Stonegate Capital Partners Updates Coverage on Aemetis Inc. 2Q26

Aemetis Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX): Stonegate Capital Partners Updates Coverage on Aemetis Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX). Aemetis' 2Q26 results made the operating inflection visible, as quarterly 45Z recognition, higher RNG production, and improved ethanol economics drove positive operating income and adj. EBITDA despite India OMC tender timing. Revenue increased 20% yy and 15% qq to $62.7M, below $68.6M consensus, while our normalized EPS estimate of negative $0.11 exceeded negative $0.24 consensus. Underlying results were better than the revenue variance: India reflected tender timing, and both California businesses delivered higher volumes, stronger gross profit, and increased environmental-credit contribution.

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Key Takeaways:

• Revenue increased 20% y/y and 15% q/q to $62.7M, while gross profit improved to $13.5M from a $3.4M loss and adj. EBITDA reached $9.7M from negative $5.8M. The quarter made the operating inflection more visible, as quarterly 45Z recognition, higher RNG production, and improved ethanol economics more than offset weaker India revenue tied to OMC tender timing.
• Dairy RNG remains the clearest growth driver, with sales volume increasing 38% y/y to 146,900 MMBtu and segment gross profit rising to $4.0M from $0.9M. Seven approved LCFS pathways averaging negative 380 CI are already improving credit economics, while six additional pathways nearing approval and two digesters expected to be commissioned in 3Q26 provide additional runway for higher production, profitability, and cash flow.
• The Keyes earnings bridge continues to advance, with MVR targeted for operation by year-end 2026 and management estimating approximately $32M of annual value from lower natural-gas usage and incremental LCFS and 45Z benefits. While these operating improvements could materially strengthen the earnings profile beginning in 2027, the balance sheet remains the primary thesis constraint, with $1.0M of unrestricted cash, $415.9M of total debt, and refinancing progress still important to translating operating improvement into durable free cash flow.

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About Stonegate

Stonegate Capital Partners is a leading capital markets advisory firm providing investor relations, equity research, and institutional investor outreach services for public companies. Our affiliate, Stonegate Capital Markets (member FINRA) provides a full spectrum of investment banking, equity research and capital raising for public and private companies.

Source: Stonegate, Inc.

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