Gensource Potash (TSXV:GSP) is a potash development company with a difference. We see an industry that, on the face of it, is over-supplied, where pricing is soft and demand uncertain. But that is just on the face of it.
Those knowledgeable about the potash industry know that it is a highly controlled one – where three quarters of the world’s production is controlled by a Duopoloy – the Canadians under Canpotex, and the Russians/Belarusians under the on-again, off-again Belarusian Potash Company (BPC). Not only is the production of potash controlled by the cartels, but also, the large producers create a second level of control by selling large volumes of potash to equally large SOE or SOE-like “in-country” distribution companies (in China, India, Brazil, SE Asia, etc.). That means the structure of product control is passed along from producer to distributor and on to selected wholesalers and on to the retailer and finally the agricultural producer.
As a result, there exists, on the ground, at the farmer’s gate, a significant pent-up demand for potash. Farmers around the world know about good agronomic practice, they know they should be applying more K to their fields, but they cannot always either obtain the product they need or obtain it at an economic price. Therefore, fields and crops are frequently left K-deficient. So, there is a real demand for potash, that demand is at the farmers field and much of that demand is simply not being met by the current supply and distribution structure.