2025 Copper Outlook Report
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Copper Outlook 2025
Copper was trading on the COMEX at under US$4 per pound at the beginning of 2024, but by May 21, the red metal's price had surged to a record high of US$5.11 per pound.
Price momentum at the start of the year was owed to several factors, including increasing demand from energy transition sectors, bottlenecks at Chinese refiners and near-zero copper treatment charges.
The price was volatile through the second and third quarters, slipping back below US$4 per pound before soaring above US$4.50 at the end of Q3. Read on for more on how copper performed in 2024, from prices to supply and demand.
Copper price in Q4
Copper started the fourth quarter of the year on a strong note. On October 2, the metal reached its quarterly high of US$4.60 before starting a month-long slide to US$4.31 on October 31.
Volatility was the story at the start of November. Copper soared to US$4.45 on November 5 before dropping to US$4.22 on November 6, then spiked to US$4.41 on November 7; finally, it crashed to US$4.05 on November 15.
Copper price, Q4 2024.
Chart via Trading Economics.
While copper did see a couple of rallies as the year ended, it only briefly broke through resistance of US$4.20 from December 9 to 11 before settling toward the US$4 mark at the end of the month.
As of December 23, the copper price was sitting at US$4.02.
Copper concentrate market to stay tight
In an October report, Fastmarkets predicts that the concentrate market will remain tight in 2025.
This tightness will continue to impact refiner treatment charges. Though they are expected to rebound to around US$20 to US$30 per metric ton (MT), they will still be short of the US$80 mark reached in 2023.
The situation has become more challenging as new operations, particularly in China, expand capacity in 2024. Fastmarkets anticipates no change in the situation in 2025, as new smelters are set to come online in China, Indonesia and India. The additional capacity will see more refiners fighting for the available supply.
The research firm says several other factors are contributing to copper concentrate shortages, including the loss of material from First Quantum Minerals' (TSX:FM,NYSE:FM) Cobre Panama mine after it was ordered shut down in November 2023. Other miners that have cut their production forecasts are also adding to supply woes.
For example, Teck Resources (TSX:TECK.A,TECK.B,NYSE:TECK) revised its copper production guidance when it released its third quarter results on October 23. In its release, Teck indicates that the updated range now stands at 420,000 to 455,000 MT, down from the 435,000 to 500,000 MT estimated at the start of the year.
The company said the reduction was due to challenges with labor availability and problems with autonomous systems in its new haul trucks at its Highland Valley mine in BC, Canada.
China’s economy dragging on copper
A significant headwind for copper at the end of 2024 has been the continued challenges posed by China’s faltering economy. Although the country has introduced stimulus measures, they have made little difference.
The most recent stimulus announcement came on December 24, when the Chinese government announced it would issue US$411 billion worth of special treasury bonds in 2025. This package would be the highest on record, and would represent an increase over the US$137 billion issued in the past year.
The move follows President Xi Jinping’s keynote address at the country’s annual economic policy meeting on December 11 and 12. Xi said at the time that the economy was stable, and that the government would be working to boost consumption through looser monetary policy and more active fiscal policy. Few details were given on how the country would achieve its goals, and the US$411 billion debt injection could be the first sign of that policy.
In addition, in September, the Chinese government announced measures to increase credit, support cities in purchasing unsold homes and restructure debt. These efforts have failed to turn around the world’s second largest economy.
China is the world’s largest copper consumer, and any shift in the strength of the nation's economy will have implications for the price trajectory of base metal.
How did copper perform for the rest of the year?
Copper supply was in focus in Q1 as First Quantum provided an update on its Cobre Panama mine.
The mine was forced to close at the end of 2023 after the Panamanian Supreme Court walked back a company-friendly deal initially approved in October 2023.
At the beginning of 2024, First Quantum pursued several avenues to resolve the issue and reopen the mine, including arbitration. It also waited for the results of Panama’s May election in hopes of more mining-friendly leadership.
The second quarter was dominated by news of output curtailments at Chinese smelting operations.
The cuts came as lower production levels from copper miners began to stress treatment charges at refiners as they competed for the limited availability of copper concentrate.
Speaking to the Investing News Network at the time, Joe Mazumdar, editor of Exploration Insights, said that 50 percent of the world’s smelting capacity is in China. For that reason, the end price is dictated by treatment and refining charges, which nearly turned negative due to the lack of available concentrate.
In turn, this pushed the price of copper prices higher at major exchanges.
“So there’s the cathode price. That’s stated in the LME, and Shanghai and the COMEX in the states. But if the market is tight in any of those regions locally, you will see a cathode premium … over the price of the copper,” he said. “People are willing to pay more to incentivize people that have copper inventory to release it into the market."
Copper supply and demand both saw growth during Q3.
The International Copper Study Group reported in an October 21 release that mined production of copper had increased by 2 percent year-on-year to 14.86 million MT during the first eight months of 2024.
Much was owed to 3 percent growth from Chile, with increases at BHP’s (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) Escondida mine, as well as the Collahausi mine, which is a joint venture between Anglo American (LSE:AAL,OTCQX:AAUKF), Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF) and Mitsui (OTC Pink:MITSF,TSE:8031).
Output from the Democratic Republic of Congo increased 11 percent, while Indonesia's production rose 22 percent.
At the same time, demand increased slightly by 2.5 percent. Much of the additional demand came from 2.7 percent growth in Asian markets, which includes a 0.5 percent increase in Chinese refined copper imports.
Investor takeaway
The copper market has been tight all year, with new demand accelerating beyond new mine supply.
This demand growth is expected to continue as the world transitions from fossil fuels to renewable technologies that require more copper, like wind and solar. However, copper demand is still constrained by weakness in the Chinese economy, particularly in its housing sector, which is an important driver of global demand for the metal.
Ultimately, in the longer term, copper supply will be lacking from new projects and expanded production to meet demand. The base metal is expected enter a supply deficit over the next few years.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Copper Price Forecast: Top Trends for Copper in 2025
Copper prices saw impressive gains in 2024, even breaking the US$5 per pound mark in May. However, the red metal's gains didn't last, and by the end of the year copper had retreated back to the US$4 range.
The start of 2025 could be eventful, with Donald Trump returning to the Oval Office, a new stimulus package coming into effect in China and a continued push for greener technologies around the world.
What will these factors mean for copper prices in the new year? Will they rise, or can investors expect the base metal to remain rangebound? Here's a look at what experts see coming for the important commodity.
How will Trump's presidency impact US copper projects?
Trump will be sworn in for his second term as US president on January 20.
During his campaign, he made bold promises that could shake up the American resource sector, pushing a "drill, baby, drill" mantra and committing to increasing oil production in the country.
When it comes to copper, Trump's proposed changes to environmental regulations could have key implications. While the Biden administration has sought to toughen these rules, Trump will look to relax them.
In an email to the Investing News Network (INN), Eleni Joannides, Wood Mackenzie's research director for copper, said changes to environmental regulations are likely to benefit the mining sector overall.
“The former president has already pledged to overturn a 20 year moratorium on mining in Northern Minnesota. This pro-mining approach means more mines could be permitted and put into production,” she said.
One project that was being planned before the Biden administration restricted access to federal lands in the Superior National Forest belongs to Twin Metals Minnesota, a subsidiary of Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO,OTC Pink:ANFGF). The company has been working to advance its underground copper, nickel, cobalt and platinum-metals group project since 2006, and has submitted plans to state and federal regulatory agencies.
Another copper-focused project that may benefit from the incoming Trump administration is Northern Dynasty Minerals' (TSX:NDM,NYSEAMERICAN:NAK) controversial Pebble project in Alaska.
The company has been exploring the Bristol Bay region since acquiring the property in 2001, but the US Army Corps of Engineers denied approval in 2020; the Environmental Protection Agency did the same in 2021.
Northern Dynasty has been fighting these decisions at both the state and federal level. It reached the Supreme Court in January 2024, but was denied a hearing until the dispute is examined at the state level.
On December 20, Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy added his support for the project when he petitioned the incoming president to issue an Alaska-specific executive order on his first day in office. The order would effectively reverse decisions made by the Biden administration, including the permitting of the Pebble project.
In addition to Pebble, projects like Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) and BHP’s (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) Resolution, and Hudbay Minerals' (TSX:HBM,NYSE:HBM) Copper World, both of which are in Arizona, may benefit from Trump’s plan to reduce permitting times on projects worth over US$1 billion.
Currently, large-scale operations like these can take up to 20 years to move from exploration to production in the US. Copper is considered a critical mineral for the energy transition, and is increasingly becoming a security concern as the US is largely dependent on China for its supply of copper.
Copper price volatility expected under Trump tariff turmoil
As tensions continue to grow between the west and eastern nations like China and Russia, it may not take much to threaten markets for critical materials, including copper.
Trump has already promised to impose a 60 percent tariff on all goods coming from China.
A tariff on copper imports could upend the president-elect's plans for the resource sector. It would increase the prices of copper imports and disrupt the overall economy.
“The risk is that the president-elect’s threatened tariffs, including 60 percent on China and 20 percent on all other nations, could derail global economic growth, lead to higher inflation and, with that, tighten monetary policy and also lead to a change in trade flows. Copper will suffer if demand takes a hit," Joannides said.
"In addition, there is likely to be continued volatility in prices,” she added.
In its recent analysis of Trump’s policies, ING sees an overall negative impact on global metals demand.
The firm believes that many of his plans, including tariffs, will cause the US Federal Reserve take a longer-term approach to reducing interest rates, which could affect investment in large-scale copper projects.
S&P Global expressed a similar view after Trump's win. Immediately after the election, copper prices sank 4 percent to fall under US$4.30, with the firm suggesting that is likely just the beginning. The organization notes that while the market may have already priced in Trump’s tariffs, a larger trade war could impact prices even further.
Economic recovery in China could further boost copper prices
China's faltering economy has been a major headwind for copper over the past several years.
The country's housing market accounts for roughly 30 percent of global demand for the red metal, meaning that any shifts could have significant implications for the copper market.
The sector has been struggling for the past few years as the country deals with economic issues, including fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused disruptions to supply chains and a spike in unemployment.
Ultimately, economic factors struck China's real estate sector, an important driver of the country’s gross domestic product; this caused the collapse of the nation's top two developers, China Evergrande Group and Country Garden.
So far, the government’s attempts to stimulate the economy and jumpstart the beleaguered real estate sector have largely failed. In September, it announced measures aimed at property buyers, such as reducing interest rates for existing mortgages by 50 points and cutting the minimum downpayment requirement for homes to 15 percent.
Other changes introduced at the time include more help from the People’s Bank of China, which will provide a lending facility for state-owned firms to acquire unsold flats for affordable housing.
China followed this up with an announcement in November that it will provide additional support for local governments by increasing their debt-raising capacity by 6 trillion yuan over the next six years.
While these measures may not be felt for some time, kickstarting the Asian nation's real estate sector could be a boon for copper producers and investors.
“If the Chinese real estate market were to post a recovery, this would see domestic demand for copper tick higher and could lead to a tighter supply and demand balance overall, assuming all other things remain unchanged. This would underpin even higher prices than we are currently projecting,” said Joannides.
Copper industry needs more investment dollars
With copper demand projected to grow long term, supply-side concerns are rising. According to Joannides, there is already recognition that copper exploration has been underinvested over the past few years.
“We are seeing signs this could change. Much of the growth over the last five years has come from brownfield expansions rather than greenfield/new discoveries," she explained to INN.
"Technology will likely help increase the chance of discovery, and broadly I would say that policymakers are now more supportive of mineral exploration as the push to secure critical raw materials supply has moved up the agenda."
Joannides pointed to greenfield projects already in the pipeline, including Capstone Copper’s (TSX:CS,OTC Pink:CSCCF) Santo Domingo in Chile, Southern Copper’s (NYSE:SCCO) Tia Maria in Peru and Teck Resources' (TSX:TECK.A,TECK.B,NYSE:TECK) Zarfanal in Peru.
There's also Northmet, a Teck and Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF) joint venture in Minnesota.
Rising copper prices could also increase the flow of money from the major companies into the junior space, where most of the exploration is currently occurring.
“Copper has become the standout strategic preference for the major mining companies. The risk-adjusted cost of developing organic copper assets is higher than the cost of acquiring them,” Joannides said.
This kind of acquisition activity could help reduce the development time of assets compared to companies starting exploration from scratch.
Investor takeaway
While copper supply and demand conditions are expected to remain tight in 2025, competing forces are at play.
One of the biggest factors is Trump’s return to the White House. If the president-elect takes action as quickly as he has promised, investors could soon gain insight on the long-term implications of his policies.
In terms of China, it will take time to get the property sector back to where it was before the pandemic; however, there may be sparks early in the year as new measures start to work their way through the market.
During 2025 it may be even more prudent than usual for investors to do their due diligence on copper and keep an eye on the forces that may affect the market.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold shares of Northern Dynasty Minerals.
Editorial Disclosure: Los Andes Copper, Osisko Metals and Quetzal Copper are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
5 Best-performing Copper Stocks on the TSX in 2024
Copper prices surged in 2024, breaking the US$5 per pound barrier for the first time.
Prices have since retreated, but have largely traded above US$4, as well as above the average 2023 price of US$3.83.
Copper demand remains high in energy transition sectors, but supply has been affected by bottlenecks at Chinese smelters, which cut production during the first half of the year due to low treatment charges.
Against that backdrop, how have TSX-listed copper companies performed? Learn about the top five best-performing copper stocks in 2024 by year-to-date gains below. Data for this article was retrieved on December 16, 2024, using TradingView's stock screener, and only companies with market capitalizations greater than C$50 million are included.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 189.29 percent
Market cap: C$259.05 million
Share price: C$1.62
Trilogy Metals is a polymetallic exploration and development company working to advance its Upper Kobuk mineral projects in Northern Alaska, US, which it owns in a 50/50 joint venture with South32 (ASX:S32,OTC Pink:SHTLF).
Its most advanced asset is the Arctic copper, zinc, lead, gold and silver project.
In an updated feasibility study released in February 2023, the company reported projected annual payable production volumes of 148.68 million pounds of copper, 172.6 million pounds of zinc, 25.75 million pounds of lead, 32,538 ounces of gold and 2.77 million ounces of silver. After tax, the net present value for Arctic is pegged at US$1.11 billion, with an internal rate of return of 22.8 percent and a payback period of 3.1 years. The mine life is set at 13 years.
Trilogy’s other key asset is the Bornite copper-cobalt project, located 25 kilometers southwest of its Arctic project. It has seen historic exploration dating back to the 1950s. A January 2023 technical report estimates the inferred resource at 6.51 billion pounds of copper from 202.7 million metric tons (MT) of ore with an average grade of 1.46 percent copper.
The company has spent much of this year advancing roadwork to provide access to its projects, but has faced some headwinds while working with the US Bureau of Land Management (BLM).
In an April 22 update, Trilogy said the BLM had filed a final supplemental environmental impact statement, which identified “no action” as the preferred alternative. This move effectively blocked the construction of the access road.
Trilogy said it would review the final supplemental environmental impact statement, consider its options and determine its next steps. For its part, the BLM formally rejected the proposed access route in a June record of decision, but presented several alternatives that outline lessened impact on BLM-managed lands.
The company’s most recent news came on October 8, when it released its Q3 results.
Shares of Trilogy reached a year-to-date high of C$1.89 on November 22.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 75.9 percent
Market cap: C$387.16 million
Share price: C$0.73
Northern Dynasty Minerals is an exploration and development company focused on the Pebble project, a copper-molybdenum-gold-silver project located 200 miles southwest of Anchorage in the Bristol Bay region of Alaska, US.
Northern Dynasty says the site is “one of the greatest stores of mineral wealth ever discovered.” It hosts a measured and indicated copper resource of 6.5 billion MT and an inferred copper resource of 4.5 billion MT. Measured and indicated resources for molybdenum, gold and silver total 1.26 million MT, 53.82 million ounces and 249.3 million ounces, respectively.
The project stalled in 2020 during the permitting phase following a US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) veto that suggested the proposed mine would damage the Bristol Bay watershed. However, shares of the company surged following Northern Dynasty's July 2023 announcement that Alaska had appealed to the US Supreme Court to reverse the veto.
Earlier in 2024, the US Supreme Court declined to hear the matter on procedural grounds, sending it back to the federal district court and federal circuit of appeals before the Supreme Court would hear it.
In a release on January 16, Northern Dynasty said it was still working its way through state court.
Further updates on the case came on March 15, when the company said it had filed two separate actions to vacate the EPA’s veto, and on April 15, when Alaska filed its own suit to vacate it. On June 26, the company reported that two Alaska native village corporations had also filed suits to overturn the EPA ruling.
The most recent news came on August 19, when the Federal District Court in Alaska granted Northern Dynasty’s motion to modify the complaint against the EPA by adding the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) as a defendant. This request was made because Northern Dynasty said the EPA decision was based on the original USACE permit denial and should be linked. The company believes the actions taken by the EPA and USACE were wrongful and politically motivated.
Shares of Northern Dynasty reached a year-to-date high of C$0.76 on December 11.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 74.45 percent
Market cap: C$2.64 billion
Share price: C$12.63
NGEx Minerals, part of the Lundin Group, is a copper and gold explorer focused on projects in Argentina and Chile. Its primary focus is the Los Helados and Lunahuasi (formerly Potro Cliffs) projects, both located within the Vicuña copper-gold district on the border of Argentina and Chile. The district is controlled by companies within the Lundin Group.
In December 2023, the company released an updated resource estimate for Los Helados, reporting a high-grade core resource of 510 million tonnes at 0.72 percent copper equivalent at a cut-off grade of 0.6 copper equivalent.
NGEx shares have traded alongside rising copper and precious metal prices throughout the year, but several events have also significantly supported movement for the company.
On February 20, the company received approval to begin trading on the TSX. President Wojtek Wodzicki said the graduation was a milestone for NGEx and would provide greater visibility and access to fundraising opportunities.
The company's Q2 results further supported its shares. The company said it had completed a successful drill program at Lunahuasi, drilling 15 holes totaling 12,952 meters and noting that the system remained open in all directions. It also indicated that the program returned several high-grade intersections, with one highlight of 2.31 percent copper equivalent over 429.4 meters, including an intersection of 4.26 percent copper equivalent over 102.7 meters.
The company said the results demonstrate significant size potential with high-grade mineralization occurring over an area of 900 meters by 400 meters and to depths of 960 meters. The most recent news came on November 12, when NGEx released its Q3 results. The company said it had started a Phase 3 drill program at Lunahuasi, with six rigs in operation and 20,000 meters planned. The program aims to grow the deposit via step-out drilling.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 71.9 percent
Market cap: C$16.18 billion
Share price: C$18.60
First Quantum Minerals is a copper mining and development company with a global portfolio of assets.
Its primary asset is the Cobre Panama mine, located west of Panama City, Panama. The mine boasts 3 billion MT of proven and probable reserves and represents 1 percent of the world’s copper supply. The mine was ordered to close down in November 2023 after the Panamanian Supreme Court invalidated an extension to the mine's license.
In a December 2023 release, the company said it was working on developing a closure plan for the mine; however, it also noted that it was pursuing all appropriate legal avenues to protect its investment and rights.
In its Q1 results, released on April 24, First Quantum said it was continuing to work on a preservation and safe management plan for Cobre Panama and was also working to deliver the 121,000 MT of concentrate that remain on site.
Due to the ongoing situation in Panama, the company noted that it had undergone a refinancing program to improve its balance sheet and liquidity. This program included working out a prepayment agreement with Jiangxi Copper (SHA:600362,HKEX:0358) for US$500 million, the completion of a US$1.6 billion senior secured second lien at 9.38 percent due in 2029 and the issuance of 139.93 million common shares to raise US$1.15 billion.
The company also operates several mines in Zambia, including its Kansanshi copper-gold mine, Sentinel copper mine and Enterprise nickel mine. Earlier in the year, First Quantum warned that production might be impacted in 2024 due to severe drought conditions caused by El Nino, which has reduced water levels in the Kafue and Zambezi rivers. The government declared a national emergency in March, and power generation in the country has been impacted.
First Quantum said it had minimized power disruptions due to offtake agreements with third-party traders for power sourced from the Southern African Power Pool. Due to increased power curtailments since the Q1 release, the firm has had to increase the amount of power sourced from regional sources to 193 megawatts from the original 80 megawatts.
In the company’s third quarter results, First Quantum reported the production of 116,088 MT of copper, 11 percent higher than in Q2, but down from 221,550 MT produced in Q3 2023. The production drop was largely attributed to the closure of Cobre Panama, which contributed 112,734 MT during the quarter last year. Cash costs came in at US$1.57 per pound during Q3, US$0.16 lower than the previous quarter. While the power deals pushed cash costs higher, the company mitigated costs through gold by-product credits during Q3, as well as higher copper production and lower fuel costs.
Both Kansanshi and Sentinel reported increased copper production during Q3. Kansanshi saw its highest levels since Q4 2021 with 49,810 MT, while Sentinel recorded copper production of 58,412 MT, an increase of 4,817 MT over Q2.
Shares of First Quantum reached a year-to-date high of C$20.70 on December 5.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 68.46 percent
Market cap: C$4.86 billion
Share price: C$12.23
Hudbay Minerals is a copper production and development company with operational mines in Peru and Canada. It also has projects in Peru and in the US. According to the company's Q3 results, the Constancia copper mine and neighboring Pampacancha satellite pit in Peru produced a combined 21,220 MT of copper in the three months ended on September 30, an increase over the 19,217 MT produced in the previous quarter.
In Canada, Hudbay’s 75 percent owned Copper Mountain mine in BC produced 6,736 MT of copper, and its wholly owned Snow Lake operations in Manitoba achieved record results in the quarter.
The operation produced 3,398 MT of copper, a 29 percent increase over Q2, when wildfires in the region impacted production. Both mines also produce gold and silver, and Snow Lake also produces zinc.
In addition to its mining assets, the company is advancing its Copper World project in Arizona, US. In its report for the first quarter, the company indicates that it is continuing to work on getting final state permits for the site and expects to receive them sometime in 2024. When complete, Copper World is expected to have a 20 year life.
According to a March 28 annual reserve and resource update, Copper World holds proven and probable average reserves of 385 million MT of ore grading 0.54 percent copper.
In an August 29 release, Hudbay announced it had received an aquifer protection permit from the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality. The company said the permit brings the project a step closer to being fully permitted.
The company is also working on its Mason project in Nevada, US. Hudbay is developing Mason as a long-term future asset with a 27 year mine life. A resource estimate shows a measured and indicated resource of 2.22 billion MT at an average grade of 0.29 percent copper, and an inferred resource of 237 million MT averaging 0.24 percent copper.
On May 24, Hudbay completed an upsized bought-deal offering, generating aggregate gross proceeds of US$402.5 million. The funds will be used for near-term growth initiatives, such as mill optimization at Copper Mountain.
Shares of Hudbay reached a year-to-date high of C$14.15 on May 20.
Article by Dean Belder; FAQs by Lauren Kelly.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, own shares of Northern Dynasty Minerals.
Securities Disclosure: I, Lauren Kelly, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
5 Best-performing Junior Copper Stocks on the TSXV in 2024
Copper supply and demand have tightened in recent years, creating price volatility.
In 2024, copper prices reached record levels, breaking through the US$5 per pound mark for the first time.
Copper is one of the most important metals for the emerging green economy. It is essential for transmitting electricity, and is needed to produce wind turbines, electric cars and a wide array of electronic devices.
Even though demand continues to increase yearly, supply is failing to keep up. This has been a primary factor in copper’s record-breaking 2024, but what does that mean for small-cap mining companies on the TSX Venture Exchange?
Below are the five best-performing junior copper stocks since the start of 2024. Data for this article was gathered on December 18, using TradingView's stock screener, and all companies had market caps of over C$10 million at that time.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 317.78 percent
Market cap: C$66.49 million
Share price: C$0.94
Koryx Copper is focused on the advancement of copper exploration projects in Namibia and Zambia. Its flagship asset is the Haib copper-molybdenum project located in Southern Namibia near the border with South Africa.
In an amended preliminary economic assessment (PEA) filed on January 8, the company indicated 20 million metric tons (MT) per year of ore processing with 85 percent copper recovery for a yearly production rate of 38,337 MT of London Metal Exchange copper metal and an additional 51,081 MT of copper sulfate.
The company is currently working toward releasing an enhanced PEA in mid-2025.
Since the start of 2024, Koryx has published various assay results from exploration at Haib, including on August 8, when the company provided final results from a Phase 1 drill program. The company highlighted near-surface grades of 0.3 percent copper over 44 meters, including an intersection of 0.5 percent copper over 8 meters.
President and CEO Pierre Léveillé said the program shows the deposit can deliver grades of over 0.3 percent copper for substantial widths in the project area, as well as above-average grades in the outer limits of the deposit.
Following the final results, Koryx released an updated resource estimate for Haib on September 10. Haib hosts an indicated resource of 1.46 million MT of contained copper from 414 million MT of ore at an average grade of 0.35 percent copper, plus an inferred resource of 1.14 million MT of copper from 345 million MT of ore at 0.33 percent copper.
On November 15, Koryx closed the third and final tranche of a non-brokered private placement, raising C$18 million. In the release, the company also noted it had begun an 8,200 meter Phase 2 drilling program at Haib. Additionally, it reported the start of Phase 2 metallurgical testwork as it works to de-risk its metallurgical processing plan.
Shares of Koryx reached a year-to-date high of C$1.24 on September 24.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 305.56 percent
Market cap: C$92.75 million
Share price: C$0.73
Explorer Hannan Metals is focused on advancing gold, silver and copper deposits in Latin America.
The San Martin project is a joint venture with the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC), a Japanese government agency established in 2004 to secure stable resources and fuel supplies. Under the terms of the agreement, JOGMEC can earn up to a 75 percent stake in the project if all its funding goals are met.
The site is located northeast of Tarapoto, Peru, and hosts a copper and silver system with 120 kilometers of combined strike. The Tabalosos target has shown grades of 4.9 percent copper and 62 grams per MT (g/t) silver over 2 meters.
Hannan also wholly owns the Valiente project, which hosts a previously unknown porphyry and epithermal mineralized belt within a 140 kilometer by 50 kilometer area containing copper, gold, molybdenum and silver.
Results from two channel samples were reported in early August, and they confirmed extensive leached copper mineralization at the Previsto Central prospect. The two channels, separated by 700 meters, had grades of 0.22 percent copper over 126 meters and 0.16 percent copper over 192 meters.
Hannan said the results continue to further the company's understanding of the mineralization system, with gold-rich areas at higher elevations that transition into copper-rich areas at lower elevations.
This was followed by news on October 8 that the company completed the first stage of an induced polarization (IP) geophysical survey at the Previsto prospect. Combined with its other data, the results confirmed a 6 kilometer by 6 kilometer copper-gold porphyry epithermal mineralization system and identified seven high-priority targets.
In the most recent update on the analysis of the IP survey on December 5, the company singled out two significant types of anomalies. There is a high-chargeability, low-resistivity zone covering 2.4 kilometers of strike up to a depth of 500 meters, with soil containing up to 0.23 parts per million gold, as well as high-chargeability, high-resistivity zones along 1 kilometer of strike that host boulders containing up to 1.98 g/t gold and 29 g/t silver.
Hannan announced on November 25 that it had received approval from the Peruvian government for a maiden drill program at Valiente’s Belen permit area. The approval allows 40 drill platforms over 702 hectares across three prospects.
Before drilling commences in the second quarter of 2025, the company said its next steps are to reapply for a certificate of non-existence of archaeological remains, which it expects before the end of 2024. It must also submit a permit application to initiate activities, which is expected in the first quarter of 2025.
Shares of Hannan reached a year-to-date high of C$0.87 on December 9.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 227.78 percent
Market cap: C$301.89 million
Share price: C$0.295
Sandfire Resources America is a copper development company focused on its Black Butte copper project, which is located east of Helena, Montana, in the US. In 2021, a state district court revoked the company's mine operating permit for Black Butte, halting construction activities for the underground mine.
Sandfire describes the property as one of the highest-grade undeveloped copper deposits in the world. According to a 2020 resource estimate, the project's Johnny Lee deposit holds measured and indicated resources of 10.9 million MT grading 2.9 percent copper for a total of 311,000 MT of contained copper.
Shares of Sandfire soared following a February 26 decision by the Montana Supreme Court to reinstate the company's mine operating permit. The win was a crucial step for construction of the mine to continue.
In its management discussion and analysis for the quarter ended on September 30, the company said that since December 2023 it had completed 10,000 meters of a planned 20,000 meters of drilling. Additionally, Sandfire said its main focus at the site was expanding the resource at the Johnny Lee lower copper zone. The latest measured and indicated estimations put grading at the zone at 6.8 percent copper from 1.2 million MT.
Sandfire is focused on improving Black Butte's economics as it works towards a final investment decision. The most recent update from the project came on December 18, when the company released an exploration update highlighting a high-grade copper intercept of 19.46 percent copper over 3.19 meters from a depth of 471.86 meters.
Although much of Sandfire’s focus in 2024 has been on the exploration and development of Black Butte, the company’s parent company, Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR), also has two copper-producing assets: Motheo in the Kalahari Copper Belt in Botswana and MATSA in the Iberian Pyrite Belt in Spain.
Shares of Sandfire reached a year-to-date high of C$0.395 on May 13.
Press ReleasesCompany Profile
Year-to-date gain: 203.57 percent
Market cap: C$36.89 million
Share price: C$0.425
Awalé Resources is a copper and gold explorer focused on its Odienné project in Côte D’Ivoire.
The site, located in the West African country’s northwest region, covers an area of 2,462 square kilometers across two granted permits and five under application; two are being advanced as part of an earn-in joint venture with major gold miner Newmont (TSX:NGT,NYSE:NEM). Newmont has the chance to earn up to 65 percent ownership of the permits via exploration expenditures of US$15 million and the delivery of a minimum 2 million ounce gold resource.
On May 15, Newmont advanced to the second phase of its earn-in agreement. The completion of Phase 1 of the agreement came after drilling at the Charger and BBM targets during early 2024 exploration.
For the final 14 percent of the earn-in agreement, Newmont is required to fund an additional US$10 million toward exploration of the project. Company CEO Andrew Chubb said that Awalé is on good footing to deliver exploration success between the funding from Newmont and Awalé's C$11.5 million bought-deal equity financing, closed on May 8.
Awalé has actively explored the project area throughout 2024. On December 5, it announced it had commenced a 4,000 meter diamond drill program at Odienné, which will focus on the BBM and Charger zones.
In the first update from the program on December 18, the company reported that it had expanded the trend at BBM to over 15 kilometers from the Fremen target in the south to the newly defined targets Boba and Fett in the north.
Awalé plans to complete a large IP survey in January 2025 on the entire BBM trend to help refine targets for a 7,000 meter reverse-circulation drill campaign set to begin in February.
Shares of Awalé reached a year-to-date high of C$0.98 on March 26.
Investor Kit
5. Lara Exploration (TSXV:LRA)
Year-to-date gain: 180 percent
Market cap: C$67.73 million
Share price: C$1.40
Lara Exploration is a copper miner, explorer and royalty generator focused on South America.
For 2024, its primary asset has been the Planalto copper project in the Carajas Mineral Province in Pará, Brazil. The property comprises five mineral tenements covering a total area of 3,867 hectares. More than 23,000 meters of drilling have been conducted, and three primary deposits — Homestead, Cupuzeiro and Planalto — have been identified.
The most recent news from the project came on October 17, when Lara filed the technical report for its maiden resource estimate, which outlines a total indicated resource of 252,800 MT of copper from 47.7 million MT of ore with an average grade of 0.53 percent copper. The report also outlines an inferred resource for Planalto of 548,900 MT of copper from 154 million MT of ore with an average grade of 0.36 percent copper.
Lara also owns a 5 percent net profit interest, along with a 2 percent net smelter return royalty, in the Celesta copper mine in Brazil. Its partners are private companies Tessarema Resources and North Extração de Minério.
On November 12, Lara announced that operations had restarted at the mine after it had been placed on care and maintenance while Tessarema worked to reinstate permits to the property. In the release, Lara said that mining and ore processing from stockpiles began in October and is expected to ramp up gradually over the coming months.
Shares of Lara reached a year-to-date high of C$1.60 on October 24.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Awalé Resources is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
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