher Aaron of iGold Advisor and Elite Private Placements, who has a much brighter outlook for silver — he said given that the metal has just broken out of a 45 year consolidation period, it still has much further to go:

"Now that whole process, the 45 year consolidation breakout and now coming back, that is — for a number of people here — that is going to be a once-in-a-lifetime breakout. We're talking a multi-generational breakout happening in silver right now. And it's really important to — I mean, the bottom line is this: After 45 years of consolidation, a market doesn't end just two months after a breakout and then kind of withering and petering out for the next 45 years. Again, that's not how 45 year breakouts happen when we look back."

Ultimately Aaron sees US$250 to US$350 as a reasonable price level for silver.

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Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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