The Conversation (0)
The main indicators, estimated financial information and key elements impacting TotalEnergies' (Paris:TTE) (LSE:TTE) (NYSE:TTE) third quarter 2026 aggregates are shown below:
Main indicators
|
|
| 3Q26 | 2Q26 | 1Q26 | 4Q25 | 3Q25 | ||||||
| €/$ |
| 1.15 | 1.16 | 1.17 | 1.16 | 1.17 | ||||||
| Brent | ($/b) | 97.0 | 103.8 | 81.1 | 63.7 | 69.1 | ||||||
| TTF | ($/Mbtu) | 21.5 | 15.6 | 13.7 | 10.3 | 11.3 | ||||||
| Average liquids price * (1) | ($/b) | 87.1 | 91.6 | 73.7 | 61.4 | 66.5 | ||||||
| Average gas price * (1) | ($/Mbtu) | 7.00 | 5.55 | 5.59 | 5.11 | 5.50 | ||||||
| Average LNG price ** (1) | ($/Mbtu) | 12.28 | 10.20 | 8.48 | 8.48 | 8.91 | ||||||
| European Refining Margin Marker (ERM) *** | ($/b) | 33.2 | 13.5 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 8.4 | ||||||
| * Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated affiliates. | ||||||||||||
| ** Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated and equity affiliates. | ||||||||||||
| *** This market indicator for European refining, calculated based on public market prices ($/b), uses a basket of crudes, petroleum product yields and variable costs representative of the European refining system of TotalEnergies. | ||||||||||||
| (1) Does not include oil, gas and LNG trading activities, respectively. | ||||||||||||
Main elements impacting the 3 rd quarter 2026 aggregates
- Hydrocarbon production is expected to increase, reaching 2.45-2.50 Mboe/d, benefiting from a reduced impact of the Middle East conflict, which is estimated to be only around 5% of the Company's overall production. Excluding Middle East impact, the production is expected to grow more than 4% compared to the third quarter of 2025, above the annual guidance of 3%.
- Exploration & Production results are expected to reflect production growth and the sensitivity to lower oil prices and higher gas prices compared to the previous quarter.
- Integrated LNG results are expected to rise sharply, driven by the 20% increase of average LNG price since last quarter and by the outperformance of LNG and gas trading activities in a bull market, driven by the prolonged conflict in the Strait of Hormuz and expectation for strong winter demand.
- Downstream results and cash flow are expected to reach exceptional levels, with a very sharp increase of $2 billion for Refining & Chemicals cash flow compared to the second quarter. The 10% refining throughput increase enabled the Company to fully capture historically high refining margins in Europe and worldwide. Oil trading activities continue to outperform on a level consistent with the previous two quarters. Marketing & Services is expected to also maintain its strong performance.
- Integrated Power results and cash flow are expected to benefit from the expected contribution from TTEP (JV between EPH and TotalEnergies) over a full quarter, with a cash flow anticipated between $750 and $800 million.
- A positive working capital contribution of around $3 billion is anticipated over the quarter.
2026 Sensitivities*
|
| Change | Estimated impact on adjusted net operating income | Estimated impact on cash flow from operations | |||
| Dollar | +/- 0.1 $ per € | -/+ 0.1 B$ | ~0 B$ | |||
| Average liquids price ** | +/- 10 $/b | +/- 2.3 B$ | +/- 2.8 B$ | |||
| European gas price – TTF | +/- 2 $/Mbtu | +/- 0.4 B$ | +/- 0.4 B$ | |||
| European Refining Margin Marker (ERM) | +/- 1 $/b | +/- 0.3 B$ | +/- 0.4 B$ | |||
| * Sensitivities are revised once per year upon publication of the previous year's fourth quarter results. Sensitivities are estimates based on assumptions about TotalEnergies' portfolio in 2026. Actual results could vary significantly from estimates based on the application of these sensitivities. The impact of the $-€ sensitivity on adjusted net operating income is essentially attributable to Refining & Chemicals. | ||||||
| ** In a 60-70 $/b Brent environment. | ||||||
Disclaimer
Unless otherwise stated, the terms "TotalEnergies", "TotalEnergies company" and "Company" in this document are used to designate TotalEnergies SE and the consolidated entities directly or indirectly controlled by TotalEnergies SE. Likewise, the words "we", "us" and "our" may also be used to refer to these entities or their employees. The entities in which TotalEnergies SE directly or indirectly owns a shareholding are separate and independent legal entities. The term "Corporation" as used in this document exclusively refers to TotalEnergies SE, which is the parent company of the Company.
The data presented in this document is based on TotalEnergies' internal preliminary reporting and is not audited. This data is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of all items that will affect TotalEnergies SE's results or to provide an estimate of 2026 quarterly results. Actual results may vary. To the extent permitted by law, TotalEnergies SE disclaims all liability from the use of this data.
This document may contain forward-looking statements (including forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995), notably with respect to the financial condition, results of operations, business activities and strategy of TotalEnergies and expectations regarding returns to stockholders, including with respect to future dividends and share buybacks. This document may also contain statements regarding the outlook, objectives, areas of improvement, goals and ambitions of TotalEnergies SE, including with respect to climate change and carbon neutrality. An ambition expresses an outcome desired by TotalEnergies, it being specified that the means to be deployed do not depend solely on TotalEnergies.
These forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of the future or conditional tense or forward-looking words such as "will", "should", "could", "would", "may", "likely", "might", "envisions", "intends", "anticipates", "believes", "estimates", "considers", "plans", "expects", "thinks", "targets", "has an ambition to", "commits", "aims" or similar terminology. Such forward-looking statements included in this document are based on economic data, estimates and assumptions prepared in a given economic, competitive and regulatory environment and considered to be reasonable by TotalEnergies as of the date of publication of this document.
These forward-looking statements are not historical data and should not be interpreted as assurances that the outlook, objectives, goals or ambitions announced will be achieved. They are uncertain and may change or be modified with a significant difference between the actual results and those initially estimated, due to the uncertainties notably related to the economic, financial, competitive and regulatory environment, or due to the occurrence of risk factors, such as, notably, fluctuations in the price of crude oil and natural gas, changes in demand and prices of petroleum products, changes in production levels and estimates of reserves, the ability to achieve cost reductions and operating efficiencies without unduly disrupting business operations, changes in laws and regulations including those related to the environment and climate, currency fluctuations, technological innovations, meteorological conditions and events, as well as socio-demographic, economic and political developments, changes in market conditions, loss of market share and changes in consumer preferences, pandemics, and other risk factors described in the Corporation's regulatory filings, including its Universal Registration Document filed with the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers, its Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") and its other reports filed or furnished with the SEC.
Readers are cautioned not to consider forward-looking statements as certain, but as an expression of the Corporation's views only as of the date this document is published.
TotalEnergies SE and its subsidiaries undertake no obligation, make no commitment and expressly disclaim any responsibility to investors or any stakeholder to update or revise, particularly as a result of new information or future events, any forward-looking information or statements, objectives or trends contained in this document. In addition, the Corporation has not verified, and is under no obligation to verify any third-party data contained in this document or used in the estimates and assumptions or, more generally, forward-looking statements published in this document. The information on risk factors that could have a significant adverse effect on TotalEnergies' business, financial condition, including its operating income and cash flow, reputation, outlook or the value of financial instruments issued by TotalEnergies is provided in the most recent version of the Universal Registration Document which is filed by TotalEnergies SE with the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers and the annual report on Form 20-F filed with the SEC.
Additionally, the developments of climate change and other environmental or social issues in this document are based on various frameworks and the interests of various stakeholders which are subject to evolve independently of our will. Moreover, our disclosures on such issues, including disclosures on climate change and other environmental or social issues, may include information that is not necessarily "material" under US securities laws for SEC reporting purposes or under applicable securities law.
In addition to IFRS measures, certain alternative performance indicators are presented, such as performance indicators excluding the adjustment items described below (adjusted net operating income, adjusted net income), net cash flow, free cash flow after organic investments, normalized gearing, return on equity (ROE), return on average capital employed (ROACE), gearing ratio, cash flow from operations excluding working capital, debt adjusted cash flow, and the payout ratio. These indicators are meant to facilitate the analysis of the financial performance of TotalEnergies and the comparison of income between periods. They allow investors to track the measures used internally to manage and measure the performance of TotalEnergies.
Financial information by business segment is reported in accordance with the internal reporting system and shows internal segment information that is used to manage and measure the performance of TotalEnergies. TotalEnergies measures performance at the segment level on the basis of adjusted net operating income.
The adjusted results (adjusted net operating income, adjusted net income) are defined as replacement cost results, adjusted for special items, excluding the effect of changes in fair value. For further details on the adjustment items, please refer to the last published earnings statement and notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Euro amounts presented for the adjusted fully-diluted earnings per share represent dollar amounts converted at the average euro-dollar (€-$) exchange rate for the applicable period and are not the result of financial statements prepared in euros.
Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors – U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in the Form 20-F of TotalEnergies SE, File N° 1-10888, available from us at 2, place Jean Millier – Arche Nord Coupole/Regnault – 92078 Paris-La Défense Cedex, France, or at the Corporation's website totalenergies.com . The Form 20-F is also available from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330 or on the SEC's website.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261014547586/en/
TotalEnergies Investor Relations
+33 (0)1 47 44 46 46
ir@totalenergies.com
TotalEnergies Media Relations
+33 (0)1 47 44 46 99
presse@totalenergies.com
