Within hours of the report's publication, Aya’s share price on the TSX fell by more than 21 percent, dropping from C$15.50 to C$12.13. Calling the claims “misleading and inaccurate,” Aya moved quickly to refute the allegations in a same-day press release and a subsequent interview with Golden Portfolio’s Garrett Goggin the next day.
La Salle has said the company is considering taking legal action against Blue Orca.
What is Blue Orca claiming about Aya Gold & Silver?
Blue Orca dives directly into claiming that Aya's 2021 resource estimate for the Zgounder mine intentionally overstates its silver resources by over 100 percent, adding more than 50 million “phantom ounces."
In its short-seller report, the firm explains that after comparing cut-off tables and block model maps from the March 2021 resource for Zgounder and the December 2021 update, it discovered "smoking guns" that led it to believe Aya manipulated a computer model to find those extra ounces.
“In our opinion, this explains why grades are plummeting, production has been dire, and cash flows are anemic despite soaring silver prices," states Blue Orca, pointing to lower-grade production of around 0.32 ounces of silver per metric ton mined out of Zgounder compared to the 0.65 ounces per metric ton outlined in the feasibility study.
The report’s authors suggest that the resource estimate was easily manipulated because it was, in their opinion, not prepared by an independent geologist. They allege the veteran geo who signed off on the estimate was a business associate of Aya's CEO, implying collusion to mislead investors.
Aya Gold & Silver pushes back on “short scam”
Aya has vociferously refuted Blue Orca’s claims. In its September 26 interview with Golden Portfolio’s Goggin, La Salle calls the short report “wrong from the first page to the last page."
What’s the why for Blue Orca’s claims against Aya’s management, operations and resource base?
Quite simply, Aya believes the short seller stands to benefit monetarily by manipulating market sentiment in such a way as to drive down the company’s share price. ‘There are no missing ounces,” said La Salle, who informed Goggin that Blue Orca never bothered to call the company to verify its numbers.
In its press release, Aya states that the 10 million ounces of silver mined out of Zgounder since 2020, and the fact that production continues to line up with the resource base, are both strong testaments to the reliability of the December 2021 resource model. La Salle reiterated that point in his interview with Goggin: "We are reconciling every month the metal that is taken out of the ground to the metal that’s in the model. We have perfect reconciliation."
In regards to the independence of Zgounder’s mineral resource estimate, the company says it was prepared and verified by independent qualified persons at P&E Mining Consultants, in compliance with NI 43-101 standards.
In the YouTube interview with Goggin, La Salle assures investors there has been “no collusion” to mislead the market. He also notes the fact that the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development hired an independent technical advisor to conduct a rigorous third-party review before agreeing to a construction loan.
When asked by Goggin about falling grades and rising costs at Zgounder, La Salle acknowledged that silver grades did come down too much during the mine expansion phase. However, he explained that the decrease in grades was due in large part to overblasting in the open pit, less selective mining and more bulk mining.
Aya has made corrections to the mining methods and the resulting grades are improving.
The current resource model is based on 121,500 meters of drilling, 45,500 meters of which were conducted between March 2021 and December 2021. Aya’s press release points out that the extensive drilling (231,000 meters) carried out on the property since then has continued to increase confidence in the resource estimate.
The company is planning to publish an updated technical report by the end of this year that will include an independently modeled resource, and a new mine plan incorporating both open-pit and underground operations. La Salle told Goggin that Aya’s guidance for next year on a forward-looking basis will likely be 6 million ounces of silver with US$25 per ounce margins, translating onto a US$150 million in operating cashflow coming from the mine.
“When we did the 2021 model it was US$22 silver, US$10 all in, US$12 margin. Now we’re US$45 silver, US$20 all in and US$25 margin. So on a margin basis, this mine is much more robust than anticipated,” he said.
As of September 25, Aya said it has about US$115 million in cash and is continuing to generate operating cashflow out of Zgounder. This is why the company is able to self-fund growth at its Boumadine project, where it is on track to deliver a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) before the year comes to a close.
Once the Zgounder updated technical report and resource estimate and Boumadine PEA are out later this year, La Salle believes Aya shareholders will see a recovery in the company’s stock value.
Shares of Aya regained the lost value quickly, ending the month at C$16.10.
