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ALMATY, Kazakhstan, January 29th.- A comprehensive new market analysis by Teniz Capital Investment Banking (KASE:TCIB) states the end of uranium as a mere cyclical commodity, warning that the sector has entered a "long-duration structural bull market" driven by insurmountable supply constraints.
The report, titled "The Uranium Renaissance", concludes that National Atomic Company Kazatomprom (LSE: KAP), which controls roughly 40% of global production, has become a systemically critical asset for which "no comparable global alternative exists over the next two decades".
The study projects that uranium prices have reached a "tipping point" that could lead to a threefold or even fourfold increase in value in the next few years.Â
Teniz Capital, an Almaty and Abu Dhabi-based investment bank that called for a bullish uranium market last year, stresses that this forecast is based on a critical disconnect between supply and demand.
The report, authored by John Ospanov, can be found here: https://tenizcap.kz/en/press-center/atomnaya-energetika-i-novyy-spros-na-uran
It maintains that while the world is working to triple its nuclear capacity by 2050 and AI data centers are driving explosive electricity consumption, mine production is structurally unable to keep pace.
"The supply deficit in the 2030s is already programmed. It cannot be eliminated by any political decisions or investments. The physical constraints of time are insurmountable," the report states. The text notes that developing new uranium deposits takes 10 to 15 years, indicating the current shortage is a time issue, not just a capital constraint.
In this scarcity scenario, Kazatomprom's position as one of the leading champions of the Kazakh industry is unique in the market. The company not only holds the industry's largest resource base but also controls more than 65% of global reserves suitable for In-Situ Recovery (ISR), the world's lowest-cost extraction method.
Teniz Capital also reminds investors that Cameco (TSX: CCO; NYSE: CCJ), a Canadian-listed market leader, holds some of its largest deposits in Kazakhstan, specifically through its 40% interest in the Inkai JV.
According to the bank's research team, an analysis of the global project pipeline shows that even the most promising developments in Canada or Africa cannot match Kazatomprom's scale.
The report notes that major alternative projects are either too small or too early in development to bridge the gap, asserting that "an alternative – in the literal sense – does not exist".
Teniz Capital emphasizes that, while the market continues to treat uranium as a cyclical asset, physical reality dictates otherwise: commercial stockpiles are depleted, and primary mine production no longer meets reactor demand.
In August 2024, Teniz Capital Investment Bank introduced Teniz Capital Brokerage as a standalone brokerage division. Teniz Capital has executed several dozen transactions over the past two years, including sovereign, quasi-sovereign, and supranational debt placements.
In particular, in 2025, the entity acted as a local bookrunner for the Eurobond issuances of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan, for National Managing Holding "Baiterek" JSC, including Vienna - and KASE-listed transactions, working alongside J.P. Morgan, Société Générale, Standard Chartered Bank, Alatau City Invest JSC, and Halyk Finance JSC, as well as on transactions for supranational institutions such as the Black Sea Trade and Development Bank.
In addition, the entity has participated in a wide range of large-scale transactions with financial institutions and quasi-sovereign corporates, including NC "Food Contract Corporation" JSC, Kazakhstan Sustainability Fund JSC, Home Credit Bank JSC, Bank RBK, and AIFN Retam JSC.
The entity has further provided funding solutions to large construction and development groups, including BI Group and Sensata Holding, as well as to companies across other sectors of the economy, such as Jet Group, Capital Leasing Group, Kisamos Shipping DMCC, and ABR Restaurants, demonstrating its ability to structure and execute complex financing transactions for both leading domestic developers and diversified corporate clients.
Established in 1997, Teniz Capital manages a team of over a 100 professionals, working from offices in Almaty, Astana's AIFC, and Abu Dhabi. It focuses on cross-border transactions and specializes in infrastructure, energy, and technology deals.
The shareholders of the AIX are AIFC, the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the Silk Road Fund, and NASDAQ, which developed the AIX trading platform. The exchange is regulated under a framework of principles based on English Law.
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT
This press release and the research report referenced herein are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities in the United States or any other jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would be unlawful.
This analysis does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an invitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. The information contained herein should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision. Investors should conduct their own independent research and consult with qualified financial, legal, and tax advisors before making any investment.
This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in the United States or to U.S. persons, or in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Teniz Capital and/or its affiliates may have positions in securities mentioned herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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