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Firetail Resources
Overview
Firetail Resources (ASX:FTL) is an Australian exploration company building a strategic portfolio of battery metals in Australia and Peru.
Batteries are a critical foundation of the transition to a greener and more sustainable future. Consequently, between electric vehicles and renewable energy, global demand for batteries is expected to increase from 185 GWh in 2020 to over 2,000 GWh by 2030. This is expected to have a profound impact on the market for battery and base metals such as lithium, nickel, cobalt and copper.
Firetail Resources aims to leverage this significant opportunity to find the critical resources to support the world’s journey to electrification. Under the direction of a proven board and management team with decades of collective experience in mining exploration, development and production, Firetail Resources boasts a diversified asset portfolio with multiple drill-ready targets and advanced exploration projects that all have tremendous potential to increase shareholder value.
Firetail's Australian Yalgoo-Dalgaranga, Mt. Slopeaway and Paterson projects are all located in proven geologic domains and display significant upside for substantial mineral resources. The company's more recent acquisition of two projects in Peru strongly complements these assets.
As the world's third-largest copper producer, Peru has a massive mining industry with a strong prominence in the country’s national economy. Long recognized as an excellent, low-risk mining jurisdiction, the country recently approved roughly $600 million worth of new mining projects. Unsurprisingly, nearly every major global mining company is either operating in the jurisdiction or is aware of it.
Although only recently acquired, Firetail's Picha Copper project is now one of its most promising assets. The Picha Project was acquired as part of a deal that includes a farm-in agreement with Barrick Gold Corporation (TSE:ABX) for an earn-in of up to 70 percent interest in the Charaque Project.
Picha is located along a NNW regional trend of carbonate-replacement (CRD) and epithermal deposits, including the San Gabriel Gold Project (Buenaventura NYSE:BVN), which is fully permitted and in construction; and the Berenguela Ag, Cu, Mn, Zn Deposit (Aftermath Silver TSXV:AAG).
In 2024, Firetail Resources announced the acquisition of York Harbour copper project, Canada. The company has signed a binding option agreement to acquire up to 80 percent of York Harbour project via a staged earn-in. York Harbour is a Cyprus-style volcanogenic massive sulphide (VMS) exploration project, located 180 km west-south-west of FireFly Metals Ltd (ASX:FFM) Green Bay copper project.
With a diversified portfolio of battery and base metals assets in two leading mining jurisdictions, Firetail is perfectly positioned to take advantage of the transition to green energy, driving considerable shareholder value in the process.
Company Highlights
- Demand for batteries is expected to exponentially increase by 2030, consequently driving the demand for battery and base metals.
- An Australian exploration company, Firetail Resources is well-positioned to take advantage of this market trend via a portfolio of Australian and Peruvian battery metals projects.
- Firetail's drill-ready assets are supported by smart field exploration and drilling programs to unlock their resource potential and increase shareholder value.
- The company's current portfolio of assets includes lithium, copper, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, lead, zinc and nickel.
- All of Firetail's exploration activities are directed by a board and management team with a proven track record in mineral exploration, development and production.
Key Projects
Picha (Copper)
Located in Southern Peru's Moquegua and Puno departments, Picha represents Firetail's most recent acquisition. Intended as a complement to the company's portfolio of battery metals assets, the highly prospective 200-square-kilometre copper project hosts multiple drill-ready targets which Firetail plans to test in the coming months. Picha was obtained as part of a deal that included a farm-in agreement with Barrick Gold Corporation for the Charaque Project located 30 kilometres to the northeast.
Firetail recently confirmed its official drill permit for Picha and site preparations are underway for a October drilling campaign.
Project Highlights
- Promising Geology: Picha is located within Peru's Epithermal Au-Ag-Cu-Pb-Zn metallogenic zone along a north-northwest regional trend of carbonate-replacement and epithermal deposits.
- Nearby Projects: Picha is situated roughly 17 kilometres east-northeast of Compania de Minas Buenaventura's San Gabriel gold-copper-silver project, which hosts:
- Reserves of 14.9 Mt with 4.04 grams per ton (g/t) gold and 6.43 g/t silver representing 1.94 Moz gold.
- Resources of 24.86 Mt with 2.10 g/t gold and 8.46 g/t silver.
- Multiple Mineralisation: The project is prospective for multiple styles of copper mineralisation, including epithermal, stratabound, polymetallic carbonate replacement and porphyry-style. It also hosts several untested and geologically significant geochemical and geophysical anomalies, displaying similar mineralisation to the Storm/Seal copper project on Somerset Island.
- Significant Exploration Potential: Firetail has identified 13 exploration targets through a combination of geological mapping, surface sampling and geophysical surveys. Thus far, the company has collected 651 rock/chip samples and 289 soil samples and performed 118 line-kilometre IPs and 240 line-kilometre magnetic surveys. Highlights of its exploration work include:
- Widespread surface copper mineralisation coincident with IP anomalies.
- Channel Sample Results
- Cobremani: 41.6 metres at 1.12 percent copper and 22.85 g/t gold.
- Maricate: 17.6 metres at 1.95 percent copper and 29.58 g/t gold.
- Cumbre Coya: 32.85 metres at 0.61 percent copper and 209.76 g/t gold.
- Fundicion Target: Identification of a large chargeability anomaly reflecting potential sulphide mineralisation and/or alteration at depth indicative of a large porphyry body. This anomaly is roughly 2 kilometres long and 2 kilometres across at its widest point.
- Additional Drill Targets: Firetail's second IP survey revealed additional anomalies, including:
- Ichucollo: Semi-contiguous 2.5-kilometre long IP anomaly with coincident surface mineralisation and sample results of 24 metres at 1.08 percent copper, 13 metres at 1.38 percent copper and 30 metres at 0.79 percent copper. Manto-type mineralisation at the target's southern end also averages 1.45 percent copper over 18 metres.
- Huancune: A 1.5-kilometre long anomaly coincident with surface mineralisation. Multiple channel samples ranging from less than 0.5 percent copper up to 3.95 percent copper.
Charaque (Copper)
The Charaque Copper Project is located roughly 30 kilometres northeast of Firetail's Picha project, consisting of eight claims covering roughly 60 square kilometres. The region around the project is an active exploration area where multiple leading mining companies maintain significant landholdings, including Barrick Gold, Teck Resources (TSE:TECK.B) and Fresnillo (LON:FRES).
Charaque was acquired via a farm-in agreement between Firetail and Barrick Gold which entitles the latter to earn up to a 70 percent interest in the project.
Yalgoo & Dalgaranga (Lithium)
Firetail's Yalgoo and Dalgaranga lithium projects collectively span more than 1,750 square kilometres in Western Australia's highly prospective Murchison region. Located close to Geraldton Port and with easy access to all necessary infrastructure, the two projects host known lithium-caesium-tantalum (LCT) pegmatites with a strong rubidium association. Firetail recently completed a small maiden drilling program in the Johnson Well area of Yalgoo, itself the site of a historic lepidolite mine.
Rock chip sampling of surrounding areas is ongoing along with a detailed analysis of lithium prospectivity. Results and a project update are expected within four to six weeks.
Project Highlights
- Yalgoo Exploration Results: Thus far, exploration at Yalgoo has returned highly promising results, including:
- A 25-kilometre "Goldilocks Zone" at Yalgoo confirmed to host LCT pegmatites with historic results of up to 3.75 percent lithium oxide.
- Rock chip assay results of up to 0.54 percent lithium oxide and under 1 percent rubidium.
- High-grade rubidium, including 10 metres at 0.44 percent rubidium from 10 metres.
- Dalgaranga Exploration Results: Firetail has completed detailed geological mapping in the project's north, returning anomalous lithium, rubidium, caesium and tantalum values indicative of LCT pegmatites. The company plans to undertake further mapping in the area.
- Dalgaranga's Strong Prospectivity: Dalgaranga counts several advanced critical minerals projects amongst its neighbours which together confirm its prospectivity:
- King Tamba (ASX:KTA): Maiden mineral resource estimate (MRE) of 5 Mt at 0.14 percent rubidium oxide with a lithium oxide credit. Open mineralisation in all directions with a planned infill drill program to expand MRE.
- Aldoro Resources Limited (ASX:ARN): Aldoro's Niobe Tantalum-Lithium project has delivered a maiden inferred JORC MRE of 4.6 Mt at 0.17 percent rubidium oxide and 0.07 percent lithium oxide. Potential to upgrade is present thanks to mineralisation at shallow depth.
- Farm-in Agreement on Southern Yalgoo Tenement: Completion of the farm-in agreement completed with SensOre (ASX:S3N), through its joint-venture subisidiary Exploration Ventures AI Pty (EXAI) in partnership with German resource investment group Deutsche Rohstoff AG, on tenement E59/E2252, a part of the Firetail Yalgoo Lithium Project. As per the agreement, EXAI is to earn up to 80 percent of lithium rights on E59/E2252 by spending $3.5 million in two stages. Additional considerations of up to $600,000 will be fulfilled upon the delivery of maiden mineral resource estimate (MRE) and pre-feasibility study (PFS). SensOre will further provide Firetail access to its proprietary AI technology across the Yalgoo and Dalgaranga Lithium Projects. The two companies will work closely together to identify and confirm Lithium exploration targets in the region.
Mt. Slopeaway (Nickel)
Situated in Central Queensland, Firetail's Mt. Slopeaway Nickel Project contains an existing JORC 2012-compliant inferred mineral resource of 4 MT at 1 percent nickel, 0.2 percent cobalt and 1 percent manganese. Having recently been awarded project status, Firetail plans to conduct environmental and heritage surveys. Planning of an onsite drilling program is also underway.
Project Highlights
- Current Progress: In addition to drilling, heritage and environmental surveys, highlights of Firetail's work at Mt. Slopeaway include:
- Development of a geological model indicative of a manganese-cobalt-nickel layer at the base of a limonite section.
- Finalisation of a project land access agreement and completion of site earthworks.
- Phase 1 reverse circulation (RC) drilling with results exceeding historical nickel and cobalt assay data.
- A planned Phase 2 RC and diamond drilling program to upgrade the project's current resource classification.
- Extensional drilling to potentially expand the project's current inferred resource.
- Drilling Results: A drilling program completed in Q4 2022 returned up to 51 metres of thick laterite nickel-cobalt mineralisation.
Paterson (Copper)
Firetail's Paterson Copper Project spans five tenements across roughly 1,000 square kilometres in Western Australia. Heritage agreements for the project are in place and desktop studies are currently progressing, with multiple prospective target areas identified for drilling.
Project Highlights
- Shallow Intercepts: Paterson displays the shallowest known historical gold/copper intercepts in the region, with up to 6.5 percent copper, 0.99 g/t gold and copper, 0.99 g/t gold and 1,330 parts per million (ppm) molybdenum across an approximately 50-metre wide magnetite alteration zone.
- Drilling Targets: Paterson has identified the following potential targets for drilling at Paterson:
- 87WDRC2: 17 metres at 1.6 percent copper and 317 ppm molybdenum including 9 metres at 2.6 percent copper and 456 ppm molybdenum from 84 metres.
- 87WDRC6: 9 metres at 2 percent copper and 272 ppm molybdenum including 5 metres at 3.1 percent copper and 430 ppm molybdenum from 84 metres.
- 87WDRC8: 11 metres at 1.5 percent copper and 181 ppm molybdenum including 7 metres at 2.1 percent copper and 250 ppm molybdenum from 83 metres.
- 87WDRC14: 13 metres at 1.1 percent copper including 6 metres at 2 percent copper from 107 metres.
Management Team
Brett Grosvenor — Executive Chair
Brett Grosvenor is a seasoned executive with over 25 years of experience in the mining and power industry. He holds a dual tertiary qualification in engineering and a Master in Business. Prior to his current position, Grosvenor was the director of development at Primero Group, focused on the development of projects from an initial concept through to contract delivery and operation.
Grosvenor is currently a director of ASX-listed Perpetual Resources and Firebird Metals. He is a member of the project steering group for Patriot Battery Metals and also the Australian Industry Consultation Group for Battery and Critical Minerals.
Simon Lawson — Non-executive Director
Simon Lawson is a professional geoscientist with more than 16 years operational experience spanning multiple commodities and jurisdictions, and was a founding member of Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST).
He holds a Master of Science in geology from Auckland University and has more than 15 years of exploration, production and management experience in gold and base metals. He is currently the managing director of Spartan Resources (ASX:SPR) formerly Gascoyne Resources (ASX:GCY).
Cai Kecheng — Non-executive Director
Cai Kecheng is a representative of Hong Kong Jayson Mining Co. (Jayson), a substantial shareholder of Firetail. Kecheng has over eighteen years of experience in financial investment and corporate strategy. He is currently the associate president and head of investment & strategy for Jayson. Prior to that, he served as managing director at a number of private equity firms in Shanghai
George Bauk — Non-executive Director
George Bauk is an experienced director with over 17 years as a listed company director and 30 years within the resources industry including global operational and corporate roles.
He has experience managing everything from exploration to production in Australia and internationally, with expertise across a variety of commodities including rare earths, lithium, graphite, gold, uranium and copper. During his time as managing director of Northern Minerals, he led his team from a greenfields heavy rare earth explorer to one of the few global producers of high-value dysprosium outside of China.
Alongside his position as director at Firetail, he is also an executive chairman of ASX-listed Valor Resources (ASX:VAL) and Lithium Australia (ASX:LIT), as well as an executive director of PVW Resources (ASX:PVW).
Robin Wilson — Technical Director
Robin Wilson has held senior exploration positions in several exploration and mining companies, including Valor Resources, Polaris Metals, Tanganyika Gold, Troy Resources, CRA Exploration and Northern Minerals. He has also spent five years working in oil and gas exploration for Woodside Energy.
During nearly 30 years of involvement in mineral exploration, Wilson has worked on gold, nickel, REE, uranium, copper, lithium and phosphate projects throughout Australia, Africa, South America and North America and was involved in the initial discovery and outlining of several gold deposits in Australia. Between 2006 and 2021 he led the Northern Minerals exploration team that discovered the Browns Range REE deposits that have advanced through development to production of HRE carbonate.
Frank Bierlein — Technical Consultant
Dr. Frank Bierlein is a geologist with 30 years of experience as a consultant, researcher, lecturer and industry professional. He served on the Firetail board of directors from the time of its listing on ASX in April 2022 until July 2023. He remains a technical consultant to Firetail, in particular for ongoing technical work on the Mt Slopeaway Project.
Bierlein has held exploration and generative geology management positions with QMSD Mining, Qatar Mining, Afmeco Australia and Areva NC and consulted for, among others, Newmont Gold, Resolute Mining, Goldfields International, Freeport McMoRan and the International Atomic Energy Agency.
He is currently a Non-executive director of Blackstone Minerals, Impact Minerals and Variscan Mines.
Leon Bagas — Senior Exploration Geologist
Leon Bagas is an exploration geologist with forty years of industry experience. He has held senior exploration roles with multiple Australian companies and senior research positions for the University of Western Australia.
Bagas is highly experienced in developing mineralisation models using geochemistry and geochronology. Combined with his proficiency in the field, this makes Bagas an excellent candidate to assist in the development of the exploration and drilling programs at Firetail's Paterson Orogen and Yalgoon-Dalgaranga project areas.
Phillip Mackenzie — Senior Exploration Geologist
Phillip Mackenzie has worked in Central Queensland over several decades, exploring the Marlborough and Yeppoon terrain to assess and explore for nickel, cobalt, chromite, magnesite and gold related to the Princhester Serpentinite. His work included management of projects and teams to perform activities ranging from regional sampling to resource drilling. As a result of his work, several hundred drill holes targeting lateritic nickel and cobalt were assessed and an indicated resource determined for a mining lease.
When Will Copper Go Up? (Updated 2024)
“Most analysts are modeling growing deficits in the copper market balance by 2027-2028, with a near-term forecast (2024-2026) hinting at surpluses until then; however, recent developments suggest a shift toward deficits by late 2024 due to production shortfalls by large producers," Joe Mazumdar of Exploration Insights said via email.
These concerns have driven copper to highs several times in recent years. A copper supply/demand imbalance sparked a record-breaking rally in 2021, pushing prices to a then all-time high of US$10,724.50 per metric ton (MT) — a record that the metal broke in March 2022, when it hit US$10,730.
20 year copper price chart.
Chart via Federal Reserve Economic Data.
Copper had pulled back to about US$8,000 by mid-August 2022 on growing fears of a global recession. In early 2023, prices mounted a campaign to breach the US$9,300 level, once again giving market watchers a reason to believe highs for the metal would soon to be retested. However, that reason soon faded as rising interest rates dampened the outlook for copper-dependent industries globally. China's ongoing real estate crisis also hit copper demand hard in 2023.
With the demand picture unclear, copper couldn't hold above the US$9,000 level. As a result, it went on a slide, reaching US$7,910 as of early October 2023. Copper managed to close the year close to the US$8,500 mark.
This trajectory continued into the first quarter of 2024, keeping copper trading in a range of US$8,000 to US$8,500. Recent production curbs out of top Chinese copper smelters are also helping to support prices.
The closure of First Quantum Minerals' (TSX:FM,OTC Pink:FQVLF) Cobre Panama copper mine last year and Anglo American (LSE:AAL,OTCQX:AAUKF) revised 2024 copper production target were also significant factors behind copper's price momentum.
It began climbing in earnest in Q2 on building anticipation that the Federal Reserve may soon launch its rate cut cycle alongside a worsening supply side picture. On May 20, 2024, the price of copper reached its highest recorded price of US$5.20 per pound, or US$11,464 per MT.
However, the price of the base metal moved back under US$10,000 by the end of the month.
Is the optimism of an impending bull market for the red metal still warranted? Let’s look at the current supply and demand factors that could influence copper prices to the upside.
Green energy in driver’s seat for copper demand
Copper’s many useful properties have translated into demand from diverse industries. Construction and electronics have long been the main drivers for copper demand, and with a conductivity rating that's second only to silver, it’s no wonder copper is also an ideal metal for use in energy storage, electric vehicles (EVs) and EV charging infrastructure.
Energy storage may prove to be one of the most copper-intensive markets in the 21st century. According to a 2022 report on the future of copper by S&P Global Market Intelligence, “The rapid, large-scale deployment of these technologies globally, EV fleets particularly, will generate a huge surge in copper demand.”
The firm is projecting that global refined copper demand will nearly double from 25 million MT in 2021 to about 49 million MT in 2035. Energy transition technologies are expected to account for nearly half of that demand growth. “The world has never produced anywhere close to this much copper in such a short time frame,” the firm notes in its report.
China is the world's largest consumer of the metal, and unsurprisingly its zero-COVID policy wreaked havoc on its economy and demand for copper. When China ended that policy in early 2023, it contributed to the boost seen in copper prices at the time. However, repercussions continue to be seen in the country, particularly in its real estate market.
China's property sector turmoil is in its third year, with housing starts down by more than 60 percent compared to pre-pandemic levels, as per the International Monetary Fund. However, analysts are starting to call for a bottom as China's aggressive efforts to energize the sector slowly right the ship — property investment in China fell by just 9 percent year-on-year in the first two months of 2024, compared with a 24 percent fall in December 2023, reported Reuters.
Property sector aside, copper demand out of China is likely to get a boost from the Chinese government's commitment to investing in its electrical infrastructure and green energy economy.
This push can be seen in ongoing structural reforms intended to secure the nation's place as a global economic powerhouse — these include the Made in China 2025 and China Standards 2035 initiatives. A part of the country's 14th five year plan, these policies target sectors that are heavily reliant on copper, such as 5G networks, robotics, electrical equipment, EVs, industrial internet, intercity transportation and rail systems, ultra-high-voltage power transmission and EV charging stations.
While the next five-year plan is still in the works, there are indications that measures to achieve carbon neutrality and increase renewable energy consumption are still very much a part of China's long-term economic objectives.
On the EV side, S&P Global projects that sales in China will reach 11.5 million units in 2024, up 22 percent from 2023. The country's photovoltaic market is also expected to remain strong in 2024.
The EV market is a growing global source of demand for copper outside China as well. As the Copper Alliance has noted, EVs can use three to four times as much copper as an internal combustion engine passenger car.
Automakers are making large investments in growing their EV production capacity, with some even looking to secure copper supply. Last year, McEwen Copper, a subsidiary of McEwen Mining (TSX:MUX,NYSE:MUX), received a US$155 million investment from Stellantis (NYSE:STLA), the fourth largest carmaker in the world.
Watch the full interview with Rob McEwen and Michael Meding above.
In a recent interview, Rob McEwen and Michael Meding discussed McEwen Copper's plans to release a feasibility study for the company's Argentina-based Los Azules copper project by the first quarter of 2025.
Companies struggling to keep copper supply coming
Of course, demand is just one side of the story for copper prices. For more than a decade, the world’s largest copper mines have struggled with steadily declining copper grades and a lack of new copper discoveries.
The alarm bells have been ringing for a few years now. In a mid-2020 report, S&P Global Market Intelligence metals and mining analyst Kevin Murphy painted a “dismal” picture for copper mine supply. He stated that out of the 224 copper deposits discovered between 1990 and 2019, a mere 16 were discovered in the last decade. These circumstances have led to questions about whether peak copper has arrived.
The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated challenges in the global copper supply chain as both mining and refining activities in several top copper-producing countries were slowed or halted altogether. The economic uncertainty also led miners to delay further investments in copper exploration and development — a complicating factor given that it can take more than 15 years to develop a newly discovered deposit into a producing mine.
Speaking at the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) convention in March 2024, Murphy discussed another factor influencing new copper supply coming to market: inflation. He presented data highlighting how inflation has hamstrung the mining sector. In 2023, exploration budgets for all metals totaled US$12.8 billion, down 3 percent over the previous year.
Murphy also suggested that current economic trends are not only preventing projects from entering the pipeline, but also sandbagging current projects.
“Drilling has been in a downtrend as well, and it’s a bit worse than budgets in 2023, which indicates some inflation has hit the mark," he stated. "It’s a hard industry. The standard is about 3 percent, (and) at the moment we’re thinking that budgets are probably down 5 percent (in 2024)."
Supply instability out of the world’s largest copper-producing countries, Chile and Peru, has also weighed heavily on the market in the past few years. Together, they represent a combined 40 percent of global output.
In Chile, some of the world’s biggest copper miners, including BHP (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) and Anglo American (LSE:AAL,OTCQX:AAUKF), are facing royalty rate increases due to a tax reform bill. The country is also dealing with water woes as drought intensifies, causing tension for miners that rely on water to pump copper to the surface, and for the smelting and concentration processes.
To the north, in Peru, copper miners have been nervous about the sociopolitical unrest following the impeachment and jailing of former President Pedro Castillo in December 2022, including protests against the mining industry.
However, mining investment is still alive and well in Peru, especially when it comes to copper, and current President Dina Boluarte supports the industry. According to EY, "Of the new mining investments, US$38.5 billion is expected to be allocated to mining projects in Peru, with copper projects accounting for 72 (percent) of the total."
The supply side of the copper market is also being impacted by production challenges out of some of the world’s major producers. Facing sociopolitical pressure, First Quantum Minerals had to shut down its Cobre Panama mine in late 2023; it accounted for about 350,000 MT of annual global copper production.
Furthermore, Anglo American revised down its 2024 copper production target to a range of 730,000 to 790,000 MT of copper compared to the previous guidance of 1 million MT. This was due in large part to production shortfalls at its Los Bronces copper mine, which is expected to continue into 2025.
Bull market for copper or bust?
So when will copper go up? Together, strong demand and tight supply can create the right market environment for higher prices.
Copper’s strong rally in recent years has encouraged the idea that even higher copper prices are ahead, which could be a golden opportunity for junior copper companies in the long-term. At a Vancouver Resource Investment Conference copper panel, one speaker explained why this segment of the metals market has piqued his interest.
“I’m a copper bull, it’s a long-term performing asset, but 'quality' is what you have to add to the phrase, and I think copper is essential. As we all see the population growth, modernization, electrification, it’s going to be a key metal going forward,” said panelist Ivan Bebek, chairman of Torq Resources (TSXV:TORQ,OTCQX:TRBMF).
"Copper is the new oil," declared Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle, during his mid-May Bloomberg TV interview. The analyst is pointing to the explosion of AI technology, the energy transition and military spending as top drivers of copper demand that could push prices for the red metal up to US$15,000 per MT in the near future.
The Bank of America sees potential for copper prices to reach US$12,000 per MT for 2026. As demand is set to increase, the bank's analysts have said the severe lack of new copper projects is "finally starting to bite."
For its part, Citigroup (NYSE:C) is also projecting a copper price of US$12,000 by 2026 in its base-case scenario on higher demand for the red metal from the green energy revolution. The firm's analysts do see a more bullish case for US$15,000 copper over the next two to three years in the event of a strong economic recovery.
This is an updated version of an article first published by the Investing News Network in 2021.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Boosting North America's Copper Supply
Understanding these measures, as well as copper's supply and demand dynamic, is essential for anyone seeking to invest in this important metal.
Unstable, unsustainable supply chains
Copper prices rallied significantly over the past year, increasing from US$3.75 per pound in December 2023 to US$5.15 per pound around the beginning of May 2024.
What's more, copper prices on May 20 reached a record high of US$5.20 per pound, effectively freezing out Chinese spot trading for a day before closing at US$5.11. Analyst firm Morningstar has even referred to copper as the new oil.
A complex mixture of supply and demand issues drive the copper price today. There are several critical factors contributing to the dynamic price changes:
- Chinese economic recovery
- Supply chain disruptions (mine closures, poor production, labor issues)
- Inadequate production growth
- Rising demand from electric vehicles and green energy
- Falling demand from housing construction
While these factors can force short-term fluctuations in the copper price, most analysts agree that the long-term trend appears to be upwards.
In a May 23 Financial Times article, veteran hedge fund manager and commodities trader Pierre Arnurand said that what we've witnessed this year is only the beginning. He predicts copper prices could increase by as much as 288 percent over the next few years. This demand, says Arnurand, will be driven both by traditional applications, such as power infrastructure, and emerging ones, such as electric vehicles, wind farms, solar panels and the defense sector.
The digital economy will also play an incredibly important role in driving copper demand, particularly artificial intelligence.
A single server rack in an AI data center, for instance, will draw up to 60 kilowatts of power. In contrast, a traditional data center rack usually tops out at roughly 15 kilowatts. Powering and maintaining these facilities will require a massive volume of copper, increasing demand by up to 1.5 percent in the US alone.
Electric vehicles are even more copper hungry, with the International Energy Forum projecting that full electrification will require that copper production increase by as much as 55 percent.
According to the Energy Information Administration, sources of renewable energy like wind and solar use between 2.5 and seven times more copper per unit of power — copper demand from these two sources alone is projected to reach 600,000 MT by 2040.
Giant bank BMO Capital Markets projects copper demand could reach 40.4 million metric tons per year by 2030, with a compound annual growth of 3 percent.
In addition to falling short of projected demand, the current copper supply is heavily impacted by permitting issues, political risks, environmental impacts and development challenges, effectively slowing the pace at which new mines come online. These issues are also heavily impacting supply chains. Moreover, the increasing instability of supply from South America is already causing a shortage, one which analysts predict could last until at least 2030.
"In early 2024, data from underperforming copper mines from 2023 and the Panamanian government shutdown of the Cobre Panama Mine brought the ongoing copper supply issue front and center," explains Matthew Badiali, CEO of Quetzal Copper (TSXV:Q). "And while we saw a rapid rise in the copper price, it was hardly unprecedented in the commodity space. Historical context shows that copper could run much higher."
Boosting domestic copper production
Copper is part of both the Canadian federal government's C$4 billion Critical Minerals Strategy and the Inflation Reduction Act in the US. These strategies from both governments include multiple tax incentives for sustainability, mining and exploration. In Canada, for instance, provincial mining taxes and royalties related to mineral resource income are fully deductible on federal income tax.
The Canadian government also provides favorable capital cost allowances, allows exploration expenses to be claimed at a 100 percent deduction, and allows development expenses to be deducted at 30 percent. The government also offers a C$1.5 billion critical minerals infrastructure fund and investment tax credits of 30 percent for exploration activities.
In addition to these tax benefits, Canada offers the Mineral Exploration Tax Credit (METC), a 15 percent non-refundable tax credit that can be applied by investors against tax they would otherwise pay for a year and may be carried back three years and carried forward 20. In 2024, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland announced that the current METC, set to expire on March 31, 2024, will instead be extended through 2025.
In the US, the Inflation Reduction Act provides a US$7,500 per vehicle consumer tax credit when purchasing electric vehicles from select suppliers. By 2026, 80 percent of all EV components will need to be extracted and processed either in the US or with one of the country's free trade partners. If at least half of a battery's components are manufactured or assembled in North America, there is also an additional US$3,750 tax credit.
Most notably, the legislation extends additional loan guarantees of up to US$40 billion to support critical minerals projects.
Together, these incentives are being leveraged by junior mining companies to fuel a new wave of exploration and development in highly prospective regions, such as BC and the Yukon. Already, there are many different copper projects at varying stages of development across North America.
Below, we've listed a few of the more promising investment possibilities.
Princeton
Located immediately north of the Copper Mountain mine, Quetzal Copper’s 11,500 hectare Princeton copper property houses multiple promising anomalies, including three drill-ready targets. Quetzal identified Bud South and Knob Hill as particularly high-priority targets — both have standout geophysical anomalies with supporting trenching and drilling data. Drilling is set to commence in 2024.
Quetzal has the option to earn 80 percent interest in the Princeton project, as well as the option to earn a 100 percent interest in the Big Kidd and DOT properties near Merritt, BC.
Black Butte
Notable for being one of the world's highest-grade undeveloped copper projects, Black Butte is 87 percent owned by Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) subsidiary Sandfire Resources America (TSXV:SFR,OTCQB:SRAFF). Sandfire intends to combine best-practice technology and modern mining techniques to develop Black Butte into an underground mine that has a minimal environmental impact and a low surface footprint. In February 2024, Sandfire scored a major win on the project when the Montana Supreme Court reversed a 2022 decision to invalidate its mining permit.
Murray Brook West
Owned and operated by Canadian Copper (CSE:CCI), Murray Brook West is an underexplored project located adjacent to the Murray Brook deposit. Due to the fact that it is situated between the Caribou and Restigouche mines, the property is highly prospective for copper. Future work at the property will involve comprehensive exploration and drill target development, including prospecting activities geared toward identifying potential mineralization.
Investor takeaway
Copper is arguably one of the most critical minerals to both electrification and the clean energy transition. Unfortunately, current copper supply is not keeping pace with demand. In order to change that, governments are working to incentivize further exploration and development with the goal of developing a stable domestic supply.
In North America, this represents a considerable investment opportunity — anyone interested in adding copper properties to their portfolio would do well to pay attention.
This INNSpired article is sponsored by Quetzal Copper (TSXV:Q). This INNSpired article provides information which was sourced by the Investing News Network (INN) and approved by Quetzal Copperin order to help investors learn more about the company. Quetzal Copperis a client of INN. The company’s campaign fees pay for INN to create and update this INNSpired article.
This INNSpired article was written according to INN editorial standards to educate investors.
INN does not provide investment advice and the information on this profile should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. INN does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company profiled.
The information contained here is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of securities. Readers should conduct their own research for all information publicly available concerning the company. Prior to making any investment decision, it is recommended that readers consult directly with Quetzal Copper and seek advice from a qualified investment advisor.
Potential Extension to 8 Mile Dam Gold Deposit Outlined by IP Survey at Gidji JV
- IP survey outlines potential extensions to 313koz 8 Mile Dam gold deposit
- Significant aircore EOH gold results above IP anomalies offset by faulting
- Drill testing at 8-Mile planned after maiden Bangemall Ni-Cu-Co-PGE drilling campaign
A recently completed IP survey at the 8-MileTarget (Figure 1) has extended the chargeability anomaly offset from the northern end of the 8 Mile Dam gold deposit and which underlies multiple significant aircore end of hole (EOH) gold results (Figure 2).
Miramar’s Executive Chairman, Mr Allan Kelly, said the new IP anomaly was shallower than expected.
“It appears the 8 Mile Dam deposit could continue for some distance to the north but has been offset by faulting, including at the tenement boundary,” he said.
“The fact that we have multiple aircore holes ending in elevated gold over the IP anomalies strengthens this theory,” he said.
“It’s also pleasing to see that the northern part of the IP anomaly is shallower than expected,” he added. “We look forward to drill testing this high priority target later in the year,” he said.
Figure 1. Collecting IP data at Miramar’s 8-Mile target.
Figure 2. IP anomalies and aircore EOH gold results in relation to the 8 Mile Dam gold deposit.
Background
According to publicly available data, the 8 Mile Dam gold deposit (7Mt @ 1.4g/t Au for 313,977oz1) comprises shallow supergene and deeper primary gold mineralisation hosted in:
- Quartz-carbonate-sulphide veins within hanging wall sediments; and
- A hydrothermally altered mafic unit cut by quartz veins with sphalerite, chalcopyrite and visible gold
Figure 3 shows a cross section through the deposit, approximately 60m south of the tenement boundary.
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This article includes content from Miramar Resources Limited, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
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