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Lithium Market Forecast: Top Trends for Lithium in 2025
After a tumultuous 2024 that saw lithium carbonate prices tumble 22 percent amid a global supply glut, analysts are predicting another year of volatility for the important battery metal.
Even so, some balance is expected to return — according to S&P Global, the lithium surplus is projected to narrow to 33,000 metric tons in 2025, down from 84,000 metric tons in 2024, as production cuts begin to temper excess supply.
Demand from the electric vehicle (EV) market remains a key driver, with China maintaining its dominance after record-breaking sales in late 2024. In North America, the EV sector will face uncertainty under the Trump administration.
As 2025 unfolds, the lithium sector will also have to navigate geopolitical tensions, including rising tariffs on Chinese EVs and escalating trade disputes that are reshaping global supply chains.
“The name of the game in lithium (in 2025) is oversupply. Excess production in places like Africa and China, coupled with softer EV sales, has absolutely hammered the lithium price both in 2023 and 2024. I wouldn't think we can dig ourselves out of this hole in 2025 despite reliably strong EV sales,” said Chris Berry, president of House Mountain Partners.
In his view, the next 12 months could be unpredictable in terms of lithium price activity.
“Lithium price volatility is a feature of the energy transition and not a bug,” he said. “You have a small but fast-growing market, opaque pricing, legislation designed to rapidly build critical infrastructure underpinned by lithium and other metals, and this is a recipe for boom-and-bust cycles demonstrated by extremely high and extremely low pricing.”
For Gerardo Del Real of Digest Publishing, seeing prices for lithium contract by 80 percent over the last two years evidences a bottoming in the lithium market and also serves as a strong signal.
“I think the fact that we're up some 7 percent to close the year in 2024 in the spot price leads me to believe that we're going to see a pretty robust rebound in 2025. I think that's going to extend to the producers that have obviously been affected by the lower prices, but also to the quality exploration companies,” Del Real said in December.
He believes contrarian investors with a mid to long-term outlook have a prime opportunity to re-enter the space.
Lithium market to see more balance in 2025
As mentioned, widespread lithium production cuts are expected to help bring the sector into balance in 2025.
William Adams, head of base metals research at Fastmarkets, told the Investing News Network (INN) via email that output cuts for the battery metal have already started inside and outside of China.
“We expect further cutbacks if prices do not recover soon in the new year. While we have seen some cuts, we are also seeing some producers continue with their expansion plans and some advanced junior miners ramp up production. So we are now in a situation where we are waiting for demand to catch up with production again," he said.
Adams and Fastmarkets expect to see lithium demand catch up to production in late 2025. However, he warned that refreshed demand is unlikely to push prices to previous highs set in 2022.
“We do not expect to see a return to the highs we saw in 2022, as there are more producers and mines around now and there has been a buildup of stocks along the supply chain, especially in China,” he said.
“This should prevent any actual shortage being seen in 2025, but stocks can be held in tight hands, and if the market senses a tighter market, then they may be encouraged to restock, which could lift prices. But the restart of idle capacity in such a case is likely to keep prices rises in check," Adams added.
Analysts at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence are taking a similar stance, with a slightly more optimistic tone.
“In 2025, prices are likely to remain fairly rangebound. This is because Benchmark forecasts a relatively balanced market next year in terms of supply and demand,” said Adam Megginson, senior analyst at the firm. He also referenced output reductions in Australia and China, noting that they may not be as impactful as some market watchers anticipate.
This past July, Albemarle (NYSE:ALB), announced plans to halve processing capacity in Australia and pause an expansion at its Kemerton plant amid the prolonged lithium price slump. One of the plant’s two processing trains will be placed on care and maintenance, while construction of a third train has been scrapped.
“These supply contractions are likely to be balanced by capacity expansions due to come online in China in 2025, as well as in African countries like Zimbabwe and Mali,” Megginson said.
“Expect supply from these other regions to play a bigger role in the market in 2025.”
Unpredictable geopolitical situation to impact sector
Geopolitics is likely to play a key role in the lithium market this year, both directly and indirectly.
In 2024, the Biden administration raised tariffs on Chinese EVs to over 100 percent to counter alleged unfair trade practices, aiming to boost domestic production, but drawing criticism over potential supply chain disruptions.
Canada followed suit with similar 100 percent tariffs on Chinese EVs, as well as a 25 percent surcharge on Chinese steel and aluminum, citing the need to protect local industries. China has responded with World Trade Organization complaints against Canada and the US, along with the EU, labeling the measures protectionist.
Whether these tariffs against China will be enough to bolster the domestic North American EV market remains to be seen; however, the issue could become even more complicated if US President-elect Donald Trump makes good on his threats to levy tariffs on America's continental trade partners, Canada and Mexico.
Del Real doesn't expect US tariffs on critical minerals like lithium, but expressed concerns about a trade war.
“The bottom line is getting into a tit-for-tat with China is a dangerous proposition because of the leverage they have, especially in the commodity space, and so the tariffs are going to be passed down to consumers," he said. In his view, Trump's tariff threats could be more of a negotiating tactic than a sustained strategy.
More broadly, the experts INN heard from expect resource nationalism, near shoring and supply chain security to play prevalent roles in the lithium market and the critical minerals space as a whole.
“There's no doubt that lithium in particular has become politicized as policy makers across the globe have awoken from their slumber and realized that dependence on critical materials and supply chains in a single country is a bad idea for both economic and national security,” said Berry, noting that China had this realization decades ago.
“There is no easy fix, and you're looking at roughly a decade before any western countries have any sort of a regionalized or 'friend-shored' supply chain. Accelerating this would involve massive capital investment, patience and most importantly, political will. North America in particular has made great strides in recent years, but we have a long way to go. I'm not sure if fully decoupling from China is even a good idea," the battery metals expert added.
For Benchmark’s Megginson, 2025 could be a year of increased domestic development.
"The name of the game in lithium (in 2025) is oversupply. Excess production in places like Africa and China, coupled with softer EV sales, has absolutely hammered the lithium price both in 2023 and 2024. I wouldn't think we can dig ourselves out of this hole in 2025 despite reliably strong EV sales" — Chris Berry, House Mountain Partners
“We have seen several countries attempting to adopt some form of 'resource nationalism.' In some cases, this has been driven by wanting to onshore the production of critical minerals that are necessary for defense and nuclear applications. In others, it stems from a desire to be more self-sufficient so they can be more resilient to supply shocks.”
Proposed tariffs from Trump could also serve as a catalyst for US lithium output.
“With the incoming Trump administration, everyone has their eyes on how promises of increased tariffs will be implemented. Ultimately, heavier tariffs would accelerate efforts to onshore capacity in the US,” Megginson said.
“We may see the EU following suit with tariffs. There has been much said of the diversification of the lithium market away from China, but many of those efforts stalled in 2024 as the downswing in prices and a shifting geopolitical landscape made these endeavors more challenging," added the Benchmark senior analyst.
This nationalistic focus is also projected to impact refinement capacity and jurisdiction.
“While extracting the lithium from the ground has been successfully done in non-incumbent countries, such as in Brazil, Central Africa and Canada, with others expected to follow, the building of refining capacity has proved more difficult from a know-how and cost point of view, with a number of companies announcing that they are reining in some expansion plans, canceling some building projects or delaying decisions,” Adams of Fastmarkets said.
He went on to note that South Korea is an area to watch.
“Outside of China, South Korea has successfully ramped up new refining capacity, while Australia has had mixed results. The general issue is it’s hard to get the process right, and the CAPEX and OPEX outside of China means it is hard to be competitive. It will be interesting to see how Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) new Texas plant ramps up,” Adams noted.
Elsewhere, Adams pointed to the desire to secure supply chains. “Resource nationalism has also been an issue in some jurisdictions, with more countries now wanting processing capacity to be built in the country, and in order to force that they have banned the export of lithium-bearing ores. Zimbabwe a case in point,” he told INN.
Adams also pointed to Chile’s efforts to partially nationalize lithium producers, with the government mining company having controlling stakes in producers. “This could deter international investment in developing these mines,” he said. “In other metals, Indonesia has been very successful in playing the resource nationalism card.”
EV and ESS sectors to be key lithium price drivers
While the factors mentioned will undoubtedly impact the lithium industry in 2025, the market's most pronounced driver is the EV sector, and to a lesser extent the energy storage system (ESS) space.
“Demand for lithium-ion batteries is set to continue to grow rapidly in 2025. Benchmark forecasts that EV and ESS-related demand for lithium will both increase by over 30 percent year-on-year in 2025,” said Megginson.
To satiate this uptick in demand, “additional volumes of lithium will need to come to market.”
Megginson also noted that robust ESS demand is a positive demand signal for lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) cathode chemistries, but is unlikely to outweigh the mounting EV demand in China.
This sentiment was echoed by Berry of House Mountain Partners, who expects the EV and ESS sectors to continue dominating market share in terms of lithium end use. “EVs and ESS are roughly 80 percent of lithium demand, and this shows no signs of abating. Other lithium demand avenues will grow reliably at global GDP, but the future of lithium is tied to increasing proliferation of the lithium-ion battery,” he commented to INN.
Despite weak EV sales in Europe and North America in 2024, Fastmarkets’ Adams expects to see a recovery in demand from these regions, paired with strong sales in China. The dip in European sales, particularly in Germany after subsidy cuts in early 2024, mirrors China’s 2019 slowdown following subsidy reductions. However, as with China, the decline appears temporary, with a recovery expected as stricter emissions penalties take effect in Europe in 2025.
Additionally, Adams pointed to the growing adoption of extended-range EVs, which address range anxiety and use larger batteries than plug-in hybrid EVs, as a catalyst for lithium demand.
However, he noted that the outlook for EVs in the US remains uncertain as Trump takes the helm.
“ESS demand has been particularly strong, especially in China, and we expect that to continue as the need to build renewable energy generation capacity is ever present and has a wide footprint. For example, ESS buildout in India is strong, whereas demand for EVs is less strong, but again it is strong for 2/3 wheelers," said Adams. He added that low prices for battery raw materials have lowered prices for lithium-ion batteries, benefiting ESS projects.
Ultimately the lithium market is expected to see volatility in 2025, but could also present opportunities.
"I can see a 100 to 150 percent rebound in the lithium spot price easily in 2025. And again, I think there's a lot of opportunity there,” Del Real of Digest Publishing emphasized to INN.
For Megginson, the sector will be shaped by geopolitics and relations moving forward.
“Policy will have a huge role to play in driving price trends in 2025," he said.
"For instance, there remains uncertainty around how the tariffs promised by an incoming Trump administration in the US would be implemented, and how they could reshape the global lithium landscape."
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Beyond Lithium and Grid Battery Metals are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Lithium Market Update: Q1 2025 in Review
The global lithium market experienced a significant downturn during the first quarter of 2025, with some price segments falling to four year lows. Persistent oversupply and weaker-than-anticipated demand, particularly from the electric vehicle (EV) sector, prevented any market gains over the three month period.
After starting the year at a steady pace, the lithium carbonate CIF North Asia price fell below US$9,550 per metric ton in February, its lowest point since 2021. Its downward trend has triggered more production cuts and project delays among major producers, especially in Australia and China, as companies seek to balance the market.
With prices well off highs seen in 2021 and 2022, analysts are suggesting that these adjustments may signal a market bottom, with projections indicating a potential shift to a lithium supply deficit as early as 2026.
Lithium market continuing to rebalance
Over the last five years, annual global lithium carbonate production has ballooned, rising from 82,000 metric tons in 2020 to 240,000 metric tons in 2024, representing a 192 percent increase.
As output more than doubled, demand failed to keep pace, leading to massive market oversupply.
In a February report, Fastmarkets analysts note that the lithium market saw an estimated surplus of 175,000 metric tons in 2023 and 154,000 metric tons in 2024.
The firm expects this surplus to continue contracting in 2025, with experts anticipating a much tighter balance ahead. They see a surplus of just 10,000 metric tons in 2025 followed by a 1,500 metric ton deficit in 2026.
This sentiment was echoed by Adam Webb, head of battery raw materials at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, during a market overview at the Benchmark Summit, held in Toronto in early March.
“We're expecting this year for the market to remain in surplus,” he said. A 2025 surplus paired with high inventory levels from the previous two years is expected to impede price movement.
“Our expectation for this year is that lithium carbonate prices will remain about where they are, US$10,400 per metric ton,” Webb told attendees. “But if we look further ahead, from 2026 onwards, that market is switching into the deficit, albeit quite small to start with, and that will end up being supportive of prices.”
As Webb explained, prices need to find some support because current levels are unsustainable.
“I think we've more or less hit the bottom,” he said told the audience while pointing to a chart showcasing the all-in sustaining cost curve for lithium in 2025. Webb added that at the current price level of US$10,400 per metric ton, "about a third of the industry currently is not profitable. So prices can't move much lower, because that's going to put even more production under pressure, and you can see more supply come offline."
Stifled, stranded and shuttered supply
The sharp decline in lithium prices has already compelled various lithium-mining companies to curtail production, delay expansion plans and implement workforce reductions.
In August 2024, Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS,OTC Pink:PILBF) reported an 89 percent year-on-year drop in annual net income and deferred plans to create the world's largest lithium mine. The company also said it would reduce its capital expenditures to between AU$615 million and AU$685 million for the current financial year.
This past February, Albemarle (NYSE:ALB) halted expansion plans for its Kemerton plant in Western Australia and mothballed its Chengdu lithium hydroxide plant in China, citing prolonged low prices. The company also reduced its 2025 capital expenditure forecast by US$100 million, to US$700 million to US$800 million.
Additionally, Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN,OTC Pink:MALRF) mothballed its Bald Hill operations in December, and Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) has scaled back its production targets for the Kathleen Valley lithium project in response to prolonged low lithium prices. The company now plans to reach a production rate of 2.8 million metric tons per year by the end of its 2027 fiscal year — pushing back its earlier goal of hitting 3 million metric tons by Q1 2025.
The broad market weakness in the lithium sector has also led to some deals.
In early March, mining major Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) completed its US$6.7 billion purchase of Arcadium Lithium. Through the deal, Rio Tinto has acquired several lithium carbonate projects in Argentina, as well as lithium hydroxide production capacity in the US, Japan and China. The company is aiming to increase its lithium carbonate equivalent production capacity to over 200,000 metric tons annually by 2028.
“Our expectation for this year is that lithium carbonate prices will remain about where they are, US$10,400 per metric ton. But if we look further ahead, from 2026 onwards, that market is switching into the deficit, albeit quite small to start with, and that will end up being supportive of prices" — Adam Webb, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
Also in March, Lithium Americas (TSX:LAC,NYSE:LAC) secured a US$250 million investment from Orion Resource Partners to support the development and construction of Phase 1 of its Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada.
The funding package is expected to fully cover project and corporate costs through the construction phase, with completion of Phase 1 targeted for late 2027.
Earlier in the quarter, Standard Lithium (TSXV:SLI,NYSE:A:SLI) and Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) announced that their joint venture, SWA Lithium, had received a US$225 million grant from the US Department of Energy. The funding is earmarked for the construction of Phase 1 of the South West Arkansas lithium project.
Battery sector growth key to long-term lithium recovery
The largest factor behind lithium market oversupply has been the gap between projected and actual EV demand. Ambitious projections about EV adoption through the 2020s led producers to ramp up lithium output in anticipation of a surge in EV sales; however, EV adoption has been slower than expected, leading to excess supply.
“(In 2024), EV growth was slower than had been expected, but actually it still grew significantly globally,” said Webb. “But there were really important regional differences in that growth.” He went on to explain that China’s EV market saw a 36 percent year-on-year increase, with plug-in hybrids making up 40 percent of sales.
In contrast, EV sales in Europe declined by 4 percent, largely due to subsidy cuts in Germany. North America experienced 8 percent growth, albeit from a smaller base, Webb added.
“China will remain the biggest growth market (over the next decade),” he said. “But in the EU we're expecting six times the number of sales in 10 years, and here in North America seven times.”
The lithium market is also expected to benefit from higher energy storage system demand, which is set to increase from US$251.14 billion in 2024 to US$271.73 billion in 2025. In 2024, the energy storage system segment contributed to a 28 percent year-on-year increase in battery demand, according to the Benchmark analyst.
“Looking out 10 years, it's still quite a rosy picture, really — a 15 percent CAGR out to 2035 — and that translates to more demand for the raw materials that go into these batteries,” said Webb.
Additionally, this expansion has been impacted by economies of scale, which have sent battery cell prices to record lows — they averaged US$73 per kilowatt-hour in 2023 and hit US$63.50 kilowatt-hour in December.
Reduced battery costs could offer long-term support to the demand narrative by helping to drive down the cost of EVs and energy storage systems.
Energy storage demand a potential major catalyst
The rapid growth in energy storage was also underscored by Ernie Ortiz, president and CEO of Lithium Royalty (TSX:LIRC,OTC Pink:LITRF) and a panelist at the Benchmark Summit.
When asked if there will be enough future supply to meet demand projections, Ortiz was optimistic.
“I do think there will be enough supply, but at a price,” he said.
“So you need prices to rise in order to incentivize that new supply response.”
He went on to explain that in 2025, lithium supply growth is projected at approximately 17 percent, but with energy storage demand potentially doubling, that sector alone could absorb the expected supply increase. When combined with rising EV demand, much of the additional supply may be consumed, potentially reducing inventory levels by year end.
“Then you probably incentivize some of the care-and-maintenance assets,” said Ortiz. “But then you look at 2026 and 2027, and there's a very limited investment for greenfield assets.”
Long-term lithium price outlook
Benchmark has pegged the CAGR of the lithium market at 12 percent over the next 10 years, although this could be impeded due to the amount of project delays and shutterings. In the long term, the metals consultancy and pricing firm is also projecting a significant gap between projected demand and currently financed supply.
Webb explained that unfunded projects and future yet-to-be-identified greenfield developments together represent 1.3 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent that the market will need.
“For those projects to be incentivized, prices have to rise,” said Webb. “Our long-term incentive price for lithium is US$21,000 per metric ton. So prices will have to rise in the longer term for lithium.”
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
The lithium market continued to battle headwinds during the first quarter of 2025 as residual oversupply weighed on prices, pushing them to a four year low.
Weaker-than-expected demand to start the year also added pressure to the oversupplied market, resulting in the lithium carbonate CIF North Asia price to fall below US$9,550 per metric ton, its lowest point since 2021.
Analysts have suggested the persistent downturn is the signaling of a market bottom. This theory is further supported by a projected production reduction that will help absorb market oversupply.
“Lithium market conditions — particularly during the latter part of 2024 – led to growing producer restraint, both in China and elsewhere,” wrote Fastmarkets’ head of battery raw material analytics Paul Lusty. “Australian production cuts started in January 2024 but built momentum during the year, with several miners announcing production cuts, plans to place plants on care and maintenance and the suspension of planned expansions owing to market conditions.”
The global commodities firm is forecasting a shift in market dynamics, with analysts projecting a much tighter balance ahead. Initial estimates peg 2025’s surplus at 10,000 metric tons before the market moves into a deficit position in 2026.
How are Canadian lithium stocks performing against this backdrop?
The Investing News Network has created an overview of the top-performing Canadian lithium stocks. While companies on the TSX, TSXV and CSE were considered, only stocks on the TSXV made the list this time.
This list was created on March 25, 2025, using TradingView's stock screener, and all data was current at that time. Only companies with market caps above C$10 million for the TSX and TSXV and above C$5 million for the CSE are included.
Year-to-date gain: 163.04 percent
Market cap: C$196.57 million
Share price: C$1.21
Exploration company Power Metals holds a portfolio of diversified assets in Ontario and Québec, Canada. The company’s flagship Case Lake project in Ontario hosts spodumene-bearing lithium-cesium-tantalum pegmatites.
In November 2024, Power Metals identified a new pegmatite zone at Case Lake through soil sampling. The samples from the zone, located north-northwest of its West Joe prospect, revealed elevated levels of cesium, tantalum, lithium and rubidium, which the company said "affirmed prospective drill targets" for its winter program.
On February 10, Power Metals announced the beginning of work associated with the maiden mineral resource estimate and preliminary economic assessment for Case Lake, which it plans to release in Q1 and Q2 of 2025 respectively. Days later on February 14, the company followed that announcement by releasing the final assays from its Phase 3 drilling at Case Lake, including “exceptional cesium oxide and tantalum intercepts” from the West Joe prospect.
The company's share price rose in the weeks following the pair of announcements to reach a Q1 high of C$1.46 on February 25.
Year-to-date gain: 41.18 percent
Market cap: C$46.99 million
Share price: C$0.36
NOA is a lithium exploration and development company with three projects in Argentina’s Lithium Triangle region. The company’s flagship Rio Grande project and prospective Arizaro and Salinas Grandes land packages total more than 140,000 hectares.
In late January, NOA reported its completion of 28 vertical electrical sounding geophysics tests at the Rio Grande project as part of its 2025 exploration program.
The recent testing expands on past studies and will aid NOA's water exploration program, refining one of three identified potential water sources.
In a subsequent corporate update on February 7, NOA outlined its plans for Q1 2025, which largely focused on the advancement of the Rio Grande project through geophysical evaluation and water exploration drilling. The company also plans to review engineering proposals for preliminary economic assessment work.
The company's share price began climbing in early February and reached a Q1 high of C$0.37 on March 13.
The high came days after a Simply Wall Street report highlighted insider buying at the company, a signal of strong internal confidence. According to the report, NOA insiders invested C$862,600 over the prior six months, with C$358,000 of that coming in a single transaction by CEO and Director Gabriel Rubacha. Additionally, they had not sold any shares in the prior 12 months.
Year-to-date gain: 35.56 percent
Market cap: C$141.38 million
Share price: C$0.61
Pre-production mining company Frontier Lithium aims to be a strategic and integrated supplier of premium spodumene concentrates as well as battery-grade lithium salts in North America.
The Company's flagship PAK lithium project, which is a joint venture with Mitsubishi (TSE:8058), holds the “largest land position and resource” in a premium lithium mineral district located in the Great Lakes region of Ontario, Canada. Frontier also owns the Spark deposit, located northwest of the PAK project.
Shares of Frontier Lithium reached a Q1 high of C$0.79 on March 4. After already trending upwards through February, its share price peaked alongside news that the Government of Canada and the Ontario Government supported the company's plans to build a critical minerals refinery in Northern Ontario.
Once complete the proposed lithium conversion facility will process lithium from PAK into around 20,000 metric tons of lithium salts per year. “This expected capacity would support the production of batteries for approximately 500,000 electric vehicles per year,” Frontier's statement reads.
Year-to-date gain: 30.77 percent
Market cap: C$144.59 million
Share price: C$1.02
Exploration firm Q2 Metals is exploring three lithium properties — Cisco, Mia and Stellar — in the Eeyou Istchee James Bay region of Québec, Canada. Its Mia project hosts the Mia trend, which spans over 10 kilometers, and its Stellar lithium property comprises 77 claims 6 kilometers north of the Mia property.
In 2024, Q2 Metals acquired the Cisco lithium property and spent much of the year exploring the area. In December, Q2 acquired a 100 percent interest in 545 additional mineral claims, tripling its land position at the Cisco lithium property. A February 12 update reported that metallurgical testing on 2024 drill core showed that the primary lithium-bearing mineral in Cisco pegmatite is spodumene.
On February 26, Q2 announced that investors exercised 12.8 million share purchase warrants at C$0.60 each, generating C$7.68 million in proceeds for the company. The warrants were issued through a private placement in February 2023.
Shares of Q2 jumped to a Q1 high price of C$1.08 on March 18. The following day, later the company released some early results from its ongoing winter drill program, which is targeting 6,000 to 8,000 meters of drilling using two diamond drill rigs. The first four holes intersected “multiple wide intercepts of spodumene pegmatite, expanding previously identified mineralization.” The longest continuous interval of spodumene mineralization is 179.6 meters.
Year-to-date gain: 20 percent
Market cap: C$18.47 million
Share price: C$0.06
Lithium exploration company Wealth Minerals owns three exploration-stage projects — Kuska, Pabellón and Yapuckuta— all located in Chile.
On February 3, Wealth Minerals released its first news of the year, announcing it penned a joint venture development deal with the Quechua Indigenous Community of Ollagüe for the development of the Kuska project.
Under the deal the Quechua community will hold a 5 percent free-carried interest and a board seat in the JV, ensuring community participation. The partnership may also explore additional projects in the region.
On February 6, Wealth Minerals acquired the Pabellón lithium project, consisting of a portfolio of 26 mineral exploration licenses with an area of 7,600 hectares located in Northern Chile near the Chile-Bolivia border. The project may serve as an additional source of material to Kuska.
The surface of Pabellón hosts South America's only geothermal power plant, Cerro Pabellón, which is majority owned by electricity company ENEL (MIL:ENEL). Wealth Minerals stated it is considering installing a direct lithium extraction unit next to the plant.
The company's share price spiked in mid-January, and touched a Q1 high of C$0.095 on January 31, February 7 and February 10.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Cobalt Market Forecast: Top Trends for Cobalt in 2025
Oversupply and shifting battery chemistries are set to define the cobalt market in 2025. Prices — subdued by excess supply since 2023 — are expected to remain stable, with limited volatility.
The rise of lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries, particularly in China, continues to suppress demand for cobalt chemicals, challenging sulfate refiners. Meanwhile, on the supply side, Indonesia's rapid expansion in mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) production offers an alternative to the contentious Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Even so, the DRC is expected to remain the primary producer of cobalt in the near to medium term.
“Oversupply has been the dominant driving force for cobalt prices since 2023, and this is likely to persist in 2025,” Roman Aubry, price analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, said. “As this single factor is so overwhelming, it has stifled much of the volatility in the market in 2024, and it is likely this will be the case in 2025 as well.”
Cobalt demand projected to rise long term
Critical minerals have become a key focus as nations look to fortify domestic supply chains. The cobalt sector’s production concentration in the DRC makes it even more prone to geopolitical upheaval.
According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2024 Global Critical Minerals Outlook, the cobalt market has a heightened geopolitical risk rating because 84 percent of production is focused in a single country.
Despite the current cobalt glut, the IEA is projecting that demand will soar from 213,000 metric tons in 2023, rising to 344,000 metric tons in 2030 and then to 454,000 metric tons in 2040.
This steep uptick has prompted the IEA to project a potential 16 percent shortfall by 2035.
"Oversupply has been the dominant driving force for cobalt prices since 2023, and this is likely to persist in 2025" — Roman Aubry, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
Although countries like Indonesia and Australia are starting to see cobalt sector growth, experts agree that the DRC will continue to be the dominant player in the industry into the future.
“The DRC is going to maintain its position for the foreseeable future; however, Indonesian MHP is rapidly growing as an alternative source of cobalt in the market. In line with this, we’ve seen an influx of cobalt metal from Indonesia becoming more prevalent in recent months, being aggressively marketed by Indonesian producers,” said Aubry.
Those circumstances mean Indonesia could capture a larger piece of market share this year.
“With CMOC (OTC Pink:CMCLF,SHA:603993) not planning any new expansions this year, it is unlikely we'll see any significant growth from the DRC in cobalt production in 2025,” he added.
Refinement capacity will also play an important role in meeting growing cobalt demand.
Australia’s Cobalt Blue Holdings (ASX:COB,OTC Pink:CBBHF) is advancing plans for the Kwinana cobalt refinery near Perth, proposing an initial production capacity of 3,000 metric tons of cobalt sulfate and 500 metric tons of nickel metal annually. Construction is slated to commence in H1 2025, with completion expected within 12 months.
Changing battery chemistries threaten cobalt demand
In 2024, record-breaking global electric vehicle (EV) sales helped solidify cobalt's role in the energy transition. China is spearheading a 40.7 percent surge in EV and hybrid adoption, supported by aggressive pricing and subsidies.
China remained the largest growth market as domestic automakers outpaced foreign rivals. European sales rebounded from setbacks early in the year, with stricter emissions penalties set to drive further adoption in 2025.
Despite US market uncertainties, growing EV demand globally will sustain cobalt's importance, although supply chain challenges and alternative battery technologies may influence its trajectory.
“As LFP becomes increasingly dominant in China, sentiment for cobalt chemicals used in batteries has turned more bearish,” Aubry said. “A downturn in demand may put sulfate refiners under additional pressure, particularly at a time where the current market dynamics already present significant challenges due to prices.”
Rising copper, nickel production boosts cobalt glut
Another factor that could lead to additional cobalt surpluses is the production correlation with copper and nickel.
A November 2024 Fastmarkets report notes that 76 percent of global cobalt supply comes from copper-cobalt mines in the DRC. This by-product status exposes cobalt to market dynamics in the copper space.
In 2024, copper production in the region was on the rise, which in turn weighed on the cobalt market.
“But with cobalt demand remaining decidedly sluggish, copper’s upward trajectory will continue to fuel cobalt oversupply and, combined with the fact that copper production is poised to expand further, this will keep cobalt prices under pressure,” the Fastmarkets report reads.
A similar picture is playing out in Indonesia, where cobalt is mined as a by-product of nickel.
Indonesia’s rise as a cobalt powerhouse is poised to reshape the market, fueled by its booming MHP production. In 2024, the country supplied 10 percent of global cobalt, up from 7 percent in 2023, driven by Chinese-backed investments in nickel laterite ore projects using high-pressure acid leach technology.
Despite weak nickel prices, these projects are ensuring long-term cobalt output growth, with MHP-derived cobalt production projected to rise by a sizeable 17 percent in 2025.
Producers are increasingly favoring cobalt metal over sulfate due to higher profitability and easier storage.
Additionally, cobalt from Indonesia may be immune to US tariffs — that's in contrast to Chinese cobalt, which faces a 25 percent import tariff, as per Fastmarkets. “That possibility could raise concerns about shifting global supply dynamics and increase the pressure on cobalt prices," the firm explains.
Due to these factors, Fastmarkets is expecting a continued surplus of 21,000 metric tons in 2025, a slight decrease from 2024’s glut of 25,000 metric tons. Increased copper and nickel production is driving this trend, but challenges loom.
Weak nickel pricing, driven by Indonesia’s rapid growth, is squeezing producers in higher-cost regions like Australia and Canada, threatening project viability. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions, trade barriers and a strong US dollar could further disrupt cobalt flows, especially from Chinese-backed Indonesian operations. The market’s trajectory will depend heavily on economic conditions, trade dynamics and evolving technologies, the report concludes.
Ethical supply concerns continue
As the global mining sector faces increased scrutiny for its extraction practices, the DRC’s cobalt industry has proven to be a focal point for sustainability and social governance concerns.
Child labor at artisanal and small-scale cobalt mines in the country has drawn international attention, prompting the US Department of International Labor to establish a program to fight cobalt-related child labor in the DRC.
Since its inception in 2018, the project has trained 458 stakeholders from the government, civil society and the private sector on fighting child labor. Its other accomplishments include introducing tools like the Bureau of International Labor Affairs' Comply Chain to 28 mining entities in Lualaba and Haut-Katanga.
While these are moves in the right direction, the long-running negative attention that the DRC’s cobalt sector has faced could be a deterrent to new capital entering the country.
“Alternatives to the DRC are likely to become more attractive to investors if it can sidestep other potential pitfalls, such as high refining energy costs. Until a more sustainable supply chain is embedded, or there are more substantial regulations implemented to limit the prevalence of artisanal mining, prices are unlikely to see a premium for sustainably sourced cobalt in the immediate term,” Aubry told the Investing News Network.
Trump’s tough tariff talk
Although Indonesian supply may be exempt from current US trade rules, that could change in the near term.
The re-election of US President Donald Trump has introduced significant uncertainty into the cobalt market, particularly concerning the future of electric vehicle (EV) policies and potential trade measures.
Industry participants have expressed concerns that Trump may reverse existing EV legislation, notably the Inflation Reduction Act, which has been instrumental in channeling approximately US$312 billion into US EV production and infrastructure. The American president has previously indicated intentions to "end the electric vehicle mandate on day one" in a bid to "save the auto industry from complete obliteration."
Despite these statements, the proliferation of EV manufacturing facilities in predominantly Republican states suggests that any policy reversals could face resistance due to the economic benefits they bring to local communities.
Stricter tariffs on Chinese-origin cobalt and EVs is also a concern among market watchers.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Fortune Minerals and Mawson Finland are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Cobalt Market Update: Q1 2025 in Review
Cobalt metal prices fell to a nine year low in February after another year of oversupply, but rebounded sharply after the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) instituted a four month export pause for the critical metal.
After starting the year at US$24,495 per metric ton, cobalt ended the three month period at US$34,040.40, a strong 39 percent increase from January’s value. The price spread between cobalt’s first quarter low of US$21,467.70 on January 29 and its Q1 high of US$36,262 on March 17 is even more impressive at 69 percent.
The drop to US$21,467.70 marked the battery metal's lowest level since February 2016.
Cobalt's Q1 price activity comes after a persistent glut in the market prevented prices from gaining in 2024, and this oversupply continued to weigh the market down for the first 45 days of 2025.
A February 22 announcement that DRC would curtail cobalt shipments until the end of June provided much-needed tailwinds for prices, propelling them to highs last seen in 2023. Now sitting at the US$33,660.80 level, questions abound about what will happen to cobalt prices and the supply landscape during the rest of the year.
DRC export suspension boosts oversupplied market
Cobalt supply has ballooned over the last five years, with annual mine supply of the critical metal growing from 140,000 metric tons in 2020 to 290,000 metric tons in 2024. This 107 percent increase has far outpaced rising demand from the electric vehicle (EV) sector and other end-use segments, leading to a massive oversupply.
In mid-February, Rob Searle, battery raw materials analyst at Fastmarkets, wrote that while sector participants were waiting to see whether demand would pick up after the Lunar New Year, his firm wasn't overly optimistic on prices.
"At this stage we are not expecting a significant price correction given the oversupplied nature of the market from intermediates to cobalt metal," he explained, adding that cobalt could be due for "another bearish year."
Searle also noted that producer CMOC’s (OTC Pink:CMCLF,SHA:603993) 2025 guidance is pegged at 100,000 to 120,000 metric tons, on par with the 114,000 metric tons it produced in 2024.
Looking at the US, he said while potential tariffs on Canadian cobalt metal could create short-term tightness for "certain Western brands," Fastmarkets wasn't looking for a strong 2025 recovery in standard-grade cobalt metal pricing.
In response to the free-falling cobalt metal price, the DRC — the world’s leading cobalt-producing country by far — enacted a four month cobalt export suspension on February 24. The move quickly added tailwinds to cobalt metal prices, which as mentioned rose to a two year high of US$36,262 on March 17.
"The cobalt market has been quiet and stagnant for some time as production has far outstripped demand in the last 18 months. This was the first sign of life and took nearly all parties by surprise … a cut of supply this large will likely lead to a significant price correction in the coming months" — Rob Searle, Fastmarkets
“The cobalt market has been quiet and stagnant for some time as production has far outstripped demand in the last 18 months. This was the first sign of life and took nearly all parties by surprise … a cut of supply this large will likely lead to a significant price correction in the coming months,” Searle noted in a March 14 release.
“Post-June, when the ban is supposed to lift, the potential for export quotas going forward could support cobalt hydroxide and metal prices for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026.”
While companies are unable to ship cobalt hydroxide from the DRC, the suspension does not prevent the production and stockpiling of the critical material. Officials plan to review the embargo after three months.
Breaking down cobalt demand
The battery sector remains the largest cobalt end-use segment, representing approximately 70 percent of demand. This includes batteries in EVs, consumer goods and energy storage systems.
Super alloys, tooling and chemicals and catalysts account for the majority of the remaining 30 percent, with a small fraction also being used in magnets, medical implants and additive manufacturing (3D printing).
As Adam Webb, head of battery raw materials at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, explained at the Toronto-based Benchmark Summit in March, positive forecasts and significant growth in the EV market in 2020 and 2021 led to a widespread demand uptick for battery raw materials, including cobalt.
“That led to markets going into deficit, prices rising, and that incentivized new production to come online,” he said.
“But bringing on a new mine is not like turning on a tap — it takes time. So that new supply that was incentivized eventually came online a couple of years later, at the same time there’s been a slowdown in the growth of that demand, and that's led to all of these markets becoming oversupplied and weighing on prices," Webb added.
Will EV growth catalyze cobalt prices?
Although global EV sales have been lower than projected, the sector has registered widespread growth, setting a sales record in 2024 of 17.1 million EVs sold, representing a 25 percent year-on-year increase.
Regionally, China dominated with 40 percent growth, capped by a historic December that saw 1.3 million EVs sold, the highest monthly volume ever recorded, according to RhoMotion. The US posted a modest 9 percent uptick, fueled by federal tax credits that are now threatened by potential Trump administration rollbacks; meanwhile, Europe lagged with a 3 percent decline as automakers and consumers braced for tougher 2025 emissions standards.
“What is clear is that Government carrots and sticks are working,” Rho Motion data manager Charles Lester said in a January report. He explained that subsidies, incentives and mandates in the UK and North America supported growth.
“Meanwhile the removal of subsidies in Germany had a devastating impact on the whole European market, if the US follows suit, we may see the same there,” Lester added.
While full Q1 data for EV sales is yet to be available, January brought sales of 1.3 million units, an 18 percent year-on-year increase. The steady increase has prompted Rho Motion to forecast full-year sales exceeding 20 million units.
Substitution concerns mount as supply chain tightens
While EV sales continue to rise, cobalt’s future demand outlook is slightly obscured. The opacity is due to its growing substitution, with some battery chemistries using smaller amounts or no cobalt at all.
Although lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) batteries remain the preferred chemistry for EV batteries, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) chemistries have been increasing their market share. Accounting for 6 percent of the battery sector in 2020, LFPs now comprise as much as 34 percent of the market.
Even with low prices making cobalt affordable, the market is fraught with issues that make substitution appealing.
Human rights abuses, including child labor and unsafe work conditions in the DRC, have long plagued the country’s cobalt sector. These ethical concerns have prompted companies to seek more sustainable and humane alternatives.
Concentration of production has also created instability in the cobalt supply chain. The DRC's dominance in cobalt production, accounting for over 60 percent of global supply, exposes manufacturers to geopolitical and supply risks.
To combat these issues, researchers and companies are developing cobalt-free battery technologies, such as lithium-ion batteries using nickel-rich cathodes, which perform comparably to traditional cobalt-based batteries.
“In 2024, the volume of cobalt deployed per vehicle declined by 25 percent year on year,” as per Fastmarkets.
While demand for cobalt will continue due to the expansion of the EV market, these ethical, economic and supply chain concerns are driving the industry toward alternative battery chemistries with reduced or eliminated cobalt content.
In light of these factors, Benchmark’s Webb expects the cobalt sector's compound annual growth rate to be slightly lower than that of other battery raw materials, coming in at 7 percent over the next decade.
“That's simply because cobalt is not used in every single lithium ion battery, whereas lithium — the clue is in the name — it is,” said Webb.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Top 5 Canadian Cobalt Stocks of 2025
Cobalt prices have been in a steady state of decline for much of the past few years as the market has remained constrained by excess supply and eroding demand.
The sluggish market conditions were attributed to reduced demand from the battery sector and oversupply of material. As a result, prices remained under pressure, with limited signs of improvement expected in the near term.
Cobalt prices continued to face many headwinds at the beginning of 2025. The multi-year supply glut and the growing transition to cobalt-free electric vehicle battery chemistries pulled the value of the battery metal down to US$21,550 per metric ton on February 10, a low not seen for more than a decade.
However, the world's leading cobalt producing country, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) placed a four-month ban on cobalt exports on February 22 in an effort to boost prices. As the DRC is responsible for more than 70 percent of global cobalt production, this of course sent prices for the battery metal soaring to a yearly high of US$36,170 per metric ton as of March 17.
“Market views on the ban were mixed, with some participants expecting prices to continue increasing owing to tighter cobalt supply. But others were less concerned, noting that there was abundant cobalt material outside of the DRC,” a March report from Argus Media states.
As the DRC banned cobalt exports, not cobalt production, the country's production is currently being stockpiled. However, on March 14, the country announced it would implement quotas on stockpiles and production to avoid prices falling once the ban is lifted.
These tough market conditions in recent years have been reflected in the performance of cobalt exploration and mining companies. However, despite the challenges, a number of companies with more diversified metals portfolios that still offer exposure to cobalt have been able to make gains in the current market.
Below is a look at the five top cobalt stocks on the TSX and TSXV by share price performance so far this year. All year-to-date and share price information was obtained on March 17, 2025, using TradingView’s stock screener, and all companies listed had market caps above C$5 million at that time. Read on to learn more about their activities.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 216.67 percent
Market cap: C$60.34 million
Share price: C$0.285
Leading Edge Materials is developing a portfolio of critical materials projects in the European Union to supply materials for advanced technologies such as lithium-ion batteries and permanent magnets for EVs and wind power generation. The company's projects include its wholly owned Woxna graphite mine and the Norra Kärr heavy rare earth elements project in Sweden, and the 51 percent owned Bihor Sud nickel-cobalt exploration alliance in Romania.
After starting the year at C$0.09, shares of Leading Edge Materials reached a year-to-date high of C$0.30 on February 27.
Much of that stellar gain can be attributed to the spotlight placed on Europe's need to secure domestic supplies of graphite and rare earth materials, which are critical to the region's clean technology and defense industries. In mid-February, Leading Edge Materials notified the market that it is updating a 2022 study that evaluated processing plant upgrades study at its "production-ready" Woxna graphite mine to support project financing discussions.
Earlier that month, Leading Edge announced it expects a decision by the end of March 2025 on the application for Strategic Project status for its Norra Kärr rare earths project. The company plans to initiate work on a pre-feasibility study at Norra Kärr in Q2 2025 with the purpose of evaluating the business case for a rapid development plan for the project.
As for Leading Edge's cobalt asset, the Bihor Sud nickel-cobalt project is a brownfield early-stage exploration project at which field work over the past year has identified strong potential for the discovery of a significant polymetallic deposit. The company says its goal at the project is "to define a large-scale, mineable mineral resource."
As of February 2025, exploration work planned for 2025 at Bihor Sud includes mapping and sampling of cobalt-nickel and zinc-lead-silver mineralized zones detected visually and by hand-held XRF, as well as drilling to target polymetallic mineralization.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 50 percent
Market cap: C$8.98 million
Share price: C$0.075
Battery Mineral Resources is mainly focused on becoming a mid-tier copper producer. The company commenced mine and mill operations in May of 2024 at its Punitaqui mining complex in Chile. The mine is a historic copper-gold-silver producer. Its portfolio also includes cobalt assets in Ontario, Canada, and Idaho, US, along with one lithium asset Nevada, US, and two graphite assets in South Korea.
Shares in Battery Mineral Resources nearly tripled in the first few weeks of 2025 to hit a year-to-date high of C$0.14 on January 14. That same day, the company shared positive drill core assay results from its 2024 underground exploration and in-fill drill program at the Punitaqui copper mine.
The company's Ontario cobalt exploration properties are located in a region known for historic cobalt and silver production in the 20th century, and its Idaho-based cobalt properties are located in the historic Blackbird cobalt-copper mine district, adjacent to Jervois Global's (TSXV:JRV) Ram deposit. No work is currently underway on these properties.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 31.6 percent
Market cap: C$48.11 billion
Share price: C$108.56
Wheaton Precious Metals is one of the largest gold and silver royalty and streaming companies. It has investments in 18 operating mines and 28 development projects across four continents, including a cobalt streaming agreement for Vale's (NYSE:VALE) Voisey’s Bay nickel mine in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada.
The company reported its Q4 2024 and full-year 2024 financial performance on March 13. The report highlighted record revenues of US$381 million for Q4 and US$1.285 billion for the full year of 2024.
The company states in the financial report that 2 percent of its Q4 revenue was attributed to its Voisey’s Bay cobalt stream. Wheaton also reported an impairment charge of US$109 million at December 31, 2024, in relation to the carrying value of its Voisey’s Bay agreement “due to a significant and sustained decline in market cobalt prices.”
Shares in Wheaton hit a year-to-date high of C$108.56 on March 17 as the price of gold broke above US$3,000 per ounce and reached record highs.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 8.45 percent
Market cap: C$67.85 million
Share price: C$0.77
Nickel 28 Capital is a battery-metals royalty company with a portfolio of 11 nickel and cobalt royalties on development and exploration projects across Canada, Australia and Papua New Guinea. The company’s largest asset is its 8.56 percent interest in the producing Ramu nickel-cobalt mine in Papua New Guinea.
Nickel 28 Capital’s share price reached a year-to-date high of C$0.86 on February 6, following the release of its Q4 and full-year 2024 operating performance for the Ramu nickel-cobalt mine. Highlights of the report included Q4 and full year 2024 sales of contained cobalt in mixed hydroxide precipitate totaling 488 metric tons and 2,793 metric tons, respectively.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 6.38 percent
Market cap: C$80.19 million
Share price: C$0.25
FPX Nickel is currently advancing its Decar nickel district in British Columbia, Canada. The property comprises four key targets, with the Baptiste deposit being the primary focus, alongside the Van target. The company also has three other nickel projects in BC and one in the Yukon, Canada. While nickel extraction is its main focus, it plans to produce cobalt as a by-product from future mining operations at the Baptiste site.
FPX Nickel had a series of positive news releases in the first few months of 2025. In mid-January, FPX announced the positive results of a third-party economic impact study on the Baptiste nickel project based on its 2023 pre-feasibility study.
"The Baptiste Project has tremendous potential, and we are excited to see what the future holds. Together, we are creating opportunities, collaborating with First Nations to the benefit of all, and advancing projects that could be the critical minerals mines of tomorrow," stated Jagrup Brar, British Columbia’s Minister for Mining and Critical Minerals, in the press release.
On February 18, FPX Nickel shared its planned activities for 2025 at Baptiste as it prepares for the environmental assessment process, which the company hopes to enter in the second half of the year. The following week, FPX released results from a positive scoping study for the development of a refinery aimed at producing battery-grade nickel sulphate, along with cobalt, copper and ammonium sulphate by-products.
Shares of FPX spiked to a year-to-date high of C$0.28 on March 7.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: FPX Nickel is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
Graphite Market Forecast: Top Trends for Graphite in 2025
The natural graphite market faced pressure in 2024 as supply and demand trends created a deficit.
As the year progressed, slower-than-forecast end-use segment demand, production uncertainty and moderate investment in capacity growth outside of China remained the dominant sector themes.
A late-year recovery in global electric vehicle (EV) sales and a positive long-term demand outlook have positioned the graphite market for a mild recovery in 2025. However, with China dominating global supply, factors such as geopolitical tensions, export restrictions and policy changes could quickly alter the landscape.
“The risks to relying on China have really been highlighted over the last year. (In December 2023), China announced export licenses for graphite products," James Willoughby, senior research analyst for graphite, energy transition and battery raw materials at Wood Mackenzie, explained to the Investing News Network (INN).
"While they didn’t amount to much overall, China has once again threatened to tighten export controls this year, which could prevent battery anode producers receiving the raw materials required."
The synthetic graphite market is less exposed to Chinese disruption as it is less geographically concentrated.
“Although synthetic graphite producers are better off, natural graphite anode producers are almost completely reliant on China, so there’s a lot of concern around this at the moment,” Willoughby added.
Even though the Wood Mackenzie expert doesn’t foresee China limiting exports, incoming rules on US imports are adding pressure on North America to grow its domestic supply chain. “While we expect China to continue to allow battery-related exports, companies are looking to diversify their supply to reduce the risk,” he said.
“On top of this, there is a need to shift away from China for the US battery supply chain. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) specifies that by 2027, any batteries that contain graphite from China won’t be eligible for substantial tax credits. While it’s not clear which of these will remain under the new administration, we expect the requirements for non-Chinese material to continue.”
Graphite market facing dual supply challenges
Natural graphite production ballooned in 2022, when global mine supply reached 1,680,000 metric tons, a 73.9 percent increase from 2020’s 966,000 metric tons. Global output then registered a small 4.6 percent decline in 2023, totaling 1,600,000 metric tons; however, the reduction was enough to send the market into deficit.
According to Tony Alderson, senior analyst for Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the shortfall in the graphite sector has been attributed to rising demand from the battery anode segment.
“EV demand is set to rise by nearly 400 percent over the next decade. As such, the need for both natural and synthetic graphite is rising notably in line with this,” Alderson wrote in an email to INN.
“With regards to this increased demand, the natural graphite balance is already not holding up, with a 2024 deficit of nearly 150,000 metric tons per annum (tpa) emerging.”
Conversely, the synthetic graphite market is experiencing a supply glut.
“On the side of synthetic graphite, it is faring a little better when talking about the market balance as supply is stronger. The market is in a notable oversupply of 350,000 tpa, which is set to reach a deficit beyond the end of the decade,” Alderson commented. “One of the reasons for this chemistry disparity is due to the greater supply and ease of building a facility in a far (shorter) time period than with natural (graphite).”
Although the 2025 supply narrative is different, the future of both markets looks similar, Alderson noted.
“Despite this, the currently announced supply is simply not enough to meet the forecasted demand out to 2034, with both (segments) reaching deficits of over 600,000 tpa, which are only set to widen out to 2040,” he said.
In a 2022 report, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence notes that some 300 new mines are needed to support the energy transition, a percentage of which will need to be graphite mines.
“We forecast battery sector demand for raw material graphite to rise by more than 1,400 percent between 2020 and 2050,” it states. “By the end of the forecast period, total graphite demand could be three times the 2021 supply level.”
Shifting battery chemistries complicate forecast
Use in the EV sector is underpinning graphite demand; however, as battery chemistries continue to shift, experts believe supply and demand fundamentals for the commodity could change.
The rapid evolution of battery chemistries has posed significant challenges. While the shift in cathode materials from nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) to lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) in China has garnered much attention, similar transformations are also occurring within the anode market, explained Willoughby.
“China now primarily uses synthetic graphite anode materials as it’s faster to build out new production and easier to get the raw materials,” he said. “However, that has led to a massive oversupply for synthetic due to the number of new companies in the market, and in the natural (graphite market) demand has really fallen away in the last year.”
While NMC cathodes and natural graphite anodes are still quite popular outside of China, slower demand growth in 2024 has seen many of the major anode producers cut back output, he added.
Looking longer term, Willoughby admitted that the market could become opaque.
“It’s been a challenge to keep the ever-evolving supply and demand dynamics in check, particularly when the market has to increasingly consider regional regulations like the IRA," the expert noted.
“This highlights that the deeper into the supply chain you go, the more entrenched China’s dominance becomes. They form the backbone of the anode supply chain, and it will be a challenge for the west to break" — Tony Alderson, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
“We see China continuing to operate at a surplus over the next decade because of its existing capacity, but the rest of the world still looks to need more capacity for both natural and synthetic anodes if it wants to meet its own demand.”
This position was reiterated by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence’s Alderson, who referenced the mounting geopolitical tensions between the east and west as a pain point in the long-term ex-China market buildout.
“China dominates not only natural graphite production (76 percent), but also downstream markets, controlling 79 percent of natural graphite anode and 98 percent of synthetic graphite anode supply globally," he said.
“This highlights that the deeper into the supply chain you go, the more entrenched China’s dominance becomes. They form the backbone of the anode supply chain, and it will be a challenge for the west to break.”
Alderson pointed to China’s December 3, 2024, implementation of an immediate ban on dual-use exports intended for US military applications, along with heightened end-use reviews for exports like graphite to the US.
Building a North American supply pipeline
To offset Chinese control, the US has taken notable steps to create onshore supply.
“Since the US IRA’s announcement in August 2022, over 500,000 tpa of anode capacity has been added, (which is) over a 200 percent+ increase,” said Alderson.
This move has been supported by government funding.
In November, 2023 South Star Battery Metals (TSXV:STS,OTCQB:STSBF), received a US$3.2 million grant from the Department of Defense (DoD) under the IRA to advance its flagship BamaStar graphite project in Alabama.
Similarly, Graphite One’s (TSXV:GPH,OTCQX:GPHOF) Alaska-focused subsidiary received a US$37.5 million DoD grant in July 2023 to cover costs associated with an accelerated feasibility study on the Graphite Creek project.
In September of the same year, Graphite One penned a US$4.7 million contract with the DoD’s Logistics Agency to develop a graphite- and graphene-based foam fire suppressant.
“Private companies are also ramping up onshoring efforts by inking offtake agreements with US anode producers, setting a record in 2024 for such deals,” Alderson explained to INN. “Despite these advancements, North America faces a 200,000 tpa market deficit in 2024, expected to grow as EV demand accelerates. As such, notable investment will be required to drive growth and achieve any form of self-sufficiency,” he added.
As new North American supply becomes imperative, the sole continental producer, Northern Graphite (TSXV:NGC,OTCQB), faced challenges in the low-price environment of 2024.
“While we are also moving forward to open a new pit at LDI and restart the plant at a higher throughput in January to meet rising demand, unless we can see our way through to higher prices, long-term supply agreements with battery makers and support from governments in Ontario, Quebec, Canada and/or the United States, the Company will continue to struggle whilst these challenging market conditions prevail for ourselves and the rest of the industry,” CEO Hugues Jacquemin said in a third quarter update released by the company in late November.
To aid in offsetting these pressures, Northern Graphite was able to negotiate a price increase with its customers in early January 2025 to mitigate inflation and higher production costs.
What trends will drive graphite in 2025?
As 2025 progresses, both market experts offered insight on which trends could be the most impactful.
“We’re expecting more bifurcation of the China and ex-China markets,” Wood Mackenzie’s Willoughby said.
“In 2024, we saw domestic Chinese prices sink much more rapidly and to a greater extent than export prices,” he said. “We expect them to remain low in 2025, but for US and European benchmarks to begin to climb again as the shift away from China as their major supplier creates tightness in that market.”
The volume needed in North America is likely to provide price insulation for graphite produced outside of China.
“Given the relative lack of ex-China mines, new production isn’t expected to dent this outlook too much,” he added.
For Alderson, volatility will reign supreme in the first half of 2025.
“Excess inventory overhang of battery-grade -100 mesh is expected to sustain high supply levels through 2025 despite forecasted reduction in production costs within the Chinese market,” he said. “Consequently, prices are forecasted to decline further in H1 2025, averaging US$413 per metric ton, down 22 percent year-over-year.”
He sees more stability materializing in the latter half of the year.
“In H2 2025, prices are set to recover moderately as inventories shrink and stock levels normalize, with China's overall production experiencing a gradual recovery,” he said. “However, ongoing competition from synthetic graphite for battery end-use applications will likely cap price growth.”
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: NextSource Materials and E-Power Resources are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Top 3 Canadian Graphite Stocks
Graphite prices have experienced volatility recently due to bottlenecks in demand for electric vehicles (EVs).
One major factor experts are watching right now is the trade war between China and the US.
China introduced export restrictions on certain graphite products on December 1, 2023, making it a requirement for Chinese exporters to apply for special permits to ship the material to global markets.
In May 2024, the Biden administration in the US announced it would raise tariffs on foreign EVs and batteries.
“The tariff rate on natural graphite and permanent magnets will increase from zero to 25 percent in 2026,” the statement reads. “The tariff rate for certain other critical minerals will increase from zero to 25 percent in 2024.”
With tariff-loving Donald Trump set to take the reins in January 2025, market watchers believe those tariffs could become even harsher. These dynamics will likely encourage the development of more ex-China graphite supply sources.
As Dr. Nils Backeberg, co-founder and director of market intelligence firm Project Blue, told the Investing News Network in December 2023, graphite-mining companies are already "securing funding from US and EU government initiatives to develop their mine projects and battery-grade anode material plants to develop supply chains outside China.”
Another trend shaping the graphite market in 2024 has been increasing substitution of natural graphite with synthetic in battery anode production; this came in response to Chinese exports restrictions and US tariffs on natural graphite.
This has led to much lower prices for natural graphite this year, and against that backdrop, many Canadian graphite stocks have trended downward. However, several graphite-focused companies have seen strong performances this year.
Below is a look at the year’s best-performing graphite stocks on the TSXV and CSE; TSX companies were considered, but none made the cut this time. Data was obtained on November 29, 2024, using TradingView’s stock screener, and all companies listed had market caps above C$10 million at that time. Read on to learn more about their work this year.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 75 percent
Market cap: C$38.95 million
Share price: C$0.175
HydroGraph Clean Power produces cost-effective, high-purity graphene, hydrogen and other strategic nanomaterials.
Graphene, a pure carbon material extracted from graphite, has myriad potential applications in industries such as transport, solar cells, medicine, electronics, energy, defense and desalination. HydroGraph has an exclusive license from Kansas State University to produce graphene and hydrogen through the organization's patented detonation process.
The company's achievements through the year have had a positive impact on its share price.
In April, Hydrograph inked a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Khalifa University of Science and Technology’s Research and Innovation Center in Graphene and 2D Materials in the United Arab Emerits to develop and commercialize graphene applications in cement, concrete, lubricants and energy storage and composites.
That same month, the company's flagship graphene product, FGA-1, was chosen by hardware company Volfpack Energy to be the base material of its supercapacitor technology, aimed at increasing adoption of renewable energy across Asia.
The following month, HydroGraph secured another strategic MoU, this time with Gulf Cryo, which provides industrial, medical and specialty gas solutions in the Middle East and Africa. Shares of Hydrograph more than doubled during this time period to a year-to-date high of C$0.20 for the first time on May 17.
The company went on to close an oversubscribed private placement totaling C$3.6 million in mid-June.
Although Hydrograph's share price dipped back into the C$0.10 to C$0.12 range for much of the third quarter, the company had a series of news releases in the fall that pushed its value back toward its high for the year.
In late October, Hydrograph extended its nanomaterials research partnership with the University of Manchester’s Graphene Engineering Innovation Center. The following week, the company announced the partners had made an important breakthrough with the discovery that its FGA-1 graphene product was able to increase the performance of bottles with reduced use of non-recycled plastic in the global polyethylene terephthalate packaging industry.
On November 20, Hydrograph received a purchase order for research quantities of four novel graphene products from a global automotive industry customer. Automotive composites represent a significant growth market for graphene.
This news was followed soon after by the announcement of new collaborations with Volfpack Energy and NEI, a supplier of specialty materials to the battery industry.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 13.01 percent
Market cap: C$174.83 million
Share price: C$1.65
Zentek is a technology company developing graphene-based products for commercial partners.
The cornerstone of the firm's intellectual property portfolio is its patented technology platform ZenGUARD, which has displayed 99 percent effective antimicrobial properties, significantly increasing the viral filtration efficiency for surgical masks. The company is working to incorporate this technology into HVAC systems. In addition, Zentek fully owns the rights to the Albany graphite deposit in Ontario, Canada, through its subsidiary Albany Graphite.
The company’s year-to-date share price high came early in the year, when it reached C$2.11 on January 8. Zentek shares then embarked on a slow but steady declining trend for much of the year.
This was despite positive news, including a distribution agreement with DCL Supply for ZenGuard-enhanced air filters; the granting of second US patent for the active graphene-based ingredient in its ZenGuard products; the achievement of 99.99915 percent purity for a graphite sample from the Albany graphite deposit; and the release of positive preliminary battery results, which coincided with the expansion of a research collaboration with the University of Toronto.
Zentek’s share price took a turn for the better in the fourth quarter of the year, rising as high as C$1.79 on November 18. This increase followed news of increasing demand for ZenGuard antimicrobial surgical masks following a Canada-wide sampling program among dental professionals.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 6.25 percent
Market cap: C$14.4 million
Share price: C$0.085
Black Swan Graphene describes itself as an emerging powerhouse in the bulk graphene business.
The company is a spinout of Mason Resources (TSXV:LLG,OTCQX:MGPHF), which owns the Uatnan graphite project in Québec and holds a 39 percent stake in Black Swan. Graphite from Uatnan is used to supply Black Swan.
UK-based global chemicals manufacturer Thomas Swan & Co. holds a 15 percent interest in Black Swan, and brings a portfolio of patents and intellectual property related to graphene production. Through this partnership, Black Swan is building out a fully integrated supply chain of mine-to-graphene products.
Black Swan’s share price so far this year has benefited from the launch of a number of new graphene products, such as its GraphCore 01 family of graphene nanoplatelets products. Announced in April, these products include powders and polymer-ready masterbatches designed for the polymer industry.
Shares of Black Swan reached their highest year-to-date price of C$0.15 on June 19 after the announcement of a commercial partnership with advanced materials engineering company Graphene Composites. It will see Black Swan’s graphene used in the fabrication of GC Shield, a patented ballistic protection technology.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Vanadium Market Forecast: Top Trends for Vanadium in 2025
The vanadium market is set to shift in 2025, driven by demand from the energy storage and steel sectors.
Energy storage systems that utilize vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs) are gaining traction as renewable energy deployment accelerates, boosting demand for high-purity vanadium. However, global supply remains constrained due to limited mining projects and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in China and Russia, key producers.
Environmental regulations and advances in recycling technology may also influence supply dynamics, and market observers are watching potential price volatility tied to steel demand, the largest end use of vanadium globally.
In September 2024, China introduced new rebar standards that are anticipated to boost high-quality vanadium demand.
“Production of rebar with the new standards will increase per annum vanadium nitrogen consumption by roughly 15 percent,” a July Fastmarkets report notes. “That calculation is based on China’s 2023 rebar production volume.”
“Vanadium demand in steel alloys will rise in 2025 due to change in Chinese rebar standards. However, expected demand rise in steel will not be as high as estimated from battery manufacturing in the medium term due to slowdown in the Chinese construction industry,” said Piyush Goel, commodities consultant at CRU Group, via email.
“Vanadium demand in batteries is estimated to rise rapidly; this rise in demand will primarily come from China due to targeted government policies towards VRFBs," he told the Investing News Network (INN).
China, which is the leading producer of vanadium, is also expected to drive global demand in the year ahead.
“Rise in vanadium demand in the medium term (til 2029) is estimated to be heavily concentrated in China, because we estimate VRFB demand to pick up faster in China compared to other regions,” he said. “Similarly, Chinese rebar standards also changed — requiring higher-vanadium-intensity steel. Due to the rapid rise in domestic vanadium demand, China is likely to become a net importer of vanadium as the Chinese market goes into deficit from surplus.”
Vanadium demand faces rebar challenges, with limited boost from batteries
Even though Fastmarkets is calling for a 15 percent uptick in vanadium demand for rebar, this will only bring demand back up to previous levels. As Erik Sardain, principal analyst for Project Blue, explained, China’s weak construction market has caused a 15 percent year-on-year decline in domestic rebar construction.
Despite positivity in the VRFB space, Sardain doesn’t expect this to offset lower rebar demand.
“No, no, no, no, absolutely not. If you want to look worldwide, you can say that steel in general is something like 90 percent (of vanadium demand),” Sardain said in a December interview with INN.
The expert went on to point out that quantifying the amount of vanadium used in batteries and energy storage is challenging. He also questioned demand trend forecasts from the battery segment.
“I think the market got it wrong for one main reason, because the market is assuming that the vanadium redox battery for the storage system is going to be something worldwide,” he said.
"We are estimating a global supply deficit in 2025 due to change in rebar standards and rise in vanadium battery demand, causing vanadium prices to rise" — Piyush Goel, CRU Group
“And at Project Blue, we don't think it's going to be global. We think it's going to be primarily China.”
He attributes this to the types of installations utilizing VRFB energy storage systems, telling INN that China is using the technology to power grids, while other countries are using it for small-scale applications.
Taking a more optimistic and long-term view, CRU’s Goel sees more viability in the battery and energy storage segments.
“VRFBs will have a considerable impact on the vanadium industry through the next two decades, but will play a minor role in the energy storage space — accounting for only 3.5 percent of total battery energy storage installations by 2035,” said Goel. “Although VRFBs will make up a small portion of total energy storage, they are significant consumers of vanadium and will consume the majority of global vanadium in 2035, compared to ~6 percent in 2024."
Supply picture blurred by geopolitics
As the Russia-Ukraine war continues and tensions between the US and China grow, many metals have faced volatility. These disruptions have impacted global markets, spurring policymakers to fast track new supply chains.
China’s restrictions on gallium and germanium exports in August 2023 escalated to a complete ban on shipments to the US in December 2024, intensifying global supply concerns.
Potential export caps and tariffs threaten to disrupt already fragile supply chains; however, Goel told INN that he doesn’t foresee these issues impacting the vanadium market.
“Similar trade restrictions are unlikely in vanadium, as most of the recent rise in vanadium demand is coming from China, which means China is likely to become a net importer if no new capacity is opened,” he said.
“This also means that should China become import reliant for a meaningful share of vanadium, which is to be used in two significant national industries (steel and energy storage), vanadium will move up in criticality matrices for China — moving nearer to materials like iron ore, potash and high-purity quartz.”
As demand in China picks up, Sardain anticipates the Asian nation will ramp up production. “With the current geopolitical environment, there is absolutely no way that China is going to rely on imports of vanadium,” he noted.
According to Goel, China isn’t the only country that is looking to be less reliant on imports. “Governments worldwide have recognized vanadium as a critical mineral, leading to increased support for emerging vanadium projects,” he said.
He referenced Australian company Vecco Group, which received an AU$3.8 million grant to advance the feasibility and design of a high-purity vanadium project in Brisbane.
“However, such grants are not enough to bring a project from conception to production. The current low vanadium pricing environment is a barrier to increasing ex-China capacity,” he added.
Australia to dominate growing vanadium supply capacity
While China will dominate the vanadium narrative in 2025, Australia is positioning to become a production hub.
In addition to getting its AU$3.8 million grant, Vecco’s project was granted coordinated project status by the Queensland government this past July. The status designation streamlines approvals for major developments with significant impacts, centralizing assessments and enabling public consultation.
In late December, explorer and developer QEM (ASX:QEM) also received coordinated project status from Queensland for its Julia Creek vanadium and energy project. According to a July release, a scoping study completed for Julia Creek affirms the company’s aim to produce approximately 10,571 metric tons of 99.95 percent pure vanadium pentoxide and 313 million liters of transport fuel annually over a 30 year mine life.
In mid-January, Australian Vanadium (ASX:AVL,OTC Pink:ATVVF) was granted environmental approval for its Gabanintha vanadium project in Western Australia. The approval covers a mine, concentrator, processing plant and supporting infrastructure, including a bore field and camp. The company is updating its optimized feasibility study to integrate Gabanintha into its Australian Vanadium project, one of the largest and highest-grade vanadium deposits.
How will the vanadium price perform in 2025?
Underscoring the weakness in the vanadium market, Sardain recounted factors impeding price growth.
He explained that despite several elements that should have boosted demand, the market remains surprisingly weak. Chinese monetary stimulus measures and stricter rebar standard enforcement failed to drive prices higher.
Russian vanadium pentoxide exports to China have dried up, and supply uncertainties persist in South Africa.
These conditions, which typically would have supported price increases for the battery metal, have instead had little impact, highlighting the subdued demand, especially in China.
“To be really honest, I was expecting the market to pick up in the second half of 2024,” he said.
“I was expecting this to happen, because I was looking at the interest rate in Europe, the (European Central Bank) cutting interest rates. I was expecting some kind of recovery for the European economy. I was expecting the Chinese government to be more proactive. I was expecting the property market in China to stabilize. So I was expecting some kind of rebound in the second half, which didn't take place," Sardain explained to INN.
Although the market didn’t perform to expectations in 2024, he sees promise in the months ahead.
“I think that the market is currently bottoming out. I believe that we are very close to the stabilization of the property market in China. Whether it's going to happen in Q1 or Q2 I don't know, but maybe (there will be) some kind of very, very, very mild recovery in the second half (of the year),” he said.
Highlighting the market’s positive fundamentals, CRU’s Goel said he sees a price rebound in 2025.
“We are estimating a global supply deficit in 2025 due to change in rebar standards and rise in vanadium battery demand, causing vanadium prices to rise,” said Goel. “As more supply comes online in 2026 and 2027, by 2027 vanadium prices will come down when compared to 2025 prices, but crucially remain higher than the pricing in the last 12 months.”
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Manganese Market Forecast: Top Trends for Manganese in 2025
The manganese market was impacted by various factors in 2024, including growing demand for battery applications, geopolitical risk, production disruptions and strategic investments.
Positive demand from the electric vehicle (EV) sector offered support as automakers increasingly turned to manganese-rich chemistries like lithium-manganese-iron-phosphate (LMFP) to cut costs and reduce reliance on nickel and cobalt.
Meanwhile, supply chain vulnerabilities emerged due to political instability in major producing regions and heightened environmental scrutiny. In response, nations such as the US and Australia accelerated investments in refining facilities to reduce dependence on China and secure their EV battery supply chains.
Later in the year, oversupply from weaker-than-expected Chinese steel demand muted price growth in the space.
“Manganese sulphate prices turned bearish in Q4 … with slow spot buying in China and the effects of weather-related mine supply disruptions in Australia,” a Fastmarkets report from December reads.
Despite these challenges, the firm foresees a recovery in the manganese market in the years ahead.
“We expect demand to grow from now and into the 2030s, driven in part by new chemistries like LMFP,” Fastmarkets notes. In the short to mid-term, China’s supply base looks set to fulfil global needs of high purity manganese, though there is likely to be a long-term need for a greater high purity manganese capacity.”
Oversupply dampens manganese prices
Clare Hanna, senior steel analyst at CRU Group, recounted the most impactful 2024 trends for manganese.
“The key drivers in 2024 were the outage at South32’s (ASX:S32,OTC Pink:SHTLF)Groote Eylandt mine, the surge in alternative supplies and the weak state of Chinese demand,” she said.
“This led prices to first rise very sharply and then plummet as the market oversupply became apparent.”
South32 — the world’s largest manganese producer — saw operations suspended at its Australia-based Groote Eylandt mine in March due to a tropical cyclone. A phased return to mining began in June of last year; however, the severity of flooding due to the cyclone has impacted a wharf and the company’s ability to export.
In a statement, South32 said it expects exports to resume in its fiscal Q3 2025 ending March 31.
"The key drivers in 2024 were the outage at South32’s Groote Eylandt mine, the surge in alternative supplies and the weak state of Chinese demand" — Clare Hanna, CRU Group
Some of this reduced 2024 output was offset by purchase declines in China. As Hanna explained, Chinese demand was weak due to lower demand for steel rebar, which was driven by weakness in the Chinese real estate sector.
Prices for manganese ore could face headwinds in the year ahead as South32 continues to ramp up Groote Eylandt.
“The return of South32 to the market and the increase in high-grade supply could be a challenge, given the Chinese real estate market is not expected to improve significantly. Steel demand and production in other markets is forecast to improve,” Hanna explained to INN.
Key manganese demand drivers for 2025
Prized for their high energy density, automakers are increasingly turning to manganese-based batteries for their cost-effectiveness and reduced reliance on expensive metals like nickel and cobalt.
That said, as Hanna pointed out, the majority of manganese demand is still attributed to the steel sector.
“There is a lot of noise in the market about manganese usage in EV batteries, driven in part by companies looking for finance, and also because downstream, the processing of manganese ore for battery-grade manganese products is heavily concentrated in China at the moment," she said. “However, it is worth recognizing that in terms of manganese ore demand, the share that is going into EV supply chains is very small.”
The senior analyst went on to note that those dynamics are likely to shift in the coming years.
“While (EV sector) volume is growing and the demand from the steel sector is likely to decline over time, demand from steel supply chains will remain the dominant source of manganese ore demand, and therefore the biggest demand-side influence on manganese ore prices,” said Hanna.
She went on to explain why EV market usage has come to dominate the manganese narrative.
“When looking for investment, companies like to align their projects with growing market sectors, so when companies are talking about new mine investments, they often reference the EV supply chain — even if in practice, most of the ore will likely go to ferroalloy producers for consumption in steel production.”
New manganese sources outside of China
Like so many of the battery metals, the manganese supply chain is dominated by China, a factor many western nations are grappling with. In an effort to bolster supply outside of China, significant investments were made in 2024.
“What we are seeing is a number of projects aimed at producing high-purity manganese sulfate monohydrate (HPMSM) outside of China (in order to) reduce OEM EV battery supply chain risk, or take advantage of the benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act. Some of these are aligned with new or existing upstream mines,” said Hanna.
Although the plan looks good on paper, the CRU steel specialist pointed out the challenges of building HPMSM supply independent of China. She noted that operational plants are a couple of years off at minimum.
“Production of HPMSM is a chemical process, so existing producers of manganese metal or other manganese chemicals would be able to move into this product area more easily than ferroalloy producers, although there are still a lot of technical challenges. There are no ferroalloy producers outside of China moving to produce HPMSM," Hanna added.
Some of the projects in the pipeline include the Manganese Metal Company’s HPMSM Metal to Crystal project in South Africa. Described as a more sustainable process, the Metal to Crystal production method will start with a 5,000 metric ton per annum plant in 2028, followed by a 30,000 metric ton per annum plant, targeted beyond 2030.
In addition to that, Hanna spoke about South32’s Arizona-based Hermosa manganese-zinc project, which received a US$20 million grant from the US Department of Defense in May 2024. The monies have been earmarked for the acceleration of domestic production of battery-grade manganese.
Manganese processing plants have also attracted US government funding.
In September, Element 25 (ASX:E25:OTCQX:ELMT) secured a US$166 million grant from the US Department of Energy under the Battery Materials Processing Grant Program.
The funding will support the construction of the firm’s HPMSM facility in Louisiana. The grant is in addition to US$115 million already secured from offtake partners General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Stellantis (NYSE:STLA).
The feedstock for the Louisiana plant will originate from Element 25’s Butcherbird mine in Australia. In November, the company released a new resource estimate for the planned expansion at Butcherbird.
According to the company, the new estimate registers a 142 percent increase in measured and indicated resources, which now total 130 million metric tons at 10.23 percent manganese.
Additionally, the site hosts a total resource of 274 million metric tons at 10 percent manganese.
Hanna also referenced Euro Manganese (TSXV:EMN,OTCQB:EUMNF), which is developing a project in the Czech Republic using manganese from old mine tailings, as well as looking at plans for a plant in Québec, Canada.
“Firebird Metals (ASX:FRB,OTC Pink:FRBMF) (in) Australia, has adopted an alternative approach,” she said. “They are partnering with a Chinese group to build an HPMSM plant in China, which could eventually be supplied with ore from an Australian mine.”
What trends will drive manganese in 2025?
While these supply chain diversification efforts aim to secure and steady output, Hanna warned of trends to watch in 2025. Top of mind is South32’s Groote Eylandt mine and its ability to restart shipments.
In South Africa, she highlighted national rail operator Transnet's plans for expansion.
“Transnet’s plans for the new port and rail infrastructure at Coega in South Africa are still some way off,” said Hanna. “The company’s performance on the existing rail network and ability to open up the routes beyond traditional miners will influence how much ore needs to be moved via the higher cost rail route.”
Plans remain distant, while inefficiencies in the existing rail network could raise transport costs.
Meanwhile, manganese producer Eramet (EPA:ERA), has faced challenges to its production expansion plans at the Moanda project in Gabon. Hanna noted that Gabon’s production expansion in Moanda faces delays due to weak demand, compounded by past disruptions from railway landslides.
“These (plans) were slowed in Q4 by weak demand,” she said. “Work continues on improvements to the Trans Gabon Railway. Landslides and derailments in the past have disrupted supply causing ore price volatility.”
A resolution to the war in Ukraine could also serve as a catalyst to the 2025 supply and demand story.
“Historically, Ukraine was a significant producer and consumer of manganese alloys. Both have been slowed by the war. In the event of a ceasefire this year, supply is likely to return faster than demand as the large Mauripol steel plant was destroyed during the Russian invasion,” she added.
According to Hanna, key areas to watch as the year progresses are trade actions and carbon taxes.
These include the US investigation into ferrosilicon imports from several countries, as well as potential broad tariffs from the incoming Trump administration.
Elsewhere, the EU’s probe into manganese alloys and ferrosilicon may raise regional prices
“The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is due to come in at the beginning of 2026. Ferromanganese is covered, silicomanganese is not," said Hanna. “There is a lot of uncertainty about the impact of this.”
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Metals Australia
Company Highlights
- Metals Australia is rapidly advancing its flag ship Lac Carheil Graphite Project in Quebec, Canada. In addition, the company has a suite of high-quality exploration projects – including Lithium, Gold and Silver in Quebec, Canada and Lithium, Gold, Copper & Vanadium in Western Australia (WA) and the Northern Territory (NT).
- All projects are in Tier-1 mining jurisdictions (Canada and Australia) with world-class prospectivity and stable geo-politically.
- The company has six key exploration and development projects:
- two in Canada: the Lac Carheil high-grade flake graphite project and the Corvette River lithium and gold-silver-copper exploration project, and,
- four in Australia: Warrambie (lithium, nickel-copper, gold), Murchison (gold) and Manindi (lithium, vanadium-titanium, zinc-silver) in WA, and Tennant Creek (Warrego East copper-gold) in the NT.
- The focus is to rapidly advance its flagship Lac Carheil Graphite Project towards development. A drilling program is already contracted to substantially increase the existing JORC 2012 Mineral Resource of 13.3 Mt @ 11.5 percent graphitic carbon (Cg) and test the potential of the many other identified high-grade graphite trends.
- The 2020 Scoping Study on Lac Carheil based on the existing resource, representing only 1km of drilling out of the total 36kms of identified graphite trends, indicates a 14-year mine life with a production of 100,000 tons per annum and a pre-tax NPV @ 8 percent of US$123 million (~AUD$190 million).
- There are multiple catalysts at Lac Carheil in the near term including a pre-feasibility study (PFS) (underway), a scoping study on downstream battery (anode) - grade graphite production, and planned drilling aiming to at least double the resource as well as test other identified high-grade graphite trends.
- Furthermore, other projects in Canada including the Corvette River lithium and gold targets, and exploration in Australia at Manindi, Warrambie, Murchison and Warrego – are all seeing active progress.
- The company is well-funded to complete all its planned exploration and project studies. The cash position at the end of Q1 2024 was AU$17.86 million.
- Metals Australia is led by a seasoned board and management team possessing extensive mining sector experience and a proven track record of successful discoveries and project developments. With funding in place, the company is well-positioned to capitalise on growth prospects.
Figure 1 – Location of Metals Australia’s projects in the Tier 1 Mining Jurisdictions in Quebec, Canada and Australia’s Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
Overview
Metals Australia (ASX:
MLS) is a mineral exploration company with a high-quality portfolio of advanced battery minerals and metals projects in Tier 1 mining jurisdictions of Western Australia and Canada. The portfolio comprises two critical minerals projects in Quebec, Canada — the Lac Carheil flake graphite project and the Corvette River lithium (and gold) project. The Australian portfolio comprises four projects: Tennant Creek (copper-gold) in the Northern Territory and Warrambie (lithium, nickel-copper, gold), Murchison (gold) and Manindi (lithium, vanadium-titanium, zinc) – all in Western Australia.
The push for net zero targets and the call from policymakers to transition to cleaner energy has intensified the focus on electric vehicles (EVs) and battery storage. The EV automakers and
battery manufacturers, rely on essential materials such as graphite and metals, including lithium, nickel, copper and cobalt, to manufacture the batteries that are used in these vehicles and storage batteries generally. This has driven carmakers and battery manufacturers to partner with battery material suppliers under direct off-take agreements. Further, some automakers/battery manufacturers are buying equity stakes in miners, involving them directly in financing decisions for the development of mining projects. This is encouraging for companies such as Metals Australia as it actively advances its projects towards development.
Figure 2 – Graphite is a Critical Mineral required for the mass electrification of auto transportation.
Metals Australia is focused on progressing its flagship Lac Carheil flake graphite project in Quebec, Canada. The project is well-positioned to supply high quality graphite products, including battery-grade graphite to the North American market – including for lithium-ion and EV battery production in the future. The company announced positive sampling results across a 36-km strike length of identified graphite trends at Lac Carheil, including many values over 20% Cg and an exceptionally high-grade sample containing over 63% Cg. The company has planned a drilling program to test new high-grade zones identified from the sampling program, which will form the basis for upgrading the existing Lac Carheil Mineral Resource. An application for the drilling program is progressing with the Quebec regulator. Additionally, the company has recently commenced a Flake Graphite concentrate prefeasibility study with Lycopodium in Ontario and a downstream battery anode plant design with ANZAPLAN in Germany.
Metals Australia is also advancing its lithium, gold and silver exploration project at Corvette River, which is adjacent to Patriot Battery Metals’ world-class lithium project. Further, the company carries out aggressive exploration programs at its other projects, including Manindi, Warrambie & the Murchison in Western Australia and Tennant Creek in the Northern Territory region of Australia.
Metals Australia is well-funded to complete all its planned exploration and project studies. The cash position at the end of Q1 2024 was AU$17.86 million, which we note was higher than the company’s market capital at current share price. Metals Australia benefits from a team of professionals boasting extensive expertise in geology and mining. The appointment of experienced mining executive Paul Ferguson as the CEO is positive for the company. Since joining in January 2024, he has significantly advanced planning and preparation for the exploration, metallurgical test work programs, and design studies required to move its flagship Lac Carheil high-grade graphite project towards development. The Corvette Project has also completed exploration planning and is now fully permitted for drilling and trenching work during the northern hemisphere summer.
Key Projects
Canada
Lac Carheil Flake Graphite Project (MLS 100%)
Conceptual 3D Mining layout from February 2021 Scoping Study (Lac Carheil Project formerly named Lac Rainy Project)
The Lac Carheil Graphite Project is located in eastern Quebec, Canada, a tier 1 mining jurisdiction with access to excellent infrastructure, including hydroelectric power facilities. The project hosts an existing JORC 2012 mineral resource of 13.3 million tons (Mt) @ 11.5 percent graphitic carbon, which was announced in 2020 and a scoping study was completed and reported on in early 2021. Battery test work followed, in Germany, and this demonstrated the Lac Carheil Graphite concentrate could be shaped, purified, coated and used in battery applications with excellent results. Given the above work, the company carried out further field work, recently announcing exceptionally high-grade sampling results from 80 samples on 10 identified graphitic trends across the property. This included a sample containing 63 percent graphitic carbon, and 10 samples containing over 20% Cg. The average grade of the sampling was 11% Cg, which is comparable to the current high-grade resource. The combined strike length of the identified high-grade graphitic zones is over 36 kms. This compares to just 1 km of drilling on 1.6 kms of graphite trend that was utilised to obtain the existing resource. The potential for expanding and upgrading the existing resource remains enormous.
Figure 4 –Lac Carheil Graphite Project - Electromagnetic imagery outlining graphite trends and the resource
Additional drilling and development studies are either planned or are already underway, including a pre-feasibility study for a high grade Flake graphite concentrate product – which has commenced and a downstream purification options assessment and a scoping study for a battery anode facility in North America, which has been contracted. The company also announced it is contract ready for its planned drilling program and will fast-track the program as soon as permits are received from the Quebec regulator.
Corvette River Lithium Project (MLS 100%)
Corvette River Lithium, gold and silver Project is located in Quebec’s James Bay region Metals Australia recently announced that it is fully permitted to advance an extensive field exploration program across its holdings which include the wholly owned East Pontois, Felicie and West Pontois projects, situated within Patriot Battery Metals' (ASX:PMT) CV Lithium Trend, as well as tenements at West and East Eade in the company's parallel Corvette River South Trend. A field mapping and sampling program concluded last year and identified large, potentially lithium-bearing pegmatites immediately along strike from Patriot Battery Metals’ world-class lithium pegmatite discoveries. Additionally, the company has flagged significant gold and silver samples from its review of work previously completed across the field as is illustrated in the diagram below.
Figure 5 – The Corvette Projects in the James Bay region of Canada. Prospective for Lithium, Gold & Silver
Australian Projects
Warrambie Project (MLS 80%)
The Warrambie project is located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. It is 20 kms west of the Andover Lithium discovery (Azure Minerals (ASX:
AZS). Metals Australia has completed geophysical surveys across the area and is identifying targets for further field exploration and drilling.
Warrego East Project (MLS 80%)
Metals Australia acquired the tenements as part of a package purchased from Payne Gully Gold in 2022. The company’s tenements include a granted exploration license (E32725) directly along strike to the east of the Warrego copper-gold deposit, which has a production of 1.45 Million Ounces of gold at 8 grams per tonne and over 90,000 tonnes of Copper at 2%. The Warrego mine operated from the late 1950’s through until 1989. It was found under sedimentary cover. The area and this land package is under detailed review utilizing available geophysical surveys. The company aims to identify further targets hidden under shallow sediment cover.
Big Bell North Project (MLS 80%)
The Murchison tenements were also acquired as part of the Payne Gully Gold transaction. Metals Australia owns exploration licenses at the Murchison gold project, which is adjacent to the >5 million ounces (Moz) Big Bell gold deposit. The company plans to conduct detailed magnetics and gravity surveys to test for extensions and repeats of high-grade gold deposits.
Manindi Project (MLS 80%)
The Manindi project is located in the Murchison District, approximately 500 kms northeast of Perth in Western Australia. The project comprises three mining leases and has an established high-grade zinc mineral resource. The metallurgical test work has located spodumene in samples from a high-grade lithium intersection of 12m @ 1.38 percent lithium oxide, including 3m @ 2.12 percent lithium oxide. The company also made a new vanadium-titanium discovery at the Manindi project.
Management Team
Paul Ferguson – Chief Executive Officer
A Mining Engineer, Paul Ferguson has over three decades of experience in the resources and energy sectors across North America, Asia and Australia. He has extensive project development and operational experience working in Canada. He has worked in oil & gas major ExxonMobil across project stages, including feasibility, design, construction, and operation. He has worked in Executive level roles within Australia, including at GMA Garnet and held increasingly more senior roles with BHP (Iron Ore & Coking Coal) and then with Exxon Coal Minerals and Mobil Oil Australia during the early stages of his career.
Tanya Newby – CFO and Joint Company Secretary
Tanya Newby is a finance and governance professional with over 20 years experience in various corporate and commercial roles. She has a strong background in the resources sector and has provided financial advice and assistance to a number of publicly listed entities through exploration, project development through to the production stage. Tanya is a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants, Member of the Governance Institute of Australia and a Graduate Member of the Institute of Company Directors.
Michael Muhling – Joint Company Secretary
Michael Muhling has over two decades of experience in the resources, including 15 years in senior roles with ASX-listed companies. He is a fellow of CPA Australia, The Chartered Governance Institute, and the Governance Institute of Australia.
John Dugdale – Technical Advisor
John Dugdale is a geologist with over 35 years of experience in the discovery and development of graphite, lithium, gold, nickel and copper projects. His corporate experience includes serving as a director and CEO of several junior resource companies focused on nickel-cobalt, graphite and copper-gold projects. Additionally, he has experience in funds management with Lion Selection Group.
Chris Ramsay – General Manager Geology
Chris Ramsay is a geologist and project manager with over 25 years of experience in the global mining industry. He has been involved in exploration, mine development and operations for mining projects in Australasia, Southeast Asia, and parts of Africa and North America.
Board
Michael Scivolo – Non-executive Chairman
Michael Scivolo has extensive accounting and taxation experience for corporate and non-corporate entities. He was a partner/director at a CPA firm until 2011 and has since been consulting in accounting and taxation. Scivolo is on the boards of several ASX-listed mining companies, including Sabre Resources, Golden Deeps and Tennant Minerals Ltd.
Alexander Biggs – Non-executive Director
Alexander Biggs has over 20 years of experience in the mining and engineering sector. During his career, he has been involved in various activities, including operations, consulting, finance and capital raising. He is currently the managing director of Lightning Minerals (ASX) and was previously the managing director of Critical Resources (ASX:
CRR). Biggs is a member of the Australian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy and a graduate of the Western Australian School of Mines.
Rachelle Domansky – Non-executive Director
Rachelle Domansky is an ESG specialist and a consulting psychologist for businesses, governments and educational institutions in the Asia-Pacific region. In addition to Metals Australia, Rachelle holds non-executive board positions at Quebec Lithium and Access Plus WA Deaf.
Basil Conti – Non-executive Director
Basil Conti has been associated with the mining industry for over 25 years. He is a fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants Australia & NZ and was a partner/director of a chartered accounting firm in West Perth until 2015.
Fortune Minerals
Investor Insights
The NICO project’s receipt of substantial government funding to date and Fortune Minerals’ strong relations with the Indigenous and local communities in the Northwest Territories create a compelling case for investors considering a
battery metals play with significant gold reserves.
Company Highlights
- Fortune Minerals is building a reliable, vertically integrated North American critical minerals project to produce cobalt chemicals for the rapidly expanding lithium-ion battery industry.
- The NICO project is one of a few advanced-stage cobalt projects outside the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with an average annual production of approximately 1,800 tons of cobalt units in the first 14 years of the 20-year mine life.
- The company's flagship asset’s primary cobalt production is independent of nickel and copper mining and contains more than 1 million ounces (Moz) of in-situ co-product gold.
- Fortune Minerals has received environmental assessment approval for the mine, concentrator and access road in the Northwest Territories.
- The company has developed strong relationships with Indigenous and local communities and governments, which paved the way for federal, Northwest Territories and Tlicho Governments' approval of the project and financial support for local infrastructure, including the $400 million Tlicho all-season highway project to Whati that recently opened to the public, and more than $800,000 in federal and provincial funding for exploration work at NICO.
- Collaboration with Rio Tinto to assess options to improve recovery of bismuth and cobalt contained in Rio Tinto’s Kennecott smelter waste streams.
- Fortune Minerals recently secured a total of C$17 million in funding from the Canadian and US governments to advance the NICO project.
- An experienced management team leads Fortune Minerals towards fully developing and capitalizing on its assets.
Overview
Cobalt is an often-overlooked
critical mineral in the transition to clean energy, required to make the cathodes of many lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles (EVs), stationary storage cells and consumer electronics. Cobalt is also used in superalloys for the aerospace industry, cemented carbides, cutting tools, permanent magnets, surgical implants, catalysts, pigments and agricultural products.
The global cobalt market is expected to
reach a volume of almost 306,000 metric tons by 2028. Cobalt outlook in the long-term is expected to double by 2030 with the EV segment accounting for 89 percent of growth, energy storage at 3 percent and superalloys at 2 percent.
Fortune Minerals (TSX:
FT,OTCQB:FTMDF) is a Canadian mining company developing its wholly owned, vertically integrated NICO primary cobalt project in Canada to produce cobalt chemicals for the rapidly expanding lithium-ion battery industry. The NICO mineral reserves also contain 1.1 million ounces (Moz) of gold, 12 percent of global bismuth reserves, and copper as a minor by-product. NICO comprises a proposed mine and mill in the Northwest Territories that will produce bulk concentrates that will be shipped to a planned refinery in Alberta. The concentrates from the mine will then be processed into energy and eco-metals for the growing clean energy economy.
NICO is a primary cobalt deposit, but the mineral reserves also contain 1.1 Moz of gold as a countercyclical and highly liquid co-product that can be easily converted to cash. The gold contained in the NICO deposit stands out among other cobalt projects, where the metal is produced primarily as a by-product of copper or nickel.
NICO is also the largest known deposit of bismuth in the world with about 12 percent of global reserves – even though it represents only about 10 percent of the company’s projected revenue from operations at recent metal prices.
The cobalt, bismuth and copper contained in the NICO deposit are all classified as critical minerals by Canada, as they have essential use in new technologies, cannot be easily substituted with other minerals, and because supply chains may be threatened by geopolitical issues.
The mineral reserves for the NICO deposit were estimated in compliance with NI-43-101 and total 33.1 million tonnes (Mt), containing 82.3 million lbs (37,341 tonnes) of cobalt, 1.1 Moz of gold, 102.1 million lbs (46,325 tonnes) of bismuth and 27.2 million lbs (12,296 tonnes) of copper to support a 20-year mine life at a mill throughput rate of 4,650 metric tons of ore per day.
Sums of the combined reserves may not exactly equal sums of the underground and open pit reserves due to rounding errors.
The mineral reserves are based on 327 drill holes plus surface trenches and underground test mining verifying the deposit grades, geometry and mining conditions. Both of Fortune Minerals’ deposits are open for potential expansion, extending the deposits with additional drilling or identifying new zones or deposits.
The Government of Canada is providing
funding of up to $714,500 for the planned cobalt sulphate process pilot and other metallurgical test work at the NICO project. Additionally, the Government of Alberta, through the Alberta Innovates, has also approved additional funding contributions of up to $172,670 toward the budgeted program costs under its Clean Resources Continuous Intake Program. The funds will be used to support a mini-pilot at SGS Canada to confirm certain process design criteria and improvements to the NICO project metallurgical processes.
Fortune Minerals also received an
C$8.74 million grant from the United States Department of Defense to expand the domestic capacity and production of cobalt for the battery and high strength alloy supply chains. The company recently secured a total of C$17 million in financial support from the Canadian and US governments to advance the NICO project.
The company’s other assets include the Sue-Dianne deposit, which has near-surface, copper-silver-gold deposits that can feed into the NICO mill.
Key Project
NICO Cobalt Project and Reserves
The NICO cobalt-gold-bismuth-copper deposit is an IOCG or Olympic Dam-type mineral deposit situated on 5,140 hectares of mining leases, located 160 kilometers northwest of the City of Yellowknife and 50 kilometers north of Whati in Canada's Northwest Territories.
Fortune Minerals has spent more than C$135 million preparing technical, environmental and social studies to support the development of the NICO cobalt-gold-bismuth-copper project. Environmental assessment approval and the major mine permits have been received for the planned facilities in the Northwest Territories. The project is expected to be a reliable North American producer of critical minerals with supply chain transparency and custody control of
ethically produced metals from ores through to the production of value-added metals and chemicals.
Project Highlights:
- Excellent Infrastructure in Place and Under Development: There is all-season road access to Whati via Highway 9, a $400-million design/build/operate/maintain private-public partnership between the Government of the Northwest Territories and North Star Infrastructure. The federal government contributed up to $53 million of the project's capital costs through the Canadian Infrastructure Fund. Fortune Minerals has received environmental assessment approval to build a 50-kilometer spur road from Whati to the mine site, which is included in the mine site capital costs. With the construction of the road, Fortune will be able to transport metal concentrates from the mine to the railway at Enterprise or Hay River and deliver them by rail to the company's planned refinery in Alberta. The NICO leases are located 25 kilometers west of the Snare hydro complex and electrical grid servicing Yellowknife.
- Large, Well-defined Polymetallic Deposit: NICO and the company's satellite Sue-Dianne copper-silver-gold deposit are classified as iron oxide-copper-gold (IOCG)-type deposits with world-class global analogs, including Olympic Dam in South Australia, the Salobo and Sossego deposits in Brazil, and the Candelaria district deposits in Chile. They occur in clusters of multiple deposits, commonly aggregating more than a billion tonnes in similar tectonic and geological environments.
- Encouraging Results from 2021 Exploratory Drilling: The company’s exploratory drilling program consisted of 13 drill holes totaling 2,482 meters. Promising results from the campaign include:
- 3.17 meters, averaging 0.42 percent cobalt, 0.55 g/t gold, and 0.37 percent bismuth at a depth of 28.7 meters, including 1.05 meters, grading 0.99 percent cobalt, 0.25 g/t gold, and 0.56 percent bismuth;
- 4.8 meters, averaging 0.12 percent cobalt and 0.50 g/t gold at a depth of 8 meters, including 1.98 meters, averaging 0.26 percent cobalt and 1.13 g/t gold;
- 2.31 meters, averaging 0.11 percent cobalt and 0.87 g/t gold at a depth of 139.6 meters, including 1.16 meters, grading 0.20 percent cobalt and 1.63 g/t gold.
- 2014 Micon NICO Feasibility Study: A positive feasibility study was completed in 2014 by Micon International Limited that identified the mineral reserves to support a 20-year mine life at a mill throughput rate of 4,650 metric tons of ore per day. The feasibility study and previous front-end engineering and design study by Aker Solutions contemplated combined open-pit and underground mining during the first two years of the mine life, followed by open-pit-only mining. The company has retained Worley Canada Services to lead the preparation of an updated Feasibility Study that will include project optimizations, current capital and operating costs, and current commodity prices.
Fortune Minerals entered into a
new option agreement with JFSL Field Services ULC to purchase the brownfield industrial site in Lamont County, Alberta where it plans to construct its hydrometallurgical facility (Alberta Facility). The Alberta Facility would process metal concentrates from Fortune's planned NICO cobalt-gold-bismuth-copper mine and concentrator in the Northwest Territories. It will also provide a reliable domestic supply of critical minerals for the energy transition and other new technologies.
Alberta Hydrometallurgical Facility Site
The Alberta Facility will produce cobalt sulphate for the North American lithium-ion battery industry, bismuth ingots (12 percent of global reserves) and copper cement - with more than one million ounces of in-situ gold as a countercyclical and highly liquid co-product. Fortune also has a process collaboration with Rio Tinto examining the feasibility of processing materials produced from Kennecott Smelter wastes in Utah at the Alberta Facility to increase cobalt and bismuth production.
Fortune Minerals is
advancing the NICO Project toward a construction decision with US and Canadian government financial support from critical minerals supply chain security programs. The company has retained Worley Canada Services to conduct additional engineering and lead the preparation of an updated Feasibility Study for the NICO. Worley will further assist the company in processing the permits for the brownfield site to host the proposed hydrometallurgical facility.
Sue-Dianne Copper Deposit
The Sue-Dianne copper-silver-gold deposit located near the NICO deposit belongs to IOCG class of deposits with world-class global analogues and is a potential future source of incremental mill feed to extend the life of the NICO mill and concentrator.
Management Team
Mahendra Naik - Chairman and Director
Mahendra Naik is a chartered accountant and was one of the founding directors and key executives who started IAMGOLD Corporation, a TSX and NYSE-listed gold mining company. As chief financial officer from 1990 to 1999, he was involved in the negotiations of the Sadiola and Yatela mine joint ventures with Anglo American, and the US$400 million project debt financing for the development of the mines. In addition, he was involved in more than $150 million in equity financings including the IPO for IAMGOLD. Naik is currently the chief executive officer of FinSec Services., a private business advisory company and a director and member of the audit and compensation committees for IAMGOLD. In addition, Naik is a director and member of audit, compensation and risk/control committees of FirstGlobalData Limited, Goldmoney Network Limited and Jameson Bank.
Robin E. Goad - President, CEO and Director
Robin Goad is a professional geologist with 30 years of experience in the mining and exploration industries. Before founding Fortune in 1988, Goad worked for large companies, including Noranda and Teck, as a consultant in the resource industry. Goad is a director of the NWT and Nunavut Chamber of Mines and has served as president and director of other TSX-listed mineral exploration and development companies.
Patricia Penney - Interim CFO
Patricia Penney is a chartered accountant with 20 years of accounting and audit experience. Before Fortune, she was a senior manager with Caceis Canada., an alternative fund administrator.
Richard Schryer - Vice-president of Regulatory and Environmental Affairs
Richard Schryer is an aquatic scientist with more than 25 years of experience in mine permitting, environmental assessments, environmental studies and monitoring. Schryer also worked with Golder Associates.
Alex Mezei - Chief Metallurgist
Alex Mezei is an independent metallurgical consultant with 40 years of international process engineering experience, providing general and specialized services in metallurgical process flowsheet testing, design, development, derisking and implementation. Mezei has been involved in process economics assessment for several projects. Specific technical expertise includes hydrometallurgy, liquid-solid separation, rheology, and mineral processing. Projects and commodities include extraction of cobalt, lithium, nickel, graphite, manganese, as well as base, rare and precious metals. In addition, Mezei provides specialized expertise in recycling, oil sands and carbon capture projects. Mezei is a Qualified Person for the purposes of National Instrument 43-101.
David Knight - Corporate Secretary
David Knight is a partner with WeirFoulds LLP. David is widely recognized for his more than 30 years of experience. He specializes in securities law, including public and private financings, mergers and acquisitions, stock exchange listings and regulatory compliance and acts for investment dealers and issuers. Knight is a member of the Law Society of Upper Canada.
Troy Nazarewicz - Investor Relations Manager
Troy D. Nazarewicz has 30 years of experience in the capital markets as a portfolio manager with MacDougall, MacDougall & MacTier and in his investor relations role at Fortune. He also worked as a business development manager with a design and marketing firm.
American Salars Lithium
Investor Insight
American Salars Lithium’s strategic focus on scalable, brine-based
lithium projects in Tier 1 jurisdictions makes it a compelling investment opportunity, poised to become a leading consolidator of lithium salars globally.
Company Highlights
- American Salars Lithium is taking advantage of depressed lithium prices to acquire undervalued assets with long-term scalability and world-class exit potential. The company targets assets with clear upside potential, particularly in brine-rich jurisdictions like Argentina and Nevada.
- The company’s holdings include four lithium projects: Salar de Pocitos (Argentina), Black Rock South (Nevada, USA), Jaguaribe Pegmatite (Brazil), and the Quebec Lithium Portfolio (Canada).
- Located in the Lithium Triangle of Salta, Argentina, the flagship Pocitos 1 is an 800-hectare brine project shares a 760,000-tonne inferred lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) resource and excellent expansion potential.
- Brine-based lithium resources offer lower environmental impact, faster resource delineation, and reduced development costs compared to hard rock alternatives.
- Several of the company’s team members have been involved in multi-million-dollar lithium asset sales. Recent deals in the region (e.g., Alpha Lithium, Neo Lithium, Arcadium) provide a roadmap for monetization.
Overview
American Salars Lithium (CSE:
USLI,OTC:USLIF,FWB:Z3P) is an exploration-stage company focused on acquiring, developing and monetizing lithium brine projects across the Americas. With a strong emphasis on low-cost entry and resource expansion, the company is executing a disciplined strategy to build a portfolio of scalable assets in highly strategic jurisdictions.
Salar de Pocitos
At the core of American Salars’ strategy is the belief that lithium demand—driven by both electric vehicles and emerging stationary storage applications—will surge in the coming years. The company is positioning itself now to benefit from a long-term price recovery, focusing on assets that are attractive to major producers and investors.
Unlike many junior miners that pivot with market fads, American Salars has remained laser-focused on lithium since inception. The company is not built for short-term trading but for long-term investors seeking exposure to a growing portfolio of lithium salars with eventual exit potential.
American Salars is executing a focused, value-driven strategy designed to maximize returns for shareholders through disciplined asset acquisition, resource growth and positioning for future monetization. The company’s approach to
lithium investing involves acquiring undervalued assets during market downturns with the objective of capitalizing on future price recoveries. This opportunistic acquisition model allows the company to secure high-potential projects at low entry costs while minimizing dilution and preserving capital.
The company prioritizes lithium brine projects due to their lower development costs, faster resource delineation, and smaller environmental footprint. Its assets provide a foundation for scalable resource development through targeted drilling, advanced aquifer modeling, and ongoing environmental permitting. By focusing on brines, American Salars can efficiently build a strong, technically de-risked project pipeline with lower exploration overhead. Ultimately, American Salars is building its portfolio with a clear path to strategic exits.
Key Projects
Salar de Pocitos
Salar de Pocitosis American Salars Lithium’s flagship asset, located in Argentina’s lithium-rich Puna region in Salta Province. The Pocitos 1 block covers 800 hectares and has demonstrated significant brine potential through past drilling and testing campaigns. The property shares a 760,000-ton inferred lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) resource, though it's important to note that this resource estimate was derived from earlier drilling and included Pocitos 2, which American Salars does not own. However, all drill holes contributing to that estimate were located within Pocitos 1, where the company holds 100 percent ownership. Drilling has intersected aquifers at depths ranging between 365 to 407 meters, with lithium concentrations up to 169 parts per million (ppm). Notably, strong brine flow rates were sustained for over five hours, and core sample porosity tests returned excellent values between 6 percent and 14 percent.
Ekosolve pilot plant testing on brines from Pocitos 1 produced lithium carbonate at 99.89 percent purity with recovery rates of 94.9 percent, confirming the extractive potential of the salar. The project’s high lithium concentrations within a compact footprint present compelling scalability potential, and American Salars is actively pursuing an expanded land position to increase its overall brine resource base. Environmental baseline studies are underway in preparation for a future production scenario. An updated NI 43-101 compliant resource estimate is also anticipated as part of the company’s near-term development strategy.
With strong local partnerships and a seasoned team of lithium veterans on the ground, Pocitos stands out as one of the most promising early-stage brine assets in Argentina. The Company signed a letter of intent on March 3rd 2025 to acquire an additional 13,080 hectares on the salar.
Black Rock South
The Black Rock South project is located in the Black Rock Desert basin in Nevada, USA. The Black Rock Desert region is known for geothermal activity and proximity to established lithium operations, such as Albemarle’s Silver Peak Mine—the only currently producing lithium brine operation in North America. American Salars’ property is strategically situated just 72 miles north of Tesla’s Gigafactory and 93 miles southwest of Thacker Pass, placing it in a geopolitically important supply zone for US battery manufacturing.
The project consists of a large sedimentary basin with known geothermal activity, indicating the potential for a brine-hosted lithium aquifer at depth. A 2024 soil sampling program returned 33 of 38 samples with lithium values above 100 ppm, including a peak of 180.5 ppm and an average of 131 ppm. These values trended in a northeast direction, suggesting structural controls that could host lithium-enriched aquifers.
An NI 43-101 report has been completed, and the company is now evaluating geophysical programs and structural modeling to define high-certainty drill targets. Depths to target aquifers are anticipated to be 800 to 1,000 meters, requiring significant capital investment. To address water usage concerns, the company is exploring the use of direct lithium extraction (DLE) technologies, which offer lower environmental impact by returning processed water to the aquifer.
Jaguaribe
Located in the northern coastal state of Ceará, Brazil, the
Jaguaribe projectspans 18,083 hectares and targets lithium-bearing LCT (lithium-cesium-tantalum) pegmatites. This historically artisanal mining district has previously produced lithium,coltan(niobium-tantalum) and tin. Recent Phase 1 surface exploration by American Salars identified multiple wide pegmatite dykes of up to 30 meters in width and 300 meters in length, indicating a robust and laterally continuous system.
Initial geochemical assays returned lithium oxide grades of up to 3.72 percent, 2.15 percent and 1.58 percent, alongside notable concentrations of cesium (554.5 ppm), tantalum (135 ppm) and niobium (177 ppm). These high-grade surface samples confirm Jaguaribe’s potential as a high-impact, hard-rock lithium project in a jurisdiction with favorable mining laws and growing lithium sector interest. The company plans to conduct detailed mapping, channel sampling and geophysical surveys to define drill-ready targets. The scale, grade and historic mining context make Jaguaribe American Salars’ top-ranked hard rock project.
Quebec Lithium Portfolio
American Salars controls three hard rock lithium exploration properties in Quebec, Canada: Xenia West & East, Lac Simard South, and
Leduc East, together totaling over 11,500 hectares. These properties are located in proximity to well-known lithium districts, including Sayona Mining's and Brunswick Exploration’s land holdings. The Xenia projects, comprising 92 claims (5,382 ha), are located 30 km southeast of Val-d’Or and lie within the Pontiac Geological Subprovince, known for its lithium-rich pegmatites.
Lac Simard South, spanning 80 km southwest of Sayona’s Authier project, is accessible via gravel roads and logging routes, and offers excellent infrastructure for exploration and future development. Leduc East, a 6,100-hectare block north of Gatineau, is the most recently acquired and sits in a highly prospective greenstone belt. While these assets are still in early-stage development, they offer extensive historic pegmatite mapping, cost-effective acquisition history, and multiple targets identified from legacy data.
The company plans to execute low-cost sampling and reconnaissance work in the near term to add value and keep the claims in good standing. Given the surge in M&A activity across Quebec’s lithium belt, this portfolio offers substantial optionality.
Management Team
Nick Horsley – President, CEO and Director
Nicke Horsley has more than 19 years of experience in public markets, M&A and resource development. He is the founder of American Salars and is deeply aligned with shareholders.
Christopher Cooper – Director
Christopher Cooper is a former director at Alpha Lithium, which was acquired for over $300 million. He has extensive experience in lithium exits and corporate development.
Rodney Campbell – Director
Rodney Campbell has extensive experience in oil and gas and capital markets, with strong institutional connections.
Daryn Gordon – CFO
Daryn Gordon is an experienced chief financial officer with more than 20 years in audit and financial services, specializing in Canadian junior mining companies.
David Guerrero – Argentina Advisor
David Guerrero is the former country manager for Alpha Lithium. He has deep in-country expertise in Argentina and extensive lithium development experience.
Phillip Thomas – Qualified Person (Argentina)
Phillip Thomas has over 20 years’ experience in lithium brine geology. He was previously involved with Rincon, Pozuelos and other major Argentine salars.
William Feyerabend – Qualified Person (Nevada)
William Feyerabend is an expert in lithium exploration and technical reports across Nevada and Latin America.
Mitchell Lavery – Qualified Person (Quebec)
Mitchell Lavery is a veteran geologist with over 40 years of experience across gold, base metals and lithium in Canada.
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