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Warriedar Resources Limited (ASX: WA8) (Warriedar or the Company) provides further assay results from RC drilling at its Golden Range Project, located in the Murchison region of Western Australia (refer Figure 1).
HIGHLIGHTS:
- Drillhole AZRC003 from current RC drilling at the Golden Range Project was fast- tracked to the lab after significant antimony pXRF readings and visible stibnite.
- Assays for drillhole AZRC003 returned high-grade antimony including:
- 8m @ 2.17% Sb from 106m
- 2m @ 1.92% Sb from 122m
- Represents new antimony discovery approx. 250m north of the historic St Tropez pit, which is part of the group of historic pits now called ‘Azure Coast’ and which are located approx. 4km south of the main Ricciardo gold and antimony deposit.
- As with Ricciardo, gold was the sole focus of historical exploration at Azure Coast; antimony potential now to be assessed via systematic evaluation of historical data.
- Highlights clear potential for high-grade antimony mineralisation to be far more extensive (ie multiple deposits) along the main 70km-long shear at Golden Range.
- Ricciardo maiden antimony Mineral Resource Estimate underway.
- Current RC drill program is now complete with all residual assays pending.
The assays reported in this release are results for the first RC hole (AZRC003) of a nine-hole scout program (for 1470m drilled) along the group of five historic pits at Azure Coast. The existing gold Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) for this area is named Monaco-Sprite (refer Appendix 1) and no antimony mineralisation has previously been reported for Azure Coast (refer Figure 2).
Visible stibnite was reported in AZRC003 and antimony content was observed in initial pXRF evaluation (utilised on all holes). Samples from this hole were fast-tracked for laboratory analysis, with the returned assay results delivering an excellent interval of 8 metres at +2% Sb coincident with the zone where visible stibnite was observed.
Warriedar Managing Director and CEO, Amanda Buckingham, commented:
“The discovery of high-grade antimony mineralisation approximately 4km south of Ricciardo substantially enhances the prospectivity of the broader ‘Golden Corridor’ for this critical metal, along with the entire shear of the broader Golden Range Project. This outcome also follows the highly encouraging initial antimony metallurgical testwork results for Ricciardo that we released last week. While we are excited about this emerging opportunity, I want to emphasise again that pursuit of this opportunity will be in parallel with our growth-focussed gold drilling at Golden Range, which remains our current core focus.”
Figure 1: LEFT: The Golden Range and Fields Find Projects, with proximate mines, mills and projects. RIGHT: the Golden Corridor, a 25km stretch of gold deposits within the Golden Range Project.
Scout drilling and new high-grade antimony discovery at Azure Coast
The ‘Golden Corridor’ is located within Warriedar’s flagship Golden Range Project in the Murchison region of Western Australia (refer Figure 1). The Ricciardo deposit is the largest deposit within the ‘Golden Corridor’, with its Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) recently doubling to 948 koz gold (refer Appendix 1).
Following the success of the growth-focussed gold drilling on Ricciardo through 2024, the final RC drilling campaign for this year has focussed on scout drilling at Azure Coast (a group of historical pits located approximately 4 km south of Ricciardo and extending across a slightly longer strike length of approx. 2.6 km).
This nine-hole scout program (refer Figure 2 for drill hole collar locations) was designed to assess broader potential at Azure Coast (which has only historically been drilled to a typical depth of 120m, with a select few holes reaching approx. 170m below surface) and evaluate whether it should be the focus of a dedicated growth drilling campaign in 2025.
Click here for the full ASX Release
This article includes content from Warriedar Resources Limited, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
WA8:AU
Targeted Exploration Focus Delivers an Additional 471koz or 99% Increase in Ounces, and a Higher Grade for Ricciardo
HIGHLIGHTS:
- Updated Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) for the Ricciardo Deposit (part of the broader Golden Range Project) of 16.44 Mt @ 1.8 g/t Au for 947.5 koz gold.
- Represents a 99% increase in Ricciardo MRE contained gold ounces.
- Proven high-returning exploration with the increased Ricciardo MRE ounces delivered at an attractive all-in discovery cost of only approx. A$16/oz.
- High-quality resource additions given drilling focus on high-grade growth ounces with strong commercial potential.
- The updated Ricciardo MRE comprises:
- 467.5 koz @ 1.6 g/t Au open-pit gold Resource (75% M&I) (optimised pit shell constrained at A$3,300/oz)
- 480.0 koz @ 2.0 g/t Au underground gold Resource
- Critically, the Ricciardo system remains wide open at depth and along strike.
- Total Golden Range Project Mineral Resources now stand at over 1.28 Moz gold, a 58% increase from the previous level.
- This initial outcome validates the excellent potential for further growth within the broader 25km ‘Golden Corridor’ via the ongoing, simple strategy of targeting fresh rock extensions under shallow existing pits.
- RC drilling at the southern end of the ‘Golden Corridor’ targeting high-grade Resource growth is progressing well; 9 holes completed for 1,472 metres to date, assays pending.
Warriedar Managing Director and CEO, Amanda Buckingham, commented:
“This is the result we have been working towards all year. With less than 15,000m of targeted, efficient drilling we have added over 470 koz to the Ricciardo deposit, doubling the Resource.
We are excited by both the outcome itself, and the outlook that it delivers us for the wider corridor of gold deposits. The simple strategy of drilling below shallow open pits to find mineable ounces worked exceptionally well for our producing neighbours. The validity of this strategy is now beyond doubt, for us.
Not only is the Ricciardo system still wide open down-plunge, but the entire 25km long ‘Golden Corridor’ offers similar potential upside from such a relatively simple drilling focus.
In the middle of the infrastructure-rich southern Murchison, and located on existing Mining Leases, the opportunity in front of us is utterly irresistible.”
The Ricciardo Deposit
The Ricciardo Gold Deposit is located on existing mining leases 100% owned by WA8, in the Murchison Region, approximately 300 km east of Geraldton, and 420 km by road north-northeast of Perth. Sitting approximately 8km South of the Golden Range Mill on M59/421, and M59/458, within the Golden Range group of historic open pit mines and deposits.
Discovered in the 1990’s, open pit mining of the oxide resources commenced in 2001, and the plant entered Care & Maintenance twice (between July 2004 and 2009, and May 2010 to mid- 2013). Production was over 300 Koz before finally going into ongoing Care and Maintenance in August 2019.
The Ricciardo deposit is located 90km north of Capricorn Metals’ Mt Gibson Gold Project, 8kms south of the Company’s plant, 26km from the neighbouring Golden Grove processing facility and 40 km northeast of Vault Minerals’ high grade Rothsay gold mine (Figure 1).
Figure 1: The location of the Ricciardo gold deposit within the Golden Range Project; within the broader Southern Murchison region.
The Ricciardo gold system spans a strike length of approximately 2.3km, with very limited drilling having been undertaken below 100m depth prior to Warriedar drilling. Historical mining operations at Ricciardo were primarily focused on oxide material, with the transition and primary sulphides mineralisation not systematically explored.
Warriedar’s drilling of Ricciardo during CY2024 achieved excellent results, demonstrating high- grade extensions to the resource. The results demonstrated that the previously quantified resource is part of a much larger system.
Warriedar engaged independent mining consultants, Measured Group to update the Ricciardo MRE, previously reported 476Koz gold.1
The Ricciardo Gold Deposit consists of six semi-continuous historical open pit mines along the 2.3 km arcuate stretch of the Mougooderra Shear Zone, running north to south. These mines are named (from north to south) Silverstone North, Ardmore, Copse, Silverstone, Silverstone South, and Eastern Creek (Figure 2).
Figure 2: Drilling carried out by the Company during 2023 & 2024, which was used to update the MRE.
Click here for the full ASX Release
This article includes content from Warriedar Resources Limited, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
Continued Delivery of High Grade Antimony Mineralisation at Ricciardo
HIGHLIGHTS:
- Review of the antimony (Sb) potential at Ricciardo is complete with drillhole assay data confirming Sb mineralisation of significant thickness and grade exists below both the Ardmore pit (previously identified) and the Copse-Silverstone pits (newly identified), representing a potential combined strike length of approx. 1km.
- Multiple significant Sb intervals have been identified (reviewing both historic and WA8 drill hole assays), in addition to results recently released (* indicated below):
- Most of the Sb mineralisation appears to be located above the main gold zone, a distinct metallurgical positive for future processing and economic potential. Similarly to the gold mineralisation, the Sb zones remain wide open at depth.
- Only 11% of historical drill samples at Ricciardo were assayed for Sb. Retained pulp samples from historical holes are currently being tested with pXRF, with those favourable for significant Sb set to undergo laboratory multi element assay.
- An approx. 100kg high-grade sample of antimony mineralisation from Ricciardo has also been dispatched for scoping-level metallurgical testwork.
Warriedar Managing Director and CEO, Amanda Buckingham, commented:
“Following the recent high grade antimony intersections at Ricciardo, our initial review of the broader antimony potential has delivered further promise. An exceptionally high-grade antimony interval, as well as a much wider intersection, are now able to be placed in greater context. This context is a broader volume of antimony, not yet well-defined but with existing drilling showing serious scale and grade potential.
“Importantly, the high-grade antimony appears relatively discrete from higher-grade gold mineralisation, an excellent metallurgical outcome. While it remains early days, we are cautiously optimistic and have commenced initial metallurgical testing for potential processing and antimony recovery.
“While we are excited about this emerging opportunity at Ricciardo, I want to emphasise however that pursuit of this opportunity will be in parallel with our growth-focussed gold drilling at Golden Range, which remains our current core focus.”
Figure 1: The Golden Range and Fields Find Projects, with proximate mines, mills and projects.
Key Ricciardo context
The Ricciardo gold system spans a strike length of approximately 2.3km, with very limited drilling having been undertaken below 100m depth. Ricciardo possesses a current Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) of 8.7 Mt @ 1.7 g/t Au for 476 koz gold.1
Historical gold mining operations at Ricciardo were primarily focused on the oxide material, with the transition and primary sulphides mineralisation not systematically explored. Antimony was not a focus of previous exploration, with only about 11% of historic drill holes assayed for antimony.
The gold and antimony mineralisation at Ricciardo is predominantly hosted within intensely altered and deformed ultramafic units. The high-grade antimony-dominant mineralisation occurred later than the main gold events and generally sits above the high-grade gold mineralisation.
Click here for the full ASX Release
This article includes content from Warriedar Resources, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
Further Strong Extensional Diamond Drill Results from Ricciardo
HIGHLIGHTS:
- All residual assay results received from the recent 2,701m (27 holes) diamond drilling program at Ricciardo.
- Drilling underneath the Silverstone pit confirms the identified high-grade shoot continues at depth and at better than previously modelled grades:
- 13.7m @ 3.27 g/t Au and 0.36% Sb (4.04 g/t AuEq) from 253.3m, inc.
1.2m @ 9.00 g/t Au and 0.00% Sb (9.00 g/t AuEq) from 264.85m (RDRC046) - 22.6m @ 2.11 g/t Au and 0.29% Sb (2.71 g/t AuEq) from 294m, inc.
3m @ 7.22 g/t Au and 0.02 % Sb (7.26 g/t AuEq) from 312m (RDRC044)
- 13.7m @ 3.27 g/t Au and 0.36% Sb (4.04 g/t AuEq) from 253.3m, inc.
- Drilling from the Eastern Creek area, located at the southern end of Ricciardo, confirms down dip continuity with increasing grade and width at depth:
- 7.0m @ 2.54 g/t Au and 0.24% Sb (3.05 g/t AuEq) from 170m (RDRC060)
- 25.0m @ 1.23 g/t Au and 0.17% Sb (1.60 g/t AuEq) from 232m, inc.
6.8m @ 2.37 g/t Au and 0.37% Sb (3.16 g/t AuEq) from 250.2m (RDRC059)
- Update of Ricciardo Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) on track for Q4 2024.
- Aircore drilling program now in progress at the Golden Range Project targeting an underexplored section at the southern end of the 70-km long shear.
- Further growth-focussed Reverse Circulation (RC) drilling of the ‘Golden Corridor’ scheduled to commence in November.
The assays reported in this release are full results for the final 11 diamond holes (1,021m) from the recent 27-hole diamond tail program at Ricciardo. Results for the first 16 holes of this program have previously been reported (refer WA8 ASX releases dated 3 July 2024, 19 July 2024, 2 August 2024 and 26 August 2024).
Warriedar Managing Director and CEO, Amanda Buckingham, commented:
“This final set of diamond results from the recent Ricciardo drilling have really put a bow on the whole program for us. The broad-based extensional success delivered by this drilling is both real and exciting. The fact that these results are being delivered at what are still relatively shallow down-dip depths, and in such proximity to excellent surrounding infrastructure, also delivers excellent potential for the economic character of the anticipated resource additions at Ricciardo. It is my firm belief that we are just getting started in terms of the opportunity at Ricciardo, let alone within the larger ‘Golden Corridor’ and along the broader mineralised shear.”
Key Ricciardo context
The Ricciardo gold system is located within Warriedar’s flagship Golden Range Project in the Murchison region of Western Australia (refer Figures 1 and 2).
Ricciardo spans a strike length of approximately 2.3km, with very limited drilling having been undertaken below 100m depth. It possesses a current MRE of 8.7 Mt @ 1.7 g/t Au for 476 koz gold. 1 Importantly, historical mining operations at Ricciardo were primarily focused on oxide material, with the transition and primary sulphides mineralisation not systematically explored.
Figure 1: The Golden Range and Fields Find Projects, with proximate mines, mills and projects.
Figure 2: The ‘Golden Corridor’ within the Golden Range Project. The image on the right is gravity over shaded residualmagnetic RTP.
The most recent phase of RC and diamond drilling of Ricciardo has concluded. This release reports on the assays from the final 11 holes of the diamond program. These holes were predominantly located in the southern part of the Ricciardo deposit, focusing on down-dip extension where no previous drilling had been undertaken (refer Table 1 and Figure 3 for drill collar and relevant section locations).
All 11 holes returned significant intersections, delivering a further round of meaningful extensional success from the recent program (refer Table 2). All results are set to be incorporated into an update of the Ricciardo MRE, which remains on track for completion during Q4 2024.
Click here for the full ASX Release
This article includes content from Warriedar Resources, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
Further Step-Out Gold Success and High-Grade Antimony Discovery
HIGHLIGHTS:
- Assay results received for a further 1,102m of diamond drilling at Ricciardo.
- Extremely high-grade antimony (Sb) intersected in multiple holes below the Ardmore pit, including in RDRC067 above the main zone of high-grade gold mineralisation:
- 12.7m @ 4.98% Sb and 0.36 g/t Au (10.92 g/t AuEq*) from 229.2m
incl. 1.85m @ 28.50% Sb and 0.45 g/t Au (60.94 g/t AuEq) from 238.25m
- 12.7m @ 4.98% Sb and 0.36 g/t Au (10.92 g/t AuEq*) from 229.2m
- A wide zone of antimony mineralisation was encountered in hole RDRC001:
- 34m @ 1.0% Sb and 0.59 g/t Au (2.72 g/t AuEq) from 158.80m
- This newly identified and exceptionally high-grade Sb zone, along with the broader antimony potential at Ricciardo, demands prompt follow-up and evaluation.
- Further high-grade gold extension delivered below the Ardmore pit:
- 18m @ 3.41 g/t Au and 0.27% Sb (3.97 g/t AuEq) from 276m (RDRC048B) incl. 4.5m @ 9.90 g/t Au and 0.01% Sb (9.93 g/t AuEq) from 286.5m
- 1m @ 28.31 g/t Au and 2.18% Sb (32.92 g/t AuEq) from 286m (NMRC005)
- 42.6m @ 1.08 g/t Au and 0.05% Sb (1.17 g/t AuEq) from 253.38m (RDRC067)
- ‘Golden Corridor’ diamond drilling now complete, with 31 holes drilled for 3,300m.
- All residual diamond assays expected to be received by late September, with update of the Ricciardo Mineral Resource targeted for Q4 2024.
- Further growth-focussed RC drilling of the ‘Golden Corridor’ scheduled for H2 2024, as well as planned aircore drilling along select parts of the regional shear.
Warriedar Managing Director and CEO, Amanda Buckingham, commented:
“The results for these holes successfully demonstrate further extensional high-grade gold, and for the first time very high-grade antimony zones below the Ardmore pit area.
Given the relative absence of assaying for antimony in historical drilling at Golden Range, we are cautiously optimistic on the potential that might exist here. Moreover, the apparent zonation in RDRC067 is also highly encouraging for any future antimony development potential.
I want to emphasise however that pursuit of this opportunity will be in parallel with our growth-focussed gold drilling at Golden Range, which remains our current core focus.”
* Refer to page 8 of this release for full gold equivalent (AuEq) calculation methodology.
Figure 1: The Golden Range and Fields Find Projects, with proximate mines, mills and projects.
Key Ricciardo context
The Ricciardo gold system spans a strike length of approximately 2.3km, with very limited drilling having been undertaken below 100m depth. Ricciardo possesses a current MRE of 8.7 Mt @ 1.7 g/t Au for 476 koz gold.1 Historical mining operations at Ricciardo were primarily focused on oxide material, with the transition and primary sulphides mineralisation not systematically explored.
Due to the limited number of multi-element assays from historical drill holes at Ricciardo, other mineral potential (outside of gold) has also not been properly evaluated historically.
Figure 2: The ‘Golden Corridor’ within the Golden Range Project. The image on the right is gravity over shaded residual magnetic RTP.
The gold mineralisation at Ricciardo is predominantly hosted with intensified altered and deformed ultramafic units. It is important to note that the newly identified antimony-dominant mineralisation identified in RDRC067 (discussed below) sits above high-grade gold mineralisation in the same area, and may overprint the earlier gold mineralisation in some areas.
High-grade antimony zone discovery below the Ardmore pit
RDRC067 was designed to drill south to north along strike to better understand the structural controls within the Ricciardo deposit and assess the continuity of the ultramafic unit (Figure 3). All previous drill holes (by Warriedar and previous explorers) have been drilled eastward perpendicular to the known mineralised structure. RDRC067 was considered an important hole by the Warriedar technical team in order to confirm there are no additional structural controls and to provide further confidence in the geological model.
Figure 3: Plan view of Ricciardo deposit with current cross section locations annotated. The holes drilled in Q2/Q3 as part of the current program are highlighted in red. Additional holes are also outlined but not presented in below cross sections.
Unexpectedly, RDRC067 intersected significant high-grade antimony mineralisation from 229.2m to 241.9m downhole, returning 12.7m @ 4.98% Sb and 0.36 g/t Au (10.92 g/t AuEq) (Figure 4). Above this high-grade antimony zone, another significant zone was also identified from 183m to 198.1m downhole, returning 15.1m @ 1.42% Sb and 0.42 g/t Au (3.42 g/t AuEq) (Figure 4).
The antimony zones intersected by RDRC067 are interpreted to correlate with a lower grade antimony zone intersected in RDRC038 and RDRC049 (Figure 4). Encouragingly, drillhole RDRC001 returned a wide zone of antimony mineralisation: 34m @ 1.0% Sb and 0.59 g/t Au (2.72 g/t AuEq). Further work is required to determine the geometry and extent of the antimony mineralisation.
RDRC067 concluded at 296.96m downhole depth, within the gold mineralisation domain, as the target depth of the hole had been reached. As RDRC067 is not drilled perpendicular to the Mougooderra Shear, which is the main control of the mineralisation, it is important to note that the intersected thickness does not reflect the true thickness of the mineralisation.
Click here for the full ASX Release
This article includes content from Warriedar Resources, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
Infill Drilling of Ricciardo Deposit Delivers Significant Gold Mineralisation
HIGHLIGHTS:
- Assay results for a further two (2) diamond tails at Ricciardo confirm a 77m wide (not true width) mineralisation zone 180m down-dip of the current Resource beneath the Ardmore pit, including a high-grade shoot.
- Significant gold intervals include:
- 7.2m @ 4.51 g/t Au from 232.8m, incl. 3m @ 9.03 g/t Au from 234m
- 10.5m @ 1.53 g/t Au from 218.8m
- 3.9m @ 3.35 g/t Au from 218.8m
- 23.2m @ 1.60 g/t Au from 270.8m
- Mineralisation in this area is structurally complex, extends to a vertical depth of ~ 460m and remains open.
- Ricciardo sits in the middle of the 25km-long ‘Golden Corridor’ at Golden Range, which hosts six (6) discrete deposits (18 historic pits) that are all open at depth and possess immediate growth potential.
- Current diamond drilling program (now extended to 3,000m) at Ricciardo and M1 set to be completed in mid-August, with all assays expected by late-September.
- Update of the Ricciardo MRE is targeted for Q4 2024.
- Further growth-focussed drilling of the ‘Golden Corridor’ scheduled for H2 2024.
The results reported in this release are for a further two (2) of the diamond holes drilled in the current program. Results for the first twelve (12) diamond holes of the current program were previously reported (refer WA8 ASX releases dated 3 July 2024 and 19 July 2024).
The results for these two (2) holes again demonstrate wide infill of the broader Ricciardo deposit at depth, further validating the outstanding Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) growth potential that exists at Ricciardo and along the broader ‘Golden Corridor’ trend (refer Figure 2).
Warriedar Managing Director and CEO, Amanda Buckingham, commented:
“The outcomes of these two diamond tails are significant, given that they represented substantial depth step-outs under the shallow Ardmore pit. A 77m wide mineralised zone (downhole) with a central high-grade shoot (4.51 g/t), 180m below the MRE is a great result. We don’t fully understand the structural geometry here yet, but we are delighted that the deeper part of hole 49 validates the drill results from a previous explorer – confirming the deposit extends to about 460m vertical depth and retains some good grade (3.19 g/t). Excellent progress.
We continue to drill ahead at Ricciardo as part of the current diamond program, with follow-up growth drilling activities in planning for the remainder of H2 2024.”
Figure 1: The Golden Range and Fields Find Projects. Mines and projects within trucking distance of the Warriedar tenure are shown.
Ricciardo deposit
The Ricciardo gold system spans a strike length of approximately 2.3km, with very limited drilling having been undertaken below 100m depth. Ricciardo possesses a current MRE of 8.7 Mt @ 1.7 g/t Au for 476 koz gold.1 The oxide material at Ricciardo has been mined by previous operators.
Click here for the full ASX Release
This article includes content from Warriedar Resources, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
What is the January Effect? (Updated 2024)
In this article
What is the January effect?
The January effect is a theory based on a pattern that analysts have seen year after year: stocks seem to fare better during January than they do during other months of the year. Generally, small-cap companies are affected the most by the January effect, as large stocks are typically less volatile.
The first report of the January effect came in 1942 from Sidney Wachtel, an investment banker from Washington, DC.
Since then, experts have debated possible causes for this phenomenon. Many believe the January effect is triggered by tax-loss selling in the month of December. Tax-loss selling, or tax-loss harvesting as it is sometimes called, is an investment strategy in which individual investors sell stocks at a loss in order to reduce capital gains earned on investments. Because capital losses are tax deductible, they can be used to offset capital gains to reduce an investor’s tax liability on their tax return.
As an example of tax-loss selling for tax savings, imagine if an investor bought 1,000 shares of a company for US$53 each. They could sell the shares and take a loss of US$3,000 in the event that the shares declined in value to US$50 each. The US$3,000 loss from the sale could then be used to offset gains elsewhere in the investor’s portfolio during that tax year.
For more information about the strategy, plus the deadlines, check out our guide to tax-loss selling.
It’s worth noting that tax-loss selling or tax-loss harvesting is a trading strategy that generally involves investments with huge losses, and, because of this, these sales generally focus on a relatively small number of securities within the public markets. However, if a large number of sellers were to execute a sell order in tandem, the price of the security would fall.
Central to the January effect idea is that once selling season has come to a close, shares that have become largely oversold have an opportunity to bounce back. For example, investors who have sold losing stocks before the end of the year may be driven to repurchase those stocks, although they would have to wait for 30 days to pass, as required by the superficial loss rule.
Regardless of whether you’re buying or selling, Steve DiGregorio, portfolio manager at Canoe Financial, recommends that you act swiftly and aggressively during this time of year as “liquidity will dry up.” He has earmarked the second and third week of December as the ideal window to sell or buy at a low point. This is ahead of the “Santa Claus rally,” the trading days around the last week of December when stocks tend to rise ahead of a healthier market in January.
These circumstances have given rise to the alternate notion that stocks get a boost in January because many people receive holiday bonuses in December, providing them with greater investment income. Perhaps it’s one or the other — or perhaps, as with most things, a combination of drivers produces the January effect.
Is the January effect real?
While some say that the January effect was once an efficient market hypothesis that is now fading some mutual fund managers, portfolio managers and institutional investors say it isn’t real at all now. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) first heralded the death of the January effect back in 2017, pointing to two decades worth of analysis that showed returns diminishing in the month of January compared to historical figures going back to 1974.
Those in the “not real” camp claim that while this event may have been tangible back in the 20th century, recent data looks much more random.
Illustrating this, the graphs below from US Global Investors compare the S&P 500’s (INDEXSP:.INX) average performance by month from the 30 years through 1993 and the 30 years through 2023. While January came in first during the first period with average gains of 1.85 percent, since 1993 it has averaged gains of 0.28 percent, putting it in eighth place.
Chart via US Global Investors.
Investopedia's more recent analysis continues to support the "January no-effect" position. Looking back three decades since the 1993 inception of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY), investment advisor and global market strategist James Chen points out that in the last 31 years "there have been 18 winning January months (58%) and 13 losing January months (42%), making the odds of a gain only slightly higher than the flip of a coin."
The past two years, the markets have performed strongly in January. January 2023 saw the S&P 500 jump 5.8 percent over the course of the month after falling at the end of December. However, markets fell back down through February and March, making the rally short lived.
In January 2024, the S&P 500 dipped slightly at the start of the month but ultimately closed January up 2.12 percent higher than its open. Unlike the previous year, the index continued that upward trend through the end of March, at which point it was up 10.73 percent from the beginning of the year.
How can investors capitalize on the January effect?
It can be easy to get swept up in hearsay, and with debate still in play, the January effect is a risky business. Use your judgment, or the judgment of a professional, and don’t get sucked into chasing prices. It’s best not to base your investment strategy on the potential of a seasonal market mantra that reliable evidence shows no longer holds true.
For investors looking to capitalize on a potential rally due to the January effect, here are a few strategies to consider.
- Invest early — One approach is to invest in Q4 of the calendar year in order to essentially place your bets in anticipation of the January effect. If you’re inclined to participate in tax-loss selling, then you could time your buying period for the end of December and hope to harness both phenomena.
- Buy stocks with small market caps and micro caps — This can be a good strategy because these are the stocks that typically see the most movement during this period. As noted, larger companies are typically more stable. Still, that stability comes paired with lower risk, so risk-averse investors should stick with larger stocks.
- Buy dips in stocks you know well and feel confident will return to higher prices — It’s often a good plan to go with what you know, and it’s possible that stocks already in your portfolio will wobble due to tax-loss selling, presenting a lucrative buying opportunity. Just be sure to avoid buying stocks you sold at a capital loss during the prior 30 day period as discussed earlier, as the IRS will view that as a wash.
This is an updated version of an article first published by the Investing News Network in 2018.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Lauren Kelly, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
