Trillion Energy International Inc. (" Trillion " or the "Company ") (CSE: TCF) (OTCQB: TRLEF) (Frankfurt: Z62), has reissued its consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2023 to correct an identified error. As a result, the Company's Net Loss is reduced to $43,842 for the year from the previously reported net loss of $1,102,194.
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Voyager Helium Development Wells Approved For Drilling
Blue Star Helium Limited (ASX:BNL, OTCQB:BSNLF) (Blue Star or the Company) provides an update on progress on its maiden Voyager helium development in Las Animas County, Colorado.
Highlights
- Final approval received to drill the first two helium development wells at the high- grade Voyager helium development.
- These two wells offset the BBB#1 helium discovery and are planned to be production wells.
- Drilling of the first well is expected to commence in late Q2 or Q3.
- Additional five-well OGDP for Voyager to be submitted to COGCC in first week of May; together with the BBB 33#1 and 34#1 locations, delivers robust inventory from which the initial 3-4 production well locations at Voyager will be selected.
- Commercial discussions for provision of leased helium facility at Voyager highly advanced and expected to conclude in execution of a facilities agreement in coming weeks.
- Blue Star on track for first helium production and sales from Voyager during H2 CY2023.
Voyager helium development wells approved for drilling
The Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) has approved the Forms 2 relating to each of the BBB 33#1 and BBB 34#1 helium development wells (refer Figure 1). These wells relate to the “BBB 2860” Oil and Gas Development Plan (OGDP) located within the Company’s high-grade Voyager helium development. This is the final COGCC approval required to be able to drill these wells.
These two wells offset the BBB#1 helium discovery and are intended to produce into the initial Voyager facility (see BNL announcement dated 19 December 2022). Drilling of the first of these wells is expected to commence in late Q2 or Q3 and is planned to include subsequent flow and pressure testing evaluation.
Additional Voyager helium development wells submission
Following the acquisition of strategic mineral leases and surface access agreements (see BNL release of 11 April 2023), the next planned OGDP submission at Voyager has been expanded to five wells and is planned to be submitted in the first week of May after expiry of mandatory pre- submission notices to the County.
Previously this OGDP included the three eastern wells on the map below (on existing leases shown in blue). Submission of the OGDP was paused to add the two highly regarded well locations associated with the newly acquired strategic minerals leases (shown in yellow). This approach follows COGCC guidance.
Coupled with BBB 33#1 and 34#1, approval of these further locations is expected to deliver a robust inventory of permitted wells from which to select the initial 3-4 production well locations at Voyager.
COGCC advised at the operator meeting on 14 March 2023 that it is implementing a revised permitting process which is designed to shorten the time between submission and hearing to 4.5 months. COGCC says that the current process takes on average 7 months.
Figure 1: Voyager helium development planned well locations
Helium processing facility commercial discussions
Blue Star is progressing negotiations with a mid-stream company for the lease of a helium processing facility at Voyager (see BNL announcement of 19 December 2022). These discussions are now highly advanced and expected to conclude in execution of a facilities agreement in the coming weeks for supply and operation of the helium processing plant. Accordingly, given the COGCC’s revised permitting guidance, Blue Star is continuing to target first helium production and sales from Voyager during H2 CY2023.
Click here for the full ASX Release
This article includes content from Blue Star Helium, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
Trillion Energy Restates 2023 Year Financial Statements
The error is the result of a foreign exchange loss on intercompany accounts that was recorded in net loss and which should have been recorded in other comprehensive loss. IAS 21, The effects of changes in foreign exchange rates , requires that foreign exchange gains and losses on items that form part of an entity's net investment in a foreign operation, should be recognized in other comprehensive income or loss in the Company's consolidated financial statements.
The following table summarizes the line items impacted in the consolidated statements of financial position:
As at December 31, 2023 | As previously reported $ | Restatement Adjustment $ | Restated Amount $ |
Accumulated other comprehensive loss | (12,964,837) | (1,058,352) | (14,023,189) |
Accumulated deficit | (45,939,198) | 1,058,352 | (44,880,846) |
Total stockholders' equity | 22,212,572 | - | 22,212,572 |
The following table summarizes the line items impacted in the consolidated statements of income (loss) and comprehensive income (loss):
For the year ended December 31, 2023 | As previously reported $ | Restatement Adjustment $ | Restated Amount $ |
Foreign exchange gain (loss) | (10,990,604) | 1,058,352 | (9,932,252) |
Total other income (expense) | 4,239,593 | 1,058,352 | 5,297,945 |
Net income (loss) before taxes | 758,132 | 1,058,352 | 1,816,484 |
Net loss | (1,102,194) | 1,058,352 | (43,842) |
Other comprehensive loss Foreign currency translation | (8,954,840) | (1,058,352) | (10,013,192) |
Comprehensive loss | (10,057,034) | - | (10,057,034) |
Net income (loss) per share – Basic and diluted | (0.01) | 0.01 | (0.00) |
The above changes were adjusted through to the consolidated statements of stockholder' equity, cash flows, and notes to the consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2023. However, there were no changes to the reported totals of cash flows from (used in) operating, investing and financing activities.
"The Company considers these changes to have a negligible impact on the Company's financial position as there are no cash items impacted" said David Thompson, CFO.
The Company has recently filed its quarterly consolidated financial statements for 30 th September 2024 which are not impacted by the adjustments to the prior year.
About the Company
Trillion Energy International Inc is focused on oil and natural gas production for Europe and Türkiye with natural gas assets in Türkiye. The Company is 49% owner of the SASB natural gas field, a Black Sea natural gas development and a 19.6% (except three wells with 9.8%) interest in the Cendere oil field. More information may be found on www.sedar.com , and our website.
Contact
David Thompson, CFO
1-778-819-1585
E-mail: info@trillionenergy.com
Website: www.trillionenergy.com
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
This news release may contain certain forward-looking information and statements, including without limitation, statements pertaining to the Company's ability to obtain regulatory approval of the executive officer and director appointments. All statements included herein, other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking information and such information involves various risks and uncertainties. Trillion does not undertake to update any forward-looking information except in accordance with applicable securities laws.
These statements are no guarantee of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, delay, change of strategy, and assumptions that are difficult to predict and which may change over time. Accordingly, actual results and strategies could differ materially and adversely from those expressed in any forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. These factors include unforeseen securities regulatory challenges, COVID, oil and gas price fluctuations, operational and geological risks, changes in capital raising strategies, the ability of the Company to raise necessary funds for development; the outcome of commercial negotiations; changes in technical or operating conditions; the cost of extracting gas and oil may increase and be too costly so that it is uneconomic and not profitable to do so and other factors discussed from time to time in the Company's filings on www.sedar.com, including the most recently filed Annual Report on Form 20-F and subsequent filings. For a full summary of our oil and gas reserves information for Turkey, please refer to our Forms F-1,2,3 51-101 filed on www.sedar.com, and or request a copy of our reserves report effective December 31, 2022 and updated January 31 2023.
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Tracy Shuchart: Energy Demand Exploding — Watching Oil/Gas, Uranium and Grid Stocks
Tracy Shuchart, CEO and founder of Hilltower Resource Advisors, discussed the growing need for all types of energy in the US, saying she's looking for opportunities in oil, natural gas, grid stocks and uranium juniors.
"I think 2025 is going to be a really good year for energy, absolutely," she said. "Not just because of the incoming administration that is very pro-energy and very-pro nuclear as well. But I think with this demand explosion that we're having it's going to be hard to keep ignoring that sector as people have over the last few years."
Looking at oil stocks, Shuchart said those who do their research will be able to find bargains outside the majors.
"The Exxon Mobils (NYSE:XOM), the Chevrons (NYSE:CVX) — they're always going to perform well. But if you want to take on a little bit more risk, you can look at some of those smaller producers that maybe haven't performed as well."
When it comes to natural gas, she said she's looking at midstream companies due to the growing need for pipelines.
Shuchart is also interested in grid stocks as power demand from artificial intelligence data centers increases.
Those include utilities companies like Southern Company (NYSE:SO), as well as equipment stocks like Siemens (OTC Pink:SMAWF,ETR:SIE), LG Electronics (KRX:066570) and Hitachi (TSE:6501).
In the uranium sector, Shuchart is focused on North American juniors.
"They've been underperforming some of the majors, but now that we've had uranium prices kind of hold this US$80, US$85 (per pound) area for a long enough time, that's enough money that they can be successful," she said.
Watch the interview above for more from Shuchart on those topics and more. You can also click here to view the Investing News Network's New Orleans Investment Conference playlist on YouTube.
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Coelacanth Energy Inc. Announces Operations Update
Coelacanth Energy Inc. (TSXV: CEI) ("Coelacanth" or the "Company") announces that it has completed and tested 4 additional wells at its Two Rivers East Project including 3 Lower Montney Wells and 1 Upper Montney well on the 5-19 pad.
LOWER MONTNEY
The 3 new Lower Montney wells (F5-19, G5-19, H5-19) were drilled with an average horizontal length of 3,285 metres and completed with approximately 2.5 tons of sand per horizontal metre. The wells were placed on test for clean-up for an average of 7 days until a stabilized rate was achieved. The test rates noted below are based on the final 24 hours of each test.
The average rate achieved for the 3 new Lower Montney wells was 1,624 boepd per well comprised of 989 bbls per day of 41 API light sweet oil and 3.8 mmcf/d of liquids-rich gas. The rates per well are outlined in the table below:
Well | Oil - bbls/d | Gas - mmcf/d | Total - boe/d | % Light Oil |
F5-19 | 1,061 | 3.2 | 1,595 | 67 |
G5-19 | 900 | 4.0 | 1,573 | 57 |
H5-19 | 1,007 | 4.2 | 1,703 | 59 |
Average | 989 | 3.8 | 1,624 | 61 |
The overall rates and more specifically the oil rates were materially higher than the previous 3 wells on the pad (C5-19, D5-19 and E5-19) that achieved an average test rate of 1,338 boepd including 729 bbls/d of light oil and 3.7 mmcf/d of gas (see press release dated January 18, 2024 for more information including per well test results and initial production rates). Although the 3 new Lower Montney wells were drilled with slightly longer lateral lengths and the completion design was slightly modified in an attempt to increase the overall oil production, the tests have exceeded expectations.
UPPER MONTNEY
The Upper Montney well (B5-19) was drilled with a horizontal length of 2,647 metres and completed with approximately 2.5 tons of sand per horizontal metre. The well flowed on cleanup for 6 days and achieved a rate of 1,136 boepd comprised of 271 bbls/d of 40 API light oil and 5.2 mmcf/d of liquids-rich gas. In comparison to the Lower Montney Wells noted above, the B5-19 was 20% shorter in horizontal length and had 42% less frac stages leaving room for future optimization.
Management is very pleased with the B5-19 test result particularly the potential impact on Coelacanth's development inventory over its 150-section contiguous Montney land block. The Upper Montney is extensively mapped over Coelacanth's lands, but the impact of this test is amplified given it is a 10-mile step-out from Coelacanth's Two Rivers West project and 5 miles from the nearest competitor well.
INFRASTRUCTURE & TAKEAWAY
As previously disclosed, Coelacanth has secured long-term takeaway and processing for up to 60 mmcf/d of gas and is in process of constructing the required facilities and pipelines to handle the 5-19 and subsequent pads. Initial testing and start-up of the facility is anticipated for late April 2025.
Overall, Coelacanth believes this was a very significant second step in its development that has materially expanded the development fairway of the Upper Montney as well as increased the productivity of the Lower Montney that was already established as productive.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:
Coelacanth Energy Inc.
2110, 530 - 8th Ave SW
Calgary, Alberta T2P 3S8
Phone: 403-705-4525
www.coelacanth.ca
Mr. Robert J. Zakresky
President and Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Nolan Chicoine
Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer
NEITHER THE TSX VENTURE EXCHANGE NOR ITS REGULATION SERVICES PROVIDER (AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED IN THE POLICIES OF THE TSX VENTURE EXCHANGE) ACCEPTS RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY OF THIS RELEASE.
Oil and Gas Terms
The Company uses the following frequently recurring oil and gas industry terms in the news release:
Liquids | |
Bbls | Barrels |
Bbls/d | Barrels per day |
NGLs | Natural gas liquids (includes condensate, pentane, butane, propane, and ethane) |
Natural Gas | |
Mcf | Thousands of cubic feet |
Mcf/d | Thousands of cubic feet per day |
MMcf/d | Millions of cubic feet per day |
Oil Equivalent | |
Boe | Barrels of oil equivalent |
Boe/d | Barrels of oil equivalent per day |
Disclosure provided herein in respect of a boe may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion rate of six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel of oil equivalent has been used for the calculation of boe amounts in the news release. This boe conversion rate is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead.
Product Types
The Company uses the following references to sales volumes in the news release:
Natural gas refers to shale gas
Oil refers to tight oil
NGLs refers to butane, propane and pentanes combined
Liquids refers to tight oil and NGLs combined
Oil equivalent refers to the total oil equivalent of shale gas, tight oil, and NGLs combined, using the conversion rate of six thousand cubic feet of shale gas to one barrel of oil equivalent as described above.
Forward-Looking Information
This news release contains forward-looking statements and forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable securities laws. The use of any of the words "expect", "anticipate", "continue", "estimate", "may", "will", "should", "believe", "intends", "forecast", "plans", "guidance" and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements or information.
More particularly and without limitation, this document contains forward-looking statements and information relating to the Company's oil, NGLs and natural gas production and capital programs. The forward-looking statements and information are based on certain key expectations and assumptions made by the Company, including expectations and assumptions relating to prevailing commodity prices and exchange rates, applicable royalty rates and tax laws, future well production rates, the performance of existing wells, the success of drilling new wells, the availability of capital to undertake planned activities and the availability and cost of labor and services.
Although the Company believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements and information are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Since forward-looking statements and information address future events and conditions, by their very nature they involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those currently anticipated due to a number of factors and risks. These include, but are not limited to, the risks associated with the oil and gas industry in general such as operational risks in development, exploration and production, delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures, the uncertainty of estimates and projections relating to production rates, costs and expenses, commodity price and exchange rate fluctuations, marketing and transportation, environmental risks, competition, the ability to access sufficient capital from internal and external sources and changes in tax, royalty and environmental legislation. The forward-looking statements and information contained in this document are made as of the date hereof for the purpose of providing the readers with the Company's expectations for the coming year. The forward-looking statements and information may not be appropriate for other purposes. The Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements or information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless so required by applicable securities laws.
Test Results and Initial Production Rates
The B5-19 Upper Montney well was production tested for 6.3 days and produced at an average rate of 92 bbl/d oil and 2,100 mcf/d gas (net of load fluid and energizing fluid) over that period which includes the initial cleanup where only load water was being recovered. At the end of the test, flowing wellhead pressure and production rates were stable.
The F5-19 Lower Montney well was production tested for 4.9 days and produced at an average rate of 728 bbl/d oil and 1,607 mcf/d gas (net of load fluid and energizing fluid) over that period which includes the initial cleanup where only load water was being recovered. At the end of the test, flowing wellhead pressure and production rates were stable.
The G5-19 Lower Montney well was production tested for 7.1 days and produced at an average rate of 415 bbl/d oil and 1,489 mcf/d gas (net of load fluid and energizing fluid) over that period which includes the initial cleanup where only load water was being recovered. At the end of the test, flowing wellhead pressure and production rates were stable.
The H5-19 Basal Montney well was production tested for 8.1 days and produced at an average rate of 411 bbl/d oil and 1,166 mcf/d gas (net of load fluid and energizing fluid) over that period which includes the initial cleanup where only load water was being recovered. At the end of the test, flowing wellhead pressure was stable and production was starting to decline.
A pressure transient analysis or well-test interpretation has not been carried out on these four wells and thus certain of the test results provided herein should be considered to be preliminary until such analysis or interpretation has been completed. Test results and initial production rates disclosed herein, particularly those short in duration, may not necessarily be indicative of long-term performance or of ultimate recovery.
To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/232259
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Eric Nuttall: Oil Facing Volatile 2025 — Where I'm Investing, Plus Prices, Supply and Demand
Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, spoke to the Investing News Network about 2024 oil market trends and what's next for the sector heading into 2025.
While the past year has been tough overall, he believes the biggest challenge is sentiment.
"Nobody's here. Nobody cares. Nobody is aware of any of the bullish potential, because everybody is just focused on the narrative around, '(The market is) awash in oil and we're going to fall to US$60 (per barrel).' Or I even saw US$40 the other day. You've got to try to really tune out the noise," Nuttall explained during the conversation.
"I think given how underweight people are, given how strong balance sheets — ie. business models — are today, that even at US$70, which seems to be a reasonable price to triangulate around, we can still find opportunities," he added.
Nuttall is looking for companies that have paid down their debt and have strong free cashflow.
"The only thing to do with that free cashflow is to meaningfully buy back shares," he said. "If you look at the relationship between share buybacks and performance, it's like mission accomplished — there's a very strong linear relationship between the companies that have been most aggressively buying back their stock and the biggest outperformers."
Nuttall also said he sees investment potential outside oil stocks in the year ahead.
"We're looking for names with multi decades of inventory, because my belief is that the demand for hydrocarbons — oil, natural gas, coal — will grow longer and stronger than consensus believes," he said.
When asked about his final thoughts heading into 2025, Nuttall returned to sentiment.
"I think that's the biggest thing — sentiment is awful, fundamentals are not. Things are not perfect, but they're not nearly as bad as what consensus believes, and there's still money to be made in this sector," he finished.
Watch the interview above for more from Nuttall on oil supply, demand and prices in 2025.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
2024 AGM Chairmans Address
As announced MEC (ASX:MMR) has received written confirmation from the Australian Securities Exchange (“ASX”) that the Company’s shares will be reinstated to trading on the official list of ASX, subject to the satisfaction of certain conditions precedent. MEC have provided all of the information to ASX in order to satisfy the conditions precedent and will update the market accordingly once that confirmation is received.
PEP11 continues to be a primary focus of MECs investee Advent Energy Ltd and this focus has been validated by recent key energy reports, in particular the ACCC Gas Inquiry 2017-2030 Report released on 7 July 20241.
The ACCC Gas Inquiry report has stated:
- “There is an urgent need to develop new sources of gas production and supply.
- Natural gas is expected to play a critical role in ensuring the reliability of energy supply as Australia increases its reliance on renewable sources.
- The east coast gas market may experience gas supply shortfalls as early as 2027 (to mid-2030s) unless new sources of supply are made available.
- AEMO’s (Australian Energy Market Operator) 2024 GSOO (Gas Statement of Opportunities) has also highlighted the risk of peak-day shortfalls from 2025 under extreme peak demand conditions.
- Ensuring efficient supply to the east coast market would also be supported by increased competition in upstream production.
- The use of import terminals does not obviate development of domestic sources of supply. …. continued domestic gas production will be important to limit risks to Australia’s energy security and market stability.
- For larger industrial users, where gas is used as a core component in manufacturing and chemical processes and reducing gas usage may not be technically or commercially feasible in the foreseeable future.
- The ACCC and AEMO have increasingly noted that an orderly transition will require more gas to be brought online to meet expected demand. … a core policy challenge is ... maintaining energy security and affordability.
- On the fundamental concern of continuing supply, (The ACCC) analysis indicates that gas production in the southern states will decline over the short and medium term.
- Gas fields in the Gippsland basin, the primary source of gas for the southern states in the past, are reaching the end of their productive lives. There are no projects yet to be approved that could come online in time to prevent a shortfall in 2025.”
Key further points
- “The potential emergence of supply shortages... is due to: ▪ increases in forecast gas consumption for GPG as a firming power source in the National Electricity Market, especially during winter… the retirement of coal generation post-2030 will increase demand for gas-based firming.
- Decreases in forecast supply due to a combination of delays in new gas projects still awaiting regulatory approval, and production problems in legacy gas fields.
- The southern states are expected to rely on gas transported from Queensland for the foreseeable future unless new sources of supply are made available. However, from 2029 Queensland will also require new sources of supply.
- Forecast production is from the Bowen (including the north Bowen), Surat, Galilee, Cooper, Gippsland, Bass, Otway, Gunnedah and Sydney basins.
- ACCC … have excluded production and expected supply from the Northern Territory given continuing production issues in the region.
- There is a risk that the Northern Territory will require gas to be imported from Queensland.
Asset Energy continues to progress the PEP11 joint venture applications for the variation and suspension of work program conditions and related extension of PEP11.
On 6th August 2024, Advent announced that Asset had filed an Originating Application for Judicial Review in the Federal Court seeking the following:
1. A declaration that the Commonwealth-New South Wales Offshore Petroleum Joint Authority has breached an implied duty by failing to make a decision under the Offshore Petroleum and Greenhouse Gas Storage Act 2006 (Cth) with respect to two pending applications relating to Petroleum Exploration Permit NSW–11 (PEP11 Permit); and
2. An order that the Joint Authority be compelled to determine the applications within 45 days2.
Asset alleged that the failure by the Joint Authority to make a decision with respect to the applications constitutes a breach of its duty to consider the applications within a reasonable time.
On 18 September 2024, Minister Husic, via NOPTA, gave Asset Energy (Advents subsidiary) a statement of preliminary views with attachments and invited Asset Energy to provide a response within 30 days. The statement of preliminary views included 45 annexures totaling 1608 pages. Asset Energy provided its response to NOPTA on 15 November 2024.
Following conferral between the parties to the Federal Court proceeding, on 9 October 2024 orders were made vacating the previous orders and adjourning the proceedings to a date on or after 7 February 2025. The parties have liberty to apply to bring the matter back before the Federal Court on 3 days’ notice.
Included in the material provided by Minister Husic was a copy of the NOPTA recommendation to the Joint Authority which recommended that the Joint Authority approve Asset’s second Application. In the NOPTA Annual Report of Activities 2020-21 it was noted that 54 applications for COVID-19 related suspensions and extensions were approved in that period. The company understands that the Second Application (for COVID-19 relief) made in respect of the PEP11 Permit was the only application outstanding.
Following the close of the MEC Entitlement Offer, the existing cash held by the Company, together with the funds raised under the Offer, and Shortfall Offer, the Company has approximately $3.36m (after costs of the offer) in cash. This ensures that the Company is adequately funded going forward and as set out in its Prospectus, the Company has developed a clearly defined business framework that covers its strategic goals to develop and commercialize its investments over the first two years following its Re-Instatement, as set out in the Prospectus dated. The Directors are satisfied that the Company will have sufficient working capital to carry out its objectives as stated in its Prospectus.
Click here for the Reinstatement to Quotation
Click here for the full ASX Release
This article includes content from MEC Resources, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
Supply Chains in Question as Trump Threatens Tariffs on North American Neighbors
Incoming US President Donald Trump has proposed the application of a 25 percent tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico on his first day in office, sparking concerns over possible economic implications.
“On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders,” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform, adding that the move was spurred by worries over illegal drug imports and immigration.
Canada and Mexico are America's closest trading partners, with both being integral to the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). They account for significant portions of US imports in critical sectors, from energy to automobiles.
Analysts are already predicting widespread economic disruption if the tariffs are implemented, with Canadian and Mexican leaders raising concerns about the implications for trade relations and resource exports.
Canada and Mexico's close ties to the US
Canada exported US$587 billion in goods globally in 2022, relying heavily on the US as its primary trading partner. In total, 74.5 percent of the country’s exports are destined for the US market.
Overall, the country's top exports for that year included crude petroleum (US$123 billion), cars (US$29.4 billion), petroleum gas (US$24.3 billion) and refined petroleum (US$17.2 billion).
Canadian crude oil alone accounts 62 percent of US crude imports. Canadian officials argue that tariffs on such goods could disrupt supply chains and inflate costs for businesses and consumers across North America.
Mexico also has a strong trade relationship with the US, exporting US$421 billion worth of goods to the country. Its overall top exports include cars (US$48.4 billion), computers (US$39.3 billion) and crude petroleum (US$38.2 billion).
Lose-lose situation for all countries involved
Canadian responses to Trump’s comments focus on the economic losses for all parties involved.
Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland and Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc issued a joint statement on X, formerly Twitter, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the integrity of cross-border trade.
"Canada and the United States have one of the strongest and closest relationships — particularly when it comes to trade and border security. Canada places the highest priority on border security and the integrity of our shared border,” they said in a post issued on Monday (November 25).
Read the joint statement from @cafreeland and me:
— Dominic LeBlanc (@DLeBlancNB) November 26, 2024
//
Lisez la déclaration conjointe de @cafreeland et moi: pic.twitter.com/g9unlJrOEe
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also addressed the issue, revealing that he had spoken with Trump to stress the significance of the USMCA in fostering stable trade relations.
"This is a relationship that we know takes a certain amount of working on, and that's what we'll do," he said.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum echoed this cautionary sentiment, saying, "To one tariff will follow another in response and so on, until we put our common businesses at risk."
Tariffs to impact inflation, currencies
The automotive sector in particular stands out as a critical area of concern. The US imports the majority of its cars and car parts from Canada and Mexico, with Mexico surpassing China as the top exporter to the US in 2023.
The tariffs could lead to increased vehicle prices and production delays, impacting automakers and consumers alike.
The proposed tariffs come at a time when US businesses are already grappling with inflationary pressures and labor shortages. Analysts warn that additional tariffs could exacerbate these challenges by driving up costs.
The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that Trump’s broader tariff proposals could cost the average US household over US$2,600 annually, a figure that may rise further with the inclusion of Canada and Mexico.
The potential impact on currency markets has also been noted.
Following Trump’s announcement, the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso both experienced immediate declines against the US dollar, although partial recoveries were observed in subsequent trading sessions.
As the US’ trade partners seek to establish a compromise, analysts are warning that the economic costs of such tariffs could extend beyond North America, impacting further global supply chains and consumer markets.
The coming months are likely to see intensified discussions between US, Canadian and Mexican officials as they seek to establish a middle ground to avoid an all-out breakdown in their relationship.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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