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Uranium Price Forecast: Top Trends for Uranium in 2025
The uranium market entered 2024 on strong footing after a year of significant price movement, as well as renewed attention on nuclear energy’s role in the global energy transition.
After a hitting a 17 year high in February, the uranium spot price declined and then stabilized for the rest of 2024, highlighting the fragile balance between supply constraints and growing demand.
Uranium ended the year around US$73.75 per pound, down from its earlier heights, but still historically elevated.
Key drivers of
2024’s momentum included geopolitical tensions, particularly US sanctions on Russian uranium imports, and supply-side challenges, such as Kazatomprom’s (LSE:KAP,OTC Pink:NATKY)reduced output. Meanwhile, the energy transition narrative bolstered uranium's importance as countries sought reliable, low-carbon energy sources. The global push for nuclear energy, amplified by new commitments at COP29, has set the stage for continued growth in demand.
Heading into 2025, questions about long-term supply security, the geopolitical reshaping of the uranium market and the direction the price will take are expected to dominate industry discussions.
Investors, utilities and policymakers alike are navigating an increasingly dynamic market, looking to capitalize on nuclear energy’s pivotal role in a decarbonized future.
Uranium M&A heating up, more expected in 2025
According to the World Nuclear Association, uranium demand is forecast to
grow by 28 percent between 2023 and 2030. To satisfy this projected growth, uranium majors will need to increase annual production.
They can do so by expanding current mines — if the economics are viable — or by acquiring new projects.
The market began to see heightened merger and acquisition activity in 2024, and the trend is likely to continue into 2025 and beyond, according to Gerado Del Real of Digest Publishing.
“There's no doubt about it in North America," he told the Investing News Network (INN). "Because of the support that this incoming administration (has shown the nuclear sector) I think it is going to continue."
He added, “I think it makes sense for some of these bigger companies to start merging and really create a market for themselves, and then take market share for the next several decades.”
One of 2024’s most notable deals was a
C$1.14 billion mega merger that saw Australia's Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN,OTCQX:PALAF) move to acquire Saskatchewan-focused Fission Uranium (TSX:FCU,OTCQX:FCUUF).
The deal, which was announced in July, is currently undergoing an extended review by the Canadian government under the Investment Canada Act. Canadian officials have cited national security concerns as a reason for the extension.
A key factor is opposition from China's state-owned CGN Mining, which holds an 11.26 percent stake in Fission Uranium. The review reflects heightened scrutiny over critical uranium resources amid geopolitical tensions and global energy security concerns. The prolonged evaluation is now set to conclude by December 30, 2024.
On December 18, 2024, Paladin secured final approval from Canada’s Minister of Innovation, Science, and Industry under the Investment Canada Act, clearing the last regulatory hurdle for its merger. With only standard closing conditions remaining, the deal is set to finalize by early January 2025.
Another notable 2024 deal occurred at the beginning of Q3, when IsoEnergy (TSX:
ISO,OTCQX:ISENF) announced plans to buy US-focused Anfield Energy (TSXV:AEC,OTCQB:ANLDF). The deal will significantly increase the company's resource base to 17 million pounds of measured and indicated uranium, and 10.6 million pounds inferred.
The acquisition will also position IsoEnergy as a potentially major US producer.
“We'll be looking toward some pretty robust M&A In 2025,” said Del Real.
Companies weren’t the only dealmakers in 2024. In mid-December, state-owned Russian company Rosatom
sold its stakes in key Kazakh uranium deposits to Chinese firms.
Uranium One Group, a Rosatom unit, sold its 49.979 percent stake in the Zarechnoye mine to SNURDC Astana Mining Company, controlled by China's State Nuclear Uranium Resources Development Company.
Additionally, Uranium One is expected to relinquish its 30 percent stake in the Khorasan-U joint venture to China Uranium Development Company, linked to China General Nuclear Power.
For Chris Temple of the National Investor, the move further evidences the notion that China is using backdoor loopholes to circumvent US policy decisions for its own benefit.
“China is selling enriched uranium to the US that's actually Russian-enriched uranium — but (China) owns it,” he said. “It's the same as when China goes and sets up a car factory in Mexico, and Mexico sells the cars to the US.”
Geopolitical tensions to amp up supply concerns
Geopolitical tensions are also anticipated to play a key role in uranium market dynamics in 2025.
In the US, the Biden administration's Russian uranium ban will continue to be a factor in the country's supply and demand story. In 2023, the US purchased 51.6 million pounds of uranium, with 12 percent supplied by Russia.
In response to the Russian uranium ban and other sanctions stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin levied its own enriched uranium export ban on the US in November.
With a potential shortfall of 6.92 million pounds looming for the US, strategic partnerships with allies will be crucial.
“If we take a North American — and this includes Canada — (approach), we can find enough supply for the next several years. I am a firm believer that after the next several years of contracts have gobbled up and secured the supply that's necessary, that we're just going to be short unless we have much higher prices,” said Del Real.
Canada is home to some of the largest high-quality uranium deposits, making it a plausible source of US supply.
Continental collaboration was an idea that was reiterated by Temple.
“The biggest beneficiaries, if we're looking at it in the context of North America, are going to be Canadian companies first," he said. "Secondly, some of the US ones that are going to be adding production that have just been idle for years. You've got UEC (NYSEAMERICAN:UEC) and Energy Fuels (TSX:EFR,NYSEAMERICAN:UUUU), two that I follow most closely, and they are starting to ramp back up. It's going to take a while to get there, but they're going to do well.”
While Canadian uranium may be the closest and most accessible for the US market, concerns that tariffs touted by Donald Trump could result in a tit-for-tat battle impacting the energy sector have grown in recent weeks.
Despite the incoming president’s tough rhetoric, both Del Real and Temple see it more as a negotiation tactic.
“The cynical part of me doesn't believe that the tariffs will actually be implemented in any sort of sustainable way, because I'm not a fan. They're not effective. They've been proven to not be effective. They hurt the consumer more than anyone else, and I don't think that the incoming administration is going to want to start by ramping prices up,” said Del Real, noting that it remains to be seen if the tariff strategy is deployed like a “chainsaw or a scalpel.”
Temple also underscored the need for diplomacy and unification between the US and Canada.
“Trump has made a lot of threats about what he's going to do as far as tariffs and whatnot. But again, his whole tariff policy is using a sledgehammer in multiple places when a scalpel in fewer places is appropriate,” he said.
He went on to explain that the tariffs are meant to impact China, but the policy is not well targeted. He believes there needs to be more wisdom and nuance in dealing with China, rather than just relying on overarching tariffs.
More broadly, Temple warned of the potential consequences of pushing China too hard and destabilizing the global economy, a concern he sees as a factor that could be very impactful in 2025.
China's economic troubles, driven by an unprecedented debt-to-GDP ratio, are a looming concern for global markets, Temple added. While much of the focus remains on tariff policies, the bigger issue is China's fragile economic position, with mounting challenges that require more nuanced strategies than punitive measures like tariffs.
If political tensions escalate — especially under a Trump presidency — market confidence could erode further as businesses look to exit China.
Resource nationalism, jurisdiction and green premiums
Resource nationalism is also seen playing a pivotal role in the uranium market next year.
As African nations like Niger and Mali look to reshape their domestic resource sectors, uranium projects in those jurisdictions will have a heightened risk profile.
“I think (jurisdiction) will be critical,” said Del Real. “I think it has been critical.”
He went on to underscore that with equities currently underperforming, using jurisdiction as a barometer is easier.
“The silver lining that I see as a stock picker and somebody that invests actively in the space, is that it's so much easier for me to pick the companies that are in great jurisdictions when I'm getting a discount," said Del Real.
“There's no reason for me to risk my capital in a part of the world where I'm not familiar, where I can't do the type of due diligence that I would like to be able to do,” he went on to explain to INN. “There's no need to be the smartest person in the room and take on disproportionate risk as it relates to jurisdiction geopolitics, because you have a lot of great companies in great, great jurisdictions that are trading for pennies on the dollar.”
Africa is an area that Del Real would be cautious about due to a variety of risks, but moving forward supply from the continent is likely to become a key part of the long-term uranium narrative. According to data from the World Nuclear Association, Africa holds at least 20 percent of global uranium reserves.
For Temple, the scramble to secure fresh pounds could lead to a fractured market. “I think there's going to be a bifurcation in the world, where eastern uranium is going to stay in the east. Western uranium is going to stay in the west. As we ramp back up and some of what's in between, maybe including Africa, will get bid over,” he said.
Adding to this bifurcation could be a green premium on uranium produced using more sustainable methods such as in-situ recovery. This “green” uranium could demand a higher price than recovery methods that rely on sulfuric acid.
“There is more likely to be a green premium, and beyond a green premium it's a matter simply of logistics and shipping costs and all of those things — and, of course, resource nationalism," said Temple.
He also pointed out that globalization is increasingly being reevaluated, with national security and environmental concerns driving a shift toward regional supply chains and localized production.
Even without recent tariff and trade disputes, the push to reduce dependency on global markets has been growing for years, fueled by legislation like the EU’s distance-based import taxes.
This trend suggests a premium on domestically produced goods and resources.
Experts call for triple-digit uranium prices in 2025
With so many tailwinds building for uranium, it’s no surprise that Del Real and Temple expect the price of the commodity to rise back into triple-digit territory sooner rather than later.
“I think that inevitably, the spot price is going to have some catching up to do with the enrichment prices, as well as the contract prices,” said Temple. “It's a no-brainer that we get back in triple digits sooner rather than later in 2025, and ultimately I think you're looking easily in the next few years at US$150 to US$200.”
He cited the rise of artificial intelligence data centers as one of the main price catalysts.
For Del Real, the spot price has found a new floor in the US$75 to US$80 range, with higher levels to come.
“I think we'll finally be at triple digits in the uranium space,” he said. “(It didn’t take a lot of) time to get from US$20, US$30 to US$70, US$80 and then it was a real straight line past the US$100 mark into consolidation,” he said. “I think the utilities are going to start coming offline. And I absolutely see a sustainable triple-digit price in the uranium space for 2025.”
In terms of investments, both Temple and De Real expressed their fondness for UEC. Del Real also highlighted uranium exploration company URZ3 Energy (TSXV:URZ,OTCQB:NVDEF) as a junior with growth potential.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Energy Fuels, Nuclear Fuels, SAGA Metals and Purepoint Uranium Group are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Uranium Price Update: Q1 2025 in Review
Impacted by broad uncertainty, geopolitical risks and trade tensions, the spot U3O8 price fell 13.26 percent during Q1, starting the session at US$74.74 per pound and contracting to US$64.83 by March 31.
As factors outside the uranium sector forced spot price consolidation, long-term uranium prices remained steady, holding at the US$80 level, a possible indicator of the market’s long-term potential.
Although the U3O8 spot price hit nearly two decade highs in 2024, the sector has been unable to find continued support in 2025. Much uncertainty has been introduced this year by the Trump administration's on-again, off-again tariffs, which have infused the already opaque uranium market with even more ambiguity.
As volatility rattles investors, US utility companies have also been impacted by the threat of tariffs.
“There's a lot of speculation,” Per Jander, director of nuclear fuel at WMC, told the Investing News Network (INN) in a March interview. “I think the new administration is unpredictable, and I think that is by design, and (they are) obviously doing a very good job at that. But again, it has ripple effects for players in the market.”
Jander questioned the motive behind tariffing a longstanding ally, especially when US can't satisfy its needs.
“Does it make sense for the US to put tariffs on Canadian material, who is their best friend?” he asked rhetorically.
“I don't think so, because the US produces 1 million pounds a year. They need about 45 million to 50 million pounds per year. So it feels like they’re just punishing themselves," the expert added.
With investors and utilities sidelined, U3O8 prices sank to an almost three year low of US$63.44 on March 12, well off the 17 year high of US$105 set in February 2024.
Chronic undersupply meets rising demand
The tailwinds that pushed uranium prices above the US$100 level largely remain intact, even in the face of trade tensions. Among those drivers are the growing uranium supply deficit.
According to the World Nuclear Association (WNA), total uranium mine supply only met 74 percent of global demand in 2022, a disparity that is still persistent — and growing.
“This year, uranium mines will only supply 75 percent of demand, so 25 percent of demand is uncovered,” Amir Adnani, CEO and president of Uranium Energy (NYSEAMERICAN:UEC), said at a January event.
Adnani went on to explain that after enduring nearly two decades of underinvestment, the uranium sector is grappling with one of the most acute supply deficits in the broader commodities space.
Unlike typical resource markets, where price surges prompt swift production responses, uranium has remained sluggish on the supply side, despite prices jumping 290 percent over the past four years.
According to Adnani, this chronic underproduction stems from 18 years of depressed pricing and lackluster market conditions, which have discouraged new mine development and shuttered existing operations.
“The fact that we're not incentivizing new uranium mines simply means the commodity price isn't high enough,” he said of the spot price, which was at the US$74 level at the time.
Now, with prices holding in the US$64 range, new supply is even less likely to come online in the near term, especially in Canada and the US. Meanwhile, demand is set to steadily increase.
“Next year, uranium demand is going up because there are 65 reactors under construction, and we haven't even started talking about small and advanced modular reactors,” said Adnani. “Small and advanced modular reactors are an additional source of demand that maybe not next year, but within the next three to four years, can become a reality.”
Supply setbacks mount
With prices sitting well below the US$100 level — which is widely considered the incentive price — future uranium supply is even more precarious, especially as major uranium producers reduce guidance.
In 2024, Kazatomprom (LSE:KAP,OTC Pink:NATKY), the world's largest uranium producer, revised its 2025 production forecast downward by approximately 17 percent, now projecting output between 25,000 and 26,500 metric tons of uranium.
This adjustment from the earlier estimate of 30,500–31,500 metric tons is attributed to ongoing challenges, including shortages of sulphuric acid and delays in developing new mining sites, notably at the Budenovskoye deposit.
In January, a temporary production suspension at the Inkai operation in Kazakhstan further threatened 2025 supply. The project, a joint venture between Kazatomprom and Cameco (TSX:CCO,NYSE:CCJ), was halted in January due to paperwork delay.
Rick Rule discusses his expectations for the resource sector in 2025.
While the news was a blow to the uranium supply picture, as veteran resource investor and proprietor of Rule Media, Rick Rule pointed out at VRIC 2025, the move could benefit the spot price.
“The thing that's happened very recently that's very bullish for uranium is the unsuccessful restart of Inkai, which I had believed to be the best uranium mine in the world,” said Rule in the January interview.
He continued: “At the time that it was shut down, it was the lowest cost producer on the globe, because of many things, including an unavailability of sulfuric acid in Kazakhstan, that mine hasn't resumed production anywhere near at the rate that I thought it would. So there's 10 million pounds in reduced supply in 2025 and the spot market is already pretty skinny.”
At the end of January production resumed at Inkai, however as Rule pointed out the mine failed to reach its projected output capacity in 2024, producing 7.8 million pounds U3O8 on a 100 percent basis, a 25 percent decrease from 2023’s 10.4 million pounds.
AI boom and clean energy push set stage for surge in uranium demand
Global uranium demand is projected to rise significantly over the next decade, driven by the proliferation of nuclear energy as a clean power source. According to a 2023 report from the WNA, uranium demand is expected to increase by 28 percent by 2030, reaching approximately 83,840 metric tons from 65,650 metric tons in 2023.
This growth is fueled by the construction of new reactors, reactor life extensions, and the global shift towards decarbonization. The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) is set to significantly increase global electricity demand, particularly from data centers.
“Electricity demand from data centres worldwide is set to more than double by 2030 to around 945 terawatt-hours (TWh), slightly more than the entire electricity consumption of Japan today,” an April report from the International Energy Agency notes. “AI will be the most significant driver of this increase, with electricity demand from AI-optimised data centres projected to more than quadruple by 2030.”
Nuclear energy is poised to play a crucial role in boosting global electricity production.
A recently released report from Deloitte indicates that new nuclear power capacity could meet about 10 of the projected increase in data center electricity demand by 2035.
However, “this estimate is based on a significant expansion of nuclear capacity, ranging between 35 gigawatts (GW) and 62 GW during the same period,” the market overview states.
While the more than 60 reactors under construction will meet some of this heightened demand, additional reactors and more uranium production will be needed to sustainably increase nuclear capacity.
Add to this the gradual restart of Japanese reactors and the disparity between supply and demand deepens. By the end of 2024 Japan had successfully restarted 14 of its 33 shuttered nuclear reactors, which were taken offline in 2011 following the Fukushima disaster.
Long-term upside remains intact
Although positive long term demand drivers paint a bright picture for the uranium industry, the current trade tensions from Trump’s tariffs have shaken the market.
Miners have also felt the pressure, as equities contracted from the policy uncertainty as Adam Rozencwajg of Goehring & Rozencwajg, explained in an February interview with INN.
Despite these challenges equities are still positioned to profit from the underlying fundamentals.
“I think that speculative fever is gone,” he said. The prices have normalized, consolidated. They haven't been terrible performers, but they've consolidated, and I think they're now ready for their next leg higher.”
This sentiment was reiterated by Sprott’s ETF product manager, Jacob White, who underscored the ‘buy the dip’ potential of the current market.
“We believe today’s price weakness presents a potentially attractive entry opportunity for investors who appreciate the strategic value of uranium and can weather near-term turbulence,” wrote White.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Oil and Gas Price Forecast: Top Trends for Oil and Gas in 2025
In 2024, the oil and gas space was shaped by several significant trends, with experts pointing to shifting demand, geopolitical turmoil and rising production as key factors for the energy fuels.
While both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude struggled to maintain price gains made throughout the year, natural gas prices were able to register a 55 percent increase between January and the end of December.
Starting the year at US$75.90 per barrel, Brent crude rallied to a year-to-date high of US$91.13 on April 5. Values sunk to a year-to-date low of US$69.09 on September 10. By late December, prices were holding in the US$72.40 range.
Similarly, WTI started the 12 month period at US$70.49 and moved to a year-to-date high of US$86.60 on April 5. Prices sank to a year-to-date low of US$65.48 in early September. In late December, values were sitting at the US$69.10 level.
Natural gas achieved its year-to-date high of US$3.76 per metric million British thermal units on December 24.
What trends impacted natural gas in 2024?
Although natural gas was able to achieve a late-year rally, prices remained under pressure for the majority of 2024.
Natural gas prices fell to a year-to-date low of US$1.51 in February, shortly after the Biden administration enacted a moratorium on new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export permits in the US.
For Mike O’Leary, the president’s decision added further strain to the oversupplied market.
“The gas prices this year have been really under pressure. We just have so much associated gas with the oil that's being produced that we just continue to have a glut of natural gas," O’Leary, who is a partner at Hunton Andrews Kurth, told the Investing News Network (INN) in a December interview.
“And with the moratorium imposed by the administration this year on LNG facilities, it's just exacerbating that glut for the time being, until at some point hopefully the moratorium will be lifted," he continued.
Hope that the moratorium will be removed was dampened in mid-December, when the US Department of Energy released a study on the environmental and economic impacts of LNG exports.
The analysis highlights a triple cost increase for US consumers from rising LNG exports: higher domestic natural gas prices, increased electricity costs and higher prices for goods as manufacturers pass on elevated energy expenses.
"Special scrutiny needs to be applied toward very large LNG projects. An LNG project exporting 4 billion cubic feet per day — considering its direct life cycle emissions — would yield more annual greenhouse gas emissions by itself than 141 of the world’s countries each did in 2023,” the Department of Energy report reads.
This latest development isn’t the only trend impacting American LNG producers.
“A series of warmer-than-expected winters has led to a large supply glut,” explained Ernie Miller, CEO of Verde Clean Fuels (NASDAQ:VGAS). “Natural gas suppliers need to work off those inventories — and see prices return to more rational levels — before they could even think of increasing production.”
After soaring to a 10 year high of US$9.25 in September 2022, prices have been trapped below US$4 since early 2023.
“Natural gas is dealing with a severe oversupply problem that has kept a tight lid on prices, and the only sector within natural gas that has held up well is LNG, which is a very small part of the overall gas market,” said Miller.
What trends impacted oil in 2024?
Oil prices exhibited volatility through the year, but found support on the back of ongoing production cuts from OPEC+ and steady demand recovery in key economies. US oil production is forecast to average 13.2 million barrels a day in 2024, reflecting resilience despite challenges such as declining rig counts.
Geopolitical tensions, including the Israel-Hamas conflict, have added uncertainty to global supply chains.
Oil supply/demand dynamics remain complex elsewhere as well. Chinese oil demand softened in 2024, with lower-than-expected economic performance dampening consumption growth. In contrast, Europe continued its push for renewable energy while navigating supply challenges tied to Russian sanctions.
In the US, Donald Trump’s presidential election victory and his "drill, baby, drill" mantra have created optimism. However, as FocusEconomics editor and economist Matthew Cunningham said, it could be easier said than done.
“Politicians’ rhetoric often divorces from reality, and in Trump’s case this is no different. He probably will succeed in boosting domestic production of oil and gas by issuing more leases for drilling on federal land and scrapping environmental regulations," Cunningham explained to INN.
"Nonetheless, he is unlikely to boost output by as much as his 'drill, baby, drill' comment indicates."
He added, “Historically, the power of US presidents to influence oil and gas production has been dwarfed by that of the market: Ultimately, the price of oil and gas will determine if American shale firms will drill. Our consensus forecast is currently for US crude production to rise by 0.7 million barrels next year, about 3 percent of 2024 output.”
This sentiment was echoed by Miller, whose company Verde Clean Fuels makes low-carbon gasoline.
“While President-elect Trump is likely to remove restrictions from oil producers, it doesn’t mean those producers will necessarily be drilling more wells or increasing domestic production," he said.
"With oil prices hovering around US$70 a barrel — down from US$85 in the spring — oil companies don’t want to create an oversupply scenario driving prices even lower."
Regardless of Trump’s directive, oil producers will likely remain prudent.
“The major oil companies have learned hard lessons from previous cycles — that they need to maintain discipline and a strong balance between supply and demand so they can protect their margins,” Miller added
O’Leary also thinks Trump's campaign promises, if followed through, could add more price volatility to the market.
“Even though he said that, the energy companies here in the states realize they don't really want to open the spigots, because that's going to drive the price down,” said O’Leary.
“If the US did that and overproduced, OPEC would say, 'Well, we need to defend our market share.' So they might just go ahead and open their spigots up, and that would further drive the price down,” he said, adding that Trump’s pro-energy stance could result in more capital for the sector.
How will Trump's tough tariff talk affect oil and gas?
Shortly after his election win, Trump began touting 25 percent tariffs aimed at ally nations Canada and Mexico.
Over several decades, trade between the three nations has become increasingly interconnected, meaning that adding tariffs to all or some goods and services could weaken continental relations and result in escalation.
In 2023, the US imported 8.51 million barrels per day of petroleum from 86 countries.
Canada and Mexico topped the list of countries, with Canada supplying 52 percent and Mexico 11 percent.
“There's a lot of concern that if the oil and gas sector is not exempt — and (Trump) has said nothing about exempting it — that that could drive the prices up for the consumers here in the country, and do just the opposite of what I think Trump really wants to do, which is to fight inflation,” O’Leary commented.
As FocusEconomics editor and economist Cunningham pointed out, there could be a repeat of the 2018 trade war if the tariffs are enacted, which would ultimately hurt the US oil and gas sector.
“During the 2018 trade war with China, Chinese buyers of oil and gas erred away from purchasing US supplies of the fuel. US oil prices fell relative to European ones, and US LNG exports to China fell to zero after Beijing hiked tariffs on the fuel to 25 percent,” he explained to INN.
In October, FocusEconomics surveyed 15 economists on whether Trump will implement a 10 to 20 percent blanket tariff on imports, with two-thirds of respondents saying they think he will.
Geopolitical uncertainty to remain key in 2025
Looking to the year ahead, the experts INN spoke with see geopolitics as a major trend to watch.
“As in recent years, wars in the Middle East and Eastern Europe will continue to support oil and gas prices by unsettling trade flows and raising the risk of supply disruptions. That said, it seems likely that conflicts in both regions will come closer to winding down in 2025 than at the start of 2024,” said Cunningham.
Israel has largely dismantled Hamas’ leadership, while Ukraine faces potential negotiations with Russia following recent military setbacks, as well as the re-election of Trump, who is focused on brokering a deal. These developments could exert downward pressure on oil and gas prices in the coming year, noted Cunningham.
FocusEconomics panelists have cut their forecast for average Brent prices in 2025 by 7.6 percent.
Miller expects some volatility, but also noted the energy sector's resilience.
“The largest spikes in volatility we’ve seen are directly related to the war in the Middle East. However, interestingly, those spikes have been very short-lived, and prices settled back and have been drifting lower for months," he said.
“I think it’s fair to say that, by and large, global energy markets have been remarkably resilient, considering there are two wars going on. That stability has worked as a bit of a tailwind for economies, because oil is among the largest expenses for many industries, including air travel and trucking," added Miller.
For O’Leary, this year’s geopolitical shifts, notably the Ukraine war, have reshaped global energy dynamics. Europe, aiming to reduce reliance on Russian energy, has turned to the global market, securing LNG supply from the US and Australia. This has increased LNG demand, but hasn’t significantly lifted natural gas prices, which remain low.
Meanwhile, companies pursuing greener energy strategies are reassessing due to high costs, with some shifting focus from green hydrogen, produced via electrolysis, to blue hydrogen derived from natural gas, which is more cost effective.
Oil and natural gas trends to watch in 2025
Oil and gas market watchers should be on the lookout for more uncertainty entering 2025.
O’Leary is keeping an eye on the growing energy demands of data centers, which are straining power grids and spurring interest in solutions like hydrogen, nuclear power and co-located facilities. However, delays in permitting new energy infrastructure, such as LNG facilities and pipelines, remain a significant hurdle.
Geopolitically, he believes a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war would stabilize the oil and gas sector, although Europe is unlikely to fully trust Russia as an energy supplier again.
Miller will be watching OPEC+ decisions and actions, as they continue to influence global oil supply dynamics.
The performance of major economies across the US, Europe and Asia will also play a critical role in shaping oil and gas demand heading into 2025. Seasonal weather conditions could have a significant impact, particularly if the US and Europe experience a colder or warmer-than-usual winter. Lastly, any major geopolitical developments involving oil-producing nations could cause unexpected shifts in the market.
Economist Cunningham pointed to several trends that investors should be mindful of.
“Black swan events — those that are rare and difficult to predict, like the wars in Gaza and Ukraine — are, by their unforeseen nature, some of the primary movers of volatility in oil and gas markets,” he said.
“Trump, who styles himself as a master dealmaker, is the main wild card. Trump likes to cloak himself in the guise of a black swan — a 'madman' à la Nixon — that is hard to read and will push his interlocutors to the brink in order to force them to accept his terms," added Cunningham. He also warned that trade wars would send energy prices plunging, while tighter sanctions on oil-producing Iran and Venezuela — two of Trump’s bugbears — could send them higher.
The oil market faces uncertainty on both supply and demand fronts in 2025, he explained.
The cohesion of OPEC+ is under pressure as competition from non-member producers rises, with the group planning to increase production starting in April. On the demand side, emerging markets in Asia are expected to drive crude consumption, though China's economic performance remains a key variable.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Coelacanth Energy, First Helium and Source Rock Royalties are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Oil and Gas Price Update: Q1 2025 in Review
The oil sector faced volatility throughout the first quarter of 2025.
Concerns around weak demand, increasing supply and trade tensions came to head in early April, pushing oil prices to four year lows and eroding the support Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) had above the US$65 per barrel level.
Starting the year at US$75 (Brent) and US$72 (WTI), the oil benchmarks rallied in mid-January, reaching five month highs of US$81.86 and US$78.90, respectively. Tariff threats and trade tensions between the US and China, along with soft demand in Asia and Europe, dampened the global economic outlook for 2025 and added headwinds for oil prices.
This pressure caused oil prices to slip to Q1 lows of US$69.12 (Brent) and US$66.06 (WTI) in early March.
“The macroeconomic conditions that underpin our oil demand projections deteriorated over the past month as trade tensions escalated between the United States and several other countries,” a March oil market report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) notes, highlighting the downside risks of US tariffs and retaliatory measures.
The instability and weaker-than-expected consumption from advanced and developing economies prompted the IEA to downgrade its growth estimates for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 to about 1.2 million barrels per day.
Despite the uncertain outlook, an announcement that OPEC+ would extend a 2.2 million barrel per day production cut into Q2 added some support to the market amid global growth concerns and rising output in the US.
Prices spiked at the end of March, pushing both benchmarks to within a dollar of their 2025 start values. However, the rally was short-lived and prices had plummeted by April 9.
Oil prices fall as OPEC hikes output and supply risks mount
WTI price performance, December 31, 2024, to April 23, 2025.
Chart via the Investing News Network.
Sinking to four year lows, Brent and WTI fell below the critical US$60 per barrel threshold, to US$58.62 (Brent) and US$55.38 (WTI), lows not seen since April 2021. The decline saw prices shed more than 21 percent between January and April shaking the market and investor confidence.
“We're into the supply destruction territories for some of the high cost producers,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, told the Investing News Network. “It will not play out today or tomorrow, because a lot of these producers are forward hedging as part of their production.”
Watch Hansen discuss where oil and other commodities are heading.
According to Hansen, if prices remain in the high US$50 range US production will likely decrease, aiding in a broader market realignment. "Eventually we will see production start to slow in the US, probably other places as well, and that will help balance the market,” the expert explained in the interview. “Helping to offset some of the risk related to recession, but also some of the production increases that we're seeing from OPEC.”
In early April, OPEC+ did an about face when it announced plans for a significant increase in oil production, marking its first output hike since 2022. The group plans to add 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) to the market starting in May, effectively accelerating its previously gradual supply increase strategy.
Although the group cited “supporting market stability” as the reasoning behind the increase, some analysts believe the decision is a punitive one targeted at countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan who consistently exceed production quotas.
“(The increase) is basically in order to punish some of the over producers,” said Hansen. He went on to explain that Kazakhstan produced 400,000 barrels beyond its quota.
If these countries return to their agreed limits, it could offset OPEC’s planned production hikes.
At the same time, US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela may tighten global supply further, while a growing military presence in the Middle East also signals rising geopolitical risks, particularly involving Iran.
As such Hansen expects prices to fluctuate between US$60 to US$80 for the rest of the year.
“(I am) struggling to see, prices collapse much further than that, simply because it will have a counterproductive impact on supply and that will eventually help stabilize prices,” said Hansen.
Hansen’s projections also fall inline with data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The organization downgraded the US$74 Brent price forecast it set in March to US$68 in April.
The EIA foresees US and global oil production to continue rising in 2025, as OPEC+ speeds up its planned output increases and US energy remains exempt from new tariffs.
Starting mid-year, global oil inventories are projected to build. However, the EIA warns that economic uncertainty could dampen demand growth for petroleum products, potentially falling short of earlier forecasts.
“The combination of growing supply and lower demand leads EIA to expect the Brent crude oil price to average less than US$70 per barrel in 2025 and fall to an average of just over US$60 per barrel in 2026,” the April report read.
Supply concerns add tailwinds for natural gas
On the natural gas side, Q1 was marked by tight conditions amid rising demand. A colder-than-normal winter led to increased consumption, with US natural gas withdrawals in Q1 exceeding the five-year average.
Starting the year at US$3.59 per metric million British thermal units, prices rose to a year-to-date high of US$4.51 on March 10. Values pulled back by the end of the 90 day period to the US$4.09 level, registering a 13.9 percent increase for Q1.
"Cold weather during January and February led to increased natural gas consumption and large natural gas withdrawals from inventories,” a March report from the EIA explains.
Natural gas price performance, December 31, 2024, to April 23, 2025.
Chart via the Investing News Network.
“(The) EIA now expects natural gas inventories to fall below 1.7 trillion cubic feet at the end of March, which is 10 percent below the previous five-year average and 6 percent less natural gas in storage for that time of year than EIA had expected last month," the document continues.
Natural gas price forecast for 2025
Following record setting demand growth in 2024 the gas market is expected to remain tight through 2025, amid market expansion from Asian countries.
The IEA also pointed to price volatility brought on geopolitical tensions as a factor that could move markets.
“Though the halt of Russian piped gas transit via Ukraine on 1 January 2025 does not pose an imminent supply security risk for the European Union, it could increase LNG import requirements and tighten market fundamentals in 2025,” the organization notes in a gas market report for Q1.
Although the market is forecasted to remain tight the IEA expects growth in global gas demand to slow to below 2 percent in 2025. Similarly to 2024’s trajectory, growth is set to be largely driven by Asia, which is expected to account for almost 45 percent of incremental gas demand, the report read.
THe US-based EIA has a more optimistic outlook for the domestic gas sector, projecting the annual demand growth rate to be 4 percent for 2025.
“This increase is led by an 18 percent increase in exports and a 9 percent increase in residential and commercial consumption for space heating,” an April EIA market overview states.
The report attributes the expected export growth to increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments out of two new LNG export facilities, Plaquemines Phase 1 and Golden Pass LNG.
Venture Global's (NYSE:VG) Plaquemines LNG facility in Louisiana commenced production in December 2024 and is currently in the commissioning phase.
Once fully operational, it is expected to have a capacity of 20 million metric tons per annum. The facility has entered into binding long-term sales agreements for its full capacity
Golden Pass LNG, a joint venture between ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) and state-owned QatarEnergy, is under construction in Sabine Pass, Texas. The project has faced delays due to the bankruptcy of a key contractor, with Train 1 now expected to be operational by late 2025 . Upon completion, Golden Pass LNG will have an export capacity of up to 18.1 million metric tons per annum.
The EIA forecasts natural gas prices to average US$4.30 in 2025, a US$2.10 increase from 2024. Looking at 2026, the EIA forecast a more modest increase to US$4.60.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
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