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Battery materials and the growing importance of urban ore
Why existing minerals and metals in batteries will change the dynamics of the mining industry
For millennia, we’ve mined and refined materials to power our civilisations and industries, and feed consumer demand for products. This has traditionally been a linear process: dig material from the ground, purify and convert it into useful forms, manufacture products for use and then dispose of these products.
However, with electric vehicles – which are subject to technology disruption, changing regulations and uncertain geopolitical factors – driving a surge in demand for battery materials, is it time to rethink the mining value chain?
“The scale of the decarbonisation task requires a lot of new mines,” says Worley vice president, battery materials, Greg Pitt.
“But it also depends on a greater role for recycled materials already mined, which exist in batteries and other electronic devices.”
These devices – currently found within homes, warehouses, aging electrical infrastructure and more – make up the “urban orebody”. Their materials could be worth tens of billions of dollars. And if the industry can recycle these materials, it could reduce both the time to get metal to market and environmental impacts compared with traditional mining and materials processing.
So, if more minerals, metals, and battery grade materials needed for the energy transition come from recycling, rather than new mines and facilities, how will this impact established players within the mining industry?
Assessing the urban orebody
Modern technologies are capable of recycling certain commodities, such as steel, aluminium, copper and lead. As Pitt explains, when existing technologies and devices reach end of life, the materials can be economically placed back into service to create more products for consumption.
“If we consider high nickel cathode variants, the importance of recycling is emerging quickly,” he says. “This is partly because of policy settings, such as the minimum threshold for recycled content mandated by the European Battery Regulations. It’s also being driven by feedstock security needs, and some part by pure economics to maximise value streams from off spec material and production waste.
“Value chain players, particularly cathode material manufacturers, are now conceiving ‘closed loop’ systems in their investment strategies to capture and re-purpose battery waste back into their processing facilities,” says Pitt.
“This is good news for reducing the environmental impact of battery production, as it’s possible to achieve greater sustainable outcomes by using more recycled content, but there is still a hill to climb for recycling technologies to deliver efficient yield recovery economically. The battery value chain is no longer linear.”
How could the urban orebody impact the traditional mining industry?
The emergence of recycling means miners of the future can extract value from both ends of the value chain: natural resources in the earth’s crust, and the urban ore body that exists in recovered batteries, off spec cathode materials and black mass.
“This has some big implications,” says Pitt.
“Recycling materials brings an entirely new set of opportunities and challenges for miners to tackle, which could change the role miners play.”
Pitt explains why.
“For centuries, mining has involved extracting value from variable single digit ore grades, which need a lot of capital investment and involve long payback periods to bring virgin material to market.
“However, the urban orebody of the future has an extremely high content of key minerals – Cu, Ni, Li, Co, Mn, Al, Fe – which are widely distributed but relatively easily transportable to central processing. It’s also ever increasing in volume as more products are made and then reach end of life.
“And yet we don’t currently see the mining industry actively participating in taking full advantage of this opportunity.”
So, what implications could this urban ore body have on traditional miners that follow a linear mining process?
Investing in a new mine asset is typically a long and high-risk process, mainly due to the uncertainty in the quality and quantity of the ore body involved and the cost of mining and refining it. Imagine a world where these are known, and the mine life is set to infinity.
Pitt says: “Several key questions then emerge: will the urban orebody miners of the future be an entirely new set of players, or will miners diversify their models and influence both ends of the value chain?
“Will heritage miners become pure upstream suppliers of incremental virgin materials to ‘top up’ the increasingly circular system?”
Explaining the leased mineral model for battery materials
Consider the fundamental economics influencing the commercial landscape. Cathode material is the major contributor to battery cell cost. This is primarily driven by the purchase price of the key mineral feedstocks used.
“Major producers of cathode material have seen the immediate economic benefit of producing their own feedstocks from recycled materials and reducing their reliance on upstream material supply,” says Pitt.
“This is also being driven by OEM obligations to recover end of life batteries and find a partner to take and feed them back into the value chain. It’s an obvious strategy to ask cathode companies to recycle.”
But what if you didn’t need to buy the key minerals to make a battery, and could lease them instead?
This shift in mindset opens new possibilities and commercial models to drive down product costs and incentivise even more circularity throughout the system.
“For example, nickel in a nickel manganese cobalt [NMC] battery cell could be on loan, so you pay only for the time during which you used it. This would end when you return the molecule back to its original owner,” says Pitt.
“We can, with some effort, find more minerals at reasonable grades from the traditional mining process. But it’s actually a going-out-of-business model if you take a long-term perspective and consider declining ore grades and scarcity.
“Instead, we could view the minerals themselves as a perpetual asset, within a closed or near closed system, to be recirculated infinitely. They could generate cash every time they cycle through, eventually becoming a sustainable, long term business model.”
The benefits of a mineral leasing model
Pitt says an opportunity exists to generate longer term recurring revenue streams that move away from a life-of-mine model and to a life-of end product model.
“This would typically enable around 10 years of rental income after virgin material has entered the system before an end-of-life battery returns,” he says.
“Deferred cash flows from a leasing model for the new urban miners would enable them to pass on a lower ultimate cost of product through sub-leasing arrangements, to cathode material, to battery, to EV.
“Over time, overall product costs should reduce as recycled content percentages increase, needing only to recover incremental costs to recycle. This is what the cathode players are already banking on in their closed loop system strategies.”
Pitt says this system should further incentivise increased sustainability of battery products, as the economics of returning minerals for reprocessing will drive the environmental footprint down to the bare minimum involved to reprocess.
“It also offers a different perspective on supply chain security and control,” he says.
“Bans on certain material exports – as we’ve seen recently in China and Indonesia – could be reconceived if the original resource owner remains the owner, even after material has left the border.
“This system is complex and would rely on a deep foundation of trust, to provide visibility and traceability of material flows around the world,” Pitt says. “Thankfully the technology already exists to track which materials go where today.”
Every option will play a role meeting demand for battery materials
As with energy transition being a multi-solution endeavour, Pitt believes there is no single approach to meeting growing demand for battery materials.
“We need to consider every available option,” he says. “There’s a role for greenfield mines. And there’s a role for recycling materials that are already in the system, too.
“The challenge for both traditional and emerging players supplying the battery value chain is how to participate in both greenfield and recycling opportunities in an integrated way.
“Boards should be evaluating the right balance to extract value from today’s linear economy while setting up their business to benefit from tomorrow’s circular economy.”
This article was reproduced with the permission of Worley, a lead sponsor of this year’s IMARC conference and exhibition in Sydney from October 29-31.
190 Metre Antimony Copper Intercept at Bulla Park
West Cobar Metals Limited (“West Cobar”, ASX:WC1) is pleased to advise that assays from the latest drilling of its 100%-owned Bulla Park Copper - Antimony Project (Figure 1), located 110km west of Cobar in New South Wales have shown drill intersections of broad and consistent copper and antimony mineralisation.
Highlights
- Recent diamond drilling confirms a thick zone of antimony copper mineralisation at Bulla Park with structural control from a major WSW trending fault
- Provides further confidence of a large antimony copper system at Bulla Park supporting previous drilling results - 33m at 0.47% Cu and 0.15% Sb (19CA002, 229m to 262m)1
- BPD09 encountered copper - antimony grades up to 1m at 1.04% Cu, 0.55% Sb (204m to 205m)
- Broad intercepts from BPD09 include 190m at 0.23% Cu and 0.08% Sb from 128m
- Selected intersections from BPD09 include 66m at 0.34% Cu and 0.13% Sb, 7g/t Ag from 200m. Also:
- 4m at 0.44% Cu, 0.20% Sb and 7g/t Ag from 131m
- 10m at 0.47% Cu, 0.23% Sb and 9g/t Ag from 200m
- 4m at 0.53% Cu, 0.21% Sb and 10g/t Ag from 223m
- 13m at 0.45% Cu, 0.17% Sb and 7g/t Ag from 239m
- Gravity and aeromagnetic surveys indicate there is potential mineralisation along at least 1.8km of strike, over 350m of horizontal width and drill intersected thicknesses of approximately 60m
- Strong macroeconomic factors for antimony (prices are approx. US$22,700/t) and copper (prices are approx. US$9,300/t)*
- Antimony is on the critical mineral lists of both Australia and the US
- In addition, potential for stratiform massive sulphide silver – zinc - lead mineralisation exists south of the copper - antimony mineralisation
- Additional drilling planned to enable maiden antimony copper mineral resource estimate
West Cobar Metals’ Managing Director, Matt Szwedzicki, commented: “The Bulla Park project is shaping up to have potential for a major copper – antimony – silver deposit. The antimony content is exceptional and with the global prices of antimony trading at nearly 2.5 times the price of copper, it is a good time to have drilled through a major intercept of antimony mineralisation.
We are now planning the next drill program to follow the deposit along strike.”
Figure 1 - West Cobar’s Bulla Park Project exploration licences, interpreted geology and outline limits of aeromagnetic surveys flown.
Mineralisation is dominantly tetrahedrite (copper - antimony sulphide) and minor chalcopyrite and stibnite (antimony sulphide). Antimony grades in all drill hole intercepts are approximately 30% to 35% of the copper grade, reflecting the theoretical composition of tetrahedrite (Cu12Sb4S13).
The mineralisation has developed over several stages. Syn-depositional siderite alteration of Lower Devonian (Winduck Group) silty fossiliferous sandstones is accompanied by chalcopyrite and tetrahedrite. Synsedimentary microfaults and dewatering structures are common indicating a tectonically active depositional and mineralising environment. When subsequently lithified, brittle faulting and fracturing has resulted in siderite-barite stockwork veining and hydrothermal breccias with tetrahedrite as the main copper-antimony mineral. Later faulting is associated with tectonic breccias, massive siderite-barite veins up to 20m thick and tetrahedrite and stibnite crystals filling vughs and veins (Figures 2 and 3).
Click here for the full ASX Release
This article includes content from West Cobar Metals Limited, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
Gold Potential Builds at Black Swan
Poseidon Nickel (ASX: POS, the Company) is pleased to provide an update on the gold exploration programs at Black Swan.
- Reconnaissance soils sampling has identified several gold anomalies
- Anomalies extend over multiple soil traverses (between 400m to 800m) along the interpreted gold bearing structures
- Wilson’s Prospect – several positive coincident attributes established
- A coherent gold anomaly defined (up to 54ppb Au) that is 1.4km by 1km in size and remains open to the south
- The gold anomaly extents capture the locations of the previously announced gold nuggets and anomalous rock chip samples that graded up to 1.25g/t Au in gossanous quartz veins1,2
- Several historical gold drill intersections with assay results >1g/t Au, including 0.4m @ 6.41 g/t Au2, are also located within the anomaly area, despite only 5% of all historical drillhole samples being assayed for gold
- The layered indicators for gold potential at Wilson’s Prospect point to a highly prospective exploration target as evaluation programs continue
- Gold exploration programs underway
- High priority infill soil and further grab sampling programs are underway to better define soil trends at Black Swan. Infill results will be used to optimise drill targets
- At Lake Johnston, maiden reconnaissance soil surveys have been completed across the newly acquired Mantis tenement and submitted for analysis - results awaiting
CEO, Brendan Shalders, commented, “During August 2024 the Company completed a wide spaced reconnaissance soil sampling program across the entire landholding at Black Swan which was assayed for the full suite of elements.
Soil sample assay results have noted four promising gold in soil anomalies. The extents of the anomalies and morphology appear to be tracing the prospective gold bearing structures throughout the geological sequence at Black Swan which have never been systematically tested for gold.
There is little outcrop at Black Swan thus reconnaissance surface geochemical surveys are considered a cost-effective exploration technique to quickly identify areas of gold anomalism. Due to the significant dilution of the soil profile as it is mainly comprised of sands and clays, the gold values recorded are usually only at low levels (ppb). The importance of a gold in soil anomaly is it often presents a vector to a prospective gold system below, and in its original undiluted setting, maybe at much higher grades, hence drilling is required to effectively test the target.
We are particularly excited about the gold targets that are presenting at the Wilson’s Prospect. Results of the separate work programs to date are showing several positive coincident attributes underpinning the prospectivity for the targets. These include the establishment of a large coherent gold in soil anomaly with a footprint that captures the locations of the previously reported gold nuggets, anomalous rock chip samples and historical drilling intersections grading up to 6.41g/t Au.
Despite the historical gold intersections, only 5% of all drillhole samples at Black Swan were assayed for gold. Given the lack of gold assays and the historical focus on nickel, the gold potential at Black Swan has been somewhat overlooked.
High priority infill soil sampling programs are underway to better define drill targets and progress the planning for low-cost shallow drilling programs.
We are also awaiting the results from the Lake Johnston soil programs completed in early September 2024. Once received and interpreted the company plans to continue to undertake additional programs to progress and established any newly identified gold targets within the portfolio.”
Gold in Soil Anomalies at Black Swan
During August 2024 the Company collected 362 soil samples from a wide spaced reconnaissance soil sampling program over the entire Black Swan tenement package on 800m and 400m space traverses with sampling intervals of between 80m and 160m. The soil samples were tested using the UltraFine+ technique identifying four coherent anomalies across the program (refer Figure 1).
Figure 1: Black Swan gold in soil anomalies
Gold assay results from the soil sampling, tabled in Appendix 1, grade up to 54ppb and present four distinct gold in soil anomalies spread across the Black Swan tenements. Importantly these anomalies correlate to the interpreted secondary structural corridors emanating NNE off the larger north striking Mt Monger Fault (see Figure 2 for interpreted location of Mt Monger Fault).
The Black Swan project is situated within the Boorara Geological Domain which hosts a number of gold mines including the nearby Kanowna Belle, Mungarra and Gordon Sirdar projects, as recently announced in ASX announcement “Gold Prospectivity Enhanced at Black Swan and Lake Johnston” re- released 16 August 2024.
Click here for the full ASX Release
This article includes content from Poseidon Nickel Limited, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
MAC President Calls for Renewed Investment, Streamlined Approvals to Move Mining Sector Forward
Pierre Gratton, president and CEO of the Mining Association of Canada, gave his annual address in front of members of the association and the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade on September 17.
He spoke about the opportunities and challenges facing the country's mining industry, saying that while there are areas to improve, he's encouraged to see Canada's federal and provincial governments stepping up to support the sector.
Read on for highlights from Gratton's talk on the state of mining in Canada.
Canada's mineral reserves in decline
Gratton indicated that the challenges faced by the mining industry in recent years have been manyfold, dominated by economic and geopolitical uncertainty, global conflict, fear of climate change and disrupted trade.
Looking at Canada, while inflation and interest rates have come down in recent months, the nation's economy is still weak — Gratton said unemployment is rising, while families are focused on paying down debt.
He also called attention to declining economic growth in Canada, noting that in 2000 the country's productivity was on par with that of Australia; however, today the average Australian is 10 percent more productive. This has caused the Australian economy to grow 50 percent faster than Canada’s in the past 25 years.
Gratton blames a lack of investment in Canada for these declines.
“(There's been) a shortfall in investment principally leading to deindustrialization in many parts of the country, which has cut into the country’s overall prosperity. Manufacturing is half what it was to the economy in 2000. A cornerstone of the Canadian economy, the auto sector and its inputs, aluminum and steel, are at risk,” he said.
Against that backdrop, Canada has shifted from being a leading producer of minerals like copper, nickel and zinc to now lagging. Between 1997 and 2022, the country's copper reserves fell by 9 percent, nickel by 57 percent and zinc by 91 percent. During that time, gold was the only mineral that saw its reserves grow, gaining 110 percent.
“In my time in the sector, I’ve seen several smelters and refineries close and only one open. We’ve lost some head offices. We’ve fallen in our ranking in the production of many minerals and metals, and it leaves us and our allies, including the US and Europe, increasingly dependent on other countries, notably China, for supply,” Gratton said.
He added that according to RBC (TSX:RY,NYSE:RY), it's regulatory uncertainty and taxes that are hindering investment in Canadian mining. Gratton told the audience that these issues persist despite years of promises from the government to improve efficiencies within the permitting system and shorten timelines.
Federal and provincial governments stepping up
Gratton pointed to Canada’s critical minerals strategy as a bright spot for boosting mining sector investment.
The primary component of the initiative involves the implementation a policy that would provide targeted investments and tax incentives while streamlining the regulatory process for critical minerals projects.
While he acknowledged that spending in the mining sector has been rebounding over the past few years, reaching C$13.1 billion in 2022, it's still off from 2012, when the expenditures in the industry reached C$17 billion.
Gratton said the effects of the critical minerals strategy are unlikely to have made their way into the market yet, but conceded that support for the mining sector from federal and provincial governments is unprecedented in his lifetime.
“Mining is now a common topic of policy conversation in Ottawa and provincial capitals in a way that it has never been before. Above all, it’s because I think governments finally understand mining’s unique value proposition as a creator of good jobs and Indigenous employment opportunities, and as a driver of social and economic development in northern and remote regions,” Gratton explained during his speech.
He added that mining is the foundation of the clean energy transition, while also supplying important inputs to the Canadian economy and aiding in the country's national security efforts.
More specifically, Gratton noted that the last three federal budgets have included funding for regulatory measures, streamlining efforts and tax incentives; this came after extensive consultation with the mining sector.
“I will give them credit — the government listened to our concerns and our advice,” Gratton said.
He was pleased to see a joint investment of C$195 million from the BC and federal governments to fund upgrades to highway infrastructure in Northwestern BC that will ultimately support critical minerals development.
What's the future of Canada's mining industry?
Gratton sees a great deal of potential for mining in Canada, but it doesn’t come without challenges.
He mentioned a C$46 billion initiative to fund electric vehicle and battery production and supply chains in the country, including four new battery manufacturing facilities. While he acknowledged that these will be a boon to the Canadian economy, the raw materials demand for the new factories will require 15 new mines.
This will require an investment of C$16.1 billion in mining and an additional C$16.1 billion in midstream processing.
“That’s only speaking from the standpoint of the four battery factories, to say nothing about all of the other needs that our economy requires, or that the US requires, including its defense industries. Unless we achieve the above, and this is the irony, our reliance on foreign sources for minerals and metals is only going to increase,” Gratton said.
He suggested that Canada is too focused on downstream development, and isn’t working to build support for upstream projects that will ultimately provide safe supply of the materials needed.
Additionally, the mining industry is facing a potentially bigger challenge — a lack of workers.
Gratton said unemployment within the mining sector is less than half the national average, and companies can’t find people fast enough. New mining operations will only increase the challenge of finding workers.
He doesn’t want to see a situation where mines are unable to operate because they can’t find enough staff.
Part of the problem is urbanization. Gratton pointed to youth leaving smaller communities and not returning, and an overall lack of excitement about the mining industry at the moment. He said the Mining Association of Canada is going to work with Canada's Human Resources Council over the next few years to develop a strategy designed to increase interest in the mining sector and work with universities, colleges and high schools.
He wants more people to recognize the value of the high-paid, high-tech jobs in Canada’s mining sector.
Overall, Gratton remains positive about mining’s future in Canada. He sees challenges ahead over a changing political landscape, but also recognizes that many issues in the mining sector have become bipartisan.
Moreover, support for the industry is at an all-time high, with 80 percent of Canadians polled by the Mining Association of Canada supporting the industry. With that in mind, Gratton believes that even if there is a change in government, investment and growth in the mining market are gaining momentum.
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
MCA announces Women in Resources award winners
‘Vital to promote diversity and attract the next generation of inspirational leaders’
A former mining opponent, a brilliant materials engineer and a respected leader in the male-dominated offshore drilling space are among the winners of Australia’s 2024 Women in Resources National Awards announced in the nation’s capital this week.
Queensland University of Technology PhD student and BHP portfolio lead Ashara Moore followed up her Exceptional Young Woman in Queensland Resources award earlier this year by taking out the national award.
Group manager of materials and innovation at Western Australia-based Callidus Process Solutions, Dr Evelyn Ng, took out the Maptek Woman in Resources Technological Innovation award.
Head of energy group Woodside Energy’s global wells and seismic arm, Josie Fourie, received the Dyno Nobel Exceptional Woman in Australian Resources award. The winner of the 2024 WA Outstanding Woman in Resources award is a chemical engineer who has spent 25 years in the upstream energy sector, becoming the most senior woman in offshore drilling in Australia.
Moore, Ng and Fourie were among 29 women and four organisations nominated for six awards at the 11th annual Women in Resources National Awards in Canberra, hosted by the Minerals Council of Australia in partnership with the New South Wales Minerals Council, the Queensland Resources Council, the Chamber of Minerals and Energy WA, the Tasmanian Minerals, Manufacturing and Energy Council and the South Australian Chamber of Mines and Energy.
The awards are supported by Women in Mining Network state branches.
Queensland-based Kanae Dyas, workplace support manager at Anglo American, took out the Rio Tinto Inclusion and Diversity Champion in Australian Resources Award.
Nadine Hill, an openpit supervisor at Evolution Mining’s Cowal gold operation in NSW, won The Bloomfield Group Outstanding Tradeswoman/Operator/Technician Award.
Major mining services group Thiess headed four groups who were vying for the Mitsubishi Corporation Development Diversity Programs and Performance Award with its Mt Arthur South Indigenous/Inclusive Trainee Employment nomination.
WA Chamber of Minerals and Energy CEO Rebecca Tomkinson said Fourie and Ng were shining examples of the growing pool of talented women breaking new ground in the resources industry.
“Women comprise a growing proportion of the sector’s work force and they’re not just making up the numbers. In so many instances they are highly respected leaders driving innovation in their fields,” Tomkinson said.
“The industry has a long-standing focus on improving diversity. The benefits of that approach are on full display through the field of hugely impressive finalists selected for the 2024 awards.
“While much work has already been done, boosting female participation – from mine sites and laboratories through to the boardroom – remains a priority for the sector.
“Highlighting the achievements of exceptional women like Josie Fourie and Dr Evelyn Ng is a vital part of continuing to promote diversity and attracting the next generation of inspirational leaders.”
Ng, who started her career with First Quantum Minerals at Africa’s largest copper mine in Zambia, has worked on five continents and in her current role at Perth-based Callidus is said to be the only materials engineer among more than two dozen mechanical engineers in a company with over 300 employees.
Ng leads forensic investigations of plant and machine failures, developing quality assurance specifications, as well as overseeing the group’s R&D and intellectual property.
Two recent Callidus patents – one for a bi-metallic coating system and another involving titanium-nitride surface hardening – are seen to have potential to be game-changers in the mining industry.
Ashara Moore, who wants to change tailings management in mining, admitted in an interview after she won a 2023 Women in Industry Award in Queensland she had gone into a work experience interview with Rio Tinto “morally opposed” to the industry.
She said after early exposure to the industry and then starting her career she came to see it “was trying to do and be better [and] it was a sector that I thought I could make a positive difference within”.
Through her QUT PhD study Moore wants to develop a new carbon reduction technology (CRT) that can help mines cut emissions and positively impact future management of tailings.
“I am pro finding solutions to ensuring that our sector can peacefully co-exist with our environment,” Moore has said.
“Tailings management … is the avenue in which I wish to play my part.
“My PhD study is just one very small, very niche segue toward achieving that goal.
“By targeting mining waste, one of the most substantial potential environmental impactors within industry, and hopefully finding more sustainable and responsible ways of managing this waste, I hope to contribute to the ESG agenda gaining momentum in the sector.
“I am hoping to achieve a new normal about the way we think about tailings waste.”
Last August she presented her preliminary findings to the World Chemistry Conference in the Hague, Netherlands.
IMARC applauds winners of this year’s 2024 Women in Resources National Awards.
So far, more than 130 confirmed speakers at this year’s International Mining and Resources Conference in Sydney are women, ranging in roles from the C-suite through to undergraduate students. IMARC's Balance for Better commitment also includes the working partnerships with industry groups IWIMRA, WISER, WIMnet NSW, WIMARA, to name a few.
IMARC chief operating officer Anita Richards says the large contingent of female speakers reflects the event’s “unwavering commitment to balance for better, an initiative dedicated to promoting equality, diversity, and inclusion throughout the mining sector”.
Copper caught in ‘materials trilemma’
‘The lead time of a normal copper project is already longer than the 11 years we have left until 2035’
Copper is the metal seemingly most stuck in the “materials trilemma” outlined by McKinsey & Company experts as they launched the firm’s first Global Materials Perspective this week.
Facing real challenges on the availability, affordability and sustainability fronts McKinsey senior partner Michel Von Hoey said were shifting uncomfortably for many mining and metals companies, traditional copper production leaders faced acute pressures on their business-as-usual models as they grasped at clear growth opportunities presented by the world’s nascent mobility and energy transitions.
“We still project supply shortages across a number of critical materials if we take a 2035 horizon,” Von Hoey said from Luxembourg.
“We have actually over the last year been stunned by the unexpectedly rapid ramp up of supply of especially lithium and nickel and the rapidly changing battery chemistry mix.
“But demand growth remains very high for some materials and we still expect shortages, notably in copper, lithium, sulphur and rare earths, of somewhere in the neighbourhood of 10-to-50% of demand by 2035.”
Among the few minerals to lag behind 2020-2023 production growth forecasts, the world’s circa-US$200 billion copper sector faced structural supply problems that wouldn’t necessarily be alleviated by new supply from Africa.
A McKinsey Global Materials Perspective webinar heard that while financing capacity in the $4 trillion mining and metals industry was “theoretically sufficient” to support the scale-up to keep 2024-2035 supply in line with projected demand for key commodities, capital deployment remained heavily contingent upon availability of “a sufficient number of profitable and attractive projects” and “investments need to be connected with the right regions, the right players and the right projects”.
“At a global level we estimate that $5.4 trillion of capex will be needed for supply to match current demand outlooks by 2035, or an estimated 10% increase compared to the previous decade,” McKinsey senior metals expert Patricia Bingoto said.
Copper mining and processing capex presents as a $780 billion bucket of that estimated 2024-2035 capex – interestingly about the same as that forecast for thermal coal – behind only the steel (including iron and metallurgical coal) sector.
“We still anticipate shortages for several materials that are key to the energy transition compared to the demand expectations, in particular rare earth elements, lithium, sulphur, uranium, iridium and copper,” Bingoto said.
“We can broadly categorise these materials in two into spaces when it comes to supply-demand balance.
“For materials where timelines for project development are fairly limited the supply demand gap is likely to be closed by further scaling up of supply once the demand signals become strong enough.
“The other broad category is materials for which the supply demand gap is less likely to close through an acceleration of supply scale-up because of long project timelines or limited high-quality reserves and projects.
“In such cases demand adaptation or reduction is expected to take place in order to balance the market.
“Copper fits in this category.”
Metals specialist Gustav Hedengren said higher prices were needed to incentivise new copper, nickel and lithium production to meet anticipated demand, but these were not necessarily going to be enough to stimulate more supply.
“For copper, an approximate 20% percent increase from current prices will likely be required to incentivise sufficient supply to come online,” he said.
“This is only accounting for supply which is announced today.
“There is an opportunity for projects to be announced next year [to deliver production] before 2035.
“But the lead time of a normal copper project is already longer than the 11 years we have left until 2035, so it’s not very likely that you will have a massive announcement of supply over the next couple of years which will be online in 2035.”
The McKinsey webinar heard the increasing capital and emissions-intensity of copper were weights on new supply of the red metal.
“While these materials [metals including copper] are absolute critical enablers [of] the energy transition and the mobility transition, production does give rise to high emissions,” Hedengren said.
“We find that over the next decade these emissions do not decrease by more than a modest 15% in a business-as-usual scenario.”
Von Hoey said cost and capital expenditure efficiency would become more pivotal in the metals and mining space in securing long-term “affordability and competitiveness”.
McKinsey associate partner Michel Foucart said the volume of material to be moved to extract 25 million tonnes of copper was “roughly the same as the amount of material that needs to be moved in the entire iron ore industry, which is a 2 billion tonne market”.
“This is important because what it tells is that the ore grades of energy transition materials [are] typically lower compared to thermal coal or iron ore,” he said.
“You need to put in more energy to actually extract the material.
“This is one of the main reasons why the price levels for these energy transition materials [needs] to be higher.
“The capex intensity of projects tends to increase as ore grades are going down.
“A global average head grade for copper mines went down from 1.8% in the 1970s to around 0.7% in 2022. So the lower ore grade, typically, the higher the capex investment you need for the same amount of output.”
Von Hoey said deeper collaboration between mining and metals companies and their customers, suppliers and stakeholders, including regulators, was needed in an environment in which end markets were evolving fast and a highly capital-intensive industry had to “decarbonise in a context where the business case for decarbonisation is very unclear”.
“Given the uncertainty on demand shifts and technology evolutions, cost and capital efficiency will remain a top priority,” he said.
McKinsey & Company is the Headline Sponsor of IMARC 2024.
Trigg Acquires Ultra High-Grade Antimony Portfolio, Grading up to 63% Antimony
Trigg Minerals Limited (ASX: TMG) ("Trigg" or the "Company") is pleased to announce it has signed a binding purchase agreement with Bullseye Gold Pty Ltd to acquire the ultra-high-grade Taylors Arm and Spartan Antimony Projects in northern NSW (Acquisition) (Figure 1).
HIGHLIGHTS
- Trigg signs a binding purchase agreement to acquire 100% of the Spartan and Taylors Arm Antimony projects in northern NSW after completing due diligence. The projects are in the New England Orogen and are considered highly prospective for antimony ± gold mineralisation.
- Taylors Arm Antimony Portfolio features 71 historical workings on granted EL have produced ultra- high-grade antimony. The portfolio includes:
- Swallows Nest Mine – extracted antimony from 1940 to 1955 at a 40% antimony (Sb) concentration and 30% Sb on reopening in 1972. Recent rock samples revealed extremely high-grade antimony mineralisation with grades of 29.8% Sb and 31.4% Sb1.
- Testers Mine – featured massive stibnite veins grading up to 63% Sb, Australia's highest- recorded antimony grade.
- Little Purgatory Mine – stockpile samples produced antimony with grades up to 27.7% Sb.
- Real McKay Mine – recent exploration identified a stibnite-bearing fault breccia hosting high-grade antimony mineralisation, reporting 15.2% Sb and 52.7% Sb.
- Taylors Arm Portfolio contains various other historical workings/prospects with antimony grades up to 20.6% Sb (Walfords Claim), 27.5% Sb (Neil & Taylors Prospect), 18.3% Sb (Bowraville), and 17.7% Sb (Kia Ore Mine).
- Spartan Antimony Project – immediately adjacent to Larvotto Resources' (ASX: LRV) licences containing its Hillgrove Antimony-Gold operation, covering parts of the Hillgrove Fault and the same rocks that host the Hillgrove deposit.
- Antimony prices are trading at all-time highs following China’s export ban on some antimony products from 15 September 2024.
- Antimony is on the Critical Mineral lists of countries, including Australia, the USA, Canada, Japan and the EU2 due to its defence and military applications.
- Trigg has an established exploration team and is funded to commence exploration activities immediately.
Figure 1: Locations of the Taylors Arm and Spartan antimony projects in northern NSW.
The Spartan Project covers parts of the Hillgrove Fault and the same rocks that host the adjacent Hillgrove Antimony-Gold Mining Operations, owned by Larvotto Resources (ASX: LVR).
The Taylors Arm Project includes Swallows Nest, Munga Creek, and Testers Mines, which have recently produced antimony. The latter features massive stibnite veins grading up to 63% Sb (Table 1), Australia's highest-recorded antimony grade.
The projects comprise one granted tenement (EL 9668—Taylors Arm) and one pending tenement application (ELA 6801—Spartan) across 288km2 of the New England Orogen.
Trigg Minerals Executive Chair Timothy Morrison said, "Trigg's acquisition of ultra-high-grade antimony assets in NSW represents a transformative transaction for the Company, significantly enhancing its strategic resource portfolio. The move into the antimony space positions Trigg to capitalise on the growing demand for the critical mineral and strengthens our market presence. We can achieve a strong foundation for future growth and profitability with successful exploration."
Click here for the full ASX Release
This article includes content from Trigg Minerals Limited, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
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