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2025 Battery Metals Outlook: Australia Edition
Lithium Market 2024 Year-End Review
The lithium market faced significant headwinds in 2024 as oversupply, softer-than-expected electric vehicle demand and geopolitics reshaped the industry's dynamics.
Lithium prices remained low in 2024 on the back of oversupply and weak demand.
Lithium carbonate spent the majority of the year contracting, shedding 22 percent between January and December. Prices started the 12 month period at US$13,160.20 per metric ton (MT) and ended it at US$10,254.16.
The weak price environment was the result of a supply glut, a factor that S&P Global expects to persist in 2025.
In a November report, the firm forecasts a “global surplus of approximately 33,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2025, a decrease from the 84,000 metric tons surplus projected for 2024 and 2023's 120,000 metric tons."
Against that backdrop, S&P is projecting continued lithium carbonate price declines next year, with the annual average price projected at US$10,542 in 2025, down from US$12,374 in 2024 and a steep drop from US$40,579 in 2023.
Adding to price pressure, advances in alternative battery technologies are posing challenges to lithium's traditional dominance. In 2024, these factors combined to create a year of volatility and transformation for the critical battery metal.
Supply surplus weighs on lithium prices
Market saturation emerged as a key theme for lithium early in the year as a continued surplus weighed on prices.
The excess comes on the back of steadily growing mine supply over the last four years. In 2020, the annual global mine supply tally was 82,500 MT, a number that more than doubled in 2023 to 180,000 MT.
Prices for lithium carbonate remained in the US$13,000 range for January, but began to rise in mid-February, ultimately reaching a year-to-date high of US$15,969.26 on March 14.
The price momentum was attributed to announcements that some new projects were being delayed, while operations in development and production were being transitioned to care and maintenance.
“We also began to see some supply response to the persistent lower price environment, with the announcement of delays to expansion plans and layoffs at some lithium producers or aspirants,” Adam Megginson, analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, told the Investing News Network during the first quarter.
“I only expect this to palpably impact the supply picture in 12 to 18 months, as that is when these expansions were planned to ramp.”
Record-setting lithium M&A activity
This precarious landscape was fertile ground for M&A deals, which occurred throughout the year.
“As lithium projects struggle to stay above water, analysts also expect M&A activity to increase as major producers with positive cash flow try to find deals in the market while junior companies try to sell projects in a market where private capitals are scarcer than previous years," a February 12 report from S&P Global states.
2024 started with the completion of Livent (NYSE:LTHM) and Allkem's merger of equals. The deal saw the two companies combine under the Arcadium Lithium (NYSE:ALTM,ASX:LTM) banner,boasting a market cap of US$5.5 billion and an extensive portfolio of lithium production assets and resources across the Americas and Australia.
By September, the weak price environment had forced Arcadium to halt expansion plans for its Mount Cattlin spodumene operation in Western Australia, with plans to transition to care and maintenance by mid-2025.
Despite that setback, Arcadium made headlines once again a month later as global mining major Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) made a move to acquire the multinational lithium company. Once the US$6.7 billion all-cash transaction closes, Rio Tinto will become the third largest producer of lithium globally.
Another notable 2024 lithium deal was Pilbara Minerals' (ASX:PLS,OTC Pink:PILBF) August plan to acquire Latin Resources (ASX:LRS,OTC Pink:LRSRF) in an all-stock deal valued at approximately US$369.4 million.
The acquisition will grant Pilbara Minerals access to Latin Resources' flagship Salinas lithium project in Brazil's Minas Gerais state, enhancing its presence in the burgeoning North American and European battery markets.
In late November, Sayona Mining (ASX:SYA,OTCQB:SYAXF) and US-based Piedmont Lithium (ASX:PLL,NASDAQ:PLL) unveiled a merger that is set to create a consolidated entity valued at about US$623 million.
These deals helped make lithium one of the most active M&A segments in the critical minerals space.
“Lithium stands out with both the highest volume of deals and largest total deal value from 2020-24 (US$24 billion),” a 2025 critical minerals outlook from Allens reads. “Deal volume for lithium M&A deals peaked in 2023, but remains relatively high in 2024, showing comparable volume to 2022.”
Global EV sales rebound amid trade tensions and policy shifts
As one of the largest end-use segments for lithium, the EV industry is a key factor in the market.
Weak North American EV sales early in the year offset some positivity out of Asian markets; however, in late Q3 and Q4, global sales began to pick up momentum. In October, the Chinese EV market set another monthly record with 1.2 million units sold, a 6 percent month-on-month increase. According to data from research firm Rho Motion, EV sales between January and October were up 24 percent compared to the same period in 2023.
“The global EV market is now picking back up again, hitting record sales for the second month in a row. Most of the growth is coming from China and Western manufacturers are clearly feeling threatened by this. The US market remains buoyant in part thanks to Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funding for consumers switching to electric which may be at risk with the start of the Trump presidency,” said Charles Lester, data manager at Rho Motion.
However, there is speculation that President-elect Donald Trump will dismantle key components of the IRA, particularly targeting the US$7,500 EV tax credit. His transition team has indicated intentions to eliminate this consumer incentive, which was designed to promote EV adoption and bolster the country's clean energy sector.
Critics have argued that removing the tax credit could hinder domestic EV sales and potentially benefit foreign competitors, notably China, by undermining investments in the US battery supply chain.
With that in mind, the proposed repealing of the tax credit has raised concerns among automakers and environmental advocates about the future of America's competitiveness in the rapidly growing global EV market.
The Biden administration made efforts to address that issue in May, when it sharply increased tariffs on Chinese EVs, raising duties to over 100 percent to counter alleged unfair trade practices. While the move was made to bolster domestic EV production and sales, critics said it could disrupt supply chains and raise consumer costs.
Following suit in August, North American neighbor Canada levied a 100 percent tariff on Chinese EVs, aligning with the US and EU to counter China’s trade practices. At the time, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau criticized China’s policies as unfair, citing their impact on Canadian industries and workers. He emphasized the need to protect the domestic EV and metal sectors from overcapacity caused by China’s state-driven production.
Canada also introduced a 25 percent surtax on Chinese steel and aluminum imports.
In response, China filed a formal complaint with the World Trade Organization over Canada’s decision to impose tariffs on Chinese-made EVs, steel and aluminum. Beijing criticized the measures as protectionist and in violation of international trade rules. China also filed similar complaints against the US and EU.
As uncertainty continues to plague the lithium space, analysts are projecting a sustained low-price environment into 2025, despite the production cuts and project delays that were prevalent in 2024.
"With the production cuts announced so far having primarily been about slowing future growth rather than immediate production, strong mine supply growth is still expected in the short-term, namely 24.7 percent in 2024 and 17.4 percent in 2025," Macquarie analysts told S&P Global as 2024 drew to a close.
"This suggests lower prices will need to persist for longer in the absence of any further price-induced cuts that rebalance the market sooner than our forecasts indicate.”
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
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Lithium Market Forecast: Top Trends for Lithium in 2025
The lithium market enters 2025 at a crossroads, shaped by persistent oversupply, geopolitical shifts and evolving demand dynamics in the electric vehicle sector.
After a tumultuous 2024 that saw lithium carbonate prices tumble 22 percent amid a global supply glut, analysts are predicting another year of volatility for the important battery metal.
Even so, some balance is expected to return — according to S&P Global, the lithium surplus is projected to narrow to 33,000 metric tons in 2025, down from 84,000 metric tons in 2024, as production cuts begin to temper excess supply.
Demand from the electric vehicle (EV) market remains a key driver, with China maintaining its dominance after record-breaking sales in late 2024. In North America, the EV sector will face uncertainty under the Trump administration.
As 2025 unfolds, the lithium sector will also have to navigate geopolitical tensions, including rising tariffs on Chinese EVs and escalating trade disputes that are reshaping global supply chains.
“The name of the game in lithium (in 2025) is oversupply. Excess production in places like Africa and China, coupled with softer EV sales, has absolutely hammered the lithium price both in 2023 and 2024. I wouldn't think we can dig ourselves out of this hole in 2025 despite reliably strong EV sales,” said Chris Berry, president of House Mountain Partners.
In his view, the next 12 months could be unpredictable in terms of lithium price activity.
“Lithium price volatility is a feature of the energy transition and not a bug,” he said. “You have a small but fast-growing market, opaque pricing, legislation designed to rapidly build critical infrastructure underpinned by lithium and other metals, and this is a recipe for boom-and-bust cycles demonstrated by extremely high and extremely low pricing.”
For Gerardo Del Real of Digest Publishing, seeing prices for lithium contract by 80 percent over the last two years evidences a bottoming in the lithium market and also serves as a strong signal.
“I think the fact that we're up some 7 percent to close the year in 2024 in the spot price leads me to believe that we're going to see a pretty robust rebound in 2025. I think that's going to extend to the producers that have obviously been affected by the lower prices, but also to the quality exploration companies,” Del Real said in December.
He believes contrarian investors with a mid to long-term outlook have a prime opportunity to re-enter the space.
Lithium market to see more balance in 2025
As mentioned, widespread lithium production cuts are expected to help bring the sector into balance in 2025.
William Adams, head of base metals research at Fastmarkets, told the Investing News Network (INN) via email that output cuts for the battery metal have already started inside and outside of China.
“We expect further cutbacks if prices do not recover soon in the new year. While we have seen some cuts, we are also seeing some producers continue with their expansion plans and some advanced junior miners ramp up production. So we are now in a situation where we are waiting for demand to catch up with production again," he said.
Adams and Fastmarkets expect to see lithium demand catch up to production in late 2025. However, he warned that refreshed demand is unlikely to push prices to previous highs set in 2022.
“We do not expect to see a return to the highs we saw in 2022, as there are more producers and mines around now and there has been a buildup of stocks along the supply chain, especially in China,” he said.
“This should prevent any actual shortage being seen in 2025, but stocks can be held in tight hands, and if the market senses a tighter market, then they may be encouraged to restock, which could lift prices. But the restart of idle capacity in such a case is likely to keep prices rises in check," Adams added.
Analysts at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence are taking a similar stance, with a slightly more optimistic tone.
“In 2025, prices are likely to remain fairly rangebound. This is because Benchmark forecasts a relatively balanced market next year in terms of supply and demand,” said Adam Megginson, senior analyst at the firm. He also referenced output reductions in Australia and China, noting that they may not be as impactful as some market watchers anticipate.
This past July, Albemarle (NYSE:ALB), announced plans to halve processing capacity in Australia and pause an expansion at its Kemerton plant amid the prolonged lithium price slump. One of the plant’s two processing trains will be placed on care and maintenance, while construction of a third train has been scrapped.
“These supply contractions are likely to be balanced by capacity expansions due to come online in China in 2025, as well as in African countries like Zimbabwe and Mali,” Megginson said.
“Expect supply from these other regions to play a bigger role in the market in 2025.”
Unpredictable geopolitical situation to impact sector
Geopolitics is likely to play a key role in the lithium market this year, both directly and indirectly.
In 2024, the Biden administration raised tariffs on Chinese EVs to over 100 percent to counter alleged unfair trade practices, aiming to boost domestic production, but drawing criticism over potential supply chain disruptions.
Canada followed suit with similar 100 percent tariffs on Chinese EVs, as well as a 25 percent surcharge on Chinese steel and aluminum, citing the need to protect local industries. China has responded with World Trade Organization complaints against Canada and the US, along with the EU, labeling the measures protectionist.
Whether these tariffs against China will be enough to bolster the domestic North American EV market remains to be seen; however, the issue could become even more complicated if US President-elect Donald Trump makes good on his threats to levy tariffs on America's continental trade partners, Canada and Mexico.
Del Real doesn't expect US tariffs on critical minerals like lithium, but expressed concerns about a trade war.
“The bottom line is getting into a tit-for-tat with China is a dangerous proposition because of the leverage they have, especially in the commodity space, and so the tariffs are going to be passed down to consumers," he said. In his view, Trump's tariff threats could be more of a negotiating tactic than a sustained strategy.
More broadly, the experts INN heard from expect resource nationalism, near shoring and supply chain security to play prevalent roles in the lithium market and the critical minerals space as a whole.
“There's no doubt that lithium in particular has become politicized as policy makers across the globe have awoken from their slumber and realized that dependence on critical materials and supply chains in a single country is a bad idea for both economic and national security,” said Berry, noting that China had this realization decades ago.
“There is no easy fix, and you're looking at roughly a decade before any western countries have any sort of a regionalized or 'friend-shored' supply chain. Accelerating this would involve massive capital investment, patience and most importantly, political will. North America in particular has made great strides in recent years, but we have a long way to go. I'm not sure if fully decoupling from China is even a good idea," the battery metals expert added.
For Benchmark’s Megginson, 2025 could be a year of increased domestic development.
“We have seen several countries attempting to adopt some form of 'resource nationalism.' In some cases, this has been driven by wanting to onshore the production of critical minerals that are necessary for defense and nuclear applications. In others, it stems from a desire to be more self-sufficient so they can be more resilient to supply shocks.”
Proposed tariffs from Trump could also serve as a catalyst for US lithium output.
“With the incoming Trump administration, everyone has their eyes on how promises of increased tariffs will be implemented. Ultimately, heavier tariffs would accelerate efforts to onshore capacity in the US,” Megginson said.
“We may see the EU following suit with tariffs. There has been much said of the diversification of the lithium market away from China, but many of those efforts stalled in 2024 as the downswing in prices and a shifting geopolitical landscape made these endeavors more challenging," added the Benchmark senior analyst.
This nationalistic focus is also projected to impact refinement capacity and jurisdiction.
“While extracting the lithium from the ground has been successfully done in non-incumbent countries, such as in Brazil, Central Africa and Canada, with others expected to follow, the building of refining capacity has proved more difficult from a know-how and cost point of view, with a number of companies announcing that they are reining in some expansion plans, canceling some building projects or delaying decisions,” Adams of Fastmarkets said.
He went on to note that South Korea is an area to watch.
“Outside of China, South Korea has successfully ramped up new refining capacity, while Australia has had mixed results. The general issue is it’s hard to get the process right, and the CAPEX and OPEX outside of China means it is hard to be competitive. It will be interesting to see how Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) new Texas plant ramps up,” Adams noted.
Elsewhere, Adams pointed to the desire to secure supply chains. “Resource nationalism has also been an issue in some jurisdictions, with more countries now wanting processing capacity to be built in the country, and in order to force that they have banned the export of lithium-bearing ores. Zimbabwe a case in point,” he told INN.
Adams also pointed to Chile’s efforts to partially nationalize lithium producers, with the government mining company having controlling stakes in producers. “This could deter international investment in developing these mines,” he said. “In other metals, Indonesia has been very successful in playing the resource nationalism card.”
EV and ESS sectors to be key lithium price drivers
While the factors mentioned will undoubtedly impact the lithium industry in 2025, the market's most pronounced driver is the EV sector, and to a lesser extent the energy storage system (ESS) space.
“Demand for lithium-ion batteries is set to continue to grow rapidly in 2025. Benchmark forecasts that EV and ESS-related demand for lithium will both increase by over 30 percent year-on-year in 2025,” said Megginson.
To satiate this uptick in demand, “additional volumes of lithium will need to come to market.”
Megginson also noted that robust ESS demand is a positive demand signal for lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) cathode chemistries, but is unlikely to outweigh the mounting EV demand in China.
This sentiment was echoed by Berry of House Mountain Partners, who expects the EV and ESS sectors to continue dominating market share in terms of lithium end use. “EVs and ESS are roughly 80 percent of lithium demand, and this shows no signs of abating. Other lithium demand avenues will grow reliably at global GDP, but the future of lithium is tied to increasing proliferation of the lithium-ion battery,” he commented to INN.
Despite weak EV sales in Europe and North America in 2024, Fastmarkets’ Adams expects to see a recovery in demand from these regions, paired with strong sales in China. The dip in European sales, particularly in Germany after subsidy cuts in early 2024, mirrors China’s 2019 slowdown following subsidy reductions. However, as with China, the decline appears temporary, with a recovery expected as stricter emissions penalties take effect in Europe in 2025.
Additionally, Adams pointed to the growing adoption of extended-range EVs, which address range anxiety and use larger batteries than plug-in hybrid EVs, as a catalyst for lithium demand.
However, he noted that the outlook for EVs in the US remains uncertain as Trump takes the helm.
“ESS demand has been particularly strong, especially in China, and we expect that to continue as the need to build renewable energy generation capacity is ever present and has a wide footprint. For example, ESS buildout in India is strong, whereas demand for EVs is less strong, but again it is strong for 2/3 wheelers," said Adams. He added that low prices for battery raw materials have lowered prices for lithium-ion batteries, benefiting ESS projects.
Ultimately the lithium market is expected to see volatility in 2025, but could also present opportunities.
"I can see a 100 to 150 percent rebound in the lithium spot price easily in 2025. And again, I think there's a lot of opportunity there,” Del Real of Digest Publishing emphasized to INN.
For Megginson, the sector will be shaped by geopolitics and relations moving forward.
“Policy will have a huge role to play in driving price trends in 2025," he said.
"For instance, there remains uncertainty around how the tariffs promised by an incoming Trump administration in the US would be implemented, and how they could reshape the global lithium landscape."
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Galan Lithium and Lithium Universe are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
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3 Best-performing ASX Lithium Stocks of 2024
The lithium sector regained some stability in 2024, but oversupply continues to weigh on the market. These three ASX-listed stocks saw the biggest gains despite headwinds.
Global demand for lithium presents a significant opportunity for Australia, the world's top lithium producer.
Australia’s abundant lithium reserves and strong output position it as a key player in the battery value chain into the 2030s. However, rapid electric vehicle (EV) market growth has driven increased mining, leading to a global surplus.
Against that backdrop, the lithium market experienced significant upheaval in 2024, with oversupply and weaker-than-expected EV demand driving a 22 percent drop in lithium carbonate prices.
The year began with a supply glut weighing heavily on prices, which briefly rose in March before resuming their decline. Analysts project a continued lithium surplus into 2025, despite production cuts and project delays.
While Chinese EV sales hit record highs late in the year, geopolitical tensions — including tariffs and potential US policy changes — added uncertainty to the global lithium landscape, leaving the market in a prolonged low-price environment.
Here the Investing News Network looks at the top three ASX-listed lithium companies by year-to-date gains. The list below was generated using TradingView’s stock screener on December 31, 2024, and includes companies that had market caps above AU$10 million at that time. Read on to learn more about their activities over the past year.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 84.48 percent
Market cap: AU$1.19 billion
Share price: AU$5.35
Europe-focused Vulcan Energy Resources aims to support a carbon-neutral future by producing lithium and renewable energy from geothermal brine. The company is currently developing the Zero Carbon lithium project in Germany's Upper Rhine Valley. Vulcan is utilising a proprietary alumina-based adsorbent-type direct lithium extraction (DLE) process to produce lithium with an end goal of supplying sustainable lithium for the European EV market.
On April 11, Vulcan announced the commencement of lithium chloride production at its lithium extraction optimisation plant in Germany. According to the company, the milestone marks the first lithium chemical production in Europe using local supply. The plant has consistently exhibited over 90 percent lithium extraction efficiency.
The company already has binding lithium offtake agreements in place with major automakers and battery manufacturers, and expects to supply enough lithium for 500,000 EVs during the first phase of production.
During Q3, Vulcan received its first licences for lithium and geothermal exploration in Alsace, France. The permits cover 463 square kilometres, expanding Vulcan's total licenced area in the Upper Rhine Valley to 2,234 square kilometres.
In early August, Vulcan began commissioning its downstream lithium hydroxide optimisation plant (CLEOP) near Frankfurt, Germany, which will process the lithium chloride concentrate from its DLE plant.
A mid-October release from Vulcan outlines a memorandum of understanding with industrial software designer AVEVA. The partnership will see AVEVA build a digital framework for Vulcan’s Zero Carbon lithium project.
Also in October, the company earned S&P Global’s highest "dark green" sustainability rating, a first for the mining sector, under its Green Financing Framework. On November 8, Vulcan announced it had commenced lithium hydroxide production at CLEOP. The milestone coincided with an AU$162 million funding infusion from Germany’s Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection and the European Recovery and Resilience Facility.
To end the year, Vulcan announced the signing of a AU$1.45 billion conditional debt commitment letter with Export Finance Australia and a group of seven commercial banks.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 6.67 percent
Market cap: AU$353.35 million
Share price: AU$0.16
Australia-listed Ioneer owns the Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron project in Nevada, US. According to the company, the project is considered the “sole lithium-boron deposit in North America.”
As part of the permitting process for Rhyolite Ridge, Ioneer completed and submitted an administrative draft environmental impact statement (EIS) to the US Bureau of Land Management (BLM) in mid-January. In mid-September, Ioneer announced that the BLM had published the final EIS, moving the company closer to construction.
The comprehensive review process addressed environmental concerns, particularly regarding the protection of the endangered Tiehm's buckwheat plant found at the site. Ioneer has committed to measures aimed at safeguarding the plant's habitat. In October, Ioneer secured final federal approval for Rhyolite Ridge.
The project became the first US lithium mine authorised under the Biden administration.
Rhyolite Ridge is projected to produce sufficient lithium for approximately 370,000 EV batteries annually. Construction is slated to commence in 2025, with production expected by 2028.
Company Profile
Year-to-date gain: 2.25 percent
Market cap: AU$52.03 million
Share price: AU$0.09
Africa-focused explorer Prospect Resources holds a diversified portfolio of assets in Zimbabwe, Zambia and Namibia. The company’s lithium prospects, Omaruru and Step Aside, are in Namibia and Zimbabwe, respectively.
In late June, Prospect released an update on its exploration activities, reporting strong assay results from Phase 4 diamond drilling at the Step Aside lithium project in Zimbabwe and follow-up Phase 2 drilling at the Omaruru lithium project. Managing Director Sam Hosack highlighted the significant mineralisation potential at both projects.
Moving forward, Prospect plans to slow down spending at its lithium projects as it turns to its newly acquired Mumbezhi copper project in Zambia. The company believes it can monetise Step Aside in the near term to aid in this goal.
In its June quarterly results, Prospect noted the completion of drilling and fieldwork for a Phase 4 diamond drilling program at the Step Aside lithium project in Zimbabwe, with no further exploration planned.
The project is being prepared for sale to help fund the Mumbezhi copper project.
Meanwhile, Phase 2 drilling at the Omaruru lithium project is complete, and the company has reduced spending to holding costs as its focus shifts to the Mumbezhi project.
In its September quarterly report, Prospect said it was discontinuing its Bikita Gem earn-in project in Southeastern Zimbabwe after drilling results failed to identify economically viable volumes of petalite-rich lithium mineralisation.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Australia for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, currently hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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Cobalt Market 2024 Year-End Review
2024 was a transformative year for the cobalt market, which faced shifting supply dynamics, evolving demand trends and significant regulatory developments.
Cobalt prices started 2024 trading at the US$29,151.50 per metric ton (MT) level, the highest price point the battery metal achieved for the year. By December, it had contracted by 16.68 percent to US$24,287.90.
Prices remained under pressure due to oversupply, with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) maintaining its dominant position as the world’s largest producer. Meanwhile, efforts to diversify supply chains and reduce reliance on the DRC gained momentum, with new projects and funding infusions announced in Canada and the US.
On the demand side, the rise of lower-cobalt battery chemistries weighed on consumption. Lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries continued gaining market share globally, pressuring cobalt’s role in the electric vehicle (EV) sector.
However, cobalt’s use in high-performance batteries for smartphones and other electronics remained resilient, offering a counterbalance to declines elsewhere. Geopolitics and policy added another layer of complexity, with China expanding its influence in African mining regions and western nations pursuing stricter supply chain transparency laws.
These dynamics are expected to shape cobalt’s role in the critical metals market into 2025 and beyond, as stakeholders grapple with the metal’s evolving importance in a decarbonized economy.
2024 cobalt supply and demand trends
Residual oversupply from 2023 prevented any price positivity in the cobalt market through 2024.
According to the US Geological Survey's annual cobalt report, mine supply of the battery metal ballooned in 2023, growing 16.75 percent year-on-year, from 197,000 MT in 2022 to 230,000 MT in 2023.
Over the last three years, annual mine supply has soared, from 142,000 MT to 230,000 MT, up 61 percent.
For 2023, 170,000 MT were mined in the DRC; the African nation is home to the five largest cobalt mines in the world. These high-grade areas have attracted the attention of Chinese mining companies, particularly China Molybdenum (SHA:603993,OTC Pink:CMCLF), which is one of the largest cobalt producers in the DRC and the world.
In recent years, cobalt-mining practices in the DRC have come under fire from international rights groups concerned that artisanal and small-scale cobalt-mining operations are using child labor.
In October 2024, the US Department of International Labor concluded a six year program entitled Combating Child Labor in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s Cobalt Industry (COTECCO).
Its key achievements include supporting the creation of an inter-ministerial commission to monitor child labor, and setting up a provincial commission in Lualaba. Since its inception in 2018, the project has trained 458 stakeholders from the government, civil society and the private sector on fighting child labor. It has introduced tools like the Bureau of International Labor Affairs' Comply Chain to 28 mining entities in Lualaba and Haut-Katanga.
Additionally, COTECCO has collaborated with the DRC government to establish a Child Labor Monitoring and Remediation System (CLRMS), training 110 officials to operate it. By March 2024, the CLRMS database had registered 5,346 children, and was officially handed over to the mines ministry for sustained management.
Cobalt fundamentals tightly tied to EV sector
Combating child exploitation in the cobalt supply chain will be paramount moving forward, as demand from the EV sector alone is expected to increase substantially, rising by 60 to 70 percent by 2040.
The DRC is projected to play a vital role in supplying the 214,000 MT of cobalt demand expected by 2030.
“It’s hard to understate just how much demand will be added to the cobalt market by the EV industry,” said Roman Aubry, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence pricing analyst, in an April email.
“Already it has become the largest demand sector, and its dominance is only set to grow.”
In 2024, global EV sales reached a third consecutive record high, with China leading the surge. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported a 5.3 percent increase in passenger vehicle sales, totaling 23.1 million units, with EVs and hybrids accounting for 47.2 percent of the market — a 40.7 percent rise from the previous year.
Elon Musk's Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), a dominant player in the EV sector, experienced a 1.1 percent decline in worldwide sales, delivering 1.79 million vehicles compared to 1.81 million in 2023.
This downturn was attributed to increased competition and market saturation.
However, other automakers reported significant growth. General Motors (NYSE:GM), for instance, achieved a 50 percent increase in its Q4 EV sales, driven by models like the Chevrolet Equinox EV SUV.
Analysts suggest that while Tesla's sales dip impacted overall market perceptions, the broader EV market remained robust, with traditional manufacturers gaining traction.
Another notable development in the EV sector in 2024 was the April announcement from Honda (NYSE:HMC) that it will invest C$15 billion to build a comprehensive EV value chain in Ontario, Canada.
The plans include an EV assembly plant and a standalone battery manufacturing facility. Joint ventures will add a cathode active material processing plant and a separator plant. The assembly plant aims to produce 240,000 vehicles annually, while the battery facility will have a capacity of 36 gigawatt hours.
Government funding supporting cobalt market growth
Due to its critical mineral designation, the cobalt sector has been the recipient of government funding.
In May, the US and Canada partnered for a co-investment to enhance the North American critical minerals supply chain. The collaboration will benefit Fortune Minerals (TSX:FT,OTCQB:FTMDF) and Lomiko Metals (TSXV:LMR,OTCQB:LMRMF), with the latter set to receive up to C$7.5 million from the Canadian government, matched by an additional US$6.4 million from the US Department of Defense’s Defense Production Act Investments Office.
The funding is part of the Canada-US Energy Transformation Task Force.
“Canada is positioning itself as a global leader in the supply of responsibly sourced critical minerals for the green and digital economy,” said Jonathan Wilkinson, Canada's minister of energy and natural resources.
“Through our work with the United States and other allies, we are developing secure critical minerals value chains that will power a prosperous and sustainable future," he added.
In August, Electra Battery Materials (TSXV:ELBM,NASDAQ:ELBM) secured a US$20 million grant from the US Department of Defense to aid in the construction and commissioning of “North America’s only cobalt sulfate refinery."
“Electra is committed to strengthening the resiliency of the North American battery supply chain,” said Electra CEO Trent Mell about the Ontario-based refinery. “We are grateful to the US Department of Defense for its support. On issues of national security, there are no borders between Canada and the United States. We are proud to partner with the US Government to build a strong North American supply chain for critical minerals.”
Cobalt catalysts to watch in 2025
Despite positive catalysts on the horizon, the cobalt market is facing immense pressure from substitution.
The shift toward LFP batteries, which omit cobalt, has drastically reduced demand in EV battery production.
By the third quarter of 2024, LFP batteries dominated 75.2 percent of the market, while nickel-manganese-cobalt batteries fell to 24.6 percent, according to data from S&P Global.
The declining role of cobalt in EV batteries was further highlighted in correspondence between China's CMOC (OTC Pink:CMCLF,SHA:603993), the world’s largest cobalt-mining company, and Bloomberg in late 2024.
“We predict that EV batteries will never return to the era that relies on cobalt,” said Zhou Xing, a spokesperson for CMOC. “Cobalt is far less important than imagined.”
However, even though cobalt's future in EVs looks clouded, demand persists in the consumer electronics segment, which relies on lithium-cobalt-oxide batteries, and in superalloys for aerospace and military applications.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Fortune Minerals is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
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Cobalt Market Forecast: Top Trends for Cobalt in 2025
The cobalt sector is facing another year of oversupply as production increases beyond demand. Find out what other factors are impacting the market.
Oversupply and shifting battery chemistries are set to define the cobalt market in 2025. Prices — subdued by excess supply since 2023 — are expected to remain stable, with limited volatility.
The rise of lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries, particularly in China, continues to suppress demand for cobalt chemicals, challenging sulfate refiners. Meanwhile, on the supply side, Indonesia's rapid expansion in mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) production offers an alternative to the contentious Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Even so, the DRC is expected to remain the primary producer of cobalt in the near to medium term.
“Oversupply has been the dominant driving force for cobalt prices since 2023, and this is likely to persist in 2025,” Roman Aubry, price analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, said. “As this single factor is so overwhelming, it has stifled much of the volatility in the market in 2024, and it is likely this will be the case in 2025 as well.”
Cobalt demand projected to rise long term
Critical minerals have become a key focus as nations look to fortify domestic supply chains. The cobalt sector’s production concentration in the DRC makes it even more prone to geopolitical upheaval.
According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2024 Global Critical Minerals Outlook, the cobalt market has a heightened geopolitical risk rating because 84 percent of production is focused in a single country.
Despite the current cobalt glut, the IEA is projecting that demand will soar from 213,000 metric tons in 2023, rising to 344,000 metric tons in 2030 and then to 454,000 metric tons in 2040.
This steep uptick has prompted the IEA to project a potential 16 percent shortfall by 2035.
Although countries like Indonesia and Australia are starting to see cobalt sector growth, experts agree that the DRC will continue to be the dominant player in the industry into the future.
“The DRC is going to maintain its position for the foreseeable future; however, Indonesian MHP is rapidly growing as an alternative source of cobalt in the market. In line with this, we’ve seen an influx of cobalt metal from Indonesia becoming more prevalent in recent months, being aggressively marketed by Indonesian producers,” said Aubry.
Those circumstances mean Indonesia could capture a larger piece of market share this year.
“With CMOC (OTC Pink:CMCLF,SHA:603993) not planning any new expansions this year, it is unlikely we'll see any significant growth from the DRC in cobalt production in 2025,” he added.
Refinement capacity will also play an important role in meeting growing cobalt demand.
Australia’s Cobalt Blue Holdings (ASX:COB,OTC Pink:CBBHF) is advancing plans for the Kwinana cobalt refinery near Perth, proposing an initial production capacity of 3,000 metric tons of cobalt sulfate and 500 metric tons of nickel metal annually. Construction is slated to commence in H1 2025, with completion expected within 12 months.
Changing battery chemistries threaten cobalt demand
In 2024, record-breaking global electric vehicle (EV) sales helped solidify cobalt's role in the energy transition. China is spearheading a 40.7 percent surge in EV and hybrid adoption, supported by aggressive pricing and subsidies.
China remained the largest growth market as domestic automakers outpaced foreign rivals. European sales rebounded from setbacks early in the year, with stricter emissions penalties set to drive further adoption in 2025.
Despite US market uncertainties, growing EV demand globally will sustain cobalt's importance, although supply chain challenges and alternative battery technologies may influence its trajectory.
“As LFP becomes increasingly dominant in China, sentiment for cobalt chemicals used in batteries has turned more bearish,” Aubry said. “A downturn in demand may put sulfate refiners under additional pressure, particularly at a time where the current market dynamics already present significant challenges due to prices.”
Rising copper, nickel production boosts cobalt glut
Another factor that could lead to additional cobalt surpluses is the production correlation with copper and nickel.
A November 2024 Fastmarkets report notes that 76 percent of global cobalt supply comes from copper-cobalt mines in the DRC. This by-product status exposes cobalt to market dynamics in the copper space.
In 2024, copper production in the region was on the rise, which in turn weighed on the cobalt market.
“But with cobalt demand remaining decidedly sluggish, copper’s upward trajectory will continue to fuel cobalt oversupply and, combined with the fact that copper production is poised to expand further, this will keep cobalt prices under pressure,” the Fastmarkets report reads.
A similar picture is playing out in Indonesia, where cobalt is mined as a by-product of nickel.
Indonesia’s rise as a cobalt powerhouse is poised to reshape the market, fueled by its booming MHP production. In 2024, the country supplied 10 percent of global cobalt, up from 7 percent in 2023, driven by Chinese-backed investments in nickel laterite ore projects using high-pressure acid leach technology.
Despite weak nickel prices, these projects are ensuring long-term cobalt output growth, with MHP-derived cobalt production projected to rise by a sizeable 17 percent in 2025.
Producers are increasingly favoring cobalt metal over sulfate due to higher profitability and easier storage.
Additionally, cobalt from Indonesia may be immune to US tariffs — that's in contrast to Chinese cobalt, which faces a 25 percent import tariff, as per Fastmarkets. “That possibility could raise concerns about shifting global supply dynamics and increase the pressure on cobalt prices," the firm explains.
Due to these factors, Fastmarkets is expecting a continued surplus of 21,000 metric tons in 2025, a slight decrease from 2024’s glut of 25,000 metric tons. Increased copper and nickel production is driving this trend, but challenges loom.
Weak nickel pricing, driven by Indonesia’s rapid growth, is squeezing producers in higher-cost regions like Australia and Canada, threatening project viability. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions, trade barriers and a strong US dollar could further disrupt cobalt flows, especially from Chinese-backed Indonesian operations. The market’s trajectory will depend heavily on economic conditions, trade dynamics and evolving technologies, the report concludes.
Ethical supply concerns continue
As the global mining sector faces increased scrutiny for its extraction practices, the DRC’s cobalt industry has proven to be a focal point for sustainability and social governance concerns.
Child labor at artisanal and small-scale cobalt mines in the country has drawn international attention, prompting the US Department of International Labor to establish a program to fight cobalt-related child labor in the DRC.
Since its inception in 2018, the project has trained 458 stakeholders from the government, civil society and the private sector on fighting child labor. Its other accomplishments include introducing tools like the Bureau of International Labor Affairs' Comply Chain to 28 mining entities in Lualaba and Haut-Katanga.
While these are moves in the right direction, the long-running negative attention that the DRC’s cobalt sector has faced could be a deterrent to new capital entering the country.
“Alternatives to the DRC are likely to become more attractive to investors if it can sidestep other potential pitfalls, such as high refining energy costs. Until a more sustainable supply chain is embedded, or there are more substantial regulations implemented to limit the prevalence of artisanal mining, prices are unlikely to see a premium for sustainably sourced cobalt in the immediate term,” Aubry told the Investing News Network.
Trump’s tough tariff talk
Although Indonesian supply may be exempt from current US trade rules, that could change in the near term.
The re-election of US President Donald Trump has introduced significant uncertainty into the cobalt market, particularly concerning the future of electric vehicle (EV) policies and potential trade measures.
Industry participants have expressed concerns that Trump may reverse existing EV legislation, notably the Inflation Reduction Act, which has been instrumental in channeling approximately US$312 billion into US EV production and infrastructure. The American president has previously indicated intentions to "end the electric vehicle mandate on day one" in a bid to "save the auto industry from complete obliteration."
Despite these statements, the proliferation of EV manufacturing facilities in predominantly Republican states suggests that any policy reversals could face resistance due to the economic benefits they bring to local communities.
Stricter tariffs on Chinese-origin cobalt and EVs is also a concern among market watchers.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Fortune Minerals and Mawson Finland are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
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ASX Cobalt Stocks: 4 Biggest Companies in 2024
Investors are keen to learn more about cobalt due to its role in the electric vehicle sector. Here's an overview of the largest cobalt stocks on the ASX by market cap.
Strong electric vehicle (EV) sales have been driving up demand for key battery raw materials in recent years. EVs require lithium-ion batteries to run, and each battery could contain up to 15 kilograms of cobalt.
This means that as demand for EVs increases, so too will demand for cobalt — and, as one of the top four cobalt-producing countries in the world, Australia finds itself in a position to capitalise on this demand.
About 74 percent of global cobalt output comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). However, Australia is proving to be a solid contender; though it is only responsible for 2 percent of the world’s cobalt production, it holds about 15.5 percent of global reserves. Moreover, while the DRC’s labour and mining practices have often been labeled unethical and unsustainable, Australian miners are focused on safer, more environmentally friendly practices.
While cobalt prices haven't recovered from their fall in early 2023, EV demand is expected to be strong in the long term.
When it comes to getting exposure to the Australian market, large players may be a good place to start.
Read on for a look at the biggest cobalt stocks on the ASX sorted by market cap. All market cap and share price data was obtained on November 29, 2024, using TradingView's stock screener.
Company ProfileMarket cap: AU$69.89 million
Share price: AU$0.34
Ardea Resources' primary focus is developing its wholly owned Kalgoorlie nickel project, which the company says “hosts the largest nickel-cobalt resource in the developed world.”
Located in Western Australia, the project includes the Goongarrie Hub deposit.
A 2023 prefeasibility study shows that the Goongarrie Hub has an ore reserve of 194.1 million tonnes at 0.05 percent cobalt and 0.7 percent nickel, resulting in 99,000 tonnes of contained cobalt and 1.36 million tonnes of contained nickel.
The study indicates that this resource would support an open-pit mining operation with a 40 year mine life and annual output of 2,000 tonnes of cobalt and 30,000 tonnes of nickel.
In late March, the company shared that a detailed hydrogeology drilling program had commenced to quantify long-term water supply. Ardea is now working on a definitive feasibility study (DFS) with funding from its strategic partners, Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. (TSE:5713) and Mitsubishi (TSE:8058).
The DFS is slated for completion in the second half of 2025.
Company ProfileMarket cap: AU$34.37 million
Share price: AU$0.069
Cobalt Blue Holdings focuses solely on cobalt and is enthusiastic about the metal’s ethical and environmental potential within the renewable energy market. The company owns the New South Wales-based Broken Hill project, a cobalt asset that it says adheres to Australian labour and sustainability standards, and is planning the Kwinana cobalt-nickel refinery.
In November 2023, Cobalt Blue released the results of its cobalt-nickel refinery study. During Stage 1, the proposed refinery will process third-party feedstock and will have a capacity of 3,000 tonnes of cobalt sulphate per year, along with 1,000 tonnes of nickel sulphate annually. Stage 2 will have the option to include potential feedstock from Broken Hill. The study projects stable margins throughout potential cobalt price fluctuations.
A few days later, the company announced that its potential partner for the refinery is Iwatani (TSE:8088), a battery minerals trader. According to Cobalt Blue, if everything goes through as planned, the refinery will be constructed on Iwatani's property in Western Australia's Kwinana industrial area.
Cobalt Blue provided another update on the refinery in early October, reporting that construction is set to commence in the first half of 2025, with completion expected within 12 months.
Company ProfileMarket cap: AU$29.73 million
Share price: AU$0.011
Jervois Global is focused on producing battery minerals, with a specific emphasis on cobalt. Jervois boasts operations worldwide and hopes to become the only cobalt miner in the US at its Idaho Cobalt Operation (ICO).
In mid-2023, the company won US$15 million from the US Department of Defense (DoD) to fund drilling at ICO, as well as a bankable feasibility study for the construction of a US cobalt refinery. Resource drilling began at ICO's Sunshine deposit shortly after, while work on a bankable feasibility study for the cobalt refinery was launched last October.
The company hopes to complete the study in the fourth quarter of 2024.
DoD-funded resource-extension drilling at the RAM deposit kicked off in March of this year.
The following month, Jervois completed its maiden resource estimate for Sunshine as part of its deliverables under the DoD agreement. The deposit hosts an inferred resource of 520,000 tonnes at 0.5 percent cobalt, 0.68 percent copper and 0.49 grams per tonne gold at a cut-off grade of 0.25 percent cobalt, for 5.75 million pounds of contained cobalt. Jervois is aiming to complete a bankable feasibility study for RAM in 2024's fourth quarter.
In June, Jervois inked a memorandum of understanding with current customer Global Tungsten & Powders to evaluate the latter potentially making a minority equity investment in Jervois’ proposed US cobalt refinery. The company announced in October that it is on track to complete the bankable feasibility study for the refinery in Q4 2024.
Company ProfileMarket cap: AU$18.22 million
Share price: AU$0.225
Norway-focused Kuniko is targeting three metals key for the EV industry: cobalt, nickel and copper.
The majority of its assets are in Norway, including its Skuterud cobalt project, Undal-Nyberget copper project and Ringerike battery metals project. Ringerike hosts the past-producing Ertelien nickel-copper-cobalt target.
In its quarterly report for September 2023, Kuniko highlighted significant developments, including an investment of AU$7.8 million by Stellantis (NYSE:STLA), which acquired a 19.99 percent interest in Kuniko and secured a 35 percent offtake for future production of nickel and cobalt sulphate from Kuniko's Norwegian projects for nine years.
In April, the company released a maiden resource estimate for Ertelien showing 23.3 million tonnes of inferred resources containing 49,700 tonnes of nickel, 37,300 tonnes of copper and 3,300 tonnes of cobalt.
That includes high-grade sulphide resources of 4.59 million tonnes at 0.03 percent cobalt and disseminated sulphide resources of 18.68 million tonnes of 0.01 percent cobalt.
Kuniko undertook a second phase expansion drill program over the summer at Ertelien. “Our aim is to demonstrate progress towards developing a Voisey Bay style resource as a potential new source of critical battery metals for European industries,” company CEO Antony Beckmand stated. The assay results were published in September, and will be incorporated into an updated resource estimate to be released in Q4 2024.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, currently hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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Graphite Market Forecast: Top Trends for Graphite in 2025
Geopolitics, weak prices and supply growth are among the key factors set to drive the graphite market in 2025.
The natural graphite market faced pressure in 2024 as supply and demand trends created a deficit.
As the year progressed, slower-than-forecast end-use segment demand, production uncertainty and moderate investment in capacity growth outside of China remained the dominant sector themes.
A late-year recovery in global electric vehicle (EV) sales and a positive long-term demand outlook have positioned the graphite market for a mild recovery in 2025. However, with China dominating global supply, factors such as geopolitical tensions, export restrictions and policy changes could quickly alter the landscape.
“The risks to relying on China have really been highlighted over the last year. (In December 2023), China announced export licenses for graphite products," James Willoughby, senior research analyst for graphite, energy transition and battery raw materials at Wood Mackenzie, explained to the Investing News Network (INN).
"While they didn’t amount to much overall, China has once again threatened to tighten export controls this year, which could prevent battery anode producers receiving the raw materials required."
The synthetic graphite market is less exposed to Chinese disruption as it is less geographically concentrated.
“Although synthetic graphite producers are better off, natural graphite anode producers are almost completely reliant on China, so there’s a lot of concern around this at the moment,” Willoughby added.
Even though the Wood Mackenzie expert doesn’t foresee China limiting exports, incoming rules on US imports are adding pressure on North America to grow its domestic supply chain. “While we expect China to continue to allow battery-related exports, companies are looking to diversify their supply to reduce the risk,” he said.
“On top of this, there is a need to shift away from China for the US battery supply chain. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) specifies that by 2027, any batteries that contain graphite from China won’t be eligible for substantial tax credits. While it’s not clear which of these will remain under the new administration, we expect the requirements for non-Chinese material to continue.”
Graphite market facing dual supply challenges
Natural graphite production ballooned in 2022, when global mine supply reached 1,680,000 metric tons, a 73.9 percent increase from 2020’s 966,000 metric tons. Global output then registered a small 4.6 percent decline in 2023, totaling 1,600,000 metric tons; however, the reduction was enough to send the market into deficit.
According to Tony Alderson, senior analyst for Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the shortfall in the graphite sector has been attributed to rising demand from the battery anode segment.
“EV demand is set to rise by nearly 400 percent over the next decade. As such, the need for both natural and synthetic graphite is rising notably in line with this,” Alderson wrote in an email to INN.
“With regards to this increased demand, the natural graphite balance is already not holding up, with a 2024 deficit of nearly 150,000 metric tons per annum (tpa) emerging.”
Conversely, the synthetic graphite market is experiencing a supply glut.
“On the side of synthetic graphite, it is faring a little better when talking about the market balance as supply is stronger. The market is in a notable oversupply of 350,000 tpa, which is set to reach a deficit beyond the end of the decade,” Alderson commented. “One of the reasons for this chemistry disparity is due to the greater supply and ease of building a facility in a far (shorter) time period than with natural (graphite).”
Although the 2025 supply narrative is different, the future of both markets looks similar, Alderson noted.
“Despite this, the currently announced supply is simply not enough to meet the forecasted demand out to 2034, with both (segments) reaching deficits of over 600,000 tpa, which are only set to widen out to 2040,” he said.
In a 2022 report, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence notes that some 300 new mines are needed to support the energy transition, a percentage of which will need to be graphite mines.
“We forecast battery sector demand for raw material graphite to rise by more than 1,400 percent between 2020 and 2050,” it states. “By the end of the forecast period, total graphite demand could be three times the 2021 supply level.”
Shifting battery chemistries complicate forecast
Use in the EV sector is underpinning graphite demand; however, as battery chemistries continue to shift, experts believe supply and demand fundamentals for the commodity could change.
The rapid evolution of battery chemistries has posed significant challenges. While the shift in cathode materials from nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) to lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) in China has garnered much attention, similar transformations are also occurring within the anode market, explained Willoughby.
“China now primarily uses synthetic graphite anode materials as it’s faster to build out new production and easier to get the raw materials,” he said. “However, that has led to a massive oversupply for synthetic due to the number of new companies in the market, and in the natural (graphite market) demand has really fallen away in the last year.”
While NMC cathodes and natural graphite anodes are still quite popular outside of China, slower demand growth in 2024 has seen many of the major anode producers cut back output, he added.
Looking longer term, Willoughby admitted that the market could become opaque.
“It’s been a challenge to keep the ever-evolving supply and demand dynamics in check, particularly when the market has to increasingly consider regional regulations like the IRA," the expert noted.
“We see China continuing to operate at a surplus over the next decade because of its existing capacity, but the rest of the world still looks to need more capacity for both natural and synthetic anodes if it wants to meet its own demand.”
This position was reiterated by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence’s Alderson, who referenced the mounting geopolitical tensions between the east and west as a pain point in the long-term ex-China market buildout.
“China dominates not only natural graphite production (76 percent), but also downstream markets, controlling 79 percent of natural graphite anode and 98 percent of synthetic graphite anode supply globally," he said.
“This highlights that the deeper into the supply chain you go, the more entrenched China’s dominance becomes. They form the backbone of the anode supply chain, and it will be a challenge for the west to break.”
Alderson pointed to China’s December 3, 2024, implementation of an immediate ban on dual-use exports intended for US military applications, along with heightened end-use reviews for exports like graphite to the US.
Building a North American supply pipeline
To offset Chinese control, the US has taken notable steps to create onshore supply.
“Since the US IRA’s announcement in August 2022, over 500,000 tpa of anode capacity has been added, (which is) over a 200 percent+ increase,” said Alderson.
This move has been supported by government funding.
In November, 2023 South Star Battery Metals (TSXV:STS,OTCQB:STSBF), received a US$3.2 million grant from the Department of Defense (DoD) under the IRA to advance its flagship BamaStar graphite project in Alabama.
Similarly, Graphite One’s (TSXV:GPH,OTCQX:GPHOF) Alaska-focused subsidiary received a US$37.5 million DoD grant in July 2023 to cover costs associated with an accelerated feasibility study on the Graphite Creek project.
In September of the same year, Graphite One penned a US$4.7 million contract with the DoD’s Logistics Agency to develop a graphite- and graphene-based foam fire suppressant.
“Private companies are also ramping up onshoring efforts by inking offtake agreements with US anode producers, setting a record in 2024 for such deals,” Alderson explained to INN. “Despite these advancements, North America faces a 200,000 tpa market deficit in 2024, expected to grow as EV demand accelerates. As such, notable investment will be required to drive growth and achieve any form of self-sufficiency,” he added.
As new North American supply becomes imperative, the sole continental producer, Northern Graphite (TSXV:NGC,OTCQB), faced challenges in the low-price environment of 2024.
“While we are also moving forward to open a new pit at LDI and restart the plant at a higher throughput in January to meet rising demand, unless we can see our way through to higher prices, long-term supply agreements with battery makers and support from governments in Ontario, Quebec, Canada and/or the United States, the Company will continue to struggle whilst these challenging market conditions prevail for ourselves and the rest of the industry,” CEO Hugues Jacquemin said in a third quarter update released by the company in late November.
To aid in offsetting these pressures, Northern Graphite was able to negotiate a price increase with its customers in early January 2025 to mitigate inflation and higher production costs.
What trends will drive graphite in 2025?
As 2025 progresses, both market experts offered insight on which trends could be the most impactful.
“We’re expecting more bifurcation of the China and ex-China markets,” Wood Mackenzie’s Willoughby said.
“In 2024, we saw domestic Chinese prices sink much more rapidly and to a greater extent than export prices,” he said. “We expect them to remain low in 2025, but for US and European benchmarks to begin to climb again as the shift away from China as their major supplier creates tightness in that market.”
The volume needed in North America is likely to provide price insulation for graphite produced outside of China.
“Given the relative lack of ex-China mines, new production isn’t expected to dent this outlook too much,” he added.
For Alderson, volatility will reign supreme in the first half of 2025.
“Excess inventory overhang of battery-grade -100 mesh is expected to sustain high supply levels through 2025 despite forecasted reduction in production costs within the Chinese market,” he said. “Consequently, prices are forecasted to decline further in H1 2025, averaging US$413 per metric ton, down 22 percent year-over-year.”
He sees more stability materializing in the latter half of the year.
“In H2 2025, prices are set to recover moderately as inventories shrink and stock levels normalize, with China's overall production experiencing a gradual recovery,” he said. “However, ongoing competition from synthetic graphite for battery end-use applications will likely cap price growth.”
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Metals Australia and International Graphite are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
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ASX Graphite Stocks: 5 Biggest Companies
Many market watchers believe graphite miners and explorers are poised to do well in the coming years. Read on to learn about the five largest ASX-listed graphite companies by market cap.
Graphite isn’t just used for pencils — it's also a key electric vehicle (EV) battery component due to its high conductivity and quick-charging capacity. As EV sales rise, experts believe this battery metal will also take flight.
With the graphite forecast looking hopeful, investors are searching for ways to get exposure to the sector. Australian investors can look to the ASX, which is home to a slew of companies focused on the graphite market.
When learning about an industry, it's often a good idea to start with key players, and here the Investing News Network has compiled a list of the largest graphite-focused companies on the ASX by market cap. Data was collected using TradingView's stock screener on July 10, 2024. Read on to learn more about Australia's largest graphite companies.
Company ProfileMarket cap: AU$403.35 million; share price: AU$0.705
Sovereign Metals is focused on advancing on its Kasiya rutile-graphite project in Malawi. Rutile is a mineral consisting of titanium dioxide that's often used to produce titanium metal. Kasiya's graphite co-product mineral resource estimate is 1.8 billion tonnes at 1.4 percent graphite, containing over 24.4 million tonnes of graphite. The company believes this material has the potential to be used to supply spherical purified graphite for the lithium-ion battery anode market.
Major miner Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) has made a series of strategic investments in Sovereign Metals over the past year totalling AU$58.9 million, giving it a 19.76 percent stake in the company as of July.
Company ProfileMarket cap: AU$331.17 million; share price: AU$0.31
Syrah Resources is an industrial minerals and technology company with a vision of becoming a leading global supplier of graphite and battery anode products. The company's two main focuses right now are its flagship Balama graphite project in Mozambique and its Vidalia anode materials facility in Louisiana, US.
Syrah’s Balama operation has a projected lifespan of over 50 years, and its combined mining and processing operations allow for the production of 94 to 98 percent pure carbon graphite concentrate.
Syrah reached a milestone in April with the sale of 10,000 tonnes of natural graphite fines from Balama to PT Indonesia BTR New Energy Materials. This was the company's "first large volume natural graphite sale to a battery supply chain participant destination outside China." It came after the announcement of a binding offtake agreement with South Korea's Posco Future M (KRX:003670) as part of Syrah's efforts to expand its reach into ex-China markets.
In February, Syrah started production at the Vidalia facility, making it the first integrated graphite processor outside of China. The plant has an annual production capacity of 11,250 tonnes of active anode material.
In 2022, the company was selected to receive an up to US$220 million grant from the US Department of Energy as part of the country's Inflation Reduction Act. The funds are being used to support the financing of an expansion at Syrah's Vidalia facility that will bring its capacity to 45,000 tonnes per year.
The company has binding offtake agreements with Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Westwater Resources (NYSEAMERICAN:WWR) and Graphex Technologies, a wholly owned subsidiary of Graphex Group (NYSEAMERICAN:GRFX,HKEX:6128).
Company ProfileMarket cap: AU$228.73 million; share price: AU$0.09
Renascor Resources has honed its efforts on helping to power the future with clean energy resources. While the company has five projects, most of its activities are focused on its two fully owned projects in South Australia: the Siviour battery anode materials project and the Carnding gold project.
Renascor announced in April that the Australian government had approved a AU$185 million loan facility to help advance its planned vertically integrated battery anode material graphite mine and manufacturing operation. In July, the company was awarded a AU$5 million grant under the Australian government’s International Partnerships in Critical Minerals Program to help fund a AU$10 million demonstration plant. Both of these initiatives will help fast track Siviour.
Renascor says it’s on track for planned commissioning of the demonstration processing plant in Q2 2025. The plant will produce battery-grade purified spherical graphite.
Company ProfileMarket cap: AU$214.56 million; share price: AU$0.55
Talga Group is a vertically integrated battery anode and materials company, meaning it mines its own graphite and also produces anodes. It has operations in Sweden, Japan, Australia, Germany and the UK.
Last year, Talga received environmental approval for its Nunasvaara South graphite mine, which forms part of its vertically integrated Vittangi anode project in Sweden; it also got an environmental permit for its Luleå anode refinery, which Talga says will be Europe's first commercial natural graphite anode plant.
Construction of the plant began in the third quarter of 2023.
A FEED study for the Vittangi anode project was completed in the first quarter of 2024, and a scoping study is now underway to expand the existing initial 19,500 tonne per year production of graphite anode products. Talga is targeting Q4 of this year for the completion of the scoping study, which also includes downstream anode refinery expansions and incorporation of the company's proprietary graphite recycling technology.
Company ProfileMarket cap: AU$163.87 million; share price: AU$0.52
Quantum Graphite is advancing the Uley 2 flake graphite project in South Australia, which includes the past-producing Uley mine and the Mikkira deposit. The company bills it as “one of the largest high-grade natural flake deposits in the world.”
The project is fully permitted and development ready with a binding offtake agreement with a major European trading group for 50 percent of its production for a minimum of five years.
Through its Sunlands Power joint venture with Sunlands Energy, Quantum Graphite plans to manufacture coarse-natural-flake-based thermal storage media sourced from the Uley mine to be fitted within Sunland Energy’s patented TES Graphite Cells technology for grid-connected, long-duration energy storage.
Article by Melissa Pistilli; FAQs by Lauren Kelly.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Securities Disclosure: I, Lauren Kelly, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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Vanadium Market Forecast: Top Trends for Vanadium in 2025
Weak Chinese demand prevented vanadium price growth in 2024. Is a rebound in sight, and what factors could be tailwinds in vanadium market this year?
The vanadium market is set to shift in 2025, driven by demand from the energy storage and steel sectors.
Energy storage systems that utilize vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs) are gaining traction as renewable energy deployment accelerates, boosting demand for high-purity vanadium. However, global supply remains constrained due to limited mining projects and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in China and Russia, key producers.
Environmental regulations and advances in recycling technology may also influence supply dynamics, and market observers are watching potential price volatility tied to steel demand, the largest end use of vanadium globally.
In September 2024, China introduced new rebar standards that are anticipated to boost high-quality vanadium demand.
“Production of rebar with the new standards will increase per annum vanadium nitrogen consumption by roughly 15 percent,” a July Fastmarkets report notes. “That calculation is based on China’s 2023 rebar production volume.”
“Vanadium demand in steel alloys will rise in 2025 due to change in Chinese rebar standards. However, expected demand rise in steel will not be as high as estimated from battery manufacturing in the medium term due to slowdown in the Chinese construction industry,” said Piyush Goel, commodities consultant at CRU Group, via email“Vanadium demand in batteries is estimated to rise rapidly; this rise in demand will primarily come from China due to targeted government policies towards VRFBs," he told the Investing News Network (INN).
China, which is the leading producer of vanadium, is also expected to drive global demand in the year ahead.
“Rise in vanadium demand in the medium term (til 2029) is estimated to be heavily concentrated in China, because we estimate VRFB demand to pick up faster in China compared to other regions,” he said. “Similarly, Chinese rebar standards also changed — requiring higher-vanadium-intensity steel. Due to the rapid rise in domestic vanadium demand, China is likely to become a net importer of vanadium as the Chinese market goes into deficit from surplus.”
Vanadium demand faces rebar challenges, with limited boost from batteries
Even though Fastmarkets is calling for a 15 percent uptick in vanadium demand for rebar, this will only bring demand back up to previous levels. As Erik Sardain, principal analyst for Project Blue, explained, China’s weak construction market has caused a 15 percent year-on-year decline in domestic rebar construction.
Despite positivity in the VRFB space, Sardain doesn’t expect this to offset lower rebar demand.
“No, no, no, no, absolutely not. If you want to look worldwide, you can say that steel in general is something like 90 percent (of vanadium demand),” Sardain said in a December interview with INN.
The expert went on to point out that quantifying the amount of vanadium used in batteries and energy storage is challenging. He also questioned demand trend forecasts from the battery segment.
“I think the market got it wrong for one main reason, because the market is assuming that the vanadium redox battery for the storage system is going to be something worldwide,” he said.
“And at Project Blue, we don't think it's going to be global. We think it's going to be primarily China.”
He attributes this to the types of installations utilizing VRFB energy storage systems, telling INN that China is using the technology to power grids, while other countries are using it for small-scale applications.
Taking a more optimistic and long-term view, CRU’s Goel sees more viability in the battery and energy storage segments.
“VRFBs will have a considerable impact on the vanadium industry through the next two decades, but will play a minor role in the energy storage space — accounting for only 3.5 percent of total battery energy storage installations by 2035,” said Goel. “Although VRFBs will make up a small portion of total energy storage, they are significant consumers of vanadium and will consume the majority of global vanadium in 2035, compared to ~6 percent in 2024."
Supply picture blurred by geopolitics
As the Russia-Ukraine war continues and tensions between the US and China grow, many metals have faced volatility. These disruptions have impacted global markets, spurring policymakers to fast track new supply chains.
China’s restrictions on gallium and germanium exports in August 2023 escalated to a complete ban on shipments to the US in December 2024, intensifying global supply concerns.
Potential export caps and tariffs threaten to disrupt already fragile supply chains; however, Goel told INN that he doesn’t foresee these issues impacting the vanadium market.
“Similar trade restrictions are unlikely in vanadium, as most of the recent rise in vanadium demand is coming from China, which means China is likely to become a net importer if no new capacity is opened,” he said.
“This also means that should China become import reliant for a meaningful share of vanadium, which is to be used in two significant national industries (steel and energy storage), vanadium will move up in criticality matrices for China — moving nearer to materials like iron ore, potash and high-purity quartz.”
As demand in China picks up, Sardain anticipates the Asian nation will ramp up production. “With the current geopolitical environment, there is absolutely no way that China is going to rely on imports of vanadium,” he noted.
According to Goel, China isn’t the only country that is looking to be less reliant on imports. “Governments worldwide have recognized vanadium as a critical mineral, leading to increased support for emerging vanadium projects,” he said.
He referenced Australian company Vecco Group, which received an AU$3.8 million grant to advance the feasibility and design of a high-purity vanadium project in Brisbane.
“However, such grants are not enough to bring a project from conception to production. The current low vanadium pricing environment is a barrier to increasing ex-China capacity,” he added.
Australia to dominate growing vanadium supply capacity
While China will dominate the vanadium narrative in 2025, Australia is positioning to become a production hub.
In addition to getting its AU$3.8 million grant, Vecco’s project was granted coordinated project status by the Queensland government this past July. The status designation streamlines approvals for major developments with significant impacts, centralizing assessments and enabling public consultation.
In late December, explorer and developer QEM (ASX:QEM) also received coordinated project status from Queensland for its Julia Creek vanadium and energy project. According to a July release, a scoping study completed for Julia Creek affirms the company’s aim to produce approximately 10,571 metric tons of 99.95 percent pure vanadium pentoxide and 313 million liters of transport fuel annually over a 30 year mine life.
In mid-January, Australian Vanadium (ASX:AVL,OTC Pink:ATVVF) was granted environmental approval for its Gabanintha vanadium project in Western Australia. The approval covers a mine, concentrator, processing plant and supporting infrastructure, including a bore field and camp. The company is updating its optimized feasibility study to integrate Gabanintha into its Australian Vanadium project, one of the largest and highest-grade vanadium deposits.
How will the vanadium price perform in 2025?
Underscoring the weakness in the vanadium market, Sardain recounted factors impeding price growth.
He explained that despite several elements that should have boosted demand, the market remains surprisingly weak. Chinese monetary stimulus measures and stricter rebar standard enforcement failed to drive prices higher.
Russian vanadium pentoxide exports to China have dried up, and supply uncertainties persist in South Africa.
These conditions, which typically would have supported price increases for the battery metal, have instead had little impact, highlighting the subdued demand, especially in China.
“To be really honest, I was expecting the market to pick up in the second half of 2024,” he said.
“I was expecting this to happen, because I was looking at the interest rate in Europe, the (European Central Bank) cutting interest rates. I was expecting some kind of recovery for the European economy. I was expecting the Chinese government to be more proactive. I was expecting the property market in China to stabilize. So I was expecting some kind of rebound in the second half, which didn't take place," Sardain explained to INN.
Although the market didn’t perform to expectations in 2024, he sees promise in the months ahead.
“I think that the market is currently bottoming out. I believe that we are very close to the stabilization of the property market in China. Whether it's going to happen in Q1 or Q2 I don't know, but maybe (there will be) some kind of very, very, very mild recovery in the second half (of the year),” he said.
Highlighting the market’s positive fundamentals, CRU’s Goel said he sees a price rebound in 2025.
“We are estimating a global supply deficit in 2025 due to change in rebar standards and rise in vanadium battery demand, causing vanadium prices to rise,” said Goel. “As more supply comes online in 2026 and 2027, by 2027 vanadium prices will come down when compared to 2025 prices, but crucially remain higher than the pricing in the last 12 months.”
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Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
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Manganese Market Forecast: Top Trends for Manganese in 2025
As EV sector demand for manganese picks up, other key end-use segments are projected to see declines. What does this situation mean for the manganese market in 2025?
The manganese market was impacted by various factors in 2024, including growing demand for battery applications, geopolitical risk, production disruptions and strategic investments.
Positive demand from the electric vehicle (EV) sector offered support as automakers increasingly turned to manganese-rich chemistries like lithium-manganese-iron-phosphate (LMFP) to cut costs and reduce reliance on nickel and cobalt.
Meanwhile, supply chain vulnerabilities emerged due to political instability in major producing regions and heightened environmental scrutiny. In response, nations such as the US and Australia accelerated investments in refining facilities to reduce dependence on China and secure their EV battery supply chains.
Later in the year, oversupply from weaker-than-expected Chinese steel demand muted price growth in the space.
“Manganese sulphate prices turned bearish in Q4 … with slow spot buying in China and the effects of weather-related mine supply disruptions in Australia,” a Fastmarkets report from December reads.
Despite these challenges, the firm foresees a recovery in the manganese market in the years ahead.
“We expect demand to grow from now and into the 2030s, driven in part by new chemistries like LMFP,” Fastmarkets notes. In the short to mid-term, China’s supply base looks set to fulfil global needs of high purity manganese, though there is likely to be a long-term need for a greater high purity manganese capacity.”
Oversupply dampens manganese prices
Clare Hanna, senior steel analyst at CRU Group, recounted the most impactful 2024 trends for manganese.
“The key drivers in 2024 were the outage at South32’s (ASX:S32,OTC Pink:SHTLF)Groote Eylandt mine, the surge in alternative supplies and the weak state of Chinese demand,” she said.
“This led prices to first rise very sharply and then plummet as the market oversupply became apparent.”
South32 — the world’s largest manganese producer — saw operations suspended at its Australia-based Groote Eylandt mine in March due to a tropical cyclone. A phased return to mining began in June of last year; however, the severity of flooding due to the cyclone has impacted a wharf and the company’s ability to export.
In a statement, South32 said it expects exports to resume in Q3 2025.
Some of this reduced 2024 output was offset by purchase declines in China. As Hanna explained, Chinese demand was weak due to lower demand for steel rebar, which was driven by weakness in the Chinese real estate sector.
Prices for manganese ore could face headwinds in the year ahead as South32 continues to ramp up Groote Eylandt.
“The return of South32 to the market and the increase in high-grade supply could be a challenge, given the Chinese real estate market is not expected to improve significantly. Steel demand and production in other markets is forecast to improve,” Hanna explained to INN.
Key manganese demand drivers for 2025
Prized for their high energy density, automakers are increasingly turning to manganese-based batteries for their cost-effectiveness and reduced reliance on expensive metals like nickel and cobalt.
That said, as Hanna pointed out, the majority of manganese demand is still attributed to the steel sector.
“There is a lot of noise in the market about manganese usage in EV batteries, driven in part by companies looking for finance, and also because downstream, the processing of manganese ore for battery-grade manganese products is heavily concentrated in China at the moment," she said. “However, it is worth recognizing that in terms of manganese ore demand, the share that is going into EV supply chains is very small.”
The senior analyst went on to note that those dynamics are likely to shift in the coming years.
“While (EV sector) volume is growing and the demand from the steel sector is likely to decline over time, demand from steel supply chains will remain the dominant source of manganese ore demand, and therefore the biggest demand-side influence on manganese ore prices,” said Hanna.
She went on to explain why EV market usage has come to dominate the manganese narrative.
“When looking for investment, companies like to align their projects with growing market sectors, so when companies are talking about new mine investments, they often reference the EV supply chain — even if in practice, most of the ore will likely go to ferroalloy producers for consumption in steel production.”
New manganese sources outside of China
Like so many of the battery metals, the manganese supply chain is dominated by China, a factor many western nations are grappling with. In an effort to bolster supply outside of China, significant investments were made in 2024.
“What we are seeing is a number of projects aimed at producing high-purity manganese sulfate monohydrate (HPMSM) outside of China (in order to) reduce OEM EV battery supply chain risk, or take advantage of the benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act. Some of these are aligned with new or existing upstream mines,” said Hanna.
Although the plan looks good on paper, the CRU steel specialist pointed out the challenges of building HPMSM supply independent of China. She noted that operational plants are a couple of years off at minimum.
“Production of HPMSM is a chemical process, so existing producers of manganese metal or other manganese chemicals would be able to move into this product area more easily than ferroalloy producers, although there are still a lot of technical challenges. There are no ferroalloy producers outside of China moving to produce HPMSM," Hanna added.
Some of the projects in the pipeline include the Manganese Metal Company’s HPMSM Metal to Crystal project in South Africa. Described as a more sustainable process, the Metal to Crystal production method will start with a 5,000 metric ton per annum plant in 2028, followed by a 30,000 metric ton per annum plant, targeted beyond 2030.
In addition to that, Hanna spoke about South32’s Arizona-based Hermosa manganese-zinc project, which received a US$20 million grant from the US Department of Defense in May 2024. The monies have been earmarked for the acceleration of domestic production of battery-grade manganese.
Manganese processing plants have also attracted US government funding.
In September, Element 25 (ASX:E25:OTCQX:ELMT) secured a US$166 million grant from the US Department of Energy under the Battery Materials Processing Grant Program.
The funding will support the construction of the firm’s HPMSM facility in Louisiana. The grant is in addition to US$115 million already secured from offtake partners General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Stellantis (NYSE:STLA).
The feedstock for the Louisiana plant will originate from Element 25’s Butcherbird mine in Australia. In November, the company released a new resource estimate for the planned expansion at Butcherbird.
According to the company, the new estimate registers a 142 percent increase in measured and indicated resources, which now total 130 million metric tons at 10.23 percent manganese.
Additionally, the site hosts a total resource of 274 million metric tons at 10 percent manganese.
Hanna also referenced Euro Manganese (TSXV:EMN,OTCQB:EUMNF), which is developing a project in the Czech Republic using manganese from old mine tailings, as well as looking at plans for a plant in Québec, Canada.
“Firebird Metals (ASX:FRB,OTC Pink:FRBMF) (in) Australia, has adopted an alternative approach,” she said. “They are partnering with a Chinese group to build an HPMSM plant in China, which could eventually be supplied with ore from an Australian mine.”
What trends will drive manganese in 2025?
While these supply chain diversification efforts aim to secure and steady output, Hanna warned of trends to watch in 2025. Top of mind is South32’s Groote Eylandt mine and its ability to restart shipments.
In South Africa, she highlighted national rail operator Transnet's plans for expansion.
“Transnet’s plans for the new port and rail infrastructure at Coega in South Africa are still some way off,” said Hanna. “The company’s performance on the existing rail network and ability to open up the routes beyond traditional miners will influence how much ore needs to be moved via the higher cost rail route.”
Plans remain distant, while inefficiencies in the existing rail network could raise transport costs.
Meanwhile, manganese producer Eramet (EPA:ERA), has faced challenges to its production expansion plans at the Moanda project in Gabon. Hanna noted that Gabon’s production expansion in Moanda faces delays due to weak demand, compounded by past disruptions from railway landslides.
“These (plans) were slowed in Q4 by weak demand,” she said. “Work continues on improvements to the Trans Gabon Railway. Landslides and derailments in the past have disrupted supply causing ore price volatility.”
A resolution to the war in Ukraine could also serve as a catalyst to the 2025 supply and demand story.
“Historically, Ukraine was a significant producer and consumer of manganese alloys. Both have been slowed by the war. In the event of a ceasefire this year, supply is likely to return faster than demand as the large Mauripol steel plant was destroyed during the Russian invasion,” she added.
According to Hanna, key areas to watch as the year progresses are trade actions and carbon taxes.
These include the US investigation into ferrosilicon imports from several countries, as well as potential broad tariffs from the incoming Trump administration.
Elsewhere, the EU’s probe into manganese alloys and ferrosilicon may raise regional prices
“The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is due to come in at the beginning of 2026. Ferromanganese is covered, silicomanganese is not," said Hanna. “There is a lot of uncertainty about the impact of this.”
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Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
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