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Cobalt Market Forecast and Cobalt Stocks to Buy in 2024
Cobalt Market Update: Q1 2024 in Review
The cobalt market put on a mixed performance in the first quarter of 2024 as metal prices stalled and contracted, while sulfate and hydroxide values increased.
The sector is divided into three segments. Cobalt metal is used as an alloy to strengthen and harden, while cobalt hydroxide is used in lithium-ion batteries, electronics and paint pigments.
Lastly, cobalt sulfate is used to make storage batteries, electroplating baths and some animal feed.
After reaching a second all-time price high in 2022 — US$82,200 per metric ton (MT) — cobalt metal prices have been retracting. They spent the first month of the year locked at the US$29,134.30 level, but sank to a three year low of US$27,215 on April 15. By the end of the quarter, cobalt metal had seen a 2.01 percent erosion in value.
Although cobalt metal prices declined during Q1, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence Pricing Analyst Roman Aubry noted that the rest of the market exhibited strength during the first 90 days of 2024.
“Benchmark has only seen a price decline for cobalt metal in Q1 of 2024; most of our cobalt grades have seen a slight positive trend on the back of rising cobalt hydroxide prices,” he told the Investing News Network (INN) via email.
What factors impacted cobalt supply and demand in Q1?
According to the US Geological Survey's latest report on cobalt, mine supply of the battery metal ballooned in 2023, growing 16.75 percent year-over-year, from 197,000 MT in 2022 to 230,000 MT in 2023.
The vast majority (170,000 MT) was mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). In fact, the five largest cobalt mines in the world are located in the African nation.
As Adam Webb, product director at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, explained during a late March webinar, the cobalt deposits in the DRC are much richer compared to anywhere else globally.
These high-grade areas have attracted the attention of Chinese mining companies, particularly China Molybdenum (SHA:603993,OTC Pink:CMCLF), which is now the largest cobalt producer in the DRC and the world.
With cobalt demand projected to increase by 60 to 70 percent by 2040, the DRC is projected to play a vital role in the energy transition. The country will be responsible for filling most of the additional 214,000 MT of cobalt demand expected by 2030, as it is the only country that can deliver this level of cobalt supply growth, explained Webb.
As Aubry, a colleague of Webb, noted in an email to INN, most of this increased cobalt supply originating in the DRC will end up in electric vehicles (EVs), which is a positive trend for the market.
“It’s hard to understate just how much demand will be added to the cobalt market by the EV industry,” he said. “Already it has become the largest demand sector, and its dominance is only set to grow.”
This sentiment was reiterated in the latest edition of the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Global EV Outlook, which forecasts a significant surge in EV sales, with one in five cars sold worldwide expected to be electric this year.
The report notes that global EV sales are projected to top 17 million by the end of 2024, with China leading the charge with roughly 10 million units. Europe and the US are also seeing increased growth in EV adoption, despite a generally weak outlook for passenger car sales. The report attributes this growth to substantial investment in the EV supply chain, ongoing policy support and declines in prices for EVs and batteries. Under current policies, nearly one in three cars in China and one in five in the US and EU are expected to be electric by 2030.
“The continued momentum behind electric cars is clear in our data, although it is stronger in some markets than others,” wrote IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “Rather than tapering off, the global EV revolution appears to be gearing up for a new phase of growth. The wave of investment in battery manufacturing suggests the EV supply chain is advancing to meet automakers’ ambitious plans for expansion.”
Sustained growth in the EV space helped to catalyze cobalt chemical prices during the second month of the year.
“From mid-February onwards, we saw an uptick in demand for cobalt chemicals, particularly from cobalt sulphate, as nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) battery cathode manufacturers began to restock their cobalt chemical reserves, in anticipation for increased demand from Tier 1 cell suppliers for high-end EV models,” said Aubry.
Cobalt surplus seen lasting into 2025
Although the long-term outlook for cobalt remains positive, Aubry pointed to various near-term challenges.
“The cobalt market is presently very bearish; the source of this is a significant oversupply of cobalt hydroxide,” he said. “Our forecasting team estimates the cobalt oversupply to be around 12,400 tonnes in 2024.”
The Benchmark team expects this surplus position to last into 2025.
Another factor that could weigh on the cobalt market and prices is battery chemistry, according to Aubry.
“Currently the biggest threat to cobalt is the adoption of lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) chemistries for EVs; China in particular has been rapidly increasing LFP production,” he explained. “Despite this, cobalt demand overall is expected to go up considerably even if LFP displaces NCM chemistries significantly due to the sheer potential of EV growth.”
Benchmark projects that NCM batteries will “maintain over 40 percent market share, particularly in the west where consumers value distance covered in a single charge.”
“The EV market is set to take off further in the coming years, and critical components, like cobalt, will quickly see their demand rise much faster than the supply can match,” said Aubry. “By 2030, a significant supply gap will form, and if the market does not sufficiently adapt, we may see cobalt prices exceed the heights of 2022.”
While cobalt-containing batteries are likely to retain a broad chunk of the market despite LFP growth, one headwind that has the potential to disrupt output is mined supply. “The biggest pain point in cobalt is in mining capacity more than refining. In that aspect, additional refining capacity will certainly help alleviate some of this pressure; however, there is still a fundamental difference in what the demand is for the market compared to what is supplied. While refining capacity may increase prices for some cobalt grades, it may in turn hurt others,” noted Aubry.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates.
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
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Cobalt Market Update: Q2 2024 in Review
Prices for cobalt metal continued to contract in Q2 on the back of oversupply. Meanwhile, values for alloy-grade cobalt saw some growth due to increased demand in the aerospace and defense sectors.
Starting the 90 day session at US$28,551.80 per tonne, prices for cobalt metal shed 4.93 percent through Q2, ending the period at US$27,143.90. “We've seen prices for standard grade kind of draw down to eight year lows, despite the energy transition demand in the space that's been moving forward,” said Alex Cook, senior price reporter at Fastmarkets.
At Fastmarkets' Lithium Supply and Battery Raw Materials event, Cook noted that increased production in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Indonesia and China outpaced demand growth and impeded price momentum.
Reiterating that point in a July report, Cook and Angeline Shi, also of Fastmarkets, note that China’s CMOC Group (OTC Pink:CMCLF,SHA:603993) produced 54,024 tonnes of cobalt metal in the first half of the year, achieving 83 percent of its annual guidance of 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes. This surge, which added to an already oversupplied market, was reportedly driven by the expansion of CMOC’s TFM mine, along with increased monthly output at the KFM mines in the DRC.
As Cook explained, Fastmarkets expects cobalt metal prices to trend lower through the third quarter of 2024.
Cobalt metal price graph, June 2022 to April 2024.
Chart via Fastmarkets.
While cobalt metal prices remained muted in Q2, Cook noted that there is a growing price discrepancy between the value of cobalt metal, or standard-grade material, and alloy-grade material.
The spread between alloy-grade and standard-grade cobalt has widened to its largest point since 2009. Strong demand from the US aerospace sector has created a premium for approved aerospace brands amid supply tightness, he noted.
“We are seeing alloy grade at a premium,” Cook told the audience at the Fast markets event. “The main demand source at the moment is aerospace demand, and military defense applications as well.”
Additionally, a 25 percent US tariff on Chinese cobalt metal is somewhat restricting long-term imports. While some have opted to pay the tariff, Cook sees that trend as unsustainable.
He also highlighted a discrepancy between low standard-grade and high standard-grade prices. Supply disruptions for some western brands have created a small premium, with deals clustering around the higher end of the range. The rapid expansion of production capacity for Chinese brands has increased their availability, further widening the range.
Oversupply creating cobalt price pressure
Last year, global cobalt mine supply jumped 16.75 percent year-over-year, rising from 197,000 tonnes in 2022 to 230,000 in 2023. Both the DRC and Indonesia saw significant production increases, with the DRC's output climbing from 144,000 tonnes in 2022 to 170,000 in 2023 — that amounts to 74 percent of global supply. Indonesian production grew from 9,600 tonnes to 17,000 tonnes during the same timeframe, making up 8 percent of supply.
With higher mine output from the DRC and Indonesia, and increased refinery production in China, Fastmarkets is forecasting a 10,000 tonne surplus for 2024, which will add to price headwinds. This despite China’s State Reserve Bureau (SRB) making a strategic cobalt acquisition of 15,000 tonnes for delivery by the end of the year.
“Initially the (stockpiling) provided a boost to standard-grade prices; (however), the low end has since fallen to levels seen before the SRB purchase,” explained Cook. Moving forward, the SRB's 15,000 tonne acquisition could be offset by heightened production in China through the second half of the year.
Elsewhere, high copper prices are likely to keep cobalt by-product production in the DRC at elevated levels.
Indonesian cobalt supply is the result of high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL), a process used to extract nickel and cobalt from laterite ore bodies. Fastmarkets expects this space to grow significantly in the next decade.
“An increase in Indonesian HPAL capacity will more than double its share of cobalt mine supply by 2028," said Cook. “Indonesia will account for 19 percent of mine supply by 2028.”
With this increased production in the DRC and Indonesia, Fastmarkets anticipates that the market will take in an additional 52,000 tonnes of cobalt supply by 2028.
On the demand side, the battery segment will continue to drive growth. In 2023, batteries accounted for 73 percent of global cobalt demand, and according to Fastmarkets, demand from the sector is projected to rise at a CAGR of 12.5 percent between 2023 and 2028. This increase will boost the battery sector's share of demand to 81 percent.
In contrast, demand growth from superalloys and other sectors is expected to be much lower. These segments have estimated CAGRs of 4.4 percent and 2 percent, respectively.
Low prices weighing on western cobalt supply
Outside the DRC and Indonesia, cobalt mines have been impacted by weak prices.
“Those low prices that we've seen have really started to threaten the development of western cobalt capacity,” said Cook.
“Already over the last 12 to 18 months, we've seen a US cobalt mine having to be shuttered because of the low price environment — the breakeven cost is far higher than the market price," he added.
In April, cobalt- and nickel-focused Jervois Global (TSXV:JRV,ASX:JRV,OTCQB:JRVMF) suspended final construction and full concentrator commissioning at its Idaho Cobalt Operations (ICO).
“ICO’s mineral resource and reserve is the largest and highest grade confirmed cobalt orebody in the US and when commissioned will represent the country’s only primary cobalt mine supply,” the company said.
“Jervois has determined that not mining ICO cobalt at cyclically low prices, will preserve the optionality and inherent strategic value of ICO for shareholders and key stakeholders including local communities and the State of Idaho. The company also views not mining ICO at current prices is consistent with US Government critical mineral policy objectives.”
ICO isn't the only cobalt endeavor that has sidelined by a changing environment.
In late June, BASF (OTCQX:BFFAF,FWB:BASF) decided against a US$2.6 billion investment in a nickel and cobalt refinery. Although the move was largely attributed to increasing global availability of nickel, cobalt will be affected too.
BASF initially announced the plan with Eramet (EPA:ERA) in 2020, and the refinery project was expected to output 42,000 tonnes of nickel and 5,000 tonnes of cobalt annually for BASF.
What factors will move the cobalt market in 2024?
The cobalt market saw more stability in late June as some excess supply was absorbed.
“Prices continued their steady decline in June due to persistent oversupply from mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia,” FocusEconomics' July Consensus Forecast reads. “Against this backdrop of low prices, several hedge funds have recently entered the cobalt market as buyers, providing some support to pricing.”
Overall, Fastmarkets expects to see demand for cobalt increase in 2024, but believes this increased demand will not be enough to offset rising supply, leading to another year of surplus.
“(For) alloy grade it’s a little bit different,” said Cook. “We're seeing the opposite in that demand is actually increasing far above the availability of supply.” However, he did note that alloy demand is a small segment of the cobalt market.
“Our research team expects cobalt supply to continue to increase year-on-year, dominated by China. We are expecting China’s refined cobalt supply capacity to increase as well,” said Cook.
While Fastmarkets sees continued price pressure and bearishness in the cobalt industry for the remainder of the year, FocusEconomics has painted a more optimistic picture.
“Prices will surge from current levels by year-end on the back of resilient demand for electric vehicles (EVs), as well as speculative buying from hedge funds and planned stockpiling in China,” its report states. “In the longer term, prices will increase further as the metal is used in electronic applications and lithium-ion batteries, which are widely used in EVs.”
FocusEconomics panelists are projecting that cobalt prices will reach US$34,526 in Q4.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates.
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Additional information on Cobalt stock investing — FREE
Top 3 Canadian Cobalt Stocks in 2024
The first months of 2024 saw cobalt take a bearish stance, constrained by excess supply and eroding demand.
Cobalt prices faced many headwinds at the beginning of the year, and they pulled the value of the battery metal down by 2.01 percent between January and the end of March. After starting the calendar year at US$29,134 per metric ton (MT), cobalt metal prices had fallen to US$28,548 by the end of the three month session.
The sluggish market conditions were attributed to reduced demand from the battery sector and oversupply of material. As a result, prices remained under pressure, with limited signs of improvement expected in the near term.
“Electric vehicle and electronic batteries still comprise a large portion of cobalt demand, although the power battery production landscape in China encountered challenges in the past year,” a January report from S&P Global Commodity Insights states. “A notable decline in growth rates, particularly in the production of batteries with a nickel-manganese-cobalt chemistry, has led market sources to hold a cautiously optimistic outlook for Q1.”
Concerns over the economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have also added to the market uncertainty.
The first 30 days of Q2 haven’t offered relief to the cobalt market, with prices falling below US$28,000 in mid-April.
These tough market conditions were reflected in the performance of the sector’s exploration and mining companies. However, despite the challenges, three companies have been able to make gains in the current market.
Below is a look at the three top cobalt stocks on the TSX and TSXV by share price performance so far this year. All year-to-date and share price information was obtained on May 1, 2024, using TradingView’s stock screener, and all companies listed had market caps above C$10 million at that time. Read on to learn more about their activities.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 15.38 percent; market cap: C$32.94 million; current share price: C$0.60
Canada-based exploration and development company Electra states it is actively involved in processing low-carbon, ethically sourced battery materials. The company is working to develop North America's sole cobalt sulfate refinery while operating a black mass recycling demonstration plant. Black mass is obtained from end-of-life lithium-ion batteries.
Electra is also progressing exploration efforts at its Iron Creek cobalt and copper project in the Idaho Cobalt Belt, and expanding its cobalt sulfate processing capabilities in Bécancour, Québec.
In early February, Electra released an update on its black mass demonstration plant near Toronto. The overview notes that recent optimizations have enhanced the recovery of lithium, nickel, cobalt and other essential minerals, improving the quality of saleable end products. Further optimization studies will include metal recovery from internal recycling streams, and Electra said preliminary lab results suggest positive prospects for isolating cobalt from nickel in the leach liquor.
On February 9, the company received a C$5 million investment from the Canadian government for the construction of its cobalt sulfate refinery. The refinery, which will be situated in Temiskaming Shores, Ontario, aims to supply roughly 5 percent of the world's battery-grade cobalt essential for electric vehicles. The C$5 million grant is being dispersed through the Federal Economic Development Initiative for Northern Ontario.
“Canada has surpassed China as the top jurisdiction in the global battery supply chain, given its strength in raw materials mining and processing,” Trent Mell, Electra’s CEO, said. “Today’s investment from the Government of Canada means that Northern Ontario will seize the economic opportunities created by Canada’s transition to a green economy.”
Shares of Electra reached a year-to-date high of C$0.97 on February 15.
Press Releases
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 6.67 percent; market cap: C$87.67 million; current share price: C$0.32
FPX Nickel is currently advancing its Decar nickel district in BC, Canada. The property comprises four key targets, with the Baptiste deposit being the primary focus, alongside the Van target.
FPX Nickel also has three other nickel projects in BC and one in the Yukon, Canada. While nickel extraction is its main focus, the company plans to produce cobalt as a by-product from future mining operations at the Baptiste site.
In mid-January, FPX secured a C$14.4 million strategic equity investment from Sumitomo Metal Mining Canada, a subsidiary of Japanese nickel miner Sumitomo Metal Mining (TSE:5713).
Martin Turenne, president and CEO of FPX, noted that Sumitomo's investment is a substantial validation of Baptiste, highlighting Sumitomo Metal Mining's expertise in nickel production and supply chain diversification.
Shortly after the Sumitomo news, FPX announced the “company’s three strategic investors have fully exercised their participation rights to re-establish their respective initial ownership interest in FPX’s issued and outstanding common shares.” The exercise resulted in the completion of an additional private placement, where a total of 8,981,971 common shares were issued to the strategic investors at C$0.48 each, generating C$4,311,346 in proceeds.
With approximately C$45 million on hand, including the proceeds, FPX expects to be fully funded for its 2024 and 2025 activities. Shares of FPX spiked following the news and reached a year-to-date high of C$0.40 on February 5.
Investor Kit
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 5 percent; market cap: C$123.16 million; current share price: C$0.31
Sherritt International is a leading global player in hydrometallurgical processes for nickel and cobalt extraction. At its Moa joint venture, located in Cuba, Sherritt is pursuing a 25 year expansion program to boost annual mixed sulfide precipitate output by 20 percent, equating to 6,500 MT of nickel and cobalt.
On January 15, Sherritt announced it was implementing organization-wide cost-cutting measures to enhance operations in response to market conditions. Part of these efforts included a corporate restructuring and a 10 percent reduction in Canadian staff. In February, the company released its 2023 results and 2024 guidance. In the report, Sherritt notes that total cobalt production on a 100 percent basis was 2,876 MT, “slightly below their annual guidance ranges.”
For 2024, the company is anticipating an uptick in nickel and cobalt production “due to increased feed of mixed sulphides from the Moa mine site to the refinery as a result of access to additional ore sources.”
Sherritt shares marked a year-to-date high on April 10 of C$0.36.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: FPX Nickel is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
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