Strong Execution and Improved Market Conditions Set up 2021 and Beyond

All amounts are in US dollars except as otherwise noted

Nutrien Ltd. (TSX and NYSE: NTR) announced today its fourth quarter and full year 2020 results, with fourth-quarter net earnings of $316 million ($0.55 diluted earnings per share). Fourth-quarter adjusted net earnings ¹ were $0.24 per share and adjusted EBITDA ¹ was $768 million.

"Nutrien reported excellent results across our entire business. Our Retail Ag Solutions business delivered a record fourth quarter and we also reported higher potash and nitrogen sales volumes and lower production costs. Agriculture fundamentals began to improve in late 2020 and we are starting to see the benefit to our business from this cyclical recovery," commented Chuck Magro, Nutrien's President and CEO.

"We are committed to shareholder returns and again raised our dividend and announced another share buyback program, which emphasizes the strength of Nutrien, notwithstanding a global pandemic. We continually look for ways to improve our business portfolio, including the MOPCO divestment for over half-a-billion dollars, with the intention to reallocate the capital to higher return opportunities to drive shareholder value," added Mr. Magro.

Highlights:

• Nutrien announced a dividend increase and new share buyback program. The Board of Directors approved an increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.46 per share, our third dividend increase in three years with an annualized payout at $1.84 per share. Nutrien's Board of Directors also approved the purchase of up to five percent of Nutrien's outstanding common shares over a one-year period through a normal course issuer bid (NCIB). The NCIB is subject to acceptance by the Toronto Stock Exchange.
• Nutrien generated $1.8 billion in free cash flow ¹ in 2020, and $2.4 billion including the improvement to our non-cash operating working capital ¹ .
• Retail Ag Solutions delivered a 29 percent increase in adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019, due to exceptional organic growth and strong fall fertilizer applications in North America. Retail generated 16 percent higher adjusted EBITDA in 2020 compared to 2019 due to double digit organic growth and contributions from acquisitions. 2020 Retail adjusted EBITDA to sales was 9.7 percent on a consolidated basis and 10.6 percent in the US, higher by 0.4 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively, compared to 2019.
  Retail Ag Solutions further improved results through supply chain and efficiency efforts including improving the cash operating coverage ratio and lowering Retail adjusted average working capital ¹ by nearly $900 million compared to 2019. Adjusted EBITDA per US selling location ¹ reached $1.08 million and digital platform sales exceeded $1.2 billion in 2020, more than double our goal of $500 million and over four times 2019 levels.
• Potash adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter increased 48 percent compared to the same period in 2019, due to much stronger domestic and offshore sales volumes. 2020 Potash adjusted EBITDA was 25 percent lower than in 2019 due to lower net realized selling prices. Potash sales volumes in 2020 were the second highest on record and Nutrien is fully committed on domestic and offshore sales volumes into April of 2021, despite not shipping volumes to China and India until new sales contracts are negotiated. Potash cash cost of product manufactured ¹ was $59 per tonne in 2020, down $4 per tonne from 2019.
• Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA increased 3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 primarily due to higher sales volumes. Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA decreased 13 percent in 2020 as higher sales volumes and lower cost of goods sold per tonne were more than offset by lower net realized selling prices. Sales volumes increased by nearly 700,000 tonnes in 2020 driven by higher production resulting from debottlenecking projects and strong operating rates.
• Nutrien closed the sale of its stake in Misr Fertilizers Production Company S.A.E. ("MOPCO") which includes settlement of related arbitration claims. Total net proceeds received from the transaction in 2020 were $540 million. The investment had contributed approximately $15 million to $20 million to Nutrien's adjusted EBITDA annually, and carried a book value of approximately $300 million. The cash received is expected to be redeployed to generate higher returns for shareholders.
• Nutrien announced the launch of the agricultural industry's most comprehensive carbon program, providing end-to-end support for growers to drive improved sustainability, boost yields and provide the opportunity to monetize improved carbon performance at the farm level through carbon credits.
• Nutrien's 2021 adjusted net earnings per share ¹ and adjusted EBITDA ¹ guidance is $2.05 to $2.75 per share and $4.0 billion to $4.5 billion, respectively.

1 This financial measure including related guidance, if applicable, is a non-IFRS financial measure. See the "Non-IFRS Financial Measures" section for further information.

Market Outlook

Agriculture and Retail

• Key crop prices continue to be supported by very tight global supply and demand fundamentals, which have increased farm level profitability and boosted grower sentiment. Global crop demand is strong and is aided by record Chinese grain and oilseed imports.
• US major crop planted acreage is expected to increase by approximately 10 million acres in 2021. This increase is expected to lead to much higher crop input demand, particularly for crop nutrients, as prospective fertilizer costs as a proportion of crop revenue are at decade-low levels.
• Record Brazilian crop margins led to higher soybean planting in 2020 and is expected to result in higher year-over-year planted area for Safrinha corn in 2021. We expect this will support strong Brazilian crop input demand in 2021.

Crop Nutrient Markets

• Global potash demand surpassed expectations in late 2020 and we now estimate world potash shipments reached record levels at approximately 68 million tonnes. Potash prices also improved considerably in late 2020, with US Midwest prices up nearly $100 per tonne at the end of 2020 compared to mid-year levels. This demand momentum continues in 2021 supported by favorable crop economics, high potash affordability and limited inventory build in major markets. As a result, we forecast 2021 global potash shipments will be 68 to 70 million tonnes.
• India and China settled a 2021 potash agreement with one supplier, the only major potash supply agreements to date. Canpotex and other major suppliers individually commented that the agreement did not reflect strengthening market conditions.
• North American fall potash applications were very strong in 2020 and channel inventories are low. Spring potash demand continues to be strong and Nutrien has been fully committed on domestic sales into the second quarter of 2021 since early December 2020. Globally, potash inventory levels continue to decrease while crop prices and grower profitability have increased. As a result, Canpotex is fully committed into the second quarter of 2021 and has not placed or allocated any volumes to China nor India since the previous supply contracts expired.
• A rally in global energy prices in early 2021 steepened the nitrogen cost curve, which in addition to strong agricultural and recovering industrial demand, led to higher nitrogen prices. Global ammonia prices are further supported by tightening supply, while urea prices are higher due to solid demand in nearly all key markets. We expect that Chinese urea exports in 2021 will decline to 3 to 5 million tonnes from 5.5 million tonnes in 2020 due to strong domestic demand and higher coal feedstock prices.
• Global phosphate prices have continued to trend higher in early 2021, driven by tight supply and higher input costs.

Financial Outlook and Guidance

Based on market factors detailed above, we are issuing 2021 adjusted net earnings guidance of $2.05 to $2.75 per share and 2021 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $4.0 to $4.5 billion.

All guidance numbers, including those noted above and related sensitivities are outlined in the tables below.

Consolidated Results

Net earnings increased in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019 due to improved operating results, the gain associated with the MOPCO transaction and the impact of impairments in the fourth quarter of 2019. Net earnings in 2020 were lower than 2019 due to lower realized crop nutrient prices and the non-cash impairment of assets largely related to our Phosphate operations in the third quarter of 2020. Adjusted EBITDA increased in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019 due to strong Retail earnings growth and higher potash sales volumes. Adjusted EBITDA decreased in the full year 2020 compared to 2019 primarily due to lower crop nutrient prices that more than offset strong Retail organic growth, earnings contributions from acquisitions and greater operational efficiencies. The COVID-19 pandemic had limited impact on our results during the periods.

Segment Results

Our discussion of segment results set out on the following pages is a comparison of the results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2020 to the results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2019, respectively, unless otherwise noted. In the third quarter of 2020, we revised the measure with which we evaluate our segments from EBITDA to adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA provides a better indication of the segments performance as it excludes the impact of impairments and other costs that are centrally managed by our corporate function. We have presented adjusted EBITDA for the comparative periods.

Retail

• Adjusted EBITDA increased in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019 due to stronger sales and firm margins, with much higher gross margin for crop nutrients, crop protection products and services and other. Adjusted EBITDA in 2020 increased by nearly $200 million compared to 2019 from a combination of organic and acquisition-related growth.
  Selling expenses as a percent of sales decreased in the fourth quarter and were stable in 2020 compared to the same periods in 2019 due to ongoing efficiency initiatives and despite higher depreciation and amortization.
  
• Crop nutrients sales were higher in the fourth quarter and full year of 2020 relative to the same periods in 2019 due to 27 percent and 15 percent higher sales volumes respectively, that more than offset the impact of lower selling prices per tonne. Fourth quarter sales increased due to strong fall applications in the US and our expansion in South America. Gross margin percentage was stable in the fourth quarter of 2020 but increased for the full year of 2020 due to a larger proportion of higher-margin proprietary product sales in the year.
• Crop protection products sales in the fourth quarter and full year 2020 were higher compared to the same periods in 2019 due to strong market share growth in all key regions. Gross margin percentage decreased in the fourth quarter due to regional mix, which was partially offset by stronger US proprietary product results. US gross margin percentage increased nearly 3 percentage points in the fourth quarter of 2020 relative to the same period in 2019. Gross margin percentage was similar year-over-year, decreasing only 0.3 percentage points compared to 2019. US gross margin percentage was 25 percent, higher by one percentage point over 2019.
• Seed sales in the fourth quarter and full year 2020 increased relative to the same periods last year due to contributions from the Tec Agro Group and Agrosema Comercial Agricola Ltda. acquisitions in Brazil and higher sales in Australia. Gross margin percentage decreased in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019 due to regional mix and the timing of US supplier and customer programs. Gross margin percentage in the full year 2020 was consistent with the prior year, as a one percentage point gain in the US was offset by the lower rates in Australia caused by seed mix changes.
• Merchandise sales increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2020 due to strong demand growth, primarily in Australia and the US. Gross margin percentage decreased in both periods relative to 2019 due to a higher mix of lower-margin product sales in Australia.
• Nutrien Financial is reported for the first full year of operations for the Nutrien Financial business. Revenue is primarily earned through interest and service fees that are charged to our Retail branches or directly to customers.
• Services and other sales were lower in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the same quarter in 2019 due to the timing of livestock related sales in Australia, which more than offset significantly higher application services in North and South America. Gross margin and gross margin percentage in the fourth quarter of 2020 were up significantly year-over-year primarily due to strong demand for US application services. Sales and gross margin were significantly higher in 2020 than in 2019 due to strong growth in demand for services in Australia and North America.

Potash

• Adjusted EBITDA increased in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the same quarter in 2019, due to higher domestic and offshore sales volumes and lower cost of goods sold per tonne, excluding the impact of depreciation and amortization. Adjusted EBITDA in 2020 decreased compared to 2019 as lower net realized selling prices more than offset positive impacts of significantly higher sales volumes and lower production costs and operating costs.
• Sales volumes in the fourth quarter and full year of 2020 increased relative to the same periods in 2019 due to strong domestic and offshore demand supported by improved global crop prices, increased planted acreage in the US and strong fall application in North America in anticipation of higher planting in 2021.
• Net realized selling price decreased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2020 due to lower year-over-year global benchmark prices.
• Cost of goods sold per tonne increased in the fourth quarter of 2020 due to higher depreciation and amortization related to production mix and the timing of maintenance projects relative to the fourth quarter of 2019. Excluding the impact of depreciation and amortization, cost of goods sold per tonne was lower both in the fourth quarter and full year of 2020 due to production efficiencies and higher production levels. These factors also lowered the potash cash cost of product manufactured in both periods.

Canpotex Sales by Market

Nitrogen

• Adjusted EBITDA increased in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019 due to significantly higher sales volumes that more than offset lower net realized selling prices. Adjusted EBITDA in the full year 2020 decreased relative to 2019 as lower net realized selling prices were only partially offset by higher sales volumes and lower cost of goods sold per tonne.
• Sales volumes increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2020 compared to the same periods in 2019 due to strong fertilizer sales in North America that more than offset lower global industrial demand. Total nitrogen sales in 2020 were the highest on record as a result of recent expansion projects and strong overall operating rates at our North American facilities.
• Net realized selling price of nitrogen was lower in the fourth quarter and full year 2020 than the same periods in 2019 due to lower global and North American benchmark prices. Fourth quarter 2020 sales commitments were mostly made in the previous quarter, prior to more recent increases in benchmark prices.
• Cost of goods sold per tonne decreased in the fourth quarter of 2020 as higher production volumes and lower depreciation and amortization per tonne more than offset the impact of higher natural gas costs. Cost of goods sold per tonne in 2020 decreased compared to 2019 due to lower natural gas costs and lower fixed costs, more than offsetting an increase in depreciation and amortization. Ammonia controllable cash cost of product manufactured per tonne declined in the fourth quarter due to increased production volumes, as the comparable period was impacted by turnaround activity at our Trinidad facility.

Natural Gas Prices in Cost of Production

• Gas prices in our cost of production increased in the fourth quarter of 2020 relative to the same period last year, tracking benchmark prices. Lower US gas prices and a lower realized derivative impact in 2020 more than offset higher Canadian gas prices compared to the same period in 2019.

Phosphate

• Adjusted EBITDA increased in the fourth quarter of 2020 due to higher net realized selling prices resulting from higher phosphate fertilizer prices compared to the same period in 2019 and a gain on the sale of land in the fourth quarter of 2020. Full year 2020 adjusted EBITDA increased primarily due to lower costs of goods sold per tonne compared to the same periods in 2019.
• Sales volumes were stable in the fourth quarter of 2020 relative to the same quarter in 2019 as higher sales into the North American fertilizer market were offset by lower phosphoric acid exports that carry a lower margin. Sales volumes in 2020 were lower than in 2019 due to the conversion of the Redwater phosphate facility to ammonium sulfate production in 2019 and a lower phosphate operating rate.
• Net realized selling price of phosphate fertilizer was higher in the fourth quarter of 2020 than in the fourth quarter of 2019 year following a recovery in global benchmark prices, which was partially offset by lower industrial and feed prices and was impacted by timing lags to benchmark prices. Net realized selling prices in 2020 were lower than in 2019 consistent with lower global benchmark prices.
• Cost of goods sold per tonne increased in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 due to higher raw material input costs and lower production volumes that offset lower depreciation and amortization following the non-cash impairment in the third quarter of 2020. Cost of goods sold per tonne was lower in 2020 relative to 2019 due to lower raw material costs, favorable non-cash inventory adjustments and a change in estimate related to an asset retirement obligation recorded in the second quarter of 2020.

Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements and other information included in this document, including within the "Financial Outlook and Guidance" section, constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looking statements") under applicable securities laws (such statements are often accompanied by words such as "anticipate", "forecast", "expect", "believe", "may", "will", "should", "estimate", "intend" or other similar words). All statements in this document, other than those relating to historical information or current conditions, are forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: Nutrien's business strategies, plans, prospects and opportunities; Nutrien's 2021 annual guidance, including expectations regarding our adjusted net earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA (consolidated and by segment); expectations regarding our growth and capital allocation intentions and strategies; capital spending expectations for 2021; expectations regarding performance of our operating segments in 2021, including our operating segment market outlooks and market conditions for 2021, and the anticipated supply and demand for our products and services, expected market and industry conditions with respect to crop nutrient application rates, planted acres, crop mix, prices and the impact of import and export volumes; expectations regarding repurchases of our common shares, including the timing thereof; the negotiation of sales contracts; the implementation of our carbon program and the benefits to Nutrien and growers therefrom; and acquisitions and divestitures. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements.

All of the forward-looking statements are qualified by the assumptions that are stated or inherent in such forward-looking statements, including the assumptions referred to below and elsewhere in this document. Although we believe that these assumptions are reasonable, having regard to our experience and our perception of historical trends, this list is not exhaustive of the factors that may affect any of the forward-looking statements and the reader should not place an undue reliance on these assumptions and such forward-looking statements. Current conditions, economic and otherwise, render assumptions, although reasonable when made, subject to greater uncertainty. The additional key assumptions that have been made include, among other things, assumptions with respect to our ability to successfully complete, integrate and realize the anticipated benefits of our already completed and future acquisitions and divestitures, and that we will be able to implement our standards, controls, procedures and policies in respect of any acquired businesses and to realize the expected synergies; that future business, regulatory and industry conditions will be within the parameters expected by us, including with respect to prices, margins, demand, supply, product availability, supplier agreements, availability and cost of labor and interest, exchange and effective tax rates; assumptions with respect to global economic conditions and the accuracy of our market outlook expectations for 2021 and in the future; our expectations regarding the impacts, direct and indirect, of the COVID-19 pandemic on our business, customers, business partners, employees, supply chain, other stakeholders and the overall economy; the adequacy of our cash generated from operations and our ability to access our credit facilities or capital markets for additional sources of financing; our ability to identify suitable candidates for acquisitions and divestitures and negotiate acceptable terms; our ability to maintain investment grade ratings and achieve our performance targets; our ability to successfully negotiate sales contracts; our ability to successfully implement new initiatives and programs; and our ability to redeploy capital to generate higher returns for shareholders.

Events or circumstances that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: general global economic, market and business conditions; failure to complete announced and future acquisitions or divestitures at all or on the expected terms and within the expected timeline; climate change and weather conditions, including impacts from regional flooding and/or drought conditions; crop planted acreage, yield and prices; the supply and demand and price levels for our products; governmental and regulatory requirements and actions by governmental authorities, including changes in government policy (including tariffs, trade restrictions and climate change initiatives), government ownership requirements, changes in environmental, tax and other laws or regulations and the interpretation thereof; political risks, including civil unrest, actions by armed groups or conflict and malicious acts including terrorism; the occurrence of a major environmental or safety incident; innovation and cybersecurity risks related to our systems, including our costs of addressing or mitigating such risks; counterparty and sovereign risk; delays in completion of turnarounds at our major facilities; interruptions of or constraints in availability of key inputs, including natural gas and sulfur; any significant impairment of the carrying amount of certain assets; risks related to reputational loss; certain complications that may arise in our mining processes; the ability to attract, engage and retain skilled employees and strikes or other forms of work stoppages; the COVID-19 pandemic and its resulting effects on economic conditions, restrictions imposed by public health authorities or governments, fiscal and monetary responses by governments and financial institutions and disruptions to global supply chains; and other risk factors detailed from time to time in Nutrien reports filed with the Canadian securities regulators and the Securities and Exchange Commission in the United States.

The purpose of our expected adjusted net earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA (consolidated and by segment) guidance ranges, as well as our adjusted earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA price and input costs sensitivities ranges, are to assist readers in understanding our expected and targeted financial results, and this information may not be appropriate for other purposes.

The forward-looking statements in this document are made as of the date hereof and Nutrien disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements in this document as a result of new information or future events, except as may be required under applicable Canadian securities legislation or applicable US federal securities laws.

Terms and Definitions

For the definitions of certain financial and non-financial terms used in this document, as well as a list of abbreviated company names and sources, see the "Terms and Definitions" section of our 2019 Annual Report dated February 19, 2020. All references to per share amounts pertain to diluted net earnings (loss) per share, "n/m" indicates information that is not meaningful and all financial amounts are stated in millions of US dollars, unless otherwise noted.

About Nutrien

Nutrien is the world's largest provider of crop inputs and services, playing a critical role in helping growers increase food production in a sustainable manner. We produce and distribute 27 million tonnes of potash, nitrogen and phosphate products world-wide. With this capability and our leading agriculture retail network, we are well positioned to supply the needs of our customers. We operate with a long-term view and are committed to working with our stakeholders as we address our economic, environmental and social priorities. The scale and diversity of our integrated portfolio provides a stable earnings base, multiple avenues for growth and the opportunity to return capital to shareholders.

Selected financial data for download can be found in our data tool at www.nutrien.com/investors/interactive-datatool

Such data is not incorporated by reference herein.

__________________________________________________________________________________

Nutrien will host a Conference Call on Thursday, February 18, 2021 at 10:00 am Eastern Time.

• In order to expedite access to our conference call, each participant will be required to pre-register for the event:
• Online: https://www.directeventreg.com/registration/event/5869929 .
• Via Phone: 1-888-869-1189 Conference ID 5869929.
• Once the registration is complete, a confirmation will be sent providing the dial in number and both the Direct Event Passcode and your unique Registrant ID to join this call. For security reasons, please do not share your information with anyone else.
• Live Audio Webcast: Visit https://www.nutrien.com/investors/events/2020-q4-earnings-conference-call

Appendix A - Selected Additional Financial Data