In September 2024, China introduced new rebar standards that are anticipated to boost high-quality vanadium demand.
“Production of rebar with the new standards will increase per annum vanadium nitrogen consumption by roughly 15 percent,” a July Fastmarkets report notes. “That calculation is based on China’s 2023 rebar production volume.”
“Vanadium demand in steel alloys will rise in 2025 due to change in Chinese rebar standards. However, expected demand rise in steel will not be as high as estimated from battery manufacturing in the medium term due to slowdown in the Chinese construction industry,” said Piyush Goel, commodities consultant at CRU Group, via email.
“Vanadium demand in batteries is estimated to rise rapidly; this rise in demand will primarily come from China due to targeted government policies towards VRFBs," he told the Investing News Network (INN).
China, which is the leading producer of vanadium, is also expected to drive global demand in the year ahead.
“Rise in vanadium demand in the medium term (til 2029) is estimated to be heavily concentrated in China, because we estimate VRFB demand to pick up faster in China compared to other regions,” he said. “Similarly, Chinese rebar standards also changed — requiring higher-vanadium-intensity steel. Due to the rapid rise in domestic vanadium demand, China is likely to become a net importer of vanadium as the Chinese market goes into deficit from surplus.”
Vanadium demand faces rebar challenges, with limited boost from batteries
Even though Fastmarkets is calling for a 15 percent uptick in vanadium demand for rebar, this will only bring demand back up to previous levels. As Erik Sardain, principal analyst for Project Blue, explained, China’s weak construction market has caused a 15 percent year-on-year decline in domestic rebar construction.
Despite positivity in the VRFB space, Sardain doesn’t expect this to offset lower rebar demand.
“No, no, no, no, absolutely not. If you want to look worldwide, you can say that steel in general is something like 90 percent (of vanadium demand),” Sardain said in a December interview with INN.
The expert went on to point out that quantifying the amount of vanadium used in batteries and energy storage is challenging. He also questioned demand trend forecasts from the battery segment.
“I think the market got it wrong for one main reason, because the market is assuming that the vanadium redox battery for the storage system is going to be something worldwide,” he said.
“And at Project Blue, we don't think it's going to be global. We think it's going to be primarily China.”
He attributes this to the types of installations utilizing VRFB energy storage systems, telling INN that China is using the technology to power grids, while other countries are using it for small-scale applications.
Taking a more optimistic and long-term view, CRU’s Goel sees more viability in the battery and energy storage segments.
“VRFBs will have a considerable impact on the vanadium industry through the next two decades, but will play a minor role in the energy storage space — accounting for only 3.5 percent of total battery energy storage installations by 2035,” said Goel. “Although VRFBs will make up a small portion of total energy storage, they are significant consumers of vanadium and will consume the majority of global vanadium in 2035, compared to ~6 percent in 2024."
Supply picture blurred by geopolitics
As the Russia-Ukraine war continues and tensions between the US and China grow, many metals have faced volatility. These disruptions have impacted global markets, spurring policymakers to fast track new supply chains.
China’s restrictions on gallium and germanium exports in August 2023 escalated to a complete ban on shipments to the US in December 2024, intensifying global supply concerns.
Potential export caps and tariffs threaten to disrupt already fragile supply chains; however, Goel told INN that he doesn’t foresee these issues impacting the vanadium market.
“Similar trade restrictions are unlikely in vanadium, as most of the recent rise in vanadium demand is coming from China, which means China is likely to become a net importer if no new capacity is opened,” he said.
“This also means that should China become import reliant for a meaningful share of vanadium, which is to be used in two significant national industries (steel and energy storage), vanadium will move up in criticality matrices for China — moving nearer to materials like iron ore, potash and high-purity quartz.”
As demand in China picks up, Sardain anticipates the Asian nation will ramp up production. “With the current geopolitical environment, there is absolutely no way that China is going to rely on imports of vanadium,” he noted.
According to Goel, China isn’t the only country that is looking to be less reliant on imports. “Governments worldwide have recognized vanadium as a critical mineral, leading to increased support for emerging vanadium projects,” he said.
He referenced Australian company Vecco Group, which received an AU$3.8 million grant to advance the feasibility and design of a high-purity vanadium project in Brisbane.
“However, such grants are not enough to bring a project from conception to production. The current low vanadium pricing environment is a barrier to increasing ex-China capacity,” he added.
Australia to dominate growing vanadium supply capacity
While China will dominate the vanadium narrative in 2025, Australia is positioning to become a production hub.
In addition to getting its AU$3.8 million grant, Vecco’s project was granted coordinated project status by the Queensland government this past July. The status designation streamlines approvals for major developments with significant impacts, centralizing assessments and enabling public consultation.
In late December, explorer and developer QEM (ASX:QEM) also received coordinated project status from Queensland for its Julia Creek vanadium and energy project. According to a July release, a scoping study completed for Julia Creek affirms the company’s aim to produce approximately 10,571 metric tons of 99.95 percent pure vanadium pentoxide and 313 million liters of transport fuel annually over a 30 year mine life.
In mid-January, Australian Vanadium (ASX:AVL,OTC Pink:ATVVF) was granted environmental approval for its Gabanintha vanadium project in Western Australia. The approval covers a mine, concentrator, processing plant and supporting infrastructure, including a bore field and camp. The company is updating its optimized feasibility study to integrate Gabanintha into its Australian Vanadium project, one of the largest and highest-grade vanadium deposits.
How will the vanadium price perform in 2025?
Underscoring the weakness in the vanadium market, Sardain recounted factors impeding price growth.
He explained that despite several elements that should have boosted demand, the market remains surprisingly weak. Chinese monetary stimulus measures and stricter rebar standard enforcement failed to drive prices higher.
Russian vanadium pentoxide exports to China have dried up, and supply uncertainties persist in South Africa.
These conditions, which typically would have supported price increases for the battery metal, have instead had little impact, highlighting the subdued demand, especially in China.
“To be really honest, I was expecting the market to pick up in the second half of 2024,” he said.
“I was expecting this to happen, because I was looking at the interest rate in Europe, the (European Central Bank) cutting interest rates. I was expecting some kind of recovery for the European economy. I was expecting the Chinese government to be more proactive. I was expecting the property market in China to stabilize. So I was expecting some kind of rebound in the second half, which didn't take place," Sardain explained to INN.
Although the market didn’t perform to expectations in 2024, he sees promise in the months ahead.
“I think that the market is currently bottoming out. I believe that we are very close to the stabilization of the property market in China. Whether it's going to happen in Q1 or Q2 I don't know, but maybe (there will be) some kind of very, very, very mild recovery in the second half (of the year),” he said.
Highlighting the market’s positive fundamentals, CRU’s Goel said he sees a price rebound in 2025.
“We are estimating a global supply deficit in 2025 due to change in rebar standards and rise in vanadium battery demand, causing vanadium prices to rise,” said Goel. “As more supply comes online in 2026 and 2027, by 2027 vanadium prices will come down when compared to 2025 prices, but crucially remain higher than the pricing in the last 12 months.”
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Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
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