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Oil and Gas Price Update: Q1 2025 in Review
“The macroeconomic conditions that underpin our oil demand projections deteriorated over the past month as trade tensions escalated between the United States and several other countries,” a March oil market report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) notes, highlighting the downside risks of US tariffs and retaliatory measures.
The instability and weaker-than-expected consumption from advanced and developing economies prompted the IEA to downgrade its growth estimates for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 to about 1.2 million barrels per day.
Despite the uncertain outlook, an announcement that OPEC+ would extend a 2.2 million barrel per day production cut into Q2 added some support to the market amid global growth concerns and rising output in the US.
Prices spiked at the end of March, pushing both benchmarks to within a dollar of their 2025 start values. However, the rally was short-lived and prices had plummeted by April 9.
WTI price performance, December 31, 2024, to April 23, 2025.
Chart via the Investing News Network.
Sinking to four year lows, Brent and WTI fell below the critical US$60 threshold, reaching US$58.62 (Brent) and US$55.38 (WTI), levels not seen since April 2021. The decline saw prices shed more than 21 percent between January and April, shaking the market along with investor confidence.
“We're into supply destruction territory for some of the high-cost producers,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, told the Investing News Network. “It will not play out today or tomorrow, because a lot of these producers are forward hedging as part of their production.”
Watch Hansen discuss where oil and other commodities are heading.
According to Hansen, if prices remain in the high US$50 range, US production will likely decrease, aiding in a broader market realignment. "Eventually we will see production start to slow in the US, probably other places as well, and that will help balance the market,” the expert explained in the interview. “Helping to offset some of the risk related to recession, but also some of the production increases that we're seeing from OPEC.”
In early April, OPEC+ did an about face when it announced plans for a significant increase in oil production, marking its first output hike since 2022. The group plans to add 411,000 barrels per day to the market starting in May, effectively accelerating its previous strategy of gradual supply increases.
Although the group cited “supporting market stability” as the reason behind the increase, some analysts believe the decision was punitively targeted at countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan, which consistently exceed production quotas.
“(The increase) is basically in order to punish some of the over-producers,” said Hansen. He went on to explain that Kazakhstan produced 400,000 barrels beyond its quota.
If these countries return to their agreed limits, OPEC’s planned production hikes could be offset.
At the same time, US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela may tighten global supply further, while a growing military presence in the Middle East also signals rising geopolitical risks, particularly involving Iran.
Oil price forecast for 2025
Hansen expects oil prices to fluctuate between US$60 and US$80 for the rest of the year.
“(I am) struggling to see prices collapse much further than that, simply because it will have a counterproductive impact on supply and that will eventually help stabilize prices,” he said.
Hansen’s projections fall in line with data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The organization downgraded the US$74 Brent price forecast it set in March to US$68 in April.
The EIA foresees US and global oil production to continue rising in 2025, as OPEC+ speeds up its planned output increases and US energy remains exempt from new tariffs.
Starting mid-year, global oil inventories are projected to build. However, the EIA warns that economic uncertainty could dampen demand growth for petroleum products, potentially falling short of earlier forecasts.
“The combination of growing supply and lower demand leads EIA to expect the Brent crude oil price to average less than US$70 per barrel in 2025 and fall to an average of just over US$60 per barrel in 2026,” its April report reads.
Supply concerns add tailwinds for natural gas
On the natural gas side, Q1 was marked by tight conditions amid rising demand. A colder-than-normal winter led to increased consumption, with US natural gas withdrawals in Q1 exceeding the five year average.
Starting the year at US$3.59 per metric million British thermal units, prices rose to a year-to-date high of US$4.51 on March 10. Values pulled back to the US$4.09 level by the end of Q1, registering a 13.9 percent increase.
"Cold weather during January and February led to increased natural gas consumption and large natural gas withdrawals from inventories,” a March report from the EIA explains.
Natural gas price performance, December 31, 2024, to April 23, 2025.
Chart via the Investing News Network.
“(The) EIA now expects natural gas inventories to fall below 1.7 trillion cubic feet at the end of March, which is 10 percent below the previous five-year average and 6 percent less natural gas in storage for that time of year than EIA had expected last month," the document continues.
Natural gas price forecast for 2025
After record-setting demand growth in 2024, the natural gas market is expected to stay tight in 2025 amid market expansion from Asian countries. The IEA also anticipates price volatility brought on by geopolitical tensions.
“Though the halt of Russian piped gas transit via Ukraine on 1 January 2025 does not pose an imminent supply security risk for the European Union, it could increase liquefied natural gas (LNG) import requirements and tighten market fundamentals in 2025,” the organization notes in a Q1 natural gas market report.
Although the market is seen staying tight, the IEA is calling for growth in global natural gas demand to slow to below 2 percent in 2025. Similar to 2024’s trajectory, this growth is set to be largely driven by Asia, which is expected to account for almost 45 percent of incremental demand for natural gas.
The US-based EIA has a more optimistic outlook for the domestic natural gas sector, projecting that the annual demand growth rate for 2025 will be 4 percent. “This increase is led by an 18 percent increase in exports and a 9 percent increase in residential and commercial consumption for space heating,” an April EIA market overview states.
The report attributes the expected export growth to increased LNG shipments out of two new LNG export facilities.
Venture Global's (NYSE:VG) Plaquemines LNG facility in Louisiana commenced production in December 2024, and is currently in the commissioning phase. Once fully operational, it is expected to have a capacity of 20 million metric tons per annum. The facility has entered into binding long-term sales agreements for its full capacity.
Golden Pass LNG, a joint venture between ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) and state-owned QatarEnergy, is under construction in Sabine Pass, Texas. The project has faced delays due to a key contractor's bankruptcy, with Train 1 now expected to be operational by late 2025. Golden Pass LNG will have an export capacity of up to 18.1 million metric tons per annum.
The EIA forecasts that natural gas prices will average US$4.30 in 2025, a US$2.10 increase from 2024. Looking at 2026, the EIA anticipates a more modest increase to US$4.60.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Jupiter Energy
Investor Insight
Jupiter Energy’s strong cash flow, substantial proven recoverable reserves, and strategic foothold in resource-rich Kazakhstan present a compelling investment opportunity. Its commitment to sustainability—reinforced by a recent strategic investment in 100 percent gas utilization infrastructure—further enhances its long-term investor appeal.
Overview
Jupiter Energy Limited (ASX:JPR) is an established oil exploration and production company that operates three oilfields in Kazakhstan. The company is currently producing approximately 600 to 700 barrels of oil per day from its licensed fields, having successfully navigated Kazakhstan’s regulatory and operational landscape since 2008. Its operations are fully compliant, with its three full commercial production licenses secured until 2045/46/46.
Jupiter Energy is recognized as a reliable operator in Kazakhstan, holding 100 percent ownership of its licenses, which span approximately 123 sq km in the oil-rich Mangistau region. Strategically located near the port city of Aktau, its license area benefits from proximity to established oil processing facilities and extensive oil and gas infrastructure, including key pipeline connections to the country’s major refineries (see Figure 1).
The company has successfully navigated regulatory requirements to achieve full commercial production across its three oilfields—Akkar East, Akkar North (East Block), and West Zhetybai—all operating under 25-year commercial licenses. Jupiter’s strong compliance and operational framework reinforce its commitment to long-term, sustainable production in Kazakhstan.
Jupiter Energy’s reserve base has been independently confirmed by a Sproule International competent person’s report (CPR), effective 31 December 2023, detailing significant recoverable reserves.
According to the Sproule International CPR, released in January 2024, Jupiter Energy’s recoverable reserves under the SPE/PRMS classification are as follows:
- 1P Reserves: 14.691 million barrels (mmbbls)
- 2P Reserves: 36.487 mmbbls
- 3P Reserves: 46.796 mmbbls
These figures confirm Jupiter’s substantial reserve base, and correlate with its Kazakh State Approved Reserves which are recorded at approximately 52 mmbbls recoverable (using the GOST C1 + C2 classification methodology) (see Figure 2).
Figure 1: Total reserves for the Mangistau basin are estimated to be in excess of 5 billion barrels including two large oil fields, Uzen and Zhetybai.
On November 15, 2024, Jupiter Energy announced the completion of its gas pipeline integration project, connecting the Akkar East and Akkar North (East Block) oilfields to neighboring gas utilization facilities operated by its larger neighbour, MangistauMunaiGas (MMG). This integration ensures 100 percent utilization of all its associated gas, aligning with Kazakhstan’s environmental goals and enabling the Company to drill further wells whilst continuing to comply with Kazakhstan’s strict 100% gas utilisation policy.
The company plans to connect the West Zhetybai oilfield to this infrastructure as this oilfield is further developed. This project strengthens Jupiter’s relationships with MMG and the Kazakh Ministry of Energy, facilitating long-term production under its commercial licenses and enabling it to sell its oil into both the Kazakh domestic market as well as international oil markets.
Company Highlights
- Operating in Kazakhstan since 2008, with three oilfields under licence. The area is known as Block 36 (formerly Block 31).
- Holds commercial production licenses for all three of its oilfields, valid until 2045/2046/2046.
- Current production is approximately 640 barrels per day from four production wells, with plans to increase to approximately 1,000 barrels per day during 2025, with the drilling of a new production well (assuming success).
- Recent independent after-tax NPV of the oilfields (using a 20 percent discount) of US$180 million. This compares favourably to the Company’s current EV of approximately AU$63.5 million (~US$38 million) – based on a share price of AU$0.03 and balance sheet debt of ~$US15.1m.
- Operates in West Kazakhstan in the Mangistau region, a proven area for Kazakhstan’s oil reserves (see Figure 1).
- The company is cash flow positive at an operational level.
- Key shareholders include long term holders, Waterford (60 percent) and Blackbird Trust (21 percent).
- Jupiter’s recent strategic investment in its onfield gas utilisation infrastructure, signifies its commitment to sustainable operations, contribution to the welfare of the local community and support for Kazakhstan’s longer term commitment to a carbon free operating environment in the oil local industry.
Key Project: Block 36
Figure 2: Outline of Jupiter Energy’s oilfields located on Block 36
Block 36 is Jupiter Energy’s flagship project located in the Mangistau Basin of West Kazakhstan. Covering an area of approximately 123 sq km, it lies in a highly prospective region with proven oil reserves. The company acquired extensive 3D seismic data over the entire block and surrounding areas, totaling 235 sq km, which then enabled the identification of multiple drilling targets. The current reserve base covers 35 sq km, with further exploration targets available for drilling on the licence area, when funding for further exploration wells is available.
Jupiter has drilled nine wells on Block 36, targeting the Akkar North (East Block), Akkar East, and West Zhetybai oilfields (see Figure 3). The current production from Block 36 is approximately 640 barrels of oil per day, with plans to increase output to around 1,000 barrels per day during 2025, assuming success with the drilling of a new production well in 2H 2025. Further increases in production may also come via the workovers of existing wells and the drilling of further new wells, planned from 2025 to 2030.
Figure 3: Well locations on Block 36
At the helm of Jupiter Energy is a highly experienced corporate and technical leadership team, driving the company towards achieving its goals and increasing shareholder value.
Management Team
Geoff Gander - Chairman and CEO
Geoff Gander graduated from the University of Western Australia in 1984, where he completed a Bachelor of Commerce degree. He has been involved in the listing and running of public companies since 1994. He was appointed as a director of Jupiter Energy in January 2005 and he is currently responsible for the overall operational leadership of the company, as well as investor relations and group corporate development.
Baltabek Kuandykov - Non-executive Director
Baltabek Kuandykov is currently the president of Meridian Petroleum, a privately held Kazakh oil & gas company. He was formerly the president of Nelson Resources, an oil development and production company operating in Kazakhstan which was listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange until its acquisition by Lukoil in 2005. Kuandykov has considerable experience in the oil and gas industry in the region, having served as president of Kazakhoil (predecessor of the Kazakh State oil company KazMunaiGas), and is a well-respected consultant to Chevron Overseas Petroleum on CIS projects. He also worked in a senior capacity for Kazneftegazrazvedka and was president of Kazakhstancaspishelf. Kuandykov has extensive government experience in Kazakhstan, having served as deputy minister of geology, head of the oil and gas directorate at the Ministry of Geology, and was deputy minister of energy and fuel resources.
Alexey Kruzhkov - Non-executive Director
Alexey Kruzhkov holds an engineering degree and an MBA with over 10 years’ experience working in the investment industry, focusing primarily on the oil & gas, mining and real estate sectors. He has served as a director on the boards of companies listed in Canada and Norway. He is a member of the executive team of Waterford Finance and Investment Limited. He holds British and Russian citizenship.
Alexander Kuzev - Non-executive Director
Alexander Kuzev is an oil industry professional with over 26 years of experience. Most of his career has been spent working in the Former Soviet Union with much of that time responsible for the overall management of field operations with a focus on production sustainability, technology and field maintenance. He brings an important technical advisory skill set to the Jupiter Energy board, as well as in-country experience, having been involved with various Kazakhstan-based oil and gas operations since the late 1990s.
Keith Martens - Non-executive Director
Keith Martens has over 40 years’ experience as an oil finder and manager around the world. He has served as a technical advisor and consultant to a number of Australian oil & gas companies, and was instrumental in the discovery of Jupiter’s Akkar East and West Zhetybai oil fields when he was consulting to Jupiter Energy between 2007 and 2014. More recently, Martens has been working on the Eastern Margin of the Permian Basin in Texas with Winchester Energy and in the Paradox Basin in Utah and Colorado, as both lead explorationist and non-executive chairman of ASX listed Grand Gulf Energy (ASX:GGE).