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Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report
Brightstar Resources Limited (Brightstar or the Company) (ASX: BTR) is pleased to present its Quarterly Report and Cash Flow Report.
Highlights:
- A positive mine restart study was completed for the development of the Menzies and Laverton Projects with compelling and robust operational and financial outputs1:
- An initial mine production target of 5.28 Mt @ 2.00 g/t Au for 322,617oz over 8 years
- Average recovered ounces of +45koz pa in first five years, with average LOM production of ~40kozpa
- NPV8 of A$103 million and IRR of 79% (@ A$2,900/oz gold price)
- Payback of 1.5 years on pre-production capital costs of A$22 million
- Mining commenced at the Selkirk Deposit within the Menzies Project with gold production and sales anticipated in Q1 CY2024 at current record high gold prices of +$3,100/oz
- Cork Tree Well drilling returned significant extension and infill results up to 109 g/t Au2:
- 1m @ 109.6 g/t Au from 167m and 3m @ 8.7 g/t Au from 197m (BTRRC224) – Delta
- 18m @ 2.75 g/t Au from 83m (BTRRC225) – Delta
- 9m @ 3.05 g/t Au from 203m (BTRRC229) – Cork Tree Well
- Drilling at the Menzies Gold Project returned multiple high grade gold intersections:
- Aspacia3,4:
- 1m @ 39.58 g/t Au from 56m (MGPRC020)
- 1m @ 12.12 g/t Au from 113m (MGPRC014)
- 1m @ 16.16 g/t Au, within 4m @ 4.79 g/t Au from 112m (MGPRC025)
- Link Zone4:
- 1m @ 13.95 g/t Au from 45m (MGPRC036)
- 4m @ 3.21 g/t Au from 40m (MGPRC034)
- Aspacia3,4:
- A follow up RC drilling program has been planned and a drill rig will be mobilising to site to complete ~5,500m of drilling at Menzies in this quarter
- Mining commenced at the Selkirk Joint Venture in Menzies by our JV partner BML Ventures
- Menzies gold and lithium tenure expanded in deal with Ardea Resources (ASX:ARL)
- Earn-in Agreement executed with DevEx Resources (ASX:DEV) for non-gold rights at Goongarrie
- $3.5 million raised via a Share Placement to accelerate exploration and development activities
Operations Overview
Key activities for Brightstar Resources Limited (Brightstar or the Company) (ASX: BTR) during the September Quarter are outlined below.
Mine Restart Study1
A positive mine restart study (Study) was completed in September for the development of the 100% owned Menzies and Laverton Gold Projects. Highlights from the study include:
- Initial mine production target of approximately 5.28Mt @ 2.00g/t Au for 322,617 oz over approximately 8 years
- Average recovered ounces of +45koz pa in first five years, with average LOM production of
- ~40kozpa and strong potential to increase production profile and mine life
- Average recovered ounces of +45koz pa in first five years, with average LOM production of ~40kozpa and strong potential to increase production profile and mine life
- The staged mine plan provides early cashflow from the Menzies Gold Project to organically fund the restart of the Laverton Gold Project
- Total project pre-production capital of approximately $22 million
- Rapid restart with first Menzies gold within six months of mining commencement and first Laverton gold within nine months from the commencement of processing plant upgrades
- Study highlights robust financials and a competitive cost profile utilising conservative pricing assumptions and current cost environment:
- Net Present Value (unlevered, pre-tax, 8%) of A$103 million using a gold price of A$2,900/oz
- Pre-tax internal rate of return (IRR) of 79%
- NPV8 at current spot gold price (A$3,000/oz) of A$128m and IRR of 106%
- Payback period of 1.5 years, underpinned by 70% of material processed being Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources
- All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) of A$2,041/oz
- Strong returns on investment driven by low capital start-up metrics delivers a readily fundable project development:
- NPV / Capex ratio of 4.6x
- Capital Intensity of A$559/oz (pre-production capital divided by annual gold production)
The very encouraging Scoping Study highlighted the strong economic case for recommencing mining operations at Brightstar’s Laverton and Menzies Gold Projects, with all Mineral Resources included in this study contained within granted Mining Leases in the Tier-1 mining jurisdiction of Western Australia.
The total estimated net revenue for the project is estimated as $899.6M using a gold price of AUD $2,900/oz fixed for the life of the project. C1 costs for the project were estimated as $570M with total operating unit cash costs of $1,765/oz produced. The estimated net free cash produced is approximately $153M over an eight year production period.
The mining material included within the life of mine plan contemplated in the Study are comprised of 66% in the Measured or Indicated Mineral Resources category, and 34% classified as Inferred Mineral Resources. A summary of the mining physicals are presented in Table 1.
Click here for the full ASX Release
This article includes content from Brightstar Resources, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
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Brightstar Resources
Investor Insight
A gold-focused emerging gold producer with a clear pathway to production growth, Brightstar Resources presents a compelling investment case driven by its mining and development hubs strategy and a district-scale resource opportunity.
Overview
The price of gold stays strong. In April 2024, the yellow metal’s price passed US$2,400 per ounce for the first time. The reason is multifaceted. The world teeters on the brink of a severe recession while some markets attribute the increase to safe haven rush. Amidst ballooning interest rates, bank failures and falling bond yields, demand for gold continues to rise. At this precise moment, gold is simultaneously an excellent portfolio diversifier and a compelling hedge against ongoing inflation — particularly if one invests in the right company.
Brightstar Resources (ASX:BTR) aims to be that company. An emerging mining and development company, Brightstar occupies a strategic land position of roughly 1,200 square kilometers in the Sandstone Greenstone Belt, 300 square kilometers in the Laverton Tectonic Belt and 80 square kilometers of the Menzies Shear Zone.
The company also owns an existing processing facility that can potentially provide tremendous shareholder value in a low-capital cost restart scenario.
That plant, once fully refurbished and operational, could prove a key differentiator for the company, enabling fast gold production at a low capital cost. This is especially noteworthy given that many other gold companies trading on the ASX are largely focused on greenfield exploration and development. Even once those companies discover a promising resource, mining and processing facilities would still need to be built, undertakings which can incur significant upfront capital costs and take several years.
Brightstar's Laverton gold assets are all centered on a 100 percent-owned 300-square-kilometer tenure in the Laverton Tectonic Zone and all within 70 kilometers of the Laverton Processing Plant. Additionally, all resources within this zone are open along strike and at depth. Only minor drilling programs have been conducted in recent years, paving the way for significant exploration upside with the potential for further regional and greenfields discoveries.
Brightstar also owns 100 percent of the Menzies Gold Project, a contiguous land package of granted mining leases over a strike length of roughly 20 kilometers along the Menzies Shear Zone and adjacent to the Goldfields Highway.
In 2023 and 2024, the company announced a mineral resource upgrade to the Cork Tree Well deposit (Laverton gold project) and also delivered two maiden mineral resource estimates at the Link Zone and Aspacia deposits (Menzies gold project). This has grown the total group MRE by approximately 150 koz gold through organic exploration.
The company has also acquired 100 percent of the shares and options of Linden Gold Alliance, a gold producer, developer and explorer with existing mineral resources of 350 koz @ 2.1 g/t gold near Brightstar in the Laverton district. Brightstar’s MRE has reached 1.1 Moz gold across the Menzies and Laverton projects, with an additional 0.35 Moz gold in resources added after the successful acquisition of Linden Gold Alliance.
In August 2024, Brightstar entered into a scheme implementation deed to acquire 100 percent of Alto Metals (ASX:AME), which owns the Sandstone gold project located in East Murchison. The project has a current mineral resource of 1.05 Moz of gold at 1.5 g/t.
Brightstar also completed the acquisition of the gold rights at the Montague East gold project (MEGP) from Gateway Mining Limited (ASX:GML). The project is located 70 km from the Sandstone gold project. The acquisition adds a further 9.6 Mt @ 1.6 g/t gold for 0.5 Moz gold to Brightstar’s JORC Mineral Resource Estimate, giving the company a total mineral endowment of 38.3 Mt @ 1.6 g/t gold for 2.0 Moz gold.
The acquisition of the MGEP from Gateway Mining and 100 percent of Alto’s shares creates a third district-scale resource base for the company called the Sandstone Hub. Upon consolidation of the Laverton, Menzies and Sandstone hubs, Brightstar’s mineral resources would reach 3 Moz at 1.5g/t gold.
Subsequent to the deal with Alto Metals, Brightstar entered into a $4 million drill-for-equity agreement with Topdrill to aggressively advance the consolidated Sandstone gold project. The deal strengthens Brightstar's financial capacity to fulfill its multi-hub exploration and development strategy, which includes the Menzies, Laverton and Sandstone hubs.
Company Highlights
- Brightstar Resources is an ASX-listed mining and development company with more than 3 million ounces of gold resources and an on-site processing infrastructure across its project locations in Laverton, Menzies and Sandstone in Western Australia.
- Brightstar's mineral assets are situated across roughly 300 square kilometers of 100-percent-owned land in the Laverton Tectonic Zone and ~80 square kilometers in the high-grade Menzies Shear Zone.
- The Laverton Gold project has a mineral resource of 9.7 Mt @ 1.6 g/t gold for 511 koz gold and the Menzies gold project has 13.8 Mt @ 1.3g/t gold for 595 koz gold.
- In 2023, the company completed a scoping study into the development of its Menzies and Laverton gold projects and the refurbishment and restart of its processing plant in Laverton.
- In 2023 and 2024, Brightstar completed a small-scale mining joint venture with BML Ventures which involved a 50/50 profit-sharing agreement to exploit the Selkirk deposit at Menzies. In April 2024, Brightstar announced that this joint venture delivered a net profit to Brightstar of $6.5 million.
- In June 2024, the company successfully acquired all of the issued ordinary shares and options in Linden Gold Alliance, a gold producer, developer and explorer with existing mineral resources of 350 koz @ 2.1 g/t gold near Brightstar in the Laverton district.
- As part of the merger with Linden Gold, Brightstar released a scoping study into Linden’s development-ready Jasper Hills gold project, which delivered key metrics including:
- 140 koz mined over 3.75 years (35 koz pa)
- Net present value of AU$99 million
- Internal rate of return of 736 percent
- Pre-production capital requirements of $12 million
- All-in sustaining costs of AU$1,972/oz
- Jasper Hills is located just 50 km SE of Brightstar’s processing plant in the Laverton gold project
- Brightstar has recently completed the acquisition of the gold rights at the Montague East gold project (MEGP) from Gateway Mining Limited (ASX:GML), and has entered into an agreement to acquire Alto Metals (ASX:AME) further creating the company’s third district-scale resource base known as the Sandstone Hub.
- Brightstar plans to continue generating shareholder value through a combination of development and strategic acquisitions along with some exploration.
Key Projects
Laverton Hub
Brightstar’s Laverton hub is comprised of the Cork Tree Well, Beta and Alpha project areas with the addition of the Second Fortune gold mine and the Jasper Hills projects.
Highlights:
- Cork Tree Well, Alpha and Beta have current total JORC mineral resource estimate of 9.7 Mt @ 1.6 g/t gold for 511 koz (52 percent measured and indicated category). All mineral resources are on granted mining leases
- Cork Tree Well (6.4 Mt at 1.4 g/t gold for 303 koz gold)
- Alpha (1.4 Mt at 2.3 g/t gold for 106 koz gold)
- Beta (1.9 Mt at 1.7 g/t gold for 102 koz gold)
- Main project area Cork Tree Well is open at depth and along strike with recent drilling results of 34.4 meters at 7.94 g/t gold from 43.5 meters (CTWMET004) and 27.6 meters at 17.8 g/t gold from 51 m (CTWMET003)
- Second Fortune has a mineral resource estimate head grade of ~11g/t gold with an average ore body width of ~0.6 meters.
- Jasper Hills is located 50 km from Brightstar’s existing processing facility along a wholly-owned private haul road, allowing unimpeded, direct access to both projects
- Permitted, previously mined and production-ready
- Last mined by current owners in 2020 with 23,000 oz gold mined
- Scoping Study outcomes include:
- Pre-production capex of $12 million required (maximum capital drawdown)
- Open pit mine at Lord Byron and underground mine at Fish
- Production of 141 koz over four years (35 koz per annum)
- LOM EBITDA of $135 million (@ AU$3,000/oz)
Menzies Hub
The Menzies Hub comprises a tenement holding of a contiguous land package of granted mining leases over a strike length of more than 20 km. The majority of deposits hosted along the Menzies Shear Zone are located adjacent to Goldfields Highway in Menzies (130km north of Kalgoorlie).
Highlights:
- Total Current Resource: 13.7 Mt at 1.3 g/t gold for 595 koz gold (36 percent measured and indicated)
- September 2023 scoping study showed the simultaneous development of open pit mining at Lady Shenton system and underground mining at Yunndaga:
- 1.9 Mt @ 1.63 g/t Au (100 koz) in open pit mining at Lady Shenton
- 650 kt @ 2.91 g/t (60 koz) in underground mining at Yunndaga
- Low capex of $22 million
- Significant opportunities to find virgin discoveries and brownfields mineral resource growth:
Sandstone Hub
The consolidated Sandstone project is over 100 km from existing third-party milling operations in the Murchison. This third processing hub boasts Alto’s Sandstone project with a mineral resource of 1.05 Moz at 1.4 g/t gold and Gateway’s Montague gold project with a mineral resource of 0.5 Moz @ 1.6 g/t gold.
Brightstar aims to fast-track the development timetable through:
- A focused, multi-rig infill drill out to take the inferred mineralisation into measured and indicated status to underpin mining studies and project advancement
- The application of Brightstar’s dedicated in-house geological and mining engineering team to retain crucial project IP and fast-tracked mining studies;
Brightstar Processing Facility
Situated close to Brightstar's existing mineral assets at Laverton, the Brightstar Processing Plant provides the company with a considerable operational head start over its peers.
Highlights:
- Extensive Infrastructure: Current facilities at the plant include two ball mills, a power station and gravity and elution circuits. Other infrastructure includes:
- A tailings storage dam
- An on-site process water pond
- A 60-person accommodation camp
- An airstrip at the Cork Tree Well Project
- Vehicles and equipment include a forklift, bobcat, two loaders, multiple light vehicles and a 30-tonne crane.
- A Leg Up Over Competitors: The presence of pre-existing processing infrastructure represents significant time savings compared to greenfields development. Brightstar had an independent valuation completed which valued the processing plant at AU$60 million in replacement value.
- Low Upfront Capital Cost: As part of the scoping study released in September 2023, GR Engineering estimated a capital cost requirement to refurbish and expand the milling capacity would cost just AU$18.5 million.
- Close to Existing Assets: Brightstar's major development projects — Cork Tree Well, Jasper Hills, Beta and Alpha — are all close to the plant.
Gold doré bars (BTR005 – BTR016) poured on 9 March 2024
Management Team
Alex Rovira - Managing Director
Alex Rovira is a qualified geologist and an experienced investment banker having focused on the metals and mining sector since 2013. Rovira has experience in ASX equity capital markets activities, including capital raisings, IPOs and merger and acquisitions.
Richard Crookes - Non-executive Chairman
Richard Crookes has over 35 years’ experience in the resources and investments industries. He is a geologist by training having previously worked as the chief geologist and mining manager of Ernest Henry Mining in Australia.
Crookes is managing partner of Lionhead Resources, a critical minerals investment fund and formerly an investment director at EMR Capital. Prior to that he was an executive director in Macquarie Bank’s Metals Energy Capital (MEC) division where he managed all aspects of the bank’s principal investments in mining and metals companies.
Andrew Rich - Executive Director
Andrew Rich is a degree qualified mining engineer from the WA School of Mines and has obtained a WA First Class Mine Managers Certificate. Rich has a strong background in underground gold mining with experience predominantly in the development of underground mines at Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS) and Westgold Resources (ASX:WGX).
Ashley Fraser - Non-executive Director
Ashley Fraser is an accomplished mining professional with over 30 years experience across gold and bulk commodities. Fraser was a founder of Orionstone (which merged with Emeco in a $660-million consolidation) and is a founder/owner of Blue Cap Mining and Blue Cap Equities.
Jonathan Downes - Non-executive Director
Jonathan Downes has over 30 years’ experience in the minerals industry and has worked in various geological and corporate capacities. Experienced with gold and base metals, he has been intimately involved with the exploration process through to production. Downes is currently the managing director of Kaiser Reef, a high grade gold producer, and non-executive director of Cazaly Resources.
Matthew Bowles – Non-executive Director
Matthew Bowles is a senior corporate finance executive with extensive public corporate advisory, private equity and capital markets experience in the resources sector. Bowles has successfully negotiated domestic and cross border corporate funding, joint venture and M&A transactions for a number of ASX listed companies in Africa, the Americas and Australia. He was previously chief development officer for a West African focused ASX listed company. He commenced his career with Rio Tinto, working in corporate and commercial roles for nine years, before moving to London to work in banking and finance. Since his return to Australia, Bowles has held senior roles with global advisory firms, focusing on the resources sector. Bowles holds a Bachelor of Business, is a member of CPA Australia and a Fellow of the Financial Services Institute of Australia.
Dean Vallve – Chief Operating Officer
Dean Vallve holds technical qualifications in geology & mining engineering from the WA School of Mines, an MBA, and a WA First Class Mine Managers Certificate. Vallve was previously in senior mining and study roles at ASX listed mid-cap resources companies Hot Chili (ASX:HCH) and Calidus Resources (ASX:CAI).
Successful $30m placement supports production growth in 2025
BTR accelerates Second Fortune high-grade mine development
AME: Scheme of Arrangement Becomes Effective
AME: Supreme Court of Western Australia approves Scheme
Black Swans, White Swans and Trump’s Clash with the Fed
The Trump administration’s ability to reign in government spending, quash inflation and bolster the economy were the most prevalent topics during the popular economy panel at the New Orleans Investment Conference.
Moderated by Adrian Day, president Adrian Day Asset Management, this year’s discussion featured James Lavish, Jim Bianco, Dr. Mark Skousen, Brent Johnson and James Grant. The expert group began the discussion by debating the potential economic impact Donald Trump could have, highlighting contradictions in his policies.
Johnson, who is CEO of Santiago Capital, pointed out that Trump's anti-inflation stance conflicts with his push for a weak US dollar and tariffs, which Johnson likened to global rate hikes.
“I would say that Trump's policies in many ways contradict each other in some way,” he said.
“Sometimes he will say, 'I want to kill inflation,' but then he will also say he wants a weak dollar. And then the next sentence, he will say, 'The greatest word in the world is tariffs,'" Johnson explained.
“The reality is, even if he gets his rate cuts, tariffs are basically like a rate hike for the rest of the world, because it's going to mean less dollars circulating outside the US. And that has tremendous implications for the global economy.”
Skousen, an economist and author, countered Johnson’s stance, asserting that Trump favors a strong dollar.
“Trump is known for 'king dollar.' He wants a strong dollar. I don't know where he got the weak dollar business,” he said. “Make America Great Again is all about making the dollar strong.”
Skousen then took aim at Trump’s proposed 20 percent tariff on imports, saying it isn't likely pass in Congress.
“Economists across the board have done study after study showing that tariffs are bad long term and short term for the country. Donald Trump was asleep when he took econ at the Wharton School, because he should know better than to push that agenda,” he said.
DOGE Commission and Trump tariff talk
Next up, Grant, a financial journalist and historian, pointed to the redundancy in Trump’s appointments for the Department of Government Efficiency, also referred to as the DOGE Commission.
“If you want to bury an idea in Washington, form a commission,” Grant quipped. “The DOGE Commission, the directive on government efficiency, ladies and gentlemen, has two CEOs.”
He added, “To bring down government spending and to reduce the growth in public debt, President-elect Trump would not have said he would never touch entitlements — but he said that."
Ultimately Grant believes “the rhetoric is stronger than the intention.”
The panelists also explored potential friction between Trump and the Federal Reserve, speculating on whether Trump will clash with or attempt to dismiss Chair Jerome Powell.
“Let's talk about the president-elect, Donald Trump, and who is perceived to be the second most powerful person in Washington — that is the Federal Reserve chairman,” said Bianco, president and macro strategist at Bianco Research.
“Trump is not going to reappoint Powell, but Powell knew that he wasn’t going to get reappointed; even if Harris won, she was probably going to appoint (Lael) Brainard to replace him in May of '26," he went on to note.
While Trump is unlikely to reappoint Powell at the end of his term as Fed chair, Bianco does believe Trump is going to make it challenging for Powell to operate.
"Trump is not, I don't think, going to fire Powell. I don't think he wants to have the spectacle,” he said. “He'll just threaten to fire him every week, and blame everything, including male pattern baldness, on Powell.”
After the laughter from the audience dissipated, Bianco warned that Trump has previously said he would like to be both POTUS and Fed chair — something that has never been done in the country's history.
Trump’s relationship with the Fed is likely to start on bumpy terms as Powell works to reduce inflation.
“The Fed might be done cutting rates, and Trump wouldn't be wrong to say, 'Boy, did that look very political. You were cutting rates before the election like crazy, 50 basis points. Then I (get elected) and you stop?' That could wind up becoming a narrative early in the Trump administration, his stressed relationship with the Fed chairman."
Although Trump would like to wield more power over the Fed, during a November 8 press conference, Powell told reporters he won't resign if Trump asks, nor does the president-elect have the power to fire him.
Lavish, managing partner at the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, also pointed to Trump’s double speak as a serious problem, heading into the next four years. “Trump speaks in contradictions,” he told the audience, explaining that while Trump talks tough on tariffs, they may be more rhetorical than actionable.
He also noted that Trump’s "drill, baby, drill" stance aims to reduce US energy costs, which would lower inflation — yet his push for a booming stock market and strong economy could fuel inflation instead.
Trump’s pressure on the Fed to maintain easy monetary policy reflects his desire for market highs, despite criticizing Powell. Cutting federal spending significantly seems unlikely, as trimming entitlements or laying off workers would barely dent the budget. Ultimately, Trump's policies may favor liquidity, potentially keeping inflation elevated.
Black swans vs. white swans
At the end of the discussion Day, gave each panelist 45 seconds to describe what they believe are the potential economic black and white swan events on the horizon.
Skousen said it could be positive or negative if Trump imitates Argentinian President Javier Milei’s economic policies.
“(Milei) is doing a lot of really good things with really trying to reduce government and reduce the national debt, which is a problem and is headed for a crisis," he said.
Trump and Milei share a populist, anti-establishment outlook, but their economic policies reflect different approaches. Trump's strategy emphasizes protectionism, tariffs and "America First" nationalism, contrasting with Milei's free-market libertarianism, which includes proposals like dollarizing Argentina's economy and drastically reducing state involvement.
Building on Skousen's stance, Johnson stressed the importance of Trump being steadfast.
“I think the potential white swan is that most of the success that is attributed to Milei in Argentina is because he has hit the ground running. He hasn't slowed down," he commented.
"He's done exactly what he said he would do, and he keeps charging 100 miles an hour. If Trump does something similar, he has a better chance than is currently expected. But if he slows down, then they'll eat him alive."
Bianco underscored that the economy is currently at its full potential, driven by fiscal stimulus.
He then cautioned that if the Fed continues to cut interest rates, it could push long-term yields even higher instead of curbing inflation. This might trigger a sudden bond market collapse, reminiscent of the 2019 repo market spike.
“If the Fed wants to continue to cut rates, they're just going to continue to drive long-term yields higher and higher and higher, because they're not fighting inflation,” said Bianco.
“And that could very well turn into a black swan event. A white swan event would be the opposite.”
Lavish also warned of potential trouble in the bond market.
“(If) we have some sort of event like you saw in the fall of 2019, where you saw the repo market spike up, whether that happens because of policy error by the Fed or for some other reason, that's a black swan event,” he said. “The white swan event would be — I don't know how this would ever happen — but these guys balance the budget.”
For Grant, the black swan would be inflation rising while the Fed cuts rates due to "dysfunction in the government bond market." That would "crystallize fiscal error and underlying inflation, and the Fed's too-big balance sheet.”
On the other hand, he joked, Powell buying “his first ounce of gold” would be a white swan event.
Keep an eye out for the rest of INN’s coverage from the New Orleans Investment Conference, including exclusive video interviews and full panel overviews.
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Gold Price 2024 Year-End Review
Gold saw incredible price gains in 2024, rising from US$2,000 per ounce to close to US$2,800.
Various factors have lent support, including 75 basis points worth of interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve, geopolitical instability in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and uncertainty in global financial markets.
Of course, it wasn't all an upward climb for gold — following the US presidential election, Donald Trump emerged victorious, and the gold price experienced volatility as investors flocked to Bitcoin.
Read on for more on what factors moved the gold price in Q4, followed by a look back at the entire year.
Gold price in Q4
The gold price began Q4 at US$2,660.30, but quickly saw a retraction to US$2,608.40 on October 9. However, the decline didn't last, and gold again rose, setting a new record high of US$2,785.40 on October 30.
The surge upward was fueled by a weaker-than-expected September US consumer price index report, which showed annual inflation of 2.4 percent and monthly inflation of 0.2 percent. These numbers were higher than analysts' forecasts of 2.3 and 0.1 percent, raising expectations that the Fed would cut rates at its November meeting.
Gold was in retreat to start November, dropping to US$2,664 on November 6 after Trump’s victory. The next day, it briefly surged above the US$2,700 mark as the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on November 7.
By November 15, the price of gold had fallen to its quarterly low of US$2,562.50.
The end of the month saw gold leap to US$2,715.80 on November 22. Following this peak, gold entered December below the US$2,700 mark, closing at US$2,660.50 on December 9.
Gold price, Q4 2024.
Chart via Trading Economics.
Geopolitical impacts have been important to gold in Q4.
In addition to Trump's re-election, which has caused turmoil in various forms, on November 17 the US authorized Ukraine to use ATACMS long-range missiles to attack targets deeper into Russian territory. The UK and France mirrored this move, giving Ukraine the green light to use long-range missiles in the ongoing conflict.
Tensions continued to ratchet up in the days following as Russia announced it was lowering the threshold for nuclear retaliation to include conventional attacks from countries backed by nuclear nations. In a demonstration of its capabilities, Russia launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile for the first time on November 21. While the missile appeared only to carry inert warheads, it is capable of delivering both conventional and nuclear armaments.
The threat of a significant escalation has bolstered gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset and store of value.
How did gold perform for the rest of the year?
Gold price in Q1
Gold set its first record price of the year at US$2,251.37 on March 31.
Central bank buying, notably China's purchase of 22 metric tons of gold in the first two months of the year, supported the price. Turkey, Kazakhstan and India also significantly increased their holdings at the start of the year.
Further momentum came from Chinese wholesale demand, which jumped to 271 metric tons in January, the strongest ever recorded. Investors were turning to the yellow metal as a defense against falling real estate and stock prices. At that time, the country's stocks had lost nearly US$5 trillion in value over the past three years.
Gold price, Q1 2024.
Chart via Trading Economics.
“As central banks continue to be significant buyers and geopolitical risks and global uncertainties drive investors towards the perceived safety of gold, the current environment underscores gold’s importance as a strategic asset for portfolio diversification and risk mitigation. Therefore, while there may have been a perception of western disinterest in gold, recent developments indicate a sustained and broad-based demand for the precious metal,” Joe Cavatoni, market strategist, Americas, told the Investing News Network (INN) in an email at the time.
Gold price in Q2
The gold price saw increasing momentum in Q2, setting a new all-time of US$2,450.05 on May 20.
Gains through the quarter were influenced by strong central bank demand. Investor sentiment toward the yellow metal also shifted, with outflows from western exchange-traded funds starting to slow.
Although European funds still saw significant declines, it wasn’t all bad news — the US-based SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD), the Sprott Physical Gold Trust (NYSE:PHYS), Ireland’s Royal Mint Responsibly Sourced Physical Gold ETC (LSE:RMAU) and Switzerland’s UBS ETF Gold (SWX:AUUSI) all saw increases.
Gold price, Q2 2024.
Chart via Trading Economics.
In a May interview with INN, Jeff Clark, editor of Paydirt Prospector, noted several other market dynamics that caused the price of gold to rise dramatically. He said the real starting point for the precious metal's gains was the end of February, when the Fed indicated it was expecting three or four rate cuts in 2024.
“All of a sudden, gold was off to the races. It jumped so high that suddenly, you had some short covering that needed to happen then as well. So you had short covering, which means they’re buying. And then you had momentum chasers and traders jumping all in. That was a pretty good spike ... that's what kind of started all of this,” he said.
Gold price in Q3
Gold set another record price during the third quarter, reaching US$2,672.51 on September 26.
The high came just a week after the conclusion of the Fed's September meeting, when it announced a jumbo 50 basis point cut to the federal funds rate. While the People’s Bank of China maintained its pause on gold purchases in the third quarter, it granted several regional banks new import quotas in August.
Gold price, Q3 2024.
Chart via Trading Economics.
David Barrett, CEO of the UK division of global brokerage firm EBC Financial Group, suggested at the time that Fed rate cuts were less of a factor for gold than central bank buying. “I still see the global central bank buying as the main driver — as it has been over the last 15 years. This demand removes supply from the market. They are the ultimate buy-and-hold participants and have been buying massive amounts,” he told INN via email.
The quarter also saw significant merger and acquisition activity, with South Africa-based Gold Fields (NYSE:GFI,JSE:GFI) announcing plans to acquire Canada’s Osisko Mining (TSX:OSK) for C$2.16 billion, and South African gold miner AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU) agreeing to purchase UK-based Centamin (TSX:CEE,LSE:CEY) for US$2.5 billion.
Investor takeaway
Overall, uncertainty has been a key driver for gold in 2024.
Central banks have continued to increase their physical holdings against an increasingly polarized political landscape. The most recent data from the World Gold Council shows that they added 186 metric tons of gold to their coffers during the third quarter, with the National Bank of Poland leading the way with 42 metric tons.
The World Gold Council notes that on a rolling four-quarter basis, central bank buying has slowed to 909 metric tons — that's compared to 1,215 metric tons one year ago.
Investors also began returning to the precious metal throughout 2024 as geopolitical tensions and fragile economies pushed them toward gold as a safe haven to help shield their portfolios from volatility.
With the world’s largest economy set to welcome Trump back to the White House in 2025, there are many unknowns. His economic policies could cause inflation to begin creeping up. In contrast, his foreign policies could create new ripples through global trade and financial markets given that he campaigned on more protectionist policies.
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
First Ore To Be Processed - Boorara Gold Project
Astral Resources Eyes Gold Production at Mandilla Project in Western Australia
Australia-based gold explorer and developer Astral Resources (ASX:AAR) is riding the strong gold price wave as it ramps up exploration and moves toward a prefeasibility study — and ultimately production — at its flagship Mandilla project.
Managing Director Marc Ducler outlined the positive economics for Mandilla, which is in Western Australia. He said they have improved significantly since a scoping study for the project was released in September 2023.
“We were (projecting) a net present value of AU$440 million. And that's at AU$2,750 (for the gold price). You move it to the gold price today, and we have a project that has AU$1.2 billion in net present value and is capable of providing over AU$285 million worth of free cashflow every single year,” he explained.
The company is now progressing from the scoping study to a prefeasibility study and then toward a definitive feasibility study, with intention to develop the Mandilla project through to production.
“You can't have a strategy that's reliant on someone else. And so our strategy is to run through to production. Again, the peak negative cashflow at scoping was AU$191 million. When you have a market cap of AU$150 million, I don't see a significant hurdle to being able to fund that project ourselves. So we certainly aren't in the business of looking for a partner and giving that value away,” Duclar said.
Early in the new year, he said the company will continue its drilling program at the Theia, Iris and Eos targets at Mandilla, and at the Kamperman prospect at the Feysville project, with the goal of updating the resource estimates for both projects.
Astral Resources expects to deliver a prefeasibility study in the second quarter of 2025.
Watch the full interview with Marc Ducler, managing director of Astral Resources, above.
Disclaimer: This interview is sponsored by Astral Resources (ASX:AAR). This interview provides information which was sourced by the Investing News Network (INN) and approved by Astral Resources in order to help investors learn more about the company. Astral Resources is a client of INN. The company’s campaign fees pay for INN to create and update this interview.
INN does not provide investment advice and the information on this profile should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. INN does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company profiled.
The information contained here is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of securities. Readers should conduct their own research for all information publicly available concerning the company. Prior to making any investment decision, it is recommended that readers consult directly with Astral Resourcesand seek advice from a qualified investment advisor.
This interview may contain forward-looking statements including but not limited to comments regarding the timing and content of upcoming work programs, receipt of property titles, etc. Forward-looking statements address future events and conditions and therefore involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those currently anticipated in such statements. The issuer relies upon litigation protection for forward-looking statements. Investing in companies comes with uncertainties as market values can fluctuate.
Mount Hope Mining: Advancing a Copper, Gold-rich Asset in the Cobar Basin of New South Wales
Mount Hope Mining (ASX:MHM) is a copper and gold exploration company based in Australia. The company's flagship Mount Hope project in the prolific Cobar Basin is comprised of four tenements spanning 175 sq km. Mount Hope Mining's acquisition of Fisher Resources has provided it with full control over the project.
The Cobar Basin, a region with a longstanding history of copper and gold mining dating back to the 1870s, has seen a flurry of significant mining activities in recent years. In August 2024, Polymetals Resources (ASX:POL) finalized the acquisition of the Endeavor Mine, located 40 kilometers north of Cobar, which boasts JORC-compliant resources of 16.3 million tonnes grading 8 percent zinc, 4.5 percent lead, and 84 grams per ton (g/t) silver. In 2023, Metals Acquisition (NYSE:MTAL) successfully acquired the CSA copper mine from Glencore, further signalling the growing investment attractiveness of the Cobar Basin as a major hub for copper production.
The Mount Hope project has four granted exploration tenements: EL6837, EL8058, EL8290 and EL8654. The region is historically significant for its rich copper and gold deposits and has contributed substantially to Australia’s mining output since the 1870s. Despite its long-standing mining heritage, the southern Cobar Basin remains underexplored, presenting a unique opportunity for Mount Hope Mining to utilize modern exploration techniques to uncover untapped resources.
Company Highlights
- Mount Hope Mining is a copper and gold exploration company based in Australia
- The company holds 100 percent ownership of the Mount Hope project in the prolific Cobar Basin, comprising four tenements spanning 175 sq km
- The Cobar Basin has long history of copper and gold mining dating back to the 1870s, and recently experiencing increased M&A activity.
- Mount Hope has identified key zones of interest within the project and will be the target for near-term phased exploration
- The company’s experienced and dynamic board and management team, bring a wealth of expertise in mineral exploration, corporate governance, and strategic planning.
This Mount Hope Mining profile is part of a paid investor education campaign.*
Click here to connect with Mount Hope Mining (ASX:MHM) to receive an Investor Presentation
Top Stories This Week: Powell Pits Gold Against Bitcoin, China Bans US Critical Minerals Exports
The gold price was rangebound this week, trading between about US$2,625 and US$2,655 per ounce.
Market watchers were waiting for the latest US jobs data, which was released on Friday (December 5). The US Department of Labor's report shows that 227,000 jobs were added in November, ahead of the 200,000 expected.
The increase is far higher than the rise of just 12,000 in October, a month impacted by hurricanes and a labor strike.
The new figures will help inform the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision when it meets from December 17 to 18. CME Group's (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch tool currently shows a strong probability of a 25 basis point cut, with the likelihood standing at 86 percent. That would bring 2024's total to 100 basis points.
Comments from Chair Jerome Powell also shed some light on the direction the central bank may take.
Speaking at a recent event hosted by the New York Times, Powell said the US economy is in "very good shape," adding that he sees no reason for that to change. However, he still emphasized that the Fed will remain cautious.
In a somewhat surprising turn of events, Powell also weighed in on Bitcoin, saying it's a speculative asset that people are not using as a form of payment or store of value. In his view, that makes it a competitor for gold, not the US dollar.
“People use bitcoin as a speculative asset. It’s just like gold, only it’s virtual, it’s digital. People are not using it as a form of payment or as a store of value. It’s highly volatile. It’s not a competitor for the dollar, it’s really a competitor for gold" — Jerome Powell, US Federal Reserve
The price of Bitcoin crossed the US$100,000 threshold for the first time ever after Powell spoke, sparking the idea that his words helped push it over the edge. After a strong year, Bitcoin is up close to 125 percent year-to-date.
Bullet briefing — Gold M&A heats up, China bans critical minerals exports
Gold M&A activity heats up
M&A activity was in the air in the gold space as Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST,OTC Pink:NESRF) announced plans to buy De Grey Mining (ASX:DEG,OTC Pink:DGMLF) in an all-share deal valued at AU$5 billion.
"De Grey’s Hemi development project will deliver a low-cost, long-life and large-scale gold mine in the Tier-1 jurisdiction of Western Australia, enhancing the quality of Northern Star’s asset portfolio to generate cash earnings" — Stuart Tonkin, Northern Star Resources
De Grey's main asset is the Western Australia-based Hemi gold project. Northern Star believes it will enhance its existing portfolio of assets, which is made up of the Kalgoorlie, Yandal and Pogo production centers.
Condor Gold (LSE:CNR,TSX:COG,OTC Pink:CNDGF) was also in focus on the M&A front after agreeing to be acquired by Metals Exploration (LSE:MTL). Condor's flagship La India project is located in Nicaragua, and Metals Exploration believes that it has a "relatively near-term path to production" that will benefit its shareholders.
China bans US critical minerals exports
China has responded to new American export controls by banning US exports of key critical minerals.
Gallium, germanium and antimony are included, and controls on graphite are also mentioned
The restrictions put in place by the US target China's semiconductor industry — officials have cited national security concerns related to Chinese advancements in artificial intelligence for military applications. Meanwhile, the critical minerals that fall under China's export ban are key in various high-tech industries, including defense.
The full impact of these actions has yet to be seen, but as Donald Trump prepares to take the helm in the US once again there's consensus among experts that trade tensions with China are likely to ramp up further.
Want more YouTube content? Check out our expert market commentary playlist, which features interviews with key figures in the resource space. If there's someone you'd like to see us interview, please send an email to cmcleod@investingnews.com.
And don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
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