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Source Rock Royalties
Investor Insight
Source Rock Royalties offers investors exposure to oil and gas production without operational costs, providing steady cash flow through its diversified portfolio of royalties and mineral rights.
Overview
Source Rock Royalties (TSXV:SRR) is a Calgary, Canada based company exclusively focused on oil & gas royalties in the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Source Rock's portfolio primarily consists of royalty interests focused on oil, with concentrations in southeast Saskatchewan, central Alberta and west-central Saskatchewan. The portfolio comprises:
- Various gross overriding royalty interests in southeast Saskatchewan.
- A gross overriding royalty in largely contiguous Clearwater interests in Central Alberta.
- A production volume royalty in Viking mineral rights in east-central Alberta.
- Various gross overriding royalties in central Alberta.
- Various gross overriding royalties in the west-central Saskatchewan Viking light oil play.
Since its inception, Source Rock Royalties has consistently pursued royalty acquisitions, even amidst significant energy market fluctuations. The company has primarily concentrated on non-marketed royalty acquisitions rather than opportunities marketed through formal third-party processes. Leveraging strong relationships within the oil and gas sector in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, Source Rock identifies and accesses niche royalty acquisitions.
Source Rock acquired new royalties worth nearly C$13 million in 2023 and a total of C$16.5 million since its IPO in March 2022. These acquisitions effectively doubled Source Rock’s royalty acreage, significantly enhancing both its current royalty production and its exposure to potential undeveloped drill locations. Source Rock generated C$6.6 million in royalty revenue in 2023, the highest in its 11-year history. Source Rock has generated C$5.8 million royalty revenue for the first nine months of 2024.
Source Rock endeavors to keep costs low, thereby maximizing cash flows. Aside from the CEO and CFO, additional technical oil and gas professionals are engaged by Source Rock as consultants on an as-needed basis. Source Rock Royalties employs only one full-time staff member. The low-cost base ensures consistent cash flows as evidenced by its more than 11+year track record of delivering positive funds from operations.
Strong cash flow allows the company to consistently pay dividends. Source Rock has paid ~$19 million in dividends to shareholders from 2014 to Q4 2024. Source Rock’s per share dividend has increased by 30 percent since March 2023.
The current monthly dividend is $0.0065 and is sustainable given that it can comfortably be funded by current operations even at a lower oil price scenario of ~C$60/bbl (or ~US$50/bbl WTI).
The management and board of directors have a proven track record of creating value in the oil & gas industry. The insiders own 10 percent of Source Rock’s common shares, aligning their interest to that of the shareholders by directly participating in the same financings as outside shareholders since inception. The company has a strong institutional shareholder with CN Rail Pension Fund owning approximately 20 percent of Source Rock’s common shares. Source Rock Royalties has a clean capital structure with only 45.5 million common shares issued and outstanding.
Source Rock focuses on a balanced growth and yield model, limiting volatility in returns for shareholders. Source Rock offers investors a unique opportunity to gain exposure to the oil & gas sector in Canada.
Company Highlights
- Source Rock Royalties is a Calgary, Canada based pure-play oil and gas royalty company, with a focus on Alberta and Saskatchewan; the only junior oil and gas royalty company listed on the TSXV.
- Source Rock Royalties concentrates on acquiring royalties in areas with proved reserves, foreseeable future high rate-of-return drilling upside, and partnering with operators that are financially and operationally prudent.
- Owning and managing royalties is a capital-light business model offering the benefit of sharing in production revenue without exposure to the capital costs associated with drilling, development, maintenance, abandonment, environmental and other obligations.
- Source Rock Royalties has a diversified oil-focused portfolio of royalty interests concentrated in southeast Saskatchewan, central Alberta, and west-central Saskatchewan with well-positioned royalty payors. Oil exposure allows for a strong netback (profit) per barrel even during periods of lower commodity prices.
- Source Rock Royalties has a proven track record of executing its balanced growth and yield business model. The company has achieved 11 years of positive cash flow and provided ~$19 million in dividends back to shareholders since 2014.
- Source Rock Royalties anticipates its current monthly dividend of $0.0065 to be comfortably funded with cash flow by current operations down to oil prices of ~C$60/bbl (or ~US$50/bbl WTI).
- The management and board of directors have a proven track record of creating value in the oil & gas industry. The insiders own 10 percent of Source Rock’s common shares, aligning their interests with that of the shareholders.
- The company has a strong institutional shareholder, with CN Rail Pension Fund owning approximately 20 percent of Source Rock’s common shares.
- Insiders and key shareholders have an average cost on their shares of ~$0.90 (there were never any cheap Founders or seed shares issued).
- Source Rock Royalties does not use debt in its business and always maintains a cash balance.
Royalty Assets
Source Rock's current portfolio comprises royalties primarily focused on oil (95 percent), spread across southeast Saskatchewan, central Alberta and west-central Saskatchewan. The company holds varying gross overriding royalties in more than 150,000 gross acres of land. Additionally, Source Rock owns a production volume royalty in Viking mineral interests situated in lands in east-central Alberta.
The majority of Source Rock's royalties are derived from top-line revenue, resulting in minimal exposure to deductions linked to production costs from wellbores and the sale of various commodities. Also, the majority of its current royalty payors are financially stable and possess robust capabilities to efficiently operate and enhance the value of the lands in which Source Rock holds royalties. Some of the key royalty payors include Whitecap Resources (TSX:WCP), Rubellite Energy (TSX:RBY), Surge Energy (TSX:SGY), Veren (TSX:VRN), Anova Resources (Private), Marling Resources (Private) and Axiom Oil & Gas (Private), among many others.
1. SE Saskatchewan Light Oil Gross Overriding Royalties
The company holds gross overriding royalties in approximately 35,000 gross acres of land in southeast Saskatchewan. The key operators include Whitecap Resources, Vermilion Energy (TSX:VET), Anova Resources (Private), Veren (TSX:VRN), Tundra Oil & Gas (Private), ROK Resources (TSXV:ROK), Woodland Development (Private) and Saturn Oil & Gas (TSX:SOIL). Future development activities on gross overriding royalty lands will be focused on the Frobisher Formation. The Frobisher Formation, characterized by shallow depths and conventional light oil, does not necessitate hydraulic fracturing, making it one of Canada's most economically viable light oil plays.
2. Clearwater Heavy Oil Gross Overriding Royalty
The company holds a gross overriding royalty in approximately 60,000 net acres (95 sections) of largely contiguous land in the Figure Lake area of central Alberta. Rubellite Energy is the operator of gross overriding royalty lands and the production is entirely from the Clearwater Formation. The gross overriding royalty initially carries a royalty rate of 1.5 percent until the cumulative royalty revenue received by Source Rock matches the purchase price. At that point, the royalty rate decreases to 1 percent. The operator has committed to drill 59 horizontal wells on the lands between December 2023 and June 2026.
3. Hamilton Lake Unit Viking Light Oil Royalty
Source Rock earns a production volume royalty supported by production from Hamilton Lake Unit and Viking lands of Axiom Oil & Gas. Pursuant to the production volume royalty agreement, Source Rock's remaining entitlement to royalty volumes from the Hamilton Lake Unit is as follows:
- 2024 – 75 bbl/d; 2025 – 70 bbl/d; 2026 – 39 bbl/d
- 2027 to 2034 – 20 percent lower on a per-day basis than the prior calendar year; and
- January 1, 2035 – conversion to a 0.50 percent gross overriding royalty in the Hamilton Lake Unit or a $500,000 pay-out, at the discretion of the royalty payor.
4. Central Alberta and Saskatchewan Gross Overriding Royalties
Source Rock owns varying gross overriding royalties in approximately 60,000 gross acres of land located in west-central Saskatchewan and central Alberta. The west-central Saskatchewan gross overriding royalty lands produce predominantly light oil from the Viking and Mannville formations. The Central Alberta gross overriding royalties produce from various formations and include exposure to several low-decline properties that are under waterflood.
Management Team
Brad Docherty – President, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Brad Docherty is the Founder of Source Rock Royalties, and has held the positions of president, chief executive officer and chairman of the company since its incorporation. Previously, he was a corporate finance & securities lawyer at Gowlings and served as the president, CEO and director of Exito Energy and Exitio Energy II, both capital pool companies on the TSXV.
Cheryne Lowe – Chief Financial Officer
Cheryne Lowe is a seasoned financial professional with extensive experience in companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. She also brings a background in the upstream oil and gas industry and the Canadian capital markets. Her most recent role was interim CFO at AgJunction (TSX:AJX), an agriculture technology company, which was acquired in late 2021. Previously, she served as CFO and corporate secretary at Pine Cliff Energy (TSX:PNE), and as vice-president finance and CFO at Orlen Upstream Canada and its predecessor, TriOil Resources. Lowe began her career with KPMG and later worked as an Institutional Research Associate with Tristone Capital.
John Bell – Director
John Bell is the president at Kerrobert Fuels and was previously the president and chief financial officer at WCSB Blockchain Infrastructure. Prior to this, he served as the director of finance at Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure (TSX:TWM).
Dean Potter – Director
Dean Potter serves as the executive chairman and CEO of Burgess Creek Exploration. Additionally, he is the president at DPX, a private company engaged in petroleum exploration and development. He is a member of the Saskatchewan oil and gas Hall of Fame and has more than 40 years of geological expertise that has been focused on making discoveries in SE Saskatchewan.
Gary McMurren – Director
Gary McMurren is the vice-president of engineering at Southern Energy (TSXV:SOU). He was previously the vice-president of engineering at Gulf Pine Energy Partners. Formerly, he held various engineering roles with Athabasca Oil (TSX:ATH).
Shaun Thiessen – Director
Shaun Thiessen is vice-president of land and business development at Astara Oil. Prior to this, he held the same title at Astra Oil from inception until its sale. Formerly, he was the director of land at PrairieSky Royalty (TSX:PSK).
Scott Rideout – Director
Scott Rideout is vice-president of land at Headwater Exploration (TSX:HWX). He was previously vice-president of land at Baytex Energy (TSX:BTE), and prior to that at Raging River Exploration until its sale.
June-Marie Innes – Director
June-Marie Innes is currently CFO at Thread Innovations. She previously held progressively more senior roles at Tamarack Valley Energy (TSX:TVE).
Jordan Kevol – Director
Jordan Kevol is currently COO at Westgate Energy (TSXV:WGT), a private oil and gas producer. Previously, he was the president and CEO of Blackspur Oil.
Pure-play on oil & gas royalties in Western Canada
Oil and Gas Price Update: Q1 2025 in Review
“The macroeconomic conditions that underpin our oil demand projections deteriorated over the past month as trade tensions escalated between the United States and several other countries,” a March oil market report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) notes, highlighting the downside risks of US tariffs and retaliatory measures.
The instability and weaker-than-expected consumption from advanced and developing economies prompted the IEA to downgrade its growth estimates for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 to about 1.2 million barrels per day.
Despite the uncertain outlook, an announcement that OPEC+ would extend a 2.2 million barrel per day production cut into Q2 added some support to the market amid global growth concerns and rising output in the US.
Prices spiked at the end of March, pushing both benchmarks to within a dollar of their 2025 start values. However, the rally was short-lived and prices had plummeted by April 9.
Oil prices fall as OPEC hikes output and supply risks mount
WTI price performance, December 31, 2024, to April 23, 2025.
Chart via the Investing News Network.
Sinking to four year lows, Brent and WTI fell below the critical US$60 per barrel threshold, to US$58.62 (Brent) and US$55.38 (WTI), lows not seen since April 2021. The decline saw prices shed more than 21 percent between January and April shaking the market and investor confidence.
“We're into the supply destruction territories for some of the high cost producers,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, told the Investing News Network. “It will not play out today or tomorrow, because a lot of these producers are forward hedging as part of their production.”
Watch Hansen discuss where oil and other commodities are heading.
According to Hansen, if prices remain in the high US$50 range US production will likely decrease, aiding in a broader market realignment. "Eventually we will see production start to slow in the US, probably other places as well, and that will help balance the market,” the expert explained in the interview. “Helping to offset some of the risk related to recession, but also some of the production increases that we're seeing from OPEC.”
In early April, OPEC+ did an about face when it announced plans for a significant increase in oil production, marking its first output hike since 2022. The group plans to add 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) to the market starting in May, effectively accelerating its previously gradual supply increase strategy.
Although the group cited “supporting market stability” as the reasoning behind the increase, some analysts believe the decision is a punitive one targeted at countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan who consistently exceed production quotas.
“(The increase) is basically in order to punish some of the over producers,” said Hansen. He went on to explain that Kazakhstan produced 400,000 barrels beyond its quota.
If these countries return to their agreed limits, it could offset OPEC’s planned production hikes.
At the same time, US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela may tighten global supply further, while a growing military presence in the Middle East also signals rising geopolitical risks, particularly involving Iran.
Oil price forecast for 2025
As such Hansen expects prices to fluctuate between US$60 to US$80 for the rest of the year.
“(I am) struggling to see, prices collapse much further than that, simply because it will have a counterproductive impact on supply and that will eventually help stabilize prices,” said Hansen.
Hansen’s projections also fall inline with data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The organization downgraded the US$74 Brent price forecast it set in March to US$68 in April.
The EIA foresees US and global oil production to continue rising in 2025, as OPEC+ speeds up its planned output increases and US energy remains exempt from new tariffs.
Starting mid-year, global oil inventories are projected to build. However, the EIA warns that economic uncertainty could dampen demand growth for petroleum products, potentially falling short of earlier forecasts.
“The combination of growing supply and lower demand leads EIA to expect the Brent crude oil price to average less than US$70 per barrel in 2025 and fall to an average of just over US$60 per barrel in 2026,” the April report read.
Supply concerns add tailwinds for natural gas
On the natural gas side, Q1 was marked by tight conditions amid rising demand. A colder-than-normal winter led to increased consumption, with US natural gas withdrawals in Q1 exceeding the five-year average.
Starting the year at US$3.59 per metric million British thermal units, prices rose to a year-to-date high of US$4.51 on March 10. Values pulled back by the end of the 90 day period to the US$4.09 level, registering a 13.9 percent increase for Q1.
"Cold weather during January and February led to increased natural gas consumption and large natural gas withdrawals from inventories,” a March report from the EIA explains.
Natural gas price performance, December 31, 2024, to April 23, 2025.
Chart via the Investing News Network.
“(The) EIA now expects natural gas inventories to fall below 1.7 trillion cubic feet at the end of March, which is 10 percent below the previous five-year average and 6 percent less natural gas in storage for that time of year than EIA had expected last month," the document continues.
Natural gas price forecast for 2025
Following record setting demand growth in 2024 the gas market is expected to remain tight through 2025, amid market expansion from Asian countries.
The IEA also pointed to price volatility brought on geopolitical tensions as a factor that could move markets.
“Though the halt of Russian piped gas transit via Ukraine on 1 January 2025 does not pose an imminent supply security risk for the European Union, it could increase LNG import requirements and tighten market fundamentals in 2025,” the organization notes in a gas market report for Q1.
Although the market is forecasted to remain tight the IEA expects growth in global gas demand to slow to below 2 percent in 2025. Similarly to 2024’s trajectory, growth is set to be largely driven by Asia, which is expected to account for almost 45 percent of incremental gas demand, the report read.
THe US-based EIA has a more optimistic outlook for the domestic gas sector, projecting the annual demand growth rate to be 4 percent for 2025.
“This increase is led by an 18 percent increase in exports and a 9 percent increase in residential and commercial consumption for space heating,” an April EIA market overview states.
The report attributes the expected export growth to increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments out of two new LNG export facilities, Plaquemines Phase 1 and Golden Pass LNG.
Venture Global's (NYSE:VG) Plaquemines LNG facility in Louisiana commenced production in December 2024 and is currently in the commissioning phase.
Once fully operational, it is expected to have a capacity of 20 million metric tons per annum. The facility has entered into binding long-term sales agreements for its full capacity
Golden Pass LNG, a joint venture between ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) and state-owned QatarEnergy, is under construction in Sabine Pass, Texas. The project has faced delays due to the bankruptcy of a key contractor, with Train 1 now expected to be operational by late 2025 . Upon completion, Golden Pass LNG will have an export capacity of up to 18.1 million metric tons per annum.
The EIA forecasts natural gas prices to average US$4.30 in 2025, a US$2.10 increase from 2025. Farther ahead the EIA has a more modest forecast of US$4.60 for 2026.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Jupiter Energy
Investor Insight
Jupiter Energy’s strong cash flow, substantial proven recoverable reserves, and strategic foothold in resource-rich Kazakhstan present a compelling investment opportunity. Its commitment to sustainability—reinforced by a recent strategic investment in 100 percent gas utilization infrastructure—further enhances its long-term investor appeal.
Overview
Jupiter Energy Limited (ASX:JPR) is an established oil exploration and production company that operates three oilfields in Kazakhstan. The company is currently producing approximately 600 to 700 barrels of oil per day from its licensed fields, having successfully navigated Kazakhstan’s regulatory and operational landscape since 2008. Its operations are fully compliant, with its three full commercial production licenses secured until 2045/46/46.
Jupiter Energy is recognized as a reliable operator in Kazakhstan, holding 100 percent ownership of its licenses, which span approximately 123 sq km in the oil-rich Mangistau region. Strategically located near the port city of Aktau, its license area benefits from proximity to established oil processing facilities and extensive oil and gas infrastructure, including key pipeline connections to the country’s major refineries (see Figure 1).
The company has successfully navigated regulatory requirements to achieve full commercial production across its three oilfields—Akkar East, Akkar North (East Block), and West Zhetybai—all operating under 25-year commercial licenses. Jupiter’s strong compliance and operational framework reinforce its commitment to long-term, sustainable production in Kazakhstan.
Jupiter Energy’s reserve base has been independently confirmed by a Sproule International competent person’s report (CPR), effective 31 December 2023, detailing significant recoverable reserves.
According to the Sproule International CPR, released in January 2024, Jupiter Energy’s recoverable reserves under the SPE/PRMS classification are as follows:
- 1P Reserves: 14.691 million barrels (mmbbls)
- 2P Reserves: 36.487 mmbbls
- 3P Reserves: 46.796 mmbbls
These figures confirm Jupiter’s substantial reserve base, and correlate with its Kazakh State Approved Reserves which are recorded at approximately 52 mmbbls recoverable (using the GOST C1 + C2 classification methodology) (see Figure 2).
Figure 1: Total reserves for the Mangistau basin are estimated to be in excess of 5 billion barrels including two large oil fields, Uzen and Zhetybai.
On November 15, 2024, Jupiter Energy announced the completion of its gas pipeline integration project, connecting the Akkar East and Akkar North (East Block) oilfields to neighboring gas utilization facilities operated by its larger neighbour, MangistauMunaiGas (MMG). This integration ensures 100 percent utilization of all its associated gas, aligning with Kazakhstan’s environmental goals and enabling the Company to drill further wells whilst continuing to comply with Kazakhstan’s strict 100% gas utilisation policy.
The company plans to connect the West Zhetybai oilfield to this infrastructure as this oilfield is further developed. This project strengthens Jupiter’s relationships with MMG and the Kazakh Ministry of Energy, facilitating long-term production under its commercial licenses and enabling it to sell its oil into both the Kazakh domestic market as well as international oil markets.
Company Highlights
- Operating in Kazakhstan since 2008, with three oilfields under licence. The area is known as Block 36 (formerly Block 31).
- Holds commercial production licenses for all three of its oilfields, valid until 2045/2046/2046.
- Current production is approximately 640 barrels per day from four production wells, with plans to increase to approximately 1,000 barrels per day during 2025, with the drilling of a new production well (assuming success).
- Recent independent after-tax NPV of the oilfields (using a 20 percent discount) of US$180 million. This compares favourably to the Company’s current EV of approximately AU$63.5 million (~US$38 million) – based on a share price of AU$0.03 and balance sheet debt of ~$US15.1m.
- Operates in West Kazakhstan in the Mangistau region, a proven area for Kazakhstan’s oil reserves (see Figure 1).
- The company is cash flow positive at an operational level.
- Key shareholders include long term holders, Waterford (60 percent) and Blackbird Trust (21 percent).
- Jupiter’s recent strategic investment in its onfield gas utilisation infrastructure, signifies its commitment to sustainable operations, contribution to the welfare of the local community and support for Kazakhstan’s longer term commitment to a carbon free operating environment in the oil local industry.
Key Project: Block 36
Figure 2: Outline of Jupiter Energy’s oilfields located on Block 36
Block 36 is Jupiter Energy’s flagship project located in the Mangistau Basin of West Kazakhstan. Covering an area of approximately 123 sq km, it lies in a highly prospective region with proven oil reserves. The company acquired extensive 3D seismic data over the entire block and surrounding areas, totaling 235 sq km, which then enabled the identification of multiple drilling targets. The current reserve base covers 35 sq km, with further exploration targets available for drilling on the licence area, when funding for further exploration wells is available.
Jupiter has drilled nine wells on Block 36, targeting the Akkar North (East Block), Akkar East, and West Zhetybai oilfields (see Figure 3). The current production from Block 36 is approximately 640 barrels of oil per day, with plans to increase output to around 1,000 barrels per day during 2025, assuming success with the drilling of a new production well in 2H 2025. Further increases in production may also come via the workovers of existing wells and the drilling of further new wells, planned from 2025 to 2030.
Figure 3: Well locations on Block 36
At the helm of Jupiter Energy is a highly experienced corporate and technical leadership team, driving the company towards achieving its goals and increasing shareholder value.
Management Team
Geoff Gander - Chairman and CEO
Geoff Gander graduated from the University of Western Australia in 1984, where he completed a Bachelor of Commerce degree. He has been involved in the listing and running of public companies since 1994. He was appointed as a director of Jupiter Energy in January 2005 and he is currently responsible for the overall operational leadership of the company, as well as investor relations and group corporate development.
Baltabek Kuandykov - Non-executive Director
Baltabek Kuandykov is currently the president of Meridian Petroleum, a privately held Kazakh oil & gas company. He was formerly the president of Nelson Resources, an oil development and production company operating in Kazakhstan which was listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange until its acquisition by Lukoil in 2005. Kuandykov has considerable experience in the oil and gas industry in the region, having served as president of Kazakhoil (predecessor of the Kazakh State oil company KazMunaiGas), and is a well-respected consultant to Chevron Overseas Petroleum on CIS projects. He also worked in a senior capacity for Kazneftegazrazvedka and was president of Kazakhstancaspishelf. Kuandykov has extensive government experience in Kazakhstan, having served as deputy minister of geology, head of the oil and gas directorate at the Ministry of Geology, and was deputy minister of energy and fuel resources.
Alexey Kruzhkov - Non-executive Director
Alexey Kruzhkov holds an engineering degree and an MBA with over 10 years’ experience working in the investment industry, focusing primarily on the oil & gas, mining and real estate sectors. He has served as a director on the boards of companies listed in Canada and Norway. He is a member of the executive team of Waterford Finance and Investment Limited. He holds British and Russian citizenship.
Alexander Kuzev - Non-executive Director
Alexander Kuzev is an oil industry professional with over 26 years of experience. Most of his career has been spent working in the Former Soviet Union with much of that time responsible for the overall management of field operations with a focus on production sustainability, technology and field maintenance. He brings an important technical advisory skill set to the Jupiter Energy board, as well as in-country experience, having been involved with various Kazakhstan-based oil and gas operations since the late 1990s.
Keith Martens - Non-executive Director
Keith Martens has over 40 years’ experience as an oil finder and manager around the world. He has served as a technical advisor and consultant to a number of Australian oil & gas companies, and was instrumental in the discovery of Jupiter’s Akkar East and West Zhetybai oil fields when he was consulting to Jupiter Energy between 2007 and 2014. More recently, Martens has been working on the Eastern Margin of the Permian Basin in Texas with Winchester Energy and in the Paradox Basin in Utah and Colorado, as both lead explorationist and non-executive chairman of ASX listed Grand Gulf Energy (ASX:GGE).Source Rock Royalties Investor Kit
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