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Nickel and the Battery Boom in 2025
Nickel Price 2024 Year-End Review
Nickel market activity has been underwhelming for the past couple of years as supply exceeds demand.
This trend continued in 2024's final quarter, with Indonesian supply being the primary force weighing on prices. Indonesia is the largest source of nickel globally, with much output destined for Chinese-owned refineries in the country.
Meanwhile, demand stayed weak as China’s economy continued to sputter. The Asian nation's housing and manufacturing markets are important demand drivers for nickel, which is used in stainless steel products.
Read on to learn what other key factors moved the nickel sector in 2024.
Nickel price in Q4
Nickel reached its 2024 peak of US$21,615 per metric ton on May 20, but was back below the US$16,000 mark by the end of July. Following some volatility in August and September, it reached US$18,221 on October 2.
However, higher prices were not to last, and nickel spent much of Q4 in a downward trend.
By the end of October, nickel had fallen to US$15,732 before climbing back to US$16,607 on November 7.
Since then, the nickel market's downtrend has largely continued. On December 19, the metal slumped to its 2024 low of US$15,090, ultimately ending the year at US$15,300 on December 31.
Nickel price, Q4 2024.
Chart via Trading Economics.
As mentioned, nickel’s weak price performance is largely due to high output from Indonesia and low demand, particularly from Asian markets, as China’s recovery has failed to gain traction.
Against that backdrop, Indonesia said on December 19 that it was considering cutting mining quotas to boost prices. The move would reduce the amount of nickel ore allowed to be mined almost in half, to 150 million metric tons in 2025.
Additionally, Indonesia is looking to tighten environmental regulation compliance for miners in the new year, which could increase volatility for metals including nickel. The move comes not long after the country signed several new agreements in November with Chinese companies that would see billions invested in Indonesian nickel operations.
Indonesia had previously worked to distance itself from partnerships with China as it sought to improve relations with the US and be included under the country's US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
The new agreements emerged shortly after Donald Trump won the US presidential election on November 7. Trump’s return to the Oval Office is unlikely to bode well for Indonesian officials seeking to secure a trade deal with the US. However, a loosening of rules in the IRA might create new inroads for Indonesian nickel producers.
How did nickel perform for the rest of the year?
The story since the start of the year has been high output from Indonesian operations.
Low prices saw some nickel producers, including major miner First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FM,OTC Pink:FQVLF) and Australia’s Wyloo Metals, cut production. However, New Caledonia was most affected. The country is highly dependent on its nickel sector, with industry giants like Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF), Eramet (EPA:ERA) and raw materials trader Trafigura owning significant stakes in nickel producers in the country.
Ultimately, cuts there led to a 200 million euro bailout package from the French government, which exacerbated tensions over New Caledonia's independence from France. Opponents of the agreement argued that it risks the territory's sovereignty, and that mining companies aren’t contributing enough to bail out the mines, which employ thousands.
The second quarter was defined by a surge in nickel prices.
Positive momentum began to work its way into the market at the end of Q1, as Indonesia experienced delays in approving mining output quotas and speculation grew that Russian nickel could be sanctioned by the US and UK.
On April 12, news broke that Washington and London had banned US and UK metal exchanges from admitting new aluminum, copper and nickel from Russia. Taking immediate effect, the prohibitions also halted the import of those metals, causing prices to soar to a year-to-date high of US$21,615 on May 20.
At the time, Joe Mazumdar, editor of Exploration Insights, suggested this move would have little impact on the sector.
“That nickel is still going to make it into the market, it’s just going to go to a different exchange, probably Shanghai … So I could still see that nickel moving and getting consumed in the global market — it’s just not coming to the west,” he explained to the Investing News Network in an interview.
Ultimately, by the end of the quarter, the price was trending toward US$17,000.
Nickel saw a strong end to the third quarter, with prices rising above the US$18,000 mark.
Nickel found support in September as the Chinese government introduced a raft of stimulus measures intended to boost economic growth in the country. Among the measures were a 0.5 percent interest rate cut on existing mortgages, and a reduction in the downpayment required to purchase a home to 15 percent from 25 percent.
The announcement came alongside cuts at Chinese smelters as they were forced to deal with a shortage in feeder supply due to more delays to Indonesia’s permitting and quota system.
Investor takeaway
The nickel market is expected to remain oversupplied for some time.
With China’s economy on a slow path to recovery, demand is projected to remain weak. Meanwhile, supply will likely hinge on whether Indonesia chooses to make significant cuts to its output.
While demand for nickel in electric vehicle batteries is expected to be up 27 percent year-on-year in 2024, producers have also been pursuing alternatives that don’t require as much nickel. Additionally, more consumers are looking to plug-in hybrid vehicles with smaller batteries that require less nickel.
Even with the increased demand from the battery sector, nickel is primarily used in stainless steel products, which are still dominated by the Chinese manufacturing and real estate sectors.
Perhaps the most significant factors to consider are political. A new administration in the US and a shift in its approach to sourcing critical metals like nickel could alter the landscape for nickel producers in 2025.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates.
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Nickel Price Forecast: Top Trends for Nickel in 2025
The nickel market has faced challenges over the past few years due to a supply glut and weak demand.
Even though the price of nickel surged in the first quarter of 2024, higher prices didn’t last. By the end of the year, any gains the base metal had made were erased, and it entered 2025 in the US$15,000 to US$15,200 per metric ton range.
What's in store for the rest of the year, and what nickel trends should investors be watching?
Nickel market oversupply to continue in 2025
Indonesian supply is a key reason nickel prices are under pressure, as is a lack of demand growth.
In comments emailed to the Investing News Network (INN), Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING, suggested that the situation isn’t likely to change for nickel in 2025.
“We believe nickel’s underperformance is likely to continue — at least in the near term — amid weakening demand and a sustained market surplus. A surge in output in Indonesia has dragged nickel lower over recent years, and demand from the stainless steel and electric vehicle (EV) battery sectors continues to disappoint,” she said.
Her statement follows recently introduced measures from China. Set to take effect in 2025, they involve injecting US$1.4 trillion over the next five years, and are meant to help the country’s ailing economy.
However, past measures introduced in 2024, particularly those in September, have yet to significantly affect the nation's housing and manufacturing sectors, which are net demand drivers for stainless steel.
Jason Sappor, senior analyst, metals and mining research, at S&P Global Commodity Insights, expressed similar sentiments about nickel's 2025 performance in comments to INN.
“We expect the market to remain oversupplied in 2025, as Indonesia and China’s primary nickel output expands further,” he said. Sappor added that subdued prices could lead to further output curtailments across the industry. This would be in addition to cuts already made at various operations around the world, particularly in Oceania.
The situation even has top producer Indonesia considering restricting output.
“The latest news reports that Indonesia’s government is considering making deep cuts to nickel-mining quotas to boost prices also highlight that the implementation of restrictions on the country’s nickel output should not be ignored as a risk to forecasts for the market to stay in surplus in 2025,” Sappor said.
For her part, Manthey suggested that cuts to nickel supply in 2024 did little to upset the market surplus — instead, they may have solidified Indonesia’s dominance over the industry.
“The recent supply curtailments also limit the supply alternatives to the dominance of Indonesia, where the majority of production is backed by Chinese investment. This comes at a time when the US and the EU are looking to reduce their dependence on third countries to access critical raw materials, including nickel,” she said.
Will Trump change the Inflation Reduction Act?
One of the biggest factors that could come into play in 2025 is Donald Trump's return to the White House.
During his campaign, Trump made several promises that could lead to a shift in the US’ environmental and energy transition policies. While nothing is set in stone just yet, the actions he takes could include reversing commitments made under the Paris Agreement and ending tax credits for EVs.
A significant unknown is how Trump will approach the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
The program, which was established under the outgoing Biden administration, was designed to stimulate a move away from fossil fuels, while also supporting the procurement of friendly supply of low-carbon nickel.
One part of the IRA has made it challenging for Indonesia to export nickel to the US. As it stands, EVs must meet foreign entity of concern (FEOC) rules to qualify for the US$7,500 tax credit outlined under the IRA.
The US considers nations like China, Russia, Iran and North Korea to be areas of concern. Under rule 30D of the act, these nations cannot control more than 25 percent of the board seats, voting rights or equity interests of any company that supplies critical minerals for EV batteries destined for the US.
This has been a major obstacle for Indonesia as it has worked to build a trade partnership with the US.
Manthey outlined how Trump may seek to tighten rules, making a trade pact with Indonesia more difficult.
“Indonesia has been trying to reduce China-based ownership of new nickel projects to help its nickel sector qualify for the IRA tax credits. Tighter FEOC rules would create more issues for nickel supply chains, and would be an obstacle to Indonesia’s goal of expanding its export market to the US,” she said.
Manthey also said if the rules are tightened, primary and intermediate production will continue to be sent to China.
Investor takeaway
Barring any major shift in the supply and demand environment, nickel prices are unlikely to see significant gains over the next year. For investors, this is likely to make for a less supportive environment.
“The surplus in the Class 1 market is reflected in the rising exchange stocks," said Manthey.
"Further inflows of Chinese and Indonesian metal into the exchange’s sheds could put additional downward pressure on the London Metal Exchange’s nickel prices," she added in her comments to INN.
For Manthey, the potential upside would be stronger stainless steel output or restricted ore supply from Indonesia. However, slower EV market growth or the cancellation of some incentives in the US could offset this.
Overall, she isn’t expecting large price movements in the coming year.
“We forecast nickel prices to remain under pressure next year as the surplus in the global market continues. We see prices averaging US$15,700 in 2025,” Manthey said.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: FPX Nickel is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
5 Best-performing Canadian Nickel Stocks of 2024
After trending down in 2023, nickel prices climbed to a 10 month high in late May of this year. However, they've since pulled back to four year lows. While this environment has been tough, some nickel stocks are still thriving.
Supply is expected to outflank demand over the short term, but the longer-term outlook for the metal is strong. Demand from the electric vehicle (EV) industry is one reason nickel's outlook looks bright further into the future.
Battery nickel demand is poised to triple by 2030, according to Benchmar Mineral Intelligence.
“Mid and high level performance EVs will be the primary driver of battery nickel demand growth in the coming years, particularly in Western markets,” said Jorge Uzcategui, senior nickel analyst at the firm.
“There will be growth in China, but it won’t be as pronounced as in ex-China markets.”
As for Canada, nickel is listed as a top priority in the government's Critical Minerals Strategy. The country is the world's fifth largest producer of nickel, with much of its production coming from mines in Ontario's Sudbury Basin, including Vale’s (NYSE:VALE) Sudbury operation and Glencore's (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF) Sudbury Integrated Nickel Operations.
In February, Canada Nickel Company (TSXV:CNC,OTCQX:CNIKF) announced its subsidiary NetZero Metals is planning to develop a US$1 billion nickel-processing plant in Ontario that will become North America’s largest once complete.
How have Canadian nickel stocks performed in 2024? Below are the top nickel stocks in Canada on the TSXV and CSE by share price performance so far this year. TSX stocks were considered, but didn't make the cut.
All year-to-date and share price data was obtained on December 13, 2024, using TradingView’s stock screener. The top nickel stocks in Canada listed had market caps above C$10 million at that time.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 533.33 percent
Market cap: C$35.9 million
Share price: C$0.19
Class 1 Nickel and Technologies' flagship property is its Alexo-Dundonald nickel project near Timmins, Ontario. The past-producing asset hosts four nickel sulfide deposits. The company’s pipeline also includes the past-producing Somanike nickel-copper project near Val-d’Or, Québec, and the River Valley platinum-group metals (PGMs) project near Sudbury, Ontario.
Class 1 Nickel released resource estimate updates for the Alexo South and Alexo North deposits in April and May of this year, respectively. The company said it expects to start work on a preliminary economic assessment for Alexo-Dundonald in the near term as part of its plan to bring the asset back into production.
On October 3, Class 1 Nickel put out an updated resource estimate for the Dundonald South nickel deposit. In the indicated category, the company reported a 781 percent increase in metric tons of ore and a 474 percent increase in pounds of nickel.
The Canadian nickel exploration company's share price started off the year at C$0.06, and began climbing in April to reach a year-to-date high of C$0.40 on November 18.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 318.18 percent
Market cap: C$187.23 million
Share price: C$0.92
Power Nickel is developing its 80 percent owned Nisk polymetallic property in Québec, which hosts nickel, copper, platinum and palladium mineralization. According to the company, it plans to create Canada's first carbon-neutral nickel mine. The polymetallic nature of the project is a plus for the economic case for future nickel production in a low price environment.
This ongoing work has generated positive news flow for the company in 2024. After starting the year at C$0.24, Power Nickel began gaining in mid-April following two key announcements. First, the company released drill results from the newly discovered Lion zone 5 kilometers northeast of the main Nisk deposit. Shortly after, it announced the completion of its option to earn an 80 percent stake in Nisk from Critical Elements Lithium (TSXV:CRE,OTCQX:CRECF).
Power Nickel’s share price jumped more than 15 percent on May 10 to reach C$0.64 following news that drilling continued to expand the high-grade, near-surface Lion discovery, with notable assays including 14.42 meters at 0.59 grams per metric ton (g/t) gold, 69.14 g/t silver, 8.17 percent copper, 6.25 g/t palladium, 8.44 g/t platinum and 0.58 percent nickel.
In June, Power Nickel started an 8,000 meter drill program at Nisk, and closed a flow-through offering for gross proceeds of over C$20 million. Some of the biggest names in mining — Robert Friedland and Rob McEwen — participated.
The company's excellent news flow continued into the fourth quarter with a series of stellar drill results from its Nisk winter drill program, including significant intersections as shared in its October 3, October 28 and November 11 news releases. Additionally, on December 5, Power Nickel announced it was executing a spinout of its interest in the Golden Ivan property in Chile into a wholly owned subsidiary called Chilean Metals.
Power Nickel continued to climb before peaking at a year-to-date high of C$0.96 on December 12. On that same day, the company released another set of positive assay results from its work at Nisk.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 234.15 percent
Market cap: C$214.48 million
Share price: C$1.37
Magna Mining is a base metal exploration and development company based in Sudbury, Ontario.
The company’s flagship assets are the Shakespeare mine and the Crean Hill project. Shakespeare is a past-producing nickel-copper-PGMs mine with major permits in place. It hosts an indicated open-pit resource of 16.51 million metric tons at 0.56 percent nickel equivalent. Crean Hill is a past-producing nickel, copper and PGMs mine.
In March, Magna announced the signing of a definitive offtake agreement with Vale Base Metals' wholly owned subsidiary Vale Canada for the advanced exploration portion of Crean Hill. A few months later, in June, it inked a toll-milling agreement with Glencore Canada for the surface bulk sample of the 109 Footwall zone at Crean Hill.
The company entered into a definitive share purchase agreement with a subsidiary of KGHM Polska Miedz (FWB:KGHA) to acquire a portfolio of base metals assets located in the Sudbury Basin, including the producing McCreedy West copper-nickel mine. In November, Magna completed an updated preliminary economic assessment at Crean Hill.
Magna's share price started off the year at C$0.57, and gradually climbing to double its value by September 13. It reached a year-to-date high of C$1.67 on December 4.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 108.7 percent
Market cap: C$27.19 million
Share price: C$0.24
Tartisan Nickel is a Canadian battery metals exploration and development company that's focused on developing the Kenbridge nickel-copper-cobalt project located in Northwestern Ontario, Canada.
Tartisan acquired additional exploration claims for Kenbridge in mid-May. In November, the company closed a C$1.5 million flow-through financing with proceeds primarily going to fund the exploration and development of the project.
Shares of Tartisan Nickel fluctuated significantly in 2024. The company kicked off the year at C$0.19 before falling to a low of C$0.10 on March 12. However, its share price climbed rapidly in May to reach a year-to-date high of C$0.26 on May 16. Although shares fell as low as C$0.12 in late June, their value doubled back up to C$0.24 on December 13.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 70.83 percent
Market cap: C$38.41 million
Share price: C$0.41
EV Nickel’s primary project is the 30,000 hectare Shaw Dome asset, which is situated near Timmins, Ontario. The property includes the high-grade W4 deposit, which has a resource of 2 million metric tons at 0.98 percent nickel for 43.3 million pounds of Class 1 nickel across the measured, indicated and inferred categories.
Shaw Dome also holds the large-scale CarLang A zone, which has a resource of 1 billion metric tons at 0.24 percent nickel for 5.3 billion pounds of Class 1 nickel across the indicated and inferred categories.
EV Nickel is working on integrating carbon capture and storage technology for large-scale clean nickel production, and has procured funding from the Canadian government and Ontario's provincial government. In late 2023, the company announced it was moving its carbon capture research and development to the pilot plant stage.
The company's news in 2024 includes the closure of a flow-through financing in March that ultimately saw EV Nickel raise C$5.12 million to fund the development of its high-grade, large-scale nickel resources.
In April, EV Nickel launched an exploration program that is aimed at advancing the CarLang trend and exploring other nickel targets. The most recent news out of the program came in early September with the announcement that diamond drilling at the Langmuir #2 high-priority nickel target had confirmed high-grade nickel, with intercepts such as 18.5 meters grading 1.07 percent nickel, 7.5 meters grading 1.67 percent nickel, 2 meters grading 3.27 percent nickel and 1 meter grading 5.11 percent nickel. EV Nickel described the results as "very encouraging."
The Canadian nickel exploration company's share price started off the year at C$0.30 before steadily climbing to reach a year-to-date high of C$0.79 on May 17.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Canada Nickel Company is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
